What to Expect From Mike Ohlman

 
 

  The Blue Jays came to terms with free agent minor league C Mike Ohlman last week.
The lanky (6'5", 240) North Carolinian played travel ball with Will Myers, and was a highly regarded prep player.  The Orioles drafted him in the 11th round in 2009 (he had committed to Miami), and signed him to above slot ($995K) money.  There were concerns about his long term future behind the plate, however, as Baseball America noted in their draft report:

 He's tall for a catcher at 6-foot-4, and his slender 200-pound body doesn't seem suited to the position for the long-term, scouts worry. But he has shown excellent athletic ability, and he should be able to remain a catcher at least through college. He has excellent arm strength, but his receiving skills are less advanced than his Florida prep rivals. He has improved his skills behind the plate but has a long way to go in terms of blocking, framing pitches and learning other nuances behind the plate.

   Still, Baltimore added him to their 40-man roster, and he was the O's 15th-ranked prospect after his first pro season, seeming to be headed toward bigger things.  His career took a step backward in 2012, when he missed time due to a spring training car accident, and a second positive test for a recreational drug.  While his receiving skills were still in question, his bat was developing, and he led the Carolina League in hitting in 2013.  Baltimore reportedly like his game-calling skills, but there were still huge concerns about his blocking skills, and by 2014 he was spending time at 1st Base, bringing comparisons to another O's draft pick who was selected as a Catcher, but was eventually moved off the position by the name of Jayson Werth.
   When Ohlman struggled in his first year of AA, the Orioles soured on him as a long-term prospect, and he was DFA'd in January of 2015.  Picked up by the Cardinals, he showed some improvement behind the plate under the tutelage of Cardinals Manager Mike Matheny, a former Gold Glove-winning tall Catcher himself, but his projection had changed to MLB backup.
   In his 8th pro season, he began the year at AA, and finished with AAA, establishing himself as Memphis' everyday Catcher over the last month of the season.  His work with the bat was decent (.280/.333/.464 in 54 games) with Memphis, so I thought I would take a look at some of his body of work this summer.
   Admittedly, watching several innings spread over four games does not give the whole picture, but some aspects of Ohlman's game behind the plate became evident:
    -he is a decent blocker of pitches in the dirt, but his sheer size means that unfolding his large frame costs him some agility, and he takes a split second longer to get to balls that bounce off to the side;
    -his larger size means that pitch framing can be something of a challenge:  while he can get to low pitches in front of him, he has trouble positioning himself in a manner than can help him get extra strikes with just a slight bit of movement.  This is not illusory - Hardball Times has looked into the matter.
   -he does appear to be a good pitch caller and handler of pitchers.  Working with one of the youngest pitching staffs in the Pacific Coast League, he seemed to have a calming influence on struggling starters.
   -pop ups around home plate can be a bit of an adventure for Ohlman.  He had trouble tracking several of them.
   -despite an above average arm, he struggled throwing out base stealers in AAA.  This could be owing to his pitchers' inability to keep runners close, but he skipped throws to 2nd, and generally had trouble controlling the running game.

   At the plate, his swing can be a bit long, but Ohlman offers above average potential power.  His bat has been ahead of his glove for some time, and probably always will be.  There is thought that once he incorporates his lower body into his swing more consistently, he will fulfill that power possibility.

    The acquisition of Ohlman gives the Blue Jays added depth both behind the plate and at 1st.  With A.J. Jimenez now the current favourite to win the back up job to Russell Martin barring any moves by the organization before spring training, that should mean Reese McGuire should get the majority of the reps at Buffalo, with Danny Jansen likely moving up to New Hampshire (after a solid fall campaign in the Arizona Fall League), in order to give Max Pentecost much-needed time at the position with Dunedin.

   Ohlman has made progress with his receiving skills, but it's hard to see him challenging for an MLB job, even as a back up, at spring training this year.  The Blue Jays may look to get him out from behind the plate more often in order to take advantage of his offensive skills.

Blue Jays "Catcher of the Future": Blessing or Curse?

Max Pentecost MLB Prospect Portal Photo

     In their second year of existence in 1978, the Blue Jays selected Texas high school Catcher Brian Milner in the 7th round of the June draft.  A week after the draft, like many top picks, Milner was brought to Toronto to work out and see the city.  The fledgling Jays were so thin at the position that they decided to put Milner behind the plate for a couple of games (which may have been part of his signing deal in those pre-service time concern days).  He went 4-9 in the two games, hitting a triple and driving a pair of runs before heading west to Medicine Hat for rookie ball.  The future seemed very bright for the first Catcher in MLB history to be brought directly to the big leagues after the draft.
    Brian Milner was the first Blue Jay to acquire the "Catcher of the Future" label.
    Four years later, Milner's career was over, sidelined by injury and inconsistency.  Milner did not advance beyond AA. He remains the youngest player in club history, and the first "Catcher of the Future," who did not pan out.
   He would not be the last.

     Josh Phelps.  Curtis Thigpen.   Ryan Bundy.  J.P. Arencibia.  A.J. Jimenez.  Danny Jansen.  Max Pentecost......  

     The list of Catchers the Blue Jays have drafted since 1994 is quite staggering.  86 in all have been taken, but their sum total of major league experience in a Toronto uniform is just over 400 games, most of them by Arencibia.
    Is that "Catcher of the Future" label a blessing or a curse?  Why has it been so hard for Toronto to develop a home-grown player at this position?  Some of the answers lie in the very nature of the position, and the perils of drafting high school catchers.

Defence First
   Modern-day analytics have taught us more and more about the value of a premium catcher.  In the past, we may have thought mostly about a Catcher's ability to control the opposition running game as his chief defensive responsibility.  Now, we've learned that the Pitcher is at least equally as responsible for that, and that a Catcher's true value lies in his ability to frame pitches, block pitches in the dirt, and handle a pitching staff.  It has evolved into primarily a defence-first position;  you have to look no further than the 5 year/$85 million contract the Blue Jays gave Russell Martin prior to 2015.  Martin is no slouch with the bat, but make no mistake:  the work he did in leading the Pirates to their first post-season appearance in 20 years had everything to do with his skills behind the plate.
   So when a minor league player does show promise with the bat, the tendency has been to move him from the position, likely so as to not harm his production.  Bryce Harper caught all throughout high school and junior college before being drafted as an OF.  Wil Myers was behind the plate for a couple of minor league seasons, before being moved to the OF in order to get his bat to the major leagues faster.  Joey Votto and Jayson Werth were drafted as Catchers, but were moved off the position.  The Blue Jays own Josh Donaldson was drafted as a Catcher by the Cubs.  2014 1st rounders Kyle Schwarber and Alex Jackson didn't last much beyond a full season behind the plate.
   Of course, the opposite can happen as well.  Martin was drafted as a 3rd Baseman by the Dodgers, who converted him to Catching a year after his pro debut.
   The Blue Jays, for their part, have moved few players off the position once they've drafted them. Pentecost won't be Catching at the start of this season, but that owes more to his injury history than anything else.  The plan, for now, is to move him back once his surgically repaired shoulder allows him to.
 

