Projecting the Rosters - Dunedin

The Dunedin Blue Jays are Toronto's longest-serving minor league affiliate.  Toronto has fielded a team in their Florida State League home since 1987, when they revived a franchise that had been mothballed since 1978.  Local ownership could not be found, so the team assumed control of the team when it returned to FSL play.  The D-Jays are one of the lowest-drawing teams in the league, consistently ranking last or next-to-last in attendance for two decades.  The FSL is not one of the minors' attendance leaders, but Toronto prospects usually play for crowds of about 750 in their home park.  That's probably not a major concern for the organization, however.  In addition to acting as another rung on the developmental ladder, Dunedin is a place where prospects with some medical issues can be housed in order to keep a closer eye on them.
   Hopefully, with the stadium upgrades that the Blue Jays and the City of Dunedin agreed upon last fall, that might translate into more fans for the players when they are completed by the spring of 2019.

   These roster projections are a matter of conjecture.  I make them by considering the development of each player, and trying to match it with the goals the organization likely has for that player.  With minor league spring training still just under two months away, many changes can take place. Injuries, stalled or accelerated development, and roster moves at other levels all could have an impact on prospect placement.

Catcher

	Position	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/SLG
C	Max Pentecost	23	Lansing-Dun	.302/361/.486
C	Ryan Hissey	22	Lansing	.246/.310/.337

   Pentecost DH'd exclusively since returning in early May last year, his first game action in almost two years while he recovered from shoulder surgeries. While his ultimate position may be somewhere else on the diamond, the plan for this year is to have him return behind the plate to get much needed reps.  Hissey did the bulk of the Catching at Lansing last year, and even though his bat tailed off a bit from 2015, he improved his receiving skills by leaps and bounds.  Michael De La Cruz and Justin Atkinson have served in back up roles (Atkinson in several positions), but the Blue Jays would likely prefer a more polished receiver like Hissey to give Pentecost regular breaks.

Infield

1B	Juan Kelly	22	Lansing	.274/.356/.448
2B	John LaPrise	23	Lansing-Dun	.261/.336/.318
SS	JC Cardenas	22	Lansing	.206/.279/.294
3B	Carl Wise	22	Lansing	..240/.291/.329
UT	Ryan Metzler	23	Lansing	.164/.260/.246
1B/OF	Connor Panas	23	Lansing	.231/.343/.430

    Not the strongest assemblage of talent in the organization, Kelly made the most progress of the group, and Panas tied for 3rd in the Midwest League in Home Runs.

Outfield

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/SLG
OF	Josh Almonte	22	Lansing-Dun	.199/.245/.275
OF	DJ Davis	22	Dunedin	.197/.295/.263
OF	Andrew Guillotte	23	Lansing-Dun	.244/.315/.337
OF	Lane Thomas	21	Lansing	.216/.330/.348

  

  Again, not a stronghold of prospects.  Davis will likely repeat High A, and Thomas has had trouble staying healthy the last two seasons, although moving him back to CF seemed to help his game last year.

Starting Pitching

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	WHIP/K/9/BB/9
SP	Jon Harris	23	Lansing-Dun	1.15/6.9/2.6
SP	Franciso Rios	21	Lansing-Dun	1.14/8.1/2.2
SP	Angel Perdomo	22	Lansing	1.18/8.7/3.9
SP	Ryan Borucki	22	Dunedin-Lan	1.35/7.8/2.5
SP	Jordan Romano	23	Lansing	1.05/8.9/3.3
SP	Clinton Hollon	22	DNP

   This is one of the strongest rotations in the system.  Depending on what kind of roster additions are made at New Hampshire and Buffalo, Harris may begin the year at AA, despite the organization preferring to keep prospects at one level for at least the equivalent of one full season.

   Rios was dominant at Lansing before his May promotion to Dunedin, and despite his numbers taking a bit of a step back at the higher level, he missed more bats in the FSL.  Perdomo and Rios both were left unprotected at Rule 5 draft time, but both went unclaimed.  Borucki, making a comeback after missing most of 2015, started in Dunedin last year, but struggled, and went to Lansing when the Michigan weather warmed up.  He finished 2nd in the MWL in ERA, and was added to the 40-man roster in November. Romano came back from injury as well, and quietly had one of the best seasons of any Blue Jays pitching prospects, striking out a batter an inning - his 2.11 ERA would have led the MWL if he had enough innings to qualify.  Hollon is the forgotten man, his career interrupted by Tommy John, and a pair of drug suspensions.  Hollon was invited to Instructs last fall, and is looking to get his career back on track.

