Another MLB Draft Update - Who Will the Jays Take?

   With the Major League first year player draft a mere three weeks away, the list of prospects has started to settle somewhat, but that doesn't mean we have a clear idea who the Blue Jays will take with their precious two first round picks at 9th and 11th.
   High School pitchers Brady Aiken, Tyler Kolek, and NC State pitcher Carlos Rodon will be long gone when Toronto's turns come.  High Schoolers Catcher Alex Jackson and Short Stop Nick Gordon are not locks to be off the board when those picks come up, but it's less than a 50-50 proposition that they will be.
   After that, it becomes a bit of a roll of the dice.  Collegiate pitchers Aaron Nola and Jeff Hoffman (who will undergo Tommy John surgery), and Short Stop Trea Turner are among several players who have been slotted between about 8 and 12 by most evaluators like Baseball America and Perfect Game.
   While we trust and value the evaluations of these sources tremendously, they are more rankings of athletes than they are an attempt to gaze in the their crystal balls and try to divine the needs and preferences of each team.  And that's where the trouble lies:  many of the players we've seen in those slots to not fit the mode of the players the Blue Jays like to select.
   The  Alex Anthopolous era has seen the club draft players that fit into one of several broad categories:

1.  The premium high school arm that they can dissuade from a college commitment and nurture slowly (Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris);
2.  The toolsy but raw athlete (DJ Davis, Dalton Pompey, and the mercurial Anthony Alford);
3.  The under-the-radar pick who missed time in their draft year due to injury or other reasons (Mitch Nay, Matt Smoral, Andy Burns, Patrick Murphy).
4.  The roll-of-the-dice high risk, high reward type (Marcus Stroman, Rowdy Tellez).

   That may be oversimplifying things, but the above categories represent the majority of players they've drafted and signed in the past four drafts, and we doubt that that strategy will change - say what you will about the lack of depth of prospects in the upper levels of the system, this organization will be a top five one in about another year due to the talent currently plying their trades at the lower levels.

   We've also seen more than one source suggest that the Jays would take another chance at drafting Tyler Beede, who spurned them in the 2011 draft.  We don't see that as a possibility for a couple of reasons:  for starters, the negotiations between the two sides turned quite bitter, and there area likely still very bitter feelings between both, and  Beede still has yet to conquer the command issues that have dogged him since he was a high school senior.  The Jays likely can tolerate that in a high school pick, but not in a supposedly near-finished college product.
    The Jays have been linked to Mississippi HS SS Ti'Quan Forbes, who like his fellow Mississippians Davis and Alford is raw but projectable, although most rankings we've seen have him in the mid-50s.  Again, scouts and organizations view players perhaps through a different lens than do the media, the former of which look at projectability, and how well that player fits their preferred profile, while the latter looks more at performance and projectability.
   As the Ervin Santanna fiasco proved this spring, free agent pitchers prefer to avoid the American League East.  The key to long term success is to build through the draft and develop minor league players who can either stock your major league team, or be turned over in trades to fill specific needs.
   So, we don't know who the Blue Jays will take with either of the first two picks, but we're getting a better idea each week of who they won't pick.

Two Prospects, Two Different Paths of Development Revisited

   A little over a year ago, we compared the development of Tyler Beede and Daniel Norris, the Blue Jays' first and second picks in the 2011 MLB first year player draft.
   Beede, a righthander from Massachusetts, had a reported demand of $3.5 million as a signing bonus.  He and the Blue Jays never really came close in their negotiations, and Beede trundled off to Vanderbilt to begin his collegiate career at Vanderbilt.  Norris, a lefty from Tennessee, was taken with the 74th pick.  His stock had tumbled because of his own commitment to Clemson (some had tabbed him as the best prep southpaw in the draft), but he signed with the Blue Jays for a  reported $2 million.
   The pair struggled in their first seasons.  Starting in the bullpen for Vandy, Beede eventually worked his way into the starting rotation, with command being an issue for much of his freshmand year.  Norris began his pro career at rookie level Bluefield in late June, followed by a mid-summer promotion to Vancouver.  Plain and simply, Norris was hit hard at both stops.  He alternated promising outings with ones where he was rocked after his own struggles with finding the strike zone.
  Almost a year later in 2013, the two appeared headed in drastically different directions.  Beede had shown improved command, and  went on to set a school record for wins in a season. Norris' struggles continued in his first month of full season ball at Lansing, sporting a 10.07 ERA after his first seven starts.  Beede was being called a top 5 pick in the 2014 draft, while some were suggesting Norris was a huge bust.
   And then the tide begin to tip in the other direction.   Norris began to worry less about mechanics, and began to trust his stuff.  His command improved, and he was one of the Midwest League's top pitchers before being promoted to High A Dunedin in late August.
   Fast forward to the end of April, and things look very different.  Beede has had an up and down season, struggling again with his control, with his stock falling - he's gone from being just outside of the projected top draft picks in the draft now to somewhere in the middle to even near the end of the first round.   Norris has simply been electric in his return to Dunedin, picking up where he left off last fall, with likely only pitch count restrictions preventing another promotion to AA.
   So, who's ahead on the development curve?  Last year at this time, it was clearly Beede.  Now, it's a no-doubter that it's Norris.  Beede, as a college junior, has a bit of leverage in negotiations with whichever team drafts him, so there's no guarantee he will sign right away (the signing deadline has been moved from mid-August in 2011 to mid-July now), but if he does, it's likely he will start at low A or even one of the short-season leagues.  And Norris may be at AA by that time.
   Who will reach the major leagues first?  At this point, the smart money would be on Norris.  There still is some debate as to who has the higher ceiling, but it's likely the Blue Jays don't regret not meeting Beede's bonus demand.  Beede spurning their final offer gave them more cash to offer Norris, and they turned the compensation pick they received for not signing him into Marcus Stroman the following year.

