A Look at What's In the System

Tim Mayza - Clutchlings Photo

   With the Toronto Blue Jays struggling to score runs,  and a recent Statscast release demonstrating that in terms of baserunning speed, they have one of the slowest lineups in baseball,  thoughts of many fans are turning into what volume of selling the club will be doing at the trade deadline.
    It's hard to predict either way what the team will do at the end of this month.  A decent winning streak could put them right back into the thick of things.  But with Troy Tulowitzki struggling, Kevin Pillar reverting to career norms, and minus the spark that Devon Travis provided, it's hard to see this team playing meaningful September baseball.  The question for Blue Jays management is whether or not a quick fix, in the form of trades to shore up weak spots in the lineup is the answer, or if a complete tear-down is more in order.
   Before a team decides to blow it up and start from scratch, they have to take stock of their minor league systems.  Are there players who are close enough that their development as every day major leaguers won't be impaired by rushing them?  Are there enough players at key positions?  Will rebuilding be a long, painful, and attendance-costing process, or is there enough talent at the upper levels of the system to keep the team competitive?


   Here's a look, position-by-position, at what's in the system, and how close those players might be.

Catcher
   This is possibly the deepest position in the system - quite a turnaround from even a year ago.
Danny Jansen has gone fron oft-injured to AA All Star in the course of a year.  Reese McGuire underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in May and is out until at least August, and was replaced by Jansen.  Max Pentecost returned to Catching duties this year after two  Going deeper into the system, recent draftees Riley Adams and Hagen Danner show tremendous promise.
   Jansen and McGuire (that's the order I see them in - Jansen should become the everyday receiver, with McGuire a more than competent back up who can allow the Blue Jays to keep Jansen's bat in the lineup once in a while as a DH) are both at least a year away, while the newbies in the system are several.
   With Russ Martin under contract for two more years, and Miguel Montero just picked up from the Cubs, this position does not seem to be a priority for the Jays to re-tool.  With 3 decent prospects in full season ball, and a pair in short season, this is a position of strength for the organzation, and if the club was looking to upgrade the major league roster, this might be an area to deal from.

Corner Infielders
   This was the year that Rowdy Tellez was going to challenge Justin Smoak for a job by mid-season.
   So much for that.
    Tellez faced on and off-field struggles this half   His bat has started to show signs of life, but he's hovered around the Mendoza Line for much of the season to date.  Tellez was one of the youngest players in AA last year, and at 22, he's one of the youngest again at AAA.  There's not much to be gained by rushing him at this point.
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr may be on his way to best-prospect-in-baseball status, but he's still only 18, and several years away.
   There isn't much else at these positions.

Middle Infielders
    There is truly a glut of players in the system who can play 2nd and SS.   The most promising, of course, is Guerrero's bashing Lansing brother Bo Bichette, who is still a few years away as well.
  Richard Ureña was one of the youngest players in AA at the start of the season.  After settling many questions about his bat the past two years, he's struggled at the plate this year.  There is no doubt about his defensive skills.  He is the eventual successor to Troy Tulowitzki, but he likely is destined to be a bottom third of the order hitter.
    Jason Leblebijian has had the most successful season of any Blue Jays middle infielder.  Once viewed as an org guy, he went to Australia a couple of seasons ago, mashed his way to an MVP award, and seemingly hasn't stopped hitting.  At 26, his prospect status is starting to wane, however, and he can't really be viewed as a long-term answer.
    Top draft pick Logan Warmoth made his pro debut in the GCL, and now is a fixture in Vancouver's lineup.  He may even make it to Lansing by the end of the summer. He's not likely to make his MLB debut this decade, though.
   Lourdes Gurriel is something of a wild card here.  He could profile as a SS, 2B, or a LF.  After not playing for almost two years following his defection from Cuba, the Blue Jays expected some rust, but injuries have slowed his development this year.  A recent series against Bradenton showed some issues with bat speed and timing, but that apepars to be coming around now that he's healthy and in the lineup of AA New Hampshire every day.

Outfielders
   Blue Jays fans got a glimpse of the future when toolsy Anthony Alford made his MLB debut this year.  It was a brief one, of course, but if his recovery from wrist surgery goes well, (he's been back for about a week), there's every chance we see him in a Blue Jays uniform this summer.
   And the stock of good players at this position who are close begins and ends with Alford.  Roemon Fields has put together a surprising .298/.348/.385 line at Buffalo, but has struggled throughout much of his full-season minor league career to get on base enough to take advantage of his speed.  Dwight Smith Jr likewise has put up decent numbers at AAA, and even hit well in a brief audition with the big club, but he and Fields really should be considered to be no more than fourth outfielders at best.
   Edward Olivares has opened at lot of eyes at Lansing this year, but has to prove that he can maintain that kind of contact at the higher levels.  An aside: watching Olivares take BP earlier this year, it was kind of mystifying to watch him drive so many pitches into the top of the cage in an obvious attempt to put some loft on the ball.  Given his build and speed, an observer might have been tempted to think that a line drive, on-base approach might be better.  During the game that followed, Olivares lofted a HR over the wall in Left-Centre, a noteworthy blast in April at Cooley Law School Stadium.  He is a five-tool player (leads all Midwest League OFs in Assists) and a premium athlete who is still several years away.
2016 2nd rounder J.B. Woodman has swung and missed at a lot of pitches so far this year in the Midwest League.
  Dalton Pompey continues to try to stay healthy and see his name on the lineup card every day.
  This is not a positon of depth in the system, however.

Starting Pitchers
   Sean Reid-Foley would have been considered the top starting prospect in the system this year.  In his first try at AA, he's been too fine with his pitches, and has had his ups and downs, athough his most recent outing was a gem.  He's also only 21, and obviously needs more time.
    The same could be said of Conner Greene, who's walking hitters at a career-high rate (5.5/9) as SRF's rotation-mate.  Greene has shown flashes of brilliance, but has yet to put a solid stretch together - he walked 8 and fanned only 2 over only 4 innings in his last start.
   TJ Zeuch, the club's 1st round pick last year, showed promise in High A, but struggled to stay healthy as many pitchers do in his first full season, and is on the DL.  He's resumed baseball activities since being shut down a month ago, but there is not date for his return.
   Ryan Borucki was added to the 40-man last August, but his lengthy injury history prompted the team to shut him down briefly early in the season, and he was on a pitch-count limit until June.  Teammate and GTA product Jordan Romano has probably been the best starter in the Blue Jays system this year, although he may profile more as an MLB reliever. Both have to be considered two-three years away.
   Justin Maese reached Lansing in only his second pro season (quite a feat for a high school P) last August, but he too has been shut down with shoulder issues.  He returned to action in a GCL rehab stint this week, but the club is likely understandably reluctant to rush things.  Both Maese and Zeuch are several years away.
   Southpaw Angel Perdomo has been brought slowly through the system, and has pitched well at High A this year.  Most scouts are of the belief that his lights-out fastball will play better in a bullpen one day, but the Blue Jays are content for now to allow him to continue to develop as a starter.
   2015 1st rounder Jon Harris has had his struggles at AA this year, but seems to be turning things around.
   Yennsy Diaz has dazzled Midwest League hitters with his electric fastball since making his full season debut last month.  If his secondaries continue to develop, he will be an arm worth watching.

Relief Pitchers
   If there is one area that has consistently been one of the deepest pools of talent in the system.
Which is a good thing, considering the short shelf life of the modern day MLB reliever.
   Chris Rowley has rocketed through the system after being released from his military commitment last February.  He does not blow hitters away, but uses a combination of location and movement to keep hitters off balance.  He pitched in relief last year and for the first two months of this year, but injuries in New Hampshire's rotation forced him into a starting role.  He has been lights out in either capacity, earning a promotion to Buffalo.  The Blue Jays would have preferred to keep him in relief, according to a team official, but he's proven valuable in the swing man role.  He's knocking on the door of a major league job.
   Southpaw Matt Dermody has made tremendous strides since being switched to full-time bullpen duties two years ago, and even made a few appearances with the big club last fall.  He was hit hard in his only MLB outing this year, and has given up some contact with Buffalo, but is still striking out a batter per inning.  Fellow lefty Tim Mayza turned some heads in spring training, and after dazzling with an electric fastball that hits 97.  RHP John Stilson and his 96 mph fastball have been knocking on the major league door for some time, but injuries seem to keep getting in the way.
  At AA, Dusty Isaacs and New Brunswick's Andrew Case (recetnly promoted to Buffalo) haven't had a lot of opportunities to close the door on opponents for the last-place Fisher Cats, but have been very effective in late inning situations.  And while we usually don't go below that level to look for potential bullpen arms, Kirby Snead, Zach Jackson and Jackson McClelland have put together impressive seasons first at Lansing and now Dunedin.
   This is another position of strength for the organization in terms of depth.

