Blue Jays Scouting Director Weighs in on MLB Draft

Riley Adams/milb.com photo

    Blue Jays Director of Amateur Scouting Steve Sanders moved to Toronto last fall after being named to the job following six years with the Red Sox, but with the duties that come with running the department charged with selecting players in the annual June draft, he admits that he hasn't seen a lot of the city just yet.

    We caught up with Sanders in Chicago, where he was waiting on a flight to Tampa.  The Under Armour Showcase, an annual gathering of the top draft-eligible high school players that takes place at Wrigley Field, had just wrapped up.  The East Coast Pro Showcase was on tap next for Florida, followed by the Area Code Games in California the week after.

   The Blue Jays' drafting philosophy had undergone a change under the leadership of President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins from the days of Alex Anthopolous, which was evident last year.  Up to 2015, the Blue Jays had been willing to roll the dice on draft day, selecting players with high upside, but often with accompanying high risk.  The high school pitcher, perhaps the riskiest commodity in the market, was the Blue Jays preference, as well as athletes in non-traditional baseball places.  In 2016, the club went with a more conservative approach, selecting college players with five of their first six picks, which may have been an effort to re-stock the system in response to the prospect dealing Anthopoulos did in his final year at the Blue Jays helm.

  Approaching the draft, the goal for Blue Jays scouts, says Sanders, is "a complete understanding of the player on and off the field....his strengths, weaknesses, and make-up."  Players are evaluated not just for their tools, but for their aptitutde, and coachability, and as Sanders says, "how their values align with our organization's."

   Working with the Blue Jays High Performance Department on evaluating players, Sanders says the club is always, "working to find new ways to gather and evaluate information more efficiently." For obvious reasons, he wouldn't divulge what some of the team's methods were, but it was well known that the Red Sox, his former employer, used neuroscience to help evaluate potential draftees.   Angus Mugford, who heads up the High Performance group, said just before the draft that his role was to create "a good physical and mental fundamental makeup of as many players as possible," with the mental component being a huge factor.  Make up has become a huge focus of the Blue Jays' evaluaton of prospects - Director of Player Development Gil Kim calls it "the sixth tool."  With talent levels being so even across a wide spectrum of players, it's often traits like grit and resilience that separate the prospects from the suspects. Sanders added that the Blue Jays' Area Scouts take pride in getting to know players - "the more we know (about a player), the better draft day decisions we can make."

  After taking over from former Scouting Director Blake Parker last fall, Sanders made few changes to the scouting staff.  In the early years of the Anthopoulos era, the Blue Jays had one of the largest amateur scouting staffs in baseball, but the numbers have been cut back over the past few years. Sanders felt that wholesale change wasn't necessary when he took over:  "this is a group that had a lot of success before I got here."  As for his philosophy on draft day, he says because each draft is unique in terms of the composition of its top players, and the important thing is to "attack the draft, adding as much impact talent as we can."  More often that not, this translates to the "best player available," when the Blue Jays' turn to select comes up each round.  Sanders says it's best to be "open-minded" when it comes to the draft - some years college players dominate, and sometimes there are more arms than bats, as well as the reverse.  In preparing for next year's draft, Sanders already suggests that it will be different in terms of its composition of top propsects than this year's was.


 Sanders was asked for some capsule comments on the team's top draft picks:

On North Carolina SS Logan Warmoth, taken 22nd overall:

He's a player we've scouted for a long time....he wasn't a propsect out of High School, but he steadily improved at North Carolina, and that really showed this year.  He's very steady and a well-rounded player, with a chance to stay at SS and hit for power.  His make up is off the charts, and he has the intangibles to be a top of the lineup hitter.

The second Blue Jays 1st rounder was Florida Juco RHP Nate Pearson:

His stuff in undeniable.  He's shown steady improvement, and (Area Scout) Matt Bishoff has known him for a long time.  It's not just his velocity, his secondaries are good pitches as well.  He's a good athlete, repeats his delivery well, and has the ingredients to be a top of the rotation arm.

  2nd round pick C Hagen Danner:

 Very athletic player who we scouted as both a catcher and a pitcher. Strong with projectable power, has a chance to be a run producer with the bat to go along with good hands and plus arm behind the plate. Was up to 95 with quality 3 pitch mix off the mound. Great competitor & teammate who bring a lot of winning attributes.

3rd rounder C Riley Adams:

Strong performer in his 3 years at USD and in the Cape league, has power to all fields and shown ability to hit for average and get on base. Easy arm strength and another very good athlete which we feel will help him stay behind the plate despite his larger frame. Works hard on both sides of the ball and continued to get better defensively throughout our looks this season.

4th round pick SS Kevin Smith:

 Quality defender with hands and instincts to stick at SS. Has some pullside power at the plate and showed off what he can do with the bat in the Cape league last summer. Student of the game that's remade parts of his swing over the last few years, did a nice job of making some adjustments this spring to bounce back from a slow start. As he continues to develop, we feel he has the tools to bring value on both sides of the ball as an everyday SS.

5th round pick 2B Cullen Large:

Offensive switch hitting infielder with feel for the bat from both sides. Quality performer for three years at William & Mary. Has played mostly 2B but may be able to move around some for added versatility.

6th rounder OF Brock Lundquist:

LHH college OF with feel to hit & track record of performance at Long Beach State. Can play both corners.

7th round pick RHP Colton Laws:

 Big 6'7 RHP with three pitch mix, gets downhill and throws a lot of strikes. Has impressive feel to pitch, size and angle add deception and can make him a tough look for hitters. Good athlete who was a basketball player in HS, feel he's going to continue to get better as he continues to log innings.

Canadian OF Tanner Kirwer, taken in the 20th round:

CF with plus speed to impact the game in the outfield and on the bases. Was starting to hit his stride offensively before being hit by pitch at the end of July (he was recently placed on the 60-day DL). Great makeup and energy, originally from Alberta, Canada before heading to Niagara U.

 
   As the draft heads into Day 2, the knowledge of the Area Scouts is "the locomotive that drives the process," according to Sanders, and is a good example of why these individuals are among the most important in the organization.  They know the players better than anyone, having seen them play over the course of several years.  The intuition of Area Scouts becomes even more important on Day 3, when there is little information available about players who have yet to be drafted.  Many selected at this point become what is known in the trade as "organization guys" - players drafted in order to fill rosters at the lower levels of the farm system.  But, as Sanders says, "for every guy we drafted, there was someone on the staff who believed in them."

   At 29, Sanders is one of the youngest Scouting Directors in baseball.  He is, in baseball terms, "a gamer."  Sanders attended Northwestern, but tore his labrum before attending the school, and redshirted his first three years.  After graduation, he interned with Dodgers in his hometown before moving across the country to become the Red Sox Amateur Scouting Coordinator in 2012, moving up to Assistant Director in 2015.  He has as reputation as having strong people and analytical skills.  When asked what allowed Sanders to stand out among the candidates the Blue Jays were considering for the job, Shapiro responded:

 It was helpful that Steve had worked with people that we knew well and aligned with like Ben Cherington, Mike Hazen and Mike Murov.  Throughout our time with him, he was thoughtful, intelligent, passionate and humble.  Steve impressed upon us that he was driven to learn and improve – and more importantly help others do the same.  He also exuded many of the leadership traits that I think separate great leaders.  Even better, he has over delivered on those interview attributes in his everyday leadership.  He works to build strong, respectful relationships throughout our organization and to utilize every person and source of information to help us make better scouting decisions.  We are fortunate to have Steve leading our Amateur Scouting staff.

