Showing posts with label Joe Biagini. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Biagini. Show all posts

Monday, December 12, 2016

A Look at Glenn Sparkman

   
Brad Glazer/Milb.com photo
   The Blue Jays surprised a number of people (myself included) when they selected RHP Glenn Sparkman from Kansas City in last week's Rule 5 draft.
  Coming off Tommy John surgery last year, Sparkman, a 20th round choice by the Royals in 2013 out of Wharton County (TX) JC, was very much an under-the-radar Rule 5 candidate after pitching 60 innings at 4 levels this year, the highest of which was AA.  Sparkman's 2015 was limited to 4 AA starts.
   "The arrows were pointing right at him," GM Ross Atkins told the media after the draft.  "It was clear he was the guy that we'd like to select if he was still available.  We feel like there might be some upside to his stuff as well."
    Much of the information that we've received about Sparkman since he was drafted is stats-based.  I like to go deeper than that, so I've conducted some research, asked people some questions, pored over his secondary numbers, and watched a number of his 2016 outings online.  Here's a summary of my efforts:

   Sparkman grew up in Ganado, TX, a town of 2 000 about two hours southwest of Houston.  He was not heavily recruited as a high school shortstop, so he walked on at nearby Wharton County CC, where he was converted to pitching.  He struck out less than a batter per inning in his two years there, but he also showed a feel for the strike zone, walking only 8 batters over 78 innings in his final season.
 Sparkman moved quickly through the Royals system, missing bats along the way.  He averaged 11.5K/9 in his first pro season in rookie ball in 2013, and he skipped Low A to start his second season, which he attributes partially to learning how to pitch.  When he arrived at Wharton, he didn't really know how to throw off of a mound, but under the tutelage of his college and then his pro coaches, he made up for lost time in a hurry.
   In his final start in 2014, he felt a strain in his forearm in his final inning of the year, but his elbow felt fine. He woke up the next morning with severe pain in the elbow, but an MRI revealed only a 10% UCL tear, and he was ordered to rest and rehab his arm.  The regimen did not work, however, and he underwent Tommy John in June of 2015.
   Even though minor league back-of-the-baseball-card stats can be incredibly misleading, Sparkman did post the second-lowest ERA in all of minor league baseball in 2014 (and was named Carolina League Pitcher of the Year), and even though he posted an inflated 5.22 ERA this year, take two outings out of that record and you have a 3.93 ERA.  More impressively, despite a 4.58 ERA at his last stop in AA, he had a 3.24 FIP.
   But let's go behind the numbers

   Sparkman showed some obvious signs of rust this year.  His command began to improve as the summer progressed, but his velocity didn't make a full return.  Prior to the surgery, he touched 96, and sat anywhere from 89-94 with his fastball.  Reports this year had him sitting at 90-92.
   Standing on the 3rd base side of the pitching rubber, Sparkman has a smooth, drop and drive delivery, which can be deceptive, both from the angle it presents to right-handed hitters, and the slow-fast tempo of his windup, making him tough on hitters from both sides to time.  He can command his fastball to both sides of the plate, as well as his curve and slider.  His change up has good depth and some glove-side run:




   If the best pitch in baseball is strike one, Sparkman has one of the better ones in minor league baseball. He often gets ahead of hitters (despite his command issues in his comeback this year, he allowed only 10 walks), when his secondary pitches become more effective.  He can also use his fastball in pitchers' counts to induce whiffs, as hitters are often sitting on his secondaries.


 Because he is around the plate so much, Sparkman does give up some contact, but it's not often of the hard variety.  He was victimized by less-than-stellar defence in his AA outings this year, which inflated his numbers.

