A Look at What's In the System

Tim Mayza - Clutchlings Photo

   With the Toronto Blue Jays struggling to score runs,  and a recent Statscast release demonstrating that in terms of baserunning speed, they have one of the slowest lineups in baseball,  thoughts of many fans are turning into what volume of selling the club will be doing at the trade deadline.
    It's hard to predict either way what the team will do at the end of this month.  A decent winning streak could put them right back into the thick of things.  But with Troy Tulowitzki struggling, Kevin Pillar reverting to career norms, and minus the spark that Devon Travis provided, it's hard to see this team playing meaningful September baseball.  The question for Blue Jays management is whether or not a quick fix, in the form of trades to shore up weak spots in the lineup is the answer, or if a complete tear-down is more in order.
   Before a team decides to blow it up and start from scratch, they have to take stock of their minor league systems.  Are there players who are close enough that their development as every day major leaguers won't be impaired by rushing them?  Are there enough players at key positions?  Will rebuilding be a long, painful, and attendance-costing process, or is there enough talent at the upper levels of the system to keep the team competitive?


   Here's a look, position-by-position, at what's in the system, and how close those players might be.

Catcher
   This is possibly the deepest position in the system - quite a turnaround from even a year ago.
Danny Jansen has gone fron oft-injured to AA All Star in the course of a year.  Reese McGuire underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in May and is out until at least August, and was replaced by Jansen.  Max Pentecost returned to Catching duties this year after two  Going deeper into the system, recent draftees Riley Adams and Hagen Danner show tremendous promise.
   Jansen and McGuire (that's the order I see them in - Jansen should become the everyday receiver, with McGuire a more than competent back up who can allow the Blue Jays to keep Jansen's bat in the lineup once in a while as a DH) are both at least a year away, while the newbies in the system are several.
   With Russ Martin under contract for two more years, and Miguel Montero just picked up from the Cubs, this position does not seem to be a priority for the Jays to re-tool.  With 3 decent prospects in full season ball, and a pair in short season, this is a position of strength for the organzation, and if the club was looking to upgrade the major league roster, this might be an area to deal from.

Corner Infielders
   This was the year that Rowdy Tellez was going to challenge Justin Smoak for a job by mid-season.
   So much for that.
    Tellez faced on and off-field struggles this half   His bat has started to show signs of life, but he's hovered around the Mendoza Line for much of the season to date.  Tellez was one of the youngest players in AA last year, and at 22, he's one of the youngest again at AAA.  There's not much to be gained by rushing him at this point.
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr may be on his way to best-prospect-in-baseball status, but he's still only 18, and several years away.
   There isn't much else at these positions.

Middle Infielders
    There is truly a glut of players in the system who can play 2nd and SS.   The most promising, of course, is Guerrero's bashing Lansing brother Bo Bichette, who is still a few years away as well.
  Richard Ureña was one of the youngest players in AA at the start of the season.  After settling many questions about his bat the past two years, he's struggled at the plate this year.  There is no doubt about his defensive skills.  He is the eventual successor to Troy Tulowitzki, but he likely is destined to be a bottom third of the order hitter.
    Jason Leblebijian has had the most successful season of any Blue Jays middle infielder.  Once viewed as an org guy, he went to Australia a couple of seasons ago, mashed his way to an MVP award, and seemingly hasn't stopped hitting.  At 26, his prospect status is starting to wane, however, and he can't really be viewed as a long-term answer.
    Top draft pick Logan Warmoth made his pro debut in the GCL, and now is a fixture in Vancouver's lineup.  He may even make it to Lansing by the end of the summer. He's not likely to make his MLB debut this decade, though.
   Lourdes Gurriel is something of a wild card here.  He could profile as a SS, 2B, or a LF.  After not playing for almost two years following his defection from Cuba, the Blue Jays expected some rust, but injuries have slowed his development this year.  A recent series against Bradenton showed some issues with bat speed and timing, but that apepars to be coming around now that he's healthy and in the lineup of AA New Hampshire every day.

Outfielders
   Blue Jays fans got a glimpse of the future when toolsy Anthony Alford made his MLB debut this year.  It was a brief one, of course, but if his recovery from wrist surgery goes well, (he's been back for about a week), there's every chance we see him in a Blue Jays uniform this summer.
   And the stock of good players at this position who are close begins and ends with Alford.  Roemon Fields has put together a surprising .298/.348/.385 line at Buffalo, but has struggled throughout much of his full-season minor league career to get on base enough to take advantage of his speed.  Dwight Smith Jr likewise has put up decent numbers at AAA, and even hit well in a brief audition with the big club, but he and Fields really should be considered to be no more than fourth outfielders at best.
   Edward Olivares has opened at lot of eyes at Lansing this year, but has to prove that he can maintain that kind of contact at the higher levels.  An aside: watching Olivares take BP earlier this year, it was kind of mystifying to watch him drive so many pitches into the top of the cage in an obvious attempt to put some loft on the ball.  Given his build and speed, an observer might have been tempted to think that a line drive, on-base approach might be better.  During the game that followed, Olivares lofted a HR over the wall in Left-Centre, a noteworthy blast in April at Cooley Law School Stadium.  He is a five-tool player (leads all Midwest League OFs in Assists) and a premium athlete who is still several years away.
2016 2nd rounder J.B. Woodman has swung and missed at a lot of pitches so far this year in the Midwest League.
  Dalton Pompey continues to try to stay healthy and see his name on the lineup card every day.
  This is not a positon of depth in the system, however.

Starting Pitchers
   Sean Reid-Foley would have been considered the top starting prospect in the system this year.  In his first try at AA, he's been too fine with his pitches, and has had his ups and downs, athough his most recent outing was a gem.  He's also only 21, and obviously needs more time.
    The same could be said of Conner Greene, who's walking hitters at a career-high rate (5.5/9) as SRF's rotation-mate.  Greene has shown flashes of brilliance, but has yet to put a solid stretch together - he walked 8 and fanned only 2 over only 4 innings in his last start.
   TJ Zeuch, the club's 1st round pick last year, showed promise in High A, but struggled to stay healthy as many pitchers do in his first full season, and is on the DL.  He's resumed baseball activities since being shut down a month ago, but there is not date for his return.
   Ryan Borucki was added to the 40-man last August, but his lengthy injury history prompted the team to shut him down briefly early in the season, and he was on a pitch-count limit until June.  Teammate and GTA product Jordan Romano has probably been the best starter in the Blue Jays system this year, although he may profile more as an MLB reliever. Both have to be considered two-three years away.
   Justin Maese reached Lansing in only his second pro season (quite a feat for a high school P) last August, but he too has been shut down with shoulder issues.  He returned to action in a GCL rehab stint this week, but the club is likely understandably reluctant to rush things.  Both Maese and Zeuch are several years away.
   Southpaw Angel Perdomo has been brought slowly through the system, and has pitched well at High A this year.  Most scouts are of the belief that his lights-out fastball will play better in a bullpen one day, but the Blue Jays are content for now to allow him to continue to develop as a starter.
   2015 1st rounder Jon Harris has had his struggles at AA this year, but seems to be turning things around.
   Yennsy Diaz has dazzled Midwest League hitters with his electric fastball since making his full season debut last month.  If his secondaries continue to develop, he will be an arm worth watching.