Demands of the Position
   Sitting in an unnatural position for a couple of hours a day.  Dealing with foul tips.  Getting crossed up with the pitcher, who throws a fastball when you called for an off-speed pitch, leaving you exposed.  Trying to throw runners out without necessarily having time to plant properly, putting added stress on the shoulder.
   These are just some of the hazards Catchers face.
   Then there's what happened to Jansen.

  Pentecost's injury history is already well known, although he seems to finally be on the road to recovery. Jimenez had his career derailed by Tommy John surgery and other injury issues. And Jansen has had a difficult time staying healthy in his brief career - a knee injury sidelined him for half a (short) season in 2014. The development of all three have been affected, to varying degrees, by the demanding nature of the position.  Missed development time can be hard to make up.  

 Developing a Catcher Takes Time
 There are so many facets of the position to learn.  It's not unusual to see young arms or bats accelerate through a minor league system, but you rarely see a Catcher do so - especially one drafted out of high school.  Of all the positions on a baseball diamond, it's the position in most need of reps.  Estimates vary, but on average it takes several hundred minor league games for a Catcher to fully polish all of his receiving skills, as well as learn how to work with pitchers,  coaxing outs from them on days when they might not have their best stuff.
  At the moment, Jansen may be the most promising of the above trio.  Jimenez has yet to prove that he can hit at anything beyond a marginal major league level, and Pentecost's defence, which hardly drew rave reviews in college, has no doubt suffered as a result of his lost playing time.  But given the Jays one step at a time development approach, the earliest we might see Jansen (if he stays healthy) is 2018, or even 2019 - if at all.
  Developing a Catcher takes time, but because it's a long process, it increases the chance of injury.  Which sets back development.

Drafting a High School Catcher is Risky
   High School Catchers drafted since 2005 have produced a total of about 23 Wins Above Replacement, over half of that by Derek Norris and Yonder Alonso.  That's just not a great track record.
  Here are the leaders over the past decade-plus amongst high school Catchers:

Num	Name	Year Drafted	Career fWAR	Round Drafted
1	Brian McCann	2002	29.9	2
2	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	2003	8.0	1
3	A.J Pierzynski	1994	24.6	3
4	Derek Norris	2007	3.8	4
5	Travis d'Arnaud	2007	-0.2	1
6	Devin Mesoraco	2007	1.9	1

SBNation Chart

  The high water mark for high school catchers was Joe Mauer, drafted by the Twins in 2001.  Mauer was the exception to the rule - a strong defensive backstop who at one time could win batting titles.  Time took its toll on Mauer, however, and he hasn't been behind the plate since 2013.  He's also a shell of his former self at the plate.  
  24 High School Catchers have been taken in the 1st round since Mauer in 2001, and Mesoraco leads them in WAR.  With all due respect, he's a decent MLB player, but it's hard to justify him as a 1st round pick.  D'Arnaud will in all likelihood pass him before long, but his six-year minor league apprenticeship (which had its share of injuries) reinforces the notion that developing a Catcher, especially one drafted out of High School, can take a long time.
   Take the case of Reese McGuire, drafted by the Pirates.  Drafted in the 1st round (14th overall) by Pittsburgh in 2013, he was labeled "A Natural" behind the plate, and was a Top 100 prospect in the eyes of Baseball America in 2013 (#81), and 2014 (#97).  He's nowhere to be found on that list this year, and wasn't even ranked a Top 20 Catcher by BA.  McGuire is still lauded for his defensive skills, but the concerns about his bat have grown every year.  He's still expected to be in the majors by 2017, but it's interesting how relatively quickly the shine came off of his top prospect label.
   A marked sign of the lack of depth of Catching prospects is that Penetcost, who has all of 109 Plate Appearances since being drafted in 2014 (and hasn't played a game in almost 20 months) has been named in the bottom half of a number of Top 20 Catching prospect lists.
   BA did a study about how many drafted players wind up in the Major Leagues. and found that about 17% of all players drafted between 1987 and 2008 for at least one game:

1987-2008 Drafts (22)
Round	Total	Signed	MLB	MLB%	3YRS	3YRS%	Unsigned%
1	633	611	446	73.0	239	39.1	3.5
1st supp	273	266	139	52.3	42	15.8	2.6
2	666	626	309	49.4	101	16.1	6.0
3-5	1,906	1,749	605	34.6	177	10.1	8.2
6-10	3,165	2,777	598	21.5	182	6.6	12.3
11-20	6,329	4,901	638	13.0	175	3.6	22.6
21+	20,433	8,191	553	6.8	135	1.6	59.9
Total	33,405	19,121	3,288	17.2%	1,051	5.5%	42.8%

   For Catchers drafted out of high school, that total would likely be even lower.  

  So, is that label one that blesses Blue Jays Catching prospects, or dooms them to an uncertain future?

   The label does ignore several facts, such as:

-the sheer volume of Catchers needed to fill out minor league rosters means that many will be called, few will be chosen.  

-developing a Catcher takes a long time - injuries, position switches, and other factors can interrupt or delay a prospect's development.  The gestation period for a Major League Catcher is likely longer than any other position.

 Should we view Jimenez, who is at this point likely a backup player at best, like another "Catcher of the Future," Robinzon Diaz (who was re-signed by the Jays this week?) as a failed COF?  

   No, because maybe it wasn't fair to put that label on him in the first place, just as it was with many other young Catchers.  Granted, he did put up some decent numbers in the lower minors, but when the competition became tougher at AA/AAA, he did not experience the same success at the plate. and the injuries caused by the wear and tear of catching didn't help, either.  Perhaps the media is in such a rush to anoint future saviours that they put labels on players before it's really fair or accurate to do so.  

  We should also consider that during the J.P. Ricciardi era, the emphasis for high draft picks was signability, not necessarily projection,  The Anthopoulos regime showed a fondness for athletic high school pitchers.  Drafting and waiting for a high school catcher was not necessarily a top priority.

  The Blue Jays, for the most part, have been an effective developer of players, but the Catching position is a different story.  The best player they have developed and drafted at the position was arguably Pat Borders  Maybe Pentecost of Jansen will change that, but they both have had - and will still have - obstacles to overcome.  In addition to trying to stay healthy, it will not be a surprise if Pentecost's offence forces him off of the position.  Jansen shows promise - he's already shown good pitch-framing and blocking skills, and the organization thought enough of him to have him handle the rehab start of Marcus Stroman last August, but on top of his own health concerns is that he hasn't proven that he can hit enough to advance to the majors.  

 And so the search for the Catcher of the Future continues.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week Three

  All four Blue Jays minor league affiliates are well underway with their seasons, so I thought I would narrow my focus a bit and take a look at some players worth keeping an eye on in the system - players who, as you move down the system, may not make an appearance and/or an impact for the big league club this year, but have a chance to get there at some point.

