The Jumps Between Minor Leagues

   We've been on this topic of player development being an ongoing, and sometimes lengthy process for a while now. Most often when we think of that process, we think of the jump between AAA and the Major Leagues as being the biggest.  In the opinion of most sources we've consulted, that leap is just one of many major players have to make, and the gap between A ball and AA may in fact be the biggest.

   A ball is actually divided up into four different levels.  At the bottom rung is complex ball, for players drafted right out of high school,  college players drafted in the low rounds, and international players (many of whom played in complex leagues in their own countries, essentially making a fifth level).  Complex teams train and play at the spring training site of their parent club, on the back fields, with only a smattering of team officials, parents, and girlfriends watching.  Players at this level are learning about what being a pro player and playing every day is all about.
   Above the complex leagues is short season ball, with compacted seasons that begin in mid-June, and wrap up playoffs by the first weekend in September. This is the next step for complex league grads, as well as the first step for top college draft picks.  Life here essentially is the same as in the lower level in that the players are constantly learning and refining their skills, but with the added element of travel, and playing in front of bigger crowds.
  Finally, we get to A ball, which actually is divided into two levels.  Low A ball is for players who are getting their first shot at playing almost every day from April to September, after which (if they're successful), they move on to High A ball.
   So, by the time a player makes it to High A, he already has had several jumps and corresponding adjustments to make.  But the jump from there to AA  is considered by many to be the biggest one of all.
  Jeff Moore penned an article in the Hardball Times about the transition between the two levels, in which he termed AA ball "the entrance to the 'upper minors'."  AA is where, according to Moore, "hitters and pitchers begin to have a plan."  At this level, players can no longer get by on the strength of their raw skills and talents alone.  A pitcher who doesn't have an effective off-speed pitch, for example, will not succeed, because the hitters on this level will sit and wait on his fastball, which AA hitters can get around on more consistently than the lower level hitters can.  Similarly, a hitter who can't hit a good off-speed pitch will be exposed, too.
   The competition at AA is much closer to that of the major leagues than the low minors are, Moore suggests, and he points to the number of players who have jumped from AA to the majors as a result.  When the Blue Jays had their farm team in Las Vegas and the aerodynamic environment of the Pacific Coast League, they preferred to have their top pitching prospects performing in the more pitcher-friendly confines of New Hampshire (when Brett Cecil was demoted to get himself together a few years ago, the club sent him to the Fisher Cats, in order to protect his confidence). Some teams even prefer to keep their top prospects at AA if they're part of a winning group, rather than promote them to a mediocre AAA club.
   Moore even went as far as to say that:
          
          "..one could argue that the pure talent level (in AA) is higher because players are
           heading in an upward direction as opposed to the stagnation that tends to take
           place with some AAA players."

    To further demonstrate the difference between the upper and lower minors, Moore related the story of a college coach he had worked with who had played a few years of pro ball before turning to coaching.  The coach told Moore that he had more success in the upper levels than he did in the lower ones.  The reason was that the pitchers he faced in the low minors had electric arms, but no control.  As he moved up the ladder, he found that pitchers had better secondary pitches and control, but didn't throw overwhelming heat without a clue where it was going.
   We spoke with the Blue Jays Matt Boyd, who was promoted to AA in early May, after being lights out in High A ball with Dunedin.  Predictably, he struggled, and after a month, he found himself back in Florida.
We asked him about the differences between A and AA:

     "The biggest difference is the experience of the hitters, I faced a lot of older hitters, and they had better approaches. But I know my failures were due to my own doing, (to) sort of speak. I wasn't throwing the same as I did in Dunedin. I hurt my foot in my first start and after it healed I couldn't repeat my mechanics. That was my downfall, I couldn't repeat what got me success in high A."

   Boyd has continued his domination of FSL hitters since his return to the Sunshine State, taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his most recent start.  While teammate Daniel Norris might be next in line to fill the rotation spot in New Hampshire left by the promotion of Aaron Sanchez to Buffalo, it's only a matter of time before Boyd is back in AA, and he will no doubt be better prepared for his next trip to the "Upper Minors."

 

Monday Notebook

   Some news and views from a weekend of watching Blue Jays minor league affiliates across America....