Checking Up on Our Top 10

  With the minor league season heading into its sixth week, we thought it was time to take a look to see how our pre-season Top 10 Blue Jays prospects have fared so far.

1.  Aaron Sanchez
   Marcus Stroman may have reached the majors ahead of Sanchez, but he's still right on schedule, with solid numbers at AA New Hampshire.  His stats as of May 7th:

eam	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
NH	EAS	1	1	2.55	7	7	0	0	0	35.1	28	12	10	2	19	29	2.58	.228

   Control has been a bit of an issue, with 4.84 per 9 innings, but over a small sample size that's been influenced by two outings where he walked 4 batters.  On the year so far, he's 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA.  Still on a pitch count, Sanchez has pitched beyond the 6th inning only once.  His last start was unimpressive, and he lasted only 3 innings, but at 21, we should remember that he's still one of the youngest players in AA, and will be be prone to ups and downs.
   With the Blue Jays starting rotation going through a rough stretch over the last half of April, there were calls from many fans to put Sanchez on the next plane to Toronto.  Even though the starters seem to have settled themselves, the club would likely have resisted the call to put Sanchez into the rotation, because he's simply not ready.  He wasn't ready at the start of the year, and he likely won't be ready until some point next year.  Which is not a disappointment, because his ceiling still remains high.
  Here is all you need to know about Aaron Sanchez:  he has induced plenty of weak contact:

2.  Marcus Stroman

   Stroman was labelled by some the most major-league ready of all 2012 draftees.  A 50 game suspension that carried over into 2013 put a stop to that, but Stroman has been as advertised so far this season, and earned a promotion to the Blue Jays.

   

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
BUF	INT	2	2	1.69	5	5	1	0	0	26.2	22	7	5	0	7	36	2.23	.222

   His numbers are indeed impressive.  His last start at AAA was a six inning hitless gem.  Put on an 80 pitch limit in case he was needed to fill Dustin McGowan's turn in the rotation, Stroman walked one and struck out 10.

   Blue Jays fans, of course, were expecting him to be a saviour, but Manager John Gibbons wisely decided to start him in the bullpen.  While there was some talk of Stroman being better suited to the back end of the bullpen, the Jays have stretched him out as a starter over the last two seasons, and some fans were wondering why he wasn't immediately inserted into the rotation.  This tact is not a new one, and was designed to protect the Blue Jays investment in Stroman.  Roy Halladay and Jimmy Key both started their big league careers pitching out of the bullpen, getting comfortable with the environment and making whatever adjustments needed to be made.  Gibbons even used Stroman in a high-leverage situation in Philadelphia, and Stroman came out of it with his first big league W.  Stroman has pitched beyond the start of the 7th inning only a handful of times, and he's a better stablizing presence for the bullpen than he would be for the rotation at the moment. Stroman is only a J.A. Happ meltdown away from joining the rotation just the same. 

3.  Daniel Norris

   Like Sanchez and Stroman, Norris has been as advertised, and had a lights-out April:

eam	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
DUN	FSL	3	0	0.63	6	6	0	0	0	28.2	21	3	2	0	9	36	1.09	.210

   Norris has dominated  Florida State League hitters this year, striking out 10 in 4 2/3 innings in his latest start.  The only thing that is keeping Norris from joining former teammate Matt Boyd in AA is his pitch count, which given his high strikeout totals means that Norris has worked beyond the start of the 6th in only one of his 6 starts so far.