Zach Jackson - Clutchlings photo

    In short, this is a system with a growing stockpile of talent, but there is little of it that's ready to step into an everyday role with the big league club.  Alford is the most obvious candidate, but the struggles of Tellez, Reid-Foley, and Greene indicate that they're still at least a year away.  Bichette and Guerrero are clearly the jewels of the system, but 2019 would have to be the earliest we would see them, and that date is probably a bit on the optimistic side.
    There is some trade depth if the Blue Jays were looking to upgrade the major league roster.  If Pentecost does not pan out behind the plate, his athleticism would be a fit for many teams.  Olivares offers a toolkit that might be very tempting.  And despite not being able to offer more than a $300K bonus to any of their international signings last year in the hangover that was the 2015 Vladdy Jr signing, there are some intriguing arms in that group.
    It's hard to say which way the Blue Jays management group is leaning, but if past performance is any indication, this is an administration which prefers to build from within, using young controllable players.  We're not apt to see the likes of Alex Anthopoulos' dealing two years ago (he traded 18 prospects in the span of eight months).   Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro is well aware of the risks of doing a full-on tear down, and is not likely to make a wholesale overhaul of the major league roster. The deals that he and GM Ross Atkins would make, if any, would probably involve the return of upper-level prospects for players on the 25-man with soon to be expiring contracts.  With a stable of prospects reaching the middle levels of the system this year, and a likely Top 10 draft pick next year barring a remarkable second half turnaround, it seems more likely that the Blue Jays will not be holding a fire sale later this month, but may look to move one or two contracts, with an eye to the club becoming more competitive in the next two years.

 

 
 
 

Blue Jays Prospect Ryan Goes McBoom for Walk-Off Win

Clutchlings photo

   Blue Jays 1B prospect Ryan McBroom went deep yesterday in the bottom of the 9th against the Yankees, giving the team a walk-off spring training win:

    Although he has long been considered a fringe prospect, all McBroom has done since he joined the organization as a 15th round choice from West Virginia in 2014 is hit.  He posted an .841 OPS at Vancouver in his first pro season, .869 in his second at Lansing (where he was the Midwest League MVP), and he led the Florida State League in RBI and smacked 21 Homers in a very pitcher-friendly loop last year.

   The knock against the 6'3"/230 McBroom has been that he's a bat-first player.  The Blue Jays have experimented with him in the outfield, but his position for the present and future is 1st Base.  He does not have the speed or arm to play anywhere else.  He did steal 10 bases at Dunedin last year, but that speaks more to his baseball IQ than it does his wheels.

   At the plate, McBroom makes loud contact, but reports from last year suggest that he didn't work the count as well as he could have in 2016.  There is a swing-and-miss element to his game, but he likely didn't help himself by getting into too many pitchers' counts last year.  

      Baseball Prospectus' Steve Givarz watched McBroom in Dunedin last June, and gives his bat mixed reviews (evaluations on the 20-80 scale; 50 is considered MLB average):

Hit 40 Slightly closed stance, wide base; below-average bat speed, strength over bat speed swing, uphill swing path, makes hard loud contact when he connects; long swing, slow trigger, decent balance; fair pitch recognition, struggles on inner half; looks to extend on pitches away

Power 50 Plus raw power; loud contact with strength to take the ball out to pull side and straight away; has loft on hit balls; plays down due to long swing and below-average hit utility

   Bobby DeMuro of Today's Knuckleball is more bullish on McBroom's hit tool:

     With a swing that stays all the way through the zone, and a finish at the plate which gives some natural lift and backspin to his line drives, McBroom has the mechanics down to keep putting up big home run and double totals and hitting the ball in the air with authority, and there’s no reason he couldn’t continue to be a middle-of-the-lineup force.

   There are some developments that the Blue Jays minor league staff have been watching.  Despite his uptick in long-ball production last year, McBroom struck out at the highest rate (22%), and was on base at the lowest rate (.323 OBP) of his career so far.  That may have been because the organization wanted him to focus on driving the ball more, or it may have been a product of finding himself behind in the count a lot last year.
     McBroom had a brief audition at AA last year, filling in for a week and a half while regular New Hampshire First Baseman Rowdy Tellez was down with an injury.  It was a small sample size, but McBroom struggled against the higher level pitching.  With Tellez likely moving up to Buffalo this year, McBroom will return to the Eastern League.  Another knock against McBroom is that he always been old for the level he was at (he'll turn 25 in April).   As I have written numerous times before, AA is where the prospects truly become separated from the non-prospects.  Hitters at this level need to have a plan, and pitch recognition is a large part of that.  Pitchers at AA rely not solely on their fastball - they use a combination of fastballs and secondary pitches, wrapped up in a neat bow called command to get hitters out.

     Truth be told, I have never considered McBroom to be a Top 10 (or even Top 20) prospect - playing behind Tellez may be part of that, but bat-first prospects like McBroom are simply working with a smaller margin of error than more-rounded players. At the same time, the numbers he has posted can't be ignored.
Tellez may be the future of the franchise at 1st, but a strong performance by McBroom at AA in the first half of the season could help bolster the club's depth if they're in contention at the trade deadline.

Top Blue Jays Prospect Storylines

Sportsnet.ca photo

    After a mild January, the snow squall machine cranked up here in Southern Ontario's snowbelt this past week,  the Atlantic provinces are closing in on 100 cm of snow in less than 7 days, and normally balmy Vancouver has seen record-breaking snowfall amounts this winter.  Just the same, Canada's celebrity groundhogs have predicted an early spring, and with Pitchers and Catchers reporting to spring training this week, the end of the tunnel that is a northern winter is firmly in sight.
   Minor league spring training begins a few weeks after the major league version, and even though the participants perform far from the spotlight that the big leaguers are under, the competition is no less intense. With the Blue Jays under Mark Shapiro renewing their commitment to drafting, teaching, and developing players in their minor league system to help replenish the major league team, there should be a number of interesting stories to follow at the minor league complex in March.


Will Vladdy Jr continue to rake in full-season ball?
   The top international free agent signing of 2015 did not disappoint in his debut season last year.
Skipping the complex leagues, Vladimir Guerrero Jr put together a solid season against older competition in the Appalachian League, showcasing outstanding strike zone judgement, developing power, and surprising defence.   He more than caught the attention of Baseball America:

Guerrero does just about everything evaluators want to see in a teenage hitter. He has tremendous hand-eye coordination and bat-to-ball skills, to the point he seems to have been born to hit. His special hands allow him to manipulate the barrel and square up pitches of all types. He has excellent strike-zone judgement for a 17-year-old, walking nearly as often as he struck out and showing an ability to lay off breaking balls that will be further tested at higher levels. He has tremendous raw power and showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields at an advanced rate for his age. Guerrero covers the plate well and should be an above-average hitter with 30-plus homer potential down the line

    Guerrero has little left to prove in short season ball, and it is entirely likely that he gets to experience a Midwestern spring with Lansing this April.  And it's there that we will get a better idea of how legit his bat is, and if his future is indeed at 3rd Base.  Guerrero has said that he wants to be in the big leagues sooner rather than later (BA thinks 2019), and while the Blue Jays under Shapiro and Director of Player Development Gil Kim have shown a preference for slow and steady progressions of prospects, there may be a temptation to accelerate his timetable somewhere along the line.  Still, this will likely be a season of adjustments for Vladdy Jr (playing every day, in a relatively new culture, in a cold spring climate), so it's reasonable to see him stay for the season in the Midwest League.
    BA named Guerrero their 20th overall prospect - heady stuff for a player who would be in his senior year of high school if he had been raised stateside.  Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus left him off their Top 101 list this past week, the rationalization being:

 We really like the bat, but he's a 17 year old that looks like he is going to end up at first base. That's a tough profile and I need to see a full-season ball resume before I jump on board. I fully expect him to be on next year's list, and he was on various iterations of this year's.

