Thanks to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, there is some good news/bad news regarding the progress of three prized injured Jays' pitching prospects.
Smoral, the 6'8" lefthander who was a sandwich round pick (thanks, Frank Francisco) in 2012, dropped in the draft because of a foot injury, and concerns that he was college bound. In other words, a good fit with the Jays' high-risk, high-reward draft strategy. Smoral sat out the entire 2012 season while he recovered from surgery to correct the problem, which had dogged him since his junior year in high school. Jays pitching instructor Pat Hentgen came away from watching Smoral throw in a bullpen session at extended spring training highly impressed. "Sometimes when you stand behind the pitcher, the ball looks small," he told Davidi. "Smoral (has) that bb effect, where the ball just looks small."
Smoral will likely open the year in a few weeks with the Gulf Coast Jays in the complex rookie ball league. If all goes well, a mid-season promotion to Bluefield in the higher rookie league Appalachian League will likely be in the works.
Righthander Aaron Sanchez, the Jays' first round choice in 2012, and Clutchlings' top-ranked prospect, was placed on the minor league 7-day disabled list earlier this month, is doing well, according to GM Alex Anthopolous. Anthopolous told Davidi that Sanchez "feels great, he doesn't have any pain, any soreness, so he should get going here soon." Sanchez, in 9 starts with High A Dunedin, is 2-2 with a 3.16 ERA. In 42 innings, Sanchez has allowed 25 hits, and 16 walks, with 37 strikeouts. Florida State League hitters are batting .166 against him.
Placing Sanchez on the DL was likely a precaution by the Jays, who monitor their lower level prospects' pitch counts and innings closely. Some suggest that Sanchez is just going through a "dead arm" period. The Jays aren't taking any chances, just the same.
Osuna, Clutchlings' #3 prospect, was also shut down earlier this month.The 18 year-old Mexican righthander is one of the youngest players in the Midwest League this year, and isn't even of draft age until next year. Osuna was sent from Lansing back to extended spring training after being placed on the DL, with a program of rest and light throwing prescribed to try to rehabilitate his ulnar collateral ligament, which was torn as indicated by an MRI. Facing the prospect of Tommy John surgery, Osuna has started throwing again, but hasn't faced live hitters, and there are no plans for him to do so. Osuna is 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA with Lansing this season, striking out 31 and only walking 4 in 22 innings. If he proceeds with the surgery, Osuna likely won't return to action until the 2015 season.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Two Prospects, Two Different Results
Last night, righhander Marcus Stroman showed that he may not be as close to major league readiness as had been originally thought, while lefthander Daniel Norris demonstrated that he may be closer.
Duke grad Stroman, the Jays 1st pick in the 2012 draft, missed 50 games last year and this for a positive PED test. After a pair of promising relief outings for the Jays at the end of spring training, and a pair of impressive starts coming off his suspension for AA New Hampshire, Stroman was hit early and often by Portland last night, giving up 7 earned runs on 8 hits, while walking one and striking out 2 in just an inning in taking the loss. For the season with the Fisher Cats, Stroman is 1-1, with an 8.10 ERA bloated by last night's shellacking. After the recall of Chad Jenkins and Sean Nolin by the parent club, some thought Stroman might be next to get the call. This start likely shows that he still needs to gain some experience and arm strength that will come with further seasoning at AA.
Norris, the Jays 2nd pick in 2011, had well-documented struggles in his first pro season last year, and through his first several starts with Low A Lansing this season. Over his past 4 starts for the Lugnuts, however, his stuff has been electric. Last night against Fort Wayne, Norris gave up just a run on 4 hits over 4 innings, allowing 4 hits and 3 walks, while recording 6K's before reaching his pitch limit. Over his past 4 starts, Norris is 0-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In 37 innings this season, Norris has struck out 43, and last night's start lowered his ERA to 5.79. Norris may be farther away from the bigs than Stroman is, but his performance this past month has shown glimpses of his vast potential.
Duke grad Stroman, the Jays 1st pick in the 2012 draft, missed 50 games last year and this for a positive PED test. After a pair of promising relief outings for the Jays at the end of spring training, and a pair of impressive starts coming off his suspension for AA New Hampshire, Stroman was hit early and often by Portland last night, giving up 7 earned runs on 8 hits, while walking one and striking out 2 in just an inning in taking the loss. For the season with the Fisher Cats, Stroman is 1-1, with an 8.10 ERA bloated by last night's shellacking. After the recall of Chad Jenkins and Sean Nolin by the parent club, some thought Stroman might be next to get the call. This start likely shows that he still needs to gain some experience and arm strength that will come with further seasoning at AA.
