The Dunedin Blue Jays are Toronto's longest-serving minor league affiliate. Toronto has fielded a team in their Florida State League home since 1987, when they revived a franchise that had been mothballed since 1978. Local ownership could not be found, so the team assumed control of the team when it returned to FSL play. The D-Jays are one of the lowest-drawing teams in the league, consistently ranking last or next-to-last in attendance for two decades. The FSL is not one of the minors' attendance leaders, but Toronto prospects usually play for crowds of about 750 in their home park. That's probably not a major concern for the organization, however. In addition to acting as another rung on the developmental ladder, Dunedin is a place where prospects with some medical issues can be housed in order to keep a closer eye on them.
Hopefully, with the stadium upgrades that the Blue Jays and the City of Dunedin agreed upon last fall, that might translate into more fans for the players when they are completed by the spring of 2019.
These roster projections are a matter of conjecture. I make them by considering the development of each player, and trying to match it with the goals the organization likely has for that player. With minor league spring training still just under two months away, many changes can take place. Injuries, stalled or accelerated development, and roster moves at other levels all could have an impact on prospect placement.
Catcher
Position
Age
2016 team
Ave/OBP/SLG
C
Max Pentecost
23
Lansing-Dun
.302/361/.486
C
Ryan Hissey
22
Lansing
.246/.310/.337
Pentecost DH'd exclusively since returning in early May last year, his first game action in almost two years while he recovered from shoulder surgeries. While his ultimate position may be somewhere else on the diamond, the plan for this year is to have him return behind the plate to get much needed reps. Hissey did the bulk of the Catching at Lansing last year, and even though his bat tailed off a bit from 2015, he improved his receiving skills by leaps and bounds. Michael De La Cruz and Justin Atkinson have served in back up roles (Atkinson in several positions), but the Blue Jays would likely prefer a more polished receiver like Hissey to give Pentecost regular breaks.
Infield
1B
Juan Kelly
22
Lansing
.274/.356/.448
2B
John LaPrise
23
Lansing-Dun
.261/.336/.318
SS
JC Cardenas
22
Lansing
.206/.279/.294
3B
Carl Wise
22
Lansing
..240/.291/.329
UT
Ryan Metzler
23
Lansing
.164/.260/.246
1B/OF
Connor Panas
23
Lansing
.231/.343/.430
Not the strongest assemblage of talent in the organization, Kelly made the most progress of the group, and Panas tied for 3rd in the Midwest League in Home Runs.
Outfield
Position
Player
Age
2016 team
Ave/OBP/SLG
OF
Josh Almonte
22
Lansing-Dun
.199/.245/.275
OF
DJ Davis
22
Dunedin
.197/.295/.263
OF
Andrew Guillotte
23
Lansing-Dun
.244/.315/.337
OF
Lane Thomas
21
Lansing
.216/.330/.348
Again, not a stronghold of prospects. Davis will likely repeat High A, and Thomas has had trouble staying healthy the last two seasons, although moving him back to CF seemed to help his game last year.
Starting Pitching
Position
Player
Age
2016 team
WHIP/K/9/BB/9
SP
Jon Harris
23
Lansing-Dun
1.15/6.9/2.6
SP
Franciso Rios
21
Lansing-Dun
1.14/8.1/2.2
SP
Angel Perdomo
22
Lansing
1.18/8.7/3.9
SP
Ryan Borucki
22
Dunedin-Lan
1.35/7.8/2.5
SP
Jordan Romano
23
Lansing
1.05/8.9/3.3
SP
Clinton Hollon
22
DNP
This is one of the strongest rotations in the system. Depending on what kind of roster additions are made at New Hampshire and Buffalo, Harris may begin the year at AA, despite the organization preferring to keep prospects at one level for at least the equivalent of one full season.
Rios was dominant at Lansing before his May promotion to Dunedin, and despite his numbers taking a bit of a step back at the higher level, he missed more bats in the FSL. Perdomo and Rios both were left unprotected at Rule 5 draft time, but both went unclaimed. Borucki, making a comeback after missing most of 2015, started in Dunedin last year, but struggled, and went to Lansing when the Michigan weather warmed up. He finished 2nd in the MWL in ERA, and was added to the 40-man roster in November. Romano came back from injury as well, and quietly had one of the best seasons of any Blue Jays pitching prospects, striking out a batter an inning - his 2.11 ERA would have led the MWL if he had enough innings to qualify. Hollon is the forgotten man, his career interrupted by Tommy John, and a pair of drug suspensions. Hollon was invited to Instructs last fall, and is looking to get his career back on track.
Relief Pitching
Position
Player
Age
2016 team
WHIP/K/9/BB/9
RP
Andrew Case
24
Lansing
1.10/7.2/2.3
RP
Dusty Isaacs
25
Lansing-Dun
1.11/10.6/2.3
RP
Dan Lietz
22
Lansing
1.35/7.1/3.9
RP
Danny Young
22
Lansing
1.50/6.9/3.9
RP
Kirby Snead
22
Lansing
1.34/6.0/1.1
RP
Tom Robson
23
Dunedin-Lan
2.07/6.6/6.5
RP
Josh DeGraaf
23
Lansing
1.23/7.4/2.5
Again, another strength of this potential roster. Case missed part of 2016 after failing to take a drug test, but was solid along with Isaacs, Lietz, Snead, and Young in Lansing's bullpen last year. In his return from Tommy John, Robson seemed poised for great things last spring, but struggled with his command all year, and was eventually moved into relief. DeGraaf's starting and relieving versatility will be a help when double headers start to pile up.
If you've been keeping track, this list actually has 26 names on it, instead of the maximum of 25, because I had trouble finding places for some of these players. Pentecost and maybe Panas are the only impact bats in this lineup, but the pitching staff will likely keep the D-Jays in the majority of their games. Still, while the post-season is not a priority, it's hard to see this team earning a playoff berth.
If you want to follow the D-Jays progress this year, your options are limited. Games are not streamed through MiLB.com's website, so listening online is about the only way to follow.
Last month, the Blue Jays had some 40-man roster decisions to make in advance of this month's Rule 5 draft.
Specifically, they had to decide which of three pitchers who have not competed above A ball, but might make attractive bullpen options at the MLB level, to protect.
