Sanchez/Norris Updates: Not Really

   The Jays have been very tight-lipped about the return to action timelines of most of their minor league prospects this season, and are continuing that trend with righthander Aaron Sanchez, and lefthander Daniel Norris.
   Sanchez, Clutchlings' #1 top-ranked Blue Jays prospect, has been on the milb disabled list since injuring his shoulder on May 18th.  GM Alex Anthopolous told Sportsnet's Shi Davidi on May 29th that Sanchez felt great, and was ready to get going "soon."  Assistant GM Tony LaCava told mlb.com yesterday that Sanchez is now pain-free, and making progress with his throwing program, but wouldn't commit to a timeline for his return.  Sanchez was 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA with Dunedin before being shut down.  Obviously, the Jays are taking things very conservatively with their prize prospect. 
   Norris, #4 on our list, was coming into his own with Low A Lansing in May.  Despite an 0-4, 5.80 ERA, Norris posted a 1.29 ERA over 5 starts before leaving a June 9th start with forearm stiffness in the 2nd inning.  The move was precautionary, but the club sent Norris for an MRI to be certain.  Norris announced his fitness on Twitter:

  The organization has similarly taken a cautious approach with Norris.  LaCava says that he will be starting a throwing program - you guessed it, "soon."

  Righthander Roberto Osuna returned to action with Lansing after being diagnosed with a tear in his UCL, and threw 5 shutout innings on June 9th, and 6 innings, giving up only an unearned run on the 14th.  Osuna was shut down in May, and sent to Florida for rest and rehab.

   On a related note, the Blue Jays have perhaps gotten a jump on the competition by hiring renowned pitching mechanics trainer Jamie Evans.  Evans has helped many pitchers at all levels with his Velocity Program.  Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil, and Dustin McGowan have all experienced success with the regimen. Evans' program involves the use of weighted balls to strengthen the shoulder muscles, reducing stress on the elbow.  The idea was borrowed from a program used by tennis players.  Given what we have learned from our earlier study of pitchers' injuries, this hire makes a great deal of sense.

Promotions ?

   With most minor leagues taking an all-star break this week after having reached the half-way point of the milb season, many organizations shuffle their affiliates' rosters a bit, promoting players who need to be challenged more at the next level.  We have absolutely no insight into what the Blue Jays will do, other than the fact that they prefer to take things slowly, especially with high school grads in their first year or two of pro ball.
   Promoting a player can be a risky business.  Sometimes they don't respond well when they have their first struggles at a higher level, which can stall or set back their development.  Leaving a player where they are at, on the other hand, may allow a player to postpone making necessary adjustments that will allow them to succeed on the higher rungs of the developmental ladder.  It likely depends on the prospect; some thrive on the adversity, others shrink in the face of it.
   These are the Jays' minor league players we think deserve a promotion:

1.  Kevin Pillar: New Hampshire to Buffalo
   All Pillar has done so far this season with New Hampshire is lead the league in hits, and is in the top ten in runs, doubles, and stolen bases. He's sixth in hitting, and has a line of .316/.364/.450.
   Most scouts agree that he would benefit by playing some more center field, to help boost his versatility. Playing time at Buffalo, of course, would be the issue, and with an outfield of Eugenio Velez, Anthony Gose, Moises Sierra, and Ryan Langerhans already there, there might not be enough AB's for Pillar.  Gose and Sierra merit playing time to be certain, but Langerhans, at 33, really doesn't, and even though Velez has played well, at 31, it's tough to make a case for him playing ahead of Pillar.
At 24, time is becoming a bit scarce for Pillar, who has been labelled as too old for many of the lower levels he's played in.  So, since overachieving fourth outfielder is the tag he's been given, why not give him some time at Buffalo to see exactly what the club has ?