Relief Pitching

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	WHIP/K/9/BB/9
RP	Andrew Case	24	Lansing	1.10/7.2/2.3
RP	Dusty Isaacs	25	Lansing-Dun	1.11/10.6/2.3
RP	Dan Lietz	22	Lansing	1.35/7.1/3.9
RP	Danny Young	22	Lansing	1.50/6.9/3.9
RP	Kirby Snead	22	Lansing	1.34/6.0/1.1
RP	Tom Robson	23	Dunedin-Lan	2.07/6.6/6.5
RP	Josh DeGraaf	23	Lansing	1.23/7.4/2.5

   Again, another strength of this potential roster.  Case missed part of 2016 after failing to take a drug test, but was solid along with Isaacs, Lietz, Snead, and Young in Lansing's bullpen last year.  In his return from Tommy John, Robson seemed poised for great things last spring, but struggled with his command all year, and was eventually moved into relief.  DeGraaf's starting and relieving versatility will be a help when double headers start to pile up.  

    If you've been keeping track, this list actually has 26 names on it, instead of the maximum of 25, because I had trouble finding places for some of these players.  Pentecost and maybe Panas are the only impact bats in this lineup, but the pitching staff will likely keep the D-Jays in the majority of their games.  Still, while the post-season is not a priority, it's hard to see this team earning a playoff berth.

   If you want to follow the D-Jays progress this year, your options are limited.  Games are not streamed through MiLB.com's website, so listening online is about the only way to follow.  

A Look at Ryan Borucki

Kyle Castle/Lansing Lugnuts/MiLB photo

  Last month, the Blue Jays had some 40-man roster decisions to make in advance of this month's Rule 5 draft.
  Specifically, they had to decide which of three pitchers who have not competed above A ball, but might make attractive bullpen options at the MLB level, to protect.
   This could not have been an easy decision. The trio included:
-Francisco Rios, a 2012 free agent signing from Mexico, began 2016 with Lansing, but after a month of dominating Midwest League hitters, was promoted to Dunedin;
-LHP Angel Perdomo, a 6"6" 2011 late IFA signing from the Dominican, who led the MWL in strikeouts this year, averaging just over 11K/9;
-Southpaw Ryan Borucki, a 2012 15th round pick who has had trouble staying healthy, and just finished his first full season with the organization.


   This could not have been an easy decision.  Rios and Borucki rely on command and secondary pitches, while Perdomo's main weapon is his 95 mph fastball - Fangraphs' Chris Mitchell suggests that some MLB team may try to stash him in their bullpen as a 3rd lefty/longman.  Ultimately, they chose Borucki, whose grit, advanced feel for pitching, and command of his whole repertoire of pitches led the Blue Jays to believe both that he was a better long-term prospect, and that he might be too tempting an arm to pass through the draft.

  Borucki was considered one of the top prep lefties in Illinois in his draft year, until a torn UCL caused his stock to fall.  The Blue Jays were not put off by his medicals, and took him in the 15th round, signing him for 3rd round money (Borucki had committed to Iowa).  Borucki tried to continue to rehabilitate his elbow, but was shut down that year after only four outings with Rookie-Level Bluefield.  He ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery the following spring, wiping out his 2013 season.
  Borucki came back with a vengeance in 2014, pitching at both Bluefield (where he was named the Appalachian League's 12th best prospect, despite only pitching a month there) and Vancouver.  Baseball America was high on him:

He projects for at least average control with a chance to be plus. His delivery has improved significantly, and he throws with significantly less effort from his loose, quick arm, while working over the ball more and not leaking with his hips. Borucki's fastball was 90-94 early in the season and sat 88-92, touching 94 later in the season. He relies on his two-seamer that has at least average sink and arm-side run. Borucki demonstrates advanced feel for a changeup with plus potential. His curveball is a below-average to fringe-average offering, and Borucki could begin throwing a slider this offseason. He has a starter's build at a lanky 6-foot-4 with a high waist and significant projection remaining.