This could not have been an easy decision. The trio included:
-Francisco Rios, a 2012 free agent signing from Mexico, began 2016 with Lansing, but after a month of dominating Midwest League hitters, was promoted to Dunedin;
-LHP Angel Perdomo, a 6"6" 2011 late IFA signing from the Dominican, who led the MWL in strikeouts this year, averaging just over 11K/9;
-Southpaw Ryan Borucki, a 2012 15th round pick who has had trouble staying healthy, and just finished his first full season with the organization.
This could not have been an easy decision. Rios and Borucki rely on command and secondary pitches, while Perdomo's main weapon is his 95 mph fastball - Fangraphs' Chris Mitchell suggests that some MLB team may try to stash him in their bullpen as a 3rd lefty/longman. Ultimately, they chose Borucki, whose grit, advanced feel for pitching, and command of his whole repertoire of pitches led the Blue Jays to believe both that he was a better long-term prospect, and that he might be too tempting an arm to pass through the draft.
Borucki was considered one of the top prep lefties in Illinois in his draft year, until a torn UCL caused his stock to fall. The Blue Jays were not put off by his medicals, and took him in the 15th round, signing him for 3rd round money (Borucki had committed to Iowa). Borucki tried to continue to rehabilitate his elbow, but was shut down that year after only four outings with Rookie-Level Bluefield. He ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery the following spring, wiping out his 2013 season.
Borucki came back with a vengeance in 2014, pitching at both Bluefield (where he was named the Appalachian League's 12th best prospect, despite only pitching a month there) and Vancouver. Baseball America was high on him:
He projects for at least average control with a chance to be plus. His delivery has improved significantly, and he throws with significantly less effort from his loose, quick arm, while working over the ball more and not leaking with his hips. Borucki's fastball was 90-94 early in the season and sat 88-92, touching 94 later in the season. He relies on his two-seamer that has at least average sink and arm-side run. Borucki demonstrates advanced feel for a changeup with plus potential. His curveball is a below-average to fringe-average offering, and Borucki could begin throwing a slider this offseason. He has a starter's build at a lanky 6-foot-4 with a high waist and significant projection remaining.
The brakes were applied to his development again in 2015, however, when shoulder, elbow, and back issues limited his season to 6 innings. Borucki was ticketed for Lansing this season, but was held back in Dunedin for April while the weather in the Midwest warmed up, and to be close to the Blue Jays medical facilities. Pitching against the more advanced FSL hitters, Borucki was still shaking off the rust from a year's inactivity off, giving up 40 hits in 20 innings. His career seemed to be in jeopardy when he finally reached Lansing in mid-May.
His turnaround could not have been more sudden or dramatic.
In his MWL debut, Borucki gave up only one earned run in 5 innings. Two starts later, he threw 6 scoreless frames, and in June, threw a pair of back-to-back games that were easily the best of his career: an 8 inning, 5-hit/1ER, 0BB, 8K effort, followed by 7 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball, with 6 strikeouts and (again) no walks. Here's his 6th K from that 2nd start:
Borucki finished 2nd in the league in ERA, 4th in WHIP, and fanned almost a batter an inning while tossing a career-high 115 frames. His August 8th start gave some insight into why the Blue Jays ultimately decided to protect him on the 40-man.
Borucki struggled slightly with his fastball command in the 1st inning of this start against West Michigan, but received a nice 5-4-3 double play after issuing a one out walk to finish his 11-pitch inning. In the 2nd, he began to use his change up, which has excellent depth to it. That pitch may prove one day to be the most effective in his arsenal, and may already be the best in the organization outside of Marco Estrada. After falling behind 2-0 to the leadoff hitter, he fanned that man on a full-count change, then got ahead of the next two hitters, allowing him to use his secondaries to get a 6-3 groundout and a called 3rd strike to end an inning in which he threw 15 pitches.
Borucki gave up his only solid contact on the day, a 1-out single, in the 3rd, and began to spot his fastball and slider more effectively after giving up a walk following that base hit. His concentration wavered a bit with runners on 1st and 2nd, giving up a double steal after failing to look back at the runner on 2nd who had taken a big walking lead the previous pitch. He needed 18 pitches to retire the side in the 3rd. He did not show a great move to first in this outing, and may have to work more at holding runners closer.
The 4th inning saw Borcuki really settle into a groove, retiring the side in order on 9 pitches with a pair of Ks, and 4 whiffs. His fastball sat at 92, and he had improved command of his slider to LHH, and his change to RHH. He was able to locate the ball seemingly at will, setting up hitters by locating to either side of the plate.
The only blemish on Borcuki's 5th inning of work was a two-out, four-pitch walk, with CF Lane Thomas making a sliding catch on a sinking liner to finish the inning. At 67 pitches, Borucki, whose pitch count had been reduced as he blew by his previous career innings high, was finished for the night. He threw 44 strikes, gave up only one hit, while walking three and fanning five. He recorded five outs via groundballs, and two by flyouts. He threw 12 first-pitch strikes to 18 of the hitters he faced, and recorded 9 swings-and-misses on the night. Working from the first base side of the rubber, Borucki's arm angle makes him extremely tough on left-handed hitters, while his change keeps the righties off balance.
Borucki is a student of the game, and watches his teammates' bullpen sessions between starts. His delivery has undergone considerable change over the past year. When he arrived at Lansing, he worked with Lugnuts' pitching coach Jeff Ware and minor league instructor Sal Fasano at adding more deception to his delivery - the thinking was that hitters in the Florida State League were getting too good a look at his pitches. Borucki learned his change from his father, who pitched in the Phillies organization. Dad wouldn't allow him to throw a curve until his senior year of high school, so Borucki learned to change speeds and master one of the more difficult pitches to throw. When his fastball or slider location is off, he always seems to have command of that change.
At 22, there is little projection remaining for Borucki, but we've seen so little of him that it's hard to get a true handle on his ceiling just yet. Of the trio, he probably projects the highest in terms on long-term potential as a starter. He has a solid pitcher's frame, is athletic, and gets a good downward plane on his pitches. He has a four-pitch mix that can turn a lineup over. If he can stay healthy, he can begin to move quickly through the system, now that his option clock will start ticking next year.
OF Anthony Alford and SS Richard Urena were added to the Blue Jays 40-man roster yesterday, along with LHP Ryan Borucki. Teams had until Friday's deadline to add players who met the qualifying minor league service time, or risk losing them in next month's Rule 5 draft.
