Blue Jays Scouting Director Weighs in on MLB Draft

Riley Adams/milb.com photo

    Blue Jays Director of Amateur Scouting Steve Sanders moved to Toronto last fall after being named to the job following six years with the Red Sox, but with the duties that come with running the department charged with selecting players in the annual June draft, he admits that he hasn't seen a lot of the city just yet.

    We caught up with Sanders in Chicago, where he was waiting on a flight to Tampa.  The Under Armour Showcase, an annual gathering of the top draft-eligible high school players that takes place at Wrigley Field, had just wrapped up.  The East Coast Pro Showcase was on tap next for Florida, followed by the Area Code Games in California the week after.

   The Blue Jays' drafting philosophy had undergone a change under the leadership of President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins from the days of Alex Anthopolous, which was evident last year.  Up to 2015, the Blue Jays had been willing to roll the dice on draft day, selecting players with high upside, but often with accompanying high risk.  The high school pitcher, perhaps the riskiest commodity in the market, was the Blue Jays preference, as well as athletes in non-traditional baseball places.  In 2016, the club went with a more conservative approach, selecting college players with five of their first six picks, which may have been an effort to re-stock the system in response to the prospect dealing Anthopoulos did in his final year at the Blue Jays helm.

  Approaching the draft, the goal for Blue Jays scouts, says Sanders, is "a complete understanding of the player on and off the field....his strengths, weaknesses, and make-up."  Players are evaluated not just for their tools, but for their aptitutde, and coachability, and as Sanders says, "how their values align with our organization's."

   Working with the Blue Jays High Performance Department on evaluating players, Sanders says the club is always, "working to find new ways to gather and evaluate information more efficiently." For obvious reasons, he wouldn't divulge what some of the team's methods were, but it was well known that the Red Sox, his former employer, used neuroscience to help evaluate potential draftees.   Angus Mugford, who heads up the High Performance group, said just before the draft that his role was to create "a good physical and mental fundamental makeup of as many players as possible," with the mental component being a huge factor.  Make up has become a huge focus of the Blue Jays' evaluaton of prospects - Director of Player Development Gil Kim calls it "the sixth tool."  With talent levels being so even across a wide spectrum of players, it's often traits like grit and resilience that separate the prospects from the suspects. Sanders added that the Blue Jays' Area Scouts take pride in getting to know players - "the more we know (about a player), the better draft day decisions we can make."

  After taking over from former Scouting Director Blake Parker last fall, Sanders made few changes to the scouting staff.  In the early years of the Anthopoulos era, the Blue Jays had one of the largest amateur scouting staffs in baseball, but the numbers have been cut back over the past few years. Sanders felt that wholesale change wasn't necessary when he took over:  "this is a group that had a lot of success before I got here."  As for his philosophy on draft day, he says because each draft is unique in terms of the composition of its top players, and the important thing is to "attack the draft, adding as much impact talent as we can."  More often that not, this translates to the "best player available," when the Blue Jays' turn to select comes up each round.  Sanders says it's best to be "open-minded" when it comes to the draft - some years college players dominate, and sometimes there are more arms than bats, as well as the reverse.  In preparing for next year's draft, Sanders already suggests that it will be different in terms of its composition of top propsects than this year's was.


 Sanders was asked for some capsule comments on the team's top draft picks:

On North Carolina SS Logan Warmoth, taken 22nd overall:

He's a player we've scouted for a long time....he wasn't a propsect out of High School, but he steadily improved at North Carolina, and that really showed this year.  He's very steady and a well-rounded player, with a chance to stay at SS and hit for power.  His make up is off the charts, and he has the intangibles to be a top of the lineup hitter.

The second Blue Jays 1st rounder was Florida Juco RHP Nate Pearson:

His stuff in undeniable.  He's shown steady improvement, and (Area Scout) Matt Bishoff has known him for a long time.  It's not just his velocity, his secondaries are good pitches as well.  He's a good athlete, repeats his delivery well, and has the ingredients to be a top of the rotation arm.

  2nd round pick C Hagen Danner:

 Very athletic player who we scouted as both a catcher and a pitcher. Strong with projectable power, has a chance to be a run producer with the bat to go along with good hands and plus arm behind the plate. Was up to 95 with quality 3 pitch mix off the mound. Great competitor & teammate who bring a lot of winning attributes.

3rd rounder C Riley Adams:

Strong performer in his 3 years at USD and in the Cape league, has power to all fields and shown ability to hit for average and get on base. Easy arm strength and another very good athlete which we feel will help him stay behind the plate despite his larger frame. Works hard on both sides of the ball and continued to get better defensively throughout our looks this season.