Will Sean Reid-Foley be able to continue to dominate hitters at AA
    After reaching the second step of full season ball at Dunedin in his first crack, Reid-Foley returned to Lansing last year to start 2016.  Equipped with a new, streamlined delivery, Reid-Foley was on a mission to harness command of his fastball.  And command it he did, fanning 59 in 58 innings, earning a return trip to Dunedin, where he continued to cut down on his walks, allowing only 16 free passes (vs 71 Ks) in 57 innings.
   Reid-Foley was shut down in August for a second consecutive season for precautionary measures, meaning that his durability becomes something of a question, along with whether or not he can continue to command the strike zone at AA, where he should begin the season, or find himself by June.
   The jump from A to AA ball is the biggest in the minors.  Players can no longer get by on the strength of their physical gifts alone; hitters must be able to demonstrate more patience, and pitchers must have command and secondary pitches working for them.  And that's where the challenge will come for Reid-Foley.  There is little question about his fastball or wipeout slider.  It will be his ability to throw that fastball to both sides of the plate, and to complement it with his change up (which he worked on in Instructional League play last fall) that will ultimately determine if he meets his projection of #2 starter.  This is the season when we will finally decide how close he will come to fulfilling that.

How will Max Pentecost's shoulder respond to Catching every day?
   When Pentecost stepped into the batter's box for Lansing last May, it was his first game action in 21 months.  While his bat showed no signs of rust from the layoff, he did not go behind the plate in 2016, as the organization opted to protect his thrice-surgically repaired shoulder.
   The plan will be to have Pentecost return to Catching duties this spring, and make up for the reps he's missed since being drafted in the 1st round in 2014.
   The question is, of course, will his shoulder stand up to the rigours of Catching?  More importantly, given concerns about his receiving skills, will the results of this season ultimately force the Blue Jays to move him to another position?
   Pentecost will likely start in Dunedin, where the team's medical staff can monitor him.  All the reports suggest that he is a premium athlete, and while he probably will be an offense-first Catcher,  Pentecost should develop into at least an adequate backstop.
 

Will Anthony Alford make consistent contact to take advantage of his speed?
   Injuries led to what can be termed a sideways 2016 for Alford.  A 37% K rate in the first half could probably be attributed to layoffs from a pair of stints on the Disabled List, as he managed a more reasonable 25% in the second.
   Like Reid-Foley, Alford is destined for New Hampshire this season, where some holes in his swing could be potentially be exploited.  Alford will not be able to sit back and hammer mistakes at AA like he did in A ball.  At the same time, he has made so many adjustments in such a relatively short period of time, it would be hard to bet against Alford continuing his upward progression.
   He more than held his own in the Arizona Fall League, although there are still concerns about the relative lack of loft in his swing.  The 7 Home Runs he hit in the second half in the pitcher-friendly FSL may be evidence that his power is starting to develop. Alford uses the whole field, and even though there will always be a swing-and-miss element to his game, he makes the pitcher work in the majority of his at bats, and can draw walks, which brings his game-changing speed into play.  We will get a much truer read on his abilities this season.

Will Rowdy Tellez break camp with the Blue Jays?
   If there is any doubt that Tellez profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat, he erased that with his performance at New Hampshire.  Despite seeing few strikes in the month of April, he managed to finish 5th in the Eastern League in Home Runs, 2nd in OBP, as well as 3rd in both Slugging and OPS.
   Unlike many bat-first players, Tellez has proven to be willing to change his approach with two strikes, cutting down on his swing in an attempt to put the ball in play.
   Over at Jay Journal, Lucas Silva posits that Tellez may potentially have a problem catching up to MLB fastballs because of his habit of "casting" (ie., moving his hands away from his body as he starts loading his swing, which tends to result in a slower bat because of the longer path it has to travel).
   Now, I am not a scout, and while I enjoy reading about scouts and their work a great deal, I don't profess to know as much as others do about swing mechanics.  While his article is well written, Silva's video evidence is not compelling, and as someone who watched about 100 Tellez ABs when he was with New Hampshire last year, I have always noticed how he moves his hands slightly back as he loads (as a good hitter does), but I don't really see any real evidence of him casting.
   Silva offers as part of his argument a bit of an offhanded Keith Law remark on Tellez:  "Bad athlete.  Can't hit good fastballs."  I love Law's work as much as anyone, and I can't wait for the April release of his book, but he is known for developing a bias (hello, Devon Travis) about a player and sticking with it.  Silva also uses Josh Norris of Baseball America's rationale for leaving Tellez off BA's Top 20 Eastern League prospects list:

   “Some evaluators noted he doesn’t have the bat speed to portend the big power necessary to profile as a major league first baseman. Almost all of his power, too, is to the pull-side. He’s not a particularly deft defender, and was aided by New Hampshire’s short porch in right field.”

 
   For what it's worth, the dimensions at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium are very similar to the Rogers Centre, with foul line distances about three feet shorter than Toronto's.

 Tellez has worked hard to overcome the bad-body/DH profile he was tagged with as a high schooler, and while he has come a long way, he will never be confused with Wes Parker at 1st.  Veteran scout Bernie Pleskoff scouted Tellez in the Arizona Fall League in 2015, and while he gave a nod to the bat speed, he was impressed with the overall hit tool:

 An imposing presence at the plate, Tellez is one of several very capable left-handed-hitting first basemen playing in the 2015 Arizona Fall League.

Thus far in Arizona, I've seen a less aggressive swing than I anticipated. Tellez's pull side power could be game changing. However, he has patience at the plate and can accept a walk.

There is little question Tellez's raw power is his best and most refined tool. His hitting mechanics are still a work in progress. Tellez's hands seem slow through the ball. The slow bat speed results in some late reactions and swings and misses. Tellez makes good use of his lower half in his swing, getting those huge legs and hips to generate a true power stroke.

I view Tellez as a hitter and not just a slugger. He has compiled a .285 batting average in parts of three Minor League seasons. Tellez's power is real. His role may depend upon how much he develops as a defender. Regardless, at the minimum, Tellez can certainly look to a future as a fence-busting designated hitter.

      I'm not suggesting that Silva is wrong in his analysis, but his video evidence is inconclusive.  It does seem hard to believe, on the surface, that a prospect of his stature would be allowed to continue hitting with faulty mechanics, especially for a problem that is relatively easily corrected.  And despite these issues, Tellez still posted strong numbers as a 21 year old in his first go-round at AA.  Hitting mechanics, while fundamental to a player's success, are only one part of the overall package known as approach.  Former Baseball Prospectus writer Jason Parks, who was recently promoted to the Cubs' front office, in his essay "How Are Players Scouted, Acquired, and Developed," wrote:

The ability to recognize pitches, make adjustments to those pitches, and execute when presented with these conditions are what take the physical tool from its raw state to its ultimate ceiling.

  That, in a nutshell (to me, at least), is Tellez.  As someone who has watched a lot of him over the past two years, I have been impressed with how he has continued to mature as a hitter.  The concerns about his size, lack of speed, and defensive shortcomings seem to have overshadowed his bat for some.  Granted, players of his type are working with a smaller margin of error than most, but he has proven that he is more than a one-dimensional slugger.  He has worked hard on his conditioning and nutrition (he admitted that he really only learned how to cook properly for himself last year) - Tellez weighs 30 lbs less than he did as a high school senior.  Working hard with Blue Jays infield instructor Mike Mordecai on his positioning and footwork last year, becoming at least an adequate defender seems to be a possibility.  Old notions seem to die hard, however.
   Will he break camp with the Blue Jays this spring?  It seems unlikely - there is no rush to put him on the 40-man roster until after the season, and the consensus is that he could use another year of seasoning in Buffalo.  However, given Kendrys Morales' age and potential defensive limitations, and the decline of production from Justin Smoak, Tellez could make a contribution before next season.  One thing is for certain - he should see some regular action against MLB pitching this spring, which should help to begin to settle the question about whether or not he projects as a major league hitter.



Where will Lourdes Gurriel start the season?
   Last week, Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim said that Gurriel, who can play several positions, is most comfortable at Short Stop, but could play Left Field as well.  He has not faced live pitching since 2015, of course, so his ultimate landing spot come April will be dependent on how well and how quickly he can scrape the rust off this spring.
   If he does in fact play short, there is the issue of where Richard Urena would start the season. It's hard to see Gurriel in Buffalo, but Urena seems ticketed for a return to New Hampshire for at least half a season. The club will likely let Gurriel dictate his timeline this season.  It will be interesting to see where he's headed when camp breaks.



