Danny Jansen: Blue Jays Catcher of the Future

Dunedin Blue Jays photo

      Dunedin Blue Jays Catcher Danny Jansen hit a pair of Home Runs in the same inning on Sunday, and announced his arrival as the Blue Jays Catcher of the Future.

  The two long balls were part of a 4-5, 11 total bases day at the plate for the Appleton, WI native, who leads the Florida State League in hitting with a .394 average, and is in the top five in most offensive categories.  More impressively, he puts the ball in play,  (8.8% K rate this year), and his 25% line drive rate shows evidence of hard contact.  It's a small sample size, but a viewer of Dunedin's three game series against the Pirates' Bradenton affiliate this weekend saw a lot of hard-hit balls off of Jansen's bat.  His power is mostly to left, but Jansen uses the whole field.

   This breakout season has been a long time coming for the 2013 16th rounder, who was viewed by many as a steal in the Alex Anthopoulos/Blake Parker look-for-prospects-in-non-traditional-places era.  Jansen had a decent season at the plate at short-season Bluefield in 2014 (.282/.390/.484 in 38 games), but his career thus far has been marked by an inability to stay healthy.  He has missed major chunks of time in every pro season (2014 - knee injury, 2015- broken Catching hand, 2016 hamate bone removal), but his performance last fall in the Arizona Fall League (where he held his own against advanced competition) and so far this year indicates that he's making up for lost development time in a hurry.

  And lest you think Jansen is a bat-first player, it's his skills behind the plate that have won him accolades at every stop in his career.  The 6'3"/225 Jansen presents a big target for pitchers, but he covers the lower half of the strike zone extremely well, which is important for hurlers who rely on the two-seamer that he has caught like Sean Reid-Foley, Conner Greene, and TJ Zeuch.  Jansen is a superior blocker of balls in the dirt, and he has long been an excellent framer of pitches.   His ability to work with pitchers and his leadership skills have also been lauded for some time now.  Jansen has a strong, accurate arm - his infielders have to be on their toes when a runner attempts to steal, because Jansen's throw will arrive in a hurry and on the spot.

   His breakout year with the bat can be partially explained by finally being healthy and getting consistent reps, and by new sport glasses that he donned last fall:

I started wearing them after the season last year into the fall. They are fantastic I was never good at putting eye drops in my eyes and I tried contacts but they weren't for me, so I stuck with the glasses.

  Jansen admits that the new eyewear has helped him on both sides of the ball this year.  "They have helped big time," he said.  "I can see spin much better, helping me behind the plate as well."

   Jansen has never found himself near most Blue Jays Top 10 prospects during his career, which is mostly attributable to his truncated service time.  And entering this season, he was only the third-ranked Blue Jays Catching prospect, behind the recently-acquired Reese McGuire, and 2014 1st rounder Max Pentecost, who has had injury problems of his own - Pentecost just resumed Catching duties last week, donning his mask for the first time in almost three years, sharing time behind the plate with Jansen (Jansen's big day at the plate came while he was DHing).  Jansen has shown a better bat this year than McGuire, and is far ahead of Pentecost in terms of his defensive development.  In a way, he combines the best of both - Pentecost's skills at the plate, and McGuire's behind it.

   The trick for Jansen, of course, is to stay healthy and in the lineup for a prolonged period of time.  He is repeating Dunedin this year after suiting up for only 54 games last year, and 46 (with Lansing) the year before.  With the glove-first McGuire ensconsed above him in New Hampshire despite a .216/.311/.373 line so far, and Pentecost putting up numbers almost comparable to Jansen's so far (.344/.368/.622) but unable to assume full-time Catching duties, the Blue Jays are likely going to be content with keeping Jansen healthy and have his bat in the Dunedin order on a daily basis.  Sharing time behind the plate with Pentecost should do a great deal to help keep him on the field.

   McGuire may never hit enough to be more than an MLB back up, and the possibility of Pentecost moving off the position still has to be considered high.  Jansen has the skills and the build to handle a major league pitching staff, and this year he has finally shown that while he still has yet to prove that he could be a middle-of-the-order bat, he has started to demonstrate that he can handle a bat just the same.  With Russell Martin's contract with two years to run beyond this campaign, there's every chance we see Jansen in a Blue Jays uniform at some point in 2019 or the following year.

Maxed Pentecost?

