Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

   Roberto Osuna made a triumphant return from rehabbing an injured elbow to lead the Low A Lansing Lugnuts to a split of their doubleheader with West Michigan.  Osuna was diagnosed with a torn UCL in early May, and was sent to Florida for treatment.  It was feared that Tommy John surgery might be needed, but the regimen of rest and arm strengthening seemed to have worked, as Osuna blanked thenWhite Caps over 5 innings, allowing only 2 hits, walking none and striking out 5.
He threw 57 pitches, 39 for strikes.
   In Erie, Marcus Stroman was also sizzling for AA New Hampshire,  allowing 1 run over 5 innings, giving up 4 hits and 3 walks, striking out 9, as Fisher Cats topped the Sea Wolves, 3-2.  Stroman threw 91 pitches, 55 of them for strikes. Stroman had to sit out 50 games over this year and last for a positive PED test, returning to action last month.  The Jays first round pick in 2012, many scouts had deemed the Duke righthander as the pick closest to major league- ready.  While the major league rotation has straightened itself somewhat, Stroman could still get the call to the bigs before the end of the season.
   Not all the prospect news was good yesterday, however.  Lefthander Daniel Norris, who sported an ERA of 1.29 over his last 5 starts, had to leave with two outs in the bottom of the 2nd in the Lugnuts' opening game against West Michigan.  Reports indicate that he was pointing to his hip as the trainer came out to the mound, so removing him from the game may have been precautionary.

A Fine Night for Pitching

   The Blue Jays received stellar efforts from a number of pitchers at several levels of the organization last night.
   The major league team, of course, overcame a rare blown save by Casey Janssen to outlast Texas 4-3 in a club-record tying 18 innings.  The bullpen, which has been lights out of late, blanked the Rangers through the extra frames, receiving strong efforts from recent call-ups Dustin McGowan, Juan Perez, and Neil Wagner.
   In the minors, Lansing righthander Kramer Champlin took a perfect game into the bottom of the 7th, as the Lugnuts blanked West Michigan in both ends of a doubleheader.  Champlin, making just his first start of the season as the club faced a pair of twin bills this weekend, lost his bid for perfection when Shortstop Emilio Guerrero got caught on an in-between hop on a ball hit by West Michigan's Devon Travis which was ruled a hit.
   Undaunted, Champlin struck out Jeff Holm looking to finish with a one-hitter. He finished with a season high 10 strikeouts.  Taken by the Jays in the 33rd round of the 2011 draft from Weetern Nevada JC, Champlin has pitched mostly out of the bullpen since turning pro.  He pitched with Lansing last year, posting a 4-1 record with a 4.09 ERA.
  In the opening game, starter Ben White blanked the Whitecaps 3-0. White gave up 5 hits, walked only 1, and struck out 7, and evened his record for the season at 3-3.
   And at New Hampshire, lefthander Sean Nolin picked up where he left off before making a start for the parent club in May, as the Fisher Cats defeated Erie, 6-2.  Nolin, who lasted only an inning and a third in his big league debut against the Orioles, was roughed up by Binghamton in his return to the Eastern League, but showed a solid return to season form against the Sea Wolves.  Nolin pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 hits, 2 runs (only 1 earned), didn't walk a batter, and struck out 9, getting the win.  For the season, Nolin is 3-1, with a 2.87 ERA.  In 31 innings since being activated from the DL at the start of May, Nolin has struck out 35, with a 1.26 WHIP.  Eastern League batters are hitting .254 against him.
 

Minor League Pitcher Abuse Points

  "Pitching is an unnatural act that invites injury.

The stress that it places on the bones of the shoulder, arm, and back is immense.

The strain it places on the 36 muscles that attach to the humerus, clavicle, and scapula is remarkable.

It is widely accepted by sports medicine practitioners that every pitch causes at least some amount

of damage to the system"

-"The Injury Nexus," by Nate Silver and Will Carroll, The Baseball Prospectus, Feb. 26th, 2003

   The rash of injuries the Jays' pitchers have been experiencing at both the major and minor league levels has caused us to wonder about the whole issue of shoulder and elbow mishaps.  Why do these injuries happen ?  How do they happen ?  Is there a way to predict when and if they will happen ?  Are these injuries preventable ?
   That's a pretty lofty set of questions to answer, and we don't have any medical training beyond basic first aid/CPR/Defib, so we'll rely on the internet to help answer some or all of these questions.