  Once things settle down at the end of the summer, Sanders admits that he's looking forward to getting to know Toronto better before planning and scouting for next year's draft begins.

 

Do Trades for Prospects Really Work?

Franklin Barreto - milb.com photo

  On November 28th, 2014, then-Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos dealt 3rd Baseman Brett Lawrie and three prospects for Oakland 3B Josh Donaldson.  It was not the first time Anthopoulos had dealt prospects in an attempt to bolster the major league roster, of course, and the November deal did not bring about an end to his prospect dealing.  In 4 separate deadline deals in 2015, Anthopoulos dealt a total of 10 prospects at the July trade deadline.

   At that time, many hard core Blue Jays fans had mixed feelings.  On the one hand, the club was able to pick up key pieces like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price without sacrificing a player from the 25-man roster.  On the other, the club parted with some top prospects like Jeff Hoffman and Daniel Norris, and dealt some of its prospect depth.

   By September, of 2015, however, most of that concern had long since faded away.  The Blue Jays turned their season around, playing scorching baseball down the stretch to break a two decades long playoff drought.   As the 2017 season progresses, the team's aging core is showing signs of wear and tear, and while the farm system is producing talent in abundance,  in the words of President Mark Shaprio, "Most of it is at the lower levels."  The club looks to be at the fringes of a post-season berth, at best.

   Will Shapiro and his front office colleagues be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?  Will they look to shed some contractual obligations, or will they try to once again upgrade the major league roster by dealing some of that far-off prospect depth?

   History suggests that dealing for prospects doesn't always work.  Here's a look at the deals Anthopoulos made to give us much of the current big league roster, and an analysis of the benefits they brought to the club:

November 28, 2014
   Josh Donaldson for Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Brett Lawrie.

    Donaldson has provided 17.7 WAR (BR's version) of value, an MVP award, and led the team to a pair of post-season appearances since his acquisiton.  Barreto won the Northwest League's MVP award that year at the tender age of 18, and was the centrepiece of that deal.  He made his MLB debut in June, and was returned to AAA after hitting .190/.262/.381.  Graveman did a decent job in the back of the Athletics' rotation last year, but injuries have limited him to 8 starts this year, and he's currently on a rehab assignment.  The oft-injured Noin made 6 starts for Oakland in 2015, spent all of last year on the DL, and was picked up by Milwaukee on waivers last fall.  He's been on the DL again since Opening Day.  Lawrie was dealt to the White Sox after one season, and was released early in spring training this year, and has yet to catch on with an MLB organization.
    It was sad to see Barreto go, but he was so far away (and there was considerable doubt about his eventual position), so the victors in this deal were clearly the Blue Jays.

July 28, 2015
   Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins for Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco.
   
    Tulo plugged the gaping hole at SS that was Reyes, and Hawkins stablilized the 7th inning for the club, and both were integral parts of the run to the pennant that year.  Hoffman was a 1st round pick in 2014, but was coming off Tommy John surgery.  He made 4 starts for Colorado in 2016, and now has become a mainstay of their rotation, but like many pitchers who ply their trade in Coors Field, his numbers are a bit unsightly.  Castro was an electric-armed reliever who rocketed through the Blue Jays farm system in 2014, and broke camp with the club the following year, even though he had never pitched about High A.  MLB hitters teed off on his fastball, which consistently caught too much of the plate, and he was back in the minors after a month.  Traded to Baltimore at the start of this season, Castro has been on the MLB/AAA shuffle, but appears to be sticking with the O's this time around, and has posted a 2.70 ERA in 26 innings.  Tinoco made great progress in Low A in 2015, but has struggled since then, and has yet to pitch above High A.
   Hawkins retired after 2015, and while Tulo has had his struggles with the bat this year, and is possibly out for the season after injuring his ankle this weekend,  the Blue Jays are once again clearly the hands-down winners of this deal.  His contributions on and off the field have been numerous.

July 30, 2015
   David Price for Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd
    On paper, this deal had the greatest potential to be win-win for both sides.  Price gave the Blue Jays a legitimate ace, and Norris and Boyd promised to give the Tigers some long-term rotation depth.
     Price, of course, moved on to the Red Sox as a free agent at the end of the season.  Norris had some health issues, but over the last month of 2016 appeared to be on the verge of becoming a front-of-the-rotation arm.  Boyd was never a highly-heralded prospect, but all he did as a minor leaguer was get hitters out.  He made 18 starts for the Tigers in 2016, and it was easy to pencil him in as a back-of-the-rotation guy for 2017.  Both have had their struggles this year:  Norris posted a 5.29 ERA in 16 starts before going on the DL in early July, and is rehabbing in AAA; Boyd has been on the Detroit-Toledo shuffle after making the club out of spring training, and is currently with the Tigers.
    Price led the Blue Jays to the post-season.  Norris and Boyd have not put the Tigers over the top.  If there was a winner in this deal, a slight edge would go to the Blue Jays, although they have proved they could have used some starting pitching depth this year.

July 31st, 2015
   Mark Lowe for Jake Brentz and Nick Wells.
    Lowe, along with Hawkins, helped bolster the Blue Jays pennant run in 2015.  He left for the Tigers as a free agent after the season, and has bounced to the Mariners and the White Sox, for whom he's pitching in AAA at the moment.
    Brentz was a project - a guy who hadn't pitched a whole lot before being drafted, and was still learning the craft in 2015.  Dealt to the Pirates last year, he was moved to the bullpen full time this year, and was recently promoted to AA.  In four pro seasons, Wells has not pitched above Low A.
    This is a  deal that is almost a wash, except for the fact that Lowe played some post-season ball in 2015.

July 31, 2015
   Ben Revere for Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado.
   Revere played very well for the Blue Jays for two months in 2015, and was a fixture at the top of the order, getting on base at a rate well above his career average.  Things have been pretty much downhill for him since then.
   Cordero had a fastball that could reach triple digits, but he didn't always know where it was going, and he's walked as many (32) as he has struck out in 42 innings at AA this year.  Tirado seems to have been around forever, but is only 22.  He had been moved to the bullpen that year after having difficulties as a starter, but the Phillies sent him from High to Low A last year in an attempt to move him back into the rotation.  It seems to have succeeded, as Tirado was promoted to AA recently.
    Slight edge to the Blue Jays.  Revere is long gone, but he gave the club two months of value and contributed to a pennant winner.

