Eleven months ago, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous had completed the near-emptying of the club's farm system when he included top prospects Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard in the R.A. Dickey deal, and Justin Nicolino and Jake Marisnick in the Jose Reyes trade. Months earlier, Anthopolous had started the process with the dealing of a number of prospects to Houston in the J.A. Happ deal. The Jays' system was thin on both quality and quantity at the same time.
Despite this, the Jays had a reasonably successful farm system this year, thanks in part due to a successful June draft (despite not signing top pick Phil Bickford, who was taken with the 10th pick). And with the 9th and 10th pick next year in what is being labelled a deeper prospect pool, the club is poised to return to prominence as a drafter and developer of talent. Baseball America ranked the Jays as the 11th best system after the 2013 season - an impressive achievement, all things considered.
We bring you, then, our Top 20 Blue Jays Prospects:
1. Aaron Sanchez
The resounding thud you may have heard in late August/early September was the crush of supporters leaping off the Aaron Sanchez bandwagon.
Sanchez missed a month this year due to shoulder issues. He was a bit rusty when he came back. And had one outing in July when he was shelled.
Otherwise, Sanchez had a pretty good year. Dominant, at times.
Because fellow prospects and former teammates Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino remained healthy and were promoted to AA, there were many analysts who were quick to dump on Sanchez. Too upright in his delivery, said some. Not enough legs in the last phase, said others. He walks too many. Not a true ace, more like a #2, at best.
All of the above was said even though he was lights out in his last two starts with Dunedin, where he was one of the younger pitchers in the league. And the walks are still high, but were down a full 1.0 walk per 9 innings from 2012.
The bashing continued in the Arizona Fall League. In a recent chat, prospect guru Keith Law opined:
I compared what I saw from Sanchez in Fall League to video from when I saw him in 2012, and it confirmed my initial impression – he’s shortened his stride and is finishing too upright. The Sanchez I’d seen in the past missed bats with his fastball; the one I saw in AZ threw 28 fastballs and didn’t get a single swing and miss on it.
Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus is apparently off the Sanchez bandwagon, too:
Sanchez has dynamic stuff, but outings like these have become all too common. He stayed out of trouble on Monday because he doesn’t give up hard contact and misses enough bats, but he was unable to finish the fifth inning. He will be able to get away with poor control more so than most pitchers because his fastball sits in the mid-90s and touches 97 and because he pairs it with a plus breaking ball, but his ceiling will be limited if he doesn’t get it everything under control.
This in spite of the fact that Sanchez gave up no runs in that start. Sure, maybe the bullpen saved him, but he gave up no runs for the second straight start. And was named to the AFL All-Star game. Sanchez finished on a dominant run in Arizona, surrendering only 1 earned run in his last 4 outings.
Our point is that maybe in this day and age of instant information, some analysts, perhaps trying to stay ahead of the curve, are quick to praise or condemn prospects literally from one outing to the next. Sanchez was pitching over his head a bit in the AFL, but he responded well to the challenge. When he wasn't on the injured list this season, he showed top of the rotation stuff. Sanchez throws a mid 90s fastball, and mixes in an elite curve (which he's had trouble controlling) and change.
This season was a bit of a speed bump for Sanchez. Something all athletes deal with - the elite ones deal with them successfully. He firmly re-established himself in Arizona as a premium prospect. The trials that he endured this season will help him to better the next twist in his road to the majors.
2. Marcus Stroman
Opinion on Stroman is even more prolonged and sharply divided. The 5'9" fireballer is either a potential back of the bullpen arm, or a future mid to end of the rotation starter.
The Blue Jays have given Stroman every chance to be a starter, even though the 21st pick in the 2012 draft was predicted by some to have the shortest path to the bigs - as a reliever. A 50 game PED suspension pushed Stroman's progress back a bit, but he more than made up for lost time when he returned to action in May.
Stroman was sent to AA New Hampshire's starting rotation to build up his arm strength, and work on his change-up. Which he did, with resounding success. When the major league rotation was riddled by injury and inconsistency, there were many calls for Stroman's promotion.
Here's what one scout had to say about the righthander in August:
One of the most inspiring minor league pitching performances I’ve seen this year. He’s very athletic on the mound and attacks hitters, shows three plus pitches and plus command. The concerns over the durability are legitimate…go back the last 25 years and you won’t find a right-hander his size that’s been a starter in the league for longer than three years. That said, he seems to feed off those questions and I love guys with a chip on their shoulder. He could compete in the big leagues right now.
Stroman is used to naysayers who point to his lack of size. He uses that as fuel to propel him on. Stroman is strong and athletic, and gets a lot of his lower body into his delivery, which should lessen the wear and tear on his arm/shoulder. Stroman has a deceptive delivery, turning his back to the hitter, making it hard to pick the ball up. With 3 plus pitches, Stroman should be a lock for the starting rotation, either out of spring training, or at some point in 2014.
3. Daniel Norris
This may be a bit of a reach for us. Norris is a top 10 prospect for sure. The way he battled through tough outings last year and in April of this shows the character this young man has. Even though he was born and raised in Tennessee, Norris loves to surf, and his Twitter feed reveals a laid back, So-Cal attitude, with a strong faith that may help him deal with the ups and downs of being a starting pitcher. The kid seems to know how to put things in perspective.
After the first week of May, Norris was lights out for Lansing, and was the mainstay of the rotation. The ever-cautious Jays shut him down for a month with elbow tenderness, but he showed no ill effects when he came back, although he was on a 60 pitch limit until late August. This may have kept us from seeing what Norris is truly capable of, although a pair of starts for playoff-bound Dunedin at the end of the summer gave us a glimpse. His month on the DL, coupled with his slow start, likely cost Norris a spot on BA's top 20 Midwest League prospects list.
There are some who say Norris profiles as a middle of the rotation starter, or even a reliever. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he can dial it up when need be. He has a plus curve, a change that has come a long way, and he added a slider this year. He became consistent with his delivery, release point and control. We say that middle of the rotation is Norris' floor, and we're looking forward to more from him, likely at High A this year.