   The most common pitching injuries occur to the elbow or shoulder.  In the elbow, the Ulnar Collateral Ligament often starts with a small tear that slowly grows over time, until a major tear takes place.  "Tommy John" surgery is used to correct this, taking a ligament from somewhere else in the body to replace the torn UCL.   In the shoulder, injuries can occur to the capsule/ligaments, the rotator cuff, and the labrum.  Sometimes rest and physiotherapy overcomes these injuries, and sometimes surgery is the only answer.

Is There a Way to Predict These Injuries ?
   Rany Jazayerli of BP coined the term Pitcher Abuse Points as early as 1998.  Jazayerli studied pitch counts and injury data, and came to the conclusion that the number of innings or pitches thrown is not the issue - it's the number of pitchers a pitcher throws after he becomes tired, when his mechanics get sloppy, his muscles are sore, and his body isn't able to handle the stress of each successive pitch.  All of these factors put increased risk on the major components of a pitcher's arm - the bones, muscles, ligaments, and tendons involved in the process of throwing a pitch.  Jazayerli developed a point system (Pitcher Abuse Points) to determine the wear and tear on a pitcher's throwing arm over a season.
    Here's how his first point system looked:

Situation                                                                           PAP/pitch
pitches 1-100                                                                          0
pitches 101-110                                                                      1
pitches 111-120                                                                      2
pitches 121-130                                                                      3
pitches 131-140                                                                      4
pitches 141-150                                                                      5

   Using this method, a 115 pitch outing would result in 20 PAP's, a 120 pitch outing is worth 30 points, etc. Of course, no one throws anywhere close to 150 pitches in a game anymore (or even approaches it), so his points system is a little outdated.  His first list in 1998 was populated by veteran pitchers like Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling.  The "young" pitchers on his most "abused" young pitchers list featured names like Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez, and Jesus Sanchez, 2 of whom went on to have fairly long careers despite the early apparent misues.  So, although Jazayerli was among the first to systematically study pitch and inning counts and their relationship to injury, it's hard to say that his first efforts made a definitive link between the two.  Just the same, a strong correlation between pitcher fatigue and injury risk was established.
   Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci took this concept one step further when he developed the Year After Effect (sometime mistakenly called the Verducci Effect; he didn't coin this latter term).  Citing the research of Oakland pitching coach Rick Patterson, Verducci noted that a number of pitchers under the age of 25 experienced arm problems when their innings pitched increased more than 30 from the previous season.   Verducci freely admits that this is not a scientific study, but he does use the rule of thumb approach to identify young pitchers who are at an increased risk of injury to a jump in IP of more than 30 from the year before.  Other researchers have debunked Verducci's lists, and even though it doesn't factor in pitch counts like Jazayerli's PAP does, the Year After Effect is still a good guideline, and most clubs (like the Jays), follow that principle.



   To that end, here's a quick look at the increase in IP for a number of Jays pitching prospects (under the age of 25) over the last several years:

pitcher                                  2009 IP       2010 IP   2011 IP    2012 IP
Kyle Drabek                              158*       162         154          71        (*limited to 32 IP in '08)
Drew Hutchison                             -          68         149          74
Chad Jenkins                                  -        141*       167         114       (*92 IP in college '09)
Deck McGuire                              -            -           104*       144       (*112 IP in college '10)
John Stilson                                   -           -              -          104*    (*91 IP in college '11)
Sean Nolin                                    -           21*        108         101      (*84 IP in college in '10)
Aaron Sanchez                              -           25           54           90
Roberto Osuna                             -            -             19           43
Daniel Norris                                -             -             -            42
Chase DeJong                              -             -             -             12
Tyler Gonzales                             -             -            -              15