   There was some wringing of hands among Blue Jays fans about the number of prospects that were given up, but the truth of the matter is that the only quality players the team gave up were Barreto, Norris, and Hoffman, and all three have yet to make a big impact at the major league level.  The Blue Jays in 2015 were still able to hang onto the prospects they were least willing to part with (Anthony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, Richard Ureña, Conner Greene, Sean Reid-Foley), and yet they acquired key pieces to their pennant drive.
   Recent research by Baseball America suggests that prospect deals made at the trade deadline don't work out for the team acquiring prospects more often than they do.  Most teams now are very reluctant to give up young, controllable players whom they've already invested a great deal of time and money in. And the Blue Jays' experience in 2015 seems to point in that direction.  The short-term gain the team experienced more than cancelled out any long term consequences of the deal, and they still were able to hold on to the prospects the prized the most.

 

Cherington Adds to Blue Jays Front Office Wealth

  In the midst of a pennant race last fall, the Blue Jays made an acquisition that may have escaped the attention of most fans, but served as another piece in the puzzle that President Mark Shapiro has been putting together to shape the long-term foundation of the team by hiring former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington to become their VP of Baseball Operations.

   Cherington had taken the Red Sox from worst-to-first in 2013, leading a team that had finished last in the AL East the year before to a World Series title.  Along the way, he oversaw the addition of elite prospects like Mookie Betts, Xander Boegaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr, as well as the since-traded Yoan Moncada. After signing free agents such as Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Cuban Rusney Castillo, the Red Sox found themselves back in the cellar in 2014 and 2015, and after Dave Dombrowski was brought in to oversee the organization, Cherington chose to resign rather than continue with the Red Sox.

   Cherington spent a year away from the game, teaching sports management at Columbia University in New York (he has a Masters from Mass-Amherst in Sports Admin).  During that time, he spent considerable time contemplating his future in the game, and came to the conclusion that it did not necessarily have to be in the GM's chair.  He told the Boston Globe:

 There probably was a time in my career where I was aspiring to a title because at a certain point in your career, and if you have aspirations to be a GM, which I did, there are steps you have to do to get there,” he said. “There are titles that are of importance to some degree as you’re sort of building yourself to be prepared to be a GM and then be a GM. I was aspiring to that. I don’t feel that anymore.

  Enter Shapiro, who hired Cherington as an Advance Scout in 1998, before he left for Boston.  Shapiro knew about Cherington's revised aspirations, and jumped at the chance to bring one of the most respected player development minds in the game (prior to becoming the Sox' GM, Cherington held various positions in the Boston front office, including Coordinator of International Scouting, and Director of Player Development) to Toronto.  For Cherington's part, he said in an email that he was looking for the right situation to make his return to the game:

 When I started looking for a job last summer I was focused on finding an opportunity with the right group of people, in a place where I could make a contribution, and in a place where I could learn.  The Blue Jays opportunity checked all of those boxes and I was fortunate that they felt I could be of some help.  Since I’ve been here I’ve gotten to know the group even better and feel really fortunate to work with such a strong group of smart, humble people who are focused on getting better every day. 

     As VP of Baseball Ops, Cherington is responsible for all aspects of the Blue Jays player development program, including the newest department in the organization:

 I’m trying to collaborate with the baseball ops leadership group to help in any area that I can.  Hopefully I can do that.  I am spending more time with our player development and high performance staff and that’s an exciting area to be involved with the Blue Jays right now.  We’ve got outstanding leadership in Gil Kim, Angus Mugford, Eric Wedge, and many more.  Our staff worked tirelessly all winter to prepare for spring training and trying to figure out the best way to help players get better.  It’s been exciting to see that unfold this spring.  I’ve learned a lot already in 6 months.  

 Under former GM Alex Anthopoulos, the primary purpose of the farm system was to provide currency to upgrade the major league roster.  From November 2015 to the end of July the following year, he dealt 18 prospects in order to acquire proven MLB talent like Troy Tulowitzki, David Price, and Josh Donaldson.  In the late fall, he dealt away a passel of prospects including Noah Syndergaard for R.A Dickey, and another to the Marlins for a return which included Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle.

  While Anthopoulos' wheeling and dealing did bring post-season baseball back to Toronto, it also left the major league roster on the old side, and a farm system that had been emptied of much of its depth. Cherington would not come right out and say that such a development would not happen under his watch, but his player development roots are obvious:

Player development's job is to help players get better.  Period.  If we do that successfully then we are impacting player's lives on the field and off.  If we do that successfully we are also helping the Blue Jays by preparing players to be part of a winning Blue Jays Major League team.  Along the way there may be times when trading a minor league player makes sense.  So our job is to help players get better which in turn supports the Blue Jays mission to bring a World Series back to Canada.  

  And while the Blue Jays system did take a hit, there still is top-level talent in the system, and a decent draft last year helped rebuild it quickly.  Under Anthopoulos and departed Amateur Scouting director Blake Parker, the emphasis was on finding high-risk/high-reward athletes, including players from non-traditional markets, high schoolers with college commitments, and others whose draft stock had tumbled for a variety of reasons.  While not tipping his hand in terms of his drafting philosophy, Cherington did indicate that when it comes time to pick in the June draft, the Blue Jays will always go with the best player:

 Our amateur staff, under the leadership of Tony LaCava and Steve Sanders, works tirelessly to identify the best players available in the draft and there is a process to line those players up on the draft board in June.  Ultimately when its our time to pick we’ll take the best player.  If those players come more from a certain demographic in a given year I think that’s a function of how that particular draft unfolded, not a bias toward one demographic or another. 

   As for the international market, seen as one of Cherington's biggest success (despite the Red Sox getting dinged heavily for signing violations during his tenure) , he's confident that the combined efforts of Assistant GM Andrew Tinnish and Director of Latin American Operations Sandy Rosario will allow the Blue Jays to continue to be major players in that market.  As far as the prospects of a potential International Draft, Cherington isn't losing sleep over it:

It’s really not something we think about on a day to day basis and if there are ever further changes to the International signing rules, I know we have the people to make the right adjustments. 

   When asked where he thinks where the Blue Jays farm system ranks, Cherington prefers to be concerned about his own system, and not how it might compare to others:

I’ve been really impressed with our players and staff commitment to getting better.  And I’ve seen that happen between instructional league and spring training.  It’s exciting to see the progress.  And we have a lot of talent that is maturing.  Some of those guys have had a chance to make an impression in big league camp.  Some are doing that in minor league camp.  I’m excited to see what they do during the season.  We’re so focused on what we need to do every day to get better I haven’t spent any time thinking about other systems.  

