A Look at What's In the System

Tim Mayza - Clutchlings Photo

   With the Toronto Blue Jays struggling to score runs,  and a recent Statscast release demonstrating that in terms of baserunning speed, they have one of the slowest lineups in baseball,  thoughts of many fans are turning into what volume of selling the club will be doing at the trade deadline.
    It's hard to predict either way what the team will do at the end of this month.  A decent winning streak could put them right back into the thick of things.  But with Troy Tulowitzki struggling, Kevin Pillar reverting to career norms, and minus the spark that Devon Travis provided, it's hard to see this team playing meaningful September baseball.  The question for Blue Jays management is whether or not a quick fix, in the form of trades to shore up weak spots in the lineup is the answer, or if a complete tear-down is more in order.
   Before a team decides to blow it up and start from scratch, they have to take stock of their minor league systems.  Are there players who are close enough that their development as every day major leaguers won't be impaired by rushing them?  Are there enough players at key positions?  Will rebuilding be a long, painful, and attendance-costing process, or is there enough talent at the upper levels of the system to keep the team competitive?


   Here's a look, position-by-position, at what's in the system, and how close those players might be.

Catcher
   This is possibly the deepest position in the system - quite a turnaround from even a year ago.
Danny Jansen has gone fron oft-injured to AA All Star in the course of a year.  Reese McGuire underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in May and is out until at least August, and was replaced by Jansen.  Max Pentecost returned to Catching duties this year after two  Going deeper into the system, recent draftees Riley Adams and Hagen Danner show tremendous promise.
   Jansen and McGuire (that's the order I see them in - Jansen should become the everyday receiver, with McGuire a more than competent back up who can allow the Blue Jays to keep Jansen's bat in the lineup once in a while as a DH) are both at least a year away, while the newbies in the system are several.
   With Russ Martin under contract for two more years, and Miguel Montero just picked up from the Cubs, this position does not seem to be a priority for the Jays to re-tool.  With 3 decent prospects in full season ball, and a pair in short season, this is a position of strength for the organzation, and if the club was looking to upgrade the major league roster, this might be an area to deal from.

Corner Infielders
   This was the year that Rowdy Tellez was going to challenge Justin Smoak for a job by mid-season.
   So much for that.
    Tellez faced on and off-field struggles this half   His bat has started to show signs of life, but he's hovered around the Mendoza Line for much of the season to date.  Tellez was one of the youngest players in AA last year, and at 22, he's one of the youngest again at AAA.  There's not much to be gained by rushing him at this point.
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr may be on his way to best-prospect-in-baseball status, but he's still only 18, and several years away.
   There isn't much else at these positions.

Middle Infielders
    There is truly a glut of players in the system who can play 2nd and SS.   The most promising, of course, is Guerrero's bashing Lansing brother Bo Bichette, who is still a few years away as well.
  Richard Ureña was one of the youngest players in AA at the start of the season.  After settling many questions about his bat the past two years, he's struggled at the plate this year.  There is no doubt about his defensive skills.  He is the eventual successor to Troy Tulowitzki, but he likely is destined to be a bottom third of the order hitter.
    Jason Leblebijian has had the most successful season of any Blue Jays middle infielder.  Once viewed as an org guy, he went to Australia a couple of seasons ago, mashed his way to an MVP award, and seemingly hasn't stopped hitting.  At 26, his prospect status is starting to wane, however, and he can't really be viewed as a long-term answer.
    Top draft pick Logan Warmoth made his pro debut in the GCL, and now is a fixture in Vancouver's lineup.  He may even make it to Lansing by the end of the summer. He's not likely to make his MLB debut this decade, though.
   Lourdes Gurriel is something of a wild card here.  He could profile as a SS, 2B, or a LF.  After not playing for almost two years following his defection from Cuba, the Blue Jays expected some rust, but injuries have slowed his development this year.  A recent series against Bradenton showed some issues with bat speed and timing, but that apepars to be coming around now that he's healthy and in the lineup of AA New Hampshire every day.

Outfielders
   Blue Jays fans got a glimpse of the future when toolsy Anthony Alford made his MLB debut this year.  It was a brief one, of course, but if his recovery from wrist surgery goes well, (he's been back for about a week), there's every chance we see him in a Blue Jays uniform this summer.
   And the stock of good players at this position who are close begins and ends with Alford.  Roemon Fields has put together a surprising .298/.348/.385 line at Buffalo, but has struggled throughout much of his full-season minor league career to get on base enough to take advantage of his speed.  Dwight Smith Jr likewise has put up decent numbers at AAA, and even hit well in a brief audition with the big club, but he and Fields really should be considered to be no more than fourth outfielders at best.
   Edward Olivares has opened at lot of eyes at Lansing this year, but has to prove that he can maintain that kind of contact at the higher levels.  An aside: watching Olivares take BP earlier this year, it was kind of mystifying to watch him drive so many pitches into the top of the cage in an obvious attempt to put some loft on the ball.  Given his build and speed, an observer might have been tempted to think that a line drive, on-base approach might be better.  During the game that followed, Olivares lofted a HR over the wall in Left-Centre, a noteworthy blast in April at Cooley Law School Stadium.  He is a five-tool player (leads all Midwest League OFs in Assists) and a premium athlete who is still several years away.
2016 2nd rounder J.B. Woodman has swung and missed at a lot of pitches so far this year in the Midwest League.
  Dalton Pompey continues to try to stay healthy and see his name on the lineup card every day.
  This is not a positon of depth in the system, however.

Starting Pitchers
   Sean Reid-Foley would have been considered the top starting prospect in the system this year.  In his first try at AA, he's been too fine with his pitches, and has had his ups and downs, athough his most recent outing was a gem.  He's also only 21, and obviously needs more time.
    The same could be said of Conner Greene, who's walking hitters at a career-high rate (5.5/9) as SRF's rotation-mate.  Greene has shown flashes of brilliance, but has yet to put a solid stretch together - he walked 8 and fanned only 2 over only 4 innings in his last start.
   TJ Zeuch, the club's 1st round pick last year, showed promise in High A, but struggled to stay healthy as many pitchers do in his first full season, and is on the DL.  He's resumed baseball activities since being shut down a month ago, but there is not date for his return.
   Ryan Borucki was added to the 40-man last August, but his lengthy injury history prompted the team to shut him down briefly early in the season, and he was on a pitch-count limit until June.  Teammate and GTA product Jordan Romano has probably been the best starter in the Blue Jays system this year, although he may profile more as an MLB reliever. Both have to be considered two-three years away.
   Justin Maese reached Lansing in only his second pro season (quite a feat for a high school P) last August, but he too has been shut down with shoulder issues.  He returned to action in a GCL rehab stint this week, but the club is likely understandably reluctant to rush things.  Both Maese and Zeuch are several years away.
   Southpaw Angel Perdomo has been brought slowly through the system, and has pitched well at High A this year.  Most scouts are of the belief that his lights-out fastball will play better in a bullpen one day, but the Blue Jays are content for now to allow him to continue to develop as a starter.
   2015 1st rounder Jon Harris has had his struggles at AA this year, but seems to be turning things around.
   Yennsy Diaz has dazzled Midwest League hitters with his electric fastball since making his full season debut last month.  If his secondaries continue to develop, he will be an arm worth watching.