Buffalo
   The Bisons are a veteran team, but are well worth the trip down the QEW to watch, sitting atop the International League north standings.
  At the moment, there are not a lot of players who could reasonably be called prospects - the Bisons roster is filled more with injury insurance guys.
   Of the players who fit that prospect category, C A.J. Jimenez and IF Andy Burns would be the most worth watching.  The oft-injured Jimenez had his season debut delayed by yet another stint on the DL, but after starting at New Hampshire, he's now in Buffalo.  I watched him catch Matt Boyd's start on April 20th, and there's so much to like about him as a receiver.  Jimenez is quick and athletic, and blocks balls in the dirt well.  He's already a good framer of pitches, and helped Boyd immensely on a night when he was fighting his command with his breaking pitches a bit.  The question mark, in addition to his ability to stay healthy, is his bat.  If not for his injury, however, he may have gotten the call over Josh Thole when Dioner Navarro went on the DL. Jimenez will make a fine defense-first catcher, but his bat may limit the extent of his role on a big league club one day.
   Burns is a 3B/SS who was being groomed as a super utility player, but has played mostly 3rd and 2nd this year.  He started with New Hampshire, but was promoted to the Bisons and went 4-4 in his first game.  Burns got off to a slow start at AA last year, and I had originally thought he might be a September call up at the outset of the 2014 season.  He's another one of those overlooked guys the Blue Jays have loved to draft over the last half decade.  He had to sit out his senior NCAA season after transferring from Kentucky to Arizona, but the Jays didn't forget about him, and took him in the 11th round in 2011.
   At 27, Scott Copeland can no longer be considered a prospect, but since last August, he's placed himself on the radar.  As I write this, he went 5 strong innings for Buffalo tonight, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits, walking 3 and striking out 1 - and this has been one of his poorer outings, the first one where he hasn't at least pitched into the 6th.  Copeland, of course, is not a strikeout per inning guy.  He averages over 2.5 groundouts for every fly ball out.  He just doesn't give up a lot of hard contact:

   Of course, the only way we'll likely see Copeland is if there is an injury situation, and/or a complete meltdown of the major league rotation.  And vets like Randy Wolf and maybe Andrew Albers, Jeff Francis, or possibly even Felix Doubront might get the call before him.  At the same time, what Copeland has done since arriving in Buffalo late last season is get hitters out, posting a 1.80 ERA in 7 starts over the last two seasons, and allowing just 27 hits in 45 innings.

New Hampshire
   Boyd is the obvious pick here, but he's not the only one.  I've written before that he had a better April and May than Daniel Norris or Kendall Graveman last year, before running into some injury issues that weren't enough to sideline him, but limited his effectiveness over the last half of the year.
  I have a more detailed post coming up later this week about him, but Boyd is well worth watching.  Like Copeland, he's not necessarily a power arm, although he had added velo this year.  He relies more on command and his feel for pitching.  At the same time, Boyd's 30 K's are just 3 off the minor league lead.  It's best to see him soon if you're thinking of making a trip east to see him, because he may be in Buffalo by June if he continues to pitch as well as he has.
   Dwight Smith Jr is making quite a name for himself as a hitter.  The Blue Jays tried experimenting with him at 2nd in the Arizona Fall League and in spring training, because his bat doesn't really have the power to profile as a corner outfielder.  He put up solid numbers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and has continued to rake in AA, hitting .324/.361/.485.  Smith has hit in the 2nd spot in New Hampshire's order, and has benefitted immensely from having vets Jake Fox and KC Hobson behind him the lineup.  If speedster Jon Berti can get on base more frequently ahead of Smith in the order, he'll see even more fastballs.  With Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar ahead of him, there's no spot in the majors for Smith at the moment, but he should join Boyd in Buffalo in a few weeks.

Dunedin
   The D-Jays have a young lineup, and have had trouble showing much consistency so far.
Dawel Lugo and Mitch Nay have potential impact bats, but have struggled.  Roemon Fields may be the fastest player in the organization, but he has had trouble getting on base.
    LHP Jairo Labourt has alternated good outings with not-so-good ones so far this year.  Walks have been his nemesis as they were in his abbreviated stint in the Midwest League last year.  He's been missing bats and the strike zone at almost the same rate.  RHP Alberto Tirado has been sent to the bullpen in an attempt to harness his electric stuff, and for the most part, it's been working.  There's just not a lot of projection for a bullpen guy in High A.
   Dunedin is very much a work in progress.  Almost all of the info I get on them is second hand, of course, because there's no milb.tv coverage of the Florida State League, and the D-Jays play in front of a couple thousand empy seats every night.

Lansing
   This is the must-see team in the organization, and thanks to milb.tv, you can see them a fair amount, although not at home.
   Any discussion about this team now starts with Anthony Alford, the two sport star who is as fabulous a story as he is an athlete.  I've written a few thousand words about him, so please go back through my archives and have a look.
   The Reader's Digest Alford story:  A Mississippi all-state baseball and football star, small-town Alford was one of the nation's top football recruits in 2012, and the Blue Jays took him with their 3rd round pick, even though he had a scholarship to Southern Miss in hand.  He was labelled a 3rd rounder with first round talent - a story making the rounds recently is that the Blue Jays area scout for MS gave him the highest grade of any prospect in that year's draft class.
   Alford was involved in a campus incident in which a gun was pulled (not by him) after his freshman year, and he had his scholarship lifted.  Alford then enrolled at Ole Miss, and had to sit out a year due to transfer rules. He continued to report to the Blue Jays minor league complex in Florida after spring football, but his seasons were always cut short by the need to head back to campus in August, meaning that he had amassed just over 100 PAs over his first three minor league seasons.
   The Blue Jays offered Alford much of Front Street to give up football this past summer, but he declined.
Suddenly, in late September, he left Ole Miss, and announced his intention to give up his gridiron dreams.  I talked to him via Twitter about it, and while he didn't come right out and say it, Alford suggested that he initially went with football because he felt pressured to do so.  Football is King in Mississippi, and it's completely understandable that a young, impressionable young man would feel an obligation to pursue it if he was blessed with such talent.  Somehow, someone said something this fall that lifted the world off of his shoulders, and it convinced him that it was okay for him to make the switch to his first love of baseball, and he reported to Florida for Instructional League play.
   In order to get him some more ABs, the Blue Jays sent him to play in the Australian Baseball League this winter.  The veteran ABL pitchers with their breaking pitches often tied Alford up in knots, and he admitted that he got into a lot of unfavourable hitters' counts.  The experience seems to have paid off however, as had the time he spent with the Blue Jays in spring training (he said Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson made the biggest impression on him).  He spent some time this month on Lansing's DL with a knee issue, but he's been bashing since his return this past week, hitting .364/.417/.500 in 5 games with the Lugs.  The highlight of his week had to be the night he scored on a sacrifice fly - from 2nd base.
   I asked Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler about what has impressed him the most about Alford, and he said his AB's have been a study in patience, often working into 2-2 or 3-2 counts.  Unlike in Australia, when he widened his strike zone considerably with two strikes,  Goldberg-Strassler says that Alford looks like a very comfortable two-strike hitter.  And Alford's also not trying to pull the ball - he's hitting the ball up the middle and to right field.  All of these are signs of rapidly improving pitch recognition.
   I don't want to get ahead of myself, but Alford could be the best position player in the organization very soon.
    But Alford is not the only prospect on display in the Michigan State Capital. Among the others:

-1B Rowdy Tellez -  a power-hitting first baseman who has transformed his formerly chunky body.  The Midwest League is a tough home runs hitter's loop because of its parks with high outfield walls and the April and May winds that always seem to be knocking fly balls down, but I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of power numbers Tellez produces for Lansing.

-1B/DH/OF Ryan McBroom  The 15th round pick from last year's draft has mostly hit behind Tellez in the Lugnuts order, and pretty much all he has done is hit.  The power hasn't shown up just yet, but he's posted an impressive .323/.408/.418 line.