4. Sean Nolin
Nolin profiles as a middle of the rotation innings eater (in a few years at least, for the latter). And there's nothing wrong with that (see Buehrle, Mark).
Nolin blew through two levels in the minors in 2012, as well as 2013. He was called up for a major league start in May, and stage fright may have been the culprit, as he was shelled. Nolin throws a FB that averages around 91 mph. He also throws a change, curve and cutter that all profile as "solid average" with the evaluators at Baseball Prospectus. He has a fluid, repeatable delivery, and his size is ideal for a future rotation regular.
His numbers for 2013 were comparable to Stroman's. One or both will likely join the Jays pitching staff at some point in the season.
5. Kevin Pillar
Pillar rose so quickly through the minors that we really have never given him the credit he deserves.
He advanced through two levels this year, and got a shot in late August and September with the big club when injuries sidelined all of the starting outfield at one point.
Pillar hit .307/.353/.461 between New Hampshire and Buffalo. He was overwhelmed at the major league level, going hitless in his first 13 bats, but finished strong to get over the Mendoza line, ending up with a line of .206/.250/.333 in 102 MLB at bats.
Pillar has always had the "overachieving fourth outfielder" tag applied to him. As a 32 round draft choice, he's more than used to battling long odds. Pillar has speed (not necessarily elite, base-stealing speed), and can play all three outfield positions. That the Jays let Rajai Davis walk after the season likely opens a spot for Pillar, who offers more versatility, and potentially a more impactful bat. We're starting to think that the Reed Johnson comps are more of a floor than a ceiling. This kid has hit at every level.
As we said in another post, it won't be a bad thing if Pillar gets 300 at bats for this club. He has risen to every challenge the organization has put in front of him. He doesn't have one overwhelming tool, but his bat, defensive skills and versatility, coupled with his smarts on the basepaths, will make a strong contribution to the team.
6. Roberto Osuna
Osuna's truncated season got off to a dominant start. Pitching as a 17 year old in the Midwest League, where he was the 3rd youngest player, Osuna allowed only 3 earned runs total in 3 of his first 4 starts, striking out 22 batters in 15 innings. This was on the heels of a spectacular pro debut the season before with Bluefield and Vancouver, the latter of which is still talked about by lower mainlanders.
And then Osuna was removed from an April 30th start with elbow soreness. He was diagnosed with a tear of the UCL, and was sent for a month of rest followed by rehab in Florida. Upon his return in June, it appeared that the strategy worked, as he was back to his dominant self in his first two starts, hitting 97 with his fastball. He was rocked over his next three starts, however, and was shut down for the season, and underwent Tommy John surgery to replace the damaged ligament.
The surgery took place in late July, and given the rehab timetable from TJ, Osuna won't begin even soft-tossing for at least another month. If the average recovery time is one year, he should be pitching again by sometime late in the summer.
Since he's ony 18, that's maybe not a huge deal. Osuna wouldn't even be draft eligible until next June if he was American. The consensus is that even though he may have something of a high maintenance body, he has electric stuff, and shows an advanced feel for pitching despite his age. If there is to be a benefit to TJ surgery, it's that most pitchers who have battled back from it have paid more attention to their conditioning, which would be a good thing for Osuna.
7. D.J. Davis
Still considered to be very raw, Davis was one of the youngest players in his draft class. The club has taken things slowly with the 2012 1st round choice.
All of the other tools in Davis' kit appear to be there in abundance, except for the bat, which is still a work in progress. Baseball America thinks highly of Davis, and ranked him as the 2nd best prospect in the rookie level Appalachian League this year (although BA admits that this year's class pales in comparison to previous years). Davis has tremendous range in centrefield, and is considered one of the fastest prospects in all of milb, although that hasn't necessarily translated into high stolen base totals yet.
The Blue Jays will likely challenge Davis with an assignment to full season ball this year, which should accelerate his development. There are still likely some ups and downs in store for him, however.
8. Andy Burns
Burns has always been a sleeper prospect. This year he woke up.
Burns redshirted his senior year of college after transferring from Kentucky to Arizona. The year of missed development might have explained the mediocre results at the plate in his first two years of pro ball. Burns
hit .327/.383/.524 in a half a season at Dunedin, before receiving a promotion to AA New Hampshire. Predicatably, Burns struggled at first after the promotion, but hit .300 in August, as he adjusted to the higher quality pitching. To continue his development, Burns was sent to the Arizona Fall League, where he acquitted himself quite well with a .312/.402/.403 line. The power wasn't there, but that's one of the last tools in the box to develop with most prospects.
Burns was primarily a shortstop in college, but played mostly 3rd this year. He spent some time at 1st, as well as the corner outfield positions in Arizona as well. The Jays likely see him as a super utility-type player, who can contribute with the bat as well. Burns could fill an important minor role with the club by 2015.
9 Franklin Barreto
Barreto has drawn accolades (mostly for his bat) since he was a youth ball player. Playing this year at the tender age of 17, Barreto was ranked the 5th best prospect in the GCL by BA. He joined Bluefield late in the season to help with their playoff run.
All the signs point to Barreto being a potential top of the order, impact bat. The problem is, of course, where he ultimately will play. Barreto has been a shortstop to this point, but his footwork and arm will likely limit his future there. The plan for at least the next year will be to have Barreto remain at short, but all indications are that a move either to 2nd or the outfield is just a matter of time. He has a plus arm, which coupled with his speed and baseball sense, could see him patrolling centrefield at the Rogers Centre just as Rogers decides to install grass on the playing surface.
Barreto is still a number of years away. The injury of Dickie Thon at Vancouver caused a series of promotions and shuffles that created a spot for Barreto at Bluefield, but we think that the fact that the Jays sent him there at a young age (and having only been in America for a few months) says a lot about his makeup, and that the club thought that he was up for the challenge. He did tail off at Bluefield after a flashy start, but he was one of the youngest players in the league, playing at a premium position for a contending team.