2. Sean Nolin/Marcus Stroman: New Hampshire to Buffalo
   Neither pitcher started their seasons until last month, but both have been very effective for New Hampshire.  Nolin, of course, was summoned for a disastrous start by the big leagues, but other than a rough outing after his return, hasn't been greatly challenged by EL hitters.  He sports a 3-2, 3.09 record, with a .256 OBA.
   Stroman, whose season debut was delayed until mid-May as he sat out the rest of his 50 game suspension for PEDs, has also shone on the Fisher Cats' mound, with a 3-1, 4.15 ERA.  If you take out a strafing by Portland, his ERA drops to 1.80.  Stroman has struck out 29 EL hitters in 26 innings.  The 2012 1st round draft choice was called the most major-league ready pick of all the first rounders, but the suspension set that timetable back.  His most likely route to the majors was through the bullpen, but the Jays have opted to stretch him out as a starter
   With Buffalo having used 14 different starters, and with Ricky Romero and Chad Jenkins needing to take their regular turn, along with Dave Bush, who remains an insurance policy against further injuries to the major league staff, Claudio Vargas and Justin Germano have gotten most of the leftover starts for the Bisons.  It's hard to make a case for both of them taking starts that could go to Nolin or Stroman.

3.  Andy Burns: Dunedin to New Hampshire
   Burns has been off of our radar.  Until this year.
An 11th round draft pick two years ago, Burns had to sit out the 2011 college season, because he transferred from Kentucky to Arizona.  Missing a full season as a 20 year old set his development back, and he put up nondescript numbers at short season ball in 2011, and at Low A Lansing last year.
  This year, however, has been a different story.  Burns has hit .315/.376./.513 for High A Dunedin, at a level not known for its high offensive output.  Burns currently is 6th in the league in hitting, and has helped the club to the top of the Northern Division standings.  He gets the thumbs up from Keith Law:

   At New Hampshire, Kevin Ahrens and Ryan Schimpf are receiving the bulk of the playing time at 3rd. Ahrens, a first round pick in 2007, has underachieved for most of his minor league career, and will likely be a minor league free agent at the end of the season.  Schimpf can be shifted to second.  Neither should be blocking Burns' way.

4.  Scott Copeland:  Dunedin to New Hampshire
   With the possible promotions of Nolin and/or Stroman, a vacancy will be created in the Fisher Cats' rotation.  Copeland, who at 25 can't really be thought of as much of a prospect any more, has put together a decent season at Dunedin.  His record in 6-2, with a 2.41 ERA.  If Aaron Sanchez is as close to returning as the club has been hinting he is, that would help make up for some of the innings Copeland has logged for the North Division-leading D-Jays.
   Copeland was drafted by the Baltimore in the 2st round of the 2010 draft, was released by the Orioles in 2012, and signed with the Jays in July of that year. He has pitched well in almost a full season in the FSL, and even though he is more of an org guy at this point, he takes a regular turn in the rotation, and eats up a lot of innings.  A promotion to a higher level would be a reward for the turnaround he's experienced since joining the Jays' organization.

5.  Gustavo Pierre:  Lansing to Dunedin
   This is another domino move.  If Burns is promoted to AA, Pierre would nicely do as a replacement at Dunedin.
  Pierre was a much-heralded international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2008 as a 16 year old.  In 4 minor league seasons, none of which were above Low A, Pierre didn't distinguish himself much with the bat, never hitting above .259, and showed diminishing range at short. That prompted a move to 3rd this spring with Lansing, and he seems to be finding himself at the plate.  Pierre is hitting .292/.300/..438.  A little alarming are his 2 walks in 223 AB, but it's worth a shot to move him up a level to challenge him a bit more.  Again, the clock is ticking, and the Jays perhaps need to see what they have before.

6.  Justin Jackson: Lansing to Dunedin
   A 2nd round choice in 2007, Jackson too had largely underachieved until a position switch this year.
Because he had always shown a strong, accurate arm at shortstop, the Jays persuaded Jackson to switch to the mound at spring training this year.  He spent a month at extended spring training in April, was assigned to Lansing in May, and has shown electric stuff since then.
   In 12 appearances out of the bullpen with the Lugnuts, Jackson has an 0-1 record, with a 1.47 ERA.  He's struck out 16 batters in 18 innings, and MWL hitters are batting only .197 against him.  While he's still learning how to pitch, Jackson shows a plus fastball, good command, and as a former infielder, fields his position well.
   Since the Jays risk losing Jackson in the Rule 5 draft this fall, it might be time to move him up a level, and see if he is an arm worth placing on the 40 man roster.