-OF DJ Davis  Davis is repeating Low A after failing to make much contact last year, striking out in 32% of his PAs.  And his vaunted speed didn't translate into a high stolen base total, as he was thrown out more times (20) than he wasn't (19).  Davis is making betting contact so far this season, and is hitting .302/.397/.444.

-C Danny Jansen When he's healthy and finally activated, Max Pentecost may ascend to the majors faster, but Jansen may well prove to be the Blue Jays catcher of the future.  He's had a slow start at the plate, but his bat has started to come around, and word has spread around the MWL that Jansen is tough to run on.

-RHP Chase De Jong  De Jong is repeating Lansing as well, and with the exception of his last start, appears to be on track for a mid-season promotion to Dunedin.  De Jong struck out 9 in his first start, but he's more of a finesse pitcher who relies on finesse and command. Which he didn't have in his most recent outing, and gave up a pair of homers.

-RHP Sean Reid-Foley The 2014 2nd round steal is perhaps the highest-ceiling member of Lansing's rotation.  On a shorter pitch count leash than his teammates at this point, Reid-Foley has struck out 13 in only 7 innings over 3 starts.

-SS Richard Urena Jose Reyes' potential successor, the 19 year old has held his own at the plate so far, hitting .241/.274/.345, and playing stellar defence.  Some have labelled his glove major league ready.  A switch hitter, Urena's bat from the right side has always been a concern, and he's struggled against lefties so far.

-LHP Shane Dawson The soft-tossing Drayton Valley, AB (as far as I can tell, only two minor leaguers come from a more northerly location than Dawson), southpaw relies on deception to get hitters out, which he's been doing at a healthy clip.  Shoulder injuries have sidelined Dawson each of the past two years, but he is fully recovered, and should move up to Dunedin at some point this season.  MWL hitters are currently hitting a paltry .113 against him.

  Other names due to soon get an assignment to a full-season team:  2015 1st rounder Jeff Hoffman, almost a year removed from Tommy John surgery; 2014 2nd rounder Clinton Hollon, and possible lefty Matt Smoral, who I thought was a lock for Lansing, but struggled this spring and was kept behind for extended spring training.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week 2

   Here's a wrap of the week that was in the Toronto Blue Jays minor league system:

Buffalo (6-1)
   The week got off to a bizarre start for the Bisons when their Monday game with Pawtucket that was suspended by rain and moved to Tuesday to completed as part of a doubleheader.  The second game of that set, in turn, was postponed by a power failure.
   Buffalo lost that suspended game, but then ran off six wins in a row, culminating with a sweep of Lehigh Valley when the Bisons went into the botton of the 9th trailing 4-1,  to close their home stand.
   Jeff Francis pitched five innings of shut out ball in the first game of the Wednesday twin bill, and fellow Canadian Andrew Albers responded with six frames of runless ball in the night cap.  Scott Copeland followed that up with a sparkling 7 innings the next day, allowing only one run on three hits.  Randy Wolf and Chad Jenkins each had strong starts over the weekend.
   With Colt Hynes needing some rest, he was optioned to Buffalo, and Francis was recalled to take his place.  Francis' great week continued with four innings of scoreless relief for the Blue Jays on Sunday.
  Andy Burns was promoted from New Hampshire, and was a scintillating 4-4 in his International League debut on Friday.

New Hampshire (1-6)
   The Fisher Cats got off to a good start by beating Reading to start the week, but then promptly lost their next six games in a row.
   Matt Boyd struck out 9 batters over 5 innings for the second straight start.  Scoring runs has become a bit of a challenge for New Hampshire.  Leadoff hitter Jon Berti was supposed to be a table setter, but has struggled at the plate.  Dwight Smith Jr has been hitting, on the other hand, and closed the week at .317.  A.J. Jimenez was activated from the disabled list to the Fisher Cats, and was in the lineup this weekend.

Dunedin (3-4)
   The D-Jays had a win one/lose one pattern for the week.
Jairo Labourt couldn't get out of the first inning in his start on Monday, but redeemed himself with 8Ks in 4 innings on Saturday.
  Scoring runs has been an issue for Dunedin as well, having been shut out in back to back games against Bradenton.

Lansing (5-2)
  It was a great week for the Lugnuts, who we were able to see a fair amount of during their series with Great Lakes, thanks to milb.tv.
   Lansing had a six game winning streak snapped during that series, the day after winning a 16-inning marathon against the Loons.  Great Lakes, wanting to save what was left of their bullpen, sent a position player in to pitch the top of the 16th, and he served up a two run homer to Rowdy Tellez.
   Conner Greene and Sean Reid-Foley made their full season debuts this week, and pitched well.  Greene struck out 5 in as many innings while surrendering only one run, while Reid-Foley K'd 6 in 3 scoreless innings in his debut.  Greene is piggybacking with Alonzo Gonzalez for the first part of the season, while Reid-Foley is working in tandem with Justin Shafer.
   Starlyn Suriel and Shane Dawson were dominant in their piggyback start in the extra inning game.  Suriel is not a big guy, and doesn't overpower hitters, but relies on movement and location.  Dawson, who missed much of last year, seems to be getting his velocity going, as he hit 92 in his appearance.
   Dan Jansen has shown fine receiving skills, but has struggled at the plate.  He made his first MWL hit a memorable one, though, hitting one over the left field wall at Great Lakes.
   Much has been made of DJ Davis.  The first round pick from 2012 is repeating Low A, and I was concerned about his pitch selection in the at bats I saw him have this week.  He seems to take pitches in the zone, and swing at a lot of pitches outside of the zone.  At the same time, he reached base in the Lugs first 10 games.  In the outfield, his speed allows him to cover a great deal of ground, and he hauled in several drives against Great Lakes that at first looked like they were headed for extra bases.  Davis still needs to cut down on the Ks (15 in his first 45 PAs), but I still want to give him a bit more time.  Davis was one of the youngest players taken in his draft year, and that and the fact that he played his HS ball in Mississippi means that his developmental curve may be longer than most.


Notes
  I asked Lugnuts broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler when he thinks Anthony Alford will return from injury, and he thinks the speedy outfielder will be back by the end of the month.
  I also was in contact with Canadian pitcher Jordan Romano, who was reportedly hitting 95 on the gun earlier in spring training, before suffering a torn UCL.  Romano had Tommy John surgery performed by Dr James Andrew on March 30th, and while he's still wearing a brace, he has already started rehab.
  Jeff Hoffman is slowly building up his innings as he approaches the first anniversary of his Tommy John surgery.  He threw two innings in an intrasquad game at extended spring training, hitting 97 on the gun.  If all continues to go well, Hoffman should pitch in a game that counts, likely at Lansing or Dunedin, by mid-May.

Spring Training Prospect Update #3

   The trickle of news coming out of spring training is turning into an April torrent.
With the Blue Jays making what's becoming their annual end-of-spring-training trip to Montreal for a pair of final exhibition games, the season opener is fast approaching.  We should know what the full season minor league rosters should look like by the end of the weekend.