   A preview of this year's Rule 5 draft by Baseball America made no mention of Sparkman, who was the Royals' 17th-ranked prospect after the 2014 season.  And to tell the truth, given the success of Joe Biagini in his conversion from middling MiLB starter to MLB bullpen stalwart, it was easy to overlook Sparkman in favour of more projectable arms (with far less control, however) that could be more reasonably expected to add velocity in a relief role. This is a guy who knows how to pitch - how to set up hitters, and how to command the strike zone.  With a catcher who can frame pitches effectively, and a sound defence behind him, Sparkman could one day become a mid to back of the rotation pitcher.
  Perhaps limited to his fastball and one of his offspeed pitches, Sparkman's fastball could return to its former velocity, and he could become 2017's Biagini.  He has experienced more success than Biagini as a minor league starter (and please, please don't throw Biagini's 2.42 ERA at AA in 2015 at me, or I will bury you with secondary stats and scouting reports), so he is an interesting choice, because he appears to profile better in that role in the long run.  Just the same, you can never have enough good arms in spring training, and even if Toronto feels Sparkman won't fit into their plans, he only will have cost $50 000 if the Royals take him back.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Who (if anyone) Will the Blue Jays Select in the Rule 5 Draft?


   Baseball's Rule 5 draft takes place at the Winter Meetings in Maryland tomorrow, and many teams will try to shore up a specific need like the Blue Jays did with Joe Biagini, and the Cardinals did with Matt Bowman last year.
   The new CBA has upped the price for selecting a player from $50 000 to $100 000.  A player has to be kept on the drafting team's 25-man roster, or has to be offered back to his original team for half the draft price.
   Of the 16 players selected in last year's Rule 5 draft, 10 saw at least some time with the team that drafted them, and 7 were not returned.  The Blue Jays, picking 24th, were able to nab Biagini, the 10th player selected, because 7 teams had full 40-man rosters and could not pick, while 9 others teams passed on the draft.  This year, the Jays again select 24th, and 6 teams picking ahead of them have full rosters.
   Trying to determine who Toronto might be considering, then, becomes a little easier.  If they are interested, they should once again pick anywhere from 10th to 15th in terms of players selected.  Given the success they had with Biagini last year, and the shoring up their bullpen still could use this year, they likely would take a chance on a long relief arm if the right one became available.
   Two pitchers who likely won't be around when it comes the Blue Jays turn to pick are RHP Yimmi Brasoban of the Padres, and RHP Yonny Chirinos of the Rays.  Tyler Webb of the Yankees, a potential lefty specialist, throws 90-92, with a decent slider and change, might be still available..  International League Left-handed hitters managed only a .559 OPS against him last year.
  Other names that Toronto may be considering include:

  -RHP Zack Weiss of the Reds did not pitch in 2016 due to elbow issues, and that's a huge red flag, despite his 11.9K/9 in High A in 2015.  Given the price, however, he might be worth kicking the tires on in spring training.
  -Arizona RHP Joey Krehbiel can hit 97 in a relief role, and even though control problems have plagued him throughout his minor league career (3.72 BB/9 this year), he pitched reasonably well in relief in AA this year, and had a good showing in the Arizona Fall League.  Another Diamondbacks' righty, Joel Payamps, has not pitched above A ball, but sat 92-94 mostly in a starting role this year, and like Biagini should experience a bump in velocity in a bullpen role.  Baseball America says that Payamps has big league stuff, but has hurt his chances by not pitching well in the Dominican winter league.

    Minnesota has the first pick in the draft.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

First Look at the Rule 5 Draft

Wil Browning
Clutchlings photo

   The Blue Jays have some roster decisions to make in advance of Major League Baseball's Rule 5 draft next month.
   The Rule 5 draft has been around for over half a century, and while it has undergone numerous revisions over the course of its history, its purpose has been to keep teams from stockpiling talent in the minor leagues. Roberto Clemente was one of the first Rule 5 draftees, and the Blue Jays have used it well to upgrade their roster over the years.  Willie Upshaw was the first player they took in the Rule 5 in 1977, and he helped bring the club into contention in the 1980s, along with George Bell, who they took from the Phillies in 1981 in a great tale of deep scouting work.  
      