10. Alberto Tirado
To tell the truth, we had a hard time making up our minds about this slot, thanks largely to the fact that most of the promising talent in the system is at the lower end of the ladder, making decisions based on relatively small sample sizes.
We went back and forth on a few prospects, who will be mentioned in a subsequent post, but finally settled on Tirado. Both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks are extremely high on the young Dominican, who pitched as an 18 year old in the Appy League this summer. Tirado, with his innings and pitches closely monitored like all young Jays hurlers, threw 48 innings for Bluefield, striking out 44.
Tirado is not the big bodied pitcher that you can project a heavy workload on at this point, but there is still time for him to grow a bit. Several evaluations of him make mention of his size. Tirado consistently commands his low to mid 90s FB down in the zone, creating a lot of groundballs. Like most young pitchers, his secondary offerings, headed by his change, are coming along.
Tirado, who has flown a bit under the prospect radar to this point, was part of a huge contingent of Bluefield Jays in Baseball America's Top 10 Appy League prospects list, coming in at #8. As the Jays like to take their time with their young arms, fans in Vancouver have a lot to look forward to this summer, starting with the likes of Tirado.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Monday, December 2, 2013
Trade Talk Involving Prospects ?
When the Blue Jays acquired R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, and Mark Buehrle without giving up anyone from the major league roster, we were as giddy as the 2 1/2 million fans who went through the turnstiles at the Rogers Centre this season, in anticipation of playoff glory.
Such was not the case, however, and not only did the Blue Jays not get anywhere close to the post-season, but several of the prospects they gave up in the above deals gave life and hope to their new organizations. The Mets were buoyed by the acquisition of Noah Syndergaard, who cracked both the Florida State and Eastern League top 10 prospect lists, and started for the American side at the Future Stars game, played at Citi Field during the All-Star break. Catcher Travis d'Arnaud, the Jays top prospect prior to the trade, made his MLB debut late in the season, and while he didn't set the world on fire, he and Syndergaard helped soften the loss of Matt Harvey for Mets fans.
And the agony for Jays fans doesn't end there. Outfielder Jake Marisnick made his debut for the Marlins, and Justin Nicolino made the top 10 Florida State League top prospects list as well, and was promoted to AA.
With rumours abounding that the Jays were considering moving more prospects for Cubs starter Jeff Smardzija, it begs the question of whether or not trading prospects is a good idea. The answer, of course, depends on the contending status of the team willing to trade them. The Jays thought that they were on the cusp on contending last fall, and were just a few pieces away from a title. In that case, improving your roster for players not on your 40 man makes sense. Prospects, after all, are just that, and the players the Jays dealt away (with the exception of d'Arnaud) didn't fit with the slim window for winning the club was faced with.
And prospects don't always pan out. Here's a list of Baseball America's minor league players of the year since 2000:
Such was not the case, however, and not only did the Blue Jays not get anywhere close to the post-season, but several of the prospects they gave up in the above deals gave life and hope to their new organizations. The Mets were buoyed by the acquisition of Noah Syndergaard, who cracked both the Florida State and Eastern League top 10 prospect lists, and started for the American side at the Future Stars game, played at Citi Field during the All-Star break. Catcher Travis d'Arnaud, the Jays top prospect prior to the trade, made his MLB debut late in the season, and while he didn't set the world on fire, he and Syndergaard helped soften the loss of Matt Harvey for Mets fans.
And the agony for Jays fans doesn't end there. Outfielder Jake Marisnick made his debut for the Marlins, and Justin Nicolino made the top 10 Florida State League top prospects list as well, and was promoted to AA.
With rumours abounding that the Jays were considering moving more prospects for Cubs starter Jeff Smardzija, it begs the question of whether or not trading prospects is a good idea. The answer, of course, depends on the contending status of the team willing to trade them. The Jays thought that they were on the cusp on contending last fall, and were just a few pieces away from a title. In that case, improving your roster for players not on your 40 man makes sense. Prospects, after all, are just that, and the players the Jays dealt away (with the exception of d'Arnaud) didn't fit with the slim window for winning the club was faced with.
And prospects don't always pan out. Here's a list of Baseball America's minor league players of the year since 2000:
| 2000 | Jon Rauch, rhp, Winston-Salem/Birmingham (White Sox) |
| 2001 | Josh Beckett, rhp, Brevard County/Portland (Marlins) |
| 2002 | Rocco Baldelli, of, Bakersfield/Orlando/Durham (Devil Rays) |
| 2003 | Joe Mauer, c, Fort Myers/New Britain (Twins) |
| 2004 | Jeff Francis, lhp, Tulsa/Colorado Springs (Rockies) |
| 2005 | Delmon Young, of, Montgomery/Durham (Devil Rays) |
| 2006 | Alex Gordon, 3b, Wichita (Royals) |
| 2007 | Jay Bruce, of, Sarasota/Chattanooga/Louisville (Reds) |
| 2008 | Matt Wieters, c, Frederick/Bowie (Orioles) |
| 2009 | Jason Heyward, of, Myrtle Beach/Mississippi/Gwinnett (Braves) |
| 2010 | Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Durham/Charlotte (Rays) |
| 2011 | Mike Trout, of, Arkansas (Angels) |
| 2012 | Wil Myers, of, Northwest Arkansas/Omaha (Royals) |
While that's a decent group of players, you can't call any of them other than Trout franchise players.
Dealing prospects, then, does make sense. In the right situation. The risk, of course, is that the players you deal for don't bring about the expected results, and/or the prospects dealt develop faster (or better) than had been thought. To get quality, you have to give up quality. Which is why we don't think dealing any of the Jays top prospects for Smardzija is wise. We're not sure the return is worth it. David Price is the other name attracting a lot of attention in the rumour mill, but Tampa would likely demand several top prospects, and given his recent injury history, we're not sure that's good value, either. Dealing prospects also can cause problems in the parent club runs into injury troubles, or if a player on the big club struggles. Nicolino and Syndergaard may not have helped in either of these regards, but Marisnick and d'Arnaud certainly would've.