Here's what's in the news:

2014 first round pick Jeff Hoffman has been making steady progress in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and threw in his first spring training game yesterday.  I think it went ok:

On his road back from TJ surgery, #BlueJays prospect Jeff Hoffman threw a 1-2-3 inning today in ST and worked at 95-98 mph. Wow
— Frankie Piliere (@FPiliereD1) April 1, 2015

   Before we get too excited, Hoffman is still at least a month away from when-it-counts game action.  And if there's one thing we've learned about the recovery, it's that most players take closer to 18 months to fully recover their velocity and command, Roberto Osuna being a case in point.  Still, it was welcome news.

   If you don't follow our Left Coast friend Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey) on Twitter, you should.  Caskey follows the Vancouver Canadians, and blogs about them for the Vancouver Sun.  Charlie also likes his barley and hops beverages, and is a dedicated dad, so he's all right in my books.
   Caskey has a source who let him in on some developments with several Blue Jays minor leaguers, and he shared some of that information in a pair of posts today.  The first involves news about the possible makeup of Lansing's pitching staff this year.  It's always interesting to see who the club sends to Lansing, the lowest of the full season teams in the organization.  Some pitchers move up the ladder from the GCL to the Appy League to the NWL one step at a time before hitting full season play in the Midwest League, while others skip one or more of those rungs and are fast-tracked to Lansing.
   And the news about Lansing isn't good.  Ryan Borucki, who made a comeback from TJ last year and pitched well at Bluefield and Vancouver, has been shut down with a sore elbow.  Maybe it's just the regular spring soreness, but it takes on added urgency when a player is throwing with a replacement ligament.  Not to get ahead of ourselves, but the success rate for a second Tommy John is considerably less than that of the first. This could be precautionary, of course, but he likely will be staying in Florida next week.
  Fellow southpaw Matt Smoral followed the same route as Borucki last year, and word from Caskey is that he's not had the best of springs, and he may be on the bubble.  It could just be a hiccup, or it could be he needs time in Extended Spring Training.  The Blue Jays 2nd round pick in 2012 has been brought along very slowly, but made excellent progress last year.
   Finally, yet another lefty, Jairo Labourt, seems to be having an electric spring, and may find himself in Dunedin next week.  Labourt was challenged with an assignment to Lansing last year, but had trouble with his command, and was sent back to Extended.  Sent to Vancouver to join the C's for short season play, he was one of the NWL's top prospects, and restored much luster to his reputation.
  As well, we had learned earlier in the month that Alberto Tirado will remain in the bullpen this year, and if I had to guess, he'll start with Dunedin.  Tirado struggled with the cool Midwest weather last year, and while all Blue Jays prospects raised in warm weather climates have to deal with it eventually, if he's been pitching as well as we hear he has, High A will be the better placement for him.
   Last year's 2nd rounder, Sean Reid-Foley, appears to be poised to skip both Bluefield and Vancouver for Lansing.  He's definitely on the fast track.
   On the position player side, Caskey reports that Lansing's outfield may resemble a track team, with speedsters Roemon Fields, Anthony Alford, and DJ Davis possibly getting assignments there.
   Davis, the club's first round pick in 2012, was a disappointment last year at Lansing, but was one of the youngest players in the league, and is still learning the game.  I've written extensively about Alford, the two-sport star who suddenly gave up on college football last September to focus on baseball, and while he proved during his time in Australia this winter and with the big club earlier this month that he still is raw, his ceiling is quite high.  Then there's Fields, who two springs ago was out of baseball, and working for the US Postal Service. Here he is, hitting a routine stand-up triple against the Orioles:

   According to Caskey, a Florida-based scout puts Alford ahead of Davis in terms of development.  At the same time, Davis played some of his best baseball last summer in the brief time fellow Mississippian Alford was in the lineup.  Pairing them up at least to start the season could be beneficial for both, although it's hard to see Alford spending the whole season in Lansing.  Blue Jays fans may be just as excited about Alford next spring as they have been about Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro this spring.  As for Fields, there is talk that he could start at Lansing or Dunedin.  Veteran superscout Mel Didier said that he is the best defensive outfielder in the organization, major and minor leagues.

    Caskey also reports that Catchers AJ Jimenez and Derrick Chung are out with injuries - no word on the extent with the oft-injured Jimenez, and Chung's sounds like an oblique, which isn't serious, but can be if it's not treated properly.

   Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus had a few observations about Blue Jays prospects at Spring Training today.
   About Dwight Smith, who has been playing some second base this spring, he offers:

 ..an intriguing player last year in the FSL, but one likely to end up as a fourth outfielder thanks to his “tweener” profile (not enough power for a corner, not enough defense for center). Perhaps in an attempt to remedy that, he has added a rather extreme leg kick in his stance. It might cost him some contact, but if it moves his power up a tick on the scale it could be enough to make him an everyday player. Stay tuned.

    On Emilio Guerrero, who the Jays have been attempting to convert to an outfielder, Moore observed:

 The overall product doesn’t add up to the sum of the parts for Emilio Guerrero (Blue Jays), who continues to look the part but baffles scouts with below-average baseball IQ and poor execution at the plate. The frame, at 6-4 and thin, is ideal, and he handles it well enough to handle shortstop for the time being, but the lack of approach at the plate continues to hold him back.  

 

Speaking of Osuna and Castro, I won't be surprised to find one of them back in the minors before the end of April, and if I had to wager, it would be Osuna.  Both were almost unhittable earlier in the month, but now that rosters have been pared and hitters are getting their timing back, both have given up some contact and been touched for some runs in their last few outings.  Castro may be groomed to be a multiple innings guy, but Osuna needs to pitch, and if he has a few rocky outings, I could see him making his way back, probably to AA, where he should be stretched out as a starter again.

   Spring Training is a time of renewal, and for some players, it's a chance at redemption - another shot at the big time.  At the same time, we tend to forget that for every player who makes it to the majors, there are dozens who don't, and the end of March for some can be the-writing-on-the-wall time.  Such was the case for righthander Ben White, who announced his retirement on Twitter:

Thanks everyone who supported me the past 4 years. Today I retired from the Toronto Blue Jays & the game of baseball. pic.twitter.com/T8w80vyXp6
— Ben White (@Bennyhana42) April 1, 2015

   White hails from Parksburg, PA, about an hour outside of Philadelphia, and played college ball at Temple.  White signed with the Blue Jays as an undrafted free agent following his senior year in 2011, and had advanced from Vancouver to New Hampshire, where he started a pair of games last year.  White has been a solid, if unspectacular performer for the team, pitching to contact.  If I had to speculate, there may not have been room for him in New Hampshire's rotation this year, with John Anderson converted to starting, and Taylor Cole, Matt Boyd, Casey Lawrence, and Jayson Aquino (acquired before spring training for reliever Tyler Ybarra) ahead of him, White may have felt at 26 that it was time to move on with this life.  He exited from the game in a classy manner.


One last note:
  Caskey and I compared notes about pitchers in minor league camp who have impressed, and we had one in common:  lefty Matt Boyd, who Caskey's source said has been "throwing fuel" this month.
  Boyd is another player I've written a fair amount about, and have gotten to know a little bit through our interactions on Twitter.  There's no cheering in the press box, but since I'm not a beat writer (or a journalist, really, although I try to produce quality content), I can pull a bit for this guy, who was matching Daniel Norris and Kendall Graveman strike for strike last spring, until foot and elbow (bone chips) issues limited his effectiveness.