Relief Pitchers
   If there is one area that has consistently been one of the deepest pools of talent in the system.
Which is a good thing, considering the short shelf life of the modern day MLB reliever.
   Chris Rowley has rocketed through the system after being released from his military commitment last February.  He does not blow hitters away, but uses a combination of location and movement to keep hitters off balance.  He pitched in relief last year and for the first two months of this year, but injuries in New Hampshire's rotation forced him into a starting role.  He has been lights out in either capacity, earning a promotion to Buffalo.  The Blue Jays would have preferred to keep him in relief, according to a team official, but he's proven valuable in the swing man role.  He's knocking on the door of a major league job.
   Southpaw Matt Dermody has made tremendous strides since being switched to full-time bullpen duties two years ago, and even made a few appearances with the big club last fall.  He was hit hard in his only MLB outing this year, and has given up some contact with Buffalo, but is still striking out a batter per inning.  Fellow lefty Tim Mayza turned some heads in spring training, and after dazzling with an electric fastball that hits 97.  RHP John Stilson and his 96 mph fastball have been knocking on the major league door for some time, but injuries seem to keep getting in the way.
  At AA, Dusty Isaacs and New Brunswick's Andrew Case (recetnly promoted to Buffalo) haven't had a lot of opportunities to close the door on opponents for the last-place Fisher Cats, but have been very effective in late inning situations.  And while we usually don't go below that level to look for potential bullpen arms, Kirby Snead, Zach Jackson and Jackson McClelland have put together impressive seasons first at Lansing and now Dunedin.
   This is another position of strength for the organization in terms of depth.

Zach Jackson - Clutchlings photo

    In short, this is a system with a growing stockpile of talent, but there is little of it that's ready to step into an everyday role with the big league club.  Alford is the most obvious candidate, but the struggles of Tellez, Reid-Foley, and Greene indicate that they're still at least a year away.  Bichette and Guerrero are clearly the jewels of the system, but 2019 would have to be the earliest we would see them, and that date is probably a bit on the optimistic side.
    There is some trade depth if the Blue Jays were looking to upgrade the major league roster.  If Pentecost does not pan out behind the plate, his athleticism would be a fit for many teams.  Olivares offers a toolkit that might be very tempting.  And despite not being able to offer more than a $300K bonus to any of their international signings last year in the hangover that was the 2015 Vladdy Jr signing, there are some intriguing arms in that group.
    It's hard to say which way the Blue Jays management group is leaning, but if past performance is any indication, this is an administration which prefers to build from within, using young controllable players.  We're not apt to see the likes of Alex Anthopoulos' dealing two years ago (he traded 18 prospects in the span of eight months).   Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro is well aware of the risks of doing a full-on tear down, and is not likely to make a wholesale overhaul of the major league roster. The deals that he and GM Ross Atkins would make, if any, would probably involve the return of upper-level prospects for players on the 25-man with soon to be expiring contracts.  With a stable of prospects reaching the middle levels of the system this year, and a likely Top 10 draft pick next year barring a remarkable second half turnaround, it seems more likely that the Blue Jays will not be holding a fire sale later this month, but may look to move one or two contracts, with an eye to the club becoming more competitive in the next two years.

 

 
 
 

Mid-Season Prospect Update with Gil Kim

Clutchlings photo

   Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim is a busy, busy man.
Between overseeing players and staff among the Blue Jays 8 minor league affiliates, co-ordinating with the High Performance division, and meeting recently drafted players at the Bobby Mattick Minor League complex in Dunedin at a four-day mini-camp, he can be a hard man to pin down.

   Kim did agree to take some time out to discuss the progress of several prospects throughout the system.


Injury Update
   The Blue Jays opt to err on the side of caution with their younger prospects, particularly those who are relatively new to full season ball.  As a result, placing players on the DL and sending them to Dunedin for rest and rehab is a common precautionary practice.  That seems to be the case with Max Pentecost, who hasn't played since June 9th.  Slowed by a back strain in his return to full-time Catching duty after Danny Jansen was promoted to New Hampshire to replace the injured Reese McGuire, the Jays opted to shut the 2014 1st round draft choice down for a few weeks.  According to Kim, all indications are that he's doing well in rehab, and should be back in action shortly.
  Speaking of McGuire, who underwent arthroscopic surgery for a torn meniscus in late May, Kim reports that he is rehabbing well, but there is no timetable for his return, although it's expected to be before the end of the season.
   2016 1st rounder T.J. Zeuch has been on the DL since the beginning of June.  Kim wouldn't disclose what the injury was (it has to be shoulder related), but Zeuch is on a throwing program and is expected back soon.
   Lansing starting pitching stalwarts Justin Maese and Patrick Murphy have both been shut down. Maese has been rehabbing a sore shoulder, and hasn't started in a month.  A hamstring slowed Murphy down, and he hasn't pitched in three weeks.  Kim says both are on the mend, and should return to action shortly.
   Anthony Alford, as has been well documented, had surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in his wrist.  He too is doing well in Dunedin, and is expected back for the second half of the season, but there is no timetable yet.

Bo and Vladdy Jr
   As fans, we check out the MiLB box scores every morning to see how our favourite prospects fared. Each promotion up the ladder brings them one step closer to the Major Leagues, where we can see them live and in person.  If there's one question I've been asked most often lateley, it has to be, "when are Bo and/or Vladdy Jr getting promoted?"
   It's understandable that we want to catch a glimpse of players who for the most part have been only names on a webpage.  It's just as understandable that MLB teams want to stick to the plan for their top prospects.
  Kim was non-commital about when (or if) the two Lansing sluggers will get promoted.  All minor league prospects have a skill set that they're working on, and it's no big secret that the High Performance department has been working on agility and strength on the defensive side of the ball with both prospects.  Bichette, in particular, has been working on first-step quickness, working with Lansing Manager Cesar Martin and Hitting Coach Donnie Murphy on fielding countless groundballs.  Guerrero, for his part, is working on his defensive game, too, trying to become quicker at fielding slow rollers, and improving his overall range at 3rd. Both are learning how to play every day, to prepare for games, and how to recover from them afterwards.  As much as we want this to be a fast process, sometimes it isn't.  Both players are very age-appropriate for Low A ball, and Kim's philosophy could be summed up as, "why rush things?"
   Certainly, both have laid waste to Midwest League pitching.  After hitting the .400 mark a week ago, Bichette is hitting .394/.457/.627, and leads the league in several offensive categories.  He's hit in 51 of the 59 games he's played in, and has gone hitless in consecutive games only once.  Guerrero's numbers (.313/.406/.457) are not as gaudy, but no less impressive.  He's hit only .158 over his last 10, perhaps showing some signs of fatigue.
     The most likely path for Bichette is to spend at least the next few weeks with Lansing.  He has a decent chance of being named to July 9th's Futures Game roster, so a promotion after that may be in the offing.  Or, the team may decide to wait a few weeks and see what Lansing's post-season chances look like. Development does trump winning at the minor league level, but teams do like their top prospects to play together on teams that are making a playoff run.  Whatever the case, a promotion for either Bichette or Guerrero will not happen until there's a consensus among the Lansing and minor league staff that one or both are ready.
      A cautionary tale:  there's not a huge jump in terms of the quality of pitching between Low and High A, but the experience of Bradley Jones is one worth considering.  A more seasoned (22 years of age) college grad, Jones was promoted to Dunedin in early June after posting a line of .326/.394/.560 at Lansing.  Facing pitchers with better command of their fastball and secondaries, Jones has scuffled with the D-Jays, hitting only .156 and striking out in almost half of his 68 PAs.  Is the risk of Bichette having a similar experience (perhaps not to the same extent) worth the challenge of moving him to the next level?  Particularly as the season winds down, and his fatigue likely increases?  The Blue Jays will have those and other factors to consider very shortly.

The Importance of Make Up
   Kim stressed the importance of this aspect, which he called "the sixth tool," in evaluating and recruiting players for the organization.  It was a phrase which came up several times in discussions about prospects.  When I spoke to Angus Mugford a few weeks ago, it also was something we talked about at length.  The thinking is that there is so little difference among just about all players in terms of their physical abilities, but when push comes to shove, make up can be the difference.
 

Talking Prospects
   On Rowdy Tellez, who has scuffled mightily (.197/.273/.321 to this point):

  Rowdy we remember last year numbers-wise didn't get off to the start that we had wanted, then rebounded.  He kept working hard and finished the year off very well, and then he went to the Dominican Winter League and had a good season there.  I think right now with Rowdy - he's a young player in Triple A, and he's going through some experiences that are teaching him a lot about who he is, and we fully support him.  He's working hard in Buffalo with Devo (hitting coach Devon White), Meach (manager Bobby Meacham), and  (Field Co-ordinator) Eric Wedge.  We're confident that he's going to be fine, and this experience will be one that we're going to look back on when he's in the big league as one that helped him.