There do appear to be two types of trades involving prospects. There's the to-get-quality-you-have-to-give-up-quality type, as in the Dickey trade. High-end talents from the system are given up to get a proven, first division major leaguer. Then there's the quantity type of deal, where a team gives up a flock of minor leaguers, few of whom have high ceilings, but the team acquiring them is in development mode, and is selling off assets that don't fit into their long range plans. That would be the case the the J.A. Happ deal the Jays made with Houston last year. The Blue Jays also pretty much emptied their farm system in the last half of 2012, in the deals with the Mets, Marlins, and Astros. They weakened it from both a quality and quantity perspective. Fortunately, their appears to be a wealth of arms close to making their full season debuts next season, so the system is on the upswing. To support those players, however, you need to have a solid core of both position player and prospects and quality org guys. While development takes priority over winning in the minors, you don't want your prized prospects to be on a team that loses twice as many games as they win.
So, is the time right for the Jays to deal prospects, either from a quality or a quantity viewpoint ? In our opinion, no. While the system is on the rise again, it's too early to deal top talent like Sanchez, Stroman, or Davis (especially for someone like Smardzija). And dealing talent from outside of the top 10 really would weaken the organization. Most of those players would be toiling at the lower levels of the system, and after the success of Vancouver and Bluefield this year, the club on the next rung of the ladder, Lansing, is poised to have a breakout, prospect-laden season.
How does the club improve, then? By pursuing under-valued free agents, and by using some of their bullpen depth at the major league level to acquire an end of the rotation starter, and by hoping for a return to form for Dickey and Brandon Morrow, and that one or both of Sean Nolin or Marcus Stroman make significant contributions to the pitching staff.
Dealing prospects, then, does make sense. In the right situation. The risk, of course, is that the players you deal for don't bring about the expected results, and/or the prospects dealt develop faster (or better) than had been thought. To get quality, you have to give up quality. Which is why we don't think dealing any of the Jays top prospects for Smardzija is wise. We're not sure the return is worth it. David Price is the other name attracting a lot of attention in the rumour mill, but Tampa would likely demand several top prospects, and given his recent injury history, we're not sure that's good value, either. Dealing prospects also can cause problems in the parent club runs into injury troubles, or if a player on the big club struggles. Nicolino and Syndergaard may not have helped in either of these regards, but Marisnick and d'Arnaud certainly would've.
There do appear to be two types of trades involving prospects. There's the to-get-quality-you-have-to-give-up-quality type, as in the Dickey trade. High-end talents from the system are given up to get a proven, first division major leaguer. Then there's the quantity type of deal, where a team gives up a flock of minor leaguers, few of whom have high ceilings, but the team acquiring them is in development mode, and is selling off assets that don't fit into their long range plans. That would be the case the the J.A. Happ deal the Jays made with Houston last year. The Blue Jays also pretty much emptied their farm system in the last half of 2012, in the deals with the Mets, Marlins, and Astros. They weakened it from both a quality and quantity perspective. Fortunately, their appears to be a wealth of arms close to making their full season debuts next season, so the system is on the upswing. To support those players, however, you need to have a solid core of both position player and prospects and quality org guys. While development takes priority over winning in the minors, you don't want your prized prospects to be on a team that loses twice as many games as they win.
So, is the time right for the Jays to deal prospects, either from a quality or a quantity viewpoint ? In our opinion, no. While the system is on the rise again, it's too early to deal top talent like Sanchez, Stroman, or Davis (especially for someone like Smardzija). And dealing talent from outside of the top 10 really would weaken the organization. Most of those players would be toiling at the lower levels of the system, and after the success of Vancouver and Bluefield this year, the club on the next rung of the ladder, Lansing, is poised to have a breakout, prospect-laden season.
How does the club improve, then? By pursuing under-valued free agents, and by using some of their bullpen depth at the major league level to acquire an end of the rotation starter, and by hoping for a return to form for Dickey and Brandon Morrow, and that one or both of Sean Nolin or Marcus Stroman make significant contributions to the pitching staff.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Out in Leftfield - And Beyond
When we think of the top Blue Jays outfield prospects, we really don't think about Anthony Gose or Moises Sierra, which is probably a good thing, because they have 342 and 279 major league plate appearances, respectivley. Gose's potential seems to always just be beyond his grasp; his mediocre minor league numbers this year diminished what was left of his prospect status, but he performed well enough in his late season audition that the club has to be thinking about him as an eventual replacement for Colby Rasmus. Sierra, for his part, is immensely physically talented, but his baseball IQ is limited, and his performance may never match his toolkit.
The Blue Jays have focussed on pitching in the Alex Anthopolous draft era, and it shows in the following list, to be frank. The highest-ranked outfield prospect the Jays have drafted since 2009 is Jake Marisnick, who was drafted in the 3rd round in 2009, and made his MLB debut with the Marlins this summer after being dealt in the Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrele/Emilio Bonafacio trade last off-season.
That the Blue Jays have opted to focus on pitchers in the top rounds is not new, nor is it surprising. Many other organizations (see Baltimore and Tampa Bay, to name two), have a "grow the arms and buy the bats" philosophy. Scouting a college or even a high school pitcher is an easier process than evaluating a position player. If you reach 95 with your fastball, you reach 95. If your curve has a big enough bite and a large enough differential from your fastball, you'll do that anywhere. You hit .455 in high school competition in, say, Oregon, and you may not hit that in California. Pitchers have exemplars that are easier to measure and evaluate. Drafting a top prep hurler represents less risk, in most cases, than drafting a high ranking high school outfielder not named Byron Buxton.
1. Kevin Pillar
Pillar has overachieved from his pro debut, and his rapid rise culminated with a month-plus in the bigs this fall.
