Moving Week in minor league baseball is inching closer.
Sometime in the first two weeks of June, as the minor league baseball season reaches its halfway point, teams begin the process of moving their deserving prospects up to the next level for a greater challenge.
There must be a consensus among the minor league staff involved - from minor league managers and coaches, through to roving instructors, to front office personnel - that the player is ready for the physical and mental challenges that will come with moving up.
Generally speaking, the Blue Jays have demonstrated under the Shapiro/Atkins regime a preference for moving a player up the ladder one step at a time, and having them spend at least a full season (whether that happen over the course of one calendar year or two) at each full season level. There are exceptions, of course, but this is a leadership group that prefers the slow and steady path of development for their top prospects.
And there are other factors that determine whether or not a player gets moved. Having an open roster spot is an issue - sometimes, there just isn't room for a player at the next level.
Having said all of that, it just doesn't look like there will be a lot of movement in the system this season. The injury to Reese McGuire of New Hampshire created an opening for the most likely promotional candidate, Danny Jansen, just over a week ago. Other than that, it's hard to see many other players making a move. The strength of this system lies in its players at the lower levels, and while teams want to make sure their players are challenged, there's no need to rush many of them just yet.
Still, that won't stop us from making a few educated guesses.....
Conner Greene When spring training breaks and players are assigned to minor league teams, they're given a list of things to work on during the season. Greene's list no doubt included continuing to harness that electric fastball, which has topped 100 mph several times this spring. And on that count, he's been inconsistent so far this season, walking 25 in 52 IP at New Hampshire.
Still, the time may be coming for the 2013 draftee (and made 12 starts for the Fisher Cats last year), who must be placed on the 40-man roster this November, to move up. When he's at his best, Greene commands the lower part of the strike zone with his moving two-seamer, and uses the four-seamer up in the zone to finish hitters off late in the count. His 64.5% ground ball rate leads the Eastern League, demonstrating that while that latter gets the acclaim, it's the former that gets most of his outs.
Greene's next-to-last start against Portland was a microcosm of his season so far. His command was spotty, walking the lead off hitter, who scored two batters later. In the third, he retired the side in quick fashion with a pair of gb outs and a swinging K. After receiving the toss from 1B Ryan McBroom to retire the hitter at 1st in one inning, he slammed the ball to the ground in obvious frustration after recording the out - something that may have made it into Manager Gary Allenson's post-game report.
With the shuffling in Buffalo's rotation, there may be room for Greene on the Niagara Frontier just the same, and the Blue Jays may decide to challenge him with a promotion there.
Bo Bichette The initial campaign of full season ball is a huge adjustment for most players. Not only must they deal with the physical and emotional challenges of playing every day, they need to learn to take care of their bodies and personal affairs off the field. Add in experiencing failure for perhaps the first time in their baseball lives, 8-hour bus rides, and doing it all far from home and family, and it can be a difficult time for some players, which is why many organizations are content to let their top prospects ride things out and spend a full season in Low A.
But it's becoming harder to see the 2016 2nd rounder spending a whole season at Lansing.
After an April in which he hit .371, Bichette has not cooled off in May, hitting .383. He leads the Midwest League in Average, Runs, and Slugging and is 2nd in Doubles and OBP. His 31.6% Line Drive rate leads the loop as well. Heady stuff for a player in just his second year of pro ball.
Among the list of things Bichette has had to work on, of course, is his defence. He has split time between SS and 2B, with the organization no doubt wanting to improve his range (which is at least adequate) and his arm strength (which is accurate, but still fringy). Bichette has good reactions to batted balls, but we're going to have to give him some time to see if he can consistently make that throw from the hole at SS. Cavan Biggio is the incumbent 2B at Dunedin, so Bichette might not be able to split time between the two up-the-middle positions, and he may stay at Lansing as a result.
At 19, while he's still one of the youngest players in the MWL, his mastery of Low A pitching may prompt the Blue Jays to send him to Dunedin for a greater challenge.
An AB from Opening Weekend.....
Justin Maese Without as much fanfare as a couple of his higher profile teammates, Maese is putting together a solid season at Lansing. A May 24th 7-inning complete game in which he fanned 12 and walked none, might be the most compelling demonstration of his growing domination of MWL hitters.
