Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Fangraphs, BA and BP Top 10 Prospect Rankings

   Now that we've taken the jump and ranked our top 10 Blue Jays prospects for 2014, we thought that we would see how some more august evaluators ranked them.   Here's a comparison of the rankings by Fangraphs, Baseball America, and Baseball Propsectus:


Fangraphs
Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
1
Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez
Stroman
2
Marcus Stroman
Stroman
Sanchez
3
Mitch Nay
Davis
Tirado
4
Daniel Norris
Nay
Norris
5
Roberto Osuna
Franklin Barreto
Nolin
6
Alberto Tirado
Norris
Jimenez
7
A.J. Jimenez
Osuna
Barreto
8
D. J. Davis
Tirado
Davis
9
Matt Smoral
Dawel Lugo
Chase DeJong
10
Sean Nolin
Nolin
Jairo Labourt

   BP shows they're not afraid to go out on a limb by picking Stroman over Sanchez.  While there's little debate that Stroman is closer to being ready for MLB than Sanchez is, the consensus seems to be that Sanchez ultimately has the higher ceiling.  Nick Faleris of BP isn't sold on Sanchez, however, and is of the opinion that "with Sanchez I feel like I'm constantly teased with "This might be really great when it clicks and he's spotting and consistently executing the curve."  Even with his strong finish in Arizona, there is some truth to that observation.
   Picking Stroman ahead of Sanchez is not a quantum leap, but it's going out on the edge just the same.  There isn't a long list of righthanded starters under 5'10" who have been successful for a prolonged period of time at the major leage level.  BP guru Jason Parks likes Stroman's overall package over Sanchez' just the same:  "I was eventually persuaded to believe the diminutive arm was not only a starter but a superior prospect, one with an upside similar to Aaron Sanchez, with a more mature arsenal, better all-around feel, and a low risk/high floor if the rotation projection failed to actualize."  So, if starting doesn't work out, Stroman's power stuff would play better in the back of a big league bullpen as a fallback position.
   We're not sure we're comfortable with the pick of Stroman over Sanchez, just the same.  There's only a year's difference in age between the two, but obviously Stroman is ahead on the development curve, largely because of his time at Duke, and the Jays' preference for taking things slowly with their top high school arms. We've argued before that Sanchez was probably going through the normal and necessary ups and downs of minor league life this year.  You have to like Sanchez' size, and the seemingly effortless way the ball explodes out of his hand.
   Another surprise was the inclusion of Nay, who was high up on both BA's and Fangraphs' list, but is nowhere to be found on BP's.  Nay had an impressive pro debut, and was named the Appy League's 4th best prospect.  He was called up to Vancouver for the NWL playoffs, and was the final series MVP.
So, there is a lot to like about Nay.  BP didn't share as high an opinion of Nay, and pointed out his lack of speed as being a negative both in the field and on the bases as he progresses.  Nay didn't make our top 10 list, but he did merit serious consideration, and is solidly in the next tier of prospects.  To us, the upside is there, but we would like to see how he fares over a full season of minor league ball before making the committment to him.
  It's interesting to see that Davis was ranked 8th by Fangraphs and BP, but 3rd by BA, who tabbed him the 2nd best Appy League prospect.  While he was one of the youngest players in both his draft class and his league last year, we were expecting a little more from Davis, and after a hot start, it was disappointing that he tailed off, and didn't get a promotion to Vancouver for the playoffs like his teammates Nay and Dawel Lugo did.  This may have owed more to the fact that there was more of a need for infielders in Vancouver than there was for outfielders, but we would have thought that Davis would have at least benefitted from exposure to that atmosphere. We're somewhere in the middle on our opinion of Davis.  The defense is without question, but the bat is still developing. We're talking about a premium athlete, who isn't necessarily a premium prospect just yet.  That the Cubs were rumoured to be asking about Davis speaks to how other organizations view him.
     We were also a bit surprised that Barreto made BA's list, but not the other two.  Barreto turned many heads with this bat this year, and is no longer flying under the prospect radar.  Questions about his defence and his ultimate position must have influenced Fangraphs and BP to leave him off their lists.
   Fangraphs took a flyer on Smoral, who the Jays snapped up as a first round sandwich pick in 2012, after he had missed all of his senior year of HS with a foot injury that delayed his pro debut until this year.  Smoral had trouble finding the plate consistently in the GCL this summer, but 6'8" lefties who throw in the low to mid 90s tend to get a longer look.  Only 19, Smoral likely will spend time in the GCL for at least part of the summer.  We don't doubt his ability, because he showed flashes of it in Florida, but he's so far away that we didn't include him in our top 10.
   Lugo was an interesting choice by BA.  BA loved Lugo's Bluefield Jays, including 7 of them on their top 20 Appy League prospects list, with Lugo coming in #5.  There is no question about the bat, but like Barreto, his future position is in doubt.  BA did name Lugo as having the best infield arm in the organization.  Lugo hit .297/.317/.469 at Bluefield, and after his late-season callup to Vancouver, Canadians manager Clayton McCullough told Steve Ewen of the Vancouver Province that Lugo has "some serious juice in his bat."  Only 19, we wonder if the Jays will challenge him by sending him to full-season ball at Lansing next year.
   BA and our list are in agreement about A.J Jimenez.  The defense is there, and there seems little doubt that he could play in the bigs right now defensively, but there are concerns about his offence, enough that while we think he does have a big league future, it will be as a back up, unless his bat comes around.
   When it came to our final pick, we had a difficult time choosing between several players.  We ultimately settled on Tirado, and to our relief, the three evaluators seem to agree with us.  Fangraphs calls him "(A) right-hander (who) does a decent job of commanding his low-to-mid-90s fastball and he induces a lot of ground-ball outs. His second best offering is a changeup and his breaking ball is showing signs of improving."
  It's curious to see that Kevin Pillar didn't make any of the lists. Fangraphs had him at #14 last year (prior to the trades).  Perhaps his 100+ AB in the bigs eliminates his propsect status, but he's still a prospect to us, and you have to give him props for far how he's come in a very short time.
  BP went out a little bit further on a limb by taking DeJong and Labourt at the end of their list, but neither one is that much of a stretch.  Labourt was dominant at times at Bluefied, and struck out 10 in 5 plus innings for Vancouver in the playoffs. DeJong struck out 66 Appy batters in 55 innings.  Both are the long, lean and athletic type of builds that the Blue Jays covet.



















