Dunedin Blue Jays Catcher Danny Jansen hit a pair of Home Runs in the same inning on Sunday, and announced his arrival as the Blue Jays Catcher of the Future.
The two long balls were part of a 4-5, 11 total bases day at the plate for the Appleton, WI native, who leads the Florida State League in hitting with a .394 average, and is in the top five in most offensive categories. More impressively, he puts the ball in play, (8.8% K rate this year), and his 25% line drive rate shows evidence of hard contact. It's a small sample size, but a viewer of Dunedin's three game series against the Pirates' Bradenton affiliate this weekend saw a lot of hard-hit balls off of Jansen's bat. His power is mostly to left, but Jansen uses the whole field.
This breakout season has been a long time coming for the 2013 16th rounder, who was viewed by many as a steal in the Alex Anthopoulos/Blake Parker look-for-prospects-in-non-traditional-places era. Jansen had a decent season at the plate at short-season Bluefield in 2014 (.282/.390/.484 in 38 games), but his career thus far has been marked by an inability to stay healthy. He has missed major chunks of time in every pro season (2014 - knee injury, 2015- broken Catching hand, 2016 hamate bone removal), but his performance last fall in the Arizona Fall League (where he held his own against advanced competition) and so far this year indicates that he's making up for lost development time in a hurry.
And lest you think Jansen is a bat-first player, it's his skills behind the plate that have won him accolades at every stop in his career. The 6'3"/225 Jansen presents a big target for pitchers, but he covers the lower half of the strike zone extremely well, which is important for hurlers who rely on the two-seamer that he has caught like Sean Reid-Foley, Conner Greene, and TJ Zeuch. Jansen is a superior blocker of balls in the dirt, and he has long been an excellent framer of pitches. His ability to work with pitchers and his leadership skills have also been lauded for some time now. Jansen has a strong, accurate arm - his infielders have to be on their toes when a runner attempts to steal, because Jansen's throw will arrive in a hurry and on the spot.
His breakout year with the bat can be partially explained by finally being healthy and getting consistent reps, and by new sport glasses that he donned last fall:
I started wearing them after the season last year into the fall. They are fantastic I was never good at putting eye drops in my eyes and I tried contacts but they weren't for me, so I stuck with the glasses.
Jansen admits that the new eyewear has helped him on both sides of the ball this year. "They have helped big time," he said. "I can see spin much better, helping me behind the plate as well."
Jansen has never found himself near most Blue Jays Top 10 prospects during his career, which is mostly attributable to his truncated service time. And entering this season, he was only the third-ranked Blue Jays Catching prospect, behind the recently-acquired Reese McGuire, and 2014 1st rounder Max Pentecost, who has had injury problems of his own - Pentecost just resumed Catching duties last week, donning his mask for the first time in almost three years, sharing time behind the plate with Jansen (Jansen's big day at the plate came while he was DHing). Jansen has shown a better bat this year than McGuire, and is far ahead of Pentecost in terms of his defensive development. In a way, he combines the best of both - Pentecost's skills at the plate, and McGuire's behind it.
The trick for Jansen, of course, is to stay healthy and in the lineup for a prolonged period of time. He is repeating Dunedin this year after suiting up for only 54 games last year, and 46 (with Lansing) the year before. With the glove-first McGuire ensconsed above him in New Hampshire despite a .216/.311/.373 line so far, and Pentecost putting up numbers almost comparable to Jansen's so far (.344/.368/.622) but unable to assume full-time Catching duties, the Blue Jays are likely going to be content with keeping Jansen healthy and have his bat in the Dunedin order on a daily basis. Sharing time behind the plate with Pentecost should do a great deal to help keep him on the field.
McGuire may never hit enough to be more than an MLB back up, and the possibility of Pentecost moving off the position still has to be considered high. Jansen has the skills and the build to handle a major league pitching staff, and this year he has finally shown that while he still has yet to prove that he could be a middle-of-the-order bat, he has started to demonstrate that he can handle a bat just the same. With Russell Martin's contract with two years to run beyond this campaign, there's every chance we see Jansen in a Blue Jays uniform at some point in 2019 or the following year.
After a mild January, the snow squall machine cranked up here in Southern Ontario's snowbelt this past week, the Atlantic provinces are closing in on 100 cm of snow in less than 7 days, and normally balmy Vancouver has seen record-breaking snowfall amounts this winter. Just the same, Canada's celebrity groundhogs have predicted an early spring, and with Pitchers and Catchers reporting to spring training this week, the end of the tunnel that is a northern winter is firmly in sight.
Minor league spring training begins a few weeks after the major league version, and even though the participants perform far from the spotlight that the big leaguers are under, the competition is no less intense. With the Blue Jays under Mark Shapiro renewing their commitment to drafting, teaching, and developing players in their minor league system to help replenish the major league team, there should be a number of interesting stories to follow at the minor league complex in March.
Will Vladdy Jr continue to rake in full-season ball? The top international free agent signing of 2015 did not disappoint in his debut season last year.
Skipping the complex leagues, Vladimir Guerrero Jr put together a solid season against older competition in the Appalachian League, showcasing outstanding strike zone judgement, developing power, and surprising defence. He more than caught the attention of Baseball America:
Guerrero does just about everything evaluators want to see in a teenage hitter. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills, to the point he seems to have been born to hit. His special hands allow him to manipulate the barrel and square up pitches of all types. He has excellent strike-zone judgement for a 17-year-old, walking nearly as often as he struck out and showing an ability to lay off breaking balls that will be further tested at higher levels. He has tremendous raw power and showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields at an advanced rate for his age. Guerrero covers the plate well and should be an above-average hitter with 30-plus homer potential down the line
Guerrero has little left to prove in short season ball, and it is entirely likely that he gets to experience a Midwestern spring with Lansing this April. And it's there that we will get a better idea of how legit his bat is, and if his future is indeed at 3rd Base. Guerrero has said that he wants to be in the big leagues sooner rather than later (BA thinks 2019), and while the Blue Jays under Shapiro and Director of Player Development Gil Kim have shown a preference for slow and steady progressions of prospects, there may be a temptation to accelerate his timetable somewhere along the line. Still, this will likely be a season of adjustments for Vladdy Jr (playing every day, in a relatively new culture, in a cold spring climate), so it's reasonable to see him stay for the season in the Midwest League.
BA named Guerrero their 20th overall prospect - heady stuff for a player who would be in his senior year of high school if he had been raised stateside. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus left him off their Top 101 list this past week, the rationalization being:
We really like the bat, but he's a 17 year old that looks like he is going to end up at first base. That's a tough profile and I need to see a full-season ball resume before I jump on board. I fully expect him to be on next year's list, and he was on various iterations of this year's.
Will Sean Reid-Foley be able to continue to dominate hitters at AA After reaching the second step of full season ball at Dunedin in his first crack, Reid-Foley returned to Lansing last year to start 2016. Equipped with a new, streamlined delivery, Reid-Foley was on a mission to harness command of his fastball. And command it he did, fanning 59 in 58 innings, earning a return trip to Dunedin, where he continued to cut down on his walks, allowing only 16 free passes (vs 71 Ks) in 57 innings.