Norris, the Jays 2nd pick in 2011, had well-documented struggles in his first pro season last year, and through his first several starts with Low A Lansing this season. Over his past 4 starts for the Lugnuts, however, his stuff has been electric. Last night against Fort Wayne, Norris gave up just a run on 4 hits over 4 innings, allowing 4 hits and 3 walks, while recording 6K's before reaching his pitch limit. Over his past 4 starts, Norris is 0-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In 37 innings this season, Norris has struck out 43, and last night's start lowered his ERA to 5.79. Norris may be farther away from the bigs than Stroman is, but his performance this past month has shown glimpses of his vast potential.
Alford Off to the GCL
The Blue Jays pursued a strategy in last year's draft that saw them roll the dice, and they looked for high-risk, high-reward prospects. They took Duke righthander Marcus Stroman with their first choice, a pitcher who some viewed as the closest to major league ready among all 2012 draftees, but possibly had a limited ceiling due to his hieght.
In the 2nd round, they took Ohio high school pitcher Matt Smoral - Smoral had been projected as a first round pick, but the lefthander tumbled to the Jays in the sandwich round because of a foot injury and signability concerns.
With their 3rd pick, the Jays reached outside the box once more and took Mississippi multiple-sport star Anthony Alford. A three-time state high school player of the year for Pearl High School, most teams were turned off by Alford's stated intent to play quarterback at Southern Mississippi. There was no doubt about Alford's talent: Baseball America had him ranked as the 36th best prospect prior to the 2012 draft; Keith Law had him at #48. He was widely considered a 5-tool player, but there was that football thing. The gambling Jays agreed to allow Alford to leave baseball early in August to chase his football dream, and he signed and reported to Florida.
The Jays assigned him to their Gulf Coast rookie team, where he hit .167/.250/.333 in only 20 plate appearances.
And then things began to fall apart for Alford. He started five games for Southern Miss, but the team scuffled along to an 0-12 record. In November, Alford was arrested for campus police for aggravated assault, a charge which was later reduced. The Golden Eagles released Alford from his scholarship in December, and reports in the new year indicated that he would be enrolling at Ole Miss. At spring practice, he played safety, before reporting to extended spring training last week.
Alford told Jason Munz of the Hattiesburg American that he would be reporting to the GCL Jays when their season opens in June, and then would be heading to short season Vancouver. Given his inexperience and lack of ABs this spring, that timetable may be wishful thinking. Bluefield might be a more likely destination than the Northwest League, which is made up mostly of college grads.
Clutchlings has been hesitant to rank Alford as a top prospect because of his football commitment and personal issues, but it will be truly interesting to watch his development this summer.
In the 2nd round, they took Ohio high school pitcher Matt Smoral - Smoral had been projected as a first round pick, but the lefthander tumbled to the Jays in the sandwich round because of a foot injury and signability concerns.
With their 3rd pick, the Jays reached outside the box once more and took Mississippi multiple-sport star Anthony Alford. A three-time state high school player of the year for Pearl High School, most teams were turned off by Alford's stated intent to play quarterback at Southern Mississippi. There was no doubt about Alford's talent: Baseball America had him ranked as the 36th best prospect prior to the 2012 draft; Keith Law had him at #48. He was widely considered a 5-tool player, but there was that football thing. The gambling Jays agreed to allow Alford to leave baseball early in August to chase his football dream, and he signed and reported to Florida.
The Jays assigned him to their Gulf Coast rookie team, where he hit .167/.250/.333 in only 20 plate appearances.
And then things began to fall apart for Alford. He started five games for Southern Miss, but the team scuffled along to an 0-12 record. In November, Alford was arrested for campus police for aggravated assault, a charge which was later reduced. The Golden Eagles released Alford from his scholarship in December, and reports in the new year indicated that he would be enrolling at Ole Miss. At spring practice, he played safety, before reporting to extended spring training last week.
Alford told Jason Munz of the Hattiesburg American that he would be reporting to the GCL Jays when their season opens in June, and then would be heading to short season Vancouver. Given his inexperience and lack of ABs this spring, that timetable may be wishful thinking. Bluefield might be a more likely destination than the Northwest League, which is made up mostly of college grads.
Clutchlings has been hesitant to rank Alford as a top prospect because of his football commitment and personal issues, but it will be truly interesting to watch his development this summer.