Friday, December 6, 2013

Grouping Prospects by Major League Readiness

   

When looking at a farm system, it's useful to group its prospects into three broad categories, all based on major league readiness.  There's close to ready, for prospects who have either had a brief taste of the majors, or have fared well at AAA (or maybe even AA, since many teams like to skip their top prospects to the bigs from there).  Then there's not-quite-ready, the level for prospects who likely need at least another year (or more) of seasoning, followed by the not ready level - for prospects who show signs of hope, but are still several seasons away.
   We've looked at the top prospects in the Blue Jays system by these three categories, with some comments. We've decided to exclude players like Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra, and Kevin Pillar, who have had varying trials of at least a month.

Close to Ready
A.J. Jimenez
Marcus Stroman
Sean Nolin
John Stilson

  Much has been made of the fact that Jimenez appears ready defensively, but not with the bat.  He put up decent minor league numbers at 2 levels this year, but that was mostly fueled by a strong start.  There are whispers that he is becoming somewhat injury prone, as well.  With Dionner Navarro, Eric Kratz, and Josh Thole ahead of him on the depth chart, Jimenez likely needs more seasoning at Buffalo.
  Stroman might make the team out of spring training, although the club doesn't need to rush to put him on the 40 man, and might keep him at Buffalo for a half season.  Nolin appears on the verge of earning a job in the big league rotation if he has a strong spring.  Stilson likely makes the team if the club deals some of its bullpen depth at the upcoming winter meetings.

Not Quite Ready
Aaron Sanchez
Andy Burns
Kenny Wilson
Daniel Norris
Dalton Pompey
Dwight Smith
Deck McGuire

   Sanchez will be challenged by a promotion to AA this season, and while there have been concerns about his delivery and his control, he seems poised to take off.  He is still at the stage where the club will be limiting his pitches and innings, but more will be expected this season.  Burns made huge strides this season, but will likely spend the year at Buffalo, working on playing a variety of positions.  Wilson had a bounce back year, but needs more seasoning at AAA.  Norris, Pompey, and Smith are a bit further away, and will play at High A next year.  We can see Norris getting a mid season promotion if he continues to progress as he did last year.  Even though he's been a disappointment, we can't give up on former 1st round pick McGuire just yet.  The forgotten man of most prospect lists, he showed signs of putting things together at New Hampshire last year, and while it's a bit of a longshot, we won't be all that surprised if he lives up to his promise at Buffalo this year.

Not Ready
Frankie Barreto
Roberto Osuna
Alberto Tirado
Jairo Labourt
Dawel Lugo
Tom Robson
Shane Dawson
Miguel Castro
Mitch Nay
Richard Urena
Matt Smoral
Adonys Cardona
LB Dantzler
Rowdy Tellez
Chase DeJong

  It's not hard to see that the true strength of the system lies below High A.  We've lumped Osuna in this group, because he won't be pitching again until August, and will likely be at the rookie level.  So, he may be starting all over again in A ball in 2015.  There are some intriguing prospects in this lot, starting with Barreto.  He's one of several shortstops who aren't projected to stay at that position.  Lugo likely will shift to 3rd, while scouts say that Urena is the true shortstop of the group. Tirado made our top 10 list, but may not even progress to full season ball in 2014.  Robson and Dawson are Western Canadians who probably will.
  Some top prospect lists had Nay ranked high, although there are doubts about his defence, and his speed is already below average.  Tellez is the prospect we're most excited about, and wanted to rank him in our top 10, but there's not enough of a body of work to go on to put him there yet.  Smoral and Cardona are long term projects who didn't progress as much as we thought they would this year.  Castro is intriguing, but like Tellez, has only a small sample size to evaluate him on.  DeJong's fastball has not quite shown up yet, but is still well regarded by scouts.
   It's easy to see some of this depth being used in trade talks at next year's winter meetings.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Clutchlings Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects

