Clutchlings Notebook - Playoff Hunt Edition

Vladimir Guerrero Jr - milb.com photo

      Minor league playoff races, in terms of excitement, don't generate a whole lot of buzz beyond the cities and leagues involved, but they hearken back somewhat to the golden age of the minors, when teams acted as independent entities, and were very much in competition with big league teams for players and the entertainment dollar.  As the season winds down, four Blue Jays affiliates are in a playoff position at the moment.

   The GCL Blue Jays, who perform in front of a small gathering of scouts, family, and girlfriends with no video scoreboards, walk-up music, or between-innings in-game entertainment, sit atop the Northwest Division standings with a league-best 36-13 record, but are separated by only percentage points from the GLC Phillies.  In the abbreviated GCL playoff format, only the four division winners qualify, pairing off in a one-game semi-final with the winners meeting in a best of three final.  The Jays have had to do without their leading hitter, 2nd round pick Bo Bichette, who had his appendix removed in late July.  The infielder was tearing apart the GCL in his pro debut, slashing .421/.440/.744.  There is no word on his return, but with 10 games left in the season, his bat would give the lineup a huge boost.  Last year, the club made it to the league final with one of the more veteran teams in the loop, but they are one of the youngest this year, and have the second-youngest pitching staff.

  If Bichette had remained healthy, he might have moved up to Bluefield of the Appalachian League, forming a potent 1-2 punch in the lineup with 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  Bluefield currently sits in 2nd in the Appy League's East Division, a game back of Burlington, and a half game ahead of Princeton.  The top 2 teams in each division make the post-season.  The club lost leading hitter Nash Knight when he was promoted to Vancouver, but there is still plenty of pop in the lineup - Bluefield leads the league in Home Runs with 50.

   The Low A Lansing Lugnuts also occupy a playoff position at the moment, a half game ahead of both Great Lakes and 1.5 games up on Lake County for the second (and final) Eastern Division playoff spot.  Full season teams see a lot of players come and go, and such is the case with Lansing, who have seen Francisco Rios, Jon Harris, and now Max Pentecost move on to Dunedin.

  Dunedin also is in a playoff spot at the moment, sitting atop the Florida State League's North Division, thanks to a 7-game winning streak.  The D-Jays lost SS Richard Urena to New Hampshire earlier this month, but still have the organization's top prospect in rebounding OF Anthony Alford.

   Playoff participation is something of a double-edge sword for MLB farm departments.  On the one hand, the pressure is a good experience for their prospects, but with some of their younger pitchers already having exceeded their career highs in innings pitched, Managers have to have one eye on the pitch count as well as one on the scoreboard.  Already, Rios has been moved to Dunedin's pen to preserve his arm, and other starters like Ryan Borucki, who has found himself with Lansing this year, are seeing their pitch counts reduced as the season winds down.  Similarly, especially with some of the Lansing roster, many players are in their first year of full season ball, and are wearing down as well.  Still, especially for the top prospects, the organization do doubt likes having them take part in the playoffs together.