   The brakes were applied to his development again in 2015, however, when shoulder, elbow, and back issues limited his season to 6 innings.  Borucki was ticketed for Lansing this season, but was held back in Dunedin for April while the weather in the Midwest warmed up, and to be close to the Blue Jays medical facilities.  Pitching against the more advanced FSL hitters, Borucki was still shaking off the rust from a year's inactivity off, giving up 40 hits in 20 innings.  His career seemed to be in jeopardy when he finally reached Lansing in mid-May.
   His turnaround could not have been more sudden or dramatic.
   In his MWL debut, Borucki gave up only one earned run in 5 innings.  Two starts later, he threw 6 scoreless frames, and in June, threw a pair of back-to-back games that were easily the best of his career: an 8 inning, 5-hit/1ER, 0BB, 8K effort, followed by 7 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball, with 6 strikeouts and (again) no walks.  Here's his 6th K from that 2nd start:

   Borucki finished 2nd in the league in ERA, 4th in WHIP, and fanned almost a batter an inning while tossing a career-high 115 frames.  His August 8th start gave some insight into why the Blue Jays ultimately decided to protect him on the 40-man.

   Borucki struggled slightly with his fastball command in the 1st inning of this start against West Michigan, but received a nice 5-4-3 double play after issuing a one out walk to finish his 11-pitch inning.  In the 2nd, he began to use his change up, which has excellent depth to it.  That pitch may prove one day to be the most effective in his arsenal, and may already be the best in the organization outside of Marco Estrada.  After falling behind 2-0 to the leadoff hitter, he fanned that man on a full-count change, then got ahead of the next two hitters, allowing him to use his secondaries to get a 6-3 groundout and a called 3rd strike to end an inning in which he threw 15 pitches.
  Borucki gave up his only solid contact on the day, a 1-out single, in the 3rd,  and began to spot his fastball and slider more effectively after giving up a walk following that base hit.  His concentration wavered a bit with runners on 1st and 2nd, giving up a double steal after failing to look back at the runner on 2nd who had taken a big walking lead the previous pitch.  He needed 18 pitches to retire the side in the 3rd.  He did not show a great move to first in this outing, and may have to work more at holding runners closer.
   The 4th inning saw Borcuki really settle into a groove, retiring the side in order on 9 pitches with a pair of Ks, and 4 whiffs.  His fastball sat at 92, and he had improved command of his slider to LHH, and his change to RHH.  He was able to locate the ball seemingly at will, setting up hitters by locating to either side of the plate.
  The only blemish on Borcuki's 5th inning of work was a two-out, four-pitch walk, with CF Lane Thomas making a sliding catch on a sinking liner to finish the inning.  At 67 pitches, Borucki, whose pitch count had been reduced as he blew by his previous career innings high, was finished for the night.  He threw 44 strikes, gave up only one hit, while walking three and fanning five.  He recorded five outs via groundballs, and two by flyouts.  He threw 12 first-pitch strikes to 18 of the hitters he faced, and recorded 9 swings-and-misses on the night.  Working from the first base side of the rubber, Borucki's arm angle makes him extremely tough on left-handed hitters, while his change keeps the righties off balance.

  Borucki is a student of the game, and watches his teammates' bullpen sessions between starts.  His delivery has undergone considerable change over the past year.  When he arrived at Lansing, he worked with Lugnuts' pitching coach Jeff Ware and minor league instructor Sal Fasano at adding more deception to his delivery - the thinking was that hitters in the Florida State League were getting too good a look at his pitches. Borucki learned his change from his father, who pitched in the Phillies organization.  Dad wouldn't allow him to throw a curve until his senior year of high school, so Borucki learned to change speeds and master one of the more difficult pitches to throw.  When his fastball or slider location is off, he always seems to have command of that change.
   At 22, there is little projection remaining for Borucki, but we've seen so little of him that it's hard to get a true handle on his ceiling just yet.  Of the trio, he probably projects the highest in terms on long-term potential as a starter.  He has a solid pitcher's frame, is athletic, and gets a good downward plane on his pitches.  He has a four-pitch mix that can turn a lineup over.  If he can stay healthy, he can begin to move quickly through the system, now that his option clock will start ticking next year.

