First Look at the Rule 5 Draft

Wil Browning
Clutchlings photo

   The Blue Jays have some roster decisions to make in advance of Major League Baseball's Rule 5 draft next month.
   The Rule 5 draft has been around for over half a century, and while it has undergone numerous revisions over the course of its history, its purpose has been to keep teams from stockpiling talent in the minor leagues. Roberto Clemente was one of the first Rule 5 draftees, and the Blue Jays have used it well to upgrade their roster over the years.  Willie Upshaw was the first player they took in the Rule 5 in 1977, and he helped bring the club into contention in the 1980s, along with George Bell, who they took from the Phillies in 1981 in a great tale of deep scouting work.  
      
   Players are eligible for the December 10th Rule 5 draft if by the deadline (Friday, November 20th):
-they are not on their team's 40-man roster prior to the draft;
-were 18 or younger on the June 5th preceding their signing, and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft since that signing;
-were 19 or older, and this is their fourth Rule 5 draft.
   Drafting teams must pay $50 000 to the team they select players from, and must keep them on their 25-man roster for the entire following season, or offer them back to their original team for half that price.

   Five players from last year's Rule 5 draft stuck with the teams that took them, down from a high of 11 in 2014.  Joe Biagini, of course, was a revelation in middle relief for the Blue Jays this year, and along with Matt Bowman, who the Cards selected, have created a new template for the draft - the mediocre minor league starter who experienced an uptick in velocity and/or improved command with a pared-down arsenal of pitches once moved into a relief role.
   I don't want to say that I have a crystal ball, and Biagini's success was one of this season's more pleasant surprises, but I did have some optimism, as I wrote last year:

 Clearly, Biagini pitches to contact, and I would hazard a guess that his fastball is of the two-seamer variety.  MLB.com suggests that he has a shot at a back-of-the-rotation spot, but with that part of the Blue Jays roster more than full at the moment, perhaps the club is thinking of auditioning him in the departed Liam Hendriks' role in long relief, especially with new GM Ross Atkins expressing a preference for durable bullpen arms who can get guys out.  The 6'4", groundball-inducing Biagini fills the first role, but not necessarily the second, with the traditional bullpen arm being of the flame-throwing variety.  Pitching in relief, Hendriks experienced a bump in his fastball velocity this season, and it's likely the same could be projected for Biagini. He already generates plenty of weak contact, so maybe this represents a bit of a paradigm shift for the Jays - K's from relievers are nice, but with the vastly improved Jays' defence, may not be a necessity.

  Rule 5 players are always a gamble, but position players are even more so in this era of 8-man bullpens. In 1984, they rolled the dice, hoping that the Indians wouldn't want Kelly Gruber back after drafting him, and that move paid off, as the Indians gave up on the former 1st rounder and declined to take him back, allowing Toronto to send him to the minors for further seasoning. The Blue Jays could afford to stash OF Lou Thornton on their bench in 1985, because Bell, Lloyd Moseby, and Jesse Barfield were just entering their primes, and all played over 150 games that year.
 
   The other side of the Rule 5 coin is which players an organization should protect.  And which players currently on the 40-man who no longer figure in the team's plans.  R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole would be the first two names to come to mind in the latter category.

   From the National Post, here is a good breakdown of the 40-man as it currently stands:

Under contract for 2017

3B Josh Donaldson
SS Troy Tulowitzki
C Russell Martin
OF Melvin Upton Jr.
1B Justin Smoak

SP Marco Estrada
SP J.A. Happ
SP Francisco Liriano

Team option for 2017

RP Jason Grilli ($3M)

Team control for 2017
Arbitration-eligible

OF Ezequiel Carrera
IF Darwin Barney
C Josh Thole
UT Chris Colabello
RP Aaron Loup

Pre-arbitration

2B Devon Travis
OF Kevin Pillar
IF Ryan Goins
OF Dalton Pompey
OF Darrell Ceciliani