Maese quite simply fills the strike zone, using his two-seamer to induce a great deal of weak contact. In his late May start, 71 of his 97 pitches were thrown for strikes. He does give up some contact, but as he refines his command, he is becoming tougher to barrel up.
Last year, in only his second pro season, Maese skipped a level to play in Vancouver, and finished the season with Lansing. He is approaching a full calendar year with the Lugnuts, and the organization may want to move him on to the next level.
Bradley Jones Like Maese, Jones has not received the acclaim his teenaged fellow infielders have received, but he has popped up on the prospect radar as a legitimate bat.
Jones is among the MWL leaders in Slugging and Total Bases, slashing .324/.389/.568 so far this season, demonstrating an advanced approach at the plate. If there was a concern about his production at the plate prior to this season, it would have to have been pitch recognition and working counts better. He has done an outstanding job of that, and it wouldn't be going too far out on a limb to suggest that he has the best approach in the Lansing lineup.
A 1st Baseman last year, Jones was told to pack a collection of gloves for the move to Michigan, and he's split time between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd this year. His reactions on groundballs are better than had been anticpated, but his arm still is somehere in the fringy range. But that almost doesn't matter - the bat will play.
Turning 22 next month, it may be time to move Jones up to Dunedin.
Jones at the plate in early April:
Beyond that, it's hard to see much movement next month. Fans have been clamoring to see top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr moved to the next level, but there is absolutely no need to rush him. Had he been born stateside, he would be preparing for next month's draft. Rapid ascension is likely in his future, but not this year. Anthony Alford would have been a good candidate to move to Buffalo next month, but his wrist injury has taken care of that. Upon his return from a successful rehab, it's possible we see him with the Bisons in August if they're in a playoff hunt.
It's often easy to overlook a player. Bradley Jones was an 18th round pick out of the College of Charleston last June, and it was easy to peg him as a bat-first, limited defensively player. Certainly, Baseball America was not a huge fan of his overall game:
Jones draws some comparisons to former College of Charleston teammate Carl Wise--a fourth round pick by the Blue Jays last June--but his tools aren't quite as loud. He was some versatility, actually playing shortstop over the summer, but he's been primarily a first baseman and corner outfielder for the Cougars. Jones has above-average power and hit 11 home runs this spring but is a free swinger, and the Cougars' home ballpark helps hitters. Jones is a low motor player with mostly average tools and has the look of a utility type with power.
After hitting 6 Home Runs in his first month at Bluefield, it was easy to suggest that as a college player, Jones was a bit advanced for that level. In fact, I was surprised that he didn't start in Vancouver, but Christian Williams, who was taken in the 16th round a year earlier, was ahead of him on the 1st Base depth chart.
Jones took off in August, hitting 9 Home Runs, en route to leading the Appy League in Homers, RBI, Total Bases, and Slugging. That made him worth another look, but with two similar players ahead of him in the system in Rowdy Tellez and Ryan McBroom, Jones was not a player to be included in any top prospect discussions. He was nowhere to be found in BA's Top Appy Prospects list and accompanying chat.
Fast forward to this month, and that's all beginning to change.
Jones, who went to Charleston as a shortstop, also played the corner outfield spots in college, in addition to 1st Base. At instructs last fall, he spent considerable time at 2nd and 3rd in order to enhance his versatility. That has allowed Lansing Manager Cesar Martin considerable flexibility this year to get Jones' potent bat into the Lugnuts lineup on a daily basis. And that's paid off in spades, as Jones trails teammate Bo Bichette in Midwest League hitting, and he's near the top in most offensive categories.
More importantly, after hitting mostly 6th in the opening games of the season, he's settled in at the 5th spot, providing protection in the lineup for his former Bluefield teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Jones has played 1st, 3rd, 2nd, and seen time at DH as he's mashed his way to a 1.219 OPS through the first two-plus weeks of the season.
At the plate, Jones has a balanced approach. Using only a slight leg kick, his bat drifts back slowly, and he brings his hands in tight to his body, getting his bat through the strike zone in time to consistently barrel up balls.
h/t to @JaysBoard for the video...