Reid-Foley was shut down in August for a second consecutive season for precautionary measures, meaning that his durability becomes something of a question, along with whether or not he can continue to command the strike zone at AA, where he should begin the season, or find himself by June.
The jump from A to AA ball is the biggest in the minors. Players can no longer get by on the strength of their physical gifts alone; hitters must be able to demonstrate more patience, and pitchers must have command and secondary pitches working for them. And that's where the challenge will come for Reid-Foley. There is little question about his fastball or wipeout slider. It will be his ability to throw that fastball to both sides of the plate, and to complement it with his change up (which he worked on in Instructional League play last fall) that will ultimately determine if he meets his projection of #2 starter. This is the season when we will finally decide how close he will come to fulfilling that.
How will Max Pentecost's shoulder respond to Catching every day? When Pentecost stepped into the batter's box for Lansing last May, it was his first game action in 21 months. While his bat showed no signs of rust from the layoff, he did not go behind the plate in 2016, as the organization opted to protect his thrice-surgically repaired shoulder.
The plan will be to have Pentecost return to Catching duties this spring, and make up for the reps he's missed since being drafted in the 1st round in 2014.
The question is, of course, will his shoulder stand up to the rigours of Catching? More importantly, given concerns about his receiving skills, will the results of this season ultimately force the Blue Jays to move him to another position?
Pentecost will likely start in Dunedin, where the team's medical staff can monitor him. All the reports suggest that he is a premium athlete, and while he probably will be an offense-first Catcher, Pentecost should develop into at least an adequate backstop.
Will Anthony Alford make consistent contact to take advantage of his speed? Injuries led to what can be termed a sideways 2016 for Alford. A 37% K rate in the first half could probably be attributed to layoffs from a pair of stints on the Disabled List, as he managed a more reasonable 25% in the second.
Like Reid-Foley, Alford is destined for New Hampshire this season, where some holes in his swing could be potentially be exploited. Alford will not be able to sit back and hammer mistakes at AA like he did in A ball. At the same time, he has made so many adjustments in such a relatively short period of time, it would be hard to bet against Alford continuing his upward progression.
He more than held his own in the Arizona Fall League, although there are still concerns about the relative lack of loft in his swing. The 7 Home Runs he hit in the second half in the pitcher-friendly FSL may be evidence that his power is starting to develop. Alford uses the whole field, and even though there will always be a swing-and-miss element to his game, he makes the pitcher work in the majority of his at bats, and can draw walks, which brings his game-changing speed into play. We will get a much truer read on his abilities this season.
Will Rowdy Tellez break camp with the Blue Jays?
If there is any doubt that Tellez profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat, he erased that with his performance at New Hampshire. Despite seeing few strikes in the month of April, he managed to finish 5th in the Eastern League in Home Runs, 2nd in OBP, as well as 3rd in both Slugging and OPS.
Unlike many bat-first players, Tellez has proven to be willing to change his approach with two strikes, cutting down on his swing in an attempt to put the ball in play.
Over at Jay Journal, Lucas Silva posits that Tellez may potentially have a problem catching up to MLB fastballs because of his habit of "casting" (ie., moving his hands away from his body as he starts loading his swing, which tends to result in a slower bat because of the longer path it has to travel).
Now, I am not a scout, and while I enjoy reading about scouts and their work a great deal, I don't profess to know as much as others do about swing mechanics. While his article is well written, Silva's video evidence is not compelling, and as someone who watched about 100 Tellez ABs when he was with New Hampshire last year, I have always noticed how he moves his hands slightly back as he loads (as a good hitter does), but I don't really see any real evidence of him casting.
Silva offers as part of his argument a bit of an offhanded Keith Law remark on Tellez: "Bad athlete. Can't hit good fastballs." I love Law's work as much as anyone, and I can't wait for the April release of his book, but he is known for developing a bias (hello, Devon Travis) about a player and sticking with it. Silva also uses Josh Norris of Baseball America's rationale for leaving Tellez off BA's Top 20 Eastern League prospects list:
“Some evaluators noted he doesn’t have the bat speed to portend the big power necessary to profile as a major league first baseman. Almost all of his power, too, is to the pull-side. He’s not a particularly deft defender, and was aided by New Hampshire’s short porch in right field.”
For what it's worth, the dimensions at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium are very similar to the Rogers Centre, with foul line distances about three feet shorter than Toronto's.
Tellez has worked hard to overcome the bad-body/DH profile he was tagged with as a high schooler, and while he has come a long way, he will never be confused with Wes Parker at 1st. Veteran scout Bernie Pleskoff scouted Tellez in the Arizona Fall League in 2015, and while he gave a nod to the bat speed, he was impressed with the overall hit tool:
An imposing presence at the plate, Tellez is one of several very capable left-handed-hitting first basemen playing in the 2015 Arizona Fall League.
Thus far in Arizona, I've seen a less aggressive swing than I anticipated. Tellez's pull side power could be game changing. However, he has patience at the plate and can accept a walk.
There is little question Tellez's raw power is his best and most refined tool. His hitting mechanics are still a work in progress. Tellez's hands seem slow through the ball. The slow bat speed results in some late reactions and swings and misses. Tellez makes good use of his lower half in his swing, getting those huge legs and hips to generate a true power stroke.
I view Tellez as a hitter and not just a slugger. He has compiled a .285 batting average in parts of three Minor League seasons. Tellez's power is real. His role may depend upon how much he develops as a defender. Regardless, at the minimum, Tellez can certainly look to a future as a fence-busting designated hitter.
I'm not suggesting that Silva is wrong in his analysis, but his video evidence is inconclusive. It does seem hard to believe, on the surface, that a prospect of his stature would be allowed to continue hitting with faulty mechanics, especially for a problem that is relatively easily corrected. And despite these issues, Tellez still posted strong numbers as a 21 year old in his first go-round at AA. Hitting mechanics, while fundamental to a player's success, are only one part of the overall package known as approach. Former Baseball Prospectus writer Jason Parks, who was recently promoted to the Cubs' front office, in his essay "How Are Players Scouted, Acquired, and Developed," wrote:
The ability to recognize pitches, make adjustments to those pitches, and execute when presented with these conditions are what take the physical tool from its raw state to its ultimate ceiling.
That, in a nutshell (to me, at least), is Tellez. As someone who has watched a lot of him over the past two years, I have been impressed with how he has continued to mature as a hitter. The concerns about his size, lack of speed, and defensive shortcomings seem to have overshadowed his bat for some. Granted, players of his type are working with a smaller margin of error than most, but he has proven that he is more than a one-dimensional slugger. He has worked hard on his conditioning and nutrition (he admitted that he really only learned how to cook properly for himself last year) - Tellez weighs 30 lbs less than he did as a high school senior. Working hard with Blue Jays infield instructor Mike Mordecai on his positioning and footwork last year, becoming at least an adequate defender seems to be a possibility. Old notions seem to die hard, however.