 

First Look at the Rule 5 Draft

Wil Browning
Clutchlings photo

   The Blue Jays have some roster decisions to make in advance of Major League Baseball's Rule 5 draft next month.
   The Rule 5 draft has been around for over half a century, and while it has undergone numerous revisions over the course of its history, its purpose has been to keep teams from stockpiling talent in the minor leagues. Roberto Clemente was one of the first Rule 5 draftees, and the Blue Jays have used it well to upgrade their roster over the years.  Willie Upshaw was the first player they took in the Rule 5 in 1977, and he helped bring the club into contention in the 1980s, along with George Bell, who they took from the Phillies in 1981 in a great tale of deep scouting work.  
      
   Players are eligible for the December 10th Rule 5 draft if by the deadline (Friday, November 20th):
-they are not on their team's 40-man roster prior to the draft;
-were 18 or younger on the June 5th preceding their signing, and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft since that signing;
-were 19 or older, and this is their fourth Rule 5 draft.
   Drafting teams must pay $50 000 to the team they select players from, and must keep them on their 25-man roster for the entire following season, or offer them back to their original team for half that price.

   Five players from last year's Rule 5 draft stuck with the teams that took them, down from a high of 11 in 2014.  Joe Biagini, of course, was a revelation in middle relief for the Blue Jays this year, and along with Matt Bowman, who the Cards selected, have created a new template for the draft - the mediocre minor league starter who experienced an uptick in velocity and/or improved command with a pared-down arsenal of pitches once moved into a relief role.
   I don't want to say that I have a crystal ball, and Biagini's success was one of this season's more pleasant surprises, but I did have some optimism, as I wrote last year:

 Clearly, Biagini pitches to contact, and I would hazard a guess that his fastball is of the two-seamer variety.  MLB.com suggests that he has a shot at a back-of-the-rotation spot, but with that part of the Blue Jays roster more than full at the moment, perhaps the club is thinking of auditioning him in the departed Liam Hendriks' role in long relief, especially with new GM Ross Atkins expressing a preference for durable bullpen arms who can get guys out.  The 6'4", groundball-inducing Biagini fills the first role, but not necessarily the second, with the traditional bullpen arm being of the flame-throwing variety.  Pitching in relief, Hendriks experienced a bump in his fastball velocity this season, and it's likely the same could be projected for Biagini. He already generates plenty of weak contact, so maybe this represents a bit of a paradigm shift for the Jays - K's from relievers are nice, but with the vastly improved Jays' defence, may not be a necessity.

  Rule 5 players are always a gamble, but position players are even more so in this era of 8-man bullpens. In 1984, they rolled the dice, hoping that the Indians wouldn't want Kelly Gruber back after drafting him, and that move paid off, as the Indians gave up on the former 1st rounder and declined to take him back, allowing Toronto to send him to the minors for further seasoning. The Blue Jays could afford to stash OF Lou Thornton on their bench in 1985, because Bell, Lloyd Moseby, and Jesse Barfield were just entering their primes, and all played over 150 games that year.
 
   The other side of the Rule 5 coin is which players an organization should protect.  And which players currently on the 40-man who no longer figure in the team's plans.  R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole would be the first two names to come to mind in the latter category.

   From the National Post, here is a good breakdown of the 40-man as it currently stands:

Under contract for 2017

3B Josh Donaldson
SS Troy Tulowitzki
C Russell Martin
OF Melvin Upton Jr.
1B Justin Smoak

SP Marco Estrada
SP J.A. Happ
SP Francisco Liriano

Team option for 2017

RP Jason Grilli ($3M)

Team control for 2017
Arbitration-eligible

OF Ezequiel Carrera
IF Darwin Barney
C Josh Thole
UT Chris Colabello
RP Aaron Loup

Pre-arbitration

2B Devon Travis
OF Kevin Pillar
IF Ryan Goins
OF Dalton Pompey
OF Darrell Ceciliani

SP Aaron Sanchez
SP Marcus Stroman
SP Mike Bolsinger
RP Roberto Osuna
RP Bo Schultz
RP Ryan Tepera

Free agents

OF Jose Bautista
1B Edwin Encarnacion
OF Michael Saunders
C Dioner Navarro

SP R.A. Dickey
RP Brett Cecil
RP Joaquin Benoit
RP Scott Feldman
RP Gavin Floyd

    Atkins has already indicated that Grilli will be brought back, and is hopeful of re-signing Benoit.
Floyd is still on the 60-day DL, and while he's making progress from his torn lat injury, there's no timetable for his return.  Under just about any scenario, it's hard to see Saunders or Navarro returning, and the futures of Bautista, Encarnacion, and Cecil are cloudy.