   Eleven months ago, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous had completed the near-emptying of the club's farm system when he included top prospects Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard in the R.A. Dickey deal, and Justin Nicolino and Jake Marisnick in the Jose Reyes trade.  Months earlier, Anthopolous had started the process with the dealing of a number of prospects to Houston in the J.A. Happ deal.  The Jays' system was thin on both quality and quantity at the same time.
   Despite this, the Jays had a reasonably successful farm system this year, thanks in part due to a successful June draft (despite not signing top pick Phil Bickford, who was taken with the 10th pick).  And with the 9th and 10th pick next year in what is being labelled a deeper prospect pool, the club is poised to return to prominence as a drafter and developer of talent. Baseball America ranked the Jays as the 11th best system after the 2013 season - an impressive achievement, all things considered.
   We bring you, then, our Top 20 Blue Jays Prospects:

1.  Aaron Sanchez
   The resounding thud you may have heard in late August/early September was the crush of supporters leaping off the Aaron Sanchez bandwagon.
   Sanchez missed a month this year due to shoulder issues.  He was a bit rusty when he came back.  And had one outing in July when he was shelled.
   Otherwise, Sanchez had a pretty good year.  Dominant, at times.
   Because fellow prospects and former teammates Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino remained healthy and were promoted to AA, there were many analysts who were quick to dump on Sanchez.  Too upright in his delivery, said some.  Not enough legs in the last phase, said others.  He walks too many.  Not a true ace, more like a #2, at best.
   All of the above was said even though he was lights out in his last two starts with Dunedin, where he was one of the younger pitchers in the league.  And the walks are still high, but were down a full 1.0 walk per 9 innings from 2012.
   The bashing continued in the Arizona Fall League.  In a recent chat, prospect guru Keith Law opined:
 I compared what I saw from Sanchez in Fall League to video from when I saw him in 2012, and it confirmed my initial impression – he’s shortened his stride and is finishing too upright. The Sanchez I’d seen in the past missed bats with his fastball; the one I saw in AZ threw 28 fastballs and didn’t get a single swing and miss on it.
   Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus is apparently off the Sanchez bandwagon, too:
     Sanchez has dynamic stuff, but outings like these have become all too common. He stayed out of trouble on Monday because he doesn’t give up hard contact and misses enough bats, but he was unable to finish the fifth inning. He will be able to get away with poor control more so than most pitchers because his fastball sits in the mid-90s and touches 97 and because he pairs it with a plus breaking ball, but his ceiling will be limited if he doesn’t get it everything under control.
   This in spite of the fact that Sanchez gave up no runs in that start.  Sure, maybe the bullpen saved him, but he gave up no runs for the second straight start.  And was named to the AFL All-Star game. Sanchez finished on a dominant run in Arizona, surrendering only 1 earned run in his last 4 outings.
   Our point is that maybe in this day and age of instant information, some analysts, perhaps trying to stay ahead of the curve, are quick to praise or condemn prospects literally from one outing to the next. Sanchez was pitching over his head a bit in the AFL, but he responded well to the challenge.  When he wasn't on the injured list this season, he showed top of the rotation stuff.  Sanchez throws a mid 90s fastball, and mixes in an elite curve (which he's had trouble controlling) and change.
   This season was a bit of a speed bump for Sanchez. Something all athletes deal with - the elite ones deal with them successfully. He firmly re-established himself in Arizona as a premium prospect. The trials that he endured this season will help him to better the next twist in his road to the majors.

2. Marcus Stroman
   Opinion on Stroman is even more prolonged and sharply divided. The 5'9" fireballer is either a potential back of the bullpen arm, or a future mid to end of the rotation starter.
   The Blue Jays have given Stroman every chance to be a starter, even though the  21st pick in the 2012 draft was predicted by some to have the shortest path to the bigs - as a reliever.  A 50 game PED suspension pushed Stroman's progress back a bit, but he more than made up for lost time when he returned to action in May.
  Stroman was sent to AA New Hampshire's starting rotation to build up his arm strength, and work on his change-up.  Which he did, with resounding success.  When the major league rotation was riddled by injury and inconsistency, there were many calls for Stroman's promotion.
  Here's what one scout had to say about the righthander in August:
   One of the most inspiring minor league pitching performances I’ve seen this year. He’s very athletic on the mound and attacks hitters, shows three plus pitches and plus command. The concerns over the durability are legitimate…go back the last 25 years and you won’t find a right-hander his size that’s been a starter in the league for longer than three years. That said, he seems to feed off those questions and I love guys with a chip on their shoulder. He could compete in the big leagues right now.
   Stroman is used to naysayers who point to his lack of size.  He uses that as fuel to propel him on. Stroman is strong and athletic, and gets a lot of his lower body into his delivery, which should lessen the wear and tear on his arm/shoulder.  Stroman has a deceptive delivery, turning his back to the hitter, making it hard to pick the ball up.  With 3 plus pitches, Stroman should be a lock for the starting rotation, either out of spring training, or at some point in 2014.

3.  Daniel Norris
   This may be a bit of a reach for us.  Norris is a top 10 prospect for sure.  The way he battled through tough outings last year and in April of this shows the character this young man has.  Even though he was born and raised in Tennessee, Norris loves to surf, and his Twitter feed reveals a laid back, So-Cal attitude, with a strong faith that may help him deal with the ups and downs of being a starting pitcher. The kid seems to know how to put things in perspective.
  After the first week of May, Norris was lights out for Lansing, and was the mainstay of the rotation.  The ever-cautious Jays shut him down for a month with elbow tenderness, but he showed no ill effects when he came back, although he was on a 60 pitch limit until late August.  This may have kept us from seeing what Norris is truly capable of, although a pair of starts for playoff-bound Dunedin at the end of the summer gave us a glimpse. His month on the DL, coupled with his slow start, likely cost Norris a spot on BA's top 20 Midwest League prospects list.
  There are some who say Norris profiles as a middle of the rotation starter, or even a reliever.  His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he can dial it up when need be.  He has a plus curve, a change that has come a long way, and he added a slider this year.  He became consistent with his delivery,  release point and control.  We say that middle of the rotation is Norris' floor, and we're looking forward to more from him, likely at High A this year.
 