   While the list above is not meant to be comprehensive, a few things do jump out.  First of all, given Hutchison's huge jump in IP between 2010 and 2011, it shouldn't come as a surprise that his UCL gave out in 2012.  Even though he has an advanced feel for pitching which prompted his rapid rise to the major league rotation (as did a lack of depth in the system), Hutch must have thrown a lot of pitches when he was past the point of fatigue.  Sean Nolin also had a huge increase in innings from his first pro season to his second, although he did throw 84 innings in his final college campaign. Of note are the IP for Roberto Osuna (more on him later) and Daniel Norris - Osuna is currently out with a torn UCL, while Norris is about to surpass his IP from last year after only  the 2nd month of the season. It will be interesting to see what happens with both.  Osuna is currently rehabbing in Florida, and has thrown off a mound, and word was received just today that he was on his way back to Lansing.  And we wonder if and when Norris will be shut down for the season. De Jong and Gonzales will likely come in right around the mid 40s in IP.
   So, the above data really doesn't emphatically prove the Year After Effect beyond Hutchison's injury, but it's still a very good guideline to follow.  A major weakness, of course, is the fact that it doesn't really factor in pitch counts; 30 extra innings can be quite different for a groundball pitcher than they could be for a power pitcher.

Why do These Injuries Happen?
  Shoulder and elbow injuries, as we have noted, tend to be brought on be a combination of fatigue and bad mechanics.  The injuries tend to be more prevalent in younger, growing pitchers - Silver and Carroll identifed 23 as the age in which the risk for the average pitcher tends to decrease, while Verducci puts it at 25.  To be sure, :

   As an athlete matures, his bones calcify and harden, his growth plates close, and his ligaments reach full strength. Since no athlete matures on the same schedule as another, it is important to note that chronological age does not always directly correlate to physical age.
-Silver and Carroll

    And with the rise of travel teams and continent-wide showcases and young players playing a lot of ball at a young , Robert Dvorchak, in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette describes a scene at the office of Dr James Andrews - the famous Tommy John doc:

When the parents of a young pitcher with a damaged arm visit his clinic, Andrews has them write on a chalkboard when the child started pitching, how many teams he's played for, what baseball camps he attended, how much extra throwing he does in the back yard and other items pertinent to his pitching background. In extreme cases, he found that youngsters are taking off only two weeks a year -- Thanksgiving and Christmas – while concentrating exclusively on baseball.

"I point to that blackboard and tell them why their child is seeing me for surgery. That's when the light goes on for them," Andrews said. "No 13-year-old should have that kind of wear and tear on his arm."

 
   So, for some young pitchers, the damage may have already started before they even enter pro ball.  Even with proper mechanics, if they have faced excessive workloads, and haven't had adequate recovery time, the risk becomes higher.  Many clubs, like the Jays, will limit their draftees' first pro season in order to overhaul their mechanics.  Osuna was criticized by some scouts for having a high elbow during the early cocking phase of his delivery, then throwing across his body in order to complete it:

    Osuna was pitching in the Mexican League at 16 (when he threw 19 innings), so he may have developed wear and tear issues this season as a result of throwing a lot of pitches year round from an early age.  The UCL tends to occur as a series of small progressive tears over time, and then it finally lets go, as it did in Osuna's case.  So, he was under the 30 innings increase limit, but much of the damage may have already been done. The good news is that he's not even of draft age until next year, so there is lots of time for rehab and recovery, if surgery is ultimately necessary.


Are These Injuries Preventable ?
   As far as the research we've done is concerned, the answer is yes.  And no.
You can teach proper mechanics and monitor pitch counts and innings closely, but there are no guarantees, especially for American pitchers, many of whom have had a heavy workload since they were about 11 or 12.
   The website thecompletepitcher.com offers the following guidelines for youth pitchers:

       1. No youth pitcher should be throwing the curveball before 14 years old. 
       2. No sliders before 18 years old. 
       3. The change-up is not considered any more stressful than the fastball and should be utilized in 

           place of the curve or slider.                . 
       4. Monitor pitch counts.

   The Cubs organization, apparently, takes a further step of limiting their minor league pitchers' activity between appearances.  Their general rule of thumb is:

     If a pitcher throws 25 pitches in an outing, he has to wait 24 hours before throwing again.

     For 35 pitches, 48 hours, 72 hours for 60 pitches, and four days for pitch counts above 75.

     Starters are on a 5-day rotation, and no pitcher throws more than 100-125 pitches in a game.

   The Jays employed a "piggybacking" system to protect three of their top pitchers (Sanchez, and the departed Syndergaard and Nicolino) at Low A Lansing for part of a season last year.  One of the three would start, and would be relieved by one of the other two after he reached his pitch/inning count, and the reliever would, in turn, be relieved by the third.  The trio took turns with their roles, so they learned to come into games in higher leverage situations with runners on base.  The system worked well to build up arm strength for all three, until the piggybacking was ended in July that year, and each worked as starters.