SP Aaron Sanchez
SP Marcus Stroman
SP Mike Bolsinger
RP Roberto Osuna
RP Bo Schultz
RP Ryan Tepera

Free agents

OF Jose Bautista
1B Edwin Encarnacion
OF Michael Saunders
C Dioner Navarro

SP R.A. Dickey
RP Brett Cecil
RP Joaquin Benoit
RP Scott Feldman
RP Gavin Floyd

    Atkins has already indicated that Grilli will be brought back, and is hopeful of re-signing Benoit.
Floyd is still on the 60-day DL, and while he's making progress from his torn lat injury, there's no timetable for his return.  Under just about any scenario, it's hard to see Saunders or Navarro returning, and the futures of Bautista, Encarnacion, and Cecil are cloudy.

   So, barring any acquisitions, there should be several roster spots open in a few weeks.

   Here are the players who are Rule 5 eligible unless they are added to the 40-man by late November:

              Player         Acquired       2016 Level

Anthony Alford	2012 draft (3)	High A
Josh Almonte	2012 draft (22)	High A
Deiferson Barreto	2011 IFA	Short Season
Ryan Borucki	2012 draft (15)	Low A
L.B. Dantzler	2013 draft (14)	High A
DJ Davis	2012 draft (1)	High A
JD Davis	2013 draft (15)	High A
Shane Dawson	2012 (17)	AA
David Harris	2013 (36)	High A
Javier Hernandez	2012 IFA	Short Season
Juan Kelly	2012 IFA	Low A
Dan Lietz	2013 draft (5)	Low A
Tim Mayza	2013 draft (13)	High A
Mitch Nay	2012 draft (1 supp)	Injured
Rodrigo Orozco	2012 IFA	Short Season
Angel Perdomo	2011 IFA	Low A
Mike Reeves	2013 draft (21)	High A
Francisco Rios	2012 IFA	High A
Chris Rowley	2013 NDFA	High A
Matt Smoral	2012 draft (1 supp)	Short Season
Richard Urena	2012 IFA	AA

    There are several names that jump out from that list, including Alford, Perdomo, Rios, and Urena.
Of that group, it's hard to see any team gambling on any of them, however. Urena may be the closest to MLB-ready, and he should be added to the 40-man this year. Of the other three, none have played above A ball. Perdomo may profile as a back of the bullpen power arm one day, which is possibly one of the reasons why the organization opted to keep him in Lansing for the entire season - had he pitched and succeeded in High A, some team may have taken a gamble on him. Alford is currently tearing up the Arizona Fall League at the moment, but he is still likely too raw for a team to pick him. Just the same, the cost would be relatively low for a club to take him to spring training to see what they have.
And then there is a group of players who were previously eligible, but were not selected:

  Player Acquired              Year First Eligible          2016 Level

Jake Anderson	2011 draft (1 supp)	2015	Short Season
Johnny Anderson	2008 draft (28)	2013	AA
Jon Berti	2011 draft (18)	2014	AA
Will Browning	2012 NDFA	2015	AA
Adonys Cardona	2010 IFA	2014	High A
Taylor Cole	2011 draft (29)	2014	AA
Matt Dean	2011 draft (13)	2015	High A
Emilio Guerrero	2011 IFA	2015	AA
Jason Leblebijian	2012 draft (25)	2015	AA
Derrick Loveless	2011 draft (27)	2015	AA
Christian Lopes	2011 draft (7)	2015	AA
Tom Robson	2011 draft (4)	2015	Low A
Dwight Smith Jr	2011 draft (1 supp)	2015	AA
John Stilson	2011 draft (3)	2014	AA
Dickie Joe Thon	2010 draft (5)	2014	High A

  No one on this list leaps out, although had he been healthy this year, Cole might have become a conversion project like Biagini. Submariner Browning limited Eastern League hitters to a .215 average, but while his funky delivery creates some deception, his velocity is not overwhelming.  Cardona was healthy for the first time in several seasons, and used carefully in a bullpen role, established a career high in innings, but he would be too much of a risk at this point, having not made the leap from High to AA yet.  Stilson has been tabbed as a back end of the bullpen arm in waiting for several years, but his health too has been an issue.  He had a decent year at AA, but has been lit up in Arizona this fall.  Smith may have fallen off the prospect radar after repeating AA, but there still could be room for him on some MLB roster one day as a fourth outfielder.  He will likely go unclaimed if he's not put on the 40 man this year once again.