Relief Pitchers
   If there is one area that has consistently been one of the deepest pools of talent in the system.
Which is a good thing, considering the short shelf life of the modern day MLB reliever.
   Chris Rowley has rocketed through the system after being released from his military commitment last February.  He does not blow hitters away, but uses a combination of location and movement to keep hitters off balance.  He pitched in relief last year and for the first two months of this year, but injuries in New Hampshire's rotation forced him into a starting role.  He has been lights out in either capacity, earning a promotion to Buffalo.  The Blue Jays would have preferred to keep him in relief, according to a team official, but he's proven valuable in the swing man role.  He's knocking on the door of a major league job.
   Southpaw Matt Dermody has made tremendous strides since being switched to full-time bullpen duties two years ago, and even made a few appearances with the big club last fall.  He was hit hard in his only MLB outing this year, and has given up some contact with Buffalo, but is still striking out a batter per inning.  Fellow lefty Tim Mayza turned some heads in spring training, and after dazzling with an electric fastball that hits 97.  RHP John Stilson and his 96 mph fastball have been knocking on the major league door for some time, but injuries seem to keep getting in the way.
  At AA, Dusty Isaacs and New Brunswick's Andrew Case (recetnly promoted to Buffalo) haven't had a lot of opportunities to close the door on opponents for the last-place Fisher Cats, but have been very effective in late inning situations.  And while we usually don't go below that level to look for potential bullpen arms, Kirby Snead, Zach Jackson and Jackson McClelland have put together impressive seasons first at Lansing and now Dunedin.
   This is another position of strength for the organization in terms of depth.

Zach Jackson - Clutchlings photo

    In short, this is a system with a growing stockpile of talent, but there is little of it that's ready to step into an everyday role with the big league club.  Alford is the most obvious candidate, but the struggles of Tellez, Reid-Foley, and Greene indicate that they're still at least a year away.  Bichette and Guerrero are clearly the jewels of the system, but 2019 would have to be the earliest we would see them, and that date is probably a bit on the optimistic side.
    There is some trade depth if the Blue Jays were looking to upgrade the major league roster.  If Pentecost does not pan out behind the plate, his athleticism would be a fit for many teams.  Olivares offers a toolkit that might be very tempting.  And despite not being able to offer more than a $300K bonus to any of their international signings last year in the hangover that was the 2015 Vladdy Jr signing, there are some intriguing arms in that group.
    It's hard to say which way the Blue Jays management group is leaning, but if past performance is any indication, this is an administration which prefers to build from within, using young controllable players.  We're not apt to see the likes of Alex Anthopoulos' dealing two years ago (he traded 18 prospects in the span of eight months).   Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro is well aware of the risks of doing a full-on tear down, and is not likely to make a wholesale overhaul of the major league roster. The deals that he and GM Ross Atkins would make, if any, would probably involve the return of upper-level prospects for players on the 25-man with soon to be expiring contracts.  With a stable of prospects reaching the middle levels of the system this year, and a likely Top 10 draft pick next year barring a remarkable second half turnaround, it seems more likely that the Blue Jays will not be holding a fire sale later this month, but may look to move one or two contracts, with an eye to the club becoming more competitive in the next two years.

 

 
 
 

Mid-Season Prospect Update with Gil Kim

Clutchlings photo

   Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim is a busy, busy man.
Between overseeing players and staff among the Blue Jays 8 minor league affiliates, co-ordinating with the High Performance division, and meeting recently drafted players at the Bobby Mattick Minor League complex in Dunedin at a four-day mini-camp, he can be a hard man to pin down.

   Kim did agree to take some time out to discuss the progress of several prospects throughout the system.


Injury Update
   The Blue Jays opt to err on the side of caution with their younger prospects, particularly those who are relatively new to full season ball.  As a result, placing players on the DL and sending them to Dunedin for rest and rehab is a common precautionary practice.  That seems to be the case with Max Pentecost, who hasn't played since June 9th.  Slowed by a back strain in his return to full-time Catching duty after Danny Jansen was promoted to New Hampshire to replace the injured Reese McGuire, the Jays opted to shut the 2014 1st round draft choice down for a few weeks.  According to Kim, all indications are that he's doing well in rehab, and should be back in action shortly.
  Speaking of McGuire, who underwent arthroscopic surgery for a torn meniscus in late May, Kim reports that he is rehabbing well, but there is no timetable for his return, although it's expected to be before the end of the season.
   2016 1st rounder T.J. Zeuch has been on the DL since the beginning of June.  Kim wouldn't disclose what the injury was (it has to be shoulder related), but Zeuch is on a throwing program and is expected back soon.
   Lansing starting pitching stalwarts Justin Maese and Patrick Murphy have both been shut down. Maese has been rehabbing a sore shoulder, and hasn't started in a month.  A hamstring slowed Murphy down, and he hasn't pitched in three weeks.  Kim says both are on the mend, and should return to action shortly.
   Anthony Alford, as has been well documented, had surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in his wrist.  He too is doing well in Dunedin, and is expected back for the second half of the season, but there is no timetable yet.

Bo and Vladdy Jr
   As fans, we check out the MiLB box scores every morning to see how our favourite prospects fared. Each promotion up the ladder brings them one step closer to the Major Leagues, where we can see them live and in person.  If there's one question I've been asked most often lateley, it has to be, "when are Bo and/or Vladdy Jr getting promoted?"
   It's understandable that we want to catch a glimpse of players who for the most part have been only names on a webpage.  It's just as understandable that MLB teams want to stick to the plan for their top prospects.
  Kim was non-commital about when (or if) the two Lansing sluggers will get promoted.  All minor league prospects have a skill set that they're working on, and it's no big secret that the High Performance department has been working on agility and strength on the defensive side of the ball with both prospects.  Bichette, in particular, has been working on first-step quickness, working with Lansing Manager Cesar Martin and Hitting Coach Donnie Murphy on fielding countless groundballs.  Guerrero, for his part, is working on his defensive game, too, trying to become quicker at fielding slow rollers, and improving his overall range at 3rd. Both are learning how to play every day, to prepare for games, and how to recover from them afterwards.  As much as we want this to be a fast process, sometimes it isn't.  Both players are very age-appropriate for Low A ball, and Kim's philosophy could be summed up as, "why rush things?"
   Certainly, both have laid waste to Midwest League pitching.  After hitting the .400 mark a week ago, Bichette is hitting .394/.457/.627, and leads the league in several offensive categories.  He's hit in 51 of the 59 games he's played in, and has gone hitless in consecutive games only once.  Guerrero's numbers (.313/.406/.457) are not as gaudy, but no less impressive.  He's hit only .158 over his last 10, perhaps showing some signs of fatigue.
     The most likely path for Bichette is to spend at least the next few weeks with Lansing.  He has a decent chance of being named to July 9th's Futures Game roster, so a promotion after that may be in the offing.  Or, the team may decide to wait a few weeks and see what Lansing's post-season chances look like. Development does trump winning at the minor league level, but teams do like their top prospects to play together on teams that are making a playoff run.  Whatever the case, a promotion for either Bichette or Guerrero will not happen until there's a consensus among the Lansing and minor league staff that one or both are ready.
      A cautionary tale:  there's not a huge jump in terms of the quality of pitching between Low and High A, but the experience of Bradley Jones is one worth considering.  A more seasoned (22 years of age) college grad, Jones was promoted to Dunedin in early June after posting a line of .326/.394/.560 at Lansing.  Facing pitchers with better command of their fastball and secondaries, Jones has scuffled with the D-Jays, hitting only .156 and striking out in almost half of his 68 PAs.  Is the risk of Bichette having a similar experience (perhaps not to the same extent) worth the challenge of moving him to the next level?  Particularly as the season winds down, and his fatigue likely increases?  The Blue Jays will have those and other factors to consider very shortly.

The Importance of Make Up
   Kim stressed the importance of this aspect, which he called "the sixth tool," in evaluating and recruiting players for the organization.  It was a phrase which came up several times in discussions about prospects.  When I spoke to Angus Mugford a few weeks ago, it also was something we talked about at length.  The thinking is that there is so little difference among just about all players in terms of their physical abilities, but when push comes to shove, make up can be the difference.
 

Talking Prospects
   On Rowdy Tellez, who has scuffled mightily (.197/.273/.321 to this point):

  Rowdy we remember last year numbers-wise didn't get off to the start that we had wanted, then rebounded.  He kept working hard and finished the year off very well, and then he went to the Dominican Winter League and had a good season there.  I think right now with Rowdy - he's a young player in Triple A, and he's going through some experiences that are teaching him a lot about who he is, and we fully support him.  He's working hard in Buffalo with Devo (hitting coach Devon White), Meach (manager Bobby Meacham), and  (Field Co-ordinator) Eric Wedge.  We're confident that he's going to be fine, and this experience will be one that we're going to look back on when he's in the big league as one that helped him.