A concern has to be a swing that can be long, creating a swing-and-miss element (27.7% K rate last year, 28.6% so far this year), he is showing some improved plate discipline:
Clutchlings video/Youtube
Defensively, Jones is at least adequate at the moment, and will likely improve with experience. Not blessed with great speed, he has decent reactions to the ball, but has something of a crossfire throw, which allows him to unload the ball quickly after a smooth transfer, but he doesn't get a lot on it:
Clutchlings video/Youtube
While Jones has been feasting on pitching in the low minors, the truer test of his bat-to-ball skills will come when he reaches High A and then AA. Pitchers at those levels will have sharper command of their fastballs, and more effective secondary pitches. For the moment thought, even though he's overshadowed by teammates Guerrero Jr and Bichette, Jones has become arguably the most dangerous bat in the Lansing lineup. He leads the Midwest League in hits and Runs Batted In, is tied for 1st in Homers, and is 2nd in Average and Slugging. While there is some question as to where Bichette and Guerrero ultimately wind up on the field, Jones appears to be profiling as a super-utility guy, capable of playing a multitude of positions. The three should continue to move up the system ladder together, and it's time we start talking about Jones more as a result.
Teenagers Bichette and Guerrero may have more remaining projection and potentially higher ceilings than the soon-to-be (in June) 22 year old Jones, but he is already proving his worth to the organization.
It was a beautiful day in Central Michigan Saturday as the Lansing Lugnuts opened their home Midwest League season at Cooley Law School Stadium in the State Capitol. 24 hours before the area -like much of Southern Ontario - had seen snow, and remnants of it could be found along I-69 after crossing the Bluewater Bridge at Sarnia, but conditions were perfect for spring baseball.
The Lugnuts were playing a return engagement with the nearby Great Lakes Loons, who the Lugs had swept a doubleheader from the night before (the opener on Thursday had been a victim of the storms sweeping the Midwest).
Lansing has a diverse lineup of players mostly new to full-season ball, with a roster comprised of products of the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and 13 different states in the U.S. - but, surprisingly, no Canadians, with as many as four of them on the roster last year.
A guy making the drive across the border was treated to a gorgeous day (as was the following day), with a good view of batting and infield practice, a street party introducing the players and new team logo prior to the game, and a clear (if not quickly cooling) April sky as the 6 pm game time approached.
I am not a scout, and while decades of playing, watching, and studying the game have given me the ability to do a reasonable impression of one, I encourage you to corroborate the following opinions with a real, live version of one.
Here are some notes from my weekend.....
P Patrick Murphy Few players on the field have struggled through as much adversity as the Arizona RHP has. Blue Jays scout (now cross-checker) Blake Crosby was in Chandler, AZ (a suburb of Phoenix) in 2012 scouting 3B Mitch Nay, who the Blue Jays took as a sandwich pick that June. He was intrigued by Murphy, who was a junior on the Chandler team. Just prior to the state playoffs, Murphy tore his UCL in a pre-game warmup (although he went on to pitch a complete-game shutout). He sat out his senior season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays still felt encouraged enough about his long-term prospects to take him in the 3rd round that year (2013).
Clutchlings Photo
Murphy did not make his pro debut until 2014, and he only made three appearances that season before being shut down with an injury. He was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, and underwent surgery to remove a rib that was pinching a nerve, leading to arm numbness. In addition, he had a different nerve removed from his elbow; everything added up to costing him all of the 2015 season.
Murphy didn't return to action until May of last year - a total absence of 671 days. He pitched well in short outings for Lansing, but was sent down to Vancouver when their season opened in June. After C's ace Justin Maese was promoted to Lansing a few weeks later, Murphy took over the role of Vancouver's top starter, and later was named the Northwest League's 12-best prospect by Baseball America for his efforts.
The 6'4/220 Murphy looks every the part a pitcher, and he has the build of a starter, a potential innings-eater. He throws a fastball, curve, and change. Murphy needed only 12 pitches to get through the first inning, sitting between 88-91, and hitting 92 with his FB. He did give up a pair of hard-hit balls, one of which dropped in for a single.