4.  Sean Nolin
   Nolin profiles as a middle of the rotation innings eater (in a few years at least, for the latter).  And there's nothing wrong with that (see Buehrle, Mark).
   Nolin blew through two levels in the minors in 2012, as well as 2013.  He was called up for a major league start in May, and stage fright may have been the culprit, as he was shelled.  Nolin throws a FB that averages around 91 mph.  He also throws a change, curve and cutter that all profile as "solid average" with the evaluators at Baseball Prospectus.  He has a fluid, repeatable delivery, and his size is ideal for a future rotation regular.
   His numbers for 2013 were comparable to Stroman's.  One or both will likely join the Jays pitching staff at some point in the season.

5.  Kevin Pillar
   Pillar rose so quickly through the minors that we really have never given him the credit he deserves.
He advanced through two levels this year, and got a shot in late August and September with the big club when injuries sidelined all of the starting outfield at one point.
   Pillar hit .307/.353/.461 between New Hampshire and Buffalo.  He was overwhelmed at the major league level, going hitless in his first 13 bats, but finished strong to get over the Mendoza line, ending up with a line of .206/.250/.333 in 102 MLB at bats.
   Pillar has always had the "overachieving fourth outfielder" tag applied to him.  As a 32 round draft choice, he's more than used to battling long odds.  Pillar has speed (not necessarily elite, base-stealing speed), and can play all three outfield positions.  That the Jays let Rajai Davis walk after the season likely opens a spot for Pillar, who offers more versatility, and potentially a more impactful bat.  We're starting to think that the Reed Johnson comps are more of a floor than a ceiling.  This kid has hit at every level.
   As we said in another post, it won't be a bad thing if Pillar gets 300 at bats for this club.  He has risen to every challenge the organization has put in front of him.  He doesn't have one overwhelming tool, but his bat, defensive skills and versatility, coupled with his smarts on the basepaths, will make a strong contribution to the team.

6.  Roberto Osuna
   Osuna's truncated season got off to a dominant start. Pitching as a 17 year old in the Midwest League, where he was the 3rd youngest player, Osuna allowed only 3 earned runs total in 3 of his first 4 starts, striking out 22 batters in 15 innings.  This was on the heels of a spectacular pro debut the season before with Bluefield and Vancouver, the latter of which is still talked about by lower mainlanders.
  And then Osuna was removed from an April 30th start with elbow soreness.  He was diagnosed with a tear of the UCL, and was sent for a month of rest followed by rehab in Florida.  Upon his return in June, it appeared that the strategy worked, as he was back to his dominant self in his first two starts, hitting 97 with his fastball.  He was rocked over his next three starts, however, and was shut down for the season, and underwent Tommy John surgery to replace the damaged ligament.
   The surgery took place in late July, and given the rehab timetable from TJ,  Osuna won't begin even soft-tossing for at least another month.  If the average recovery time is one year, he should be pitching again by sometime late in the summer.
   Since he's ony 18, that's maybe not a huge deal.  Osuna wouldn't even be draft eligible until next June if he was American.  The consensus is that even though he may have something of a high maintenance body, he has electric stuff, and shows an advanced feel for pitching despite his age.  If there is to be a benefit to TJ surgery, it's that most pitchers who have battled back from it have paid more attention to their conditioning, which would be a good thing for Osuna.

7.  D.J. Davis
   Still considered to be very raw, Davis was one of the youngest players in his draft class.  The club has taken things slowly with the 2012 1st round choice.
    All of the other tools in Davis' kit appear to be there in abundance, except for the bat, which is still a work in progress.  Baseball America thinks highly of Davis, and ranked him as the 2nd best prospect in the rookie level Appalachian League this year (although BA admits that this year's class pales in comparison to previous years).  Davis has tremendous range in centrefield, and is considered one of the fastest prospects in all of milb, although that hasn't necessarily translated into high stolen base totals yet.
   The Blue Jays will likely challenge Davis with an assignment to full season ball this year, which should accelerate his development. There are still likely some ups and downs in store for him, however.

8.  Andy Burns
   Burns has always been a sleeper prospect.  This year he woke up.
Burns redshirted his senior year of college after transferring from Kentucky to Arizona.  The year of missed development might have explained the mediocre results at the plate in his first two years of pro ball.  Burns
hit .327/.383/.524 in a half a season at Dunedin, before receiving a promotion to AA New Hampshire.  Predicatably, Burns struggled at first after the promotion, but hit .300 in August, as he adjusted to the higher quality pitching.  To continue his development, Burns was sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he acquitted himself quite well with a .312/.402/.403 line. The power wasn't there, but that's one of the last tools in the box to develop with most prospects.
 Burns was primarily a shortstop in college, but played mostly 3rd this year.  He spent some time at 1st, as well as the corner outfield positions in Arizona as well.  The Jays likely see him as a super utility-type player, who can contribute with the bat as well.  Burns could fill an important minor role with the club by 2015.