    Mark Shapiro has wasted little time in assembling what is shaping up to be a top-flight organization.  There were not wholesale changes at first, but slowly he's been placing strong personnel in key positions throughout the organization, and has created the high performance division to help give the Blue Jays a potential competitive advantage when it comes to the development of their players.  The addition of Cherington solidifies the idea that Shapiro is endeavouring to build a system that is a model of player development.  He has brought in the likes of Cherington, Sanders,  Director of Operations Mike Murov, and Director of Player Development Gil Kim to add to a solid stable of holdovers from the Anthopoulos era like LaCava, Tinnish, Dana Brown, and Perry Minasian.  Often hampered by small-market constraints in Cleveland, Shapiro now has the resources to build an organization that could be poised to be competitive on an annual basis.  For someone who has been following the Blue Jays minor league system closely for five years, and has been a fan of the team since that snowy April day 40 years ago, this is a very welcome and exciting development. With all due respect to the management team that served under former GM Pat Gillick, there has never been such a wealth of front office talent in this organization.  And when you speak with members of that front office, you get a sense that this is a very cohesive, on-the-same-page group.  Add in the high performance division, and couple that with the anticipated changes to the minor league training complex, and the high degree of collaboration between the various facets of the player development side (minor league ops, scouting, and high performance) and the future for the Blue Jays looks very bright indeed.

Shapiro, Jays Take Grilling Over Spring Training Funding

#BlueJays Mark Shapiro & gang in Pinellas, making case for Dunedin spring training expansion and county subsidies. #SportsBiz pic.twitter.com/5Xt326fY6c

— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) March 15, 2017

  Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro was front-and-center at a meeting today of the board which determines who gets funding (and how much) from the Pinellas County hotel tax fund.  The Blue Jays have applied to the fund to help pay for upgrades to the Blue Jays minor league complex, and improvements to aged Florida Auto Exchange Stadium, where the team plays its spring training games.
   Shapiro told the board, "We don't want just want a spring training facility....we want a 365 day home," referring to the team's high performance division, which is headquartered at the Mattick Complex.  He faced a sceptical audience, however, and when he cited the oft-quoted figure of $70 million economic impact that the Blue Jays have during their six-week stay in Dunedin, a few eyeballs rolled:

#BlueJays consultant says Pinellas would lose $90M/yr if team left #Dunedin. Economists across the globe smack foreheads. https://t.co/aSOLA0GzSA

— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) March 15, 2017

    Things began to become a bit testy when team officials were raked over the coals because apparently they had not prepared the proper financial statements:

"I don't need you to tell me you love me," @CharlieGerdes tells #BlueJays leaders - says he needs to see their expected financials. https://t.co/aSOLA0GzSA

— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) March 15, 2017

  In response, the Blue Jays reminded the board that Dunedin has been the only spring training home the team has ever known:

Jays remind Pinellas they're the only MLB team never to switch spring training home (40yrs and counting). https://t.co/aSOLA0GzSA

— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) March 15, 2017

  In defending the Blue Jays, Dunedin Mayor Julie Ward Buljaski noted that the team will assume maintenance costs for the facilities, which is something most teams don't do.  Still, the exchange between the team and the board became testy, with one member asking what the team will do if they don't get the necessary funding:

#BlueJays name-drop Arizona; @CharlieGerdes asks if they're moving without this $$; Team responds that "Our goal is to stay." https://t.co/aSOLA0GzSA

— Shadow of Stadium (@StadiumShadow) March 15, 2017

   Now, it is true that the economic impact of pro sports teams building new facilities may be very overestimated.  Stanford Professor Roger Noll published a landmark study which suggests that compared to, say, a shopping mall, stadiums do not create employment, local economic growth, or the incremental tax growth incurred to finance the stadium in order to overcome its cost.  Just the same, it's hard to see the team going anywhere anytime soon.  A source very close to the situation suggested that this hearing today was a very normal part of the process, and because there are only a few other much smaller proposals in front of the board for consideration, the Blue Jays' application will likely be approved.  The source also suggested that there may have been some bias against the team from several media sources present, who reported mostly the negative aspects of the hearing today.

   The Blue Jays and Pinellas County will resume talks next Wednesday, and while the team will still likely face some scrutiny from the board, Blue Jays fans should not necessarily be looking at Arizona real estate and airline prices just yet.  There is a lengthy history between the Blue Jays and Dunedin, and while there was some acrimony today, the deal is still expected to go through.

Blue Jays/Dunedin Spring Training Deal One Step Closer

 

The Toronto Blue Jays and the City of Dunedin are about to become one step closer to realizing a plan to keep the team in the only spring training home they’ve ever known.

  After two years of negotiations, the two sides reached a deal last fall that would bring about significant upgrades to the Blue Jays minor league complex, and Florida Auto Exchange Stadium, home of Toronto’s spring training games, and the Dunedin Blue Jays of the Class A Advanced Florida State League.

 In a perfect world, the Blue Jays would prefer to have the stadium and minor league complex, which are separated by about a ten-minute drive, under one roof.  Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro told the Tampa Bay Times  in September that while a one-stop facility would be ideal, the team’s greatest need is for a year-round, state-of-the-art facility, which this deal ensures.  “You never make deals and achieve an ideal state,” he told the Times, “but once we had time to thoroughly assess Dunedin as a partner, the benefits far outweighed everything else.”

  The cost of the upgrades will come in at around $81 million.  Pinellas County will contribute $46 million of that total, much of which will come from a 6% local hotel bed tax.  The team will kick in $15.6 million, and the City has applied for funding for its share ($5.6 million).  Dunedin is eligible for matching funds from the State of Florida for up to $20 million.  Dunedin applied to the County for funding, and sources close to the situation indicated that things look good for their application to be approved shortly.  Only a handful of other applications were received, and for amounts significantly less than Dunedin is seeking.

  The upgrades will occur at the minor league complex, which will be significantly renovated to provide medical, training, and locker facilities for up to 250 players.  It is hoped that bids to renovate FAES will be out before summer.  Construction would start there once the Florida State League season ends in September, with renovations to be complete by 2019.  The D-Jays will have to relocate to another stadium for the 2018 season, likely to one of the other spring training stadiums in the area.

  The economic impact of spring training to Dunedin has been pegged at $70 million.  There is a 40-year history between the city and the Blue Jays, and many Canadians have purchased real estate in the area.  The Blue Jays had entered talks with the Astros about combining on a new facility in Palm Beach Gardens, but opted out of those discussions to focus on renewing their deal with Dunedin, which was set to expire this spring.  The new deal will keep the team on the Gulf Coast for another 25 years.  

Vladdy Jr: Top Prospect Poster Boy

   Baseball America, minor league baseball's premier publication, named Vladimir Guerrero Jr their top Toronto Blue Jays prospect. To the surprise of few (myself included).

  After naming him the Blue Jays' 10th prospect last year, I was going solely by reputation.  This year, after getting glowing reports on him and watching a great deal of video of his plate appearances, I am all in.

   It's quite an accomplishment for a 17 year old with one season of short season experience to make the kind of leap Vladdy Jr has made, but his pitch recognition and bat speed make for a lethal combination of eye-to-barrel skills.  His baseball instincts and the strides he made on defence this year are just icing on the cake.  The biggest concern heading into his first year of pro ball was what his ultimate position will be, but he made such drastic strides in his footwork and release that scouts now profile him as an adequate corner sacker at least - the Edwin Encarnacion comps are becoming more and more numerous (although he's a better base runner than Edwin).  Even if Guerrero does eventually cross the diamond, his skills at 3rd now at least give the Blue Jays potentially more roster flexibility one day.