   On Max Pentecost, who returned to Catching duties for the first time since August, 2015:

We really can't say enough about his perserverance through the whole process, and his positivity....being able to channel that positive outlook into his daily routine.  He has done well on the offensive side, which was no surprise, but we were definitely surprised with the strides he's been able to make with his blocking, receiving, and game-calling - despite not having been back there a whole lot in the last couple of years.  It just helps so much when you have a former Catcher like John Schneider (Dunedin's Manager) back there who's passionate about teaching Catching, and has been a great help.

   On Anthony Alford:

Anthony probably along with Danny Jansen are the two most improved players we have, which in Anthony's case is no surprise, given his work ethic and positive attitude.  He became more consistent with his timing, and put in a lot of reps in the Outfield in Spring Training, and he's improved all around in terms of approach and consistent hard contact, and his OF/CF defence.  It's been a pleasure to see the type of player he's made himself into....this is all on him.

   On Danny Jansen, who was leading the Florida State League in hitting before being promoted to New Hampshire to replace McGuire:

Jano's a leader.....one of our strongest make up guys in the organization.  And what he's doing is not surprising, because he's one of those players who make adjustments and improve.  Coming into it, he was a late invite to big league camp, and his game has just taken off since the Arizona Fall League.  He's concentrating on using more of the field offensively, and has been improving his game-calling.  Schneider and (New Hampshire Manager and former MLB Catcher) Gary Allenson have been a big help there.

   Sean Reid-Foley, who has struggled this year (4.25 BB/9 rate, lowest - 40.7% GB rate of his career), but has started to turn things around in his last few starts:

Sean maybe didn't have the start that he had envisioned, but he has bounced back, and is getting back to his dominant self.  He maybe was pressing a bit early, but he's been doing very well working on maintaining that power delivery, while trying to incorporate his change up more.

   Conner Greene, who has not dominated in his second go-round of AA as some thought he might, although his 59% GB rate is second-best in the Eastern League:

Conner has improved....that's all we can ask.  He's taking all those steps every day to get better - consistency of delivery, fastball command.....hitters aren't necessarily as comfortable against his fastball as they were earlier in Spring Training or last year.  His curve has come a very long way - tighter spin on it, with harder action and depth.

  Chris Rowley, who has been something of a revelation this year, starting in New Hampshire's bullpen before being called upon to fill in for injured starter Francisco Rios.  Rowley is now pitching out of Buffalo's pen:

Chris just knows how to pitch.  He keeps hitters off balance, throws strikes, and competes.  He's another solid make up guy, a true professional, and we're not surprised by the strides that he's made.  We have no plans at the moment to move him out of the pen in Buffalo.

   2nd round draft pick Hagen Danner:

Hagen is going to Catch.  He'll start in the Gulf Coast League, like many of our high school players do.

 
Players Who Have Surprised
   When asked who has made some giant leaps forward in terms of their development so far this year, Kim offers two names:

Yennsy Diaz, RHP, who started the year in Extended, and has struck out 18 in 11 innings over 3 starts since being promoted to Lansing earlier this month:

Yennsy really has some of the best stuff in the organization.  He's worked hard at getting more consistent, and getting over top of the baseball on his pitches.  He's had a pretty solid start at Lansing.

OF Edward Olivares, who has quietly put together a .279/.315/.513 mark with 14 steals for Lansing:

Edward was injured last year, skipped a level this year.  He has some of the best tools in the organization, and is working hard at dialing it in and refining his game. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blue Jays Minor League Updates

Tim Leiper photo

   A couple of tidbits as we close in on the opening of MLB spring training, and the MiLB version a few weeks later.

Burns signs with Lotte
   Andy Burns was given his release so that he could sign with the Lotte Giants of the KBO.  Burns appeared in 10 games with the Blue Jays in 2016, going hitless in 7 plate appearances.  He was removed from the 40-man roster in November.
   An 11th round pick in 2011, Burns' versatility helped move him up the minor league ladder.  Originally a SS, Burns can play all four infield positions, as well as the corner outfield spots.  He told his hometown Coloradan, he's excited about the prospect playing in baseball-crazy South Korea:

"They absolutely love baseball over there," said Burns, who will leave for South Korea near the end of January. "It's going to be a really fun baseball atmosphere. I'm excited to get over there."

  Burns reportedly signed a one-year deal with Lotte, and may return to play stateside in 2018.

Hollon Released
   Word came via Vancouver freelancer Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey on Twitter) when he tweeted from the Canadians annual Hot Stove luncheon that Blue Jays Minor League Coordinator Charlie Wilson informed him that RHP Clinton Hollon has been released.
   To say that the 2013 2nd rounder has a checkered past would be putting it mildly.  Considered to be in possession of a first-round arm, concerns about his elbow and his makeup caused him to fall to the 2nd round, where he signed for below slot.  Hollon underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014, and missed the entire season.  He came back impressively in 2015, pitching well for Vancouver and Lansing, before receiving a 50-game suspension in late August for a positive PED (amphetamines) test.  Then, just before he was set to return to action in late May, he received another 50-game penalty for a positive test for a drug of abuse.
   The Blue Jays stood by Hollon, and invited him to Instructs last fall.  Obviously, somewhere along the way the club felt that his mental and/or physical approach to the game was lacking, which is why they decided to release him.  The club has shown little tolerance for recreational drug use in the past, sending prospects Tyler Gonzales and Kramer Champlin packing after positive tests.
   You can't help but feel for Hollon, but at the same time, he likely was given ample opportunity to redeem himself, and failed to do so.  He denied knowingly taking amphetamines, which probably did not enamour him to the organization.  Given his electric arm, there still likely will be a team that will given him another chance.

Six Prospects Invited to Spring Training with the Big Club
  In addition to recent 40-man additions Richie Urena and Anthony Alford, six prospects were invited to the Blue Jays Major League training camp when it opens next month.
   Extending invitations to these players gives them a valuable experience from several perspectives.  Not only do they get to practice with and compete against MLB players and play in front of MLB spring training crowds, they get an opportunity to see the work ethic that propelled those MLB players to their team's 25-man rosters.  Alford was invited to his first spring training in 2015, and said that he learned a lot about preparation and how to conduct himself from watching Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista.  RHP Conner Greene was expected to begin last year at AA New Hampshire after spending the final month of the 2015 season there, but the club felt that he needed to work on his routine between starts, so he returned to High A Dunedin to start 2016.  He did improve on that routine, and no doubt his invitation was meant to serve as another lesson in his baseball education.

  Joining Greene will be 1B Rowdy Tellez, C Reese McGuire, OF Dwight Smith Jr, 2B Jon Berti, and relievers Will Browning and Tim Mayza.  Of this group, only Tellez might have a shot at breaking camp with the big team, although barring further roster moves, he appears headed for AAA Buffalo to start the season. Mayza and Browning are on the verge of joining the decent corps of relievers the Blue Jays have stockpiled in the upper levels of the system.  There have been some who suggest that Greene might be in line for a bullpen job this spring, but while his command issues would be likely improved if his repertoire of pitches was cut down in a relief role, the organization still views him as a starter.

  There was some concern last year that the Blue Jays minor league hitters did not get enough reps in spring training, and it caused some teams (New Hampshire, in particular) to get off to a slow start.   While having hitters in camp like Tellez is beneficial for them, it can also take away from their actual playing time, and it will be interesting to see how long they stay in camp before being shipped to the minor league complex this spring.