7.  Ben White:  Lansing to Dunedin
   A non-drafted free agent signee in 2011, righthander White struggled through two seasons of short season ball before this season.  Promoted to Lansing, he's showed signs of putting things together.
   This year, he's 4-3, with a 2.79 ERA for a team which has struggled to score for him.  Over his last 4 starts, White has been lights out, going 2-0, with a 0.75 ERA.
   At 24, White may be too old for this level, and should be promoted to Dunedin to see how he fares against High A hitters.  If Copeland is promoted, a spot in the rotation would be opened up for White.


 

Jays Welcome Several Draftees to the Nest

   
   The Blue Jays announced today that they have signed a total of 16 players from last week's MLB entry draft, including 5 players taken in the first ten rounds.
   The first to sign was Arizona HS righthander Patrick Murphy.  Murphy was one of the state's top-ranked prep pitchers last year, until he underwent Tommy John surgery last April.  Murphy had little leverage heading into the draft because of the surgery, and signed for about $150 000 below slot value.
Murphy fits the Jays' philosophy of drafting high-risk, high-reward players.
   Also signing was Alabama HS leftie Evan Smith, taken in the 4th round.  At 6'5", Smith also fits the organization's preference for tall, lean, projectable pitchers.  Smith signed for about $96 000 below slot value.
   The Jays also signed, but didn't release signing amounts for 5th rounder Daniel Lietz, a rhp out of junior college in Illinois,  7th round pick California HS rhp Conner Greene, or Garrett Custons, a catcher taken in the 10th round out of the Air Force.  If the club holds to last year's form, they will sign some or all of these picks to minimal bonuses, then use the savings to go after their top two picks, high school pitchers Phil Bickford and Clinton Hollon.  The club has about $6.3 million to spend, and with today's signings are almost $250K under slot value budget.
   The assigned value for Bickford, taken with the 10th pick, was $2.9 million, but it is rumoured that Bickford, who has committed to Cal State Fullerton, has an asking price over $1 million higher.
   The club will likely take things very slowly with Murphy, who began throwing again in March, as well as Smith, who will likely make a few appearances in the Gulf Coast League before the summer is over.  It's possible that Lietz and Custons may play in both the GCL and the Appy League this year, because they're a little bit ahead of the high schoolers on the learning curve.

Justin Jackson Conversion Update

 

   One of the more interesting stories of the Blue Jays minor leaguers that has been lost in the shuffle of some higher-profile prospects has been the conversion of shortstop Justin Jackson to pitching.
   A first round draft pick in 2007, Jackson has struggled with the bat, never hitting over .249 in a season, and playing in only 94 games above A ball, playing a reserve role with AA New Hampshire last year.
   Jackson has always shown a live arm, so the move was somewhat natural.  The Jays assigned him to Low A Lansing at the beginning of May, and the results are encouraging.  Pitching out of the bullpen, Jackson has appeared in 11 games, and in 17 innings, has and ERA of 1.56, striking out 14 while only walking 8. MWL batters are hitting .191 against him.  Still learning to pitch, Jackson throws a low 90s fastball, slider, and changeup. As a former infielder, he fields his position very well.
   If Jackson isn't added to the 40 man roster at the end of the season, he will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in November, and will become a six year minor league free agent. The Jays have some thinking to do about him, as a result.  Do they promote him to High A to see what he can do against tougher competition ?  Will he be worth a spot on the 40 man, or do they risk losing him as a Rule 5 or milb free agent ?  Initially used in bases empty situations, he has been used more in high leverage outings .  Is he  being challenged enough at this level ? Is he ready to move up?
    This one bears continued watching.
 

D-Jays on the Move ?

   

  The speculation along Florida's Gulf Coast is growing that the Blue Jays are considering moving their spring training home of Dunedin for a shared facility with the Astros at Palm Beach Gardens, on Florida's east coast.
   Dunedin has been the spring home of the Jays since their inception.  Their 15 year lease with Florida Auto Exchange Stadium (home of the Class A Dunedin Jays of the Florida State League) expires in 2017.
   Jays President Paul Beeston told Canadian media this spring that while his heart was still in Dunedin, and in "a perfect world"  he would prefer to keep the club's spring headquarters there, the stadium is about six km away from their spring home at the Bobby Mattick minor league training centre. Players, scouts, media, and front office personnel need to be shuttled back and forth between the two sites. Florida Auto Exchange Stadium itself was built in 1930, and was renovated in 2002, but is still short of state of the art, with cramped washroom and concession space, and limited parking. The D-Jays have had the FSL's worst home attendance for 6 straight years.  To date, their average attendance after 30 home dates is a paltry 735 fans per game - about half the league's average.
 