  The well-respected John Manuel of BA compiled the Blue Jays Top 10, and here are some highlights from his evaluation of Vladdy Jr:

Guerrero does just about everything evaluators want to see in a teenage hitter. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills, to the point he seems to have been born to hit. His special hands allow him to manipulate the barrel and square up pitches of all types. He has excellent strike-zone judgment for a 17-year-old, walking nearly as often as he struck out and showing an ability to lay off breaking balls that will be further tested at higher levels. He has tremendous raw power and showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields at an advanced rate for his age. Guerrero covers the plate well and should be an above-average hitter with 30-plus homer potential down the line

   Manuel on his defence:

Defense was rarely a focus of his as an amateur, and moving to third base from outfield has prompted Guerrero to work harder on all aspects of that side of the ball. He has improved his short-area quickness and arm strength the most. If he keeps working on his defense, he should have average range. Once owner of a below-average arm, he now flirts with a plus tool. His footwork has improved as well, and he made the routine play with some reliability in his debut

  On this note, I can't help but be impressed.  Unless the Rogers Centre undergoes a massive renovation that moves the outfield walls back, this will be a team that will always need starting pitchers that induce groundballs, and they can't always afford to carry a strictly bat-first infielder if they continue to assemble that kind of rotation.

     Manuel on Guerrero's future:

His potential may not match his father’s, but he won’t shame his dad’s name as a ballplayer. He figures to reach low Class A Lansing in 2017, and he could make it hard for the Jays to keep him from getting to the big leagues by the time he’s 20.

  The biggest concern about Vladdy Jr is his body, and while he's shed some baby fat, there's still room to grow.  Still, this is an organization that transformed Roberto Osuna and Rowdy Tellez from soft-bodied types to more svelte, athletic versions of themselves.  It doesn't hurt that Mark Shapiro is putting together a state-of-the-art high performance division that will help enhance the nutrition and conditioning of the organization's players.  It will take some time, but it's easy to see Guerrero making considerable progress in his fitness and agility with the regimen the team has put him on.  Video from Lansing in early September shows that he's already shed some pounds.

   Here, for your off season viewing pleasure, is a montage of four Guerrero ABs at Bluefield's beautiful Bowen Field from this summer:

  Even in this relatively small sample size, Guerrero's strike zone judgement is readily apparent.  Even though he will be fed a steady diet of breaking balls at the higher levels of the minors, this series of ABs show that he's already seen quite a few, and is skilled at laying off of the ones outside of the strike zone.

   The loudmouth in the background, by the way, is a Bluefield institution by the name of Henry Belcher, and while his dedication is admirable, a Bluefield staffer charitably described trying to watch a game with Henry in the crowd as "incredibly annoying."

   About the only things Vladdy Jr shares with his hall-of-fame bound father is a number and exceptional bat speed.  Sr was a true five tool athlete, but one wonders what his career offensive totals may have been had he had his son's gift for pitch recognition.  

   For those who are hopeful of catching Guerrero and his Lansing Lugnuts online next year, Lansing GM Nick Grueder says that while the team is in the process of putting the infrastructure in place for live streaming Lugs' games, if may not be ready for next season. I, for one, can't wait to sit in the stands in chilly Lansing in April to get my first live glimpse at this major leaguer to be.

Blue Jays/Dunedin Spring Training Upgrades Nearing Reality

 After a couple of years of negotiations, the Blue Jays and the City of Dunedin came one step closer to completing a new spring training facility agreement to replace the one that expires next year.

 Dunedin is the only spring training home the club has ever known, a fact Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro acknowledged to residents at a public meeting held in the Florida town on Monday night.

  The main feature of the $81 million agreement, which will keep the team in Dunedin for the next quarter century once it is finalized, is a significant makeover to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium, home of the Blue Jays spring training games, and the team's High A affiliate, the Dunedin Blue Jays. FAES has been charitably described as "quaint, but outdated."

  The Blue Jays have always preferred to have their minor league complex and spring training stadium, which are currently about an 8-minute drive apart, under one roof, but recognize that space is at a premium in Dunedin.  Upgrades to the Mattick Complex will be part of the improvements, but the majority of the expenditure will be building a more fan-friendly stadium.  Those in attendance at the meeting were able to view a video of these proposed enhancements created by the architectural firm Populous, which specializes in stadium construction and renovations.  According to the Tampa Bay Times, Populous says the improvements will add to the "intensity and intimacy of the game," as well as increase stadium capacity  by 3 000 seats.

  According to one of the attendees at Monday's meeting, the improvements to FAES include a berm with popular lawn seating along the 3rd baseline, a Tiki Bar in right-center field, a playground for kids, and several breezeways to help improve stadium ventilation.  With the park sheltered somewhat from the breezes off of the Gulf, the last upgrade may help thick-skinned northerners on hot March afternoons.  A year-round Blue Jays merchandise store will also be part of the project.

  The Bobby Mattick minor league complex will be enlarged to accommodate three new fields, with a state-of-the-art training and medical facility in the middle of the complex.  This had been high on Shapiro's wish list of upgrades.  My great internet friend +baseballbetsy , who was part of the Dunedin committee, wrote a very detailed and thorough post about the new facilities and the whole process here.

  Timelines for the project are said to be very aggressive, with most of the work completed by the opening of 2019 spring training if the project is approved.  The deal has yet to be approved, and sources of financing on Dunedin's part still need to be worked out, but the Blue Jays are now that much closer to staying in their spring training home of 40 years.

 

Blue Jays, Scouting Director Part Ways

Parker (r), with Assistan GM Andrew Tinnish - Canadian Baseball photo

     Toronto Blue Jays amateur scouting director Brian Parker, according to an article in Baseball America.  National cross checker Blake Davis was also let go, according to BA.

  Parker joined the Jays as a pro scout in 2009, and took charge of the draft in 2012.  In the wake of deals with the Mets and Marlins prior to 2013 which dealt away much of the farm system's upper level depth, Parker and his staff quickly rebuilt the minor league organization, selecting players like Marcus Stroman, Matt Boyd, Kendall Graveman, and Jeff Hoffman.  Last season, with then-GM Alex Anthopoulos dealing 18 prospects over 6 months, Parker deftly re-stocked the system again.  Other players drafted by Parker and still toiling in the Blue Jays farm system included Anthony Alford, Conner Greene, Max Pentecost, Rowdy Tellez, Justin Maese, Sean Reid-Foley, Jon Harris, and 2016 draftee T.J. Zeuch.