Will he break camp with the Blue Jays this spring? It seems unlikely - there is no rush to put him on the 40-man roster until after the season, and the consensus is that he could use another year of seasoning in Buffalo. However, given Kendrys Morales' age and potential defensive limitations, and the decline of production from Justin Smoak, Tellez could make a contribution before next season. One thing is for certain - he should see some regular action against MLB pitching this spring, which should help to begin to settle the question about whether or not he projects as a major league hitter.
Where will Lourdes Gurriel start the season? Last week, Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim said that Gurriel, who can play several positions, is most comfortable at Short Stop, but could play Left Field as well. He has not faced live pitching since 2015, of course, so his ultimate landing spot come April will be dependent on how well and how quickly he can scrape the rust off this spring.
If he does in fact play short, there is the issue of where Richard Urena would start the season. It's hard to see Gurriel in Buffalo, but Urena seems ticketed for a return to New Hampshire for at least half a season. The club will likely let Gurriel dictate his timeline this season. It will be interesting to see where he's headed when camp breaks.
Will Reese McGuire develop some pop to go along with his elite defensive skills? There is no doubt that McGuire will develop into an elite receiver. His handling of pitchers, blocking and framing skills, and incredible pop time and accurate arm are already superb. One scout said last summer that McGuire was far and away the best defensive Catcher he had seen in the minors that year.
The question will be about his bat. He has shown an ability to put the ball in play, and the potential for power is there, but it has yet to manifest itself (McGuire has hit 4 Home Runs in almost 1400 PAs).
One source suggested that the Blue Jays were looking at McGuire as a candidate to back up Russell Martin this season, but the signing of Jarrod Saltalamacchia has all but put an end to that.
The best plan for McGuire will be to continue to develop, likely in Buffalo. There have been suggestions that his lack of power stems from a relatively flat swing plane. Kim said that when they acquire a player, the Blue Jays are in no rush to make drastic changes to his game. With Instructs behind and a full spring ahead of him, maybe the club's hitting instructors will have time to help him develop more loft, which could result in more hard contact.
There will be other interesting storylines that develop at the minor league complex, but these seem to be the most likely.
When you talk to Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim, one thing becomes readily apparent: the possessor of a strong work ethic himself, that quality is one of the first that he mentions when discussing the merits of staff and top prospects in the Toronto minor league system. The other word you hear repeated is passion: a trait Kim has in abundance himself.
Kim recently discussed the state of the Blue Jays system in a wide-ranging discussion. Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro has been given the means to build a state-of-the-art baseball organization, one that combines the best of the worlds of traditional scouting, analytics, top-notch minor league instruction, and sport medicine. The goal is to build an organization that hopes to not only be competitive in the short-term, but in the long run as well. And the 35-year old Kim, whose story is as good as anyone's in pro ball, will be a huge part of that in his role as overseer of minor league players and coaches.
The Overall State of the System
Kim agrees that the system took quite a hit as a result of Alex Anthopolous' trading spree from November, 2014, to July, 2015, when he dealt 18 minor leaguers in upgrading the major league roster. But he counters that not only did the system rebound last summer as a result of a strong draft and the huge steps forward taken by several prospects already in the system, but opportunities for players like Andy Burns, Chad Girodo, Matt Dermody, and Danny Barnes to step up were created as well. Much of the projectable talent may be in the lower levels of system, but Kim feels that there are a number of players who will start in Buffalo that could make a contribution to the 25-man roster if the need arises.
On Coaching Changes Cesar Martin is the first name that was discussed when it comes to the spate of personnel changes that were made in the minor league system. A long-time coach in the system. Martin drew accolades with his work with the Gulf Coast League Jays the last two summers. Kim praises Martin as, "a great communicator, and someone who is easy to talk to." Kim says that Martin is able to build a rapport with both Latin and North American players, and can motivate his charges:
Cesar has such a good way about him, always positive and makes coaches and players feel comfortable...very knowledgeable, great person to be leading our young men.
Martin is a hard worker, and Kim admits he has learned a great deal from him. It has been suggested that Martin's promotion to Lansing has much to do with the likely presence of top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr, but Kim says that it was entirely on merit. Martin is viewed as an up-and-coming managerial talent by the team.
For the past two seasons, former Blue Jays backstop Sal Fasano served as the club's minor league pitching coordinator. After serving as the system's roving Catching instructor previously, he unofficially continued to mentor the organization's receivers in addition to his pitching duties. While Fasano was highly regarded, and many players in the system expressed their disappointment when he was let go last August, Kim and the Blue Jays had wanted to split the position back into two. That was accomplished with the promotion of Jeff Ware, formerly Lansing's pitching coach, to the pitching co-ordinator's job. Another former Blue Jays C, Ken Huckaby, who managed Dunedin to a playoff appearance last year, takes over the Catching Instructor role.
Kim also had words of praise for both coaches. Of Ware, Kim called him a strong communicator who gets the most out of his pitchers, a humble man despite his background (former first round draft choice). Huckaby has a passion for Catching: "he loves talking about it, and he loves teaching it."
Former Blue Jays World Series hero Devon White has carved out a post-playing career as a baseball instructor and a Jays goodwill ambassador. He now can add hitting coach for AAA Buffalo to his resume. White came to Instructs last fall, and Kim was impressed with his enthusiasm. When it came time for outfielders to perform some drills, the fit White went onto the field and did them with the prospects. Given how much he enjoyed himself, Kim says it was a "no-brainer" to have him coach at the higher levels of the system, where he can have a significant impact on players who are on the cusp of the major leagues.
Kim was also asked about Rich Miller, who is returning at the age of 66 to manage at short-season Vancouver. Miller managed the C's to the Northwest League title in his first year at the helm in 2011 (their first year of affiliation with Toronto), and has been a senior advisor in the organization for the past couple of seasons. Kim describes him as, "an old-fashioned coach, who demands accountability from his players, and is passionate about teaching the fundamentals." The Vancouver fans are among the most devoted in all of minor league baseball, and deserve a competitive team on the field, even if development is the priority. Returning Miller to the dugout is a step in that direction.
On Reese McGuire McGuire, acquired from the Pirates in the Liriano-Hutchison deal last summer, has been rumoured by some to be in the running for the job of backing up Russ Martin. With the signing of veteran backstop Jarrod Saltalamacchia, it would seem that McGuire will still be destined for more minor league seasoning. With the DFA'ing of A.J. Jimenez, it would seem that the way has been cleared for McGuire to get that experience at AAA Buffalo.
A scouting report from last spring lauded McGuire's defensive skills, but questioned his bat, partially because of his mechanics. Video from his time in New Hampshire after the trade last season showed that he had stopped dropping his hands prior to swinging, resulting in some harder contact. Asked if the team had worked on correcting McGuire's swing, he responded by saying that, "as a general rule, we don't like to make mechanical changes after we acquire a player. We like to establish a relationship, and in many ways, we're still getting to know Reese." Kim does like his short, compact stroke, as well as his elite receiving skills. "As a young player, he's had a heavy workload already," Kim continued, "and he's an intelligent Catcher, retains information very well, and demonstrates leadership on and off the field."