   Norris' turnaround is quite remarkable.  After having considerable difficulty finding the strike zone in his first pro season two years ago, Norris continued to be hit hard last April, causing Baseball America to wonder why someone with such electric stuff could be hit so hard.  Lansing pitching coach Vince Horsman helped turn things around for Norris (as he seems to have done with this year's huge crop of talented pitching prospects) by telling him to forget about his mechanics (which the club had overhauled in his first season), and trust his stuff.  The results have been telling.  Not necessarily a strikeout pitcher, Norris has used his fastball early in the count to set up his change up, which has led to a lot of missed bats so far in 2014.  He has struck out an amazing 32% of the hitters he has faced so far, and few have squared him up:

   Many evaluators had Norris ranked lower than we did on their list of top Blue Jay prospects, and there still is a long way to go before he reaches the majors, but we're feeling pretty justified about having him ranked so high.

4.  Sean Nolin

   Out of the spotlight compared to the three prospects above him, Nolin has put together a solid April:

eam	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
BUF	INT	2	1	2.34	6	6	0	0	0	34.2	28	10	9	1	12	31	1.18	.212

   Nolin's numbers are even better than the ones he posted between New Hampshire and Buffalo last year.  He had the one disastrous start with the Jays at the end of May last year, but if lightning strikes the big club's rotation, he would likely get some serious consideration (along with Buffalo teammate Liam Hendriks) for a call.
   He has recorded more outs by flyballs than have Sanchez and Stroman, and that's always a concern  for a one-day Rogers Centre pitcher. The Jays appear to be keeping Nolin under the 100 pitch limit at Buffalo, but he still profiles as a between #3 and #5 starter who will one day eat up a lot of innings.

 

5.  Kevin Pillar

   Pillar got the call last August, but was overmatched at the plate in his September audition.  Sent back to Buffalo after a disappointing spring, Pillar got off to a poor start, but then reeled off an 18 game hitting streak, over which he hit .405.

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
BUF	INT	.293	30	123	15	36	10	3	0	16	52	9	15	4	2	.341	.423	.764

   

   His poor start likely cost him a promotion to Toronto after Moises Sierra was DFA'd, but his torrid second half of April has to put him back in line for a shot at the fourth outfielder spot, along with Anthony Gose.  

   Pillar has used the whole field this year in AAA:

   Pillar is what he is:  a fourth outfielder type, whose basepaths smarts, bat, and versatility should eventually win him a big league job. We also wouldn't count him out of earning either a platoon or everyday job one day, either. 

6. Roberto Osuna

  Osuna underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of July last year, and will not pitch in a game again for at least another 8 weeks at least.

  Osuna seems to have embraced the fact that he will need to pay attention to his conditioning if he hopes to have a career in pro ball.  There were many concerns about his high maintenance body prior to the surgery.

The difficult thing about predicting success after TJ surgery is that the recovery timeline is very dependent on the individual.  Drew Htuchison and Kyle Drabek underwent the procedure within a few days of each other in 2012, but while Hutch has made a complete recovery and is a mainstay in the Blue Jays rotation, Drabek is still struggling to regain his velocity and command at Buffalo.   

   Osuna threw his first bullpen session off of a mound in late March, and is likely close to the point of being able to pitch in simulated games in extended spring training.  We're not expecting much of anything from him this year, which is not a huge issue, because if had grown up in Canada or the US instead of Mexico, he would be in extended spring training, waiting for an assignment to a short season club.  

7. D.J. Davis

   In his first full season, DJ Davis has had an up and down first month, which as one of the youngest players in the Midwest League is not completely unexpected.

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
LAN	MID	.215	30	121	12	26	7	1	2	18	41	6	49	4	6	.260	.339	.598

  Those numbers don't tell the story as well as those from his last 10 games do:

Date	OPP	AVG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
Apr 29	@DAY	.400	5	1	2	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	.400	1.000	1.400
Apr 30	@DAY	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000
May 01	@DAY	.000	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	.200	.000	.200
May 02	WM	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	.200	.000	.200
May 03	WM	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	.000	.000	.000
May 04	WM	.500	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.500	.500	1.000
May 05	FW	.500	4	1	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	.600	.750	1.350
May 06	FW	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.000	.000	.000
May 07	FW	.400	5	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	1	.400	.600	1.000
May 08	@WM	.000	2	0		0	0	0	0	0	2			.000	.000	.000

  Feast or famine.  As we write this, he's been 0-5 with 4 strikeouts in the West Michigan game.