    I write a regular Monday notebook, the first issue of which should be out early next week (maybe even Monday) - I'm holding out for the announcement of those minor league rosters.

Blue Jays Prospects: Who Could Contribute This Year?

   A Twitter follower asked us if we could come up with a list of prospects not named Daniel Norris or Dalton Pompey who we thought might make a contribution with the Blue Jays in 2015.
   That's a tough task, given that the club's top two hopefuls (Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman) not only had lengthy stays on the 25 man roster last year, they also made significant contributions to the club, and Norris and Pompey are likely to have a similar impact at some point next year.  Of all the prospects in the Blue Jays system, there is only one who might have any kind of similar impact in 2015:

Miguel Castro, RHP
   The one player who could make an Aaron Sanchez-like impact is this tall, skinny Dominican hurler.
   Castro regularly hits 98 on the gun and touches 100 with his fastball. Northwest League hitters were over matched against him, so he was promoted to Lansing and then Dunedin before season's end.
   The knock against Castro, as has been well documented, is that his secondary pitches grade as average at best. He will likely start at Dunedin and be moved to New Hampshire if he continues to have the kind of success he has had to date.  If his offspeed repertoire has not advanced enough, AA hitters will likely make him pay for it - if they can get around on his fastball.
  Alex Anthopolous himself has suggested that we may see Castro in the Toronto bullpen this summer.  If his first few starts at AA are rough ones, we don't think the club would hesitate to make the switch, and have him follow a conversion similar to that of Sanchez - a couple of Milb relief appearances, and a promotion to the bigs by mid-summer.
  As much as we would like the club to give Castro every chance to prove he can be a starter this year, and given the status of the current Toronto pen, this plan makes a lot of sense.
   MLB.com gives us a glimpse of the 19 year old:

 So, the following players are ones who we think have an outside shot at making an appearance at some point in the major leagues this year, but their impact will likely be less dramatic.

Ryan Tepera, RHP
   A middling starter for much of his career since being chosen by Toronto in the 19th round of the 2009 draft, Tepera's fortunes began to change when the organization moved him to a bullpen role with New Hampshire in 2013.
   Left off the 40 man roster and eligible for the Rule 5 draft last fall, Marc Hulett named Tepera as his top selection.  Luckily, all 30 MLB teams passed on him, and Tepera pitched in relief for Buffalo last season.  His numbers were not overwhelming, but he struck out slightly more than a batter per inning, and had a decent BB/K ratio.
   Tepera has hit 96 with his fastball, and has a sinker with good downward action.  The Blue Jays thought enough of him that they put him on the 40 man just before the November deadline this year, in order to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.  We can't see him breaking camp with the big team in April, but we can see him with the club at some point, especially if there are any bullpen meltdowns.
  You won't get a strike out the side type of power arm with Tepera, but what you will get is a pitcher who throws strikes, and pounds the lower part of the strike zone.  His likely role with the club would be in long relief, doing a Chad Jenkins-like Toronto-Buffalo QEW Shuffle.


Chad Jenkins, RHP
   We can't really think of the 2009 1st rounder as a prospect anymore, but the truth is that he pitched well for the club in a variety of roles last year, including emergency starter and first guy out of the pen.
  Jenkins is not a flamethrower, barely topping 91 with his fastball.  What he does is keep the ball down, essential for any Rogers Centre pitcher:

  Jenkins has one year of options remaining, so it's likely that he will continue in his role as a fill-in, cross the Peace Bridge multiple times guy.  He can make a contribution, but it will most likely be in an emergency role.

AJ Jimenez, C
   Once a fringe Top 10 prospect, Jimenez has fallen off the radar due to an inability to stay healthy over the past two years, and growing concerns about his bat.
   Having watched a fair bit of him, he has the makings of a premium backstop.  Lithe and athletic, his moves behind the plate are cat-like.  He is adept at blocking balls in the dirt, and is a good handler of pitchers - he's caught a fair amount of Stroman, Sanchez, and a bit of Norris.
   At the plate, Jimenez has a line drive stroke, but doesn't project to hit for much power.  He doesn't walk or strikeout out a whole lot:

 

MLBfarm.com

    The signing of Russell Martin, of course, was not good news for Jimenez.  With Josh Thole firmly ensconced as RA Dickey's catcher, there would appear to be no room for Jimenez, who is heading into his final year of options.  If Martin proves successful at catching Dickey's knuckler, or if he gets injured, a spot might open up for Jimenez.  With Max Pentecost and Danny Jansen on their way up the system, Jimenez's time with the organization might be limited, anyway.  If he were to make a contribution to the club this year, it would be in a reserve role.

Andy Burns, 3B

   Burns was the surprise of the organization last year, playing at A+ and AA before finishing off his season in fine style in the Arizona Fall League.

  A slow start cost him a chance at advancement this year.  Burns hit .200/.261/.294 in April, and .223/.317/.359 in May before finally heating up, and finishing the year at .255/.315/.430.  

   He played mostly 3rd this year at AA, but Burns has the athleticism to play a variety of positions both infield and outfield.  The Blue Jays played him at five positions in Arizona, as it looks like they are priming him to be a super utility player.  With things more or less open in the competition for the 2nd base job with Toronto at spring training, it will be interesting to see where the club decides to play Burns, who will likely play at Buffalo.  

  If injuries and/or inconsistency open up a spot for a player who can play a variety of positions, Burns could get an audition.

Jon Berti, 2B, Devon Travis 2B
   The acquisition of Travis  pushes Berti down the depth chart.  Berti projects to have plus speed, but the question is if he will get on base enough to take advantage of it.  Berti drew good reviews for his play against top calibre competition in the Arizona Fall League.
   Travis, similar to Kevin Pillar, has hit just about everywhere he has played, but like Pillar has more than his fair share of detractors.  He will likely start the season at Buffalo, with Berti returning to New Hampshire.  The need for some offence at the position on the big club is so huge that we can easily see one of the pair get a trial in the majors if they get off to a blazing start.
   With his speed, Berti profiles more as a leadoff hitter, although he posted his lowest walk rate in four years of pro ball last year at AA.  Travis is projected to be more of a bat will play kind of guy, likely in the bottom third of the order.
 


   And that's about it.  Farm systems tend to be cyclical in nature, so this year may be a bit of a down year in terms of producing players who can make a significant impact at the major league level.  As we have written before, with over half of the system's depth a Low A or lower, and with 3 of its top 20 prospects traded in the Josh Donaldson deal, it will take at least another year to produce any more top level talent.

5 Sleeper Prospects

Amazon photo

   The term "Sleeper" as applied to a prospect is a bit of a misnomer, as it suggests that a player has latent talent that is just waiting to be woken up.  In our experience, prospects don't develop at the same rate, so when a player has a breakout season, it's often more because they have figured something out (new release point, repeating delivery consistently, a new grip on their four-seamer, how to recognize breaking pitches better, etc), or have seen a commitment to training (proper fitness, nutrition, sleep, and specific skill work) start to pay off.  The point is that the breakout came as a result of the player actively seeking to unlock their ability - the term "Sleeper," again suggests a passive process, when the result is anything but.