9 Franklin Barreto
   Barreto has drawn accolades (mostly for his bat) since he was a youth ball player.  Playing this year at the tender age of 17, Barreto was ranked the 5th best prospect in the GCL by BA.  He joined Bluefield late in the season to help with their playoff run.
   All the signs point to Barreto being a potential top of the order, impact bat.  The problem is, of course, where he ultimately will play.  Barreto has been a shortstop to this point, but his footwork and arm will likely limit his future there.  The plan for at least the next year will be to have Barreto remain at short, but all indications are that a move either to 2nd or the outfield is just a matter of time.  He has a plus arm, which coupled with his speed and baseball sense, could see him patrolling centrefield at the Rogers Centre just as Rogers decides to install grass on the playing surface.
  Barreto is still a number of years away.  The injury of Dickie Thon at Vancouver caused a series of promotions and shuffles that created a spot for Barreto at Bluefield, but we think that the fact that the Jays sent him there at a young age (and having only been in America for a few months) says a lot about his makeup, and that the club thought that he was up for the challenge. He did tail off at Bluefield after a flashy start, but he was one of the youngest players in the league, playing at a premium position for a contending team.

10.  Alberto Tirado
   To tell the truth, we had a hard time making up our minds about this slot, thanks largely to the fact that most of the promising talent in the system is at the lower end of the ladder, making decisions based on relatively small sample sizes.
  We went back and forth on a few prospects, who will be mentioned in a subsequent post, but finally settled on Tirado.  Both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks are extremely high on the young Dominican, who pitched as an 18 year old in the Appy League this summer.  Tirado, with his innings and pitches closely monitored like all young Jays hurlers, threw 48 innings for Bluefield, striking out 44.
   Tirado is not the big bodied pitcher that you can project a heavy workload on at this point, but there is still time for him to grow a bit. Several evaluations of him make mention of his size.  Tirado consistently commands his low to mid 90s FB down in the zone, creating a lot of groundballs. Like most young pitchers, his secondary offerings, headed by his change, are coming along.
   Tirado, who has flown a bit under the prospect radar to this point,  was part of a huge contingent of Bluefield Jays in Baseball America's Top 10 Appy League prospects list, coming in at #8.  As the Jays like to take their time with their young arms, fans in Vancouver have a lot to look forward to this summer, starting with the likes of Tirado.









Monday, December 2, 2013

Trade Talk Involving Prospects ?

   When the Blue Jays acquired R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, and Mark Buehrle without giving up anyone from the major league roster, we were as giddy as the 2 1/2 million fans who went through the turnstiles at the Rogers Centre this season, in anticipation of playoff glory.
   Such was not the case, however, and not only did the Blue Jays not get anywhere close to the post-season, but several of the prospects they gave up in the above deals gave life and hope to their new organizations.  The Mets were buoyed by the acquisition of Noah Syndergaard, who cracked both the Florida State and Eastern League top 10 prospect lists, and started for the American side at the Future Stars game, played at Citi Field during the All-Star break. Catcher Travis d'Arnaud, the Jays top prospect prior to the trade, made his MLB debut late in the season, and while he didn't set the world on fire, he and Syndergaard helped soften the loss of Matt Harvey for Mets fans.
   And the agony for Jays fans doesn't end there.  Outfielder Jake Marisnick made his debut for the Marlins, and Justin Nicolino made the top 10 Florida State League top prospects list as well, and was promoted to AA.
  With rumours abounding that the Jays were considering moving more prospects for Cubs starter Jeff Smardzija, it begs the question of whether or not trading prospects is a good idea.  The answer, of course, depends on the contending status of the team willing to trade them.  The Jays thought that they were on the cusp on contending last fall, and were just a few pieces away from a title.  In that case, improving your roster for players not on your 40 man makes sense.  Prospects, after all, are just that, and the players the Jays dealt away (with the exception of d'Arnaud) didn't fit with the slim window for winning the club was faced with.
And prospects don't always pan out.  Here's a list of Baseball America's minor league players of the year since 2000:
 
2000Jon Rauch, rhp, Winston-Salem/Birmingham (White Sox)
2001Josh Beckett, rhp, Brevard County/Portland (Marlins)
2002Rocco Baldelli, of, Bakersfield/Orlando/Durham (Devil Rays)
2003Joe Mauer, c, Fort Myers/New Britain (Twins)
2004Jeff Francis, lhp, Tulsa/Colorado Springs (Rockies)
2005Delmon Young, of, Montgomery/Durham (Devil Rays)
2006Alex Gordon, 3b, Wichita (Royals)
2007Jay Bruce, of, Sarasota/Chattanooga/Louisville (Reds)
2008Matt Wieters, c, Frederick/Bowie (Orioles)
2009Jason Heyward, of, Myrtle Beach/Mississippi/Gwinnett (Braves)
2010Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Durham/Charlotte (Rays)
2011Mike Trout, of, Arkansas (Angels)
2012Wil Myers, of, Northwest Arkansas/Omaha (Royals)