   On Max Pentecost, who returned to Catching duties for the first time since August, 2015:

We really can't say enough about his perserverance through the whole process, and his positivity....being able to channel that positive outlook into his daily routine.  He has done well on the offensive side, which was no surprise, but we were definitely surprised with the strides he's been able to make with his blocking, receiving, and game-calling - despite not having been back there a whole lot in the last couple of years.  It just helps so much when you have a former Catcher like John Schneider (Dunedin's Manager) back there who's passionate about teaching Catching, and has been a great help.

   On Anthony Alford:

Anthony probably along with Danny Jansen are the two most improved players we have, which in Anthony's case is no surprise, given his work ethic and positive attitude.  He became more consistent with his timing, and put in a lot of reps in the Outfield in Spring Training, and he's improved all around in terms of approach and consistent hard contact, and his OF/CF defence.  It's been a pleasure to see the type of player he's made himself into....this is all on him.

   On Danny Jansen, who was leading the Florida State League in hitting before being promoted to New Hampshire to replace McGuire:

Jano's a leader.....one of our strongest make up guys in the organization.  And what he's doing is not surprising, because he's one of those players who make adjustments and improve.  Coming into it, he was a late invite to big league camp, and his game has just taken off since the Arizona Fall League.  He's concentrating on using more of the field offensively, and has been improving his game-calling.  Schneider and (New Hampshire Manager and former MLB Catcher) Gary Allenson have been a big help there.

   Sean Reid-Foley, who has struggled this year (4.25 BB/9 rate, lowest - 40.7% GB rate of his career), but has started to turn things around in his last few starts:

Sean maybe didn't have the start that he had envisioned, but he has bounced back, and is getting back to his dominant self.  He maybe was pressing a bit early, but he's been doing very well working on maintaining that power delivery, while trying to incorporate his change up more.

   Conner Greene, who has not dominated in his second go-round of AA as some thought he might, although his 59% GB rate is second-best in the Eastern League:

Conner has improved....that's all we can ask.  He's taking all those steps every day to get better - consistency of delivery, fastball command.....hitters aren't necessarily as comfortable against his fastball as they were earlier in Spring Training or last year.  His curve has come a very long way - tighter spin on it, with harder action and depth.

  Chris Rowley, who has been something of a revelation this year, starting in New Hampshire's bullpen before being called upon to fill in for injured starter Francisco Rios.  Rowley is now pitching out of Buffalo's pen:

Chris just knows how to pitch.  He keeps hitters off balance, throws strikes, and competes.  He's another solid make up guy, a true professional, and we're not surprised by the strides that he's made.  We have no plans at the moment to move him out of the pen in Buffalo.

   2nd round draft pick Hagen Danner:

Hagen is going to Catch.  He'll start in the Gulf Coast League, like many of our high school players do.

 
Players Who Have Surprised
   When asked who has made some giant leaps forward in terms of their development so far this year, Kim offers two names:

Yennsy Diaz, RHP, who started the year in Extended, and has struck out 18 in 11 innings over 3 starts since being promoted to Lansing earlier this month:

Yennsy really has some of the best stuff in the organization.  He's worked hard at getting more consistent, and getting over top of the baseball on his pitches.  He's had a pretty solid start at Lansing.

OF Edward Olivares, who has quietly put together a .279/.315/.513 mark with 14 steals for Lansing:

Edward was injured last year, skipped a level this year.  He has some of the best tools in the organization, and is working hard at dialing it in and refining his game. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Education of Sean Reid-Foley

Clutchlings Photo

     2015 was a coming out party for Toronto Blue Jays RHP Sean Reid-Foley.  Sent to Lansing to begin full-season play in only his second pro season, the 2014 2nd rounder fanned 90 Midwest League hitters in 63 innings, earning a promotion to Dunedin in the second half.
    Last year, he was sent back to Lansing to work on commanding his fastball, and after another half season in Michigan he was on his way to Dunedin once again, having seemed to have conquered his control issues.
   The knock against Reid-Foley, possessor of a mid 90s fastball and wipeout slider, was that he would lose his mechanics mid-game, driving up his pitch count because he was unable to make the necessary adjustments.  Equipped with a new, simplified delivery, Reid-Foley missed a lot of bats in 2016, but more importantly was working deeper into games, and those comparisons to Jonathan Papelbon seemed to go away.

   Sent to AA to begin this season, Reid-Foley has had his struggles against the more advanced hitters of the Eastern League, and has gone beyond the 3rd inning only once in his first five starts.  The Blue Jays have been protective of his young arm (at 21, Reid-Foley is one the youngest players in the league), but his most recent start on April 29th against Binghamton was a microcosm of his season to date.  Some mechanical issues, command problems, bad luck, and some plain old bad pitches have been behind his rough initiation to AA.
   Reid-Foley was a victim of some misfortune in the 1st.  After fanning the leadoff hitter with a swinging K, he was ahead 1-2 on the 2nd hitter, who then slapped a ball that was slicing away from SS Richard Urena into shallow Leftfield for a hit.   Three pitches later, the next hitter lined a pitch that LF Harold Ramirez took a circuitous route on, and it bounced off the warning track and over the wall for a double.  A sacrifice fly to RF Jonathan Davis brought in Binghamton's first run, but Reid-Foley retired the final batter of the inning on a pop up to Urena.
   In the second inning, Reid-Foley gave up some soft and medium contact and found himself facing leadoff hitter Champ Stuart for the second time with runners on 1st and 2nd and two outs.  Reid-Foley threw a pair of strikes to Stuart, but then threw four consecutive balls to load the bases.  He regained his composure to induce what might have been an inning-ending groundball to the next batter, but 2B Tim Lopes booted the ball, allowing a run to score.  After retiring the side on a grounder to Urena, Reid-Foley was already at 42 pitches on the night through only two innings.
   In the third, he fell behind the leadoff hitter 3-1, and then gave up a longer Home Run to LF on a pitch that caught altogether too much of the strike zone.  Reid-Foley walked the next hitter on 4 pitches, and had considerable trouble repeating his delivery through much of the inning - sometimes, he would appear to briefly pause mid-delivery, others he had obvious difficulty coming up with the right arm angle. He gave up three more hits in the inning, as three runs crossed the plate.  A swinging K on his 29th pitch of the inning brought an end to both the frame and Reid-Foley's evening after only three innings and 71 pitches.

   Cause for concern?  Not really.  Reid-Foley's numbers on the season would likely look a little better (5.65 ERA, .311 BAA, 2.04 WHIP) if he was given a bit of a longer leash, which will probably start to happen this month.  At A ball, Reid-Foley could always rely on his four seamer up in the zone to put hitters away; AA hitters, if this start was any indication, are less inclined of offer at it.  If there is a positive on the night, it's that his slider appeared to be working quite well, but its effectiveness was diminished by his inability to command both sides of the plate with his fastball.  Some better quality pitches, more consistent mechanics, and some better defence behind him will help Reid-Foley iron out his issues as the season progresses.  It certainly isn't time to dust off those Papelbon comps and consider a move to the bullpen;  Reid-Foley still profiles as a #2 or #3 starter, but as this spring has shown, he's still young and has a lot to learn.

Blue Jays Prospects Likely to Make a Spring Training Impact

   Teams invite their top prospects to Major League training for a whole host of reasons.  The main purpose is to expose the youngsters to MLB life, and to give them a sense of not only how close they are to making it, but what it takes from a physical and mental point of view to get there - and stay there.
    Prospects tend to be brought along slowly in spring training, with their playing time in the first few weeks restricted to late-inning duty, when the regulars have finished their work for the day.  Playing against fellow prospects and fringe MLBers, some shine, while others show that there is still work to do.  When minor league spring training opens in late February, many of these players are sent back for further seasoning.