His struggles at the plate in the majors were well-documented. That shouldn't take away from the fact that he can hit, and will likely continue to do so, although maybe not at the level he did in the minors.
Pillar can play all three outfield positions well. He can run, although his speed isn't blazing.
He has had the "fourth outfielder" label applied, but if he gets 350 at bats, he won't hurt this team.
2. DJ Davis
Davis was called the best Mississippi prep product since Charlie Hayes, and while maybe that's more of a reflection on the state where football is king, many scouts drool over Davis' toolkit.
The Jays have started him very slowly, with 2012 1st round pick Davis having spent most of his first two pro seasons in rookie ball.
Davis anchored the outfield and lead off for a strong Bluefield team this year, and showed some surprising pop. He got off to a strong start, but sagged late in the season, to finish .240/.355/.386. Davis has struck out 146 times in 453 at bats over his two milb seasons. He is considered one of the fastest players in minor league ball after Kenny Hamilton, but that still hasn't translated into high stolen base totals.
Davis was one of the youngest players in his draft class, and didn't turn 19 until mid-season. His performance didn't deter Baseball America, which named him the 2nd best prospect in the Appalachian League. Scouts are still very high on Davis. We still see the odd Kenny Lofton reference, and we'll take it. Davis is still a few years away (2017, by our best guess), but he may prove to be well worth the wait.
3. Kenny Wilson
Injuries limited Wilson to 60 games this season. Sent to Arizona this fall to make up for some lost at bats, Wilson acquitted himself reasonably well. Speed is a huge part of Wilson's game, as his 55 steals in a breakout 2012 season at Lansing proved. Even though he hasn't advanced past AA in 6 milb seasons, the Jays thought enough of the 2008 2nd round pick to place him on the 40 man roster this month. With his speed and athleticism, he may have been scooped up in the Rule 5 draft. Wilson is only a .231 hitter through his time in the minors to date, but at 23, there's still some time for his bat to come around.
4. Dwight Smith, Jr
The 2012 sandwich pick struggled in his first pro year in 2012, but responded well to the challenge of playing full season ball at Lansing. Smith hit a solid .284/..365/.388 at Lansing, with 25 steals in 30 attempts. Smith caught fire as the season ended, hitting .322/.393/.438 in August. He is a line-drive hitter, who hits to all fields. Smith has no one tool that jumps out, but has an advanced feel for the game.
Like his father, Smith should make a contribution to a major league team as at least a fourth outfielder.
5. Dalton Pompey
The Mississauga native made huge strides in his fourth minor league season, playing as a 20 year old in full season ball at Lansing.
Pompey hit .261/.358/.394, and was 38-48 in steals, and played a solid centre field. The switch hitter is still a bit behind American prospects his age, but Pompey is making up for lost time quickly. Like Smith, he had a hot August - at one point, he scored nine consecutive times when reaching base.
6. Chaz Frank
The 22nd round pick out of North Carolina was slotted into the lead off slot for Vancouver, and helped lead them to their third straight Northwest League title. Not blessed with burning speed, Frank is very aggressive on the basepaths. We watched him make the third out at third base one inning in July, then scored on a passed ball that barely eluded the catcher's grasp later in the game. Apparently, that wasn't out of character for Frank. He hit .282/.412/.365 for the Canadians. At 23, he's likely close to reaching his ceiling. It's hard to ignore that on-base percentage, though.
7. Mike Crouse
The physically gifted Crouse, like his fellow Canadian Pompey, is still a bit behind other prospects his age.
Things came together for him somewhat this summer in Dunedin, where he hit .250/.343./.403. Scouts like his tools, but BC native Crouse, who made his pro debut in 2008, has yet to advance beyond A ball. At 23, there's still time, but not an abundance of it.
8. Jacob Anderson
Anderson was a supplemental first round pick in 2011 (from a California draft class that wasn't considered deep in outfielders), and had an impressive pro debut with the GCL Jays after signing close to the deadline in August of that year. Expectations were high, but he had a dismal 2012 in the Appy League, where he had a difficult time making contact.
Anderson missed all of 2013 after ungoing surgery to correct a rib problem. Did this injury effect his swing in 2012 ? There isn't much information to go on, but that seems a possibility.
Anderson is described as having the kind of power-speed combination that scouts covet. Having just turned 21, time may be Anderson's biggest asset. In an organization with more outfield depth, it's hard to see Anderson making most top prospects list. Just the same, scouts had to see something in his tools to warrant drafting him so high in 2011. He's still a bit of a reach, and has lost a year of development.
9. Anthony Alford
Alford is one of our favourite prospects, but the chances of him ever donning a Jays uniform again at any level are slim.
Alford was drafted out of Mississippi HS in the 3rd round of 2012. Most teams shied away from him because of his committment to Southern Miss to play football, but the Jays gave him $750 000 to give being a two-sport athlete a try. Alford signed, and had a brief stint in the GCL that year, before heading off to school to play quarterback. He led Southern Miss in total offence in his freshman year, but the team was awful, and Alford ran into problems off the playing field, and left the campus in November.
Alford transferred to Mississippi, but had to sit out this season as a transfer. He had another brief tour with the GCL Jays, then headed off to school once again. In two minor league seasons, Alford has accumulated all of 40 at bats. And with his transfer, he will be 23 when his college football days are over in 4 years.
Alford probably has the best toolkit in the Jays organization, but with his intent to try to forge a football career, it's unlikely that he will ever make it to the big leagues, unless he gives up on that dream. JJ Cooper of Baseball America observed:
With such limited exposure to pro ball, it’s hard to make any sort of assessment of Alford’s chances to be a big leaguer. He’s one of the best athletes in the minors and is a plus defender in center field. But as long as his pro baseball experience consists of a few weeks in the summer around classes and football, it’s going to be very hard for him to develop into a polished hitter.
10. Thomas Collins
It's hard not to include this guy on our list.