   The Indiana State Business Management grad has spent his whole career in professional sports, starting with an internship with the Colorado Rockies in 1997.  He spent time with the NFL's Buffalo Bills in media relations, before moving to the Southwest to help eventually head up the Arizona Fall League's operations. Parker joined the Montreal Expos in the player development department in 2003, and moved with the Expos to Washington, where he rose to Director of Baseball Operations before joining the Blue Jays, where he joined his friend and former fellow Expos staffer Anthopoulos.  Under Parker, the Blue Jays were at the leading edge of amateur scouting, opting for high-risk, high-reward prospects like Alford and Stroman, players from non-traditional baseball markets like Maese, and they exploited new draft rules regarding signing bonuses to draft low-leverage college seniors like Boyd and Graveman in 2013, and used savings from those picks to persuade Tellez to forego his college commitment after most clubs felt he wouldn't sign.

   When Mark Shapiro took over the Blue Jays operations side last year, changes were expected.  He brought Ross Atkins from Cleveland with him to take over the GM job, hired Gil Kim from the Rangers to head minor league operations, and persuaded Angus Mugford to leave the IMG Academy in Florida to head up the club's new high performance department.  In addition to Anthopoulos, long-time International scouting director Ismael Cruz left the club last fall for a similar position with the Dodgers.

  What does this mean for the Blue Jays?  Likely a slight shift in philosophy, but nothing fans would notice right away.  The club has been a solid drafter and developer of prospects, and with Shapiro's past emphasis on development, not much is like to change in that regard.  Picks like J.B. Woodman and Josh Palacios this June shows that this is still an organization that covets upside.

   As for Parker, he has a solid resume, and accomplished a great deal in his four years of running the amateur scouting side.  He should land another job fairly quickly.  Shapiro garnered considerable scorn from some Blue Jays fans on social media after taking over and making a fair number of changes prior to this season, but much of that was to be expected in the wake of a regime change, and with the team in first place and the next wave of prospects ready to make an impact at the MLB level in 2017 or 2018, it's hard to argue with the results.  Sportsnet suggests that a rumour is making the rounds that Oakland assistant scouting director Michael Holmes, who was  a teammate of Atkins' in college, may be tapped to replace Parker.
 
 

On Aaron Sanchez, The Year After Effect, and Smarter Pitch Counts

Butch Dill/USA Today Sports 

   With the news that Aaron Sanchez landed a spot in the Blue Jays starting rotation has come a concern for his young arm, and the innings that he may have to pitch as a starter this year.

   Blue Jays bloggers and media types alike have trotted out rules-of-thumb like the Year After Effect (sometimes mistakenly termed the Verducci effect) to explain how the Blue Jays will determine how many innings Sanchez, whose season high to this point is just over 130, will throw this season. Others suggest that Sanchez will be skipped at various times this year, some say that he will spend time in the bullpen in order to protect his young arm, and a few have even gone as far as to say that he will be shut down, a la Stephen Strasburg, when he reaches his supposed innings limit.

  All of this speculation ignores a basic fact - measures such as the Year After Effect, innings limits, and even to some extent simple pitch counts are very outdated means of monitoring a young arm. Many significant new advances have taken place over the past decade.

   One thing is certain:  the risk of a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament, which can usually only be corrected by Tommy John surgery (the Jays tried rehab and Platelet-Rich Therapy with Roberto Osuna in 2013, with limited results, before submitting to Tommy John), drops significantly after 25 years of age, meaning that Sanchez is still in his prime years of risk.  Whatever measure the Blue Jays use, they will be carefully protecting him for at least a few more seasons.

   President Mark Shapiro as quietly been going about constructing a model organization in terms of player training and development since taking over last fall.  He has established the Blue Jays own version of a Centre for High Performance, hiring experts in strength and conditioning, nutrition, physiotherapy, and sport psychology to staff it.  As the team negotiates with the City of Dunedin on a new spring training agreement, a new, state-of-the-art training facility is likely a crucial part of those talks.  High Performance Centres are nothing new in the world of sport, but they are somewhat revolutionary in the world of baseball, and this no doubt has been a dream of the forward-thinking Shapiro for some time, but was not something his budget-conscious previous employer was willing to fund.

 No doubt part of the mandate for this new facet of the organization is injury prevention - something which is still just starting to gain traction in baseball, whose approach to arm injuries up to this point has been mostly restorative.  And the approaches they will use go far beyond the Year After Effect.

  The YAE has gotten a bit of a bad rap, but it, at least, was an attempt to make a systematic study of why UCLs were tearing.  The underlying assumption of it, as well as regular pitch counts, is that all innings and all pitches are created equal - and they're not.  A three-up, three-down, 8 pitch inning is not the same as one that approaches 30 (the magic number for Blue Jays pitching prospects - their day is over if they reach that limit in any inning), and a pitch with no runners on in a scoreless game in the 2nd is not the same in terms of leverage as one thrown with runners in scoring position in the 6th.  Pitcher fatigue is the culprit when it comes to injuries - the point at which a pitcher's mechanics become shoddy because he's tiring.  The out of sync mechanics that happen when a pitcher becomes tired are usually the cause of injury.

 But there are far more effective means of determining when a pitcher is becoming tired.  Smart Pitch Counts take into account the type of pitch and situation its thrown in, and come up with a score to determine pitcher fatigue.  Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus introduced the concept of Pitcher Abuse Points almost 20 years ago, and has reviewed and revised the formula to determine when a pitcher might be fatigued to the point of risking severe injury.

 Motus, which describes itself as "The Global Leader in Biomechanics for Sports Injury Prevention and Performance Analysis" has developed a compression sleeve with a sensor inside of it which can track the motion of a pitcher's arm as he delivers a pitch.  Many teams, including the Blue Jays, have been using it for that past few seasons.  The data generated by the sensor can be tracked by an iPhone app, but it sounds like the device is still a work in progress.  It's more than likely that some MLB teams have invested in some deeper proprietary analysis with this device.

 One thing seems to be unanimous throughout the baseball community:  poor mechanics are often the cause of pitcher injury.  Add to that a growing understanding of how to properly train and develop a pitcher, and you have the growth of training companies like Driveline Baseball, which uses weighted ball training and super slow motion video analysis to both build velocity and protect the arm through increased strength. Driveline uses a four step method to train pitchers, including training blocks dedicated to building arm strength, improving range of motion and force development, and "reorganizing proprioception" (basically, building what some refer to as muscle memory).  They are on the cutting edge of pitching research, but they are still virtually pioneers in the baseball world at the moment.

   That Sanchez was being considered for the bullpen was understandable, given his performance there, and the toll starting appeared to have taken on him last year.  As August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs has pointed out, Sanchez is a different pitcher this spring.  Not only has he started to transform his body (I'm impressed with the work he's done, but I am a bit of a cynic - it usually takes, about a year for a new training regimen to start showing significant results for elite athletes, not a three month off-season), but he's vastly improved his control - he's walked just 3 of the 78 hitters he's faced this spring.  Even with the presence of vet Gavin Floyd, Sanchez should have easily been in the mix for a starting job.  He's been one of the best pitchers in Florida this spring.  Perhaps the biggest factor has been improved command of his secondary pitches.  The club had to balance what was best for both the team this year and in the future, but this was absolutely the right move.  The Blue Jays have been accused in the past of babying their top young arms, but starting two years ago, they became very aggressive with their promotions.  There is always a fine line to be walked between challenging a young player and putting him a place where he's most likely to be successful, but Sanchez will never learn how to turn over a lineup from the back end of the bullpen.