4th round pick SS Kevin Smith:

 Quality defender with hands and instincts to stick at SS. Has some pullside power at the plate and showed off what he can do with the bat in the Cape league last summer. Student of the game that's remade parts of his swing over the last few years, did a nice job of making some adjustments this spring to bounce back from a slow start. As he continues to develop, we feel he has the tools to bring value on both sides of the ball as an everyday SS.

5th round pick 2B Cullen Large:

Offensive switch hitting infielder with feel for the bat from both sides. Quality performer for three years at William & Mary. Has played mostly 2B but may be able to move around some for added versatility.

6th rounder OF Brock Lundquist:

LHH college OF with feel to hit & track record of performance at Long Beach State. Can play both corners.

7th round pick RHP Colton Laws:

 Big 6'7 RHP with three pitch mix, gets downhill and throws a lot of strikes. Has impressive feel to pitch, size and angle add deception and can make him a tough look for hitters. Good athlete who was a basketball player in HS, feel he's going to continue to get better as he continues to log innings.

Canadian OF Tanner Kirwer, taken in the 20th round:

CF with plus speed to impact the game in the outfield and on the bases. Was starting to hit his stride offensively before being hit by pitch at the end of July (he was recently placed on the 60-day DL). Great makeup and energy, originally from Alberta, Canada before heading to Niagara U.

 
   As the draft heads into Day 2, the knowledge of the Area Scouts is "the locomotive that drives the process," according to Sanders, and is a good example of why these individuals are among the most important in the organization.  They know the players better than anyone, having seen them play over the course of several years.  The intuition of Area Scouts becomes even more important on Day 3, when there is little information available about players who have yet to be drafted.  Many selected at this point become what is known in the trade as "organization guys" - players drafted in order to fill rosters at the lower levels of the farm system.  But, as Sanders says, "for every guy we drafted, there was someone on the staff who believed in them."

   At 29, Sanders is one of the youngest Scouting Directors in baseball.  He is, in baseball terms, "a gamer."  Sanders attended Northwestern, but tore his labrum before attending the school, and redshirted his first three years.  After graduation, he interned with Dodgers in his hometown before moving across the country to become the Red Sox Amateur Scouting Coordinator in 2012, moving up to Assistant Director in 2015.  He has as reputation as having strong people and analytical skills.  When asked what allowed Sanders to stand out among the candidates the Blue Jays were considering for the job, Shapiro responded:

 It was helpful that Steve had worked with people that we knew well and aligned with like Ben Cherington, Mike Hazen and Mike Murov.  Throughout our time with him, he was thoughtful, intelligent, passionate and humble.  Steve impressed upon us that he was driven to learn and improve – and more importantly help others do the same.  He also exuded many of the leadership traits that I think separate great leaders.  Even better, he has over delivered on those interview attributes in his everyday leadership.  He works to build strong, respectful relationships throughout our organization and to utilize every person and source of information to help us make better scouting decisions.  We are fortunate to have Steve leading our Amateur Scouting staff.

  Once things settle down at the end of the summer, Sanders admits that he's looking forward to getting to know Toronto better before planning and scouting for next year's draft begins.

 

Blue Jays Draft Recap: The Top Guys

Charlotte Observer Photo

  The internet is full of evaluations from a variety of sources about the Blue Jays draft.
I don't pretend for a moment to know all that much about any of the prospects, and much of what follows is a summary of online reports and my own observations from watching video.  Just the same, here's a look at the Blue Jays top draft picks:

Logan Warmoth  SS North Carolina
    Described by many as a "safe pick", Warmoth has been comped with long-time MLB SS J.J. Hardy, and that's a reasonable projection.
   In the field, Warmoth has fluid movements, combining agility with good hands and footwork. When he has time, he sets and makes strong, accurate throws.  He can also make that crossfire, on-the-run throw to first.  His arm is currently ranked as the strongest tool in his kit.  He's projected to stay at SS, and the Blue Jays will likely give him every opportunity to do so, although some reports suggest he's better off as a 2B long term.
   He has what is described as a solid approach at the plate, but it appears that he makes a lot of groundball contact and may have to work at adding some loft to his swing.  He has a simple, quiet set up, using a toe tap to start his load.  There's not a lot of movement in his short, compact swing.  He should put a lot of balls in play, and because of his ability to work a count, he should see a fair number of balls to barrel.
  Warmoth has been lauded for his baseball IQ, and in a trend that the Blue Jays are for the moment at the leading edge of, makeup.
   Warmoth should start the season at Vancouver, but could easily finish up at Lansing, depending on the playoff hunts of both teams.  He may move quickly through the system, and in most cases might be among the first of his draft class to make it to MLB.