   Syndergaard and Nicolino are enjoying success in High A this year, as was Sanchez, until he was sidelined in early May by shoulder issues.  Reports are that he is ready to return to action soon.  

  No franchise better understands how to identify, develop and maintain quality pitchers than the Rays.  They are to pitching what Google is to algorithms, and—under owner Stuart Sternberg, president Matt Silverman and general manager Andrew Friedman, all of whom came to baseball from the investment banking world—nearly as protective of their proprietary knowledge.

 Tom Verducci, "The Rays Way," Sports Illustrated, April 1, 2013

   Verducci penned an excellent article about the Rays' methodology and philosophy of developing pitchers.  The Rays prefer their pitchers to be tall, lean, and athletic.  The drills they use promote balance and a repeatable delivery.  They preach the value of the changeup, and focusing not on the first pitch to a hitter in trying to get ahead in the count, but the the first three.  As far as maintenance goes, they have a 30-minute daily regimen using dumbbells, resistance bands, and weigthed balls, somewhat similar to the Jays' Steve Delabar's heavy ball program that pitchers like Brett Cecil and Dustin McGowan have credited with their turnarounds.  The Rays put their first year pitchers on strict pitch/inning restrictions: no throwing a cutter (they are allowed once they have reached Double A), pitching in a six-man rotation, and limited to three inings per outing in the first month, four innings in his second, and five innings (but no more than 75 pitches) in the third month.  As a result, the Rays have a league-leading five man homegrown rotation, and haven't used a starter over 30 from another organization over the past five years.

   Granted, David Price was shut down last month with a strained triceps muscle, and just received permission to throw off of a mound this week, but it's very hard to argue with the Rays' results.  They are one of the best organizations in baseball as far as selecting, developing, and keeping young pitchers healthy.  There are no guarantees, but their model should serve as a template for other teams.

Conclusion

   We've covered a fair amount of ground, but admittedly, this is a complex topic.

If we were in running a major league organization, we would recommend a multi-faceted approach:

1.  Scouting

   We would instruct scouts to look for the body types that the Rays seem to have mastered the talent for identifying;  pitchers that are long, lean, and athletic.  The first two are important for developing a downward plane on their pitches, the third is crucial for coming up with the ability to repeat an effective delivery that minimizes stress on their arms.  

  We would also be wary of young pitchers who have been, for lack of a better word,  misused since a young age (not difficult during this day and age of showcase tournaments across America): pitchers who have accumulated a lot of innings since their youth, and/or have been allowed to throw a curve and slider.  

2.  Development

   We would put in place the strictest of pitch and innings limits for first year pitchers (with some flexibility built in for college pitchers) .  Some would argue that pitch counts don't allow for a young pitcher to learn how to get out of trouble.  We would counter that if you take the long term view of development, there is plenty of time for that as the pitcher progresses through the system.

3.  Maintenance

   We would instruct all clubs in the organization to teach their pitchers to pay as much attention to their in-between outings routines as they do to the days they pitch. Enforce mandatory rest times after each outing, depending on the number of pitches.  Convince the pitchers it is in their best interests to pay attention to strength, cardio, and flexibility training on a year-round basis.  

  The above, of course, is no guarantee against injury.  Most clubs, we're sure, are using this approach.  Obviously, there is a huge variance in the extent to which they're employing it.  Selecting the right pitchers in the first place would be the biggest challenge.  

                                           
 

Prospects Heading to Short Season

   In April, Clutchlings came out with the Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects.  We've focused exclusively on that group, and a few players who have merited consideration for inclusion in that group (we're talking about you, Kevin Pillar.  Maybe Andy Burns, too) since the start of the season.
   We didn't do a Top 20 list, because most of the players on it, given the relative lack of depth in the minor league system, won't be starting their seasons until sometime in the next week or so, when short season and rookie ball campaigns open in the Gulf Coast, Appalachian, and Northwest Leagues.
   In no particular order, here are 9 players we're looking forward to reading about, and hoping to see at least a few of when we make a visit to Vancouver in early July:  Ranking them based on the small sample sizes they accrued at the rookie level isn't realistic or fair to us, so let's not worry about their minor league numbers from last year.