   Since the strength of the Blue Jays farm system at the moment is more at the lower levels, the team does not have many critical decisions to make from a roster standpoint.  There will likely be several openings, but there are few prospects who they will absolutely have to protect.  Atkins told the media this past week that the club will look to shore up the bullpen via a variety of means, including the Rule 5.  Given Biagini's success this year,  that may be a more difficult task, as other teams will likely be in the same marketplace.  

First Sip of the Rule 5 Draft

   Baseball's Rule 5 draft has often been less than the sum of its parts.
Some intriguing names get offered up every year, but teams rarely, if ever, take a chance on them.
For the uninitiated, the Rule 5 draft actually goes back to the 1950s, when it was instituted to prevent teams from signing hot young prospects to huge bonuses, then stockpile those prospects in the minors for years.  It has undergone many revisions, but the main intent is to give a deadline for teams to put their prospects on a 40-man roster, in order to give those players an opportunity.
   The draft can be risky - teams must keep players they draft on their 25-man roster for an entire season, or offer them back to their original organization for half the $50 000 price tag they came with.
   Players are eligible for the December 10th Rule 5 draft if by the deadline (Friday, November 20th):

-they are not on their team's 40-man roster prior to the draft;
-were 18 or younger on the June 5th preceding their signing, and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft since that signing;
-were 19 or older, and this is their fourth Rule 5 draft.

   Prior to 2007, teams had four and three years to protect players.  The extra year has allowed most teams to take their players' development slower - many players in the draft have yet to play past AA.
   The draft has a fairly lengthy history.  Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente was one of the first Rule 5 draftees.  More recently, Johan Santana, Jason Werth, Bobby Bonilla, and some young Dominican prospect named Jose Bautista were selected.  The Blue Jays, for their part, have a lengthy history on Rule 5 day.  In 1977, they grabbed a young 1st Baseman from the Yankees organization by the name of Willie Upshaw, who went on to play an important role as the team broke into contention in the mid-80s.  Kelly Gruber and Manny Lee, who later acquired World Series rings with the team, were Rule 5 pick ups.  And perhaps one of the best hitters in club history, George Bell, was stolen out from under the nose of the Phillies in a great story of cloak-and-dagger work.
   The Rule 5 draft has fallen on some fallen times of late.  With most teams employing two more pitchers than they did twenty years ago, many can't afford to draft a position player who may have to spend the year glued to the bench.  Relief pitchers are somewhat less of a gamble, which is why 69 of the player selected between 2008 and last year were pitchers who wound up in the bullpen - and at that, half of those players were returned to their original team.  The Blue Jays have been mostly quiet during the last few years of the draft.  Pitcher Zech Zinicola was taken from the Nationals in 2009, but returned before spring training the following spring was over.  In 2013, they chose P Brian Moran from the Mariners, but sent him to the Angels for International pool money.
    Last year was called a banner year for Rule 5 draftees.  The Mets picked up Sean Gilmartin, the Phillies Odubel Herrera, the Athletics Mark Canha, and the Rangers acquired Delino DeShields Jr.  
    Because of Alex Anthopoulos' trade deadline frenzy, there is a smaller than usual number of Blue Jays prospects eligible.  Among those who may be exposed to the draft for the first time are:

Dwight Smith Jr OF
   The 2011 Ist Round Supplemental pick has moved steadily through the system, drawing good reviews wherever he's played.  He battled injuries this year, posting a line of .265/.335/.376 at New Hampshire. Smith does have enough pop for a corner outfield position, and the organization experimented with him at 2nd Base in the Arizona Fall League in 2014.  It's hard to see a team risking as 25-man spot on a player who has had one season at AA, so he's not highly likely to be put on the 40-man, although it's not out of the realm of possibility to see him in the Majors one day.