Alford and Urena were no surprise. Urena finished the season at AA New Hampshire after an August promotion, and will likely begin the 2017 season there, before finishing up with AAA Buffalo. Alford struggled through an injury-plagued 2016 with High A Dunedin, but turned heads in the Arizona Fall League. He will start next season with New Hampshire. While both are not MLB-ready (Urena would be the closest of the pair; Alford has the higher ceiling), the Blue Jays could not risk losing them, even though the team selecting them would have to keep them on their 25-man roster for the season, or offer them back to the Blue Jays for half the $50 000 draft fee. Both are premium athletes, and should be a major part of the Blue Jays roster by 2018, 2019 at the latest.
Borucki was the biggest surprise. With limited room available, the club had to decide between him, fellow southpaw Angel Perdomo, and RHP Francisco Rios. Borucki's road to the 40-man was easily the longest. Considered one of the top prospects in Illinois in 2012, a torn UCL prior to the draft caused his stock to tumble. The Blue Jays, always ones to roll the dice under Amateur Scouting Director Blake Parker during the Alex Anthopoulos era, were not convinced that Borucki's medical reports would necessitate Tommy John, and took him in the 15th round, signing him for 3rd round money. After four outings with Bluefield after turning pro, his elbow had not fully responded, and further rehab was unsuccessful. Borucki went under the knife at the end of spring training the following year, and missed all of 2013. He came back with a vengeance in 2014, pitching at two levels, while being named the Appy League's 12th-best prospect. Baseball America was high on Borucki after that season:
Borucki showed polish and strike-throwing ability, producing the lowest walk rate (1.6 per nine) and highest strikeout-walk rate (5.0) of any lefthander in the league, starter or reliever. He projects for at least average control with a chance to be plus. His delivery has improved significantly, and he throws with significantly less effort from his loose, quick arm, while working over the ball more and not leaking with his hips. Borucki's fastball was 90-94 early in the season and sat 88-92, touching 94 later in the season. He relies on his two-seamer that has at least average sink and arm-side run. Borucki demonstrates advanced feel for a changeup with plus potential. His curveball is a below-average to fringe-average offering, and Borucki could begin throwing a slider this offseason. He has a starter's build at a lanky 6-foot-4 with a high waist and significant projection remaining.
2015 promised to be a breakout season for Borucki. After finishing 2014 with Vancouver, he seemed destined to return to the midwest to start the season with Low A Lansing. Elbow soreness kept him in Florida after spring training camp broke, however, and then shoulder soreness limited him to all of 6 innings before he was shut down in July. Borucki broke camp with Dunedin this year, likely to be close to the team medical facilities and the warm Florida weather, but he struggled with his command, and was hit hard by Florida State League hitters. Finally reaching Lansing in mid-May, he became a mainstay in the Lugnuts' rotation, finishing 2nd in the Midwest League in ERA, 4th in WHIP, fanning just under a batter per inning while tossing a career-high 115 innings.
Despite his success in Low A, Borucki's inclusion on the 40-man came as a surprise to many Blue Jays fans, most of whom had never heard of him before. But this is a guy with great competitiveness, an advanced feel for pitching, pinpoint control, and perhaps the best change up in the organization this side of Marco Estrada. Perdomo the MLW strikeout leader, is a 6'7" fireballer who has battled control problems as a starter, and even though he's a potential power arm out of the bullpen (his fastball can touch 96, and can be very difficult on left-handed hitters), a team who takes him may have to live with that. As Miguel Castro demonstrated in his brief time with the Blue Jays, a four seam fastball is not enough to get MLB hitters out. Rios is intriguing as well, but did not miss as many bats in the FSL after a dominating first month of the season with Lansing. Still, with a fastball sitting 92-94, an above average curve and a slider that made huge strides this year, some team may want to take a chance on the Mexican. If there was one player the Blue Jays left unprotected who may be scooped up in the Rule 5 next month, it may be Rios. If he's moved to the pen, his curve would pair nicely with his fastball, which will likely experience an uptick in velocity. Just the same, having not pitched above High A, Rios would be a huge risk. All 3 pitchers have upside and a possible MLB future. The club obviously felt that Borucki's command would make him a likely target for a team looking for bullpen help.
It's always good to throw in some video. Here's a look at Borucki:
A year ago, it was difficult to come up with this past of the Blue Jays Top Prospects list.
Alex Anthopoulos' prospect wheeling and dealing had emptied the system of much of its depth.
This year, it's a different story.
Aided by the rapid ascendancy of prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and the addition of draft picks like T.J. Zeuch, the system now boasts a wider base of talent than it did a year ago. A stellar 2016 draft also helped to re-stock the system quickly. Players who may have cracked the top 10 list of other organizations found themselves on the outside of the Toronto list.
If the front office decides to re-tool the major league roster next season, they have far greater prospect currency to deal with than they did a year ago.
11. Justin Maese, RHP ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: Mid to back of the rotation Calling Card: bat-breaking, ground ball contact Maese definitely merited consideration for the Top 10. In only his second year of pro ball, he advanced as far as Lansing, progressing from the GCL to Low A in about one season's worth of starts.
The 2015 3rd rounder had an impressive debut with the GCL Jays, and quickly picked up and perfected a slider at Instructs that fall with former Blue Jays minor league pitching co-ordinator Sal Fasano. Held back in extended to build his innings and arm strength up this year, he skipped Bluefield, and began the season as Vancouver's Opening Day starter. Maese made only 5 starts for the C's, but the front office had seen enough (as had Baseball America, which named him the league's 8th best prospect on that small sample size), and promoted him to Lansing in July. Despite being one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, Maese fared well in full-season ball.
Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, Maese's fastball has a ton of natural sink to it, and when he's pounding the bottom of the strike zone with it, he's extremely tough to barrel up. Add to that his 89 mph slider, and Maese keeps hitters off balance. He does tend to give up ground ball contact, but he's the type of pitcher who can only be a pitch away from getting out of trouble with a double play ball. You really get a sense of his ground ball-inducing abilities with this chart:
Maese is the latest in a long line of lean, tall and downward-plane pitching, athletic pitchers. The former HS QB fields his position well, and credit goes to Blue Jays Texas scout Gerald Murray for going off the beaten baseball path to find this gem. He should begin the season with Lansing next year, but will likely finish in Dunedin.