      Word came down from Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith that Max Pentecost, the club's second first round pick last June, had a second procedure performed on his throwing shoulder this week.
He referred to the procedure as a "clean out" of the shoulder joint, performed by arthroscopic surgery.
Nicholson-Smith says the same operation was performed in October,

   I have to admit to being a little confused about the whole situation.  According to multiple reports last fall, Pentecost had surgery to repair a torn labrum, which is a much more extensive, invasive and delicate procedure.  With an arthroscope, the scope is inserted through an incision to examine the affected area, and make any necessary repairs.  Recovery from a torn labrum can take up to a year, depending on the extent of the tear.  The recovery time for a scope is much shorter - Pentecost can start throwing in May.  Reliever John Stilson underwent labrum surgery last August (his second such operation), and likely won't be ready to start throwing until the end of spring training at the earliest.

   Which one was it?   Nicholson-Smith claims the October surgery was a scope.  The always-excellent Alexis Brudnicki of the Canadian Baseball Network, Baseball America, and several other places, reported that it was a partial tear shortly after the first surgery. To me, it's not clear.

   Either way, there's really no reason to panic.  With the acquisition of Russell Martin, Pentecost's development has been pushed back anyway, and even though he was hurting in his short audition with Vancouver behind the plate last year, sources indicate that his defensive skills need some work.
Scouts have generally regarded him as having good pop time, but he needs further tutoring and refinement of his footwork, pitch blocking, and game-calling skills. His bat and base-running ability will always be his most prominent tools, but his work behind the plate needs upgrading before he's ready for prime time.  In a way, this injury buys him more development time.

   It's not unusual for baseball players to need their elbows and/or shoulders cleaned up.  The violent and unnatural action that is throwing a baseball is bound to lead to fibre and bone detritus floating around in those joints.  Daniel Norris had bone chips removed from his throwing elbow after last season, as did prospect Matt Boyd.  I don't want to say that it's routine, but the success rate is pretty high.

  There are some who are already calling Pentecost damaged goods.  He did wear down after a long college season last summer, and had a number of dings, including his shoulder, that necessitated an early shutdown and return to Florida.  His timetable for making the major leagues, to me, was always 2-3 years away in the best of scenarios.  It's hard for any prospect to make the leap from college ball to the majors right away, and catching may be one of the biggest leaps of all.  The Blue Jays aren't planning on having Pentecost in the lineup this year, nor the next.  If this procedure was a scope, as Nicholson-Smith says, there's not a lot to worry about.  Pentecost may be able to DH early this year, although his recovery time will probably cut into how many plate appearances he can accumulate.
The most likely path for him this year is to stay in Florida for extended spring training for some or all of April, and then be assigned to Dunedin of the Florida State League.

  Lastly, as I am not a medical doctor (although I have a fair amount of first-hand surgical experience, which, unfortunately, I was not awake for), my medical advice and knowledge is suspect, so here is a good resource on all things related to shoulder injuries and their treatment.  

5 Sleeper Prospects

Amazon photo

   The term "Sleeper" as applied to a prospect is a bit of a misnomer, as it suggests that a player has latent talent that is just waiting to be woken up.  In our experience, prospects don't develop at the same rate, so when a player has a breakout season, it's often more because they have figured something out (new release point, repeating delivery consistently, a new grip on their four-seamer, how to recognize breaking pitches better, etc), or have seen a commitment to training (proper fitness, nutrition, sleep, and specific skill work) start to pay off.  The point is that the breakout came as a result of the player actively seeking to unlock their ability - the term "Sleeper," again suggests a passive process, when the result is anything but.

  In the spirit of our last post, which looked at five Blue Jays prospects who we considered, but ultimately decided against including in our Top 20 Prospect list, here are 5 more who we may have overlooked, but could make impressive gains next year if the stars align and all goes well for them. They may be "Sleepers," in the sense that they really haven't broken through into the spotlight yet, but their skill level and athleticism suggest they could:

BDT Photo

Lane Thomas IF/OF    
   The Blue Jays took the Tennessee HS product in the 5th round of last June's draft.  Thomas has the athleticism the team prefers in a draft pick, and has a skill set that is described as well rounded.  A plus runner, there were some thoughts that he could develop into a premium centrefielder, but reports on his work there are mixed.  There is thought that his agility and arm strength is better suited to SS or 3B.
   Thomas started the year in the GCL, and was elevated to Bluefield for the final month of the season.  Thomas' development took off in the Appy League, and he hit .323/.384/.431 at the higher level.  Here's what Baseball America's Clint Longenecker had to say about him:

 
    Lane Thomas is an exciting player that the Bluefield staff praised. He got time at third base this summer, an interesting development because he has an above-average arm. He ran well but was not a true burner in center field, where he played most as an amateur. He plays the game hard and has natural aptitude for the game. He will likely see some time at Bluefield or Vancouver next summer, given the Blue Jays history with recent high school draftees, and will absolutely be                                                                                                 someone who could factor onto the (top prospect)                                                                                                      list.