In the 2nd, Murphy showed the effects of a long bottom of the first in which his teammates put four runs on the board. The first five pitches he threw were balls; his 7th was a double laced down the LF line, putting runners on 2nd and 3rd with none out. Both runners eventually came in to score, but Murphy unleashed his curve that inning, a frame in which he needed 18 pitches and a nifty play by converted 2nd Baseman Bradley Jones for Murphy to get out of.
The 3rd inning was a coming out party for that curve. Murphy was able to command both sides of the plate with his fastball, getting ahead of the hitters, then dropping Uncle Charlie in for strikes. With his over-the-top delivery, Murphy gets good tilt and a 12-6 action on his curve, and even when hitters sat on it in this game, the movement and downward action on it were so effective that they were not able to make solid contact with it. He did give up a Home Run that inning on a fastball that caught too much of the plate - with its high outfield walls, Cooley is usually a pitcher-friendly park, but with the breeze blowing out to center field that night, 4 long balls were hit.
Murphy threw 11 pitches in the 3rd, 13 in the 4th, and only 8 in the 5th, his shortest of the night. He began to rely on the curve more, throwing the occasional change, to miss a number of bats. Murphy did give up a lead off double, followed by an infield single to the hole that Bo Bichette showed good range to simply get to, but his throw was no where near strong enough to get the runner at first. Jones started a neat double play to get the first two outs of the inning.
Back out for the 6th at 62 pitches, Murphy struggled due to some likely fatigue, and some long innings while his teammates plated more runs. After giving up a double, single, run-scoring double, and another single, Murphy was done for the night. After pitching mostly effectively through the first 5, Murphy was squared up that inning, even though he hit 95, and sat 91-93. After waging a mostly winning battle with his fastball all night, his command had clearly deserted him that inning.
On the night, Murphy gave up 9 hits in 5 innings, along with 6 runs (all earned). He walked one and fanned four. Murphy threw 78 pitches, 51 of them for strikes - he was pitching from behind for much of the night, throwing only 11 first-strike pitches to the 24 hitters he faced. Murphy recorded 6 outs via ground balls, and 3 by fly balls.
While he had difficulties with his command on the night, his curve is emerging as a wipeout pitch. The Blue Jays are likely hoping that his command will improve as the season progresses and the weather warms up, which will make his curve that much more effective a weapon.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr Much has been made of the cream of the 2015 international free agent crop. After only one short season of play, the son of the future Hall-of-Famer has become the Blue Jays top prospect, and a Baseball America cover boy.
During batting practice, Guerrero demonstrates an easy, loose swing that generates tremendous power at the tender age of 18 due to his bat speed, and thick, solid lower half. As he gets older and becomes stronger, it's easy to project that power up even more. He shows good judgement at the plate, seldom expanding his strike zone.
In the field, he has been described as an adequate defender since being switched to 3rd last year. His stocky build does limit his range somewhat, but he does have quick reactions to the ball, and his arm is at least average. He may not remind anyone of Brooks Robinson, and his ultimate position may be across the diamond, but Guerrero shows enough at the hot corner to remain there for the short and medium-term future.
On the bases, Guerrero may not be a speed demon, but he gets down the first base line well, and is a smart and sometimes aggressive baserunner. He won't get any faster as he ages, but it's hard to see him becoming a base clogger.
Guerrero walked on four pitches to load the bases in his first AB on Saturday. He lined up a single on the middle in his second, and flew out softly to right in his third. Coming up for the fourth time in the 6th, Guerrero drilled a pitch down the left field line for a two-out double, then lined out to right in his final plate appearance.
Guerrero has said that he wants to be in the majors by the time he is 20, and while the team no doubt wants to take their time with his development, he is only going to get better and better. His final place on the field may be in question, but there is no doubt that his bat will soon play.
As much as we are all in something of a rush to see this kid reach the big leagues, he still has some growing to do. He may not dominate the Midwest League, mainly because if the rest of the league shows a disinclination to throw him fastballs anywhere near the strike zone like the Great Lakes' pitchers did all weekend, he's just not going to put up ridiculous numbers unless he gets some support behind him in the lineup. If he had been raised stateside, he would be a high school senior, and a likely first overall pick in June. The Blue Jays in all likelihood will be patient with him, and let him continue to develop his all-around game.