On Lourdes Gurriel Landing the Cuban on a team-friendly contract was something of a coup. There has been speculation that Gurriel would start the season playing SS for Buffalo, but considering he's had almost a two-year layoff, that would seem to be optimistic. Similar to McGuire, Kim says the club is still getting to know Gurriel, but he has been impressed with the Cuban's work ethic, professionalism, and high baseball IQ after watching him work out in Dunedin.
Kim does acknowledge that Gurriel is probably the most comfortable at Short Stop, but says that he feels at home in Left Field as well. Understandably, while he's certainly expecting much from Gurriel in the future, Kim is not in a rush to name an April assignment for him. Much of that will be up to Gurriel himself.
Pace-of-Play Rule Changes Pitch clocks were instituted in AA and AAA parks two years ago, and word came this week that there is a proposal from MLB to experiment with a new rule in the complex leagues this year whereby teams start extra innings frames with a runner on 2nd base.
Kim was reluctant to express a negative opinion about the rule, saying that MLB is constantly looking at ways to improve its product. It's hard to see this rule ever making it to the majors, but it should help save minor league arms from extended extra-inning games at the complex level.
On Integration with the High Performance Division It did not receive a great deal of fanfare last year, but the Blue Jays creating a department that was charged with the conditioning, training, and nutrition of its players puts it on the cutting edge of player development in the sport (even if baseball is still lagging behind many other sports in this area).
Kim is proud of the integration between the minor league and high performance departments, saying that they work hand-in-hand in many ways, from setting individual strength/flexibility/nutrition goals for each player, to working together in developing schedules and moves for each player.
There are few high performance divisions across MLB, and none rival the Blue Jays' in terms of staff. Kim stresses that it's just not players the team is developing - it's personnel as well. And staff are encouraged, if the need arises, to step beyond their roles to help develop "the whole player." It's a holistic approach that's reflected in the high performance division's philosophy.
His In-Season Routine Kim took questions while in transit to his home in New York, and a listener on the other end of the phone conversation had to compete with the sounds of police sirens in the background to focus on what Kim was saying. During the season, his job involves a great deal of travelling - he's on the road three weeks a month, checking in on the minor league affiliates, overseeing players and staff. He does spend a fair amount of time in Dunedin, where the high performance division is headquartered. It's fitting that Kim is on the move during a phone interview, because his job requires a lot of that.
On Tim Raines It's not everyday that you have a Hall of Famer on your staff, but that's the case with the man everyone in the organization refers to as Rock. Kim states that Raines has an infectious laugh and sense of humour, and "a special ability to make people feel confident." His knowledge base, especially when it comes to base stealing, is expansive. Kim isn't old enough to have remember seeing Raines at his peak, but it's obvious he's a huge fan.
The Blue Jays were ranked as the 24th-best minor league organization by Baseball America last year, and were more recently graded by Keith Law as the 21st. Five prospects have cracked BA's Top 100 (Vladimir Guerrero Jr/20th, Anthony Alford 59th, Gurriel 73rd, Sean Reid-Foley 75th, Rowdy Tellez/95th), and it's possible a few more (Max Pentecost, T.J. Zeuch) may join them next year. Kim would not commit to a team to watch among the Blue Jays affiliates this year, but it's hard not to think of Lansing being that squad. In a system on the rise, much of the remaining projectable talent in the organization will likely start the year there.
Mark Shapiro took quite a beating from some fans over the past year, mainly perhaps because he wasn't Alex Anthopoulos. Unlike during his tenure in Cleveland, when budget constraints always seem to be hampering his efforts, Shapiro has quietly been building a first class operation in all aspects of the game. He inherited a considerable amount of baseball acumen in the likes of Tony LaCava, Andrew Tinnish, Dana Brown, and Perry Minasian, he's greatly buffeted the operations department by hiring Mike Murov, the minor league staff (Kim and Ben Cherington), and the scouting side (Steve Sanders), as well as creating the high performance division (Angus Mugford). One would be hard-pressed to find a management group with as impressive a collective baseball resume as this one. The rest of the baseball world has taken note that Shapiro is creating a structure that will keep the club competitive on an annual basis. And Kim is thrilled to be a part of that.
The signing of C Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a minor league deal last week intensifies the competition for the job of backing up Blue Jays incumbent Russell Martin when spring training starts this month.
And there have been rumblings that Reese McGuire, acquired in the Francisco Liriano deal last summer, is one of the combatants for that back up spot.
If that rumour is true, it shows that even though he finished the season with AA New Hampshire, the Blue Jays front office believes the 2013 Pirates' first rounder (14th overall) has passed A.J. Jimenez as the top Catching prospect in the organization.
While it's hard to see McGuire breaking camp with the team this April, there is no doubt that he profiles at least as a decent MLB back up. Concerns about his bat have persisted since high school, but there is little doubt about his defensive skills, which Baseball America noted in their scouting report prior to the draft:
His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power.
McGuire progressed through the Pirates' system quickly, rising as high as their 5th-ranked prospect by 2014, and even cracked BA's Top 100. Expectations dipped as his offensive production didn't develop as expected. Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus observes that while McGuire puts the ball in play, there's not a lot of hard contact:
The contact ability is there to make him an average (or perhaps slightly above) hitter, but he’s yet to show the kind of power that would stop pitchers from challenging him, and more than his fair share of at-bats end in weak contact. He works deep counts and shows an advanced approach at the plate, and will flash average raw power in BP, so there’s something to latch onto for the dreamers out there.
At 5'11"/215, McGuire may be on the stocky side, but he moves well behind the plate and on the bases, suggesting both athleticism and a high baseball IQ. He sets a good target for his pitchers, and does not give away pitch locations to hitters. He has smooth actions when receiving pitches, which allows him to frame well:
McGuire's ability to control the running game is also an important part of his toolkit. He threw out 39% of would-be Eastern League base runners prior to his trade to Toronto; the lower success rate he experienced with New Hampshire (17%) may be attributable to his working with a new pitching staff, and because the league stopped running on him.
McGuire may not have a cannon for an arm, but he has superb footwork, a quick release, and a deadly accurate arm - he gets rid of the ball quickly, and the ball often arrives before the runner. If he makes the team this year, it may take him a while to make any noise with his bat, but fans will appreciate his throwing skills very quickly.
At the plate, McGuire has shown good strike zone judgement over the course of his minor league career. The left-handed hitter uses a leg kick to load up his swing, and he shows good bat-to-ball skills by putting a lot of balls in play, but he doesn't make a lot of hard contact. He drops his hands as he strides, and he doesn't appear to have the bat speed to get his barrel into the hitting zone early enough to drive the ball more - there's not a lot of loft to that swing, either. Cubs Scout Jason Parks, writing for Baseball Prospectus, once wrote that "Hands are the mothers of hitting," when it comes to their role in a batter's swing:
Hands establish the physical connection with the bat, but they also control the navigational system that takes the bat into the load, into the zone, into the path of the baseball, and through the secondary extension......When a hitter rushes or drops his hands, such mechanical hitches either get ironed out or the hitter gets exposed in a graphic manner.