Will Reese McGuire develop some pop to go along with his elite defensive skills?
   There is no doubt that McGuire will develop into an elite receiver.  His handling of pitchers, blocking and framing skills, and incredible pop time and accurate arm are already superb.  One scout said last summer that McGuire was far and away the best defensive Catcher he had seen in the minors that year.
   The question will be about his bat.  He has shown an ability to put the ball in play, and the potential for power is there, but it has yet to manifest itself (McGuire has hit 4 Home Runs in almost 1400 PAs).
   One source suggested that the Blue Jays were looking at McGuire as a candidate to back up Russell Martin this season, but the signing of Jarrod Saltalamacchia has all but put an end to that.
   The best plan for McGuire will be to continue to develop, likely in Buffalo.  There have been suggestions that his lack of power stems from a relatively flat swing plane.  Kim said that when they acquire a player, the Blue Jays are in no rush to make drastic changes to his game.  With Instructs behind and a full spring ahead of him, maybe the club's hitting instructors will have time to help him develop more loft, which could result in more hard contact.



   There will be other interesting storylines that develop at the minor league complex, but these seem to be the most likely.

Blue Jays Prospects Likely to Make a Spring Training Impact

   Teams invite their top prospects to Major League training for a whole host of reasons.  The main purpose is to expose the youngsters to MLB life, and to give them a sense of not only how close they are to making it, but what it takes from a physical and mental point of view to get there - and stay there.
    Prospects tend to be brought along slowly in spring training, with their playing time in the first few weeks restricted to late-inning duty, when the regulars have finished their work for the day.  Playing against fellow prospects and fringe MLBers, some shine, while others show that there is still work to do.  When minor league spring training opens in late February, many of these players are sent back for further seasoning.

   In 2015, little was expected from prospects Miguel Castro or Roberto Osuna.  Castro had a breakout 2014, but had not pitched above A ball.  Given his difficulties with his secondary pitches, and openings in the Blue Jays bullpen, he was moved into relief and showed well in his first few late-inning outings, and continued to pitch well when rosters were pared, and he parlayed that into an Opening Day job with the big club. Osuna, whose 2014 was limited to a handful of innings after coming back from Tommy John surgery, fared well in the Arizona Fall League, and while his repertoire and advanced feel for pitching projected him as a starter, he too found work in the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen when the season opened.

  There tend to be two waves of impact prospects in spring training.  The first consists of players who were invited to spring training, and the second is comprised of players who weren't originally invited, but as the spring wears on and more bodies are needed, have earned their way into some MLB action.

Here, in the order of probable impact, are the players who could be worth watching on your tv or computer this spring after the regulars have been removed from the starting lineup, starting with the first wave.

1.  Anthony Alford
   This will actually be Alford's third spring with the big club.  In the summer of 2014, he turned down a contract extension offer, and returned to school for another season of college football.  Sensing that his future might not lie on the gridiron, he packed in his pro football dreams to become a full-time baseball player.  A sizeable contract offer which included an invite to spring training likely helped to change his mind.
   Alford was in awe and very over-matched in 2015 spring training....

@Clutchlings77 I totally agree

— Anthony Alford (@ajalfor1) March 6, 2015

.... but he took some of the lessons he learned to the minors, and ended the year as a Top 100 prospect.  Even despite a sideways 2016, he showed well against advanced competition in the Arizona Fall League, and he should stand out more this year.  Alford is still developing his offensive skills, but he works the count, uses the whole field, and has game-changing speed.  If he's used in those late-game situations early in spring training, Alford should make an impact.

2.  Conner Greene
   As spring training progresses, the need for pitching tends to increase as teams try to monitor the innings of players most likely to break camp with team.  Greene was part of the second wave last year, and was impressive, striking out three of the four hitters he faced in his debut.
   After a breakout 2015, Greene appeared headed to AA New Hampshire, putting him on the cusp of the major leaguers.  Management felt otherwise, sending him back to High A Dunedin to work on his fastball command and between-starts routine.  Greene is a free spirit, and this pumping the brakes on his development was probably a signal to him that his emotional maturation wasn't complete.
   Greene returned to New Hampshire last August, and didn't miss a beat.  He likely will open the season with the Fisher Cats again, but his fastball, which can touch 98, should allow him to overpower the fellow prospects he'll be facing in early spring training.  It will be interesting to see how he fares if he's given some starts this spring, when he'll be facing major league hitters.

3.  Rowdy Tellez
   Slow starts are almost a Tellez trademark.  He hit .107/.286/.143 in his first month of pro ball in 2013, was 6 for his first 37 ABs the following year, and .164/.345/.361 last April.   If there's one thing he's proved that he's capable of, however, it's making adjustments, and it's easy to see him hitting some long blasts in late-game action this spring if he sees any strikes.  He should make the move to a starting role fairly quickly this spring, however, as the Blue Jays try to determine his MLB-readiness.

4.  Glenn Sparkman
   Sparkman is not officially an invitee, because he was selected in the Rule 5 draft in November.  If he makes the team out of spring training, he has to stay on the 40-man roster for the entire season; if not, he has to be offered back to his original team (Kansas City).  A successful starter before his Tommy John surgery, Sparkman was working his way back last year.  The Blue Jays likely feel that he could be this year's Joe Biagini, and he probably will be put into high leverage situations fairly early this spring.

5.  Richie Urena
   He may be the Blue Jays top prospect, according to some rankings, but Urena is not about to supplant starting SS Troy Tulowitzki just yet.  Still, his gap power and fast-twitch reflexes at short may bring fans out of their seats several times this spring before he heads to minor league camp.

Clutchlings photo

6..  Reese McGuire
   If you can believe much of what you read online, the Blue Jays are considering McGuire as a potential back up to Russ Martin this year.  His glove may be MLB-ready, but his bat probably is not.  McGuire can control a running game like few others, and he may make an impact early with this ability to throw runners out with his elite pop time and strong, accurate arm.


The Next Wave
   There's no guarantee any of the following will see any time in an MLB uniform this spring - no one has that kind of crystal ball.  Still, due to injuries or a need for some extra days off, openings occur in spring training, and if these players continue to develop this spring on the same trajectory that they did last year, it's conceivable that they could see some playing time.

1.  Sean Reid-Foley
    SRF, like Greene, had some adjustments to make last year in consistently finding the strike zone last year, and like Greene, may have a sizzling spring training debut.  If he can continue to harness his fastball command like he did in the second half last year, Reid-Foley is the top starting prospect in the organization. He has no chance of breaking camp with the team, but may make catching the late innings of games this March worth your while.

2.  Angel Perdomo
   The 6"8" lefty with the easy delivery and electric fastball was left off the 40-man roster last fall.  The Blue Jays gambled that they could sneak him past the Rule 5 draft.  Perdomo needs to refine his command and develop his secondaries more, but he could be lights out in short relief stints with a pared-down arsenal.

Baseball America photo

3.  Ryan Borucki
   Borucki made a comeback from arm and shoulder injuries in 2016, and was added to the 40-man in November.  He has the best change up in the system, and his development may take off this year.  In a late spring cameo, the depth of that change might be on display, and would likely disrupt hitters' timing.

4.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr
   This is really going out on a limb, admittedly.  If he had been born stateside, Jr would be entering into his draft-eligible year.  Instead, he's a Top 100 prospect, and will likely be a Top 10 by season's end.  With the Lansing Lugnuts, Guerrero's likely Opening Day assignment, starting Midwest League play later the following week at nearby Midland, MI, it would be fairly easy to get him there after travelling with the big team to Montreal for a pair of exhibition games with the Pirates to open April.  He might be over-matched, but his plate appearances would be cause for standing ovations on his dad's former home field.

5.  Danny Jansen
   He may have been lost a bit in the shuffle.  McGuire is the organization's top Catching prospect at the moment, and no doubt some attention will be paid over at the minor league complex to Max Pentecost's return behind the plate this spring, but if you had to build a prototypical Catcher, you would likely start with Jansen.
   Even though injuries have curtailed three of his first four pro seasons, Jansen has already drawn raves for his defensive abilities.  The power potential is there, and he more than held his own in the Arizona Fall League.  A late spring cameo could enhance his prospect status.