   In 2015, little was expected from prospects Miguel Castro or Roberto Osuna.  Castro had a breakout 2014, but had not pitched above A ball.  Given his difficulties with his secondary pitches, and openings in the Blue Jays bullpen, he was moved into relief and showed well in his first few late-inning outings, and continued to pitch well when rosters were pared, and he parlayed that into an Opening Day job with the big club. Osuna, whose 2014 was limited to a handful of innings after coming back from Tommy John surgery, fared well in the Arizona Fall League, and while his repertoire and advanced feel for pitching projected him as a starter, he too found work in the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen when the season opened.

  There tend to be two waves of impact prospects in spring training.  The first consists of players who were invited to spring training, and the second is comprised of players who weren't originally invited, but as the spring wears on and more bodies are needed, have earned their way into some MLB action.

Here, in the order of probable impact, are the players who could be worth watching on your tv or computer this spring after the regulars have been removed from the starting lineup, starting with the first wave.

1.  Anthony Alford
   This will actually be Alford's third spring with the big club.  In the summer of 2014, he turned down a contract extension offer, and returned to school for another season of college football.  Sensing that his future might not lie on the gridiron, he packed in his pro football dreams to become a full-time baseball player.  A sizeable contract offer which included an invite to spring training likely helped to change his mind.
   Alford was in awe and very over-matched in 2015 spring training....

@Clutchlings77 I totally agree

— Anthony Alford (@ajalfor1) March 6, 2015

.... but he took some of the lessons he learned to the minors, and ended the year as a Top 100 prospect.  Even despite a sideways 2016, he showed well against advanced competition in the Arizona Fall League, and he should stand out more this year.  Alford is still developing his offensive skills, but he works the count, uses the whole field, and has game-changing speed.  If he's used in those late-game situations early in spring training, Alford should make an impact.

2.  Conner Greene
   As spring training progresses, the need for pitching tends to increase as teams try to monitor the innings of players most likely to break camp with team.  Greene was part of the second wave last year, and was impressive, striking out three of the four hitters he faced in his debut.
   After a breakout 2015, Greene appeared headed to AA New Hampshire, putting him on the cusp of the major leaguers.  Management felt otherwise, sending him back to High A Dunedin to work on his fastball command and between-starts routine.  Greene is a free spirit, and this pumping the brakes on his development was probably a signal to him that his emotional maturation wasn't complete.
   Greene returned to New Hampshire last August, and didn't miss a beat.  He likely will open the season with the Fisher Cats again, but his fastball, which can touch 98, should allow him to overpower the fellow prospects he'll be facing in early spring training.  It will be interesting to see how he fares if he's given some starts this spring, when he'll be facing major league hitters.

3.  Rowdy Tellez
   Slow starts are almost a Tellez trademark.  He hit .107/.286/.143 in his first month of pro ball in 2013, was 6 for his first 37 ABs the following year, and .164/.345/.361 last April.   If there's one thing he's proved that he's capable of, however, it's making adjustments, and it's easy to see him hitting some long blasts in late-game action this spring if he sees any strikes.  He should make the move to a starting role fairly quickly this spring, however, as the Blue Jays try to determine his MLB-readiness.

4.  Glenn Sparkman
   Sparkman is not officially an invitee, because he was selected in the Rule 5 draft in November.  If he makes the team out of spring training, he has to stay on the 40-man roster for the entire season; if not, he has to be offered back to his original team (Kansas City).  A successful starter before his Tommy John surgery, Sparkman was working his way back last year.  The Blue Jays likely feel that he could be this year's Joe Biagini, and he probably will be put into high leverage situations fairly early this spring.

5.  Richie Urena
   He may be the Blue Jays top prospect, according to some rankings, but Urena is not about to supplant starting SS Troy Tulowitzki just yet.  Still, his gap power and fast-twitch reflexes at short may bring fans out of their seats several times this spring before he heads to minor league camp.

Clutchlings photo

6..  Reese McGuire
   If you can believe much of what you read online, the Blue Jays are considering McGuire as a potential back up to Russ Martin this year.  His glove may be MLB-ready, but his bat probably is not.  McGuire can control a running game like few others, and he may make an impact early with this ability to throw runners out with his elite pop time and strong, accurate arm.


The Next Wave
   There's no guarantee any of the following will see any time in an MLB uniform this spring - no one has that kind of crystal ball.  Still, due to injuries or a need for some extra days off, openings occur in spring training, and if these players continue to develop this spring on the same trajectory that they did last year, it's conceivable that they could see some playing time.

1.  Sean Reid-Foley
    SRF, like Greene, had some adjustments to make last year in consistently finding the strike zone last year, and like Greene, may have a sizzling spring training debut.  If he can continue to harness his fastball command like he did in the second half last year, Reid-Foley is the top starting prospect in the organization. He has no chance of breaking camp with the team, but may make catching the late innings of games this March worth your while.

2.  Angel Perdomo
   The 6"8" lefty with the easy delivery and electric fastball was left off the 40-man roster last fall.  The Blue Jays gambled that they could sneak him past the Rule 5 draft.  Perdomo needs to refine his command and develop his secondaries more, but he could be lights out in short relief stints with a pared-down arsenal.

Baseball America photo

3.  Ryan Borucki
   Borucki made a comeback from arm and shoulder injuries in 2016, and was added to the 40-man in November.  He has the best change up in the system, and his development may take off this year.  In a late spring cameo, the depth of that change might be on display, and would likely disrupt hitters' timing.

4.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr
   This is really going out on a limb, admittedly.  If he had been born stateside, Jr would be entering into his draft-eligible year.  Instead, he's a Top 100 prospect, and will likely be a Top 10 by season's end.  With the Lansing Lugnuts, Guerrero's likely Opening Day assignment, starting Midwest League play later the following week at nearby Midland, MI, it would be fairly easy to get him there after travelling with the big team to Montreal for a pair of exhibition games with the Pirates to open April.  He might be over-matched, but his plate appearances would be cause for standing ovations on his dad's former home field.

5.  Danny Jansen
   He may have been lost a bit in the shuffle.  McGuire is the organization's top Catching prospect at the moment, and no doubt some attention will be paid over at the minor league complex to Max Pentecost's return behind the plate this spring, but if you had to build a prototypical Catcher, you would likely start with Jansen.
   Even though injuries have curtailed three of his first four pro seasons, Jansen has already drawn raves for his defensive abilities.  The power potential is there, and he more than held his own in the Arizona Fall League.  A late spring cameo could enhance his prospect status.


6.  Jonathan Davis
   Not to be confused with the under-achieving 2012 first rounder, DJ Davis, this Davis has turned in a pair of quality minor league seasons the past two seasons in A ball. With Dunedin last year, he was 2nd in the Florida State League in steals, 3rd in walks, and 5th in OBP.  Davis should flank Alford in New Hampshire.  The 5'8"/190 power plug added 14 HR in the pitcher-friendly FSL last year, and his speed/power/on-base combination might be on display with the big club late in the spring if an opportunity arises.


   Blue Jays minor leaguers report to camp in Dunedin on February 27th.  After the first week, they are placed into groupings that loosely resemble their likely Opening Day destinations, although the groupings can be flexible.  Buffalo announced a 14-game schedule against other International League teams housed in the Tampa area.  A group of players representing New Hampshire usually accompanies them, playing other AA teams on adjoining diamonds.   If you are in the area, it's worth the short drive to some of the other minor league complexes to watch two games at once.