More commonly known as Boomer, Collins put up great numbers in the CGL this summer, and was named a GCL All-Star.
The reason he doesn't rank higher is because he's 24. Collins started his collegiate career at Nebraska, but transferred after his freshman year to Dallas Baptist, and had to sit out a year as well, in accordance with NCAA rules.
By all accounts, Collins is the ultimate team player. Even while redshirted, however, Collins quickly developed a reputation as a leader and hard worker - so much so that even faced with a limited travel budget, Dallas Baptist took him to the NCAA Super Regional just to have him in the dugout.
Collins played summer ball in Alaska, and there are glowing reports about his time there as well. He is active as a volunteer both at his school and his Texas hometown of Waxahachie.
Despite his success in the Florida complex, the Jays obviously didn't think his future is bright enough to have taken away playing time from the trio of outfield prospects playing at the next level in Bluefield. The non-drafted free agent is the ultimate org guy. Sounds like he's a character guy as well.
The Blue Jays have focussed on pitching in the Alex Anthopolous draft era, and it shows in the following list, to be frank. The highest-ranked outfield prospect the Jays have drafted since 2009 is Jake Marisnick, who was drafted in the 3rd round in 2009, and made his MLB debut with the Marlins this summer after being dealt in the Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrele/Emilio Bonafacio trade last off-season.
That the Blue Jays have opted to focus on pitchers in the top rounds is not new, nor is it surprising. Many other organizations (see Baltimore and Tampa Bay, to name two), have a "grow the arms and buy the bats" philosophy. Scouting a college or even a high school pitcher is an easier process than evaluating a position player. If you reach 95 with your fastball, you reach 95. If your curve has a big enough bite and a large enough differential from your fastball, you'll do that anywhere. You hit .455 in high school competition in, say, Oregon, and you may not hit that in California. Pitchers have exemplars that are easier to measure and evaluate. Drafting a top prep hurler represents less risk, in most cases, than drafting a high ranking high school outfielder not named Byron Buxton.
1. Kevin Pillar
Pillar has overachieved from his pro debut, and his rapid rise culminated with a month-plus in the bigs this fall.
His struggles at the plate in the majors were well-documented. That shouldn't take away from the fact that he can hit, and will likely continue to do so, although maybe not at the level he did in the minors.
Pillar can play all three outfield positions well. He can run, although his speed isn't blazing.
He has had the "fourth outfielder" label applied, but if he gets 350 at bats, he won't hurt this team.
2. DJ Davis
Davis was called the best Mississippi prep product since Charlie Hayes, and while maybe that's more of a reflection on the state where football is king, many scouts drool over Davis' toolkit.
The Jays have started him very slowly, with 2012 1st round pick Davis having spent most of his first two pro seasons in rookie ball.
Davis anchored the outfield and lead off for a strong Bluefield team this year, and showed some surprising pop. He got off to a strong start, but sagged late in the season, to finish .240/.355/.386. Davis has struck out 146 times in 453 at bats over his two milb seasons. He is considered one of the fastest players in minor league ball after Kenny Hamilton, but that still hasn't translated into high stolen base totals.
Davis was one of the youngest players in his draft class, and didn't turn 19 until mid-season. His performance didn't deter Baseball America, which named him the 2nd best prospect in the Appalachian League. Scouts are still very high on Davis. We still see the odd Kenny Lofton reference, and we'll take it. Davis is still a few years away (2017, by our best guess), but he may prove to be well worth the wait.
3. Kenny Wilson
Injuries limited Wilson to 60 games this season. Sent to Arizona this fall to make up for some lost at bats, Wilson acquitted himself reasonably well. Speed is a huge part of Wilson's game, as his 55 steals in a breakout 2012 season at Lansing proved. Even though he hasn't advanced past AA in 6 milb seasons, the Jays thought enough of the 2008 2nd round pick to place him on the 40 man roster this month. With his speed and athleticism, he may have been scooped up in the Rule 5 draft. Wilson is only a .231 hitter through his time in the minors to date, but at 23, there's still some time for his bat to come around.
4. Dwight Smith, Jr
The 2012 sandwich pick struggled in his first pro year in 2012, but responded well to the challenge of playing full season ball at Lansing. Smith hit a solid .284/..365/.388 at Lansing, with 25 steals in 30 attempts. Smith caught fire as the season ended, hitting .322/.393/.438 in August. He is a line-drive hitter, who hits to all fields. Smith has no one tool that jumps out, but has an advanced feel for the game.
Like his father, Smith should make a contribution to a major league team as at least a fourth outfielder.
5. Dalton Pompey
The Mississauga native made huge strides in his fourth minor league season, playing as a 20 year old in full season ball at Lansing.
Pompey hit .261/.358/.394, and was 38-48 in steals, and played a solid centre field. The switch hitter is still a bit behind American prospects his age, but Pompey is making up for lost time quickly. Like Smith, he had a hot August - at one point, he scored nine consecutive times when reaching base.
6. Chaz Frank
The 22nd round pick out of North Carolina was slotted into the lead off slot for Vancouver, and helped lead them to their third straight Northwest League title. Not blessed with burning speed, Frank is very aggressive on the basepaths. We watched him make the third out at third base one inning in July, then scored on a passed ball that barely eluded the catcher's grasp later in the game. Apparently, that wasn't out of character for Frank. He hit .282/.412/.365 for the Canadians. At 23, he's likely close to reaching his ceiling. It's hard to ignore that on-base percentage, though.
7. Mike Crouse
The physically gifted Crouse, like his fellow Canadian Pompey, is still a bit behind other prospects his age.
Things came together for him somewhat this summer in Dunedin, where he hit .250/.343./.403. Scouts like his tools, but BC native Crouse, who made his pro debut in 2008, has yet to advance beyond A ball. At 23, there's still time, but not an abundance of it.