6.  Jonathan Davis
   Not to be confused with the under-achieving 2012 first rounder, DJ Davis, this Davis has turned in a pair of quality minor league seasons the past two seasons in A ball. With Dunedin last year, he was 2nd in the Florida State League in steals, 3rd in walks, and 5th in OBP.  Davis should flank Alford in New Hampshire.  The 5'8"/190 power plug added 14 HR in the pitcher-friendly FSL last year, and his speed/power/on-base combination might be on display with the big club late in the spring if an opportunity arises.


   Blue Jays minor leaguers report to camp in Dunedin on February 27th.  After the first week, they are placed into groupings that loosely resemble their likely Opening Day destinations, although the groupings can be flexible.  Buffalo announced a 14-game schedule against other International League teams housed in the Tampa area.  A group of players representing New Hampshire usually accompanies them, playing other AA teams on adjoining diamonds.   If you are in the area, it's worth the short drive to some of the other minor league complexes to watch two games at once.

Blue Jays Minor League Updates

Tim Leiper photo

   A couple of tidbits as we close in on the opening of MLB spring training, and the MiLB version a few weeks later.

Burns signs with Lotte
   Andy Burns was given his release so that he could sign with the Lotte Giants of the KBO.  Burns appeared in 10 games with the Blue Jays in 2016, going hitless in 7 plate appearances.  He was removed from the 40-man roster in November.
   An 11th round pick in 2011, Burns' versatility helped move him up the minor league ladder.  Originally a SS, Burns can play all four infield positions, as well as the corner outfield spots.  He told his hometown Coloradan, he's excited about the prospect playing in baseball-crazy South Korea:

"They absolutely love baseball over there," said Burns, who will leave for South Korea near the end of January. "It's going to be a really fun baseball atmosphere. I'm excited to get over there."

  Burns reportedly signed a one-year deal with Lotte, and may return to play stateside in 2018.

Hollon Released
   Word came via Vancouver freelancer Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey on Twitter) when he tweeted from the Canadians annual Hot Stove luncheon that Blue Jays Minor League Coordinator Charlie Wilson informed him that RHP Clinton Hollon has been released.
   To say that the 2013 2nd rounder has a checkered past would be putting it mildly.  Considered to be in possession of a first-round arm, concerns about his elbow and his makeup caused him to fall to the 2nd round, where he signed for below slot.  Hollon underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, and missed the entire season.  He came back impressively in 2015, pitching well for Vancouver and Lansing, before receiving a 50-game suspension in late August for a positive PED (amphetamines) test.  Then, just before he was set to return to action in late May, he received another 50-game penalty for a positive test for a drug of abuse.
   The Blue Jays stood by Hollon, and invited him to Instructs last fall.  Obviously, somewhere along the way the club felt that his mental and/or physical approach to the game was lacking, which is why they decided to release him.  The club has shown little tolerance for recreational drug use in the past, sending prospects Tyler Gonzales and Kramer Champlin packing after positive tests.
   You can't help but feel for Hollon, but at the same time, he likely was given ample opportunity to redeem himself, and failed to do so.  He denied knowingly taking amphetamines, which probably did not enamour him to the organization.  Given his electric arm, there still likely will be a team that will given him another chance.

Six Prospects Invited to Spring Training with the Big Club
  In addition to recent 40-man additions Richie Urena and Anthony Alford, six prospects were invited to the Blue Jays Major League training camp when it opens next month.
   Extending invitations to these players gives them a valuable experience from several perspectives.  Not only do they get to practice with and compete against MLB players and play in front of MLB spring training crowds, they get an opportunity to see the work ethic that propelled those MLB players to their team's 25-man rosters.  Alford was invited to his first spring training in 2015, and said that he learned a lot about preparation and how to conduct himself from watching Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista.  RHP Conner Greene was expected to begin last year at AA New Hampshire after spending the final month of the 2015 season there, but the club felt that he needed to work on his routine between starts, so he returned to High A Dunedin to start 2016.  He did improve on that routine, and no doubt his invitation was meant to serve as another lesson in his baseball education.

  Joining Greene will be 1B Rowdy Tellez, C Reese McGuire, OF Dwight Smith Jr, 2B Jon Berti, and relievers Will Browning and Tim Mayza.  Of this group, only Tellez might have a shot at breaking camp with the big team, although barring further roster moves, he appears headed for AAA Buffalo to start the season. Mayza and Browning are on the verge of joining the decent corps of relievers the Blue Jays have stockpiled in the upper levels of the system.  There have been some who suggest that Greene might be in line for a bullpen job this spring, but while his command issues would be likely improved if his repertoire of pitches was cut down in a relief role, the organization still views him as a starter.

  There was some concern last year that the Blue Jays minor league hitters did not get enough reps in spring training, and it caused some teams (New Hampshire, in particular) to get off to a slow start.   While having hitters in camp like Tellez is beneficial for them, it can also take away from their actual playing time, and it will be interesting to see how long they stay in camp before being shipped to the minor league complex this spring.

MLB Draft Order Set
   The Orioles' signing of Mark Trumbo took care of the last remaining free agent with compensation attached, meaning that the order for the June MLB draft has now been set.
   The Blue Jays will get the 22nd pick, as well as the 28th pick as compensation for the loss of free agent Edwin Encarnacion.  While the loss of Encarnacion hurts, the chance to pick two players in the top 30 could bode well for the future of the organization.  It might also give the team a chance to roll the dice with one of those two picks - they could play it safe with a proven college bat or arm with one, and take a chance on a high school player with high upside but equally high risk with the other.  Either way, it will help a system on the rebound add some more depth.

Is it Time for Rowdy?

MiLB.com photo

   One of the joys of writing about baseball prospects takes place when the team you follow lands a player in the late rounds of the June amateur draft that even though he was highly ranked, fell in the draft because of a college commitment.
    Rowdy Tellez, for me, was perhaps the ultimate late-round choice by the Jays.
    A batting-practice legend on the Showcase Circuit as a high schooler, Tellez was thought to be headed to USC after his senior season.  Taking advantage of new rules regarding slot values in the 2013 draft, GM Alex Anthopoulos and his Amateur Scouting Director Blake Parker found a way around the slots, drafting low-leverage college seniors in rounds 4 through 10  (except for California HS P Conner Greene) , and offering them slim bonuses (Matt Boyd, traded to the Tigers as part of the David Price deal, received a $75 000 bonus as a 6th rounder: Chad Girodo, taken in the 9th round, signed for a $5 000 bonus.  The Blue Jays used those savings to sign Tellez, who they took with their 30th round pick,  at a bonus of $750 000.


   The Blue Jays have taken Tellez' development slowly and steadily, giving him two years in short season ball before starting him in full season at Lansing in 2015.  The knock against him prior to the draft was that he was a base-clogging, one dimensional slugger, but Tellez has worked hard at many aspects of his game to become more of an all-around player, and his time in short season allowed him to sand off the rough edges.
   Tellez checked in at about 275 lbs when he left high school, but through a dedicated regimen of nutrition and conditioning, he now weighs 245.  Tellez admitted that he knew little about how to eat properly, or even prepare his own food until recently, but has come a long way in that regard.
   As for improving his defence, Tellez has worked on his agility, and infield coordinator Mike Mordecai worked extensively with him on his footwork and positioning around 1st base over the past two seasons. Tellez may not remind anyone of Wes Parker, but he has upgraded his skills tremendously.  "Everybody is confident in throwing the ball over to me and pitchers don’t worry about ground balls hit to me," he told Fangraphs' David Laurila. "Defense is what I’ve worked on the most. I’ve worked on it day in, day out."
   At the plate is where Tellez excels.  His strike zone management was what convinced the organization that he could handle the jump to AA this year after only one season of A ball.  And he has modelled himself after major leaguers like Adrian Gonzalez and Anthony Rizzo when it comes to his approach with two strikes.  He told Laurila:

 I look at how easy Gonzalez swings and I’ve adopted a little bit of what Rizzo does with two strikes. He takes out his leg kick and works on driving the ball the other way. He knows he can hit home runs to all fields, even with a two-strike approach and not having the leg kick. That’s what I’m doing now. If you can eliminate strikeouts… it’s a huge game-changer.

 Tellez' spray chart from 2016 would seem to bear that out.  Half of his doubles were to the opposite field (while only 1 Home Run was):

   Tellez got off to a rocky start with New Hampshire in 2016, and was hitting only .164 at the end of April. Some of that could be attributed to the fact that he saw very few pitches to hit over that opening month, with ABs like these being fairly typical:

   

   

       Despite seeing few strikes and even fewer fastballs, Tellez still posted a .345 OBP for April.  As the weather heated up, so did Tellez and his Fisher Cats teammates, with his OPS climbing every month, culminating in a 1.046 mark for August.  In his first year of AA ball, where he was one of the youngest players in the league, Tellez managed 54 extra-base hits, and posted an impressive 12.4% walk rate.