Projecting the Rosters - New Hampshire

Sean Reid-Foley/Clutchlings photo

   Minor League Opening Day is getting closer, and the potential rosters of the Blue Jays affiliates are becoming a little clearer.
   The New Hampshire Fisher Cats became a Blue Jays affiliate in 2003, and the partnership has been a successful one, even with Toronto attempting to help relocate an Eastern League team in Ottawa in 2014, only to have Ottawa city council balk at footing the bill for necessary stadium upgrades.  The PDC between the two sides was extended last year for another two years, to 2018.  The team is solidly in Red Sox country, and some of the Fisher Cats promotions reflect that.
   A former Red Sox, Gary Allenson, will return to New Hampshire to manage this year after spending the last three year piloting Buffalo.  Three of the top prospects in the system (Richie Urena, Anthony Alford, and Sean Reid-Foley) should start the season at this level. Cuban IFA Lourdes Gurriel may begin the season at AA, but his April destination will largely depend on his spring training progress - he hasn't faced live pitching in a year and a half.  Some have suggested that he starts the season at Dunedin, before making his way north to New Hampshire or Buffalo once the weather warms up.
   In many ways the jump to AA is the highest in the minor leagues.  The consensus is that players at that level "have a plan":  they realize that they no longer can get by on the strength of their physical talents alone. Pitchers realize that they can't necessarily blow the ball by hitters, so command, sequencing, and secondary pitches become extremely important.  Hitters come to learn that approach becomes everything, and that they can't just sit on mistake pitches any more in order to succeed.
Catcher

	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/SLG
C	Danny Jansen	21	Dunedin	.218/.316/.269
C	Mike Reeves	26	Dunedin	.244/.365/.348

   The organization is very high on Jansen, who has advanced receiving skills.  Agile, with excellent pitch calling and framing skills, Jansen has had the hardest time staying healthy, missing hugh chunks of time in 3 of his first 4 pro seasons with injuries.  He may profile as a defense-first Catcher, but the bat has some power potential, and he puts the ball in play.  Jansen redeemed himself with a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League.  Reese McGuire and Max Pentecost (provided he stays at the position) may have passed Jansen on the organization depth chart, but team officials have said that he still figures in their long-range plans.

   Peterborough, ON native Reeves got off to a solid start in the Australian Baseball League, but found himself shifted to 3rd Base at times when regular Canberra receiver Robbie Perkins rejoined the team. Reeves got off to a hot start with Canberra, but cooled over the last half of the ABL season.

Infielders

	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/SLG
1B	Ryan McBroom	24	Dunedin	.266/318/.455
2B	Christian Lopes	24	Dunedin/NH	.283/.353/.402
SS	Richie Urena	20	Dunedin/NH	.295/.335/434
3B	Mitch Nay	23
DH	Matt Dean	24	NH/Dunedin	.216/.297/.305
UT	Gunnar Heidt	24	Lansing/Dunedin	.263/.345/.419

   

   Urena is the highlight here, but he's not the only name to watch.  McBroom, the 2015 Midwest League MVP, has never been considered a top prospect, but he's hit at every level, hitting 21 Homers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League last year.  He's a bat-first prospect, however, which has limited his outlook.  If he can continue to hit the long ball in AA, however, we may have to reconsider his status.

Richard Urena/Clutchlings photo

  Nay was once an up-and-coming prospect, even seeing some action with the big team toward the end of spring training two years ago.  Injuries limited him to 22 GCL ABs last season, and after struggling in High A in 2015, he will be looking to regain his former standing.

   Urena figures to be in Buffalo by mid-season at the latest.  He has proven he has the skills on both sides of the ball to become a major league regular, and he should find a home in the bigs by 2018 or 2019.

Outfielders

	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/SLG
OF	Derrick Loveless	23	NH/Dunedin	.237/.337/.415
OF	Anthony Alford	22	Dunedin	.236/.344/.378
OF	Jonathan Davis	24	Dunedin	.252/.376/.441
OF	David Harris	25	Dunedin	.221/.268/.317

  After a breakout 2015, Alford had his share of injuries and inconsistency in what's been termed a sideways 2016, although he had a solid second half, and like Jansen, regained considerable status with a strong AFL campaign.  Davis had a fine 2016, finishing 2nd in the FSL in steals, and 3rd in runs and walks, as well as 5th in OBP.  The versatile Harris missed much of last season due to a PED suspension.  

Starting Pitchers

	Player	Age	2016 team	WHIP/BB/9/K/9
SP	Sean Reid-Foley	21	Lansing/Dunedin	1.01/3.0/10.1
SP	Justin Shafer	24	Dunedin	1.48/3.3/4.8
SP	Luis Santos	25	Dunedin/NH	1.30/2.6/8.3
SP	Jeremy Gabryzwski	23	New Hampshire	1.48/3.0/5.9
SP	Taylor Cole	27	New Hampshire	1.41/2.5/7.9

  With a simplified delivery, Reid-Foley found the strike zone more often, and had a breakout 2016.  He has the highest ceiling of any starting pitcher in the system.  Cole led the minors in Ks in 2014, but shoulder issues held him to 61 innings last year, and he should return to AA for a third season.  If he is healthy and there are openings in the system above him, he may reach Buffalo before long.  

Relief Pitchers

	Player	Age	2016 team	WHIP/BB/9/K/9
RP	Chris Rowley	26	Dunedin	1.28/2.2/6.3
RP	Tim Mayza	25	Dunedin/NH	1.28/4.2/9.1
RP	Adonys Cardona	23	Dunedin	1.83/7.4/6.2
RP	Conor Fisk	24	Lansing/Dun	1.12/2.3/7.6
RP	Alonzo Gonzalez	25	Dunedin/NH	1.32/5.6/8.3
RP	Jose Fernandez	23	Dunedin	1.44/7.0/8.5
RP	Brad Allen	27	Dunedin	1.50/4.9/7.8

   This is the group that helped propel Dunedin to a playoff birth last season, and they should move up to AA together.  Rowley, who hadn't pitched in two years while he served a military commitment, found success in the bullpen after struggling as a starter.  Southpaw Mayza's delivery is very tough on left handed hitters, while former top prospect Cardona, who has had his share of injuries, made a successful conversion to relieving. If New Hampshire makes a playoff appearance this year, the bullpen may be a big part of it.

Tim Mayza/Clutchlings photo

   

Ware Named Minor League Pitching Coordinator

   At the end of the winter meetings last month, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet mentioned that the Blue Jays have filled their vacant minor league pitching coordinator position with Jeff Ware, who has served as Lansing's pitching coach the past two seasons.

   Ware was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 1st round in 1991, but shoulder injuries derailed his career.  He did pitch in 38 games for the team from 1995-96.  He began his coaching career with the Yankees in 2001 before joining the Blue Jays and serving as Vancouver's pitching coach in 2014.

  The work Ware has done in his two years with the Lugnuts has been impressive.  Under his watch, first-time full season players like Conner Greene, Jesus Tinoco, and Chase DeJong became stalwarts in the Lansing rotation.  This year, he helped 2015 1st rounder Jon Harris get back on track before his promotion to Dunedin, and helped Ryan Borucki, who had been sent down to Lansing after giving up 40 hits in 20 Florida State League innings, add some deception in his delivery.  Borucki went on to become one of the top starters in the Midwest League, and was added to the Blue Jays 40-man roster this fall.   Ware also helped to change and simplify Sean Reid-Foley's delivery, and helped the Top 10 prospect post the lowest BB/9 rates of his career.

   Markham, ON's Jordan Romano came back from Tommy John surgery in June to pitch for the Lugnuts, and credits Ware for much of the success he experienced last summer.  Under Ware, Romano pitched out of the stretch at all times, and Ware helped him get the proper angle on his fastball.  "Sometimes, I would be working side to side with my fastball, instead of up and down," he said.  "Whenever I would have a good angle on my fastball, it would be a tough night for the hitters, so we worked on that a lot."

   Ware has some big shoes to fill in replacing Sal Fasano, who was revered by many Blue Jays pitching prospects.  Ware is quieter and not as outgoing as the departed Fasano, but he has just as many admirers in the system, and has quietly put together an impressive body of work.  Ware is not just adept at correcting mechanical flaws in a pitcher - he understands the psychology of working with young pitchers, as well.  Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim confirmed Ware's hiring, saying, "Jeff possesses a high standard of excellence for both himself and his teammates, a competitive drive to get better every day, and a humble personality who has a passion for helping people."
 