12. Angel Perdomo LHP ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: Back of the rotation, or back of the bullpen power arm Calling Card: Premium velocity Perdomo was in the back end of my Top 10 last year, and even though he slipped a bit due to the new depth of prospects in the organization, I have always been a huge fan of the 6'7" southpaw.
Brought along slowly, Perdomo remained at Lansing for the full season, even though rotation mates like Sean Reid-Foley, Jon Harris, and Francisco Rios were promoted to Dunedin with numbers that were not that much better than his.
Fastball command has long been an issue for the lefty, and that's what kept him in Lansing for the year. But few pitchers in minor league baseball missed as many bats as Perdomo did in 2016 - his 156 Ks lead the organization and the Midwest League, and was the second highest total in all of minor league ball. When you faced Perdomo this year, chances were good that you would go down swinging:
s
Perdomo's numbers in the second half were not as sizzling as they were in the first. That may because he was tiring in his first year of full season ball, or it may owe to the fact that he was working more on his secondaries.
When he is on his game, Perdomo sits 93-94 with his fastball from a delivery that can be very tough on left-handed hitters, and uses a slider that flashes plus, and a change up that grades at least as average to complement his fastball. The thinking is that as he moves up the ladder, more advanced hitters may lay off his four seamer up in the zone, and that he may profile as a bullpen arm one day. Repeating his delivery consistently to improve that fastball command has been Perdomo's biggest challenge. He sometimes falls off to the 3rd base side, or rushes his arm. Tall southpaws tend to take longer to develop, and even though Perdomo will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft next month if he's not put on the 40-man roster, the organization will likely keep him in a starter's role in Dunedin next year.
13. Reese McGuire, C ETA: 2017 Future Outlook: defence-first, steady MLB back up Calling Card: superior receiving skills Catching depth has been something of a weakness in the organization. With the acquisition of McGuire at the trade deadline, the return to health of Max Pentecost, and the development of several lower level Catching prospects, it has now become a strength.
In McGuire's draft year (2013), I followed scouting reports on him closely, because several had suggested he might land where the Blue Jays were drafting at the 10 spot (the Jays chose fellow California high schooler Phil Bickford, who chose not to sign, and re-entered the draft a year later). BA's draft report on McGuire looks much the same as a scouting report about him might look now:
He is a natural behind the plate. He remains loose, even after adding strength to his 6-foot-1, 190-pound build. His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power. The San Diego recruit runs better than most catchers. Even if he doesn't reach his offensive ceiling, McGuire's defense will allow him to be a big league backup, but if he hits he has all-star potential.
McGuire has risen as far as AA in four pro seasons, so there's always hope that his bat will come around, but a career line of .267/.324/.329 suggests it may not. He was once a BA Top 100 prospect, but has fallen out of their rankings. McGuire had a decent showing the Arizona Fall League last year, has decent bat speed, and he tends to make contact and put balls in play, so there's always a possibility that his swing plane can be altered to hit more line drives than his customary ground ball contact.
With the future of R.A. Dickey and his personal catcher Josh Thole uncertain, there could be a battle for Russell Martin's back up job next spring, depending on what the club does with Dioner Navarro. Unless a Catcher from outside the organization is brought in, McGuire could be battling A.J. Jimenez for that spot.
14. Francisco Rios, RHP ETA: 2018 Future Outlook: Bullpen Power Arm Calling Card: Barrel-dodging slider Rios is perhaps the most under-the-radar prospect on this list, and no one broke out more than this 2012 late IFA signing from Mexico.
Rios posted reasonably good numbers with Vancouver last year, but there was little to prophesize the start he had with Lansing, posting a 1.20 ERA over his first 6 starts, fanning 43 in 30 innings. That performance landed him a promotion to Dunedin (and a spot on the World roster at the Futures Game), where he gave up more contact, but still gave an indication that he's headed higher in the organization.
Rios has added some jump to his fastball, hitting 95 early in the season, and sitting 91-93. His delivery does present with some deception on his fastball, and even more on his slider, which flashes plus potential. He commands both sides of the plate, and is not afraid to bury that slider when he's ahead in the count. He also tries to elevate that fastball to generate swings and misses, but he was not successful with it in the FSL as he was the MWL.
What may limit Rios' ascension up the ladder is his other secondary pitches - his change is inconsistent, his curve would need to improve greatly to even reach that level. While he should return for at least a half season at Dunedin next year, he may eventually move to his pen, where his fastball may tick up, and be complemented even more by his slider.
15. Harold Ramirez, OF ETA: late 2017 Future Outlook: Corner MLB OF Calling Card: Above-Average Hit Tool One may think that since McGuire and Ramirez ranked higher on most Pirates' prospects lists than I have, that I'm not that high on either. To be truthful, I'm not sure there are two prospects in the Blue Jays top 20 that are closer to MLB-ready than this pair.
Ramirez has something of an unorthodox approach at the plate, but all he's done as a prospect is hit. A knee injury after joining the organization limited him to one Eastern League game, but this is a player who has posted a .306/.364/.407 line since turning pro.
Reports suggest that Ramirez profiles as a corner OF because of his arm, but the Jays thought enough of him to push incumbent Roemon Fields to LF in New Hampshire when Ramirez arrived at the trade deadline.
MLB Pipeline's evaluation of RHH Ramirez:
He hits the ball hard to all fields and while he has a line-drive, crush-the-ball-to-right-center approach, he certainly has the strength and bat speed to grow into more power. He has a solid approach and will take a walk.
Ramirez has had a history of injuries, but if he's healthy, he should start the 2017 season in Buffalo, where he should also continue to hit. The outfield was a bit crowded in the Pirates' system, hence their willingness to part with him, and with only perhaps Dalton Pompey realistically ahead of him, if change comes to the Blue Jays outfield this off season, Ramirez could find himself in the big leagues at some point next year.
16. J.B Woodman, OF ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: MLB right fielder Calling Card: Five Tools The first of the two 2nd round picks the Blue Jays had this past June, Woodman tied for the Southeastern Conference lead in Home Runs this past season. In naming him the Northwest League's 6th prospect, BA observed:
Evaluators around the league noted that Woodman made a lot of hard contact and showed the ability to hit both fastballs and offspeed pitches equally well. He showed contact problems by ranking fifth in the league with 72 strikeouts. He’s a steady defender who gets good jumps and reads on balls and has speed enough to steal double-digit bases.