***************************************************************************

   One team that is conspicuous by its absence from the post-season for the second straight year is Vancouver.  The C's won the Northwest League title in their first three seasons as a Jays affiliate, and made it to the final in their fourth.  The partnership with the Jays has been wildly successful, and the C's lead the NWL in attendance by almost an average of 1 000 fans a game.
   For the second straight year, however, the C's are mostly devoid of top prospects.  Roberto Osuna, Kevin Pillar, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and the departed Franklin Barreto have all spent time in YVR, but the only high profile prospect to adorn the lineup this year was P Justin Maese, who was promoted to Lansing a month ago.
   The C's are next to last in the league in batting average and ERA.  Thanks to the Shaw Cable network, select Saturday night home games are televised - the quality is decent, and you have to love the high camera angle on plays at 1st Base.  After watching a few Shaw games, as well as some at Hillsboro, which provides an milb.tv feed, it's been possible for Eastern Canadians to catch a glimpse of the C's, and get a read on some of their players.
   Three players that have stood out are outfielders Josh Palacios and J.B. Woodman, and SS Yeltsin Gudino.  Palacios, a 4th round pick in June, looks like a 110m hurdler, and his athleticism will no doubt translate well as he gains experience.  Woodman, the team's 2nd round pick, has bat speed but a bit of a long swing, and has struck out in 31% of his ABs.  Gudino, a prized IFA signing from 2013, is slick at shortstop, with good hands and a quick release.  The question has always been about his bat, and while his .214/.328/.244 line has done nothing to quell that, he shows quick hands and makes contact.  At 19, he's fared reasonably well against higher competition after failing to crack the Mendoza line in his previous two minor league stops. C Javier Hernandez is probably another name worth mentioning.  He has already drawn praise for his defensive work from previous seasons, but he's not produced a great deal offensively.
   Fielding a competitive NWL team can be difficult.  The league is filled with recent college grads, most of whom were mid-level draftees.  These players tend to produce well in short season ball, but have low ceilings.  In order to stock an NWL team, an organization has to risk some of its picks on this type of player. Ryan McBroom was among the most successful of these, but this year, the organization has opted to place younger players, like Gudino, Hernanedez, and 3B Bryan Lizardo in Vancouver, and while they ultimately may have higher ceilings, they've mostly struggled against the advanced NWL pitching.
   Still the fans in Vancouver deserve more.  The Blue Jays in the past have liked sending their top prospects there, to give them a taste of life in Canada.  With strong entries in Bluefield and the GCL this year, hopefully that will translate into a more successful C's team next year.

Tellez, Reid-Foley, and Pentecost: Three Prospects on Fire

Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com 

  As the minor league season settles firmly into its second half, three Toronto Blue Jays  prospects have emerged as not only as among the top ones in the organization, but in all of minor league baseball, as well.

   Rowdy Tellez was a legend on the showcase circuit for his batting practice and home run derby displays as a high schooler.  Thought to be a lock to attend USC, the Blue Jays took a flyer on him in the 28th round in 2013 as a result some draft day dealing that may one day go down as one of former GM Alex Anthopoulos' best moves.
   With a new system of bonuses in place for draftees (and penalties for teams that went over their allotted bonus budget), the Blue Jays loaded up on college seniors after the 4th round (they did take a high schooler named Conner Greene in the 7th round).  With little leverage, many of these players had no choice but to sign - Matt Boyd signed for $75 000, while Kendall Graveman and Chad Girodo each signed for $5 000.
   Using the savings they gained through those rounds,  Toronto chose Tellez in the 28th round, and threw a $750 000 bonus at him to forego his college commitment.
   Tellez did not rocket through the Jays system after making his debut with the GCL Jays later that summer. An 0-34 start at Bluefield in 2014 exposed some flaws, and talk was growing that the Californian was turning into a bad-bodied, base-clogging, one-dimensional slugger.
   But the organization was patient with the 6'4"/250 prospect, giving him time to re-configure his body, and work on other parts of his game.  In a 2015 split between Lansing and Dunedin, Tellez began to turn some heads and change some minds.
   Some eyebrows were raised when Tellez was sent to AA New Hampshire to begin 2016, but the club obviously felt he was more than up to the challenge.  Unlike many other hitting prospects, Tellez is a patient, use-the-whole-field hitter, and that advanced approach helped when he didn't see a whole lot of strikes in April, putting up a .706 OPS despite a .164 batting average.

MLBfarm.com graphic

  As other hitters in New Hampshire's lineup like Dwight Smith Jr began to heat up in May, opposition pitches could not pitch around Tellez as much, and the results showed.  Despite being one of the youngest players (he turned 21 in March) in the Eastern League, he's tied for the league lead in walks, and is in the top 5 in OBP and OPS.  Over his last 10 games, Tellez is hitting a torrid .441, with 3 homers.  On the year, he's now hitting .281/.390/.492.
   What does Tellez have to work on in order to get to the next level?  Not much, beyond hitting lefthanders better.  He can be streaky, but he has a solid approach to hitting that allows him to contribute even when the hits aren't falling in for him. He will never be the fastest of baserunners or the most agile of fielders, but Tellez is smart on the basepaths, shows surprising agility around the bag at 1st, and generates Quality AB after Quality AB, wearing pitchers down.