   The Blue Jays may have more pressing needs at the moment (ie the team's 25-man roster), but this was an excellent hire.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

   2016 was a year of steady, if not spectacular growth in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system.
After former GM Alex Anthopoulos dealt 18 prospects to improve the major league roster in an eight-month period, the system was bound to go through a dry spell.
   The good news is that there was some talent in the lower levels of the system that showed encouraging signs; the bad news is that there's still a lack of upper-level depth - there are no Blue Jays prospects in Baseball America's Top 50, and only 3 in the back end of the Top 100.
   The new Mark Shapiro-Ross Atkins regime opted to pump the brakes somewhat on the development of prospects.  Promotions were still in the offing, but this is an organization that now opts for a slow but steady approach to bringing a prospect through the system.  It's not likely we will see a player sail through three or four levels in a season, as Dalton Pompey, Daniel Norris, and Kendall Graveman did in 2014, anytime soon. The message to prospects was clear:  you will not be rushed, nor will you make it to the next level until you've checked all the boxes on your list of skills to improve.
   The club's draft philosophy, in what turned out to be Brian Parker's last as head of amateur scouting, took a shift in direction.  After showing a preference for projectable athletes (ie, high school pitchers), the team dipped into the college ranks, taking collegians with 5 of their first 6 picks.  This may have been in the interest of re-stocking the system quickly after Anthopoulos raided the cupboard last year, or it may indicate a desire to go with safer, more polished players who are closer to MLB-ready.  The addition of former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, who will help oversee player development, is a huge boost to the organization, and will no doubt bring some of his advanced player evaluation methods to the club.
   The system is no longer among the bottom in terms of rankings, but it's not near the top, either.

 


1.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr  3B
ETA:  late 2019, early 2020
Future Outlook  impact, middle of the order bat
Calling Card:  advanced strike zone judgement, Home Run Derby power

   A year ago, I was hard pressed to include a 16-year old who had never stepped on a professional field in the Top 10 list, and placed him at the back end.
   Now, after watching him handle Appalachian League pitching very well as a 17 year old, I am all in.  In naming him the Appy League's top prospect, despite being the loop's youngest player, Baseball America said:

Guerrero showed elite hard-hit ability, consistently squaring up pitches and covering the plate well. He shows plus bat speed, natural timing in the box, an understanding of the strike zone and an ability to recognize and track offspeed pitches.

   It's early, and there are hurdles for the young slugger to face, but he is already shaping up as possibly the best hitting prospect the organization has ever produced.
  Vlad Jr has shown strike zone judgement (12% walk rate), bat speed (he slugged .449), and an ability to use the whole field:

MLBfarm.com

   That's three ingredients for future success.

   The biggest concerns about Guerrero heading into 2016 were his bulky build, and his ultimate position.  While he'll never be a 30-30 guy like his Dad (he will draw more walks than his Father did, though), Vlad Jr stole 15 bases in 20 attempts, which owed more to base running smarts than it did outright speed, but demonstrated another facet of his game.

   Reports on Guerrero at the hot corner suggested that he was at least adequate in terms of range, footwork, and hands, and has the arm strength to stick there a while longer.  He'll continue to work on his skills at 3rd during Fall Instructional League.

   Guerrero hit .271 and had an .808 OPS - a late season swoon in which he went 3-25 dropped his numbers, but this is a player who more than held his own in his first pro season against players 3-4 years older than him.  If he grew up stateside, Vlad Jr would just be heading into his senior year of high school. Much has been made of his build, which leaned toward the slightly chubby side when he signed, but reports indicate that like Rowdy Tellez and Roberto Osuna before him, Guerrero is slowly transforming his body through training and nutrition.

    I wasn't convinced a year ago, but I'm more than convinced now.  This is a middle-of-the-order, impact bat in the making.  Guerrero has said he wants to be in the majors before he turns 20, and while the club will want to take things gradually with him, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him there by then.  Expect Guerrero to spend next season with Lansing.  He may take a bit of a step back at the start of the season with the colder weather and the more polished pitchers in the Midwest League, but there's every reason to believe he'll adjust.  This is a kid who skipped both the DSL and the GCL; there's some maturity there.
   With his soon to be Hall of Famer Dad in attendance, Jr knocked his first round tripper in his second pro game:

2.  Rowdy Tellez  1B
ETA:  late 2017, early 2018
Future Outlook:  middle of the order bat
Calling Card:  not a one-dimensional slugger; gets on base, uses the whole field.

   It's Rowdy time!
   I have been an enthusiastic fan of the oversized slugger since his first pro season.  The organization has patiently moved him through the system, and he has responded to every challenge.
   Sent to AA New Hampshire to start the season (when several of his fellow prospects were sent back to Dunedin for more seasoning) because of his advanced feel for the strike zone, Tellez did not see a lot of strikes in April, as pitchers avoided him and preferred to pitch to his slow-starting Fisher Cats teammates. Tellez did not expand his strike zone that month, and stayed patient, hitting only .164, but posting a .345 OBP.  As his teammates heated up, so did Tellez, and he put up solid numbers: .297/.387/.917, with 23 Homers, finishing 3rd in the Eastern League in Slugging and OPS.
   What has always impressed me the most about Tellez is that he's more than a one-dimensional slugger. There have always been concerns about his lack of speed and his fielding, but he has done as much as any player in the organization to transform his body and become more agile.  And while there's 30-Homer potential there, Tellez does not go up to the plate swinging from the heels, telling David Lauria of Fangraphs:

“I’ve watched a lot of guys over the years. The two I’ve really narrowed it down to watching — dissecting their swings and approaches — are Adrian Gonzalez and Anthony Rizzo. I look at how easy Gonzalez swings and I’ve adopted a little bit of what Rizzo does with two strikes. He takes out his leg kick and works on driving the ball the other way. He knows he can hit home runs to all fields, even with a two-strike approach and not having the leg kick. That’s what I’m doing now. If you can eliminate strikeouts… it’s a huge game-changer."

   The plan for Tellez is to begin the year with Buffalo in 2017, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and suggest that if the Blue Jays are unable to re-sign Edwin Encarnacion, and he has a decent spring, Tellez could break camp with the big club as the starting 1st Baseman next year.  Replacing Edwing's bat in the lineup will be a tall order, but Tellez could offer the club a player that gets on base, puts the ball in play, and isn't afraid to change his approach with two strikes.
   It's easy to picture this smooth left-handed stroke in the Rogers Centre:

3.  Anthony Alford OF
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook  Kenny Lofton-like lead off hitter
Calling Card:  game-changing speed and developing gap power

  2015 was a breakout year for the former two-sport star, who gave up his gridiron dreams in the fall of 2014 to focus on baseball after three years of part-time play since being drafted in the 3rd round of 2012. After a solid half season at Dunedin at the end of last season, it was reasonable to expect Alford would start at New Hampshire.  Not so fast, said the organization, recognizing his relative baseball inexperience, and the need to improve his pitch recognition and strike zone judgement, sending him back to the D-Jays to open the season.
   Injured in a home-plate collision on Dunedin's opening day, and put on the shelf again six weeks later with a concussion suffered in an outfield collision, Alford's first half was pretty much a wipeout.
   And that's not a bad thing.  Almost all successful prospects have to go through some adversity on their way up the ladder, and this year was the Mississippian's turn.  The bad times can be more instructive than the good times.
   After a .200/.277/.256 first half, Alford was finally healthy by July, and turned things around, posting a .257/.381/.449 line.  Alford's 117 strikeouts have to be a concern to the organization, although his K rate was 37% in the first half, when he was in and out of the lineup, and only 25% in the second, when he was a fixture atop the D-Jays' batting order.  The 7 Home Runs he hit in the 2nd half hint at some developing power.
   Alford has always trusted his ability, and he has learned to put failure on the field into perspective, as he told Milb.com:

"I'm just learning, learning more about myself. This season has been a good learning season for me because I've never had to deal with failure. I've failed a lot this year. I guess that's something I needed to go through," he said. "I'm not afraid to fail because I know myself and I know my ability and my mind-set. I'm going to overcome it and I'm going to make the adjustment because that's just who I am as an athlete."