MLB Draft Order Set
   The Orioles' signing of Mark Trumbo took care of the last remaining free agent with compensation attached, meaning that the order for the June MLB draft has now been set.
   The Blue Jays will get the 22nd pick, as well as the 28th pick as compensation for the loss of free agent Edwin Encarnacion.  While the loss of Encarnacion hurts, the chance to pick two players in the top 30 could bode well for the future of the organization.  It might also give the team a chance to roll the dice with one of those two picks - they could play it safe with a proven college bat or arm with one, and take a chance on a high school player with high upside but equally high risk with the other.  Either way, it will help a system on the rebound add some more depth.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects

   2016 was a year of steady, if not spectacular growth in the Toronto Blue Jays farm system.
After former GM Alex Anthopoulos dealt 18 prospects to improve the major league roster in an eight-month period, the system was bound to go through a dry spell.
   The good news is that there was some talent in the lower levels of the system that showed encouraging signs; the bad news is that there's still a lack of upper-level depth - there are no Blue Jays prospects in Baseball America's Top 50, and only 3 in the back end of the Top 100.
   The new Mark Shapiro-Ross Atkins regime opted to pump the brakes somewhat on the development of prospects.  Promotions were still in the offing, but this is an organization that now opts for a slow but steady approach to bringing a prospect through the system.  It's not likely we will see a player sail through three or four levels in a season, as Dalton Pompey, Daniel Norris, and Kendall Graveman did in 2014, anytime soon. The message to prospects was clear:  you will not be rushed, nor will you make it to the next level until you've checked all the boxes on your list of skills to improve.
   The club's draft philosophy, in what turned out to be Brian Parker's last as head of amateur scouting, took a shift in direction.  After showing a preference for projectable athletes (ie, high school pitchers), the team dipped into the college ranks, taking collegians with 5 of their first 6 picks.  This may have been in the interest of re-stocking the system quickly after Anthopoulos raided the cupboard last year, or it may indicate a desire to go with safer, more polished players who are closer to MLB-ready.  The addition of former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, who will help oversee player development, is a huge boost to the organization, and will no doubt bring some of his advanced player evaluation methods to the club.
   The system is no longer among the bottom in terms of rankings, but it's not near the top, either.

 


1.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr  3B
ETA:  late 2019, early 2020
Future Outlook  impact, middle of the order bat
Calling Card:  advanced strike zone judgement, Home Run Derby power

   A year ago, I was hard pressed to include a 16-year old who had never stepped on a professional field in the Top 10 list, and placed him at the back end.
   Now, after watching him handle Appalachian League pitching very well as a 17 year old, I am all in.  In naming him the Appy League's top prospect, despite being the loop's youngest player, Baseball America said:

Guerrero showed elite hard-hit ability, consistently squaring up pitches and covering the plate well. He shows plus bat speed, natural timing in the box, an understanding of the strike zone and an ability to recognize and track offspeed pitches.

   It's early, and there are hurdles for the young slugger to face, but he is already shaping up as possibly the best hitting prospect the organization has ever produced.
  Vlad Jr has shown strike zone judgement (12% walk rate), bat speed (he slugged .449), and an ability to use the whole field:

MLBfarm.com

   That's three ingredients for future success.

   The biggest concerns about Guerrero heading into 2016 were his bulky build, and his ultimate position.  While he'll never be a 30-30 guy like his Dad (he will draw more walks than his Father did, though), Vlad Jr stole 15 bases in 20 attempts, which owed more to base running smarts than it did outright speed, but demonstrated another facet of his game.

   Reports on Guerrero at the hot corner suggested that he was at least adequate in terms of range, footwork, and hands, and has the arm strength to stick there a while longer.  He'll continue to work on his skills at 3rd during Fall Instructional League.

   Guerrero hit .271 and had an .808 OPS - a late season swoon in which he went 3-25 dropped his numbers, but this is a player who more than held his own in his first pro season against players 3-4 years older than him.  If he grew up stateside, Vlad Jr would just be heading into his senior year of high school. Much has been made of his build, which leaned toward the slightly chubby side when he signed, but reports indicate that like Rowdy Tellez and Roberto Osuna before him, Guerrero is slowly transforming his body through training and nutrition.

    I wasn't convinced a year ago, but I'm more than convinced now.  This is a middle-of-the-order, impact bat in the making.  Guerrero has said he wants to be in the majors before he turns 20, and while the club will want to take things gradually with him, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him there by then.  Expect Guerrero to spend next season with Lansing.  He may take a bit of a step back at the start of the season with the colder weather and the more polished pitchers in the Midwest League, but there's every reason to believe he'll adjust.  This is a kid who skipped both the DSL and the GCL; there's some maturity there.
   With his soon to be Hall of Famer Dad in attendance, Jr knocked his first round tripper in his second pro game:

2.  Rowdy Tellez  1B
ETA:  late 2017, early 2018
Future Outlook:  middle of the order bat
Calling Card:  not a one-dimensional slugger; gets on base, uses the whole field.

   It's Rowdy time!
   I have been an enthusiastic fan of the oversized slugger since his first pro season.  The organization has patiently moved him through the system, and he has responded to every challenge.
   Sent to AA New Hampshire to start the season (when several of his fellow prospects were sent back to Dunedin for more seasoning) because of his advanced feel for the strike zone, Tellez did not see a lot of strikes in April, as pitchers avoided him and preferred to pitch to his slow-starting Fisher Cats teammates. Tellez did not expand his strike zone that month, and stayed patient, hitting only .164, but posting a .345 OBP.  As his teammates heated up, so did Tellez, and he put up solid numbers: .297/.387/.917, with 23 Homers, finishing 3rd in the Eastern League in Slugging and OPS.
   What has always impressed me the most about Tellez is that he's more than a one-dimensional slugger. There have always been concerns about his lack of speed and his fielding, but he has done as much as any player in the organization to transform his body and become more agile.  And while there's 30-Homer potential there, Tellez does not go up to the plate swinging from the heels, telling David Lauria of Fangraphs:

“I’ve watched a lot of guys over the years. The two I’ve really narrowed it down to watching — dissecting their swings and approaches — are Adrian Gonzalez and Anthony Rizzo. I look at how easy Gonzalez swings and I’ve adopted a little bit of what Rizzo does with two strikes. He takes out his leg kick and works on driving the ball the other way. He knows he can hit home runs to all fields, even with a two-strike approach and not having the leg kick. That’s what I’m doing now. If you can eliminate strikeouts… it’s a huge game-changer."

   The plan for Tellez is to begin the year with Buffalo in 2017, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and suggest that if the Blue Jays are unable to re-sign Edwin Encarnacion, and he has a decent spring, Tellez could break camp with the big club as the starting 1st Baseman next year.  Replacing Edwing's bat in the lineup will be a tall order, but Tellez could offer the club a player that gets on base, puts the ball in play, and isn't afraid to change his approach with two strikes.
   It's easy to picture this smooth left-handed stroke in the Rogers Centre:

3.  Anthony Alford OF
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook  Kenny Lofton-like lead off hitter
Calling Card:  game-changing speed and developing gap power

  2015 was a breakout year for the former two-sport star, who gave up his gridiron dreams in the fall of 2014 to focus on baseball after three years of part-time play since being drafted in the 3rd round of 2012. After a solid half season at Dunedin at the end of last season, it was reasonable to expect Alford would start at New Hampshire.  Not so fast, said the organization, recognizing his relative baseball inexperience, and the need to improve his pitch recognition and strike zone judgement, sending him back to the D-Jays to open the season.
   Injured in a home-plate collision on Dunedin's opening day, and put on the shelf again six weeks later with a concussion suffered in an outfield collision, Alford's first half was pretty much a wipeout.
   And that's not a bad thing.  Almost all successful prospects have to go through some adversity on their way up the ladder, and this year was the Mississippian's turn.  The bad times can be more instructive than the good times.
   After a .200/.277/.256 first half, Alford was finally healthy by July, and turned things around, posting a .257/.381/.449 line.  Alford's 117 strikeouts have to be a concern to the organization, although his K rate was 37% in the first half, when he was in and out of the lineup, and only 25% in the second, when he was a fixture atop the D-Jays' batting order.  The 7 Home Runs he hit in the 2nd half hint at some developing power.
   Alford has always trusted his ability, and he has learned to put failure on the field into perspective, as he told Milb.com:

"I'm just learning, learning more about myself. This season has been a good learning season for me because I've never had to deal with failure. I've failed a lot this year. I guess that's something I needed to go through," he said. "I'm not afraid to fail because I know myself and I know my ability and my mind-set. I'm going to overcome it and I'm going to make the adjustment because that's just who I am as an athlete."