   Players are eligible for the December 10th Rule 5 draft if by the deadline (Friday, November 20th):
-they are not on their team's 40-man roster prior to the draft;
-were 18 or younger on the June 5th preceding their signing, and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft since that signing;
-were 19 or older, and this is their fourth Rule 5 draft.
   Drafting teams must pay $50 000 to the team they select players from, and must keep them on their 25-man roster for the entire following season, or offer them back to their original team for half that price.

   Five players from last year's Rule 5 draft stuck with the teams that took them, down from a high of 11 in 2014.  Joe Biagini, of course, was a revelation in middle relief for the Blue Jays this year, and along with Matt Bowman, who the Cards selected, have created a new template for the draft - the mediocre minor league starter who experienced an uptick in velocity and/or improved command with a pared-down arsenal of pitches once moved into a relief role.
   I don't want to say that I have a crystal ball, and Biagini's success was one of this season's more pleasant surprises, but I did have some optimism, as I wrote last year:
 Clearly, Biagini pitches to contact, and I would hazard a guess that his fastball is of the two-seamer variety.  MLB.com suggests that he has a shot at a back-of-the-rotation spot, but with that part of the Blue Jays roster more than full at the moment, perhaps the club is thinking of auditioning him in the departed Liam Hendriks' role in long relief, especially with new GM Ross Atkins expressing a preference for durable bullpen arms who can get guys out.  The 6'4", groundball-inducing Biagini fills the first role, but not necessarily the second, with the traditional bullpen arm being of the flame-throwing variety.  Pitching in relief, Hendriks experienced a bump in his fastball velocity this season, and it's likely the same could be projected for Biagini. He already generates plenty of weak contact, so maybe this represents a bit of a paradigm shift for the Jays - K's from relievers are nice, but with the vastly improved Jays' defence, may not be a necessity.
  Rule 5 players are always a gamble, but position players are even more so in this era of 8-man bullpens. In 1984, they rolled the dice, hoping that the Indians wouldn't want Kelly Gruber back after drafting him, and that move paid off, as the Indians gave up on the former 1st rounder and declined to take him back, allowing Toronto to send him to the minors for further seasoning. The Blue Jays could afford to stash OF Lou Thornton on their bench in 1985, because Bell, Lloyd Moseby, and Jesse Barfield were just entering their primes, and all played over 150 games that year.
 
   The other side of the Rule 5 coin is which players an organization should protect.  And which players currently on the 40-man who no longer figure in the team's plans.  R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole would be the first two names to come to mind in the latter category.

   From the National Post, here is a good breakdown of the 40-man as it currently stands:

Under contract for 2017

3B Josh Donaldson
SS Troy Tulowitzki
C Russell Martin
OF Melvin Upton Jr.
1B Justin Smoak

SP Marco Estrada
SP J.A. Happ
SP Francisco Liriano

Team option for 2017

RP Jason Grilli ($3M)

Team control for 2017
Arbitration-eligible

OF Ezequiel Carrera
IF Darwin Barney
C Josh Thole
UT Chris Colabello
RP Aaron Loup

Pre-arbitration

2B Devon Travis
OF Kevin Pillar
IF Ryan Goins
OF Dalton Pompey
OF Darrell Ceciliani

SP Aaron Sanchez
SP Marcus Stroman
SP Mike Bolsinger
RP Roberto Osuna
RP Bo Schultz
RP Ryan Tepera

Free agents

OF Jose Bautista
1B Edwin Encarnacion
OF Michael Saunders
C Dioner Navarro

SP R.A. Dickey
RP Brett Cecil
RP Joaquin Benoit
RP Scott Feldman
RP Gavin Floyd

    Atkins has already indicated that Grilli will be brought back, and is hopeful of re-signing Benoit.
Floyd is still on the 60-day DL, and while he's making progress from his torn lat injury, there's no timetable for his return.  Under just about any scenario, it's hard to see Saunders or Navarro returning, and the futures of Bautista, Encarnacion, and Cecil are cloudy.

   So, barring any acquisitions, there should be several roster spots open in a few weeks.