Matt Dean  1B/DH
   Dean's 14 Home Runs in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is an accomplishment worthy of noting, but he's a long shot to have a big league career at this point.  The 2013 Appy League batting champ also struck out 139 times in 521 PAs this year, so there's plenty of miss to his approach.  It won't be a risk to expose him to the draft.

Tom Robson P
   The BC native made his return from Tommy John surgery mid way through the summer, and reports on his velocity were good.  Command, not so much.  Robson is a potential sleeper arm, and if he refines that command next season, he will definitely be a 40-man candidate.  This year, however, he'll be left unprotected.  He's pitched only 26 innings above Low A so far in his career.

From 2014, the Blue Jays currently have a few players to make decisions upon:

Andy Burns  IF
   Burns hit .293/.351/.372 in 126 games with Buffalo this season, playing primarily 2nd and 3rd.  Drafted as a SS, he can also play 1B and the outfield, which helps boost his value.  In this age of dozen-man pitching staffs, there is a premium on bench players who can play a multiple of positions.   Burns should be added to the 40-man later this week.

Taylor Cole RHP
   Cole was considered one of the minor's top fringe prospects last year, when a 11.66 K/9 rate at Dunedin opened some eyes.  He did not miss bats at the same rate at AA this year.  Cole throws a fastball that tops out at 91, but has a change that can be devastating.  The surprise here is that the Blue Jays have not cut down on his repertoire and treid him in the bullpen as they did with Ryan Tepera.  Cole is a considerable longshot, but it's possible a team that views him as first righty up in the pen kind of guy may take a chance on him.

Blake McFarland  RHP
   A talented artist as well as an emerging  late-blooming (at 27) power arm, McFarland has pitched out of the pen for the last four seasons, and only a log jam of arms at Buffalo kept him at AA for most of the year, where he dominated Eastern League hitters, walking only 6 and striking out 62 in 47 innings.  He's a likely candidate to claim one of those final 40-man spots.

John Stilson RHP
   The Blue Jays gambled and left the hard-throwing, but oft-injured Stilson unprotected last November, and no one took a chance on his surgically repaired (and not for the first time) right shoulder.  Stilson has averaged almost a K per inning in four minor league seasons, but has missed time due to injury in almost every single one of them.  He made only one appearance for Dunedin this year in May, before being shut down for the remainder of the season.  If not for his health issues, Stilson would have been placed on the 40-man and made his MLB debut long ago.  If teams were a bit spooked by him last year, they will be downright scared this year.

Dickie Joe Thon UT
   The son of the former big leaguer of the same name was a 5th round choice in 2010.  He has moved slowly through the system, repeating Lansing last year because of a glut of middle infielders ahead of him.  Promoted to Dunedin, he filled a utility role, but struggled with the bat.  He played for Puerto Rico at the Premier12 tournament in Taiwan.  There is no chance a team will select him.

Danny Barnes RHP
   A 35th round pick out of Princeton won't get a lot of fanfare or move very quickly in an organization, but Barnes was on the fast track after saving 34 games for Lansing in 2012.  Barnes lost 2013 to Tommy John surgery, however, and had mixed results with Dunedin in 2014 as he tried to rediscover his command.  It came back with a flourish in AA this year, striking out 74 in 60 innings.  Barnes does not light up the radar gun, but he gets the job done.  If he is not protected, there's not an overwhelming chance that he will be selected, but some teams might be tempted by his career minor league 12.0K/9, and over 4:1 K:BB ratio.


   As of this writing, there are 7 spots open on the Blue Jays 40-man roster after a number of moves earlier this month.  It's likely some names will be added after Friday deadline - some from within the organization, and some from outside.