  While that's a decent group of players, you can't call any of them other than Trout franchise players. 
 Dealing prospects, then, does make sense.  In the right situation.  The risk, of course, is that the players you deal for don't bring about the expected results, and/or the prospects dealt develop faster (or better) than had been thought.  To get quality, you have to give up quality.  Which is why we don't think dealing any of the Jays top prospects for Smardzija is wise.  We're not sure the return is worth it. David Price is the other name attracting a lot of attention in the rumour mill, but Tampa would likely demand several top prospects, and given his recent injury history, we're not sure that's good value, either.  Dealing prospects also can cause problems in the parent club runs into injury troubles, or if a player on the big club struggles.  Nicolino and Syndergaard may not have helped in either of these regards, but Marisnick and d'Arnaud certainly would've.
   There do appear to be two types of trades involving prospects.  There's the to-get-quality-you-have-to-give-up-quality type, as in the Dickey trade.  High-end talents from the system are given up to get a proven, first division major leaguer.  Then there's the quantity type of deal, where a team gives up a flock of minor leaguers, few of whom have high ceilings, but the team acquiring them is in development mode, and is selling off assets that don't fit into their long range plans.  That would be the case the the J.A. Happ deal the Jays made with Houston last year. The Blue Jays also pretty much emptied their farm system in the last half of 2012, in the deals with the Mets, Marlins, and Astros.  They weakened it from both a quality and quantity perspective.  Fortunately, their appears to be a wealth of arms close to making their full season debuts next season, so the system is on the upswing.  To support those players, however, you need to have a solid core of both position player and prospects and quality org guys.   While development takes priority over winning in the minors, you don't want your prized prospects to be on a team that loses twice as many games as they win.
  So, is the time right for the Jays to deal prospects, either from a quality or a quantity viewpoint ?  In our opinion, no.  While the system is on the rise again, it's too early to deal top talent like Sanchez, Stroman, or Davis (especially for someone like Smardzija).  And dealing talent from outside of the top 10 really would weaken the organization.  Most of those players would be toiling at the lower levels of the system, and after the success of Vancouver and Bluefield this year, the club on the next rung of the ladder, Lansing, is poised to have a breakout, prospect-laden season.
 How does the club improve, then?  By pursuing under-valued free agents, and by using some of their bullpen depth at the major league level to acquire an end of the rotation starter, and by hoping for a return to form for Dickey and Brandon Morrow, and that one or both of Sean Nolin or Marcus Stroman make significant contributions to the pitching staff.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Out in Leftfield - And Beyond

   When we think of the top Blue Jays outfield prospects, we really don't think about Anthony Gose or Moises Sierra, which is probably a good thing, because they have 342 and 279 major league plate appearances, respectivley.  Gose's potential seems to always just be beyond his grasp; his mediocre minor league numbers this year diminished what was left of his prospect status, but he performed well enough in his late season audition that the club has to be thinking about him as an eventual replacement for Colby Rasmus.  Sierra, for his part, is immensely physically talented, but his baseball IQ is limited, and his performance may never match his toolkit.
   The Blue Jays have focussed on pitching in the Alex Anthopolous draft era, and it shows in the following list, to be frank. The highest-ranked outfield prospect the Jays have drafted since 2009 is Jake Marisnick, who was drafted in the 3rd round in 2009, and made his MLB debut with the Marlins this summer after being dealt in the Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrele/Emilio Bonafacio trade last off-season.
  That the Blue Jays have opted to focus on pitchers in the top rounds is not new, nor is it surprising.  Many other organizations (see Baltimore and Tampa Bay, to name two),  have a "grow the arms and buy the bats" philosophy.  Scouting a college or even a high school pitcher is an easier process than evaluating a position player.  If you reach 95 with your fastball, you reach 95. If your curve has a big enough bite and a large enough differential from your fastball, you'll do that anywhere.  You hit .455 in high school competition in, say, Oregon, and you may not hit that in California.  Pitchers have exemplars that are easier to measure and evaluate.  Drafting a top prep hurler represents less risk, in most cases, than drafting a high ranking high school outfielder not named Byron Buxton.

1.  Kevin Pillar
   Pillar has overachieved from his pro debut, and his rapid rise culminated with a month-plus in the bigs this fall.
  His struggles at the plate in the majors were well-documented.  That shouldn't take away from the fact that he can hit, and will likely continue to do so, although maybe not at the level he did in the minors.
  Pillar can play all three outfield positions well.  He can run, although his speed isn't blazing.
  He has had the "fourth outfielder" label applied, but if he gets 350 at bats, he won't hurt this team.

2.  DJ Davis
  Davis was called the best Mississippi prep product since Charlie Hayes, and while maybe that's more of a reflection on the state where football is king, many scouts drool over Davis' toolkit.
   The Jays have started him very slowly, with  2012 1st round pick Davis having spent most of his first two pro seasons in rookie ball.
  Davis anchored the outfield and lead off for a strong Bluefield team this year, and showed some surprising pop.  He got off to a strong start, but sagged late in the season, to finish .240/.355/.386.  Davis has struck out 146 times in 453 at bats over his two milb seasons.  He is considered one of the fastest players in minor league ball after Kenny Hamilton, but that still hasn't translated into high stolen base totals.
  Davis was one of the youngest players in his draft class, and didn't turn 19 until mid-season.  His performance didn't deter Baseball America, which named him the 2nd best prospect in the Appalachian League.  Scouts are still very high on Davis.  We still see the odd Kenny Lofton reference, and we'll take it.  Davis is still a few years away (2017, by our best guess), but he may prove to be well worth the wait.