Going over video of McGuire's ABs since he joined New Hampshire, it does appear that former Fisher Cats hitting coach Stubby Clapp helped limit McGuire's hands drop. It did not reflect it in his numbers for August, but he did appear to be driving the ball more. This may be one of the reasons the Blue Jays feel he's ready to move on.
Given his build and athletic skills, there is still some hope that the power in his bat might develop, but his mechanics may need adjusting if he's ever to fulfil that projection. McGuire may have to lengthen his swing, and trade some of those walks (about a 10% rate last year) for some added pop.
Given the fact that his bat may still be developing, it's interesting to hear that he may be in the mix for a big league job this spring. From a developmental point of view, it might be better to leave him in Buffalo, and allow him plenty of reps, and time to handle pitching prospects like Conner Greene, or possibly even Sean Reid-Foley later in the season. Or this may be a signal that the Blue Jays feel that his bat has gone as far as it can, and since his glove is already close to major league-ready, it's time to begin his career as a dependable MLB back up.
The departure of R.A Dickey and his personal Catcher Josh Thole now gives the Blue Jays added flexibility when it comes to this position. Martin can get rest on a more predictable schedule this year (day game after a night game, etc), which should boost his production and sharpen his defence as the season nears its end (Martin posted a .625 OPS last Sept/Oct). Even in a secondary role, McGuire may become a valuable component of a team looking to reach the playoffs for the third straight year.
A couple of tidbits as we close in on the opening of MLB spring training, and the MiLB version a few weeks later.
Burns signs with Lotte
Andy Burns was given his release so that he could sign with the Lotte Giants of the KBO. Burns appeared in 10 games with the Blue Jays in 2016, going hitless in 7 plate appearances. He was removed from the 40-man roster in November.
An 11th round pick in 2011, Burns' versatility helped move him up the minor league ladder. Originally a SS, Burns can play all four infield positions, as well as the corner outfield spots. He told his hometown Coloradan, he's excited about the prospect playing in baseball-crazy South Korea:
"They absolutely love baseball over there," said Burns, who will leave for South Korea near the end of January. "It's going to be a really fun baseball atmosphere. I'm excited to get over there."
Burns reportedly signed a one-year deal with Lotte, and may return to play stateside in 2018.
Hollon Released
Word came via Vancouver freelancer Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey on Twitter) when he tweeted from the Canadians annual Hot Stove luncheon that Blue Jays Minor League Coordinator Charlie Wilson informed him that RHP Clinton Hollon has been released.
To say that the 2013 2nd rounder has a checkered past would be putting it mildly. Considered to be in possession of a first-round arm, concerns about his elbow and his makeup caused him to fall to the 2nd round, where he signed for below slot. Hollon underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, and missed the entire season. He came back impressively in 2015, pitching well for Vancouver and Lansing, before receiving a 50-game suspension in late August for a positive PED (amphetamines) test. Then, just before he was set to return to action in late May, he received another 50-game penalty for a positive test for a drug of abuse.
The Blue Jays stood by Hollon, and invited him to Instructs last fall. Obviously, somewhere along the way the club felt that his mental and/or physical approach to the game was lacking, which is why they decided to release him. The club has shown little tolerance for recreational drug use in the past, sending prospects Tyler Gonzales and Kramer Champlin packing after positive tests.
You can't help but feel for Hollon, but at the same time, he likely was given ample opportunity to redeem himself, and failed to do so. He denied knowingly taking amphetamines, which probably did not enamour him to the organization. Given his electric arm, there still likely will be a team that will given him another chance.
Six Prospects Invited to Spring Training with the Big Club
In addition to recent 40-man additions Richie Urena and Anthony Alford, six prospects were invited to the Blue Jays Major League training camp when it opens next month.
Extending invitations to these players gives them a valuable experience from several perspectives. Not only do they get to practice with and compete against MLB players and play in front of MLB spring training crowds, they get an opportunity to see the work ethic that propelled those MLB players to their team's 25-man rosters. Alford was invited to his first spring training in 2015, and said that he learned a lot about preparation and how to conduct himself from watching Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista. RHP Conner Greene was expected to begin last year at AA New Hampshire after spending the final month of the 2015 season there, but the club felt that he needed to work on his routine between starts, so he returned to High A Dunedin to start 2016. He did improve on that routine, and no doubt his invitation was meant to serve as another lesson in his baseball education.
Joining Greene will be 1B Rowdy Tellez, C Reese McGuire, OF Dwight Smith Jr, 2B Jon Berti, and relievers Will Browning and Tim Mayza. Of this group, only Tellez might have a shot at breaking camp with the big team, although barring further roster moves, he appears headed for AAA Buffalo to start the season. Mayza and Browning are on the verge of joining the decent corps of relievers the Blue Jays have stockpiled in the upper levels of the system. There have been some who suggest that Greene might be in line for a bullpen job this spring, but while his command issues would be likely improved if his repertoire of pitches was cut down in a relief role, the organization still views him as a starter.
There was some concern last year that the Blue Jays minor league hitters did not get enough reps in spring training, and it caused some teams (New Hampshire, in particular) to get off to a slow start. While having hitters in camp like Tellez is beneficial for them, it can also take away from their actual playing time, and it will be interesting to see how long they stay in camp before being shipped to the minor league complex this spring.
MLB Draft Order Set The Orioles' signing of Mark Trumbo took care of the last remaining free agent with compensation attached, meaning that the order for the June MLB draft has now been set.
The Blue Jays will get the 22nd pick, as well as the 28th pick as compensation for the loss of free agent Edwin Encarnacion. While the loss of Encarnacion hurts, the chance to pick two players in the top 30 could bode well for the future of the organization. It might also give the team a chance to roll the dice with one of those two picks - they could play it safe with a proven college bat or arm with one, and take a chance on a high school player with high upside but equally high risk with the other. Either way, it will help a system on the rebound add some more depth.
The Blue Jays came to terms with free agent minor league C Mike Ohlman last week.
The lanky (6'5", 240) North Carolinian played travel ball with Will Myers, and was a highly regarded prep player. The Orioles drafted him in the 11th round in 2009 (he had committed to Miami), and signed him to above slot ($995K) money. There were concerns about his long term future behind the plate, however, as Baseball America noted in their draft report:
He's tall for a catcher at 6-foot-4, and his slender 200-pound body doesn't seem suited to the position for the long-term, scouts worry. But he has shown excellent athletic ability, and he should be able to remain a catcher at least through college. He has excellent arm strength, but his receiving skills are less advanced than his Florida prep rivals. He has improved his skills behind the plate but has a long way to go in terms of blocking, framing pitches and learning other nuances behind the plate.