He'll be worth the wait, friends.
Bo Bichette The Blue Jays scored something of a coup by taking the Florida high schooler with their second of two second round picks last June. Bichette laid waste to GCL pitching last summer, scorching his way to a .427/.451/.732 line despite missing a month of the season with appendicitis (Bichette hinted that missing so much time was not his idea, but the Blue Jays had 1.1 million reasons for being cautious with him). Despite that small sample size, he was ranked the GCL's 4th best prospect by BA, and the Blue Jays's 8th by MLB Pipeline.
Prior to the draft, there was some concern about Bichette's hitting mechanics. With a high back elbow and an extreme bat wrap to trigger his swing, some thought pro pitchers might exploit him on the inner half.
So much for that.
The Blue Jays did little to change his mechanics last year, but the wrap has been quieted down this year. He still makes consistently hard contact, and his BP prior to the home opener was a sight to behold. His older brother Dante Jr tore up the GCL in his first pro season, and has mostly struggled at the plate ever since, but Bo is clearly cut from a different mould. He can work a count, but he can also jump on a first-pitch fastball like he did in this At Bat:
In the field, the Blue Jays seem content to let Bichette play mostly shorstop, even with the presence of a superior defender in Yeltsin Gudino on the roster. Bichette has good reactions to the ball, and even though few were hit to him over the course of the first weekend of play, he showed solid instincts when he tracked a grounder to the hole between 3rd and 2nd, but skipped his throw to first in a vain attempt to nab the runner. In pre-game practice, Bichette showed a great work ethic, fast-twitch reflexes, but only an average arm. That long throw from the hole may continue to be a challenge. There is still room for improvement, but like Guerrero at 3rd, it's hard to see Bichette staying at SS in the long-term. He will be a bat-first player wherever he ends up.
J.B Woodman Taken a few picks ahead of Bichette, the collegian was ranked the 6th best Northwest League prospect by BA last year. Scouts noted the amount of hard contact he made on both fastballs and off-speed pitches. If there's one nagging concern from last year, it's the 72K's in just under 200 ABs, and while Woodman works the count in most of his plate appearances, there appears to be a fair amount of swing and miss to his game - in the first four games of the season, he fanned at least twice in each contest. Woodman's swing can be a bit long, which probably contributes to his misses.
While is still is early, it will be interesting to see if Woodman can make more contact as the season progresses.
In the outfield, Woodman covers a good amount of ground, and the lasers he threw during pre-game practice show why some scouts suggest he profiles as a right fielder.
Bradley Jones Overshadowed by his younger teammate Guerrero last year, Jones led the Appy League in Home Runs. He underwent a position change last fall at Instructs, trading his 1st Baseman's mitt for an infielder's glove. Jones started the first game of the year at 2nd, and the next game at 3rd. In the first, he started a nifty 4-unassisted-3 double play, and in the 2nd, made a nice play on a slow roller and fired across the diamond to retire the hitter.
Jones does have something of a side arm throwing motion, and while that allows him to unload the ball quickly, it doesn't always result in the strongest of throws. Jones played outfield in college, so perhaps the Blue Jays are trying to develop him as a super-utility player. Just the same, that bat will play, and he actually was one of the better defensive Lugnuts on the weekend.
At the plate, Jones demonstrated the patience that was prevalent throughout the Lugnuts' lineup, going 3-5 on Sunday and launching a Home Run to left center. He has a swing-and-miss aspect to his offence, but with Woodman, Bichette, and Guerrero, he should become part of a gauntlet of sluggers in the middle of the Lansing order.
Nash Knight I admit to having a huge preference for the underdog. Undrafted out of Dallas Baptist (Ryan Goins' Alma Mater), he joined the organization in 2015, and mashed his way to a .402/473/.588 line at Bluefield before earning an August promotion to Vancouver last year.
Despite those gaudy numbers last year, Knight is still very much an org guy - a minor league roster filler. In an attempt to build some versatility, he was converted to Catcher last fall at Instructs, but with the depth of the system at that position (Ryan Hissey returns to Catching duties this year, joined by Michael De la Cruz, who was with the team in 2015), he played 1st on Opening Day, and probably won't see much action behind the plate this year unless injuries dictate otherwise.