8. Jacob Anderson
Anderson was a supplemental first round pick in 2011 (from a California draft class that wasn't considered deep in outfielders), and had an impressive pro debut with the GCL Jays after signing close to the deadline in August of that year. Expectations were high, but he had a dismal 2012 in the Appy League, where he had a difficult time making contact.
Anderson missed all of 2013 after ungoing surgery to correct a rib problem. Did this injury effect his swing in 2012 ? There isn't much information to go on, but that seems a possibility.
Anderson is described as having the kind of power-speed combination that scouts covet. Having just turned 21, time may be Anderson's biggest asset. In an organization with more outfield depth, it's hard to see Anderson making most top prospects list. Just the same, scouts had to see something in his tools to warrant drafting him so high in 2011. He's still a bit of a reach, and has lost a year of development.
9. Anthony Alford
Alford is one of our favourite prospects, but the chances of him ever donning a Jays uniform again at any level are slim.
Alford was drafted out of Mississippi HS in the 3rd round of 2012. Most teams shied away from him because of his committment to Southern Miss to play football, but the Jays gave him $750 000 to give being a two-sport athlete a try. Alford signed, and had a brief stint in the GCL that year, before heading off to school to play quarterback. He led Southern Miss in total offence in his freshman year, but the team was awful, and Alford ran into problems off the playing field, and left the campus in November.
Alford transferred to Mississippi, but had to sit out this season as a transfer. He had another brief tour with the GCL Jays, then headed off to school once again. In two minor league seasons, Alford has accumulated all of 40 at bats. And with his transfer, he will be 23 when his college football days are over in 4 years.
Alford probably has the best toolkit in the Jays organization, but with his intent to try to forge a football career, it's unlikely that he will ever make it to the big leagues, unless he gives up on that dream. JJ Cooper of Baseball America observed:
With such limited exposure to pro ball, it’s hard to make any sort of assessment of Alford’s chances to be a big leaguer. He’s one of the best athletes in the minors and is a plus defender in center field. But as long as his pro baseball experience consists of a few weeks in the summer around classes and football, it’s going to be very hard for him to develop into a polished hitter.
10. Thomas Collins
It's hard not to include this guy on our list.
More commonly known as Boomer, Collins put up great numbers in the CGL this summer, and was named a GCL All-Star.
The reason he doesn't rank higher is because he's 24. Collins started his collegiate career at Nebraska, but transferred after his freshman year to Dallas Baptist, and had to sit out a year as well, in accordance with NCAA rules.
By all accounts, Collins is the ultimate team player. Even while redshirted, however, Collins quickly developed a reputation as a leader and hard worker - so much so that even faced with a limited travel budget, Dallas Baptist took him to the NCAA Super Regional just to have him in the dugout.
Collins played summer ball in Alaska, and there are glowing reports about his time there as well. He is active as a volunteer both at his school and his Texas hometown of Waxahachie.
Despite his success in the Florida complex, the Jays obviously didn't think his future is bright enough to have taken away playing time from the trio of outfield prospects playing at the next level in Bluefield. The non-drafted free agent is the ultimate org guy. Sounds like he's a character guy as well.
Friday, November 15, 2013
Jays Flying in Arizona
In the aftermath of a disappointing sub-500 season for the parent club, there is reason for optimism in the performance of much of the large contingent (thanks to that losing record) of prospects the club sent to the US Southwest to play in the Arizpna Fall League.
Righthander Drew Hutchison, continuing his comeback from Tommy Joun surgery, has looked more and more like the promising starter the Jays skipped from Double A in 2012. In his final AFL start, Hutchison surrendered one earned run in 4 innings, giving up 4 hits, while walking 3 and striking out 4. This performance comes on the heels of his worst outing last week. Over the course of 6 starts, Hutchison has given up 18 hits, striking out 20, while walking only 6. The cailbre of competition may have been lesser than what he would have faced in the majors, but one has to start thinking of Hutchison in terms of at least the back end of the major league rotation at some point next year.
Andy Burns has built upon his strong season at two levels with strong play at the plate and several positions in the field. After a slow start, Burns has caught fire over the last 10 games, and as play in the AFL winds down, sports a .343/.422/.443 line. Burns has spent time at 3rd, 1st, and the corner outfield positions this fall. With Brett Lawrie holding down 3rd at the major league level for some time to come, the
Jays are obviously looking for a spot for Burns. His timetable for reaching the bigs has accelerated. Burns and Hutchison were named AFL player and pitcher of the week for the week of October 28 - November 3rd.
Outfielder Kenny Wilson, who was sent to Arizona to make up for lost time after injuries limited him to 60 minor league games this season, got off to a hot start, then cooled somewhat. As the season is drawing to a close, Wilson has heated up again, homering in consecutive games, as part of a 6-15 stretch.. Wilson is an interesting prospect, who seemed on the verge of leaping up the prospect rankings with a breakout season at two levels of A ball in 2012. Injuries sidetracked him this year, and his up and down AFL stint still makes it hard to get a read on his prospects for the long term. He has hit .267/.340/.411, and has been 11/16 in stolen bases.
Catcher Derrick Chung, who was a last-minute injury replacement for A.J. Jimenez, has surprised with the bat as well. Chung has split the catching duties in the AFL with Rockies prospect Dustin Garneau, and has hit for a surprising .390/.447/.439 line in 13 games. Granted, that is a small sample size (45 plate appearances), but it builds in his .287/.341/.336 at Dunedin (Chung has not hit a professional home run). Chung played several positions in his 2012 debut season, but settled in behind the plate this year. From all accounts, he has picked up the position quickly. At 25, however, the clock is ticking loudly for him. It's nice to see him contribute just the same.
Righthander Marcus Stroman, after pitching 111 innings in his first full pro season, has had his load tightly monitored in Arizona. After starting with New Hampshire this year, Stroman has shifted back to the bullpen, and has pitched mostly in one or two inning stints. Stroman has continued to pitch in the 93-95 range with his fastball, and has further developed his change to go with his slider. If we had to wager, we would be willing to say that Stroman will be the next prospect called up to the big club. Whether or not that's out of spring training or not is the question, depending on the club's success (or failure) in landing starting pitching this offseason.