A centre fielder in college and with Vancouver for this past season, scouts think his arm and bat play better in right field. It is true that he swings and misses a lot, but he also works the count and draws walks. He finished the last week of the season in Lansing, and will return there next spring. Several reports I have received about Woodman comment on his bat speed and pitch recognition skills, which will help him make a successful jump to full season ball. While Woodman hit the ball to all fields, the LHH hit his three Homers to the opposite field:
With the emphasis the organization has placed on HS pitchers over the last several drafts, a toolsy, athletic player like Woodman is something of a novelty. Of all the players on this list, he's the one that I'm most interested to follow next year.
17. Ryan Borucki, LHP ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: back of the rotation starter Calling Card: MLB-ready change-up If there was an award for Grit and Resilience in the organization, the next two pitchers on this list would have shared it for 2016.
A 15th round pick in 2012 whose stock had fallen due to a torn UCL, Borucki has missed two full seasons since joining the organization (Tommy John in 2013; elbow and shoulder issues last year).
The Appy League's 12th-ranked prospect in 2014 despite only spending a month there, Borucki seemed ready to head to full season play in 2015, but was limited to only 5 innings.
Finally healthy this year, the club opted to keep him in Florida when spring training camp broke, assigning him to Dunedin. Whether this was designed to challenge him, keep him in a warm climate until the weather further north warmed up, or have him close to the team's medical facilities in the case of a breakdown is unknown, but he was overmatched, as Florida State League hitters pounded him at a .421 clip over his first 6 starts.
Sent down a level to Lansing, Borucki turned his season (and possibly his career) around with a Midwest League 2nd-best 2.41 ERA, and a 10-4 record. Borucki fanned 107 in 115 innings, walking only 26. Working with Lugnuts pitching coach Jeff Ware and then-Blue Jays minor league pitching instructor Sal Fasano, he added some deception to his delivery, and began missing barrels with greater regularity.
The tall, athletic lefthander can dial it up to 95 with has fastball, but sits in the 90-92 range. He complements it with what might be the best change up in the organization, a pitch with great deception and depth that MWL hitters had little or no chance against. Perhaps the most encouraging sign this season was the career-high 135 innings he threw this year.
Borucki has lost some development time, but showed the determination and pitchability that led the organization to roll the dice on him 4 years ago. He should return to Dunedin and pitch with greater success next year, and might move quickly now that he has a healthy full season under his belt.
18. Patrick Murphy, RHP ETA: 2020 Future Outlook: Back of the rotation Calling Card: If Borucki is medium-grade sandpaper, Murphy is the coarse-grade variety. His has been the longest road among the prospects on this list.
He missed his senior year of high school due to a torn UCL, but the Blue Jays still took him in the 3rd round that year (2013). His pro debut, delayed to 2014, lasted all of 4 innings.
Shut down early in 2015 due to lingering arm numbness and pain, Murphy missed the entire 2015 season after surgery to remove a rib to help lessen pain in the arm. Held back in extended this year, he pitched in 8 games for Lansing before heading to Vancouver when the Northwest League season opened.
Murphy found himself with the C's, anchoring their rotation, pitching in the league's All Star game, and being named the loop's 12-best prospect. His work drew notice from the opposition, according to BA:
Managers praised Murphy for the angle on his 92-96 mph fastball and ability to pound the bottom part of the zone with his entire arsenal. He couples his fastball with a 12-to-6 curveball that rates as an above-average pitch and a changeup he spent time developing at Vancouver
Having not pitched in almost two calendar years, Murphy showed some rust with Lansing, walking 14 in only 21 innings. His command improved with Vancouver. His development will likely be slow and steady, with a return to Lansing next season
19. Jordan Romano, RHP ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: Back of the rotation innings-eater Calling Card: Pounder of the lower part of the strike zone If you can remember only one thing about the Markham, ON, native it should be this: toward the end of spring training in 2015, Romano threw a pitch in a game that made the count full - and also made his UCL give way. He felt it, but stayed in the game for one more pitch, uncorking a hellacious slider to strike the hitter out. A few weeks later, he underwent Tommy John surgery, wiping out his season.
I have followed Romano's career closely since the Blue Jays made him their 10th pick in 2014 out of Oral Roberts, where he was 3rd on their all-time Saves list -despite only playing one season there.
As someone who grew up playing on some of the fields Romano played on in Southern Ontario (albeit a couple of decades earlier), it's easy for me to feel an affinity for someone who defied long odds to get drafted, and may beat even longer ones to pitch in the majors one day. He kept me up-to-date with his progress throughout his rehab, and impressed me with his positive attitude.
Romano spent part of the off season working out with Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, and it showed. He faced live hitters for the first time in April in Extended, and, converted to starting, made his first appearance in 22 months for Lansing, throwing a complete game, 7-inning 2-hit/1-run gem in early June, walking none and striking out 7.
Romano was consistent for the Lugs all summer, failing to go at least 3 innings in only 1 of his 14 starts. His 2.11 ERA would have led the Midwest League if he had enough innings to qualify. He walked 27 and fanned 72 in as many innings. I watched Romano's final start of the season, a 10-strikeout command performance over 6.
Romano sits 92-93 with his fastball, and is adept at getting ahead of hitters, commanding both sides of the plate. He can elevate his fastball when he has two strikes on a hitter, but it will be interesting to see how hitters at the next level handle it. At 6'4", he gets good extension and downward plane on his pitches. He complements that fastball with a slider that has good bite, and a change up that improved with each start. Staying ahead of hitters makes his subsequent pitches that much better, and is a key for Romano as he moves up to Dunedin next year.
Harris, Perdomo, and Rios may have been a new version of the Lansing Three earlier in the season, but Borucki, Romano, and Maese formed their own version in the second half.
20. Josh Palacios, OF ETA: 2019 Future Outlook: 4th outfielder Calling Card: outstanding athleticsim
He may not have made the NWL top prospects list, but Palacios may already be one of the best athletes in the organization. The 4th rounder from last June's draft hit .355/.437/.473 for Vancouver, and while scouts forecast a fourth outfielder-type projection for him, it will be interesting to see what a year of full season ball in 2017 will do in terms of developing his bat speed and base running abilities. Palacios has quick hands, looks like a hurdler, and gets around the bases in a hurry.