During pre-Opening Day BP, even with Bichette, Guerrero, Woodman, and Jones blasting bombs, Knight's show was perhaps the most impressive. He was hitting line drive rockets all over the field. At 24, the clock on his chances of an MLB career is ticking close to midnight, but it was fun to watch that BP session.
Zach Jackson Many have suggested that last year's 4th rounder could be on a fast track to the big club. There's a lot to like - a FB that hits 94, and a funky delivery that creates deception and allows him, like Murphy, to get on top of a 12-6 curveball, his go-to pitch. In fact, Jackson even admitted that he used it sparingly at Vancouver last year,
Jackson took over from Murphy in the 6th, and retired the side on five pitches to limit the damage, fanning the last batter on a pair of nasty 81 swing-and-whiff hooks. In his next inning, he retired the side in order again, topping 94, and sitting 88-91 with a mix of an 84-85 change and that curve ball.
Back out again for another inning of work in the 8th, he gave up a leadoff Homer, followed by a walk and a double before his night was brought to an end. Clearly gassed, he was dominant for his first two innings. If there's one concern about Jackson, it's that lefties appear to be able to square him up solidly. Either another pitch or improved location will be necessary for him to get them out on a more consistent basis. Still, as his stamina builds this year, he should add a tick or two to his FB, which will make his curve even more devastating. He's profiling as one of those max effort, lights-out guy in short stretches.
Cesar Martin When we think of the minors, we tend to think of young players in terms of prospects. What's easy to overlook is that sometimes MLB teams are grooming future Managers and Coaches as well. And that may be the case with Martin (say Mar-teen), who joined the Blue Jays organization as an 18 year old almost two decades ago. Martin played briefly in the system, and has been an instructor at various levels for several years.
For the last two years, he managed the highly successful GCL Blue Jays entry, so moving up to Lansing was a natural fit. Martin has been described as a quiet guy with a laid-back approach, but is able to get through to his players. From his interactions with them before the game, it's obvious that he already has a good rapport with them, and has their respect.
There is no guarantee of an MLB job for minor league players, and the same holds true for Managers and Coaches. For many, their value to their respective organizations lies in their abilities to develop players, and while he may be a Managerial prospect on the rise in his own right, Martin may fit that profile. ******************************************************************************** There are few commodities in minor league baseball more dispensable than the long reliever.
Generally speaking, relievers at the big league level are converted starters - for every Aaron Loup that comes up through the system in a relief role, there's Ryan Tepera, Joe Biagini, Roberto Osuna, or Matt Dermody who moved into the bullpen from the rotation at some point during their MiLB apprenticeship.
The minor league long reliever's main job is to protect the high-profile arms in the starting rotation. Once they have reached their pitch limits, the long man comes in to soak up innings. Early in the season, when the pitch counts are in the 60-80 range (depending on the starter), the long man typically comes in during the fifth or sixth innings, and most Managers try to use them for multiple innings. It's understandable - the more relievers he has to use on any given day, the fewer he'll have at his disposal the following one
Minor league long men tend to be non-drafted free agents, often the college variety. They're guys who have proven that they can get hitters out, but either lack the velocity or secondary pitches to turn over a lineup, hence their move to the bullpen.
Jackson Lowery was one of those guys. A teammate of Zach Jackson's at Arkansas, Lowery took the long route to pro ball. Originally an infielder when he attended Central Arkansas after high school, he transferred to a Mississippi Junior College in order to pitch. The following year, he realized a dream when he caught on with the Razorbacks. Even though he was a mainstay in the Arkansas 'pen in 2015 in long relief, because he was viewed as undersized at 6'/170, he was overlooked in the draft.
Signed by the Blue Jays, he pitched well in rookie ball at 2015, and Saved 11 games between Vancouver and Lansing last year. I had thought that he was ticketed for Dunedin this year, but he became a victim of a numbers game, as the Blue Jays had too many bullpen arms for A ball. Lowery went to Australia to pitch for Canberra in the off season, but was used sparingly, and was overmatched against the more advanced hitters.