Florida Auto Exchange Stadium

   The City of Dunedin has been trying to have a sit-down with Beeston since he made those comments, but the Jays haven't been returning calls. Mayor Dave Eggers' many calls and emails to Beeston have gone unreturned over the last month.
   In April, South Florida media was reporting that newly proposed legislation at the state level was geared at granting millions of dollars to cities that renovate or build new two-team stadiums, with the joint Jays-Astros complex at the heart of the proposal.  The Astros indicated that they have received indications that the Jays are interested. The Marlins and Cards train in Palm Beach County, while the Mets are in nearby St Lucie County.
  Mayor Eggers continued after spring training ended to try reach Beeston, who at one point sent a brief email to say he would visit to discuss get negotiations underway in two weeks, but didn't.  Former Jays trainer Ken Carson, who runs the Mattick Complex, speculated that Beeston is preoccupied with trying to get the AL East cellar-dwelling Blue Jays back on track, and while he acknowledged that teams are courted and do consider offers when their leases are about to expire (the Jays looked at other sites, including Las Vegas, before the most recent renewal in 2002), he denied that the Astros and Jays have a deal in place.
    How much of this is part of the normal give and take, back and forth, we'll be in touch manner of negotiations between a municipality and a professional sports team, is hard to say.  There are still several years left on the lease.  This may also be an attempt by the Jays to wrangle a better deal out of Dunedin.  It may also be an attempt to upgrade their training and minor league facility.  Either way, the club's silence on the matter speaks volumes.

Big On Bickford ?

 

   With the 10th pick in last week's MLB Entry Draft, the Blue Jays went off the board slightly in selecting California high school righthander Phil Bickford. The fireballing hurler, who struck out 18 in his final high school game on the Saturday before the draft, caught a heavy dose of helium, and rose rapidly in the rankings.  While he was a bit off of our radar (Baseball America had him ranked at 20th), Bickford fits the Jays recent draft history model - a power high school arm, adding to the stockpile of arms the club has at the lower levels.
   Jays' director of amateur scouting Brian Parker told Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star that Bickford has one of the best fastballs in the draft. Some scouts question Bickford's secondary pitches, suggesting that his low 3/4 arm slot causes his breaking pitches to flatten.  Bickford has good command of his fastball, however - a quality that the organization covets.
  The assigned slot for the 10th pick in the draft is $2.9 million.  Rumour has it that Bickford's asking price is just over $4 million, and if the two sides can't come to an agreement, Bickford has committed to Cal State Fullerton.
   So, there's a bit of a risk in taking Bickford, and even though the Jays will get a compensation pick if they don't sign him (like they did when they failed to sign Tyler Beede two years ago), he's a bit of a curious pick.  Here are some possible reasons why they took him:

1.  The players they really liked (Trey Ball, Austin Meadows) were taken before him, and they

didn't like some of the position players (Reese McGuire, Hunter Renfroe) they were linked to.

So when in doubt, pick a pitcher.  Unlike a position player, you can quantify what a pitcher does

(ie., speed of a fastball, differential between fastball and change, depth of breaking pitches, control) better than you can a hitter.. Even better if it's a high school pitcher with command and a mid 90s fastball.

2.  They didn't like the quality of any of the supposed top ranked players in the draft, so if Bickford

fails to sign, they get a 2nd first round pick next year.

3.  They do like him, but not that much, and have no plans to go very much over slot to get him (if Bickford fails to sign and attends school, he won't be draft eligible until the end of his junior year).

rated high school players whose stock fell due to college committments out of that decision.

4.  Maybe they actually liked Bickford.  He would join Daniel Norris, Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez,

Chase DeJong, and Tyler Gonzales in the Jays' stable of young power arms. They will have to go over slot by quite a bit to get him, and are prepared to do so.

   The Jays and Bickford have until July 12th to reach a deal.