And finally, righthander and prized prospect Aaron Sanchez overcame a bit of a slow start to nearly lead Salt River to the AFL playoffs. Sanchez gave up one earned run in his last 4 starts, and finished with a 2-1, 1.16 record, striking out 21 in 23 innings. Control was still a bit of an issue, but more and more we're beginning to think it's a result of the movement on his stuff, particularly the late life on his fastball. Sanchez is learning to harness that, and from the outings we saw, he has developed a smooth, repeatable delivery, despite what some observers were saying earlier in the fall.
Here's an interesting comparison, now that the minor league season has been put to bed:
Sanchez
Obviously, Syndergaard had the better season. He started the Future Stars game, and topped several "best of" post-season minor league polls. His BB/K ration was better than Sanchez', but other than that, there's not a lot a difference between their totals for the season.
Righthander Drew Hutchison, continuing his comeback from Tommy Joun surgery, has looked more and more like the promising starter the Jays skipped from Double A in 2012. In his final AFL start, Hutchison surrendered one earned run in 4 innings, giving up 4 hits, while walking 3 and striking out 4. This performance comes on the heels of his worst outing last week. Over the course of 6 starts, Hutchison has given up 18 hits, striking out 20, while walking only 6. The cailbre of competition may have been lesser than what he would have faced in the majors, but one has to start thinking of Hutchison in terms of at least the back end of the major league rotation at some point next year.
Andy Burns has built upon his strong season at two levels with strong play at the plate and several positions in the field. After a slow start, Burns has caught fire over the last 10 games, and as play in the AFL winds down, sports a .343/.422/.443 line. Burns has spent time at 3rd, 1st, and the corner outfield positions this fall. With Brett Lawrie holding down 3rd at the major league level for some time to come, the
Jays are obviously looking for a spot for Burns. His timetable for reaching the bigs has accelerated. Burns and Hutchison were named AFL player and pitcher of the week for the week of October 28 - November 3rd.
Outfielder Kenny Wilson, who was sent to Arizona to make up for lost time after injuries limited him to 60 minor league games this season, got off to a hot start, then cooled somewhat. As the season is drawing to a close, Wilson has heated up again, homering in consecutive games, as part of a 6-15 stretch.. Wilson is an interesting prospect, who seemed on the verge of leaping up the prospect rankings with a breakout season at two levels of A ball in 2012. Injuries sidetracked him this year, and his up and down AFL stint still makes it hard to get a read on his prospects for the long term. He has hit .267/.340/.411, and has been 11/16 in stolen bases.
Catcher Derrick Chung, who was a last-minute injury replacement for A.J. Jimenez, has surprised with the bat as well. Chung has split the catching duties in the AFL with Rockies prospect Dustin Garneau, and has hit for a surprising .390/.447/.439 line in 13 games. Granted, that is a small sample size (45 plate appearances), but it builds in his .287/.341/.336 at Dunedin (Chung has not hit a professional home run). Chung played several positions in his 2012 debut season, but settled in behind the plate this year. From all accounts, he has picked up the position quickly. At 25, however, the clock is ticking loudly for him. It's nice to see him contribute just the same.
Righthander Marcus Stroman, after pitching 111 innings in his first full pro season, has had his load tightly monitored in Arizona. After starting with New Hampshire this year, Stroman has shifted back to the bullpen, and has pitched mostly in one or two inning stints. Stroman has continued to pitch in the 93-95 range with his fastball, and has further developed his change to go with his slider. If we had to wager, we would be willing to say that Stroman will be the next prospect called up to the big club. Whether or not that's out of spring training or not is the question, depending on the club's success (or failure) in landing starting pitching this offseason.
And finally, righthander and prized prospect Aaron Sanchez overcame a bit of a slow start to nearly lead Salt River to the AFL playoffs. Sanchez gave up one earned run in his last 4 starts, and finished with a 2-1, 1.16 record, striking out 21 in 23 innings. Control was still a bit of an issue, but more and more we're beginning to think it's a result of the movement on his stuff, particularly the late life on his fastball. Sanchez is learning to harness that, and from the outings we saw, he has developed a smooth, repeatable delivery, despite what some observers were saying earlier in the fall.
Here's an interesting comparison, now that the minor league season has been put to bed:
Sanchez
|
Team
|
League
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
G
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
SV
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
WHIP
|
|
DUN
|
FSL
|
4
|
5
|
3.34
|
22
|
20
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
86.1
|
63
|
40
|
32
|
4
|
40
|
75
|
1.19
|
|
SRR
|
AFL
|
2
|
1
|
1.16
|
6
|
6
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
23.1
|
11
|
4
|
3
|
0
|
11
|
21
|
0.96
|
6 6 2.86
28 26 0 0 0
109.2 74 44 35 4 51 96 1.15
Syndergaard
|
Team
|
League
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
G
|
GS
|
CG
|
SHO
|
SV
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
WHIP
|
||||||||||
|
STL
|
FSL
|
3
|
3
|
3.11
|
12
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
63.2
|
61
|
25
|
22
|
3
|
16
|
64
|
1.21
|
||||||||||
|
BIN
|
EAS
|
6
|
1
|
3.00
|
11
|
11
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
54.0
|
46
|
23
|
18
|
8
|
12
|
69
|
1.08
|
||||||||||
|
Minors
|
|
9
|
4
|
3.06
|
23
|
23
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
117.2
|
107
|
48
|
40
|
11
|
28
|
133
|
1.15
|
||||||||||
Obviously, Syndergaard had the better season. He started the Future Stars game, and topped several "best of" post-season minor league polls. His BB/K ration was better than Sanchez', but other than that, there's not a lot a difference between their totals for the season.
We're feeling more and more comfortable with the notion that Sanchez is a keeper.
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