Every year, I manage to convince one of the Blue Jays prospects sent to Australia to correspond with me over the winter. Last year, it was Phil Kish, this past year it was Lowery. Both were relievers who were sent to Australia to get some extra innings in the hope that it would accelerate their development. To be honest, they were also sent there probably to protect some of the more valued bullpen arms in the organization. Lest we say we spot a trend here, Anthony Alford also carried on a correspondence with me the year before Kish.
Kish was released in spring training last year, and Lowery was let go at the end of spring training this year. Both had some decent seasons, and both filled important roles for the teams they played on, but in the end, the front office felt that they were bumping their heads against their respective ceilings, and with other arms coming up from the levels below them every year that throw harder or have better secondaries, they became odd men out in the process.
I appreciate the insights into baseball, pitching, and life in Australia that both players shared. Both were, in the words of Pat Jordan in his lyrical A False Spring, "the boy who went away": players who may not have realized their major league dreams, but came much closer to them than the rest of us did. Kish is already well into an accounting career that he had started in the off seasons during his playing days; Lowery has not indicated if he'll try to catch on with another organization, find an indy ball team, go back to school, or transition to the working world. Whatever he chooses, I wish him well.
Even though a snow squall is currently obliterating the view out my family room window onto my backyard this blustery Sunday Southern Ontario morning, there is light at the end of the tunnel - Minor League Opening Day is about 90 days (or so) away.
So that means it's time to call up Baseball Reference, grab a yellow legal pad, sharpen some pencils, and try to project the rosters of the Blue Jays four full season minor league teams.
Starting at the bottom, we have the Lansing Lugnuts, of the Low A Midwestern League. These are exciting times in the Michigan city - this past off season, they renewed their Player Development Contract with the Blue Jays for two years, a new 2000 sq ft special events venue in the outfield opens this season, and a three-story/84-unit apartment complex opened along the centrefield wall last August. To top it off, Lansing may have the best collection of projected talent in the system this year, including 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who at 17 may already be one of the best prospects in all of baseball.
In the process of constructing these rosters, I've looked at the performance of players on teams below them the previous season. It's usually customary to advance one rung at a time up the full season ladder, but complicating the job of building Lansing's 2017 roster is that there are players from three levels (Vancouver, Bluefield, GCL Blue Jays) to consider.
At best, these rosters are educated guesses, and there is considerable information unavailable to the average fan about team's plans for their players this season. As well, spring training can largely dictate where a player lands that season - Rowdy Tellez seemed ticketed for another half season with Dunedin at the close of spring training last year, but his maturity and strike zone management persuaded the organization to accelerate his development, and he more than responded to the challenge.
Like MLB teams, minor league clubs can have no more than 25 players on their active rosters. At times, they can be creative with their 7-Day disabled list, in order to facilitate one or two more players for a brief period of time.
I have included each player's age (as of January 1st, 2017), 2016 team(s), and relevant stats. Catchers
Position
Player
Age
2016 team
Ave/OBP/Slug
C
Javier Hernandez
20
Vancouver
.215/.291/.313
C
Matt Morgan
20
Bluefield
.179/.313/.286
Hernandez is already possibly the best defensive Catcher in the organization, although his bat has been slow to develop. Morgan has shown very little since being a 4th round pick two seasons ago. He may be in competition with Bluefield teammate Ridge Smith, a 12th round pick last year.
Infielders
Position
Player
Age
2016 team
Ave/OBP/Slug
1B
Christian Williams
20
Vancouver
.236/.341/.340
2B
Cavan Biggio
21
Vancouver
.273/.371/.349
2B/SS
Bo Bichette
18
GCL Jays
.427/.451/.732
SS
Yeltsin Gudino
19
Vancouver
.226/.338/.258
3B
Bryan Lizardo
19
Vancouver
.220/.284/.333
3B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr
17
Bluefield
.271/.359/.449
UT
Deiferson Barreto
21
Vancouver
.215/.259/.333
DH
Bradley Jones
21
Bluefield
.291/.336/.578
This will be an exciting group. Guerrero is the obvious standout, but Biggio, and Bichette (whose first year of pro ball was a smashing success, despite missing a month due to appendicitis), and Appalachian League Home Run leader Jones will mean that this is a club that should produce some runs. Bichette may split time with Gudino and Biggio, and the only reason that he may start the season in Vancouver in June instead of Lansing in April is to give him more playing time at Extended.