A sage baseball man once told me when in doubt, go with projection. Palacios may not have drawn rave reviews, but the organization still thought enough of him to take him in the 4th round. There may not be much room for projection left for him in terms of tools, but the athleticism is there - enough to make him worth following when he begins full season play with Lansing next year.
As summer approaches, times become truly busy for a minor league baseball blogger, and this humble scribe is no exception.
Bluefield Play began in the rookie level Appalachian League this past week. With all the buzz surrounding the pro debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr, here's a look at one of the behind-the-scenes people who help bring the far flung Appy League action to us.
Bailey Angle is the Bluefield Jays broadaster this year. The team usually brings in a local broadcast journalism student to run the media side of things, and Angle is the latest in a long line of (somewhat) local j-schoolers to fill the roll.
Angle is heading into his senior year at Virginia Tech in their multimedia journalism program, and has interned with IMG College, one of America's leading collegiate sports marketing companies. Angle is the voice of VT softball. He has also called college basketball, soccer, and baseball.
Growing up in New Kent, VA, not far from Richmond, Angle grew up a huge Pittsburgh Steelers fan. When he was 8 or 9, Bailey's father took him to a Steelers game. On the drive home, he heard the voice of legendary broadcaster Myron Cope, and was hooked. "He had such a grip on the people of the city and was incredibly passionate about the Steelers and sports in general despite not playing them himself," says Angle. "I just thought that was really cool how he could be a part of these huge moments in sports even when he wasn't on the field, but in the booth."
He became aware of the opening in Bluefield when fellow IMG intern and VT student Danny Nokes, who called the Jays games last year, accepted a similar position with the Yankees Pulaski affiliate. Angle sent an email to Bluefield Jays GM Jeff Gray, was granted an interview, and received a job offer a few weeks later.
Calling the Jays game is only a small part of Angle's duties. His official title is head of media relations, with responsibilities that include broadcasting, writing game re-caps, and setting up interviews with local media outlets. In minor league baseball, however, staff are jacks-of-all-trades, pitching in with whatever tasks need to be done. This week, in advance of the club's annual "Meet the Jays" picnic, Angle was driving around Bluefield, scouring grocery stores for gallon cans of vanilla pudding. He's learned a lot already in his short time on the job.
Angle lists his one of his biggest career highlights so far is being ranked the 13th best collegiate sportscaster by the Sportscasters Talent Agency of America: " It was a tremendous honour and just an awesome experience to see my name on a list of so many talented broadcasters." As far as broadcasting highlights are concerned, travelling with the Virginia Tech softball team, and calling the 2015 NCAA and 2016 ACC tournaments lead the way for Angle.
Able says his ultimate goal is to land a job as the lead voice of a college or pro sports franchise, or work for a network one day as a play-by-play broadcaster. For now, he's focused on the short term: "'I'm hoping that I improve a ton during my time in Bluefield and can take what I gain from here wherever I go in the future."
Vladdy Jr Family commitments and some audio difficulties with Bluefield's opening night audio feed meant that I was only able to get some snippets of how the star attraction fared over his first pro weekend, but I get the sense he displayed two things that will dominate the discussion over his future in the coming years: his prodigious power, and where will he play? With his famous dad in attendance, Vlad Jr belted a pair of homers over the weekend, and committed a pair of fielding and a deuce of throwing errors.
It's way too early to end the Vladdy at 3rd experiment, but he did show that he has miles to go before he can be considered even an adequate hot corner glove. Of greater concern has to be his weight - he has a great distance to go in transforming his body, too, and hopefully the new sport science department in he Blue Jays administration has already started this process. Pictures of Jr with dad posted over the weekend show that he's always been on the portly side. Ultimately, that doesn't matter, nor does his ultimate position matter, because his bat will play, but one hopes that Vladdy will take his condition and agility seriously.
The hype machine in on full throttle with this young prospect, but he has a learning curve ahead of him, and while it won't be a surprise to see him in Vancouver by summer's end, let's temper expectations a bit. Very few MLBers don't have to deal with some adversity in their minor league careers, and he should be no exception. Let's follow his progress with interest, but let's also give him some time.
ICYMI, here's his first pro homer:
The C's coming soon to a streaming site near you? The Vancouver Canadians are truly one of minor league baseball's biggest success stories.
Thanks to new left field bleacher seating, they led the Northwest League in attendance last year, averaging just under 6 000 fans per game. Lower mainlanders may be saddled with some of the highest housing prices in the country, but there's a lot to be said about a summer lifestyle that includes coming home from work to catch the last half of the Jays game on tv, then heading to the Nat to watch a C's game, while sipping on a Granville Island craft beer.
The C's have a partnership with Shaw TV, a western Canada cable giant, to broadcast 6 Saturday night home games across the cable network. Viewers from Victoria to Sault Ste Marie can tune in to watch the games. The rest of us, whether we are milb.com subscribers and/or Eastern Canadians, are out of luck for the time being.
Few short season teams have their games televised and streamed; the demand often just isn't there. Hillsboro, the Angels NWL affiliate, does stream their games on milb.com, and produce a fairly good quality broadcast.
Rob Fai, the C's media head, says that things were lined up a few years ago to stream C's home games on the minor league website service, but border issues apparently proved to be an issue. He wasn't able to give an indication if that will change anytime soon.
So, some of us will have to wait until Vancouver visits Hillsboro, or hope that suburban Vancouver relatives might let us see if their password/login would work on Shaw's mobile app. Not that I would personally advocate such a thing, of course.
Blue Jays dip into the services again By and large, players at America's service academies are usually not considered top prospects.
Baseball is not necessarily the reason they're attending their respective schools, and then there's the spectre of a looming commitment. Still, always ones to roll the dice during the Anthopoulos team, the Blue Jays have selected players from the Air Force (C Garrett Custons, 10th round, 2013), the U.S. Military Academy (P Chris Rowley, undrafted 2013), and the U.S. Naval Academy (OF Alex Azor, 10th, 2012) in an attempt to find a nugget while filling out minor league rosters.