   With Edwin Encarnacion gone, and Jose Bautista seemingly set to follow, there may be a looming power shortage in the Blue Jays lineup.  Kendrys Morales' approach and swing may be far more suited to the Rogers Centre than many fans would realize, and Steve Pearce's value and versatility can't be understated, but barring a move in the New Year to bolster the starting lineup, it appears that maybe the Blue Jays are leaning toward Tellez earning a 25-man roster spot this spring.  The ideal plan would be fore him to receive at least a half season of AAA experience, but it's not unusual for a player to bypass that level once he's proven himself in AA, either.
   Tellez is what he is:  a bat-first player, who will not get any faster or more agile as he ages.  But just as Encarnacion worked hard to become at least an adequate 1st Baseman, so has Tellez, and he has shown the work ethic that makes one think that he could continue to improve his defensive skills.  He profiles as a put-the-ball-in-play, make the pitcher work (I've been charting his ABs for the first few weeks of the 2016 season, and have him at just over 5 pitches/PA), use the whole field, and change the approach with two strikes kind of hitter that this lineup proved to be sorely lacking down the stretch last year and into the ALCS.  There is some thought that the slight hitch in his swing might be exploited by MLB pitchers, but this is a player that has made adjustments throughout his career (despite a 1-37 stretch in 2014 with Bluefield, he still finished with a .293/.358/.424 line), and considering his strike zone judgement, will likely continue to do so.  Whether or not it happens this April, at mid-season, or in 2018, Tellez should be a fixture in the middle of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.

   Tellez' swing has remained largely the same since this BP session in high school:

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

   2016 was a year of steady, if not spectacular growth in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system.
After former GM Alex Anthopoulos dealt 18 prospects to improve the major league roster in an eight-month period, the system was bound to go through a dry spell.
   The good news is that there was some talent in the lower levels of the system that showed encouraging signs; the bad news is that there's still a lack of upper-level depth - there are no Blue Jays prospects in Baseball America's Top 50, and only 3 in the back end of the Top 100.
   The new Mark Shapiro-Ross Atkins regime opted to pump the brakes somewhat on the development of prospects.  Promotions were still in the offing, but this is an organization that now opts for a slow but steady approach to bringing a prospect through the system.  It's not likely we will see a player sail through three or four levels in a season, as Dalton Pompey, Daniel Norris, and Kendall Graveman did in 2014, anytime soon. The message to prospects was clear:  you will not be rushed, nor will you make it to the next level until you've checked all the boxes on your list of skills to improve.
   The club's draft philosophy, in what turned out to be Brian Parker's last as head of amateur scouting, took a shift in direction.  After showing a preference for projectable athletes (ie, high school pitchers), the team dipped into the college ranks, taking collegians with 5 of their first 6 picks.  This may have been in the interest of re-stocking the system quickly after Anthopoulos raided the cupboard last year, or it may indicate a desire to go with safer, more polished players who are closer to MLB-ready.  The addition of former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, who will help oversee player development, is a huge boost to the organization, and will no doubt bring some of his advanced player evaluation methods to the club.
   The system is no longer among the bottom in terms of rankings, but it's not near the top, either.

 


1.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr  3B
ETA:  late 2019, early 2020
Future Outlook  impact, middle of the order bat
Calling Card:  advanced strike zone judgement, Home Run Derby power

   A year ago, I was hard pressed to include a 16-year old who had never stepped on a professional field in the Top 10 list, and placed him at the back end.
   Now, after watching him handle Appalachian League pitching very well as a 17 year old, I am all in.  In naming him the Appy League's top prospect, despite being the loop's youngest player, Baseball America said:

Guerrero showed elite hard-hit ability, consistently squaring up pitches and covering the plate well. He shows plus bat speed, natural timing in the box, an understanding of the strike zone and an ability to recognize and track offspeed pitches.

   It's early, and there are hurdles for the young slugger to face, but he is already shaping up as possibly the best hitting prospect the organization has ever produced.
  Vlad Jr has shown strike zone judgement (12% walk rate), bat speed (he slugged .449), and an ability to use the whole field:

MLBfarm.com

   That's three ingredients for future success.

   The biggest concerns about Guerrero heading into 2016 were his bulky build, and his ultimate position.  While he'll never be a 30-30 guy like his Dad (he will draw more walks than his Father did, though), Vlad Jr stole 15 bases in 20 attempts, which owed more to base running smarts than it did outright speed, but demonstrated another facet of his game.

   Reports on Guerrero at the hot corner suggested that he was at least adequate in terms of range, footwork, and hands, and has the arm strength to stick there a while longer.  He'll continue to work on his skills at 3rd during Fall Instructional League.

   Guerrero hit .271 and had an .808 OPS - a late season swoon in which he went 3-25 dropped his numbers, but this is a player who more than held his own in his first pro season against players 3-4 years older than him.  If he grew up stateside, Vlad Jr would just be heading into his senior year of high school. Much has been made of his build, which leaned toward the slightly chubby side when he signed, but reports indicate that like Rowdy Tellez and Roberto Osuna before him, Guerrero is slowly transforming his body through training and nutrition.

    I wasn't convinced a year ago, but I'm more than convinced now.  This is a middle-of-the-order, impact bat in the making.  Guerrero has said he wants to be in the majors before he turns 20, and while the club will want to take things gradually with him, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him there by then.  Expect Guerrero to spend next season with Lansing.  He may take a bit of a step back at the start of the season with the colder weather and the more polished pitchers in the Midwest League, but there's every reason to believe he'll adjust.  This is a kid who skipped both the DSL and the GCL; there's some maturity there.
   With his soon to be Hall of Famer Dad in attendance, Jr knocked his first round tripper in his second pro game:

2.  Rowdy Tellez  1B
ETA:  late 2017, early 2018
Future Outlook:  middle of the order bat
Calling Card:  not a one-dimensional slugger; gets on base, uses the whole field.

   It's Rowdy time!
   I have been an enthusiastic fan of the oversized slugger since his first pro season.  The organization has patiently moved him through the system, and he has responded to every challenge.
   Sent to AA New Hampshire to start the season (when several of his fellow prospects were sent back to Dunedin for more seasoning) because of his advanced feel for the strike zone, Tellez did not see a lot of strikes in April, as pitchers avoided him and preferred to pitch to his slow-starting Fisher Cats teammates. Tellez did not expand his strike zone that month, and stayed patient, hitting only .164, but posting a .345 OBP.  As his teammates heated up, so did Tellez, and he put up solid numbers: .297/.387/.917, with 23 Homers, finishing 3rd in the Eastern League in Slugging and OPS.
   What has always impressed me the most about Tellez is that he's more than a one-dimensional slugger. There have always been concerns about his lack of speed and his fielding, but he has done as much as any player in the organization to transform his body and become more agile.  And while there's 30-Homer potential there, Tellez does not go up to the plate swinging from the heels, telling David Lauria of Fangraphs:

“I’ve watched a lot of guys over the years. The two I’ve really narrowed it down to watching — dissecting their swings and approaches — are Adrian Gonzalez and Anthony Rizzo. I look at how easy Gonzalez swings and I’ve adopted a little bit of what Rizzo does with two strikes. He takes out his leg kick and works on driving the ball the other way. He knows he can hit home runs to all fields, even with a two-strike approach and not having the leg kick. That’s what I’m doing now. If you can eliminate strikeouts… it’s a huge game-changer."