  In the spirit of our last post, which looked at five Blue Jays prospects who we considered, but ultimately decided against including in our Top 20 Prospect list, here are 5 more who we may have overlooked, but could make impressive gains next year if the stars align and all goes well for them. They may be "Sleepers," in the sense that they really haven't broken through into the spotlight yet, but their skill level and athleticism suggest they could:

BDT Photo

Lane Thomas IF/OF    
   The Blue Jays took the Tennessee HS product in the 5th round of last June's draft.  Thomas has the athleticism the team prefers in a draft pick, and has a skill set that is described as well rounded.  A plus runner, there were some thoughts that he could develop into a premium centrefielder, but reports on his work there are mixed.  There is thought that his agility and arm strength is better suited to SS or 3B.
   Thomas started the year in the GCL, and was elevated to Bluefield for the final month of the season.  Thomas' development took off in the Appy League, and he hit .323/.384/.431 at the higher level.  Here's what Baseball America's Clint Longenecker had to say about him:

 
    Lane Thomas is an exciting player that the Bluefield staff praised. He got time at third base this summer, an interesting development because he has an above-average arm. He ran well but was not a true burner in center field, where he played most as an amateur. He plays the game hard and has natural aptitude for the game. He will likely see some time at Bluefield or Vancouver next summer, given the Blue Jays history with recent high school draftees, and will absolutely be                                                                                                 someone who could factor onto the (top prospect)                                                                                                      list.

   In Thomas' case, it's mostly sample size that has kept him out of consideration for one of our top prospect slots.  That may not be the case after 2015.

Matt Boyd LHP
   Boyd was looking like a lock for our Top 20 in April, when he had a better month than Daniel Norris and Kendall Graveman.
   The Jays' 6th round pick out of Oregon State last year, Boyd was promoted to AA after giving up only one earned run over his first 5 starts this year with Dunedin, covering 31 innings.  Over that time, he surrendered only 18 hits, walked 5, and struck out 37, including 12 in his final start.

Rocektsports.com 

   Things did not go as well for Boyd in AA.  Boyd hurt his foot shortly after the promotion, and he admits that he failed to repeat his delivery consistently after it had healed, and the more experienced Eastern League hitters barreled him up often in 2 of his first 3 starts.  Boyd seemed to be figuring things out when he was roughed up in a start at the end of May, and was sent back to Dunedin.
   He pitched reasonably well for Dunedin in June, and found himself back in AA by July as a result of some injury issues and roster moves higher in the organization, striking out 9 in his first start, but was back in Dunedin to finish the season.  Boyd was lit up in his last couple of starts with the D-Jays, and we have to wonder if the almost 280 innings (he helped OSU get to the College World Series in 2013) he has logged between his senior year of college and first two years of pro ball (a span of about 18 months) have taken their toll.
   Boyd was a reliever in his first three years of college, and with his low three quarters arm slot was tough on lefthanded hitters.  He raised his arm slot and was sent to the OSU starting rotation for his senior year, and had a fantastic season.  Boyd sits between 90 and 92 with his fastball, and has touched 94.  He doesn't have one outstanding pitch, but throws all four of his pitches well. He projects as a back of the rotation starter.
   If the club was to consider moving Boyd into a relief role, he might rocket through the system quickly.
   
Taylor Cole RHP

   It's hard not to be a fan of this guy.  At 25, he was old for High A ball this year.  A two-year missionary commitment during his days at Brigham Young (in Toronto, of all places) meant that the righthander didn't debut in pro ball until he was 22.

Milb.com

   Cole has a plus fastball, and he trusted it more this year, and led the minor leagues in strikeouts with 181, as a result. Paired with a solid change up and a vastly improved slider,  BA named him their top Fringe Prospect of the Year, and while that's something of a dubious honour (he wasn't named a Top 20 Florida State League prospect), it's evidence that the scouting community at least took notice of his year.
   Cole made a pair of starts for New Hampshire in early August, and had command issues in both.  Returned to Dunedin for the rest of the year. he seemed to wear down like Boyd did, and wasn't effective in the FSL playoffs.
   It's very hard to see Cole as a major league starter, but his 11.9K/9 this year is really hard to ignore.  He could become another one of those bullpen power arms with his fastball/change combo.  The graph below indicates a lot of swing and misses and weak contact:

MLBFarm.com 

Jesus Tinoco RHP
    He has yet to put up the numbers to match his talent, but Tinoco is dripping with potential.
Here's what BA's Longenecker had to say about him:

Milb.com

  Jesus Tinoco has a real chance to emerge with continued development, both physically and mentally. He has youth (19), a great body, the fastball (velo and life) as a foundation for his prospect status. He can really sink the baseball. His combination of fastball velocity and heavy sink reminded some of former Blue Jay farmhand Henderson Alvarez, who has the 7th highest GB rate among MLB starters. His changeup is presently his best secondary offering and his curveball shows 12-6 tilt at its best, though it is inconsistent. Tinoco will need to improve his lower half in his delivery because he often collapses his front leg and falls off to the first base side, causing him to not get on top of his pitches. But he has the raw materials to emerge. Keep your eye on Tinoco.

   We talked to Danny Jansen, who caught Tinoco at Bluefield this year, and he said Tinoco was dominant at times, and could be tough to hit when his sinker was on.  When he's on, Tinoco induces twice as much groundball contact as he does the flyball variety.  When he's not, he tends to catch too much of the strike zone and gets hit.  Tinoco won't turn 20 until the first month of full season ball next year, but he's already a veteran of three minor league seasons, two of them stateside.  It still is hard to determine his ceiling, but he has the makings of                                                                                                 yet another power arm.


 Clinton Hollon, RHP
   We admittedly are going far, far out on a limb here, or maybe you haven't noticed our preference for projection.
  Hollon, a 2nd round pick in 2013, saw his draft stock slip after a drop in velo caused by elbow soreness before his senior year of high school.  He had regularly hit the mid-90s as a sophomore.  The Blue Jays knew of his elbow troubles, but couldn't ignore his potential.   Hollon has been limited to 17 innings as a pro, and underwent Tommy John surgery in May.
   Much has been made of Hollon's max effort delivery, and there's little doubt that the Blue Jays will work to correct that.  Prior to his injury, his slider was graded as a plus pitch, and his change was average.  If he can find his former velocity and improve his mechanics, Hollon could emerge as one of the steals of his draft year.  He would not be the first pitcher to undergo this sort of transformation with the Blue Jay organization.
   He won't be returning to game action until May, and even then that will be likely at Extended.  The good folks of Vancouver may get to see another electric arm in him this summer.


   We acknowledge that there are other names that could have been considered for this list.  LHPs Jake Brentz and Grayson Huffman are part of an impressive pool of arms in the lower levels of the system, and may move quickly with added experience.  And Andy Burns has dropped off of our radar a bit this season, but he had an impressive second half with New Hampshire, and could easily find himself in a super utility role with the big club later this year or next.  Josh Almonte had a banner year at Bluefield, and could press for a spot on Lansing's roster this spring.  The signing of Russell Martin has given the organization's catching prospects more time to develop, but it likely hurts AJ Jimenez's chances of a spot on the major league roster, which is unfortunate, because we really like his work behind the plate.  Shortstop Yeltsin Gudino made his stateside debut this summer, and was the 7th youngest player in the GCL, which showed in his struggles at the plate, but there is still plenty of upside to him.
   But we have to draw the line somewhere, or at least come up with a Top 50 Prospects list if we can't.
   Over half of its talent is below full season ball, but there is a lot to be optimistic about with this farm system.