   Even though he stole only 18 bases in 24 attempts after swiping 27 a year ago, Alford still profiles as a top of the order bat with game-changing speed.  He works the count well, and the club is hoping that he will learn not to expand his strike zone so much with two strikes to help cut down on the whiffs. That the organization still views him as a top prospect is evidenced by the fact that he was selected to play in the Arizona Fall League, where he will make up for some missed playing time, and hone his skills against top competition.  Alford will begin 2017 in New Hampshire, where he should regain much of his former prospect lustre.
   The Florida State League is a black hole for streaming video, so we'll have to make do with some clouds of dust as Alford triples for Lansing in 2015:

4.  Sean Reid-Foley  RHP
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook:  #2 or #3 starter; innings eater
Calling Card:  95 mph fastball with command to both sides of the plate

   The 2014 2nd rounder impressed many in his first year of full season ball last year, and after splitting time between Dunedin and Lansing last year, it was a bit of a surprise that he started the year in Michigan.
   But the new management team sent a clear message across the organization that promotion to the next level isn't automatic, and is contingent upon a prospect working on a number of things.
   And for Reid-Foley, that thing was commanding his fastball to both sides of the plate.
   As I wrote earlier this year, Reid-Foley came into 2016 with a new, simplified delivery.  First implemented at Instructs of Fall 2015, the new mechanics were meant to simplify things, and help Reid-Foley find a delivery that he could repeat consistently.  In 2015, he would lose the strike zone almost without warning during a game that he was cruising along in, and scouts noted that he lacked the experience to make the mechanical adjustments that would help him re-discover it, driving up his pitch count, and hastening his exit from the game.
  Reid-Foley fanned 59 in 58 innings in his first 11 starts with Lansing, with only 22 walks, earning a return trip to Dunedin, where he struck out a career-high 12 over 7 innings in his first start.  In his next start, he fanned only 3 thru 6, but more impressive was that he didn't walk a batter - in 57 innings with the D-Jays, he whiffed 71, while walking only 16.   His season would have been even more impressive had he not been shut down for the rest of the season after August 10th.  Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim told Sportsnet's Shi Davidi that it was for precautionary reasons:

"You always want to be conservative or cautious with pitchers and elbows. He returned to throwing three weeks ago, he’s doing fine, he feels great. It was more precautionary than anything. He had a great season, made a lot of positive strides, and we didn’t want to push anything there, although he wanted to pitch."

   Reid-Foley is a power pitcher who missed a lot of bats with his 93-95 fastball and wipeout slider.  Sent to Instructs once again, he'll try to refine command of his changeup.  There once were comparisons to Jonathan Papelbon, but Reid-Foley has demonstrated an ability to turn over a lineup, and now is the most promising starting pitcher in the organization.  Only three years out of high school, he will continue his slow but steady climb up the ladder at New Hampshire next year.

   SRF from 2015 displaying his swing-and-miss stuff:

5.  Richard Urena SS
ETA:  late 2017, early 2018
Future Outlook:  steady defensive middle infielder
Calling Card:  surprising pop - more than just a glove

   In July of 2012, the Blue Jays secured the services of the two highest-rated shortstops of the International free agent class.  Urena and Venezuelan Franklin Barreto moved up the lower levels of the organization in lock step, with Barreto usually a level ahead of Urena.  The consensus was that Barreto's defensive skill set was best suited to another position, and that Urena proejcted as a better defensive player, but when the two briefly played together in Vancouver in 2014, Barreto played short, and Urena played 3rd.
  That off season, when then-GM Alex Anthopoulos was in the midst of putting together a deal to acquire Josh Donaldson from Oakland, he had to decide which of the two youngsters was the team's shortstop of the future.
  He chose Urena.
  To be honest, I was disappointed that the club let Barreto go after winning the Northwest League MVP at the age of 18, but you have to give up something to get something, and one can hardly argue with the results of that deal.
   And Urena, who had been regarded as a defence-first player, has done nothing but hit in the ensuing two seasons, and actually out hit Barreto this year (.295/.334/.434 vs  .284/.342/.422) - Barreto spent much of his year in AA, while Urena was promoted to that level in August.
   Urena is a slick fielder, with quick twitch reactions.  The knock against his defensive skills was his tendency to nonchalant routine plays, a knack which he has cut back drastically on.  After starting the year at Dunedin (where he was named a Florida State League All Start despite missing the final month of the season), he was promoted to New Hampshire in August after putting up a .305/.351/.447 line, and he was a hit in the Eastern League, going 7-14 in his first three games, and demonstrating his speed and gap power with a pair of triples, and three more in a game a week later.
   Urena is aggressive at the plate, and jumps on fastballs early in the game.  He's shown improved plate discipline, and cut down on his strikeout totals from last year.  His swing from the right side has been a work in progress, and still needs further refining, although he posted respectable numbers.  In naming him their top Blue Jays mid-season prospect, MLB Pipeline noted:

Urena also made significant progress on defense last season by making only 23 errors in 120 games at shortstop, after he committed 40 in 119 games between his first two pro seasons. He has the tools to stick at the position, with soft hands, clean actions and plus arm strength. Urena may be a ways away from making an impact at the highest level, but he shows the makings of an everyday shortstop capable of hitting for some average and 15-20 homers in a given season.

  He has kind of gotten lost in the ascendancy of Tellez, SRF, and Guerrero, but Urena is on the verge of being MLB-ready.   While Troy Tulowitzki shows no signs of slowing down, he's Tulo's eventual successor at short.  With Tellez, Urena, and Greene in the lineup next year, AAA Buffalo will be a team worth watching.
  Urena triples for his first AA hit in August:

6.  Conner Greene RHP
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook: mid rotation starter
Calling Card:  pounder of the lower half of the strike zone
 
   Greene caught a heavy dose of helium last year, in his first campaign of full season ball, beginning the year at Lansing, and finishing at New Hampshire.  Invited to MLB spring training, he had a successful debut, and appeared set to step back on that rocket ride to the top.
   Except like Reid-Foley, he still had things to work on, and was sent back to Dunedin, fastball command and his secondaries being the items in question.  Kim also told Sportsnet's Davidi that there were some things he needed to work on between starts:

This year he worked on his five-day routine … becoming more consistent, whether it’s side sessions, or long toss, locking everything in with the same focus he has on the mound. Those are areas of his game that have improved.

   By mid-season, Greene was back in AA, and seemed to alternate lights out appearances with ones in which he was knocked around.  He did throw six innings of no-hit ball in one mid-August start.  Greene sits 92-94 with his fastball, and has a change that is particularly effective.  He did not miss as many bats this year as he did last year (2016 on the top, 2015 on the bottom).....

 
      ....but he did generate more ground ball outs, evidence of his success in keeping his pitches down in the zone.
   There is a tendency to think that Greene took a slight step backward in his development this year if you make that kind of judgement based solely on his numbers.  Still, he is young (he turned 21 as the season opened in April), but this was truly a year of refinement for the athletic righthander.  It's easy to look solely at a prospect's numbers for a given season and ignore the body of work and the ongoing adjustments that were part of it.  Even after a breakout season in 2015, there was still room for improvement.  Greene may begin the year at New Hampshire, but should see Buffalo by season's end.