3.  Kenny Wilson
  Injuries limited Wilson to 60 games this season.  Sent to Arizona this fall to make up for some lost at bats, Wilson acquitted himself reasonably well.  Speed is a huge part of Wilson's game, as his 55 steals in a breakout 2012 season at Lansing proved.  Even though he hasn't advanced past AA in 6 milb seasons, the Jays thought enough of the 2008 2nd round pick to place him on the 40 man roster this month.  With his speed and athleticism, he may have been scooped up in the Rule 5 draft.  Wilson is only a .231 hitter through his time in the minors to date, but at 23, there's still some time for his bat to come around.

4.  Dwight Smith, Jr
   The 2012 sandwich pick struggled in his first pro year in 2012, but responded well to the challenge of playing full season ball at Lansing.  Smith hit a solid .284/..365/.388 at Lansing, with 25 steals in 30 attempts.  Smith caught fire as the season ended, hitting .322/.393/.438 in August.  He is a line-drive hitter, who hits to all fields.  Smith has no one tool that jumps out, but has an advanced feel for the game.
   Like his father, Smith should make a contribution to a major league team as at least a fourth outfielder.

5.  Dalton Pompey
   The Mississauga native made huge strides in his fourth minor league season, playing as a 20 year old in full season ball at Lansing.
   Pompey hit .261/.358/.394, and was 38-48 in steals, and played a solid centre field.  The switch hitter is still a bit behind American prospects his age, but Pompey is making up for lost time quickly.  Like Smith, he had a hot August - at one point, he scored nine consecutive times when reaching base.

6.  Chaz Frank
The 22nd round pick out of North Carolina was slotted into the lead off slot for Vancouver, and helped lead them to their third straight Northwest League title.  Not blessed with burning speed, Frank is very aggressive on the basepaths.  We watched him make the third out at third base one inning in July, then scored on a passed ball that barely eluded the catcher's grasp later in the game.  Apparently, that wasn't out of character for Frank.  He hit .282/.412/.365 for the Canadians.  At 23, he's likely close to reaching his ceiling.   It's hard to ignore that on-base percentage, though.

7.  Mike Crouse
The physically gifted Crouse, like his fellow Canadian Pompey, is still a bit behind other prospects his age.
Things came together for him somewhat this summer in Dunedin, where he hit .250/.343./.403.  Scouts like his tools, but BC native Crouse, who made his pro debut in 2008, has yet to advance beyond A ball.  At 23, there's still time, but not an abundance of it.

8.  Jacob Anderson
 Anderson was a  supplemental first round pick in 2011 (from a California draft class that wasn't considered deep in outfielders), and had an impressive pro debut with the GCL Jays after signing close to the deadline in August of that year.  Expectations were high, but he had a dismal 2012 in the Appy League, where he had a difficult time making contact.
   Anderson missed all of 2013 after ungoing surgery to correct a rib problem.  Did this injury effect his swing in 2012 ?  There isn't much information to go on, but that seems a possibility.
  Anderson is described as having the kind of power-speed combination that scouts covet.  Having just turned 21, time may be Anderson's biggest asset.  In an organization with more outfield depth, it's hard to see Anderson making most top prospects list.  Just the same, scouts had to see something in his tools to warrant drafting him so high in 2011.  He's still a bit of a reach, and has lost a year of development.

9.  Anthony Alford
  Alford is one of our favourite prospects, but the chances of him ever donning a Jays uniform again at any level are slim.
   Alford was drafted out of Mississippi HS in the 3rd round of 2012.  Most teams shied away from him because of his committment to Southern Miss to play football, but the Jays gave him $750 000 to give being a two-sport athlete a try.  Alford signed, and had a brief stint in the GCL that year, before heading off to school to play quarterback.  He led Southern Miss in total offence in his freshman year, but the team was awful, and Alford ran into problems off the playing field, and left the campus in November.
   Alford transferred to Mississippi, but had to sit out this season as a transfer.  He had another brief tour with the GCL Jays, then headed off to school once again. In two minor league seasons, Alford has accumulated all of 40 at bats.  And with his transfer, he will be 23 when his college football days are over in 4 years.
   Alford probably has the best toolkit in the Jays organization, but with his intent to try to forge a football career, it's unlikely that he will ever make it to the big leagues, unless he gives up on that dream.  JJ Cooper of Baseball America observed:
   With such limited exposure to pro ball, it’s hard to make any sort of assessment of Alford’s chances to be a big leaguer. He’s one of the best athletes in the minors and is a plus defender in center field. But as long as his pro baseball experience consists of a few weeks in the summer around classes and football, it’s going to be very hard for him to develop into a polished hitter.


10. Thomas Collins
   It's hard not to include this guy on our list.
More commonly known as Boomer, Collins put up great numbers in the CGL this summer, and was named a GCL All-Star.
 The reason he doesn't rank higher is because he's 24.  Collins started his collegiate career at Nebraska, but transferred after his freshman year to Dallas Baptist, and had to sit out a year as well, in accordance with NCAA rules.
  By all accounts, Collins is the ultimate team player.  Even while redshirted, however, Collins quickly developed a reputation as a leader and hard worker - so much so that even faced with a limited travel budget,  Dallas Baptist took him to the NCAA Super Regional just to have him in the dugout.
  Collins played summer ball in Alaska, and there are glowing reports about his time there as well.  He is active as a volunteer both at his school and his Texas hometown of Waxahachie.
  Despite his success in the Florida complex, the Jays obviously didn't think his future is bright enough to have taken away playing time from the trio of outfield prospects playing at the next level in Bluefield.  The non-drafted free agent is the ultimate org guy. Sounds like he's a character guy as well.