   In Thomas' case, it's mostly sample size that has kept him out of consideration for one of our top prospect slots.  That may not be the case after 2015.

Matt Boyd LHP
   Boyd was looking like a lock for our Top 20 in April, when he had a better month than Daniel Norris and Kendall Graveman.
   The Jays' 6th round pick out of Oregon State last year, Boyd was promoted to AA after giving up only one earned run over his first 5 starts this year with Dunedin, covering 31 innings.  Over that time, he surrendered only 18 hits, walked 5, and struck out 37, including 12 in his final start.

Rocektsports.com 

   Things did not go as well for Boyd in AA.  Boyd hurt his foot shortly after the promotion, and he admits that he failed to repeat his delivery consistently after it had healed, and the more experienced Eastern League hitters barreled him up often in 2 of his first 3 starts.  Boyd seemed to be figuring things out when he was roughed up in a start at the end of May, and was sent back to Dunedin.
   He pitched reasonably well for Dunedin in June, and found himself back in AA by July as a result of some injury issues and roster moves higher in the organization, striking out 9 in his first start, but was back in Dunedin to finish the season.  Boyd was lit up in his last couple of starts with the D-Jays, and we have to wonder if the almost 280 innings (he helped OSU get to the College World Series in 2013) he has logged between his senior year of college and first two years of pro ball (a span of about 18 months) have taken their toll.
   Boyd was a reliever in his first three years of college, and with his low three quarters arm slot was tough on lefthanded hitters.  He raised his arm slot and was sent to the OSU starting rotation for his senior year, and had a fantastic season.  Boyd sits between 90 and 92 with his fastball, and has touched 94.  He doesn't have one outstanding pitch, but throws all four of his pitches well. He projects as a back of the rotation starter.
   If the club was to consider moving Boyd into a relief role, he might rocket through the system quickly.
   
Taylor Cole RHP

   It's hard not to be a fan of this guy.  At 25, he was old for High A ball this year.  A two-year missionary commitment during his days at Brigham Young (in Toronto, of all places) meant that the righthander didn't debut in pro ball until he was 22.

Milb.com

   Cole has a plus fastball, and he trusted it more this year, and led the minor leagues in strikeouts with 181, as a result. Paired with a solid change up and a vastly improved slider,  BA named him their top Fringe Prospect of the Year, and while that's something of a dubious honour (he wasn't named a Top 20 Florida State League prospect), it's evidence that the scouting community at least took notice of his year.
   Cole made a pair of starts for New Hampshire in early August, and had command issues in both.  Returned to Dunedin for the rest of the year. he seemed to wear down like Boyd did, and wasn't effective in the FSL playoffs.
   It's very hard to see Cole as a major league starter, but his 11.9K/9 this year is really hard to ignore.  He could become another one of those bullpen power arms with his fastball/change combo.  The graph below indicates a lot of swing and misses and weak contact:

MLBFarm.com 

Jesus Tinoco RHP
    He has yet to put up the numbers to match his talent, but Tinoco is dripping with potential.
Here's what BA's Longenecker had to say about him:

Milb.com

  Jesus Tinoco has a real chance to emerge with continued development, both physically and mentally. He has youth (19), a great body, the fastball (velo and life) as a foundation for his prospect status. He can really sink the baseball. His combination of fastball velocity and heavy sink reminded some of former Blue Jay farmhand Henderson Alvarez, who has the 7th highest GB rate among MLB starters. His changeup is presently his best secondary offering and his curveball shows 12-6 tilt at its best, though it is inconsistent. Tinoco will need to improve his lower half in his delivery because he often collapses his front leg and falls off to the first base side, causing him to not get on top of his pitches. But he has the raw materials to emerge. Keep your eye on Tinoco.

   We talked to Danny Jansen, who caught Tinoco at Bluefield this year, and he said Tinoco was dominant at times, and could be tough to hit when his sinker was on.  When he's on, Tinoco induces twice as much groundball contact as he does the flyball variety.  When he's not, he tends to catch too much of the strike zone and gets hit.  Tinoco won't turn 20 until the first month of full season ball next year, but he's already a veteran of three minor league seasons, two of them stateside.  It still is hard to determine his ceiling, but he has the makings of                                                                                                 yet another power arm.