   Ok, it started on Thursday, and it was hard not to be glued to the MLB draft.  As many had predicted, the Jays were in a bit of a gambling mood, and took ECU righthander Jeff Hoffman with the 9th pick.  Hoffman had just started to gain some separation from the rest of the pack with the top group in the draft. when he was diagnosed with a torn UCL in early May, which resulted in Tommy John surgery.  With the 11th pick, they passed on Florida HS pitcher Touki Toussaint, and went with Kennesaw St C Max Pentecost (who will likely be added to what will already be a strong Vancouver roster).
   With their 2nd round pick, the Jays took a different Florida prep pitcher, righthander Sean Reid-Foley, who had been projected as a possible late first round pick, but who may have slipped due to signability concerns.  The club likely will get a discount on Hoffman's bonus to help dissuade Reid-Foley from his commitment to Florida State.
   Jim Callis of MLB.com liked the Jays' draft,  calling theirs the best out of all 30 teams, at first look.  With Hoffman, Pentecost, and Reid-Foley, they were the only team to select 3 of MLBpipeline's top 20 prospects.
  We will look at the Blue Jays' picks in detail later, but we did notice that they abandoned their practice of drafting college seniors in rounds 4 through 10.  In the past two drafts, they have selected mostly organization guys with those picks, and signed them to ridiculously low bonuses, using the savings to sign lower picks whose stock had fallen.

  We just learned via Charlie Caskey, who must check the Vancouver Canadians roster online on an hourly basis, that Lansing righthander Alberto Tirado has been transferred to the C's roster.  This move is not surprising, given that after a decent start, Tirado has had huge struggles in his first year of full season ball.  On the year, he's 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA, and has walked 39 in 40 innings.  He's been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts.  Tirado doesn't turn 20 until December, so this move makes plenty of sense.  The Blue Jays challenged Tirado by starting him in full season ball, but he proved he's not quite ready for it.  Tirado joins a rotation that will include former Lansing teammate Jairo Labourt, and according to Caskey's sources, Miguel Castro.  It hasn't been confirmed, but Caskey is convinced that much-hyped prospects Frankie Barreto and Rowdy Tellez will also be on the C's roster.  With play in short season leagues starting this week, we'll find out soon enough, but it's promising to be an exciting summer in the Lower Mainland - one could even picture Pentecost catching those young starters.
   The Jays challenged a number of their young pitchers with Lansing assignments, with mixed results.  Labourt was sent back to extended spring training at the end of April, pitcher Adonys Cardona broke the olecranon bone at the end of his elbow, and is done for the year.  Tom Robson is presumably rehabbing an elbow or shoulder injury in Florida.  On the plus side, Chase DeJong has been roughed up a bit, but seems to be settling down nicely (four unearned runs in his last start, but 5 Ks), Shane Dawson, whose season debut was delayed by injury, has pitched well of late, and Jeremy Gabryszwski hasn't given up a run in his last two starts, and struck out a career high 9 in 6 innings in his last start.  There were concerns that he wasn't missing many bats earlier in the season, but Gabryszwski has started striking out more batters - 15 in those last two starts.

   It was quite the week for Deck McGuire.  The 2010 First round pick has been lights out since his promotion to AAA Buffalo.  In 3 starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA, striking out 10 Toledo Mud Hens in his last start.
   Over his last 19 starts, dating back to the start of August, McGuire has turned from disappointment to prospect, going 9-5 with a 2.86 ERA.  McGuire has been pounding the strike zone down low with his fastball, and has had excellent command of his curve and slider.  He has elbowed his way back into consideration for a promotion to the bigs in the event of an injury.
   McGuire's contribution, along with the return of lefthander Sean Nolin, has helped immensely for Buffalo, who lost three pitchers last Sunday.  Ricky Romero left the game in the 4th inning with a right leg strain, while reliever Rob Rasmussen, who impressed in a brief stint with the Jays, was hit in the left arm with a line drive in the 7th, while closer Neil Wagner felt some forearm tightness before wild-pitching home the winning run for Syracuse.   