   Even though he stole only 18 bases in 24 attempts after swiping 27 a year ago, Alford still profiles as a top of the order bat with game-changing speed.  He works the count well, and the club is hoping that he will learn not to expand his strike zone so much with two strikes to help cut down on the whiffs. That the organization still views him as a top prospect is evidenced by the fact that he was selected to play in the Arizona Fall League, where he will make up for some missed playing time, and hone his skills against top competition.  Alford will begin 2017 in New Hampshire, where he should regain much of his former prospect lustre.
   The Florida State League is a black hole for streaming video, so we'll have to make do with some clouds of dust as Alford triples for Lansing in 2015:

4.  Sean Reid-Foley  RHP
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook:  #2 or #3 starter; innings eater
Calling Card:  95 mph fastball with command to both sides of the plate

   The 2014 2nd rounder impressed many in his first year of full season ball last year, and after splitting time between Dunedin and Lansing last year, it was a bit of a surprise that he started the year in Michigan.
   But the new management team sent a clear message across the organization that promotion to the next level isn't automatic, and is contingent upon a prospect working on a number of things.
   And for Reid-Foley, that thing was commanding his fastball to both sides of the plate.
   As I wrote earlier this year, Reid-Foley came into 2016 with a new, simplified delivery.  First implemented at Instructs of Fall 2015, the new mechanics were meant to simplify things, and help Reid-Foley find a delivery that he could repeat consistently.  In 2015, he would lose the strike zone almost without warning during a game that he was cruising along in, and scouts noted that he lacked the experience to make the mechanical adjustments that would help him re-discover it, driving up his pitch count, and hastening his exit from the game.
  Reid-Foley fanned 59 in 58 innings in his first 11 starts with Lansing, with only 22 walks, earning a return trip to Dunedin, where he struck out a career-high 12 over 7 innings in his first start.  In his next start, he fanned only 3 thru 6, but more impressive was that he didn't walk a batter - in 57 innings with the D-Jays, he whiffed 71, while walking only 16.   His season would have been even more impressive had he not been shut down for the rest of the season after August 10th.  Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim told Sportsnet's Shi Davidi that it was for precautionary reasons:

"You always want to be conservative or cautious with pitchers and elbows. He returned to throwing three weeks ago, he’s doing fine, he feels great. It was more precautionary than anything. He had a great season, made a lot of positive strides, and we didn’t want to push anything there, although he wanted to pitch."

   Reid-Foley is a power pitcher who missed a lot of bats with his 93-95 fastball and wipeout slider.  Sent to Instructs once again, he'll try to refine command of his changeup.  There once were comparisons to Jonathan Papelbon, but Reid-Foley has demonstrated an ability to turn over a lineup, and now is the most promising starting pitcher in the organization.  Only three years out of high school, he will continue his slow but steady climb up the ladder at New Hampshire next year.

   SRF from 2015 displaying his swing-and-miss stuff:

5.  Richard Urena SS
ETA:  late 2017, early 2018
Future Outlook:  steady defensive middle infielder
Calling Card:  surprising pop - more than just a glove

   In July of 2012, the Blue Jays secured the services of the two highest-rated shortstops of the International free agent class.  Urena and Venezuelan Franklin Barreto moved up the lower levels of the organization in lock step, with Barreto usually a level ahead of Urena.  The consensus was that Barreto's defensive skill set was best suited to another position, and that Urena proejcted as a better defensive player, but when the two briefly played together in Vancouver in 2014, Barreto played short, and Urena played 3rd.
  That off season, when then-GM Alex Anthopoulos was in the midst of putting together a deal to acquire Josh Donaldson from Oakland, he had to decide which of the two youngsters was the team's shortstop of the future.
  He chose Urena.
  To be honest, I was disappointed that the club let Barreto go after winning the Northwest League MVP at the age of 18, but you have to give up something to get something, and one can hardly argue with the results of that deal.
   And Urena, who had been regarded as a defence-first player, has done nothing but hit in the ensuing two seasons, and actually out hit Barreto this year (.295/.334/.434 vs  .284/.342/.422) - Barreto spent much of his year in AA, while Urena was promoted to that level in August.
   Urena is a slick fielder, with quick twitch reactions.  The knock against his defensive skills was his tendency to nonchalant routine plays, a knack which he has cut back drastically on.  After starting the year at Dunedin (where he was named a Florida State League All Start despite missing the final month of the season), he was promoted to New Hampshire in August after putting up a .305/.351/.447 line, and he was a hit in the Eastern League, going 7-14 in his first three games, and demonstrating his speed and gap power with a pair of triples, and three more in a game a week later.
   Urena is aggressive at the plate, and jumps on fastballs early in the game.  He's shown improved plate discipline, and cut down on his strikeout totals from last year.  His swing from the right side has been a work in progress, and still needs further refining, although he posted respectable numbers.  In naming him their top Blue Jays mid-season prospect, MLB Pipeline noted:

Urena also made significant progress on defense last season by making only 23 errors in 120 games at shortstop, after he committed 40 in 119 games between his first two pro seasons. He has the tools to stick at the position, with soft hands, clean actions and plus arm strength. Urena may be a ways away from making an impact at the highest level, but he shows the makings of an everyday shortstop capable of hitting for some average and 15-20 homers in a given season.

  He has kind of gotten lost in the ascendancy of Tellez, SRF, and Guerrero, but Urena is on the verge of being MLB-ready.   While Troy Tulowitzki shows no signs of slowing down, he's Tulo's eventual successor at short.  With Tellez, Urena, and Greene in the lineup next year, AAA Buffalo will be a team worth watching.
  Urena triples for his first AA hit in August:

6.  Conner Greene RHP
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook: mid rotation starter
Calling Card:  pounder of the lower half of the strike zone
 
   Greene caught a heavy dose of helium last year, in his first campaign of full season ball, beginning the year at Lansing, and finishing at New Hampshire.  Invited to MLB spring training, he had a successful debut, and appeared set to step back on that rocket ride to the top.
   Except like Reid-Foley, he still had things to work on, and was sent back to Dunedin, fastball command and his secondaries being the items in question.  Kim also told Sportsnet's Davidi that there were some things he needed to work on between starts:

This year he worked on his five-day routine … becoming more consistent, whether it’s side sessions, or long toss, locking everything in with the same focus he has on the mound. Those are areas of his game that have improved.

   By mid-season, Greene was back in AA, and seemed to alternate lights out appearances with ones in which he was knocked around.  He did throw six innings of no-hit ball in one mid-August start.  Greene sits 92-94 with his fastball, and has a change that is particularly effective.  He did not miss as many bats this year as he did last year (2016 on the top, 2015 on the bottom).....

 
      ....but he did generate more ground ball outs, evidence of his success in keeping his pitches down in the zone.
   There is a tendency to think that Greene took a slight step backward in his development this year if you make that kind of judgement based solely on his numbers.  Still, he is young (he turned 21 as the season opened in April), but this was truly a year of refinement for the athletic righthander.  It's easy to look solely at a prospect's numbers for a given season and ignore the body of work and the ongoing adjustments that were part of it.  Even after a breakout season in 2015, there was still room for improvement.  Greene may begin the year at New Hampshire, but should see Buffalo by season's end.