   

7.  Jon Harris RHP
ETA: 2018
Future Outlook: durable back of the rotation arm
Calling Card:  lots of groundball outs
   During the Alex Anthopoulos era, the Blue Jays showed a preference for drafting athletic high school pitchers who may not have always been at the top of the scouting lists, but fit a profile that promised future projection.  HS pitchers have always been among the biggest gambles in the draft, but the Blue Jays shunned tradition, with the goal of getting those athletes into the system as soon as possible in order to overhaul just about every aspect of their pitching profile.
   One of those was a 6'2/150 pitcher from surburban St Louis who was so skinny he probably had to run around in the shower to get wet named Jon Harris, in the 33rd round.  Harris opted to attend Missouri State, and the Blue Jays were ecstatic when his name was still on the board three years later when it came time to make their first overall pick at number 29.  Harris had grown to 6'4"/190, and had become one of the top collegiate pitchers in the nation.
   His first summer in pro ball was not a successful one, however, as Harris struggled with this command at Vancouver, missing the plate on many occasions, or finding too much of it on others.  There was talk that Harris was worn down from a long NCAA season, but there were also suggestions that his delivery, which had a lot of moving parts, was to blame.  A major re-make of hs mechanics was in store during Instructs, and you can see the results from one of his final college outings to one with Lansing this spring. The deliveries are similar, but his hands rise over his head in the bottom one, leading to a more deliberate motion, and a less awkward finish, leaving him in a better fielding positon:


via GIPHY

via GIPHY

   Harris was also taught the grip for a four-seam change up to go along with his four-seam fastball, and the results were impressive.  Sent to Lansing to start the season, Harris gave up an unearned run in his second start, then allowed no runs over his next six starts, a span of 32 innings.  In each of his final two starts, he struck out 11 in 7 innings, both career highs.  Harris was promoted to Dunedin in late July.
  Harris offers a four pitch mix, with his fastball, slider and change having been graded as potential plus pitches.  He sits 92-94 with that fastball, which has some heavy sink to it when he's on, leading to a lot of ground balls.  He commented during the season that keeping weight on was an issue for him throughout high school and college, but he's managed to pack on some pounds and strength.  Harris projects as an inning-eating back of the rotation arm, and he likely will repeat Dunedin next year for at least a half season.
 
8.  Max Pentecost C
ETA:  2019
Future Outlook:  Russell Martin's heir apparent
Calling Card:  plus athleticism, translating to success at the plate and on the basepaths
 
   When Pentecost took to the field (as a DH, actually) for Lansing, it marked his first game in almost two years.  Shut down after only 25 games with Vancouver after being drafted 11th overall by the Blue Jays in 2014, it took three surgeries to properly repair his throwing shoulder.
   Pentecost was limited to DH duties all year, but continued to work on his receiving skills on the sideline, and will continue to do so at Instructs.  The plan is to have him back behind the plate by spring training, meaning that 2017 will be a huge year for Pentecost.  It usually takes several hundred minor league games to develop a catcher, but Pentecost may have to cram a lot into a few years.
  For now, the big club is set with Russell Martin signed for 3 more seasons, and the acquisition of Reese McGuire this summer has helped to shore up a position that was becoming dangerously thin in the organization.  This buys Pentecost some valuable development time.
   Pentecost has a compact swing, and sprays the ball to all fields.  He is not the prototypical lumbering, base-clogging Catcher - he was labelled one of the best athletes in his draft class.  He showed some pop (10 Homers between Dunedin and Lansing - two tough HR parks - in just over 300 PAs), but his 32% K rate is on the high side for a guy with good speed.  Some of that may have been due to rust, but Pentecost needs to put the ball in play more.
    Pentecost will likely start the season at Dunedin, with a possible move to AA by mid-season.
In this video clip, Pentecost shows both his power and speed:

9.  T.J Zeuch RHP
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook: mid-rotation starter
Calling Card:  heavy fastball that bores in on right-handed hitters
   Zeuch missed the first month of his college season with a groin injury, and because his Pitt Panthers were eliminated from NCAA play in May, the 1st round pick didn't pitch until early July.  So, we didn't see a lot of the 6'7" righty.
   But rest assured, we will see plenty next year.
   Zeuch made 6 starts for Vancouver and Lansing, usually limited to around 75 pitches per outing.  He sat 92-94 with his fastball, and will no doubt be working on his secondary pitches at Instructs.
   With his size, Zeuch gets late life on his fastball, which gets in on hitters in a hurry.  He has a fair amount of sinking movement on his sinker, and his slider is probably his best off-speed pitch.  In his time with Vancouver, he missed bats, and generated a lot of weak contact:

   Zeuch will return to Lansing to start 2016.  Even though his mechanics may not need as much refining as did Harris', chances are we'll see a different Zeuch next season.  

10.  Bo Bichette SS/2B
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook:  power-hitting 2B
Calling Card:  elite bat speed

   The 2nd round pick this year laid waste to GCL pitching, putting up a video game-like line of .427/.451/.732 despite missing over a month after an emergency appendectomy in July.
   Almost any GCL stats should come with a disclaimer (his brother Dante hit .342/.446/.505 there in 2011, but hasn't hit above .271 since then), but it's hard not to be impressed with Bichette's approach, and the number of balls he squared up in Florida.
   Drafted as a SS, Bichette will be given a chance to stick there, but he will likely wind up at 2nd or possibly 3rd if his power continues to develop.  He has some of the fast-twitch reflexes necessary to play short, but his arm can be erratic. Scouts were concerned about his hitting mechanics prior to the draft, particularly his set-up, but it's hard to argue with the results.
   Our good internet friend Chris King, who evaluates pro and amateur players and lives not far from the Jays minor league complex, was impressed:

@brendonkuhn @CharlieCaskey easily best bat I've seen this year and having the most impact of any bat I've ever seen at this level

— Chris King (@StatsKing) July 16, 2016

   As an added bonus, Bichette and his brother Dante Jr were able to suit up for Brazil in their World Baseball Classic Qualifier in Brooklyn this past week.  Playing SS, Bichette showed both his upside and inexperience.  In one inning, he deftly fielded a groundball on the short hop, throwing across his body on the run to nip the runner at first.  Two batters later, he dove to his left to spear a sharply hit groundball, only to throw the ball wildly over his brother's head at 1st.  At the plate, in the pair of at bats I saw, he showed good patience in the first, not expanding his strike zone, and went the other way with a fastball for a base hit.  In his next plate appearance, perhaps a little frustrated at the steady diet of breaking balls he was seeing, he chased a pitch outside of the strike zone for strike three.
   Gil Kim calls Bichette one of the most projectable hitters in the system, and despite pre-draft concerns about his swing, the organization will not tinker with it at Instructs:

 We are not concerned with his mechanics or defense, but we will work in Instructs on getting him caught up with some ABs that he missed during the season. 

   Bichette was recently named the GCL's 4th best prospect by Baseball America, and gave this evaluation:

With hitting mannerisms reminiscent of Josh Donaldson, Bichette gears up for his swing with a leg kick, cranks his back elbow with a deep load, then accelerates the bat head into the hitting zone thanks to terrific bat speed. He keeps the barrel on plane through the zone for a long time, showing a mature approach and polished feel to hit for his age, and he quiets his swing when he gets into two-strike counts. He hits to all fields and drives the ball with plus power.

 It will not be a surprise at all if Bichette skips two levels to join Vladdy Jr at Lansing to start 2017.  If not for his appendectomy, he likely would have spent August playing under the lights with Bluefield, anyway.  You can judge his swing for yourself in this pre-draft video:

Update:   A few days after publishing this post, an alert reader pointed out the Bichette had been hospitalized for acute appendicitis.  Bichette had actually not been feeling well for several days in mid July, but was told by a doctor that what he had was viral, and would pass.  Bichette tried to soldier on for a few days, but could go no further, and went to the emergency ward.  There, doctors discovered that his appendix had in fact burst, but his body was slowly absorbing the toxins - Bichette joked that he performed surgery on himself.
   As someone who had his appendix rupture as it was being removed, I can only marvel at Bichette.  I have never been so sick in all my life.  