   What does this all mean for Aaron Sanchez?  It's hard to say for certain, but the Blue Jays have likely been using technology to monitor his mechanics, in addition to the preventative work he did with his good buddy Marcus Stroman this off season.  As far as what the team's plan is for Sanchez, it's safe to say that the detail-oriented Shapiro has one in place.  It may involve skipping turns in the rotation, although it's hard to see him spend shuttling between the bullpen and the rotation this year - not with veteran swingman Jesse Chavez on the staff.  Manager John Gibbons did suggest to reporters that Sanchez will not spend the entire season as a starter, but did say that we wouldn't see a Strasburg-like shutdown of him, telling reporters “It’s not one of those things where he’s not going to pitch this year, like happened in another place a few years ago.”  If the plan is to move Sanchez to the bullpen, the stress that can be caused my warming up multiple times, and pitching in high leverage situations has to be considered.  Given the depth the Blue Jays have in the bullpen compared to a year ago (if everyone stays healthy), Sanchez may not need to make as much of a contribution as he did last year.
  Whatever the plan is for Sanchez, it will not be based just on pitch counts or innings.  GM Ross Atkins told the media that the new High-Performance division will play a large part in determining direction for Sanchez:

“It’s one thing for a general manager or a pitching coach to come up with a framework on how to monitor fatigue levels, It’s another thing for an expert in sports science to come up with a framework to measure that.”

   What will this new department use to determine when the risk of injury to Sanchez exceeds his value to the rotation?  Probably a combination of metrics - Smart Pitch counts, video analysis, and data from a Motus-like measuring device, as well as analytics involving pitch velocity and movement, as well as input from key personnel.

Dunedin and the Blue Jays: What Does the Future Hold?

 

“There are realities that may be charming about our current situation, but that charm is not going to bring wins, So we need to be in a situation where we modernize our facility and have the ability to ingrain a culture that’s player focused and player centered. They understand that. They’ve been very receptive, and we’re going to have to work hard and work together to get that done, but I’m optimistic that will happen.”   Mark Shapiro

   Nestled in a quiet section of Dunedin, a sleepy yet quaint Florida City of 36 000 on Florida's Gulf Coast, the Blue Jays spring training home of Florida Auto Exchange Stadium is indeed charming in many ways.  Spanish moss hangs languidly from trees along the streets surrounding the ballpark, which is just two blocks from Florida's intercoastal waterway, separating the mainland from the sandy tourist beaches of the barrier islands. FAES sits on the site of Grant Field, the Blue Jays original Florida home, dating back to their birth in 1977.
   Above all else, however, the stadium is outdated.

   With incoming Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro diligently going about building a state of the art organization when it comes to developing players in an integrated, scientific approach, FAES is no longer at that level, and with the Blue Jays agreement with Dunedin coming to an end in 2017, the clock is ticking.  Shapiro has expressed a preference for a "365-day home," which would provide:

“The tools that allow players to both be on the field more frequently and to allow them to recover more effectively, to train in bigger volumes. You don’t want them to be crowded."

 FAES has a number of strikes against it as an integrated spring training complex. For starters, the park is enclosed on all sides by a library to the south, and an elementary school to the east.  There's only room for the stadium and a practice field beside it.  A four field minor league complex is about a ten-minute drive away, while the trend for other teams is to house everything in one location, like the Phillies complex in Clearwater, about a half hour away:

     

   The current stadium site has little room for expansion.  The Jays did revamp the practice field, but the school and the library aren't going anywhere (although a friend close to the situation said the Librarian would be glad if they tore the library down, and built a more up to date one somewhere else).  The minor league fields are similarly land-locked, and there's precious little available space to start from scratch and build something new.  Then, there's the stadium itself.  At just over a quarter century of age, you wouldn't think its time is up, but with a spate of new parks built with the renaissance of the minor leagues in the early 90s, FAES is now one of the older parks in the minors. It has little parking space, limited concessions, and I've been told that on busy dates, when all the appliances are turned on, circuits blow routinely.  There are no luxury suites, the washrooms are on the small side, and there are few other amenities. Compared to a fan-friendly park like Bright House Field (with its tiki bar in left field), FAES pales considerably

   The funding question also comes into play.  The Jays turned down money from the State when they backed away from joining the Astros in a new shared complex in Palm Beach Garden on the Atlantic Coast of Florida.  Dunedin Mayor Julie Ward Bujalski has suggested that the city might be able to access the tax the state charges on hotel rooms (the "heads and beds" tax), which for Piniellas County is 12% - not an unsubstantial source of revenue on tourists - anyone trying to book a hotel in Clearwater Beach this month can vouch for that.  The State of Florida has offered money to construct other minor league complexes, and the City no doubt hopes to be in line for some funding, which would be said to be in the $15 million range.  

   The Blue Jays, for their part, have been relatively quiet on the subject.  Former President Paul Beeston made all the right noises about keeping the team in town, while quietly trying to work out a deal to move in with the Astros.  That source I mentioned earlier said that the city had offered to build a dormitory to house players at the minor league complex, but the team responded that they're not in the hotel business.  

  

   Shapiro oversaw the relocation of the Indians from nearby Winter Haven's Chain of Links Park in 2008 for Arizona.  Shaprio's comment at the time was revealing:

Gracious in goodbye, Indians General Manager Mark Shapiro said the club appreciated the convenience of Florida and Winter Haven's support through the years. But what the team needs neither Winter Haven nor any other city in Florida was willing to provide: a state-of-the-art complex where players train, improve and mend year-round.  What intimate Chain of Lakes, built for the Red Sox in 1966, offers in nostalgia and charm, it lacks in what Shapiro often describes as "first-division resources."

    After 15 years in Winter Haven, the Indians left Florida (where they had trained since World War II) for a new, $76 million state-of-the-art facility in Goodyear, which they share with the Reds. Unlike the current situation with Dunedin, it seems that relations between the two sides had seriously deteriorated.
 
   Could the Blue Jays similarly bolt for the desert?   It seems possible.  At the same time, there is more than a small amount of history between the team and Dunedin, the only spring training home the team has ever known.  Then there's the matter of distance:  Toronto to Tampa non-stop is just under three hours; Toronto to Phoenix is about five.  And the cost per return flight is about $400 more.  Certainly, this will not stop the most diehard and affluent of Blue Jays fans, but it will significantly limit access to their favourite team during March.  Shapiro took a bit of a beating this off-season from fans and some corners of the Toronto media, and while on the surface he seems oblivious to it, he has to know that such a move, while helping to give the team a competitive advantage, would hurt the Blue Jays brand at the same time.
   And then there is the economic impact, estimated to be at around $80 million for the Dunedin area, which more than justifies the $50 million price tag of a new facility to Mayor Ward Bujalski.