Chase DeJong rhp
   DeJong was the Jays 2nd pick out of California high school in the 2012 draft.  DeJong is a tall (6'4"), athletic pitcher, with the type of build Tampa Bay seems to prefer. Drafted in the 2nd round, but received a bonus comparable to a first rounder.  Lots of projection here. Touches 92 on the gun, curve and change are works in progress.  Keith Law is high on DeJong.  Limited to 12 innings in the GCL last year. Will start the season again in the GCL, should easily reach Bluefield by mid-season.

Tyler Gonzales, rhp
  A sandwich round pick (60th overall) out of Texas High School in 2012.  Fastball sits low to mid 90s, with a good slider.  Changeup still developing.  Another power arm on a projectable frame.  Some scouts see a future for him in the bullpen. Saw brief action in the GCL as well last year. Should follow a developmental path similar to DeJong's.

Alberto Tirado, rhp
   Pitched in the Appy League as a 17 year old last year.  A relatively cheap and unheralded International signing out of the Dominican in 2011, Tirado had a jump in velocity last year. The club lowered his arm slot last year, and it added bite to his slider, which is his second-best pitch after his fastball. Lack of size is a concern.  Will likely start with Bluefield, but if he repeats his success of last year, could advance to Vancouver.

Franklin Barreto, ss
   A huge bonus signing out of Venezuela, widely regarded as one of the best International signings of 2012.  His speed and bat are plus tools - numerous scouts have projected him as a .300 hitter. His arm is strong, but his footwork doesn't project well as short, and a move to second or centrefield is possibly in his future. Only 17, he played only in instructional league games last year, and will open the season with the GCL Blue Jays. One of the best U18 prospects in the game.

Jacob Anderson of
   A sandwich round pick in 2011, Anderson tore up the GCL in a brief stint in 2012, but struggled at Bluefield. Given the high opinions many had about him in his draft year, there still is plenty of hope.  Will start the season at Bluefield, and should benefit from repeating that level.

Mitch Nay 3b
    Nay was Arizona's HS Gatorade Player of the Year in 2012.  Another 2012 sandwich round pick (58th overall), Nay didn't play last summer because of wrist and back ailments.  Nay has a compact, powerful stroke.  He likely will start in the GCL, but could move quickly to better competition at Bluefield.

   Adonys Cardona and DJ Davis already are members of our Top 10 list, but like the above prospects have yet to make their 2013 debuts.  The same goes for two-sport athlete Anthony Alford, who is not in our Top 10 list, but has perhaps the best tools in the system.

   

MLB Player Draft: Who Will the Jays Take?

  The Major League first year player draft is mere days away.  Mock drafts around the 'web have been conducted and posted.  So, who will the Jays take with their first round pick, 10th overall ?
    Dunno.
   Sorry, we should come up with a more definitive answer than that, but we feel that there are a couple of factors that make a prediction all but impossible.  If the Jays were picking, say, in the top 5, a selection would be fairly easy, but there may or may not be players on the board at pick number 10 that we would consider.
   Last year, the Jays pursued a strategy of drafting potentially high-ceiling players, who were not without a high amount of risk.  With 6 of the first 81 picks, that strategy was more reasonable - if a Matthew Smoral decided to not sign, a Mitch Nay behind him probably would, or at least the club would have more of a bonus to offer Nay. Two years ago, they had more money to dissuade Daniel Norris from his college plans after top pick Tyler Beede turned the Jays' final offer down in favour of attending Vanderbilt. This year, the Jays have no compensation "sandwich" round picks, and the "back up" plan may not be such a good idea.
   Just the same, even though this year's draft probably should be dedicated to rebuilding some of the depth the organization traded away in last off season's deals, the Jays are not a club to shy away from a player who has been deemed a tough sign, or whose skills are abundant but still raw.
   So - who does it makes sense for them to take ?  That might be an easier answer.
To us, Washington HS catcher Reese McGuire fills both the need for a premium talent, and would help plug a  gaping hole in the organization.  Even though the club likes to take its time with high school players, McGuire could rise in the system very quickly, maybe making it to the majors at some point in the 2016 season.
  Trey Ball is another high-end player and power arm the club covets.  While his rise in the system might not be as rapid as McGuire's, he would add to the stable of arms the club is assembling in the lower levels of the farm system.
   Another high schooler who a number of mock drafts have had going to the Jays is Georgia outfielder Austin Meadows.  His defensive skills may necessitate a shift from center to left as he matures, but he has advanced batting skills.
   California prep shortstop J.P. Crawford has been labelled the best prep shortstop in the draft, and has been linked to the Jays in the past week or so. His cousin is Dodger's leftfielder Carl Crawford.  Nice blood lines.
   Arkansas right-handed pitcher Ryne Stanek has also been slotted for the Jays by some mock drafts.
Earlier this spring, he was in top 5 territory, but inconsistency, which Keith Law links to the school's insistence on Stanek using his slider, has led to mediocre results.  Law projects Stanek as a #2 starter once he reaches the pros, and sticks with his curve.
   A few mock drafts have had the Jays selecting Meadows' fellow Georgian high school outfielder Clint Frazier.  This is mildly surprising, as Frazier has been in or around the top 5 for most of the spring.  He has a similar toolset to Meadows, with more projected power.
   So, it depends on what approach the Jays take, at least with their top pick.  It also depends, of course, on who is still on the board.  With their middle round picks, it's easy to suggest that they will follow last year's strategy of drafting low-ceiling college grads with little or no leverage, using the savings to go after more tough signs (ie., high-rated high schoolers with strong college commitments) in the later rounds.
   Any of the above players would be a good fit for the organization - if they're still on the board.
   Clutchlings' preferred player, Texas high school pitcher Kohl Stewart fits the club's bill on two counts - a power arm, with a college (Texas A & M) commitment.  Some clubs may be scared off by the fact that Stewart dreams of playing quarterback - good luck unseating Johnny Football.  At the same time, Stewart is very likely to have been chosen before the 10th pick.
   Whoever they pick, even though this has not been rated the deepest draft the handicappers have ever seen, at #10 they should nab a premium player.  It will be the work in the second and third days of the draft that will be important in restocking the system.
 