Still, Baltimore added him to their 40-man roster, and he was the O's 15th-ranked prospect after his first pro season, seeming to be headed toward bigger things. His career took a step backward in 2012, when he missed time due to a spring training car accident, and a second positive test for a recreational drug. While his receiving skills were still in question, his bat was developing, and he led the Carolina League in hitting in 2013. Baltimore reportedly like his game-calling skills, but there were still huge concerns about his blocking skills, and by 2014 he was spending time at 1st Base, bringing comparisons to another O's draft pick who was selected as a Catcher, but was eventually moved off the position by the name of Jayson Werth.
When Ohlman struggled in his first year of AA, the Orioles soured on him as a long-term prospect, and he was DFA'd in January of 2015. Picked up by the Cardinals, he showed some improvement behind the plate under the tutelage of Cardinals Manager Mike Matheny, a former Gold Glove-winning tall Catcher himself, but his projection had changed to MLB backup.
In his 8th pro season, he began the year at AA, and finished with AAA, establishing himself as Memphis' everyday Catcher over the last month of the season. His work with the bat was decent (.280/.333/.464 in 54 games) with Memphis, so I thought I would take a look at some of his body of work this summer.
Admittedly, watching several innings spread over four games does not give the whole picture, but some aspects of Ohlman's game behind the plate became evident:
-he is a decent blocker of pitches in the dirt, but his sheer size means that unfolding his large frame costs him some agility, and he takes a split second longer to get to balls that bounce off to the side;
-his larger size means that pitch framing can be something of a challenge: while he can get to low pitches in front of him, he has trouble positioning himself in a manner than can help him get extra strikes with just a slight bit of movement. This is not illusory - Hardball Times has looked into the matter.
-he does appear to be a good pitch caller and handler of pitchers. Working with one of the youngest pitching staffs in the Pacific Coast League, he seemed to have a calming influence on struggling starters.
-pop ups around home plate can be a bit of an adventure for Ohlman. He had trouble tracking several of them.
-despite an above average arm, he struggled throwing out base stealers in AAA. This could be owing to his pitchers' inability to keep runners close, but he skipped throws to 2nd, and generally had trouble controlling the running game.
At the plate, his swing can be a bit long, but Ohlman offers above average potential power. His bat has been ahead of his glove for some time, and probably always will be. There is thought that once he incorporates his lower body into his swing more consistently, he will fulfill that power possibility.
The acquisition of Ohlman gives the Blue Jays added depth both behind the plate and at 1st. With A.J. Jimeneznow the current favourite to win the back up job to Russell Martin barring any moves by the organization before spring training, that should mean Reese McGuire should get the majority of the reps at Buffalo, with Danny Jansen likely moving up to New Hampshire (after a solid fall campaign in the Arizona Fall League), in order to give Max Pentecost much-needed time at the position with Dunedin.
Ohlman has made progress with his receiving skills, but it's hard to see him challenging for an MLB job, even as a back up, at spring training this year. The Blue Jays may look to get him out from behind the plate more often in order to take advantage of his offensive skills.
A year ago, it was difficult to come up with this past of the Blue Jays Top Prospects list.
Alex Anthopoulos' prospect wheeling and dealing had emptied the system of much of its depth.
This year, it's a different story.
Aided by the rapid ascendancy of prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and the addition of draft picks like T.J. Zeuch, the system now boasts a wider base of talent than it did a year ago. A stellar 2016 draft also helped to re-stock the system quickly. Players who may have cracked the top 10 list of other organizations found themselves on the outside of the Toronto list.
If the front office decides to re-tool the major league roster next season, they have far greater prospect currency to deal with than they did a year ago.
11. Justin Maese, RHP ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: Mid to back of the rotation Calling Card: bat-breaking, ground ball contact Maese definitely merited consideration for the Top 10. In only his second year of pro ball, he advanced as far as Lansing, progressing from the GCL to Low A in about one season's worth of starts.
The 2015 3rd rounder had an impressive debut with the GCL Jays, and quickly picked up and perfected a slider at Instructs that fall with former Blue Jays minor league pitching co-ordinator Sal Fasano. Held back in extended to build his innings and arm strength up this year, he skipped Bluefield, and began the season as Vancouver's Opening Day starter. Maese made only 5 starts for the C's, but the front office had seen enough (as had Baseball America, which named him the league's 8th best prospect on that small sample size), and promoted him to Lansing in July. Despite being one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, Maese fared well in full-season ball.
Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, Maese's fastball has a ton of natural sink to it, and when he's pounding the bottom of the strike zone with it, he's extremely tough to barrel up. Add to that his 89 mph slider, and Maese keeps hitters off balance. He does tend to give up ground ball contact, but he's the type of pitcher who can only be a pitch away from getting out of trouble with a double play ball. You really get a sense of his ground ball-inducing abilities with this chart:
Maese is the latest in a long line of lean, tall and downward-plane pitching, athletic pitchers. The former HS QB fields his position well, and credit goes to Blue Jays Texas scout Gerald Murray for going off the beaten baseball path to find this gem. He should begin the season with Lansing next year, but will likely finish in Dunedin.
12. Angel Perdomo LHP ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: Back of the rotation, or back of the bullpen power arm Calling Card: Premium velocity Perdomo was in the back end of my Top 10 last year, and even though he slipped a bit due to the new depth of prospects in the organization, I have always been a huge fan of the 6'7" southpaw.
Brought along slowly, Perdomo remained at Lansing for the full season, even though rotation mates like Sean Reid-Foley, Jon Harris, and Francisco Rios were promoted to Dunedin with numbers that were not that much better than his.
Fastball command has long been an issue for the lefty, and that's what kept him in Lansing for the year. But few pitchers in minor league baseball missed as many bats as Perdomo did in 2016 - his 156 Ks lead the organization and the Midwest League, and was the second highest total in all of minor league ball. When you faced Perdomo this year, chances were good that you would go down swinging:
s
Perdomo's numbers in the second half were not as sizzling as they were in the first. That may because he was tiring in his first year of full season ball, or it may owe to the fact that he was working more on his secondaries.
When he is on his game, Perdomo sits 93-94 with his fastball from a delivery that can be very tough on left-handed hitters, and uses a slider that flashes plus, and a change up that grades at least as average to complement his fastball. The thinking is that as he moves up the ladder, more advanced hitters may lay off his four seamer up in the zone, and that he may profile as a bullpen arm one day. Repeating his delivery consistently to improve that fastball command has been Perdomo's biggest challenge. He sometimes falls off to the 3rd base side, or rushes his arm. Tall southpaws tend to take longer to develop, and even though Perdomo will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft next month if he's not put on the 40-man roster, the organization will likely keep him in a starter's role in Dunedin next year.
13. Reese McGuire, C ETA: 2017 Future Outlook: defence-first, steady MLB back up Calling Card: superior receiving skills Catching depth has been something of a weakness in the organization. With the acquisition of McGuire at the trade deadline, the return to health of Max Pentecost, and the development of several lower level Catching prospects, it has now become a strength.