   While we had said a few weeks ago that we're not going to obsess over the minutiae of each Aaron Sanchez start,  we're really pleased that his last two have been good ones, after battling some serious command issues for much of May.  In his start on Sunday,  he pitched into the 7th inning for only the second time this season, and had his longest outing of the year, lasting 6.2 against Erie, giving up 4 hits and only 1 run, striking out 7, and more importantly, walking only 1.  He stayed in the game after taking a line drive off of his shin.
   Many pundits suggest that the Jays are only a starting pitcher away from having a serious shot at a World Series title, and it's likely that if the club is thinking the same way,  Sanchez will probably be part of the asking price
   After a month where Sanchez's New Hampshire Fisher Cats club had a difficult time, going 9-22, they revamped their roster somewhat, brining in journeymen like Radhames Liz, PJ Walters, and Hector Gimenez to bolster a young roster, and it has worked, with the Fisher Cats reeling off 5 wins in a row to start June.  After the Florida State League All-Star Game, however, we suspect some Dunedin Blue Jays, such as Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey,  and Derrick Chung may be promoted to AA.


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 We took a van load of colleagues down to watch the Jays and Cards on Friday night, and we came away with a couple of observations:

-does the City of Toronto really care about people from north of the city who are trying to access the downtown ?  Coming down the 400, we weighed our options: the closed Gardiner ruled out the 427 option; a huge back up a the intersection of the 400 and 401 took away the possibility of either parking at Yorkdale, or going down Avenue Rd/University Ave - Allen Rd was out, because of the LRT construction on Eglinton.
So, that left us with Black Creek as the best option.  Except that there was construction there, too.  Not to mention all the construction around the Dome, which meant a long wait in traffic getting out of the city.
-even though we're a looooong way from the action, sitting in the 500s, particularly anywhere between first base and third, is still a great way to view the game.  From our experience, there are more diehard fans in the 500s, who don't have corporate giveaways, or tickets from a season holder friend.  As a result, many actually watch the game, and we found that we're not up and down as much with people coming back from the concessions multiple times per game.  With the safety railing in front of us, we actually have an unobstructed view, too.  Of the 35 000 in attendance at the game, we would bet half were up in the nosebleeds with us.
 

Blue Jays MILB All-Stars

   Believe it or not, Blue Jays fans, but full-season minor leagues are approaching their halfway point, and with that, various league All-Star Games are on the agenda next week. A number of Jays farmhands have been named to their rosters.

   The 50th annual Midwest League ASG will take place at West Michigan's Fifth Third Ballpark on June 17th.  Lansing Lugnuts Mitch Nay and Matt Dean have been named as starters for the East Division at third and first base respectively, while outfielder Derrick Loveless and closer Griffin Murphy were also added to the roster in reserve roles.  Nay has tailed off somewhat at the plate for the Lugnuts, which is not altogether surprising, given that he has started 56 of Lansing's 57 games in his first year of full season ball.  Dean, who recently missed three weeks with a strained oblique, has wielded a big bat in the Lugnut lineup.  Loveless has been a pleasant surprise for Lansing, and leads the team in walks.  Murphy has been lights-out as a closer, and is tied for 2nd in the MWL for saves with 8.
   Given the high hopes for the young Lugnuts this season, we were a little hopeful that one of their young pitchers might have made the team, but the young corps has struggled in their full-season ball debuts.  But, with Tom Robson and Adonys Cardona injured, Jairo Labourt sent back to extended spring training, and Chase DeJong and Alberto Tirado struggling, we're hopeful for a rebound second half from the group.

   Earlier this week, a whopping 7 Dunedin Blue Jays were named to the Florida State League All-Star roster.  Leading the way is Daniel Norris, who will start the game for the North Division, along with fellow starter Taylor Cole, who leads the league in strikeouts.  Catcher Derrick Chung, who just had a 15 game hitting streak snapped,  first baseman KC Hobson, who leads the loop in RBI, were named as reserves, and will join outfielders Dwight Smith and Dalton Pompey on the North Division team.  Closer Arik Sikula, who still leads the league with 15 saves despite being promoted to AA last week, was named to the team, but will not take part in the game.
   The D-Jays have been a huge surprise this season, sporting the best record in minor league baseball at this point.  This season has been a coming out party, in particular, for Norris and Pompey, who have caught the eye of more than a few baseball people this season.
   The FSL ASG will take place on June 14th in Bradenton.