   The plan for Tellez is to begin the year with Buffalo in 2017, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and suggest that if the Blue Jays are unable to re-sign Edwin Encarnacion, and he has a decent spring, Tellez could break camp with the big club as the starting 1st Baseman next year.  Replacing Edwing's bat in the lineup will be a tall order, but Tellez could offer the club a player that gets on base, puts the ball in play, and isn't afraid to change his approach with two strikes.
   It's easy to picture this smooth left-handed stroke in the Rogers Centre:

3.  Anthony Alford OF
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook  Kenny Lofton-like lead off hitter
Calling Card:  game-changing speed and developing gap power

  2015 was a breakout year for the former two-sport star, who gave up his gridiron dreams in the fall of 2014 to focus on baseball after three years of part-time play since being drafted in the 3rd round of 2012. After a solid half season at Dunedin at the end of last season, it was reasonable to expect Alford would start at New Hampshire.  Not so fast, said the organization, recognizing his relative baseball inexperience, and the need to improve his pitch recognition and strike zone judgement, sending him back to the D-Jays to open the season.
   Injured in a home-plate collision on Dunedin's opening day, and put on the shelf again six weeks later with a concussion suffered in an outfield collision, Alford's first half was pretty much a wipeout.
   And that's not a bad thing.  Almost all successful prospects have to go through some adversity on their way up the ladder, and this year was the Mississippian's turn.  The bad times can be more instructive than the good times.
   After a .200/.277/.256 first half, Alford was finally healthy by July, and turned things around, posting a .257/.381/.449 line.  Alford's 117 strikeouts have to be a concern to the organization, although his K rate was 37% in the first half, when he was in and out of the lineup, and only 25% in the second, when he was a fixture atop the D-Jays' batting order.  The 7 Home Runs he hit in the 2nd half hint at some developing power.
   Alford has always trusted his ability, and he has learned to put failure on the field into perspective, as he told Milb.com:

"I'm just learning, learning more about myself. This season has been a good learning season for me because I've never had to deal with failure. I've failed a lot this year. I guess that's something I needed to go through," he said. "I'm not afraid to fail because I know myself and I know my ability and my mind-set. I'm going to overcome it and I'm going to make the adjustment because that's just who I am as an athlete."

   Even though he stole only 18 bases in 24 attempts after swiping 27 a year ago, Alford still profiles as a top of the order bat with game-changing speed.  He works the count well, and the club is hoping that he will learn not to expand his strike zone so much with two strikes to help cut down on the whiffs. That the organization still views him as a top prospect is evidenced by the fact that he was selected to play in the Arizona Fall League, where he will make up for some missed playing time, and hone his skills against top competition.  Alford will begin 2017 in New Hampshire, where he should regain much of his former prospect lustre.
   The Florida State League is a black hole for streaming video, so we'll have to make do with some clouds of dust as Alford triples for Lansing in 2015:

4.  Sean Reid-Foley  RHP
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook:  #2 or #3 starter; innings eater
Calling Card:  95 mph fastball with command to both sides of the plate

   The 2014 2nd rounder impressed many in his first year of full season ball last year, and after splitting time between Dunedin and Lansing last year, it was a bit of a surprise that he started the year in Michigan.
   But the new management team sent a clear message across the organization that promotion to the next level isn't automatic, and is contingent upon a prospect working on a number of things.
   And for Reid-Foley, that thing was commanding his fastball to both sides of the plate.
   As I wrote earlier this year, Reid-Foley came into 2016 with a new, simplified delivery.  First implemented at Instructs of Fall 2015, the new mechanics were meant to simplify things, and help Reid-Foley find a delivery that he could repeat consistently.  In 2015, he would lose the strike zone almost without warning during a game that he was cruising along in, and scouts noted that he lacked the experience to make the mechanical adjustments that would help him re-discover it, driving up his pitch count, and hastening his exit from the game.
  Reid-Foley fanned 59 in 58 innings in his first 11 starts with Lansing, with only 22 walks, earning a return trip to Dunedin, where he struck out a career-high 12 over 7 innings in his first start.  In his next start, he fanned only 3 thru 6, but more impressive was that he didn't walk a batter - in 57 innings with the D-Jays, he whiffed 71, while walking only 16.   His season would have been even more impressive had he not been shut down for the rest of the season after August 10th.  Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim told Sportsnet's Shi Davidi that it was for precautionary reasons:

"You always want to be conservative or cautious with pitchers and elbows. He returned to throwing three weeks ago, he’s doing fine, he feels great. It was more precautionary than anything. He had a great season, made a lot of positive strides, and we didn’t want to push anything there, although he wanted to pitch."

   Reid-Foley is a power pitcher who missed a lot of bats with his 93-95 fastball and wipeout slider.  Sent to Instructs once again, he'll try to refine command of his changeup.  There once were comparisons to Jonathan Papelbon, but Reid-Foley has demonstrated an ability to turn over a lineup, and now is the most promising starting pitcher in the organization.  Only three years out of high school, he will continue his slow but steady climb up the ladder at New Hampshire next year.

   SRF from 2015 displaying his swing-and-miss stuff:

5.  Richard Urena SS
ETA:  late 2017, early 2018
Future Outlook:  steady defensive middle infielder
Calling Card:  surprising pop - more than just a glove

   In July of 2012, the Blue Jays secured the services of the two highest-rated shortstops of the International free agent class.  Urena and Venezuelan Franklin Barreto moved up the lower levels of the organization in lock step, with Barreto usually a level ahead of Urena.  The consensus was that Barreto's defensive skill set was best suited to another position, and that Urena proejcted as a better defensive player, but when the two briefly played together in Vancouver in 2014, Barreto played short, and Urena played 3rd.
  That off season, when then-GM Alex Anthopoulos was in the midst of putting together a deal to acquire Josh Donaldson from Oakland, he had to decide which of the two youngsters was the team's shortstop of the future.
  He chose Urena.
  To be honest, I was disappointed that the club let Barreto go after winning the Northwest League MVP at the age of 18, but you have to give up something to get something, and one can hardly argue with the results of that deal.
   And Urena, who had been regarded as a defence-first player, has done nothing but hit in the ensuing two seasons, and actually out hit Barreto this year (.295/.334/.434 vs  .284/.342/.422) - Barreto spent much of his year in AA, while Urena was promoted to that level in August.
   Urena is a slick fielder, with quick twitch reactions.  The knock against his defensive skills was his tendency to nonchalant routine plays, a knack which he has cut back drastically on.  After starting the year at Dunedin (where he was named a Florida State League All Start despite missing the final month of the season), he was promoted to New Hampshire in August after putting up a .305/.351/.447 line, and he was a hit in the Eastern League, going 7-14 in his first three games, and demonstrating his speed and gap power with a pair of triples, and three more in a game a week later.
   Urena is aggressive at the plate, and jumps on fastballs early in the game.  He's shown improved plate discipline, and cut down on his strikeout totals from last year.  His swing from the right side has been a work in progress, and still needs further refining, although he posted respectable numbers.  In naming him their top Blue Jays mid-season prospect, MLB Pipeline noted:

Urena also made significant progress on defense last season by making only 23 errors in 120 games at shortstop, after he committed 40 in 119 games between his first two pro seasons. He has the tools to stick at the position, with soft hands, clean actions and plus arm strength. Urena may be a ways away from making an impact at the highest level, but he shows the makings of an everyday shortstop capable of hitting for some average and 15-20 homers in a given season.

  He has kind of gotten lost in the ascendancy of Tellez, SRF, and Guerrero, but Urena is on the verge of being MLB-ready.   While Troy Tulowitzki shows no signs of slowing down, he's Tulo's eventual successor at short.  With Tellez, Urena, and Greene in the lineup next year, AAA Buffalo will be a team worth watching.
  Urena triples for his first AA hit in August:

6.  Conner Greene RHP
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook: mid rotation starter
Calling Card:  pounder of the lower half of the strike zone
 
   Greene caught a heavy dose of helium last year, in his first campaign of full season ball, beginning the year at Lansing, and finishing at New Hampshire.  Invited to MLB spring training, he had a successful debut, and appeared set to step back on that rocket ride to the top.
   Except like Reid-Foley, he still had things to work on, and was sent back to Dunedin, fastball command and his secondaries being the items in question.  Kim also told Sportsnet's Davidi that there were some things he needed to work on between starts:

This year he worked on his five-day routine … becoming more consistent, whether it’s side sessions, or long toss, locking everything in with the same focus he has on the mound. Those are areas of his game that have improved.

   By mid-season, Greene was back in AA, and seemed to alternate lights out appearances with ones in which he was knocked around.  He did throw six innings of no-hit ball in one mid-August start.  Greene sits 92-94 with his fastball, and has a change that is particularly effective.  He did not miss as many bats this year as he did last year (2016 on the top, 2015 on the bottom).....