Friday, November 15, 2013

Jays Flying in Arizona

  In the aftermath of a disappointing sub-500 season for the parent club, there is reason for optimism in the performance of much of the large contingent (thanks to that losing record) of prospects the club sent to the US Southwest to play in the Arizpna Fall League.
   Righthander Drew Hutchison, continuing his comeback from Tommy Joun surgery, has looked more and more like the promising starter the Jays skipped from Double A in 2012.  In his final AFL start, Hutchison surrendered one earned run in 4 innings, giving up 4 hits, while walking 3 and striking out 4.  This performance comes on the heels of his worst outing last week.  Over the course of 6 starts, Hutchison has given up 18  hits, striking out 20, while walking only 6.  The cailbre of competition may have been lesser than what he would have faced in the majors, but one has to start thinking of Hutchison in terms of at least the back end of the major league rotation at some point next year.
   Andy Burns has built upon his strong season at two levels with strong play at the plate and several positions in the field.  After a slow start, Burns has caught fire over the last 10 games, and as play in the AFL winds down, sports a .343/.422/.443 line.  Burns has spent time at 3rd, 1st, and the corner outfield positions this fall.  With Brett Lawrie holding down 3rd at the major league level for some time to come, the
Jays are obviously looking for a spot for Burns.  His timetable for reaching the bigs has accelerated. Burns and Hutchison were named AFL player and pitcher of the week for the week of October 28 - November 3rd.
   Outfielder Kenny Wilson, who was sent to Arizona to make up for lost time after injuries limited him to 60 minor league games this season, got off to a hot start, then cooled somewhat.  As the season is drawing to a close, Wilson has heated up again, homering in consecutive games, as part of a 6-15 stretch.. Wilson is an interesting prospect, who seemed on the verge of leaping up the prospect rankings with a breakout season at two levels of A ball in 2012.  Injuries sidetracked him this year, and his up and down AFL stint still makes it hard to get a read on his prospects for the long term.  He has hit .267/.340/.411, and has been 11/16 in stolen bases.
  Catcher Derrick Chung, who was a last-minute injury replacement for A.J. Jimenez, has surprised with the bat as well.  Chung has split the catching duties in the AFL with Rockies prospect Dustin Garneau, and has hit for a surprising .390/.447/.439 line in 13 games.  Granted, that is a small sample size (45 plate appearances), but it builds in his .287/.341/.336 at Dunedin (Chung has not hit a professional home run). Chung played several positions in his 2012 debut season, but settled in behind the plate this year.  From all accounts, he has picked up the position quickly.  At 25, however, the clock is ticking loudly for him.  It's nice to see him contribute just the same.
   Righthander Marcus Stroman, after pitching 111 innings in his first full pro season, has had his load tightly monitored in Arizona.  After starting with New Hampshire this year, Stroman has shifted back to the bullpen, and has pitched mostly in one or two inning stints.  Stroman has continued to pitch in the 93-95 range with his fastball, and has further developed his change to go with his slider.  If we had to wager, we would be willing to say that Stroman will be the next prospect called up to the big club.  Whether or not that's out of spring training or not is the question, depending on the club's success (or failure) in landing starting pitching this offseason.
 

  And finally, righthander and prized prospect Aaron Sanchez overcame a bit of a slow start to nearly lead Salt River to the AFL playoffs.  Sanchez gave up one earned run in his last 4 starts, and finished with a 2-1, 1.16 record, striking out 21 in 23 innings. Control was still a bit of an issue, but more and more we're beginning to think it's a result of the movement on his stuff, particularly the late life on his fastball.  Sanchez is learning to harness that, and from the outings we saw, he has developed a smooth, repeatable delivery, despite what some observers were saying earlier in the fall.
   Here's an interesting comparison, now that the minor league season has been put to bed:

Sanchez
Team
League
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SHO
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
WHIP
DUN
FSL
4
5
3.34
22
20
0
0
0
86.1
63
40
32
4
40
75
1.19
SRR
AFL
2
1
1.16
6
6
0
0
0
23.1
11
4
3
0
11
21
0.96
                            6      6        2.86    28    26       0         0         0    109.2   74    44    35       4      51     96     1.15

Syndergaard
Team
League
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SHO
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
SO
WHIP
STL
FSL
3
3
3.11
12
12
0
0
0
63.2
61
25
22
3
16
64
1.21
BIN
EAS
6
1
3.00
11
11
0
0
0
54.0
46
23
18
8
12
69
1.08
Minors

9
4
3.06
23
23
0
0
0
117.2
107
48
40
11
28
133
1.15


  Obviously, Syndergaard had the better season.  He started the Future Stars game, and topped several "best of" post-season minor league polls.  His BB/K ration was better than Sanchez', but other than that, there's not a lot a difference between their totals for the season. 
   We're feeling more and more comfortable with the notion that Sanchez is a keeper.