Athletes who wish to forego their service commitment in order to advance their pro careers can apply for an exemption, the most famous of which was basketball star David Robinson. Rowley applied for and received his exemption last fall, and has resumed his career with Dunedin, while Custons and Azor have not. Toronto dipped into the Naval Academy again earlier this month when they chose LHP Luke Gillingham. The 37th rounder is not considered a top prospect both because of his upcoming commitment and a fastball that doesn't top 90, but the club feels there is room for projection, and he has had positive reviews for his pitchability, his command, and an apparent uptick in velocity.
Gillingham will start the year in Bluefield, and while he may be gone before the season ends (academy grads have 60 days to report for duty after graduation), it's always interesting to see how these stories unfold.
GCL Jays Open Season The lowest rung on the stateside ladder, the Gulf Coast League does not get much attention, except from scouts and a few hardy prospectors.
If baseball's system of development resembles a pyramid, the GCL is firmly on the bottom row.
Last year's GCL Jays squad was the most successful edition in club history (they were a little heavier with college players than usual), and will be a tough act to follow this year.
A few names on the roster were surprising, because they had played in the GCL last year.
Among the names are LHP Travis Bergen, who struck out 11 in only 5 innings for Vancouver last year before being shut down. His presence in Florida to start his second pro season may be an indication that he's working through an injury, and he's likely being kept there as a precaution.
RHPs Lupe Chavez and Juan Meza were prized IFA signings out of Mexico and Venezueal, respectively, in 2014, and both spent time stateside at the end of their rookie seasons last year. Neither may be there for long, although this seems to fit the pattern of pumping the developmental brakes on top pitching prospects that the club showed with some of their full-season assignments. LHP Miguel Burgos spent all of last season with Bluefield, so starting him back in the GCL may indicate some injury issues, too.
C Owen Spiwak would have merited a promotion to Bluefield too, one would have thought. The Mississauga native hit .293/.337/.329 for the GCL Jays after being selected in the 10th round last year. He split time with 2014 4th rounder Matt Morgan last year, and that may explain his return to the GCL. The club has more invested in Morgan, and even though he has been a disappointment with the bat in his first two pro seasons, the club may be trying to accelerate his development after two years in the GCL.
In addition to 2016 2nd rounder IF Bo Bichette, SS Kevin Vicuna, another 2014 IFA, is a player to watch. Of Norberto Obeso hit .351 and drew an amazing 58 walks in 71 games in the DSL last year, and it will be interesting to see if his power develops.
Ist round pick T.J Zeuch has also been added to the roster, but that may be because he hasn't pitched since May, and the club may want to monitor him while building him up before shipping him out to Vancouver.
In Praise of Pentecost A regular reader of this blog (and prolific Tweeter) had been critical of the 2014 1st rounder a few weeks ago, because after a hot start, his batting average had dipped to as low as .255
I won't mention names, but I took that particular Tweep to task, because of all the metrics by which to evaluate minor league hitters, batting average may be the least effective.
Blue Jays minor league instructor Steve Springer calls batting average, "the biggest trap in baseball."
If the goal of every hitter is to get on base, Pentecost is accomplishing that in spades in his first pro action in almost two years. He's in the midst of a 21-game on base streak for Lansing, and has been getting on base at a .362 clip since his return in May.
What we tend to forget sometimes is that while they keep score, development trumps winning for much of the minor league season. Hitters are often implementing new tweaks to their swing in minor league games, which to may explain and 0-fer stretch. Pentecost certainly had to make some adjustments, but even when his average dipped, he was seeing lots of pitches and getting on base.
Here's a double he hit earlier this month. Note the quick hands, and how he the speedy Pentecost reaches 2nd long before the throw has come in from the outfield. This guy is an athlete:
Promotions
The promotions of Jason Leblebijian and Derrick Loveless created some domino-effect like openings at the lower levels. Lansing OF Josh Almonte was sent to Dunedin to take Loveless' place, and Vancouver OF Juan Tejada moved up to take Almonte's. Lansing IF Gunner Heidt moved up to Dunedin to fill Lebelbijian's spot.
Two weeks ago, P Sean Reid-Foley and P Conner Greene were elevated to Dunedin and New Hampshire, respectively. Neither were thrilled with repeating this year, but it's hard to argue with the results.
It will be interesting to see if either Angel Perdomo, who struck out 12 in six innings in his last start, or Jon Harris gets the nod to take Greene's spot in the D-Jays rotation, joining former Lansing teammate Francisco Rios, who was named to the Futures Game roster this week.
Connor Panas Yet another GTA product is heating up with Lansing.
I liked what I saw of his compact, but powerful swing in spring training, but he had not put things together until the past few weeks. He's homered in 4 straight games, 5 of his last 6, and 6 of his last 10, hitting .378 over that stretch. His 9 round trippers have him just one off the Midwest League lead. One of this shots this week was measured at 447 feet.
The play of Panas has moved Juan Kelly over to 3rd, and has added a potent bat to the Lugnuts' lineup.
After a week off, it's time for another look around the Blue Jays minor league system.
Who's in Line for a Promotion? Full season minor leagues are a only a few weeks away from mid-season, which is usually the time when organizations bump their top-performing prospects up to the next level.
Over the past few seasons, this has been a busy time for those of us who follow Blue Jays prospects, but the pickings appear to be slimmer this time around.
One of the reasons for that would be an apparent change in philosophy by the new regime running the development side of the organization. The multi-level promotions of prospects within a season like that of Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey, and Kendall Graveman may be a thing of the past.
Another factor is likely that after all of former GM Alex Anthopoulos' trade deadline wheeling and dealing is that many of the fastest rising prospects are no longer in the organization.
When teams promote a player, there are many considerations. A player's readiness from a competitive point of view is probably chief among them, but teams also consider the physical and emotional maturity of the player.
It is somewhat easier to decide if a pitcher is ready more so than a hitter, based on the organization's assessment of his delivery, fastball command, and secondary pitches. With a hitter, there are more performance-related aspects to consider - does he have weaknesses in his swing and/or pitch recognition that will be exploited by pitchers at the next level? Is there a position for him to play?
In deciding whether or not to promote a player, teams gather opinions from many people in the organization: the player's manager and coach, minor league instructors, farm department people, and scouting staff. In addition to the above, they consider the player's makeup - does he have the work ethic to hone the skills he may need to upgrade to succeed at the next level? How well will he handle the pressure? How will he react in the event of adversity?