Outfielders
Position
Player
Age
2016 team
Ave/OBP/Slug
OF
Joshua Palacios
21
Vancouver
.330/.397/.426
OF
J.B. Woodman
22
Vancouver
.297/.391/.445
OF
Jake Anderson
24
Lansing/Van
.199/.260/.290
OF
Reggie Pruitt
19
Bluefield
.237/.316/.266
Palacios and Woodman were promoted to Lansing in late August, and both more than held their own against MWL pitching. Anderson, the prodigal 2011 compensation round pick, made his return to competition last year after being limited to only 73 At Bats from 2013 to 2015 because of injury. He began the season with Lansing, but finished with Vancouver, and didn't see a whole lot of strikes in his time in the Northwest League. Pruitt, the 2015 23rd rounder whose draft stock dipped because of a college commitment, re-tooled his swing at Instructs last fall, and may be a spring training surprise. If he isn't, Rodrgio Orozco (.241/.348/.289 at Vancouver last year), Norberto Obeso (.316/.441/.408 in the GCL), or Lance Jones (.325/.486/.429 at Bluefield) may fill out the roster.
Starting Pitchers
Position
Player
Age
2016 team
WHIP/K/9/BB.9
SP
Justin Maese
20
Van-Lansing
1.14/7.0/1.6
SP
Patrick Murphy
20
Lansing-Van
1.46/6.8/3.7
SP
T.J. Zeuch
21
Van-Lansing
1.12/10.1/1.9
SP
Yennsy Diaz
20
Bluefield
1.53/7.7/4.8
SP
Jose Espada
19
Bluefield
1.23/.5.4/2.0
The top end of this rotation can probably match any in the MWL. Maese, a 2015 3rd rounder, reached Lansing last summer in only his second season of pro ball, while Murphy, whose own injury woes kept him sidelined him for almost two years, made a strong comeback in 2016, and was Vancouver's top pitcher. Zeuch, Toronto's top pick in last year's draft, gives Lansing a formidable 1-2-3 set of starters. Beyond that, it's a toss-up. Diaz impressed in the Appy League last year, but had some command issues, and Espada, after a solid pro debut in 2015, didn't miss as many bats when he moved up a level last year. Some dark-horse candidates to make the rotation may include Wilfri Aleton, who fanned almost a batter per inning in the GCL last year, Juliandry Higuera, who has spent most of the last two seasons with Bluefield, or even Maximo Castillo, who pitched as a 17 year old in the GCL last summer. Luis Sanchez made 12 starts for Vancouver last year, and may fill out the back end of the Lansing rotation if the other candidates don't prove to be ready.
Relief Pitchers
Position
Player
Age
2016 team
WHIP/K/9/BB.9
RP
Jackson McClelland
22
Vancouver
1.35/7.4/3.0
RP
Griffin Glaude
24
Van-Lansing
1.32/10.2/4.2
RP
Zach Jackson
22
Vancouver
1.42/6.1/11.7
RP
Jackson Lowery
24
Van-Lansing
1.13/8.7/2.5
RP
Jared Carkuff
23
GCL Jays-Van
1.01/12.5/1.4
RP
Geno Encina
22
Van-Lansing
1.03/9.0/1.6
This is probably the hardest group to predict. Jackson may be the most notable name of the group. Owner of one of the best curveballs in the system, he may not be in Lansing long. A few names who might elbow their way into contention for a spot include Travis Bergen (limited to 5 innings last year), Conner Eller (7 Saves for Bluefield, 8.6K/9 for Bluefield in 2016), or Vancouver relievers Gabe Noyalis, Grayson Huffman, or Evan Smith. Despite the uncertainty of its makeup, the bullpen may be one of its strengths.
The 2016 Lugnuts promise to be one of the better editions of the team in recent years, although their pitching depth may be a concern. With Lansing just over a 4 hour drive from the Greater Toronto Area (there are no plans as of this moment to stream the Lugs' home games over milb.tv), the trip may be well worth your while this year.