   Here are the players who are Rule 5 eligible unless they are added to the 40-man by late November:

              Player         Acquired       2016 Level


Anthony Alford
2012 draft (3)
High A
Josh Almonte
2012 draft (22)
High A
Deiferson Barreto
2011 IFA
Short Season
Ryan Borucki
2012 draft (15)
Low A
L.B. Dantzler
2013 draft (14)
High A
DJ Davis
2012 draft (1)
High A
JD Davis
2013 draft (15)
High A
Shane Dawson
2012 (17)
AA
David Harris
2013 (36)
High A
Javier Hernandez
2012 IFA
Short Season
Juan Kelly
2012 IFA
Low A
Dan Lietz
2013 draft (5)
Low A
Tim Mayza
2013 draft (13)
High A
Mitch Nay
2012 draft (1 supp)
Injured
Rodrigo Orozco
2012 IFA
Short Season
Angel Perdomo
2011 IFA
Low A
Mike Reeves
2013 draft (21)
High A
Francisco Rios
2012 IFA
High A
Chris Rowley
2013 NDFA
High A
Matt Smoral
2012 draft (1 supp)
Short Season
Richard Urena
2012 IFA
AA





    There are several names that jump out from that list, including Alford, Perdomo, Rios, and Urena.
Of that group, it's hard to see any team gambling on any of them, however. Urena may be the closest to MLB-ready, and he should be added to the 40-man this year. Of the other three, none have played above A ball. Perdomo may profile as a back of the bullpen power arm one day, which is possibly one of the reasons why the organization opted to keep him in Lansing for the entire season - had he pitched and succeeded in High A, some team may have taken a gamble on him. Alford is currently tearing up the Arizona Fall League at the moment, but he is still likely too raw for a team to pick him. Just the same, the cost would be relatively low for a club to take him to spring training to see what they have.
And then there is a group of players who were previously eligible, but were not selected:



  Player Acquired              Year First Eligible          2016 Level


Jake Anderson
2011 draft (1 supp)
2015
Short Season
Johnny Anderson
2008 draft (28)
2013
AA
Jon Berti
2011 draft (18)
2014
AA
Will Browning
2012 NDFA
2015
AA
Adonys Cardona
2010 IFA
2014
High A
Taylor Cole
2011 draft (29)
2014
AA
Matt Dean
2011 draft (13)
2015
High A
Emilio Guerrero
2011 IFA
2015
AA
Jason Leblebijian
2012 draft (25)
2015
AA
Derrick Loveless
2011 draft (27)
2015
AA
Christian Lopes
2011 draft (7)
2015
AA
Tom Robson
2011 draft (4)
2015
Low A
Dwight Smith Jr
2011 draft (1 supp)
2015
AA
John Stilson
2011 draft (3)
2014
AA
Dickie Joe Thon
2010 draft (5)
2014
High A

  No one on this list leaps out, although had he been healthy this year, Cole might have become a conversion project like Biagini. Submariner Browning limited Eastern League hitters to a .215 average, but while his funky delivery creates some deception, his velocity is not overwhelming.  Cardona was healthy for the first time in several seasons, and used carefully in a bullpen role, established a career high in innings, but he would be too much of a risk at this point, having not made the leap from High to AA yet.  Stilson has been tabbed as a back end of the bullpen arm in waiting for several years, but his health too has been an issue.  He had a decent year at AA, but has been lit up in Arizona this fall.  Smith may have fallen off the prospect radar after repeating AA, but there still could be room for him on some MLB roster one day as a fourth outfielder.  He will likely go unclaimed if he's not put on the 40 man this year once again.

   Since the strength of the Blue Jays farm system at the moment is more at the lower levels, the team does not have many critical decisions to make from a roster standpoint.  There will likely be several openings, but there are few prospects who they will absolutely have to protect.  Atkins told the media this past week that the club will look to shore up the bullpen via a variety of means, including the Rule 5.  Given Biagini's success this year,  that may be a more difficult task, as other teams will likely be in the same marketplace.