   

7.  Jon Harris RHP
ETA: 2018
Future Outlook: durable back of the rotation arm
Calling Card:  lots of groundball outs
   During the Alex Anthopoulos era, the Blue Jays showed a preference for drafting athletic high school pitchers who may not have always been at the top of the scouting lists, but fit a profile that promised future projection.  HS pitchers have always been among the biggest gambles in the draft, but the Blue Jays shunned tradition, with the goal of getting those athletes into the system as soon as possible in order to overhaul just about every aspect of their pitching profile.
   One of those was a 6'2/150 pitcher from surburban St Louis who was so skinny he probably had to run around in the shower to get wet named Jon Harris, in the 33rd round.  Harris opted to attend Missouri State, and the Blue Jays were ecstatic when his name was still on the board three years later when it came time to make their first overall pick at number 29.  Harris had grown to 6'4"/190, and had become one of the top collegiate pitchers in the nation.
   His first summer in pro ball was not a successful one, however, as Harris struggled with this command at Vancouver, missing the plate on many occasions, or finding too much of it on others.  There was talk that Harris was worn down from a long NCAA season, but there were also suggestions that his delivery, which had a lot of moving parts, was to blame.  A major re-make of hs mechanics was in store during Instructs, and you can see the results from one of his final college outings to one with Lansing this spring. The deliveries are similar, but his hands rise over his head in the bottom one, leading to a more deliberate motion, and a less awkward finish, leaving him in a better fielding positon:


via GIPHY

via GIPHY

   Harris was also taught the grip for a four-seam change up to go along with his four-seam fastball, and the results were impressive.  Sent to Lansing to start the season, Harris gave up an unearned run in his second start, then allowed no runs over his next six starts, a span of 32 innings.  In each of his final two starts, he struck out 11 in 7 innings, both career highs.  Harris was promoted to Dunedin in late July.
  Harris offers a four pitch mix, with his fastball, slider and change having been graded as potential plus pitches.  He sits 92-94 with that fastball, which has some heavy sink to it when he's on, leading to a lot of ground balls.  He commented during the season that keeping weight on was an issue for him throughout high school and college, but he's managed to pack on some pounds and strength.  Harris projects as an inning-eating back of the rotation arm, and he likely will repeat Dunedin next year for at least a half season.
 
8.  Max Pentecost C
ETA:  2019
Future Outlook:  Russell Martin's heir apparent
Calling Card:  plus athleticism, translating to success at the plate and on the basepaths
 
   When Pentecost took to the field (as a DH, actually) for Lansing, it marked his first game in almost two years.  Shut down after only 25 games with Vancouver after being drafted 11th overall by the Blue Jays in 2014, it took three surgeries to properly repair his throwing shoulder.
   Pentecost was limited to DH duties all year, but continued to work on his receiving skills on the sideline, and will continue to do so at Instructs.  The plan is to have him back behind the plate by spring training, meaning that 2017 will be a huge year for Pentecost.  It usually takes several hundred minor league games to develop a catcher, but Pentecost may have to cram a lot into a few years.
  For now, the big club is set with Russell Martin signed for 3 more seasons, and the acquisition of Reese McGuire this summer has helped to shore up a position that was becoming dangerously thin in the organization.  This buys Pentecost some valuable development time.
   Pentecost has a compact swing, and sprays the ball to all fields.  He is not the prototypical lumbering, base-clogging Catcher - he was labelled one of the best athletes in his draft class.  He showed some pop (10 Homers between Dunedin and Lansing - two tough HR parks - in just over 300 PAs), but his 32% K rate is on the high side for a guy with good speed.  Some of that may have been due to rust, but Pentecost needs to put the ball in play more.
    Pentecost will likely start the season at Dunedin, with a possible move to AA by mid-season.
In this video clip, Pentecost shows both his power and speed:

9.  T.J Zeuch RHP
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook: mid-rotation starter
Calling Card:  heavy fastball that bores in on right-handed hitters
   Zeuch missed the first month of his college season with a groin injury, and because his Pitt Panthers were eliminated from NCAA play in May, the 1st round pick didn't pitch until early July.  So, we didn't see a lot of the 6'7" righty.
   But rest assured, we will see plenty next year.
   Zeuch made 6 starts for Vancouver and Lansing, usually limited to around 75 pitches per outing.  He sat 92-94 with his fastball, and will no doubt be working on his secondary pitches at Instructs.
   With his size, Zeuch gets late life on his fastball, which gets in on hitters in a hurry.  He has a fair amount of sinking movement on his sinker, and his slider is probably his best off-speed pitch.  In his time with Vancouver, he missed bats, and generated a lot of weak contact:

   Zeuch will return to Lansing to start 2016.  Even though his mechanics may not need as much refining as did Harris', chances are we'll see a different Zeuch next season.  

10.  Bo Bichette SS/2B
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook:  power-hitting 2B
Calling Card:  elite bat speed

   The 2nd round pick this year laid waste to GCL pitching, putting up a video game-like line of .427/.451/.732 despite missing over a month after an emergency appendectomy in July.
   Almost any GCL stats should come with a disclaimer (his brother Dante hit .342/.446/.505 there in 2011, but hasn't hit above .271 since then), but it's hard not to be impressed with Bichette's approach, and the number of balls he squared up in Florida.
   Drafted as a SS, Bichette will be given a chance to stick there, but he will likely wind up at 2nd or possibly 3rd if his power continues to develop.  He has some of the fast-twitch reflexes necessary to play short, but his arm can be erratic. Scouts were concerned about his hitting mechanics prior to the draft, particularly his set-up, but it's hard to argue with the results.
   Our good internet friend Chris King, who evaluates pro and amateur players and lives not far from the Jays minor league complex, was impressed:

@brendonkuhn @CharlieCaskey easily best bat I've seen this year and having the most impact of any bat I've ever seen at this level

— Chris King (@StatsKing) July 16, 2016

   As an added bonus, Bichette and his brother Dante Jr were able to suit up for Brazil in their World Baseball Classic Qualifier in Brooklyn this past week.  Playing SS, Bichette showed both his upside and inexperience.  In one inning, he deftly fielded a groundball on the short hop, throwing across his body on the run to nip the runner at first.  Two batters later, he dove to his left to spear a sharply hit groundball, only to throw the ball wildly over his brother's head at 1st.  At the plate, in the pair of at bats I saw, he showed good patience in the first, not expanding his strike zone, and went the other way with a fastball for a base hit.  In his next plate appearance, perhaps a little frustrated at the steady diet of breaking balls he was seeing, he chased a pitch outside of the strike zone for strike three.
   Gil Kim calls Bichette one of the most projectable hitters in the system, and despite pre-draft concerns about his swing, the organization will not tinker with it at Instructs:

 We are not concerned with his mechanics or defense, but we will work in Instructs on getting him caught up with some ABs that he missed during the season. 

   Bichette was recently named the GCL's 4th best prospect by Baseball America, and gave this evaluation:

With hitting mannerisms reminiscent of Josh Donaldson, Bichette gears up for his swing with a leg kick, cranks his back elbow with a deep load, then accelerates the bat head into the hitting zone thanks to terrific bat speed. He keeps the barrel on plane through the zone for a long time, showing a mature approach and polished feel to hit for his age, and he quiets his swing when he gets into two-strike counts. He hits to all fields and drives the ball with plus power.

 It will not be a surprise at all if Bichette skips two levels to join Vladdy Jr at Lansing to start 2017.  If not for his appendectomy, he likely would have spent August playing under the lights with Bluefield, anyway.  You can judge his swing for yourself in this pre-draft video:

Update:   A few days after publishing this post, an alert reader pointed out the Bichette had been hospitalized for acute appendicitis.  Bichette had actually not been feeling well for several days in mid July, but was told by a doctor that what he had was viral, and would pass.  Bichette tried to soldier on for a few days, but could go no further, and went to the emergency ward.  There, doctors discovered that his appendix had in fact burst, but his body was slowly absorbing the toxins - Bichette joked that he performed surgery on himself.
   As someone who had his appendix rupture as it was being removed, I can only marvel at Bichette.  I have never been so sick in all my life.