D.J. Davis - Speed to Burn, but What About the Bat?

      The Blue Jays selected Mississippi HS outfielder DJ Davis with the 17th pick of the 2012 draft.  Davis was not originally ranked that high by Baseball America or Keith Law, but he developed a heavy dose of helium in the weeks prior to the draft, and shot up the rankings.
   Davis signed for a $1.75 million bonus, and reported to the Jays' GCL team.  Davis wound up progressing through three levels last summer, finishing his season off with short season Vancouver. For the season, he hit a combined .233/.339/.374.
    Davis grades out at an 80 for his speed, which is easily the best tool in his arsenal.  He has top of the order, game-changing speed.  JJ Cooper of BA mused on Twitter the other night that no one had been asking him to compare a prospect's speed to another Mississippi high school grad - Reds' prospect Billy Hamilton, who set a minor league record with 155 stolen bases last season:

   So, Davis has speed to burn.  He has much to learn about base stealing, and while his speed covers up mistakes in the outfield, he still has to develop the ability to get better reads on flyballs. His arm, while not powerful, is described as accurate.  Davis' bat is the one tool that is still a huge question mark.

   Last season, he seemed to put things together in a short stint at Bluefield after his promotion from the GCL, but he struggled against higher level prospects at Vancouver.   This spring, there was hope from some that he could open the season in Low A with Lansing, but the club decided that Mississauga native Dalton Pompey was ahead of Davis on the depth chart, and decided to keep Davis in Florida for extended spring training. And realistically, since Davis doesn't turn 19 until July, there really is no need to rush him.

   Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reports that Davis is targeted for a return to Vancouver, which is again likely the best destination for him.  The Northwest League is populated mostly by college grads, so the Jays will be able to fairly quickly and easily get a read on his progress. With Pompey struggling at Lansing after a relatively good start, Davis could jump ahead of him if his play at Vancouver warrants a promotion. Or if he's joined at Vancouver by a number of other top level prospects in the Lower Mainland, and the two-time defending NWL champs  field another strong entry, Davis could spend the whole season there (Anthony Alford claims he's going to start in Vancouver, but that seems unlikely). 

   Davis has been compared to Hamilton in a number of ways, and it's probably a fair comparison.  Both were somewhat unknown in terms of their bats because of the lower level of competition in Mississippi, and both were graded at 80 speed.  Hamilton has progressed to AAA, but the Reds haven't rushed him, and it looks as if his bat has taken a step backward this year.

   The most likely approach is for the Jays to continue to take their time with Davis.