What Does the Russell Martin Signing Mean for Blue Jays Milb Catchers?

    The signing of free agent catcher Russell Martin has been equally lauded and panned across print, online and electronic media.
   While we can argue with the economics of the deal, it was more a reflection of where the market is going, and that in baseball, you are paid more often for what you have done, as opposed to what you might do in the future.
   And what Russell might do in the future is to upgrade the position for the Jays, possibly offer some roster flexibility, and give their minor league receivers more time to develop.

   We acknowledge that Russell is on the downside of his career - only 86 men have caught more games than Russell's 1121.  Just the same, he has been termed one of the top five framers of pitches over the period 2007-2011, and has justifiably gained a reputation as a good handler of young pitchers.  With Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison already in the starting rotation, and Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris on the verge of joining it, that had to be an important consideration for the club.

   While his production may be declining, Martin did have his best season at the plate last year (albeit it in only 460 PAs) since 2008.  Just the same, he likely won't match the offensive output of incumbent Dionner Navarro.
   What Martin's presence on the roster does do is give the Blue Jays a chance to either use the switch-hitting Navarro in a variety of spots, including First Base, DH, and spelling Martin (and acting as injury insurance).  Or, it may give the club an opportunity to mull over trade offers for Navarro to shore up other areas of the club, in which case a spot might open up on the roster for AJ Jimenez, who would likely make a good back up to Martin while he gains MLB experience.

   The signing also buys some added development time for Jimenez and the other catching prospects in the Blue Jays system.  The concern all along for Jimenez is his bat, and given his injury issues over the past two seasons, he could still benefit from added exposure to Triple A pitching.
   Injuries and a long collegiate season limited 2014 first round pick Max Pentecost to only 72 innings behind the plate this season.  Shoulder surgery in October will delay his 2015 debut until likely some time in May.  There was thought that Pentecost could be in the major by 2016, and while that may still happen, there isn't the urgency to rush him now that Martin is under contract.
   Danny Jansen, who would be next in line in terms of prospects, will now likely get the chance to hone his game-calling and offensive skills for a full season at Lansing, and not be rushed up the ladder.

   This is not to say, of course, that Martin is a long-term solution.  The odds of him still being a regular and productive player at the MLB level in five years would have to be long.  And given that catching depth is still one of the weaker lengths in the organizational chain, it still needs to be addressed.  Just the same, signing Martin bolsters both the major league club and the minor league organization.

Monday Notebook

  

One next-to-last edition of the Monday Notebook is here for you, Blue Jays Prospect Fans..

.

 As the minor league season entered its final weekend, three Blue Jays affiliates were in contention for a playoff spot.
   The Vancouver Canadians clinched the second half Northern Division title in the Northwest League by virtue of a victory over Spokane, the first half champs.
  Vancouver played some inconsistent ball over the second half, but made what is becoming for them a patented run in the last week of the season, and clinched a playoff birth against Spokane on Sunday.  They open their first round series against - you guessed it - Spokane today.
   Buffalo was well back of a playoff spot over a month ago.  Bolstered by the additions of Dalton Pompey, Daniel Norris, and Kendall Graveman from AA, and the return of Cole Gillespie and acquisition of Matt Hague, the Bisons went 24-9 in one stretch, and even briefly overtook Pawtucket for the final playoff spot.  The Bisons entered the final weekend of play needing to sweep playoff-bound Syracuse for the wild card spot, but fell short on Sunday.  Despite a perfect game through 5 and a no-hitter through six by the newly promoted Paolo Espino, the Bisons scored runs in the 7th, 8th, and 9th to tie the contest, only to lose on a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th.
   Lansing entered the weekend with a shot at a wild card spot, but failed to make the Midwest League playoffs.
  Dunedin already clinched a spot in the post-season by winning their first half Florida State League division title.  Even though they stumbled a bit down the stretch, the D-Jays are anchored by a rotation of Matt Boyd, Taylor Cole, and Roberto Osuna/Miguel Castro, and have a decent shot at a title.


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   Late last night, our Twitter feed was exploding with news of Blue Jays promotions.  Pompey, Graveman, and Norris were promoted, according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, along with Sean Nolin, George Kottaras, Ryan Goins, Dan Johnson, Anthony Gose, and a rehabbing Brendan Morrow.  There has been no confirmation yet from the Blue Jays, and we admit that we're surprised that AJ Jimenez was not part of that group.  Stay tuned....

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   We've been meaning to look into this for a while, but we give a tip of the hat to fellow Blue Jays prospect follower Minor Leaguer for pointing out the the Blue Jays Player Development Contracts with two of their minor league affiliates expire at the end of this season.
 
   The vast majority of minor league teams are owned by private or community interests.  Toronto owns only one of its minor league clubs outright, its Dunedin club in the Advanced A Florida State League.  PDCs usually come up for renewal every other September in even years.

   The Blue Jays PDCs with the Low A Lansing Lugnuts and the Rookie Level Bluefield Blue Jays come up for renewal next month.  A number of minor league teams have already renewed or switched affiliations, but the Blue Jays have yet to give any indication about their plans. The Jays have been affiliated with Bluefield since 2010, and Lansing since 2005.

   In case you're wondering, the Blue Jays have a PDC with Buffalo through 2016.  Even though there was a glimmer of hope they might switch affiliates if Ottawa's city council had voted if favour of stadium improvements in order to house an Eastern League team, the Jays re-upped with New Hampshire until 2016 as well.  The Jays also have a PDC with Vancouver, their short season affiliate, until 2016.  All three have solid local ownership, and draw well.  The 90 minute drive from Buffalo to Toronto is a huge benefit. The partnership with Vancouver has been wildly successful, and has helped to grow the Blue Jays brand in B.C.

   Would the Jays consider moving one or both of their expiring affiliations?  We can't see it in the case of Lansing.  The Lugnuts play in a great stadium, draw well despite fielding losing teams the past several seasons, and is only a 4 1/2 - 5 hour drive away from Toronto, making it the closest of the 8 other teams in the Midwest League which  have PDCs coming up for renewal.   One drawback of Lansing's northern location is that prospects who were raised in temperate climates sometimes struggle in the cold temperatures of the season's opening weeks.
   As for Bluefield, they don't draw as well, but they have been relatively successful in the Blue Jays short time there, after being an Orioles affiliate for decades.
    Other factors, such as quality of facilities, proximity to airports and interstates for roving instructors and front office personnel, likely come into play when deciding whether or not to extend a PDC, as does the affiliates' level of satisfaction with the major league club.  Only one other Appy League team has a PDC expiring this year, and only three Pioneer League (the other short season rookie level league) have ones due for renewal.
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   One last note:  we had said in our last post that we thought that if Osuna pitched anywhere this off-season, it would be in Mexico.  We were working off some information we were given that he was a protected player, but obviously that information was false, as the righthander tweeted himself that he was going to the Arizona Fall League.  And we're thrilled, both to see what he can do against some tough competition, and so that we can follow his progress more closely than we likely could if we was pitching in his homeland.