Blue Jays MILB Players of the Month - May

    Wow - where did May go?
Seems like just the other day we were blogging about the top Blue Jays organization prospects for April , and now we're into the first week of June.

Baseball America photo

Player of the Month - Derrick Chung
   This was a no-brainer.  The Dunedin catcher has now hit safely in 15 straight games, and here's his line for the past month:

Last 30 Days

AVG  BABIP OBP      SLG    OPS

0.443  0.500 0.511 0.557   1.068

   Clearly, this isn't sustainable, especially the BABIP.  At the same time, Chung has been lauded for his work behind the plate, handling the D-Jays pitching staff with aplomb, and keeping the opposition running games in check.  He has an advanced approach at the plate, and he consistently hits the ball hard.

   We've suggested that the 26 year-old Chung is a bit old for this level, even though he still essentially is learning the position.  His numbers would suggest a promotion to New Hampshire soon. 

   For the season, Chung has a line of .338/.413/.453, in a league that can be downright chummy to pitchers/

 Honourable Mentions

Matt Dean - hit .381 with a .993 OPS, but time on the disabled list limited him to 45 plate appearances.  Lansing missed his bat in the middle of their lineup.

Marcus Knecht - the Torontonian outfielder is on a tear of his own with Dunedin, hitting .450 over his last ten games.  For the month, the Florida State League repeat slashed .355/.402/.256.

Dawel Lugo - one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, Lugo could be an impact bat one day, and after being overmatched for the first month of the season, he appears to be putting things together, hitting  .330/.359/.402 for May.  The power has yet to show up in Lugo's first year of full season ball, but that's usually the last tool to develop.

milb.com photo

Pitcher of the Month

   Another easy pick - Dunedin lefthander Daniel Norris.

Norris was named MLB Pipeline's pitcher of the month for May after another month of dominating Florida State League hitters.  With only a pitch count about the only thing keeping him from a promotion to AA, Norris posted a miniscule 0.68 ERA over 26 innings covering 5 starts for the D-Jays, walking only 8 and striking out 34.  

  We've written about Norris in detail for over a year now.  He has gone from high draft pick bust in the making to one of the rising prospects in all of baseball in about 13 months.  Whether or not he gets promoted to New Hampshire, he seems like a shoo-in, depending on his pitch and inning totals, for a roster spot in the Arizona Fall League.

Honourable Mentions
Deck McGuire - the 2010 1st round pick finally seems to be able to command the strike zone.  Promoted from New Hampshire to Buffalo, the big righthander fashioned a 2.75 ERA in 6 starts between AA and AAA,  with a WHIP of just over 1.00 in 39 innings.  McGuire routinely pitches well into the sixth and seventh innings, and is profiling as a mid-rotation innings eater.
Liam Hendriks - topped off his month with a promotion to the big leagues for a pair of starts, where he acquitted himself well under his return to Buffalo.  Discarded by three other organizations in less than a year, the Aussie righthander may have found himself a home with the Blue Jays organization after a stellar April and May in Buffalo.
Taylor Cole - the Dunedin righthander leads the FSL with 82 Ks (in 66 innings), 16 more than teammate Norris.  Cole posted a sparkling 1.96 ERA for the month, walking only 7.  Cole has three pitches working for him, and has kept hitters off balance with his ability to throw any of them in any situation.  

   With the rookie-level Dominican Summer League having started this week, and other rookie and short-season leagues about to start play in a little more than a week, we're going to have a busy time of things in another month.

Monday Notebook

   A wrap-up of the weekend goings on amongst Toronto Blue Jays prospects:

   Marcus Stroman was lights out for the Blue Jays against Kansas City on Saturday. Called up in order to help bump back Drew Hutchison and his sudden loss of velocity a few days, Stroman gave the club six strong innings, giving up 5 hits and 1 (earned) run, walking none and striking out 6.  In the process, Stroman dropped his MLB ERA from an unsightly 12.79 to a still-high-but-getting-there 7.30, and silenced his many critics at least until his next start.
   Pitching out of the bullpen earlier this month, Stroman was clearly uncomfortable with the role after having started for the past year, but it was still probably the right way to work him into the bigs.  He clearly showed his preference for starting with a 1-2-3 9-pitch top of the first, striking out the last two batters with his slider.
   This was supposed to be a spot start, but Manager John Gibbons and GM Alex Anthopolous had no choice but to option Liam Hendriks back to Buffalo, and give Stroman another start.  We can't predict whether or not he will stick with the club this time around, but he's certainly built a good case for himself to log a few starts at least.