  For their part, the Blue Jays have said little aside from Shapiro's comments to reporters at the outset of spring training.  Rumoured that they may be looking at partnering with the Braves, who are looking to leave their home at Disney's Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando, Shapiro claimed:

“Right now we’re trying to get a deal done with Dunedin. If it gets to a point where we’re searching, that search will be wide. We’d cast a net everywhere there would be and we’d look at all alternatives, but as of right now I think our best chance to get a deal done here is to focus on getting a deal done, singularly, and not to be out there simultaneously looking for alternatives.”

   Complicating matters somewhat is that City Manager Rob DiSpirito, who headed talks with the Blue Jays on Dunedin's behalf, resigned in January after the City Commission unsuccessfully tried to fire him.
   Word came from Jeff Blair today that he expects the Jays to have a deal in place with Dunedin by the end of the season.  Both sides appear to agree that upgrading the stadium site to become the focal point of this training and rehabilitation center, but there does appear to be a willingness to modernize the minor league complex, and create a  "first-division resource."
   The political will appears to be there on the part of the City, and the Jays seem to be content to stay if facilities to their liking are built - the questions now become how much will each side be willing to pay, and where will the City come up with the funding?

Blue Jays Quietly Building a Strong Organization

Gil Kim
National Post photo

   A Major League Baseball team's off-field personnel roster encompasses many people, with a wide variety of skills and backgrounds.  There are those who specialize in scouting, while others have expertise in instructing and developing minor leaguers, and more and more teams are building analytics departments. If each of those groups pull on their oars in their own direction, the result for the organization will be chaos, and the team will be sailing in circles on second division seas for years.  It takes a concerted effort for all of these employees to be on the same page, and to work toward a common goal.

   Mark Shapiro has taken more than his fair share of heat since he took over as President at the end of the season, effectively becoming the face of the franchise.  A slumbering fan base had been re-energized, and thousands more lapsed fans scrambled aboard the Blue Jays band wagon, but the elation of October baseball turned to the November blues for many when GM Alex Anthopoulos, opted not to accept a new contract when his expired at the end of October, and free agent David Price, who would have been a difficult sign even if AA had remained with the organization, bolted for the Red Sox.

    AA was a tough act for Shapiro to follow in the eyes of many.  Anthopoulos was the (kind of) local boy who made good, a guy who worked his way up from interning the Expos mail room to running the nation's baseball team.  And where Anthopoulos was effusive (if not evasive) with the media, Shapiro is concise, and not afraid to be blunt - his comment that a grass playing surface at the Rogers Centre was not a priority may have been correct, but it sure did not play well with some.  To his credit, Shapiro did not tiptoe around the issue, however, or offer vague promises somewhere down the road.  Still, this rankled with some fans, who have turned Shapiro their own personal Rogers-bashing pinata.


   So, while fans and the media may be complaining about the failure to sign Price, or any other remaining free agents, and the fact that departing President Paul Beeston's warm and fuzzy assurance about grass coming to the Dome by 2017 seem to ignore the major engineering issues that will come with that project, Shapiro has been quietly revamping the organization, particularly the player development side.

   His first and most notable hiring was Ross Atkins, his VP of Player Personnel in Cleveland, who was brought over to fill the same role in Toronto.  Despite many fans' misgivings about the new guy bringing along one of his own to run the team, Atkins' story is one of shrewdness and determination.   Atkins has an impressive record as a drafter and developer of talent, with the Indians now boasting one of the deepest farm systems in baseball.  While the Blue Jays pennant run filled the Rogers Centre (and Rogers' coffers) unlike at any time since they took ownership of the Jays over a decade ago, the heavy toll it took in terms of prospects clearly did not set well with the corporation - hiring Atkins is proof that this is a team that wants to work towards being a model of player development.

  Atkins' hiring was just the first of several for the Blue Jays.  Just before Christmas, the team announced that analyst Joe Sheehan was promoted to Director of Analytics, taking over a newly-created department.  The Blue Jays, under Anthopoulos, under-utilized Sheehan, and lost several promising younger analysts and interns when they proved reluctant to use their data interpreting skills for much more than figuring out if a player would be a good fit in the clubhouse.  The Indians, of course, with their proprietary baseball information system DiamondView, were pioneers in developing the analytical side of the game.  Shapiro protegee Neal Huntington married the best of traditional and analytical methods shortly after taking over as GM of the Pirates, and the club was named organization of the year by Baseball America for its ability to find value in players, and new methods of playing the game.  Travis Sawchik's excellent Big Data Baseball detailed how the Pirates were able to blend analytics and traditional baseball methods seamlessly.


  Early in the New Year, the Blue Jays announced the hiring of Angus Mugford as the head of their new High Performance division, responsible for the mental and physical development of all Blue Jays players.  Mugford has an impressive resume, having worked as a sports psychologist at the famed IMG Academy in Florida. His plan is to expand the department, hiring another psychologist, and experts in nutrition and sport science. The whole performance coach issue is not new to the Jays - hitting guru Steve Springer has done an excellent job working with Jays prospects on the mental side of the game, but the hiring of Mugford is a huge investment in the players in the organization, and takes the sport science angle to a higher level.

   The hirings continued last week when the Blue Jays hired world-travelling Gil Kim from the Rangers (who he was scouting for) to become their first-ever Director of Player Development, overseeing the club's minor league operations.  Kim has extensive playing experience from time spent in the Netherlands, China, Spain, and Venezuela, soaking up as much baseball knowledge as he could at each stop.  Like Atkins, Gil speaks Spanish, and has the ability to develop a rapport with Latin players, which gives an indication about where the team may be headed as far as scouting is concerned.  The club did lose Ismael Cruz to the Dodgers after the season ended, and while they may decide to promote his replacement from within, the Indians and Director of Latin American operations Ramon Pena parted ways last week, and it may be just a matter of time before he's introduced in that role with the Blue Jays.

   The most recent hiring this past weekend was Mike Murov in yet another newly created post, that of Baseball Operations Director.  Murov had been with the Red Sox since 2010, and will be responsible for creating and implementing decision-making processes, according to a press release. He will help in the preparation of financial, statistical, and contractual information, coordinating contract negotiation, and preparing for arbitration hearings.  One of this last duties with the Red Sox was to help put together a study on Price prior to his signing with Boston.

  So, looking from a glance, the Blue Jays have hired an expert that will develop the conditioning, nutrition, and psychological aspects of their players, as well as a co-ordinator of the minors who has a background in working with Latin players, expanded their analytics department, and have hired a specialist in contract negotiations.   This is another sign that the Shapiro regime is in things for the long term, and while Blue Jays fans may be more concerned about the present more than the future, the organization does appear to be building a template to gain a competitive advantage for years to come.   A MLB front office is a complicated, many-headed beast, and Shapiro is at least attempting to tame that monster, and it's unlikely that he's done just yet.

   For further reading on the analytics-driven growth of MLB front offices, here is an excellent look at that trend by Fangraphs' Dave Cameron.  The Blue Jays appear to be headed in the direction of what Cameron calls a "classically hierarchical (vertical) structure."