 Clinton Hollon, RHP
   We admittedly are going far, far out on a limb here, or maybe you haven't noticed our preference for projection.
  Hollon, a 2nd round pick in 2013, saw his draft stock slip after a drop in velo caused by elbow soreness before his senior year of high school.  He had regularly hit the mid-90s as a sophomore.  The Blue Jays knew of his elbow troubles, but couldn't ignore his potential.   Hollon has been limited to 17 innings as a pro, and underwent Tommy John surgery in May.
   Much has been made of Hollon's max effort delivery, and there's little doubt that the Blue Jays will work to correct that.  Prior to his injury, his slider was graded as a plus pitch, and his change was average.  If he can find his former velocity and improve his mechanics, Hollon could emerge as one of the steals of his draft year.  He would not be the first pitcher to undergo this sort of transformation with the Blue Jay organization.
   He won't be returning to game action until May, and even then that will be likely at Extended.  The good folks of Vancouver may get to see another electric arm in him this summer.


   We acknowledge that there are other names that could have been considered for this list.  LHPs Jake Brentz and Grayson Huffman are part of an impressive pool of arms in the lower levels of the system, and may move quickly with added experience.  And Andy Burns has dropped off of our radar a bit this season, but he had an impressive second half with New Hampshire, and could easily find himself in a super utility role with the big club later this year or next.  Josh Almonte had a banner year at Bluefield, and could press for a spot on Lansing's roster this spring.  The signing of Russell Martin has given the organization's catching prospects more time to develop, but it likely hurts AJ Jimenez's chances of a spot on the major league roster, which is unfortunate, because we really like his work behind the plate.  Shortstop Yeltsin Gudino made his stateside debut this summer, and was the 7th youngest player in the GCL, which showed in his struggles at the plate, but there is still plenty of upside to him.
   But we have to draw the line somewhere, or at least come up with a Top 50 Prospects list if we can't.
   Over half of its talent is below full season ball, but there is a lot to be optimistic about with this farm system.

What Does the Russell Martin Signing Mean for Blue Jays Milb Catchers?

    The signing of free agent catcher Russell Martin has been equally lauded and panned across print, online and electronic media.
   While we can argue with the economics of the deal, it was more a reflection of where the market is going, and that in baseball, you are paid more often for what you have done, as opposed to what you might do in the future.
   And what Russell might do in the future is to upgrade the position for the Jays, possibly offer some roster flexibility, and give their minor league receivers more time to develop.

   We acknowledge that Russell is on the downside of his career - only 86 men have caught more games than Russell's 1121.  Just the same, he has been termed one of the top five framers of pitches over the period 2007-2011, and has justifiably gained a reputation as a good handler of young pitchers.  With Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison already in the starting rotation, and Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris on the verge of joining it, that had to be an important consideration for the club.

   While his production may be declining, Martin did have his best season at the plate last year (albeit it in only 460 PAs) since 2008.  Just the same, he likely won't match the offensive output of incumbent Dionner Navarro.
   What Martin's presence on the roster does do is give the Blue Jays a chance to either use the switch-hitting Navarro in a variety of spots, including First Base, DH, and spelling Martin (and acting as injury insurance).  Or, it may give the club an opportunity to mull over trade offers for Navarro to shore up other areas of the club, in which case a spot might open up on the roster for AJ Jimenez, who would likely make a good back up to Martin while he gains MLB experience.

   The signing also buys some added development time for Jimenez and the other catching prospects in the Blue Jays system.  The concern all along for Jimenez is his bat, and given his injury issues over the past two seasons, he could still benefit from added exposure to Triple A pitching.
   Injuries and a long collegiate season limited 2014 first round pick Max Pentecost to only 72 innings behind the plate this season.  Shoulder surgery in October will delay his 2015 debut until likely some time in May.  There was thought that Pentecost could be in the major by 2016, and while that may still happen, there isn't the urgency to rush him now that Martin is under contract.
   Danny Jansen, who would be next in line in terms of prospects, will now likely get the chance to hone his game-calling and offensive skills for a full season at Lansing, and not be rushed up the ladder.

   This is not to say, of course, that Martin is a long-term solution.  The odds of him still being a regular and productive player at the MLB level in five years would have to be long.  And given that catching depth is still one of the weaker lengths in the organizational chain, it still needs to be addressed.  Just the same, signing Martin bolsters both the major league club and the minor league organization.