Nate Pearson RHP College of Central Florida (JC)
   With their second first round pick, the Blue Jays opted to go for upside and chose Pearson, who has topped 100 several times this season, and usually sits 96-98.
   Unlike a lot of fireballers, Pearson works mostly down in the zone, getting good eye plane-changing downward movement.
  Pitching from a 3/4, semi-stretch delivery, there are not a lot of moving parts to his motion.  Pearson uses his lower half very well, and throws with intent.  At 6'6"/240, he is an imposing presence on the mound, and with his size and a glove flip during his delivery, can be very hard on right hand hitters.
He does not land in a good fielding position, however, and that part of his mechanics will need some refining.
   Pearson relies on his fastball, and has a slider that shows some promise with some late break.  His curve is not a well developed pitch - he often gets on top of it, and does not disguise it well.  It's highly likely that he will shelve that pitch once he turns pro.  His change is described as a work in progress.  There's a lot to like with that fastball, however, which should buy his secondaries time to develop.
   Scouts were encouraged that Pearson was able to maintain his velocity late into games.  He has a commitment to LSU, so there is no guarantee that he will sign.  The pick is protected, so the Blue Jays are covered if Pearson decides to return to school.  Drafting Warmoth with the first pick was a safe bet in the event that Pearson does not sign.
     There has been speculation that he could be moved to the bullpen full time, in which case he projects to possibly breeze through the minors and find himself in the back end of a major league pen with that velo in short order.  The more likely scenario is that the Blue Jays audition him as a starter, in which case he likely starts his season in Bluefield.  There is a considerable high risk/high reward element to this pick:  Pearson could develop into a solid starter if he can harness his secondaries, or he could become a lights out bullpen arm.  There is also a chance that he returns to school if the Blue Jays are unwilling to go much over slot for him.

Hagen Danner P/C California HS
  Selected with the 61st pick overall, Danner was one of the most intriguing players in the draft due to his two-way abilities, but scouts appear divided on where his prospects are best in the long term.
  He throws a three-pitch mix which includes a fastball that can touch 95, and will almost certainly add a tick or two to that as a pro.  Behind the plate, he has been termed a solid defensive Catcher who lacks elite bat speed.
  It will be interesting to see which direction the Blue Jays go with Danner.  Will they move him to one position or the other, or given the need for versatility on a 25-man roster in this day and age of multi-arm bullpens, will they allow him to play both?
  On the showcase circuit, Danner spent more time pitching than he did behind the plate, and that may be a clue as to where his future lies.  The GCL appears to be a logical starting point for Danner, but he probably won't finish the season there.

Riley Adams C San Diego
   Adams is a bat-first Catcher who improved his stock considerably this spring.
At 6'4", he's a bit big for the position, and scouts have noted inconsistencies with this throwing and receiving skills.  More than one report indicated that his makeup is considered plus, which was no doubt a factor in the Blue Jays selecting him.
  Adams hit well in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer, adding legitimacy to his hit tool, but his swing is long, and there is a swing-and-miss element to his game, although he does see a lot of pitches.
  Adams should start the season at Vancouver.

A few final thoughts:
-it's worth remembering that as much as we cram in the days leading up to the draft, we don't really know these players.  Scouts do.  They've been following most of the players in their areas since their sophomore years of high school.  They've talked to the players, their parents, and their coaches. Scouts have a much better of the make up of a player than the rest of us do.  And with the physical talents between many draftees being only slight in terms of their differences, it's make up that often separates the prospects from the suspects.

-not that they have no value, but I don't tend to obsess much over guys picked later than the third round. These are the players that statistically speaking have the highest chance of reaching the majors.  The upper minors, of course, are littered with guys selected in lower rounds than that, but rather than take a shot-gun approach, I try to focus on the top selections.  Historically, they have the better chance of advancing.  After Round Three, the scouting staff typically takes over selecting players, and while they're always looking for that "arm behind the barn," to borrow a phrase from another era, the main purpose of picking players beyond that point is to stock rosters of the lower level affiliates.

-while there are almost a limitless supply of scouting reports and video online, most of it is in isolation - there's very little game action video, so you don't get a true sense of how a player responds in game situations.  And this is why that even though I read through all that material to get a sense of a player's profile, they're pretty much a blank slate to me, and I look forward to seeing them live (yours truly has not one, but two trips to Vancouver planned for this summer - helps to have family out there) or online.  I promise to have plenty of photos, video, and reports.

-speaking of the latter, if you can't make it out to the Left Coast this summer to watch the C's, broadcaster Rob Fai has confirmed that the Saturday night televised Canadians games will continue this summer.  Shaw TV televised the games last year, and while the games were not shown live east of Sault Ste Marie, they were available on YouTube.  Shaw sold its media division in order to get into the wireless market, and there were concerns that the new owners of Shaw TV properties, Corus Entertainment, would not be interested in showing the games.  It's only a half dozen games, but viewers get an excellent chance to watch some of the Jays prospects sent to Vancouver in action.