This year, the organization decided to send Anthony Alford and Conner Greene back to Dunedin to start the year, even though Greene had ended 2015 with New Hampshire, and Alford cracked the upper levels of many Top 100 lists. Sean Reid-Foley was sent to Lansing, even though he had spent time in Dunedin last year. The message to these players was that they still had aspects of their game to work on, and that promotions were not necessarily guaranteed. Alford missed a month of action after being injured in a home plate collision in Dunedin's first game and is just getting his timing back, while Reid-Foley has had some ups and downs as he adjusts to a tweaked delivery (which I'll detail in a future post), but was masterful in his last start against Dayton, an 8-inning, 10K effort, which has to have lifted his stock considerably with Lansing. Greene would seem to be the likeliest candidate of the three, although there isn't necessarily an opening for him in New Hampshire's rotation at the moment.
The prospect with the highest chance of being elevated would have to be Jon Harris. After failing to get out of the first inning in his first start of the year in April, Harris has been lights out, running off a 34 inning scoreless streak over his next 6 starts before coming back to earth (9 hits, 7 earned runs in 4.1 IP) in his last start. Harris has dominated Midwest League hitters, and there appears to be a spot in Dunedin's rotation for him. As much as the new management seems to wanting to be taking things gradually with their top prospects, it will be a surprise if the 2015 1st rounder is still in Lansing a month from now.
Beyond Harris and possibly Greene, it's hard to see another player being elevated at this point. Of course, a pair of Lansing relievers (Colton Turner and Connor Fisk) and starter Francisco Rios were promoted earlier this month. RHP Patrick Murphy was promoted from extended to Lansing a few weeks ago. If there was a name that might be worth mentioning, however, it's that of New Hampshire OF Dwight Smith Jr, who has hit .390 over his last 10 games, and has been a big part of the Fisher Cats resurgence, although there does not appear to be a spot for him in Buffalo's outfield at the moment.
Smoral on the Rebound When I get asked "whatever happened to...?" about a prospect, Smoral's name almost always comes up.
The 2012 sandwich rounder has had a hard time staying healthy, putting together only one solid season (and in short season ball, at that) during his time in the Blue Jays system.
Back issues kept him in extended last year, and his season came to a crashing halt in August when he took a line drive off his temple.
He pitched for the first time since then earlier in May in extended, and after a rough outing pitched much better in a two-inning inter squad stint just over a week ago. Baby steps to be sure, but perhaps Smoral is on the road to resuming his career. The good news is that he's pitching, period.
Jordan Romano Update I like to keep an eye on as many Canadian born and raised prospects as I can; those who toil in the Blue Jays organization are a special interest.
Romano, a 10th round pick from Oral Roberts in 2014, missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Regular readers of this blog know that I've been following his progress closely since then. Checking in with him last week, the Markham native was upbeat (as usual), and informed that he will be working as a starter this year. When asked what the difference in his mindset between relieving (which he did in his first year in the system) and starting, Romano responded:
I'm getting my reps in down here but I'm itching to get out of here. The biggest thing for me is not letting a bad or good inning effect my mindset for the next inning. Keep the same mentality going into every inning. It's pretty fun going 5 or 6 instead of 1.
Romano reports no problems with his elbow, which many Tommy John patients report in their first few months after starting to throw again, "Just regular general stiffness, there's like no extra soreness in my elbow after throwing." For now, Romano is biding his time, waiting either for a spot in Lansing, or in short season in a couple of weeks. Reports from Florida indicate that he hit 97 in a game against the Pirates. At 6'4"/200, he is yet another long, lean, and athletic pitching prospect that the organization is stockpiling.
A Dearth of Hitters? Scouting amateur pitchers, in many ways, is a less complex task than scouting hitters.
Scouts can easily identify a pitcher with promising mechanics, fastball velocity/command, and secondary pitches, regardless of the competition. That's not necessarily the case with hitters, where the unevenness of competition, especially at the high school level, can cloud a hitter's potential.
This may be one of the reasons the Blue Jays have shown a preference for high school pitchers - even after last July, 14 of the Top 30 Blue Jays prospects according to MLB Pipeline are pitchers.
The Blue Jays have tried to choose hitters in the upper rounds of the draft (except for 2013, when 11 of their first 12 picks were pitchers), but to this point there have been more misses than hits. The international market has seen a similar focus on pitchers - the only true potential impact bat IFA signing during the Anthopoulos era was Franklin Barreto, who went to Oakland in the Josh Donaldson deal.
While you can't put a lot of stock in minor league statistics, this one stands out:
Lansing has the third-lowest (.216) batting average in all of minor league baseball. New Hampshire ranks last in the Eastern League in batting average, and is next-to-last in slugging and OBP. For all their strengths in identifying possible impact arms, the Blue Jays have had great difficulty developing high-level bats. At the moment, about the only hitters who might project favourably at the major league level are Alford, Rowdy Tellez (whose bat has awoken after a slow start), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who not surprisingly is struggling a bit with offspeed stuff in extended.
While the Blue Jays have focused on pitching, the Red Sox have drafted the likes of Mookie Betts and signed IFA's like Xander Bogaerts, who project to be first-division players for the next decade. Perhaps this will change with the new regime - the top 3 Indians prospects at the moment are hitters, and their system has already graduated Francisco Lindor. With an aging core of everyday players, however, there does not promise to be a great deal of immediate help from the farm system.
Dwight Smith Jr on a Tear
So not all is doom and gloom when it comes to the hitting prospects. After a slow start, the 2011 sandwich rounder is tearing the cover off the ball for New Hampshire, helping to revive a moribund Fisher Cat offence.
Hitting as low as .206 on May 14th, Smith has been on a tear, hitting .364 over his last 10 games, and logging six multi-hit games during that stretch. Smith is repeating AA after an injury and inconsistency riddled 2015, and while the organization would likely prefer to see a more sustained stretch of this type of production, you would have to think he will see AAA Buffalo at some point this season.
The knock on Smith has been that he does not have the kind of power a corner outfield bat should have, and the organization did experiment with him at 2nd in the Arizona Fall League a few seasons ago. Just the same, his line-drive stroke is hard to ignore, and he may be finally starting to put things together.