In McGuire's draft year (2013), I followed scouting reports on him closely, because several had suggested he might land where the Blue Jays were drafting at the 10 spot (the Jays chose fellow California high schooler Phil Bickford, who chose not to sign, and re-entered the draft a year later). BA's draft report on McGuire looks much the same as a scouting report about him might look now:
He is a natural behind the plate. He remains loose, even after adding strength to his 6-foot-1, 190-pound build. His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power. The San Diego recruit runs better than most catchers. Even if he doesn't reach his offensive ceiling, McGuire's defense will allow him to be a big league backup, but if he hits he has all-star potential.
McGuire has risen as far as AA in four pro seasons, so there's always hope that his bat will come around, but a career line of .267/.324/.329 suggests it may not. He was once a BA Top 100 prospect, but has fallen out of their rankings. McGuire had a decent showing the Arizona Fall League last year, has decent bat speed, and he tends to make contact and put balls in play, so there's always a possibility that his swing plane can be altered to hit more line drives than his customary ground ball contact.
With the future of R.A. Dickey and his personal catcher Josh Thole uncertain, there could be a battle for Russell Martin's back up job next spring, depending on what the club does with Dioner Navarro. Unless a Catcher from outside the organization is brought in, McGuire could be battling A.J. Jimenez for that spot.
14. Francisco Rios, RHP ETA: 2018 Future Outlook: Bullpen Power Arm Calling Card: Barrel-dodging slider Rios is perhaps the most under-the-radar prospect on this list, and no one broke out more than this 2012 late IFA signing from Mexico.
Rios posted reasonably good numbers with Vancouver last year, but there was little to prophesize the start he had with Lansing, posting a 1.20 ERA over his first 6 starts, fanning 43 in 30 innings. That performance landed him a promotion to Dunedin (and a spot on the World roster at the Futures Game), where he gave up more contact, but still gave an indication that he's headed higher in the organization.
Rios has added some jump to his fastball, hitting 95 early in the season, and sitting 91-93. His delivery does present with some deception on his fastball, and even more on his slider, which flashes plus potential. He commands both sides of the plate, and is not afraid to bury that slider when he's ahead in the count. He also tries to elevate that fastball to generate swings and misses, but he was not successful with it in the FSL as he was the MWL.
What may limit Rios' ascension up the ladder is his other secondary pitches - his change is inconsistent, his curve would need to improve greatly to even reach that level. While he should return for at least a half season at Dunedin next year, he may eventually move to his pen, where his fastball may tick up, and be complemented even more by his slider.
15. Harold Ramirez, OF ETA: late 2017 Future Outlook: Corner MLB OF Calling Card: Above-Average Hit Tool One may think that since McGuire and Ramirez ranked higher on most Pirates' prospects lists than I have, that I'm not that high on either. To be truthful, I'm not sure there are two prospects in the Blue Jays top 20 that are closer to MLB-ready than this pair.
Ramirez has something of an unorthodox approach at the plate, but all he's done as a prospect is hit. A knee injury after joining the organization limited him to one Eastern League game, but this is a player who has posted a .306/.364/.407 line since turning pro.
Reports suggest that Ramirez profiles as a corner OF because of his arm, but the Jays thought enough of him to push incumbent Roemon Fields to LF in New Hampshire when Ramirez arrived at the trade deadline.
MLB Pipeline's evaluation of RHH Ramirez:
He hits the ball hard to all fields and while he has a line-drive, crush-the-ball-to-right-center approach, he certainly has the strength and bat speed to grow into more power. He has a solid approach and will take a walk.
Ramirez has had a history of injuries, but if he's healthy, he should start the 2017 season in Buffalo, where he should also continue to hit. The outfield was a bit crowded in the Pirates' system, hence their willingness to part with him, and with only perhaps Dalton Pompey realistically ahead of him, if change comes to the Blue Jays outfield this off season, Ramirez could find himself in the big leagues at some point next year.
16. J.B Woodman, OF ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: MLB right fielder Calling Card: Five Tools The first of the two 2nd round picks the Blue Jays had this past June, Woodman tied for the Southeastern Conference lead in Home Runs this past season. In naming him the Northwest League's 6th prospect, BA observed:
Evaluators around the league noted that Woodman made a lot of hard contact and showed the ability to hit both fastballs and offspeed pitches equally well. He showed contact problems by ranking fifth in the league with 72 strikeouts. He’s a steady defender who gets good jumps and reads on balls and has speed enough to steal double-digit bases.
A centre fielder in college and with Vancouver for this past season, scouts think his arm and bat play better in right field. It is true that he swings and misses a lot, but he also works the count and draws walks. He finished the last week of the season in Lansing, and will return there next spring. Several reports I have received about Woodman comment on his bat speed and pitch recognition skills, which will help him make a successful jump to full season ball. While Woodman hit the ball to all fields, the LHH hit his three Homers to the opposite field:
With the emphasis the organization has placed on HS pitchers over the last several drafts, a toolsy, athletic player like Woodman is something of a novelty. Of all the players on this list, he's the one that I'm most interested to follow next year.
17. Ryan Borucki, LHP ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: back of the rotation starter Calling Card: MLB-ready change-up If there was an award for Grit and Resilience in the organization, the next two pitchers on this list would have shared it for 2016.
A 15th round pick in 2012 whose stock had fallen due to a torn UCL, Borucki has missed two full seasons since joining the organization (Tommy John in 2013; elbow and shoulder issues last year).
The Appy League's 12th-ranked prospect in 2014 despite only spending a month there, Borucki seemed ready to head to full season play in 2015, but was limited to only 5 innings.
Finally healthy this year, the club opted to keep him in Florida when spring training camp broke, assigning him to Dunedin. Whether this was designed to challenge him, keep him in a warm climate until the weather further north warmed up, or have him close to the team's medical facilities in the case of a breakdown is unknown, but he was overmatched, as Florida State League hitters pounded him at a .421 clip over his first 6 starts.
Sent down a level to Lansing, Borucki turned his season (and possibly his career) around with a Midwest League 2nd-best 2.41 ERA, and a 10-4 record. Borucki fanned 107 in 115 innings, walking only 26. Working with Lugnuts pitching coach Jeff Ware and then-Blue Jays minor league pitching instructor Sal Fasano, he added some deception to his delivery, and began missing barrels with greater regularity.
The tall, athletic lefthander can dial it up to 95 with has fastball, but sits in the 90-92 range. He complements it with what might be the best change up in the organization, a pitch with great deception and depth that MWL hitters had little or no chance against. Perhaps the most encouraging sign this season was the career-high 135 innings he threw this year.
Borucki has lost some development time, but showed the determination and pitchability that led the organization to roll the dice on him 4 years ago. He should return to Dunedin and pitch with greater success next year, and might move quickly now that he has a healthy full season under his belt.