 
      ....but he did generate more ground ball outs, evidence of his success in keeping his pitches down in the zone.
   There is a tendency to think that Greene took a slight step backward in his development this year if you make that kind of judgement based solely on his numbers.  Still, he is young (he turned 21 as the season opened in April), but this was truly a year of refinement for the athletic righthander.  It's easy to look solely at a prospect's numbers for a given season and ignore the body of work and the ongoing adjustments that were part of it.  Even after a breakout season in 2015, there was still room for improvement.  Greene may begin the year at New Hampshire, but should see Buffalo by season's end.

   

7.  Jon Harris RHP
ETA: 2018
Future Outlook: durable back of the rotation arm
Calling Card:  lots of groundball outs
   During the Alex Anthopoulos era, the Blue Jays showed a preference for drafting athletic high school pitchers who may not have always been at the top of the scouting lists, but fit a profile that promised future projection.  HS pitchers have always been among the biggest gambles in the draft, but the Blue Jays shunned tradition, with the goal of getting those athletes into the system as soon as possible in order to overhaul just about every aspect of their pitching profile.
   One of those was a 6'2/150 pitcher from surburban St Louis who was so skinny he probably had to run around in the shower to get wet named Jon Harris, in the 33rd round.  Harris opted to attend Missouri State, and the Blue Jays were ecstatic when his name was still on the board three years later when it came time to make their first overall pick at number 29.  Harris had grown to 6'4"/190, and had become one of the top collegiate pitchers in the nation.
   His first summer in pro ball was not a successful one, however, as Harris struggled with this command at Vancouver, missing the plate on many occasions, or finding too much of it on others.  There was talk that Harris was worn down from a long NCAA season, but there were also suggestions that his delivery, which had a lot of moving parts, was to blame.  A major re-make of hs mechanics was in store during Instructs, and you can see the results from one of his final college outings to one with Lansing this spring. The deliveries are similar, but his hands rise over his head in the bottom one, leading to a more deliberate motion, and a less awkward finish, leaving him in a better fielding positon:


via GIPHY

via GIPHY

   Harris was also taught the grip for a four-seam change up to go along with his four-seam fastball, and the results were impressive.  Sent to Lansing to start the season, Harris gave up an unearned run in his second start, then allowed no runs over his next six starts, a span of 32 innings.  In each of his final two starts, he struck out 11 in 7 innings, both career highs.  Harris was promoted to Dunedin in late July.
  Harris offers a four pitch mix, with his fastball, slider and change having been graded as potential plus pitches.  He sits 92-94 with that fastball, which has some heavy sink to it when he's on, leading to a lot of ground balls.  He commented during the season that keeping weight on was an issue for him throughout high school and college, but he's managed to pack on some pounds and strength.  Harris projects as an inning-eating back of the rotation arm, and he likely will repeat Dunedin next year for at least a half season.
 
8.  Max Pentecost C
ETA:  2019
Future Outlook:  Russell Martin's heir apparent
Calling Card:  plus athleticism, translating to success at the plate and on the basepaths
 
   When Pentecost took to the field (as a DH, actually) for Lansing, it marked his first game in almost two years.  Shut down after only 25 games with Vancouver after being drafted 11th overall by the Blue Jays in 2014, it took three surgeries to properly repair his throwing shoulder.
   Pentecost was limited to DH duties all year, but continued to work on his receiving skills on the sideline, and will continue to do so at Instructs.  The plan is to have him back behind the plate by spring training, meaning that 2017 will be a huge year for Pentecost.  It usually takes several hundred minor league games to develop a catcher, but Pentecost may have to cram a lot into a few years.
  For now, the big club is set with Russell Martin signed for 3 more seasons, and the acquisition of Reese McGuire this summer has helped to shore up a position that was becoming dangerously thin in the organization.  This buys Pentecost some valuable development time.
   Pentecost has a compact swing, and sprays the ball to all fields.  He is not the prototypical lumbering, base-clogging Catcher - he was labelled one of the best athletes in his draft class.  He showed some pop (10 Homers between Dunedin and Lansing - two tough HR parks - in just over 300 PAs), but his 32% K rate is on the high side for a guy with good speed.  Some of that may have been due to rust, but Pentecost needs to put the ball in play more.
    Pentecost will likely start the season at Dunedin, with a possible move to AA by mid-season.
In this video clip, Pentecost shows both his power and speed:

9.  T.J Zeuch RHP
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook: mid-rotation starter
Calling Card:  heavy fastball that bores in on right-handed hitters
   Zeuch missed the first month of his college season with a groin injury, and because his Pitt Panthers were eliminated from NCAA play in May, the 1st round pick didn't pitch until early July.  So, we didn't see a lot of the 6'7" righty.
   But rest assured, we will see plenty next year.
   Zeuch made 6 starts for Vancouver and Lansing, usually limited to around 75 pitches per outing.  He sat 92-94 with his fastball, and will no doubt be working on his secondary pitches at Instructs.
   With his size, Zeuch gets late life on his fastball, which gets in on hitters in a hurry.  He has a fair amount of sinking movement on his sinker, and his slider is probably his best off-speed pitch.  In his time with Vancouver, he missed bats, and generated a lot of weak contact:

   Zeuch will return to Lansing to start 2016.  Even though his mechanics may not need as much refining as did Harris', chances are we'll see a different Zeuch next season.  

10.  Bo Bichette SS/2B
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook:  power-hitting 2B
Calling Card:  elite bat speed

   The 2nd round pick this year laid waste to GCL pitching, putting up a video game-like line of .427/.451/.732 despite missing over a month after an emergency appendectomy in July.
   Almost any GCL stats should come with a disclaimer (his brother Dante hit .342/.446/.505 there in 2011, but hasn't hit above .271 since then), but it's hard not to be impressed with Bichette's approach, and the number of balls he squared up in Florida.
   Drafted as a SS, Bichette will be given a chance to stick there, but he will likely wind up at 2nd or possibly 3rd if his power continues to develop.  He has some of the fast-twitch reflexes necessary to play short, but his arm can be erratic. Scouts were concerned about his hitting mechanics prior to the draft, particularly his set-up, but it's hard to argue with the results.
   Our good internet friend Chris King, who evaluates pro and amateur players and lives not far from the Jays minor league complex, was impressed:

@brendonkuhn @CharlieCaskey easily best bat I've seen this year and having the most impact of any bat I've ever seen at this level

— Chris King (@StatsKing) July 16, 2016

   As an added bonus, Bichette and his brother Dante Jr were able to suit up for Brazil in their World Baseball Classic Qualifier in Brooklyn this past week.  Playing SS, Bichette showed both his upside and inexperience.  In one inning, he deftly fielded a groundball on the short hop, throwing across his body on the run to nip the runner at first.  Two batters later, he dove to his left to spear a sharply hit groundball, only to throw the ball wildly over his brother's head at 1st.  At the plate, in the pair of at bats I saw, he showed good patience in the first, not expanding his strike zone, and went the other way with a fastball for a base hit.  In his next plate appearance, perhaps a little frustrated at the steady diet of breaking balls he was seeing, he chased a pitch outside of the strike zone for strike three.
   Gil Kim calls Bichette one of the most projectable hitters in the system, and despite pre-draft concerns about his swing, the organization will not tinker with it at Instructs:

 We are not concerned with his mechanics or defense, but we will work in Instructs on getting him caught up with some ABs that he missed during the season. 

   Bichette was recently named the GCL's 4th best prospect by Baseball America, and gave this evaluation:

With hitting mannerisms reminiscent of Josh Donaldson, Bichette gears up for his swing with a leg kick, cranks his back elbow with a deep load, then accelerates the bat head into the hitting zone thanks to terrific bat speed. He keeps the barrel on plane through the zone for a long time, showing a mature approach and polished feel to hit for his age, and he quiets his swing when he gets into two-strike counts. He hits to all fields and drives the ball with plus power.

 It will not be a surprise at all if Bichette skips two levels to join Vladdy Jr at Lansing to start 2017.  If not for his appendectomy, he likely would have spent August playing under the lights with Bluefield, anyway.  You can judge his swing for yourself in this pre-draft video:

Update:   A few days after publishing this post, an alert reader pointed out the Bichette had been hospitalized for acute appendicitis.  Bichette had actually not been feeling well for several days in mid July, but was told by a doctor that what he had was viral, and would pass.  Bichette tried to soldier on for a few days, but could go no further, and went to the emergency ward.  There, doctors discovered that his appendix had in fact burst, but his body was slowly absorbing the toxins - Bichette joked that he performed surgery on himself.
   As someone who had his appendix rupture as it was being removed, I can only marvel at Bichette.  I have never been so sick in all my life.