The History of Minor League Baseball: Restructuring and Decline 1962-1991
Minor league baseball entered the 1960s now completely dependent on support from the major leagues in order to survive. Television and expansion had eroded and/or taken away the biggest minor league markets.
Attendance continued its steep decline from the mid 1950s, and by 1962, the National Association had shrunk to 20 leagues and 132 clubs.
With the folding of so many teams and leagues, another reorganization of the minor league classification system was necessary by 1963, leaving us with something looking very much like the system we have today:
At the top was Triple A, followed by Double A and Single A leagues. A rookie level was created below that for players in their first year of pro ball. All levels below Class A were disbanded, with some of the leagues joining the new classifications.
A new Player Development plan was implemented, whereby major league teams agreed to financially support at least 5 minor league teams by subsidizing player salaries, team travel expenses, and club officials' salaries.
The number of leagues stayed fairly stable for much of this time period. The number of teams grew modestly after rounds of expansion in 1969 and 1976. For their part, major league teams likely appreciated the lower expense of maintaining five or six teams, as opposed to the empires of upwards of 20 teams clubs like the Dodgers and Yankees owned all or part of in the 30s and 40s.
Marketing was not nearly as intensive as it is for minor league teams now. In 1971, for example, the Philadelphia Phillies had 6 farm teams, with 5 of them using the Phillies nickname. Similarly, teams invested little in stadium infrastructure, with many teams playing in municipally-owned facilities that dated back to the 30s or 40s.
As a result, there were many who felt that the lower levels of minor league ball might not survive, and might even be replaced by college baseball, which had steadily been growing in popularity in the 60s and 70s.
With the outlook bleak, something remarkable happened: minor league baseball experienced a huge turnaround and a resulting boom in the 1980s. Many point to Buffalo as being the turning point. The city lost a major league expansion franchise because of the stadium they were to play in, aging War Memorial, built in 1937, and expanded many times over the years.
The stadium (known not always affectionately as The Rockpile) fell into rapid decline in the 1970s, when the NFL Bills vacated War Memorial for suburban Rich Stadium, because the stadium was deemed unacceptable by the terms of the NLF-AFL merger. Buffalo businessman Robert Rich, Jr, in a bout of civic pride, built downtown Pilot Field to house the International League's Bisons. In 1988, the Bisons shattered the minor league single-season attendance mark, drawing over 1 million fans. That same year, the Kevin Costner blockbuster Bull Durham brought renewed interest in minor league baseball.
A new round of stadium construction across the NAPBL soon followed, and the stage was set for another rebirth and re-emergence of the minor leagues.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Not So Fast, Ottawa: AA ball is Farther Away Than Thought
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| AA coming to the Nation's Capital ? Not so fast..... |
The City of Ottawa moved rapidly to bring minor league ball back to the Nation's Capital after city council gave its blessing last fall. After consulting with a number of groups in private talks, however, it seems that the plan has had a major setback, and the city is not ready to host a team for several years.
The Blue Jays Player Development contract with their AA Eastern League affiliate in New Hampshire expires after the 2014 season. Moving the club to Ottawa made sense for a number of reasons, including proximity to Toronto (many major league clubs prefer to assign their top prospects to AA ball), and the Jays' popularity in the National Capital Region would make for a good fit from a marketing perspective.
The city has come to realize, however, that development of the existing stadium is a bigger project than had been originally thought. The city had floated the idea of developing the parking lot beside the stadium into a residential development to help pay for the renovations, but the loss of parking spaces while a new underground lot is built would be detrimental to the new team. After the AAA Lynx left the city following the 2007 season, the owners indicated that losing parking spaces was a huge problem for the team. The renovations would come in at a minimum of just under $6 million to develop the stadium into a "total experience."
Another problem with the stadium site is its relatively inaccessible location. A new rail line, with a planned pedestrian bridge to the park, is in the works.
So it would take a minor miracle for Ottawa to come up with the funds to finance and complete the needed renovations by the spring of 2014, or even 2015. The Jays will likely have to either renew with New Hampshire for 2 more years, or negotiate with another AA club (preferable in the Eastern League) when their current PDC expires. The city is taking the longer view, hoping to put something in place that will attract and keep a minor league team for a long time, but the timing may not be right for a Jays AA affiliate in Ottawa for several more years.
Monday, May 27, 2013
Deconstructing Nolin
New Hampshire Fisher Cats lefthander Sean Nolin became the first of Clutchlings' pre-season Top 10 Blue Jays prospects to graduate to the major leagues last week, when he was summoned for a Friday home start against the Orioles.