   We were mildly surprised when Matt Boyd was sent back to High A Dunedin from AA New Hampshire.
Granted, he had been rocked in many of his starts at the higher level, but he seemed to be putting things together in his next to last start.  He seemed to have little left to prove in A+ ball, but obviously the club feels there are a few things he still needs to work on. From the hitter spray chart below, it appears keeping the ball down in the zone may have been an issue:

   In his first start back with the D-Jays yesterday,  Boyd overmatched the opposition Jupiter hitters, striking out 9 in 5 2/3 innings.  He gave up one earned run,. which actually raised his ERA to 0.49. Unless other promotions are in the offing, Boyd helps give Dunedin the best starting rotation in the Florida State League, along with Norris, Cole, White, Graveman, and Hernandez.

    With the MLB first year player draft only a few days away, most of the mock drafts we have seen project the Jays to take North Carolina State shortstop Trea Turner with the 9th pick of the first round.  Reports on Turner have been divided, but he has two traits most evaluators seem to agree on:  he has 80 (elite) level speed, and the footwork and arm to stay at short.  There are varying opinions about the hit tool.  For their second first round pick at #11, which they gained as a result of their inability to come to a deal with first round pick Phil Bickford (who has had a fine season with Cal State Fullerton, we have to admit), it may come down to either injured East Carolina righthander Jeff Hoffman, or Florida HS righty Touki Toussaint. Reports also suggest that the Jays have been giving Kennesaw State catcher Max Pentecost a very long look.  As we have said on multiple occasions, the opinions of various draft prognosticators really doesn't matter - the Blue Jays will likely take someone else at both spot, with only high athleticism and outside the box thinking about the only sure thing.

Blue Jays/Red Sox Retro Night ? Yes !!!

  A few of my fellow twits had pointed out that the Jays will play the Red Sox on September 5th, the 100th anniversary of Babe Ruth's first pro (and only minor league)  home run at Toronto's Hanlan Point Stadium.
  Many of them suggested that the two teams play in the retro uniforms of the Providence Grays and the Toronto Maple Leafs, the two participants in that pre-World War I game.
   And while the game is in Boston, and not Toronto, we still think it's a great idea.
   The Sox had purchased the 19 year old Ruth from the Baltimore Orioles, who were a minor league powerhouse at that time, early in the 1914 season.  Ruth made his major league debut as a pitcher for the Sox on July 11th, and won four of the five games he started.  Because the Red Sox had a loaded roster, they loaned Ruth to Providence (this was in the era before major league teams had minor league affiliates and farm systems; minor league teams competed and operated as independent entities) so that he could pitch on a regular basis.
   Ruth joined the Red Sox for good in 1915, and won 65 games in 3 years before Boston moved him off the mound and into the outfield to take advantage of his lethal bat.
    The International League season was winding down when Ruth launched his home run over the right field wall and into Lake Ontario.  The Maple Leafs, who represented Toronto in the International League for almost three quarters of a century, had their home park at the time on the Toronto Islands, about where Porter Airlines flights take off today.
    We've done a little research on the uniforms the two teams may have worn that day.

Here's a look at the Providence roster, with a young Ruth in the middle of the back row:

  Finding a team photo for the Maple Leafs of that year proved a little difficult, but we came up with a few from that era, like the 1917 club:

The 1907 team:

   The 07 team is still wearing uniforms that had been in vogue since the late 1800s, with the high, button-up collars.  The hat was plain, with no logo on it.  The 17 team has a more modern look, with what appears to be a white T on the hat.  We're not sure when the club switched looks, but judging from the Providence photo, the 1914 Toronto club probably was wearing something similar to the 1917 uniforms.

    We think this is a great idea, even if the game is taking place a couple of hundred kilometres, instead of a couple of hundred metres, from where the event took place.  Of course, given that the Red Sox practically donated Ruth to the Yankees, launching them on a period of dominance that lasted over 40 years, while the Sox went 87 years between World Series wins might mean that Boston might not be all that interested in such a night.  We'd love to see it happen, just the same.