6 Blue Jays Prospects Headed to Arizona

Ryan McBrrom - Clutchlings photo

  The Arizona Fall League was established almost a quarter century ago to serve as a finishing school for team's top prospects.  With play centered at the spring training homes of several MLB teams in the Phoenix area, it's the ideal lab for scouts to evaluate prospects' play against top competition.  Sometimes teams send players there to learn a new position or role, make up for missed time, or to generally have a chance to play against elite competition.
   When Tommy John surgery shut him down for the last half of 2013 and the first half of the following season, Roberto Osuna had a chance to pitch in a relief role to get some added innings in Arizona in the fall of 2014.  The team saw enough to invite him to spring training the following year, where he impressed enough (even though he had never pitched above High A) to break camp with the team, and the rest is history.
   Six Blue Jays prospects and pitching coach Vince Horsman will make the trek southwest when play begins in October to suit up for the Mesa Solar Sox.  The league features six teams, and the schedule opens on October 11th, with the season wrapping up with the playoff final on November 19th.  The Fall Stars game on November 5th will be televised, but few other games likely will be.  Fortunately, there is a bevy of prospect evaluators live Tweeting the games, so there are sources of information.

   Here's a look at the invited Blue Jays
Conner Greene RHP
   The organization's top pitching prospect had his development intentionally slowed this season.  Despite finishing last year at AA (in his first year of full season ball), Greene began 2016 back at Dunedin, with a goal of improving his fastball command.  Experimenting with several arm angles, Greene's results in April and May would suggest that he was struggling, but it was more a product of coming up with an effective arm slot - as fans, we sometimes don't realize that minor league pitchers do not always approach a start with having a goal of producing a W for the team.  One Blue Jays prospect whose change up needs refining said that he is under orders to throw 10 of them in a game.  As a minor league pitcher, there are always things to work on.
  Greene began to blow Florida State League hitters away in early June, and was back in New Hampshire by July.  He tossed a couple of gems with the Fisher Cats, most noticeably six innings of no-hit ball in mid-August.  While he can dial his fastball up to the mid-90s, he's at his most effective when he works down in the zone, inducing weak contact.

Anthony Alford OF
   There's nothing wrong with a prospect facing adversity early in his career.  If he treats it as a learning experience, and keeps to the fundamentals and skills he's been taught by the organizations's instructors, he'll eventually break out of it.
  Such is the case for the Blue Jays top prospect entering the 2016 season, who scuffled through an injury-plagued first half of the year after a breakout 2015 campaign, his first since quitting football to focus solely on baseball.
  Alford was injured in a home plate collision on Dunedin's opening game, then missed time with a concussion suffered just a few weeks after his return in May.
   Consistency at the plate was elusive for Alford in the season's first half, and there was a lot of swing and miss to his game, as his K rate reached 30%.  Still, Alford works the count well, gets on base, and uses the whole field, and what has to be encouraging to the club is the 8 Home Runs and .459 slugging percentage he's posted in the second half, suggesting that the power is starting to show.
  Alford is in Arizona to get more reps, and to be challenged by the top level pitching he's going to face.  It's another stepping stone on his way to the big leagues.

Matt Dermody LHP
   Dermody was yet another tall, lean (6"5", 180) pitcher the Jays stockpiled during the Brian Parker/Alex Anthopoulos era.  I saw him start in Vancouver in 2013, weeks after he had been selected in the 28th round out of Iowa.
  Dermody was drafted out of high school (where he threw the first 6-inning, 18K perfect game in state history) by the Pirates in the 26th round, but opted to attend college in his home state.  The Rockies chose him in the 29th round in 2011, but he opted to stay in school.  The Diamondbacks took him in the 23rd round in 2012, and Dermody was on the verge of signing, until an MRI revealed a 40% UCL tear. Dermody went back to school and rehabbed his elbow, but had little signing leverage, and the Blue Jays, always big fans of projection, chose him late, and shipped him off the to GCL.
  My notes from his Vancouver outing showed that he sat 92 with his fastball, which had some life down in the zone, but he struggled with his secondaries.  He split time as a starter and reliever with Lansing the following season, and by 2015, he was a full time bullpen arm with Dunedin.  After giving up 98 hits in 77 FSL innings last year, there was little to suggest that he would be due for a breakout season a year later.
   Repeating Dunedin this year, he quickly rose to New Hampshire and then Buffalo, joining the Bisons solid bullpen corps.  His numbers this year tell a different story, as he posted a 1.82 ERA between the three levels over 54 innings.
   What has been responsible for Dermody's transformation?  The usual suspects - adding some deception to his delivery to make him tougher on lefthanded hitters, and improved command of his fastball and slider.

   Dermody's rise up the ladder was made complete by a promotion to Toronto when major league rosters expanded today.  He likely won't play a huge role in September, but gives the bullpen some much-needed southpaw depth.

Danny Jansen C
   The Blue Jays have stockpiled pitching since 2010.  They seem to be doing the same with catchers, which is not such a bad idea, given the uniqueness and demands of the position, and the length of time it takes to develop one.
  Jansen has moved steadily up the ladder, spending this year at Dunedin, but has missed parts of the last three seasons due to injury, and the team is likely anxious to speed up his development.  Early in his career, the highly-regarded 2013 16th rounder was drawing raves for his catching skills.  He is already an excellent pitch framer and blocker of balls in the dirt, and has been praised for his ability to handle a pitching staff.
   Jansen will never be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but the organization thinks enough of his skills to give him some added experience in Arizona.  Even with Max Pentecost and Reese McGuire ahead of him on the Blue Jays catching depth charts, there are many who have said that Jansen could play in the majors one day.

Tim Mayza LHP
    Minor league relievers don't tend to have a lot of value.  Their main job, it seems to an observer, is to protect the valuable young arms of the starting rotation from having to go beyond their pitch count, which usually leads to a fairly high attrition rate.
   Lefty bullpen arms can sometimes be a different matter, and Mayza is developing into one of them.  Armed with a fastball that can touch 95, and complemented by an improving slider, Mayza had a breakout season with Lansing last year, and sandwiched a promotion to AA between stints with Dunedin this year, fanning 63 in as many innings.
   Mayza has a "tall and fall" delivery, and with his back partially turned to home plate, can be tough on left handed hitters, and profiles as another southpaw specialist.  He struggled a bit with his command at AA, but the organization felt comfortable in challenging him with an assignment to the AFL.

Ryan McBroom 1B/DH
   Originally drafted by the Royals after his junior year at West Virginia, McBroom opted to go back to school, and the Blue Jays nabbed him in the 15th round in 2014.  And all he's done in his first three pro seasons is hit: .297/.339/.502 at Vancouver, .315/.387/.482 (and Midwest League MVP) at Lansing, and .279/.329/.477 mostly with Dunedin this year.
   McBroom is rarely mentioned in talk of the system's best prospects, however.  At 6'3"/230, he's pretty limited defensively, and while he's passed L.B. Dantzler as a prospect, his path upwards will likely always be blocked by Rowdy Tellez.  The team experimented with him in the outfield last year, and perhaps there will be a return to that in Arizona, but McBroom's future is entirely dependent on his bat.
  But what a bat it is - McBroom has topped 20 Home Runs in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and while he scuffled in a brief trial with New Hampshire this summer, it will be very interesting to see how he fares against tougher pitching in Arizona.  Success in the southwest may help him break through as a prospect.

Looking Ahead: Arizona Fall League and Australian League Projections

  Even though the MLB season is far from over, minor league play heads into its last week of the regular season today, and that means it's time to look ahead and see which Blue Jays prospects may further their baseball educations in either the Arizona Fall League, or the Australian Baseball League.

  The two leagues are vastly different, but both serve as a means of furthering players' development.  The AFL was founded in 1992 as a place for top prospects at the AA or AAA levels (teams are allowed two A ball players) could hone their skills against elite competition under conditions that are generally more favourable than most winter ball assignments.  This year, the Blue Jays will send a half dozen prospects to play for the Mesa Solar Sox - all teams are in the Phoenix area.  Dalton Pompey, Aaron Sanchez, Rowdy Tellez, Marcus Stroman, Andy Burns, and Dwight Smith Jr are among the more recent Blue Jays AFL alumni.
  The Aussie League has had a couple of incarnations, the most recent starting in 2010.  The Blue Jays have had a very successful partnership with the Canberra Cavalry, one of the more successful franchises in the league.  Pompey, Anthony Alford, and Jason Leblebijian have all spent time down under furthering their skills.  The ABL had its funding cut off by MLB this summer, so it faces a very uncertain future.  The schedule has been truncated (begins in mid-November, as opposed to late October, and finishes in late January), and this may be the last season the Blue Jays send prospects there.