Davis' toolkit has been lauded wherever he's played.   He was ranked the 2nd best prospect in the rookie level Appalachian League by Baseball America last year.  As the above chart shows, he alternates great nights at the plate with ones where he can't put a ball in play - Davis has struck out in 41% of his plate appearances.  Davis still needs to be more selective, and improve his pitch recognition.  His somewhat long swing generates more misses than a leadoff hitter with his kind of speed should.  

   There is still tremendous upside with Davis, and while the first month numbers are concerning, he's still growing and learning. He may be on the verge of being passed by Dwight Smith Jr and/or Dalton Pompey as the Jays top outfield prospect, but we are still willing to be patient with him.  He is an obvious athlete, who still yet may figure things out at the plate.

8. Andy Burns
   Burns tore through two levels last year, and after a slow start following his promotion to AA, hit .288/.346/.470 for the season, and earned a trip to the Arizona Fall League.  Originally a shortstop, Burns played short and third last year, and then played a variety of positions in the AFL, as the club seemed to envision him as a super utility player.

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
NH	EAS	.205	29	112	13	23	5	1	2	12	36	12	29	7	2	.286	.321	.607

   Burns just recently climbed over .200 after a very slow start.  His .256 BABIP seems to indicate that he's not making solid contact, which has not happened with as much regularity as it did last year.  Eight months ago, we were considering him one of the best position players in the system.  It's still early, but it's hard to think of him in those terms any more.
   

9. Frankie Barreto

    There were thoughts that Barreto might have been challenged with an assignment to full-season ball at Lansing, but with older middle infielders like Dicki Joe Thon, Dawel Lugo, and Jason Lebleblijian ahead of him, the Jays opted to keep Barreto in extended spring training.  Having just turned 18 at the end of February, there's really no need to rush him.  He would have been the youngest player in the MWL otherwise:

Midwest League (A) Glossary - CSV

Rk	Name	Age	Tm	Aff
1	Jake Bauers	18.67	Fort Wayne	SDP
2	Willy Adames	18.75	West Michigan	DET
3	Iolana Akau	18.83	Beloit	OAK
4	Franmil Reyes	18.92	Fort Wayne	SDP
5	Tyler O'Neill	19.00	Clinton	SEA
6	Jamie Westbrook	19.00	South Bend	ARI
7	Ivan Castillo	19.08	Lake County	CLE
8	Javier Betancourt	19.08	West Michigan	DET
9	Jose Chavez	19.08	Beloit	OAK
10	Ronald Herrera	19.08	Beloit	OAK
11	Kean Wong	19.17	Bowling Green	TBR
12	Adrian De Horta	19.25	Fort Wayne	SDP
13	Josh VanMeter	19.25	Fort Wayne	SDP
14	German Marquez	19.33	Bowling Green	TBR
15	Roberto Osuna	19.33	Lansing	TOR
16	Victor Arano	19.33	Great Lakes	LAD
17	David Denson	19.42	Wisconsin	MIL
18	Jose Urena	19.42	Fort Wayne	SDP
19	Dawel Lugo	19.50	Lansing	TOR
20	Alberto Tirado	19.50	Lansing	TOR

   An assignment to short season Vancouver seems the most likely destination for the young short stop.  If The C's are not in the playoff picture (hard to envision) in late August but Lansing is, we could see a promotion at that point.

10. Alberto Tirado

   Another one of the organization's prized young arms in his first year of full season ball at Lansing, Tirado too has been everything the club hoped he would be:

Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
LAN	MID	1	0	2.74	7	3	0	0	1	23.0	20	8	7	2	21	24	1.80	.235

   Tirado was called "a beast in the making," by Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus, and he added that this was the year that Tirado would no longer be flying under the scouting radar.

   It would appear that's becoming  the case.

   The organization has been very protective of Tirado's arm - he averages just over 37 pitches per outing, with his longest being 72 and his shortest just 16.  If Tirado gets in trouble in an inning, the bullpen promptly springs into action.  He has shown good composure on the mound in those situations, striking out the side after loading the bases in one instance.

   At 6', 180, Tirado may not have the long, lean body type that the Jays prefer in a pitcher, but he has the ahtleticsm that shows itself in a clean, easy delivery which he repeats consistently.

   It's only a matter of time before Tirado vaults up this list.  The Jays have something special with this young Venezuelan.