   So, barring any acquisitions, there should be several roster spots open in a few weeks.

   Here are the players who are Rule 5 eligible unless they are added to the 40-man by late November:

              Player         Acquired       2016 Level

Anthony Alford	2012 draft (3)	High A
Josh Almonte	2012 draft (22)	High A
Deiferson Barreto	2011 IFA	Short Season
Ryan Borucki	2012 draft (15)	Low A
L.B. Dantzler	2013 draft (14)	High A
DJ Davis	2012 draft (1)	High A
JD Davis	2013 draft (15)	High A
Shane Dawson	2012 (17)	AA
David Harris	2013 (36)	High A
Javier Hernandez	2012 IFA	Short Season
Juan Kelly	2012 IFA	Low A
Dan Lietz	2013 draft (5)	Low A
Tim Mayza	2013 draft (13)	High A
Mitch Nay	2012 draft (1 supp)	Injured
Rodrigo Orozco	2012 IFA	Short Season
Angel Perdomo	2011 IFA	Low A
Mike Reeves	2013 draft (21)	High A
Francisco Rios	2012 IFA	High A
Chris Rowley	2013 NDFA	High A
Matt Smoral	2012 draft (1 supp)	Short Season
Richard Urena	2012 IFA	AA

    There are several names that jump out from that list, including Alford, Perdomo, Rios, and Urena.
Of that group, it's hard to see any team gambling on any of them, however. Urena may be the closest to MLB-ready, and he should be added to the 40-man this year. Of the other three, none have played above A ball. Perdomo may profile as a back of the bullpen power arm one day, which is possibly one of the reasons why the organization opted to keep him in Lansing for the entire season - had he pitched and succeeded in High A, some team may have taken a gamble on him. Alford is currently tearing up the Arizona Fall League at the moment, but he is still likely too raw for a team to pick him. Just the same, the cost would be relatively low for a club to take him to spring training to see what they have.
And then there is a group of players who were previously eligible, but were not selected:

  Player Acquired              Year First Eligible          2016 Level

Jake Anderson	2011 draft (1 supp)	2015	Short Season
Johnny Anderson	2008 draft (28)	2013	AA
Jon Berti	2011 draft (18)	2014	AA
Will Browning	2012 NDFA	2015	AA
Adonys Cardona	2010 IFA	2014	High A
Taylor Cole	2011 draft (29)	2014	AA
Matt Dean	2011 draft (13)	2015	High A
Emilio Guerrero	2011 IFA	2015	AA
Jason Leblebijian	2012 draft (25)	2015	AA
Derrick Loveless	2011 draft (27)	2015	AA
Christian Lopes	2011 draft (7)	2015	AA
Tom Robson	2011 draft (4)	2015	Low A
Dwight Smith Jr	2011 draft (1 supp)	2015	AA
John Stilson	2011 draft (3)	2014	AA
Dickie Joe Thon	2010 draft (5)	2014	High A

  No one on this list leaps out, although had he been healthy this year, Cole might have become a conversion project like Biagini. Submariner Browning limited Eastern League hitters to a .215 average, but while his funky delivery creates some deception, his velocity is not overwhelming.  Cardona was healthy for the first time in several seasons, and used carefully in a bullpen role, established a career high in innings, but he would be too much of a risk at this point, having not made the leap from High to AA yet.  Stilson has been tabbed as a back end of the bullpen arm in waiting for several years, but his health too has been an issue.  He had a decent year at AA, but has been lit up in Arizona this fall.  Smith may have fallen off the prospect radar after repeating AA, but there still could be room for him on some MLB roster one day as a fourth outfielder.  He will likely go unclaimed if he's not put on the 40 man this year once again.

   Since the strength of the Blue Jays farm system at the moment is more at the lower levels, the team does not have many critical decisions to make from a roster standpoint.  There will likely be several openings, but there are few prospects who they will absolutely have to protect.  Atkins told the media this past week that the club will look to shore up the bullpen via a variety of means, including the Rule 5.  Given Biagini's success this year,  that may be a more difficult task, as other teams will likely be in the same marketplace.