18. Patrick Murphy, RHP ETA: 2020 Future Outlook: Back of the rotation Calling Card: If Borucki is medium-grade sandpaper, Murphy is the coarse-grade variety. His has been the longest road among the prospects on this list.
He missed his senior year of high school due to a torn UCL, but the Blue Jays still took him in the 3rd round that year (2013). His pro debut, delayed to 2014, lasted all of 4 innings.
Shut down early in 2015 due to lingering arm numbness and pain, Murphy missed the entire 2015 season after surgery to remove a rib to help lessen pain in the arm. Held back in extended this year, he pitched in 8 games for Lansing before heading to Vancouver when the Northwest League season opened.
Murphy found himself with the C's, anchoring their rotation, pitching in the league's All Star game, and being named the loop's 12-best prospect. His work drew notice from the opposition, according to BA:
Managers praised Murphy for the angle on his 92-96 mph fastball and ability to pound the bottom part of the zone with his entire arsenal. He couples his fastball with a 12-to-6 curveball that rates as an above-average pitch and a changeup he spent time developing at Vancouver
Having not pitched in almost two calendar years, Murphy showed some rust with Lansing, walking 14 in only 21 innings. His command improved with Vancouver. His development will likely be slow and steady, with a return to Lansing next season
19. Jordan Romano, RHP ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: Back of the rotation innings-eater Calling Card: Pounder of the lower part of the strike zone If you can remember only one thing about the Markham, ON, native it should be this: toward the end of spring training in 2015, Romano threw a pitch in a game that made the count full - and also made his UCL give way. He felt it, but stayed in the game for one more pitch, uncorking a hellacious slider to strike the hitter out. A few weeks later, he underwent Tommy John surgery, wiping out his season.
I have followed Romano's career closely since the Blue Jays made him their 10th pick in 2014 out of Oral Roberts, where he was 3rd on their all-time Saves list -despite only playing one season there.
As someone who grew up playing on some of the fields Romano played on in Southern Ontario (albeit a couple of decades earlier), it's easy for me to feel an affinity for someone who defied long odds to get drafted, and may beat even longer ones to pitch in the majors one day. He kept me up-to-date with his progress throughout his rehab, and impressed me with his positive attitude.
Romano spent part of the off season working out with Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, and it showed. He faced live hitters for the first time in April in Extended, and, converted to starting, made his first appearance in 22 months for Lansing, throwing a complete game, 7-inning 2-hit/1-run gem in early June, walking none and striking out 7.
Romano was consistent for the Lugs all summer, failing to go at least 3 innings in only 1 of his 14 starts. His 2.11 ERA would have led the Midwest League if he had enough innings to qualify. He walked 27 and fanned 72 in as many innings. I watched Romano's final start of the season, a 10-strikeout command performance over 6.
Romano sits 92-93 with his fastball, and is adept at getting ahead of hitters, commanding both sides of the plate. He can elevate his fastball when he has two strikes on a hitter, but it will be interesting to see how hitters at the next level handle it. At 6'4", he gets good extension and downward plane on his pitches. He complements that fastball with a slider that has good bite, and a change up that improved with each start. Staying ahead of hitters makes his subsequent pitches that much better, and is a key for Romano as he moves up to Dunedin next year.
Harris, Perdomo, and Rios may have been a new version of the Lansing Three earlier in the season, but Borucki, Romano, and Maese formed their own version in the second half.
20. Josh Palacios, OF ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: 4th outfielder Calling Card: outstanding athleticsim
He may not have made the NWL top prospects list, but Palacios may already be one of the best athletes in the organization. The 4th rounder from last June's draft hit .355/.437/.473 for Vancouver, and while scouts forecast a fourth outfielder-type projection for him, it will be interesting to see what a year of full season ball in 2017 will do in terms of developing his bat speed and base running abilities. Palacios has quick hands, looks like a hurdler, and gets around the bases in a hurry.
A sage baseball man once told me when in doubt, go with projection. Palacios may not have drawn rave reviews, but the organization still thought enough of him to take him in the 4th round. There may not be much room for projection left for him in terms of tools, but the athleticism is there - enough to make him worth following when he begins full season play with Lansing next year.
With this year's trade deadline having come and gone, the Blue Jays have managed to both add to their major league roster and minor league depth in the aftermath,
Toronto acquired C Reese McGuire and OF Harold Ramirez in the Francisco Liriano-Drew Hutchison deal at the deadline. The addition of McGuire and Ramirez, who both played at Altoona of the AA Eastern League, gives the organization some much needed upper level help.
Baseball America's evaluation of McGuire prior to the 2013 draft (when the Pirates made him their first pick, 14th over all):
His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power.
That report is essentially still pretty much the same. Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus offers a similar assessment:
The contact ability is there to make him an average (or perhaps slightly above) hitter, but he’s yet to show the kind of power that would stop pitchers from challenging him, and more than his fair share of at-bats end in weak contact. He works deep counts and shows an advanced approach at the plate, and will flash average raw power in BP, so there’s something to latch onto for the dreamers out there..
Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, in response to a fellow prospects blogger tweeted:
@Tammy_Beth According to my source, the best defensive catcher he's seen in the Minors.
There was hope for his bat after a .294/.379/.412 performance against top competition in the Arizona Fall League last year, but he remains a defence-first prospect. McGuire has hit all of 4 Home Runs in over 1400 minor league plate appearances, and the line he has posted in AA this year of .259/.337/.346 is right around his career average.
McGuire is a premium athlete, is faster than the average Catcher (and combines that with great base running smarts), and his skills alone behind the plate should translate into a career as at least an MLB back up. At 21, there's a tiny little window of projection remaining, and the tools are there for improved offensive performance, and with Russell Martin signed for three years beyond this season, there's no need to rush him. With Max Pentecost still limited to DH duties with Lansing, McGuire becomes the top receiving prospect in the organization, and provides some much-needed insurance should Martin be felled by a serious injury. McGuire will move to New Hampshire, where he will get to work with prospects Conner Greene and Shane Dawson.
At first glance, Ramirez looked like a throw-in to consummate the deal. But the stocky, muscular outfielder who can play all three OF spots (but will likely end up in LF as an MLBer) has hit (.304/.362/.409 for his career) everywhere he has played. A seven-figure signing out of Colombia in 2011, Ramirez is not spectacular, has not shown much power or a willingness to draw walks, but he puts the ball in play, and with the Pirates as deep in Outfielders at the major and minor league levels as any club in the majors, Ramirez was deemed expendable in order to obtain Hutchison. Ramirez will also head to New Hampshire, and should help bolster their lineup considerably.
Here's a display of his gap power:
While neither player can be considered blue-chippers, both are on several Top 100 lists, and they would slot into the middle of the Blue Jays rankings. More importantly, they help build the club's stockpile of mid-tier prospects - ones that can be used as currency in further dealings, or one day help the club either as 40-man or end of the 25-man roster players. J.J. Cooper, Managing Editor of BA, loved the deal:
There are legit questions over whether Reese McGuire will ever hit. But he can defend, so has some value as a C.