   Sean Reid-Foley was as surprised as anyone to repeat Lansing this year.  After a mid-season promotion to Dunedin last year, Reid-Foley was sent back to Lansing for the Midwest League playoffs, but was shut down before season's end.
   In only his second pro season, the club had challenged him with an assignment to full season ball, but the new regime likely felt this year that Reid-Foley still needed to work on his fastball command, and Low A was the place to do it.
   Reid-Foley tended to lose his mechanics somewhere in the middle innings of games last year, losing the strike zone, driving up his pitch count, and resulting in many early exits.  Reid-Foley's delivery was tweaked last fall in Instructs,  and the result was improved command this year that led another mid-June promotion to Dunedin.
   Since his return to Florida, the 2014 2nd round pick has not looked back.  His season debut with the D-Jays was a 7 inning, 2 hit/12 K outing, while his most recent was a dominant effort in which he pitched into the 8th inning for the second time in his career, giving up just one hit, fanning nine, and most importantly, issuing no walks. Long-time Dunedin PA Announcer Bill Christie was impressed:

@DunedinBlueJays #BlueJays best pitching performance by a DJay that I have witnessed, Reid-Foley 7 1/3 1H 0R 96P vs Tampa Yanks

— Bill Christie (@billsportsnews) July 4, 2016

 In 26 Florida State League innings since his recall,  Reid-Foley has struck out 32 while allowing only 6 walks.  He can hit 97 with his fastball, and sits 92-95.  When he's on, which appears to be often lately, he commands that fastball to both sides of the plate with arm side run.  With two strikes on a hitter, he can elevate that pitch to good effect.  Reid-Foley complements that fastball with a mid-80s slider that flashes plus.
   The biggest concern about Reid-Foley was that fastball command, but he seems to have found the key to consistently repeating his delivery to pound the bottom of the strike zone and generate weak contact.  He doesn't turn 20 until August, and in his third pro season there's no need to rush him, and the Jonathan Papelbon back-of-the-bullpen arm comps we heard about a year ago have been quieted.
 

MLBfarm.com graphic

Max Pentecost
  As fans, one thing about pro ball players we tend to have difficulty understanding is the toll playing every day takes on a player.  Playing high school, travel, and college ball is intense, but there's little to prepare prospects for the physical and mental grind of playing every day.  There's travel, eating properly (often without the means to do so consistently), dealing with nagging injuries, and personal things on top of having to show up to the park and give your best effort with only a handful of off-days during the season.
   For the second of the Blue Jays two 2014 first rounders, that experience has been delayed by almost two seasons while Pentecost recovered from several shoulder surgeries after a brief pro debut with Vancouver that year.
   And while some are impatient for Pentecost to move to the next level after making his return to action with Lansing only two months ago, he's still barely into his development.  And if the first two months are any indication, the athletic, bat-first Catcher will be worth the wait.
   After going 3-4 with a Home Run in his Midwest League debut, Pentecost smacked 8 hits in his first four games, and rode a hot May before tailing off as June rolled around.  He's picked again of late, hitting .378 over his last 10 games, bringing his line up to .292/.361/.429.  Not to sound cliche, but when Pentecost steps up to bat, he looks like an athlete.  He has a good approach both in terms of mechanics and pitch selection.
   What's keeping Pentecost in Lansing for now is the fact that he's yet to play a game behind the plate, DHing during his stint with the Lugnuts.  He's obviously chomping at the bit, and word is that he's not far from returning to some on-field action, but the club will want to protect their investment, and it's hard to see Pentecost catching much this season.
   And there's the rub.
  He may be the best Catching prospect in the system, but he's been limited to all of 72 innings behind the plate in his pro career.  He'll need a minimum of several hundred before he's ready to handle a big league pitching staff.  With Russell Martin signed for three more seasons after this one, there's no great urgency to rush things with Pentecost.