That Nolin was called up was not a huge surprise; much of the talent ranked ahead of him is a level or two below him. And despite missing April with an injury, he was tabbed by several publications in March to be one of the first call-ups for the big club. He had been dominant in 3 May starts at AA.
Just the same, watching the first of our Top Prospect list make it to the majors was a little like watching your child about to walk across the stage at their high school graduation. Except that in this case, given the results of Nolin's start, it was more like watching your kid trip on their gown as they climbed the stairs, and tumble into the dais, knocking down the presenter, and a few faculty members in a domino-like sequence.
Nolin lasted but an inning and a third in his major league debut, giving up 6 earned runs, 7 hits, and 1 walk, with no strikeouts. Nolin threw 35 pitches, 22 for strikes. A little troubling is the fact that he generated only 1 swing and miss - he didn't miss many bats. I leave it up to the true sabermaticians to quantify the reasons for Nolin's struggles that day, but it comes down to this: Nolin, who admitted that he was more than pumped up for this game, likely showed a case of nerves, and while throwing mainly two and four seamer fastballs, had his troubles hitting the strike zone - and when he did, especially to righthanded hitters, caught too much of the strike zone.
That Nolin was called up was not a huge surprise; much of the talent ranked ahead of him is a level or two below him. And despite missing April with an injury, he was tabbed by several publications in March to be one of the first call-ups for the big club. He had been dominant in 3 May starts at AA.
Just the same, watching the first of our Top Prospect list make it to the majors was a little like watching your child about to walk across the stage at their high school graduation. Except that in this case, given the results of Nolin's start, it was more like watching your kid trip on their gown as they climbed the stairs, and tumble into the dais, knocking down the presenter, and a few faculty members in a domino-like sequence.
Nolin lasted but an inning and a third in his major league debut, giving up 6 earned runs, 7 hits, and 1 walk, with no strikeouts. Nolin threw 35 pitches, 22 for strikes. A little troubling is the fact that he generated only 1 swing and miss - he didn't miss many bats. I leave it up to the true sabermaticians to quantify the reasons for Nolin's struggles that day, but it comes down to this: Nolin, who admitted that he was more than pumped up for this game, likely showed a case of nerves, and while throwing mainly two and four seamer fastballs, had his troubles hitting the strike zone - and when he did, especially to righthanded hitters, caught too much of the strike zone.
We feel particularly bad for Nolin's parents, who drove for 10 hours to watch their son's brief MLB debut.
At the same time, even though he was sent back to New Hampshire after the game (which was likely the plan all along), Nolin has skyrocketed through the minors, and will be back at some point in the next calendar year. He last lost a game at Low A in 2011, going a perfect 10-0 at two levels. Thus far at New Hampshire, he is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA, with 16Ks in 15 innings.
We have a huge number of friends who are Jays fans, and many (incorrectly) criticized Nolin's promotion after the game. This was not a situation like Ricky Romero's in April (and man, now that you think about it, some front office people really need to be called to account on judging him ready after one start at High A), when desperation was a factor. With injuries wreaking havoc with the big club's starting staff, we had wondered earlier this month if former top prospect Deck McGuire might be in line for a promotion after a nice little series of good outings, but he's been roughed up a bit in his last couple of starts. Nolin was the best option available (the Buffalo Bisons are not in 2nd place in the International League's Northern Division on the strength of their starting pitching), and even though down the road he may profile better as a reliever (Keith Law rates his change up as "fringy"), it's easy to understand why the parent club put out the call for him. He's had a pretty dominant run over the past season and a bit.
Marc Hulet of Fangraphs doesn't think Nolin's recall was as logical as I do:
(T)he promotion of Nolin may not be in the best long-term interests of the club or the young pitching prospect.
From a business standpoint, Nolin doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the season. If he gets called up this year — prior to roster expansion on Sept. 1 — it presumably won’t be to stay so he’ll burn his first of three option years. Perhaps more importantly, the southpaw opened the year on the disabled list and has made just three starts in 2013, as well as just six starts above A-ball (including last year) for his career.
With Josh Johnson and J.A. Happ injured, Romero getting pounded in Buffalo, and much of the organization's depth at many positions depleted in an effort to bolster the major league roster, Nolin is about all there is available at this time.
The best thing for Nolin is for him to continue to build his arm strength at New Hampshire, and continue to work on his change. And forget about the outing against Baltimore.
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