  Choosing players for the two leagues can be a challenge.  Generally, the team wants to send players who have lost time to injury, work on a position/role change, or to give them a taste of that elite competition when selecting players to go to Arizona.  Alford certainly fits that bill, and so probably does IF Christian Lopes, who had fallen off the prospect radar, but has quietly put up a .294/.356/.404 line at New Hampshire, and has re-gained some of his former prospect lustre.  Derrick Loveless also turned his career around with New Hampshire this year, and might be a candidate.  Leblebijian likely would merit consideration, too, but after spending the season with Canberra last year has played a lot of baseball in the last 10 months.  Conner Greene certainly would benefit from the challenge, but if he does head southwest his innings will likely be extremely limited after pitching about 150 this year.  RHP Taylor Cole may be a good candidate - he lost time due to injury this year, and the team may want to think about harnessing his fastball by moving him to the bullpen. RHP John Stilson has also lost considerable time to injury over the course of the year, and it's possible a trip to Arizona could be in his plans for this fall.  Utility guy Emilio Guerrero more than held his own in AA this year, and might benefit from playing a variety of positions in Arizona this fall.  Dunedin C Danny Jansen has missed much playing time in each of his three minor league seasons so far, and may make up for lost time with Mesa.  Depending on his injury status, Sean Reid-Foley would have to be a decent bet to travel to Arizona, but he hasn't pitched since August 10th.

  The Aussie League experience is a different one than the Arizonan.  Many of the pitchers are veteran types, and as Alford discovered two years ago, they pitch you backward.  Living in a foreign country, far from home, is not for everyone, so the Blue Jays must carefully consider who they send.  Still, the experience is entirely beneficial, and the crash course in pitch recognition Alford took in Australia after giving up his football commitment was part of the reason for his breakout season in 2015.  Again, players who have missed time (but are not at AA) for one reason or another, or need to have their development accelerated are good candidates to make the long trip. We've just learned that reliever Andrew Case, who was suspended 50 games in the off season for missing a drug test.  The New Brunswick native returned to play with Lansing in early July, and has saved 8 games in 9 opportunities.  IF Dickie Joe Thon Jr, a highly regarded 2010 5th rounder, has really not shown much until this year, and his development might be furthered with time in Australia.  Lansing OF Lane Thomas missed some time this year, and could be headed down under.  Dunedin OF J.D. Davis has had a really solid season after missing time in past years, and could be under consideration as well.  If Jansen is not headed to Arizona, Australia might be a good situation for him.  As far as pitchers go, the team prefers to send relievers, so a bullpen arm or two more from Dunedin or Lansing may be making the trip.  As an added bonus, ABL games are televised, and while the broadcast quality varies, it's easy to check up on these prospects on the ABL channel on YouTube.

  What we don't know's banged up, who needs to work on some things, and who is playing winter ball, so sometimes putting these lists together is just a matter of speculation.  For the prospects who aren't under consideration for travel to Arizona or Australia, the Florida Instructional League begins in late September.
Even though the season is winding down, there's still plenty of baseball ahead for many Blue Jays prospects.

A Look at Conner Greene

milb.com photo

   Blue Jays Right-Handed Pitcher Conner Greene soared through three levels of the minor leagues last year and pitched well enough in spring training in a few outings with the big club in spring training that some fans were clamouring for him to head north with the team (or at least, AAA Buffalo), and the Toronto media had already taken notice of the Californian with the movie-star looks and IMDB resume. 

  Greene cracked Baseball America's Top 100 prospects after his dazzling season, and Fangraphs ranked him as the Blue Jays 2nd prospect:

His stuff still needs tightening up, but his command and exceptional changeup give him the weapons to breeze through most minor-league lineups in the meantime.

Having added weight to his athletic frame in recent years, Greene now sits in the low- to mid-90s with good command of his fastball. He can spot it down in the zone with good movement or run it across the letters with “rise” on his four-seam. He throws a changeup that will play at least above-average because of arm speed and command, though it probably won’t be a swing-and-miss offering. 

There is still some physical projection left in his frame, lending hope for another tick or two of sustained velocity on his fastball. His curveball has plus potential if he learns to throw it with the same conviction as his changeup and fastball, perhaps also helped by expected strength gains. He’s athletic on the mound with clean actions. 

  Many were shocked when Greene, after reaching AA in August last year in his first year of full season ball, was sent back to Dunedin to begin the season.

   Greene's assignment was not surprising to others, though, given that he didn't turn 21 until Opening Day, and was just three years removed from high school.  His rapid rise in the system was at least as attributable to the flurry of deadline deals then-GM Alex Anthopoulos made, and the former regime's preference to challenge young pitchers with aggressive assignments as much as it was to Greene's own performance which, while impressive, showed some areas that he needed to work on.

  Fastball command was perhaps the biggest reason why Greene had advanced so quickly last year, but his time at AA (12BB in 25IP) showed that there was still room for improvement.  While elite hitters can get around on just about any fastball (if you've never heard the story about Julio Franco and the cranked-up batting machine, do yourself a favour and read it here), the ability to throw the fastball where he wants it remains the heart of a pitcher's tool kit.  Jason Parks, now a scout with the Cubs, wrote about the importance of it for Baseball Prospectus:

Radar gun readings can be sexy, but if velocity isn't accompanied by command and movement, velocity is exploitable by hitters at the highest levels of the game.  While it certainly affords pitchers more room for error, it is only one variable to the overall fastball equation, and very rarely is it strong enough to survive on its own.  Straight fastballs often find barrels, and hard contact isn't a desired result of any at bat......fastball command is the perfect building block for the rest of the arsenal.  It creates the opportunity for a more effective secondary arsenal before (it) is even deployed.

   Greene, with a fastball that touched 97 last year, and sat 92-94, had plenty of movement on his pitches, but still had not mastered control of them.  The incoming Blue Jays upper management team felt that High A was a better place for Greene to refine this.  And while we're here, here's something about promoting young players that few fans are aware of:  in most organizations,  prospects are only moved to the next level when there is unanimous consent among all the relevant player development staff that he's ready for it.  That means not only front office people, but also the player's current minor league manager and coaches, as well as minor league instructional staff, have to sign off on it.  This may explain as well why Greene remained in Florida to start the season - there was at least one (if not more) staffer who felt he wasn't ready for a return to New Hampshire.


  Held to an 80-pitch limit for the first month of 2016,  Greene seemed to have harnessed that fastball, until a disastrous May 10th outing in which he gave up 10 hits and 6 walks in 5.2 innings.  He continued to struggle with walks for the rest of the month, then began to turn things around in June.  His June 21st start in which he gave up no runs, three hits, and only a pair of walks over 7 innings while striking out as many likely convinced the organization that he was ready, and after his next Dunedin start he was on his way to Binghamton, where he made his 2016 AA debut for the Fisher Cats.
   While likely not thrilled with repeating Dunedin, Greene was not fazed by it, telling Alex Hall of the Manchester Union-Leader, ""Last year, I had a good year and I relied almost strictly off (my talent) . This is a big learning year. I'm not too worried about the statistics of it because I'm gaining so much information right now and I'm applying things and just taking away and going about my plan."
   Greene was re-united at New Hampshire with veteran Catcher Ryan Lavarnway, picked up by the club in late May.  Lavarnway, like Greene a Burbank, CA native, had played with Greene's older brother in high school, and had known Greene since he was 8.  He was likely brought on board to mentor young pitchers like Greene, Shane Dawson, and Jeremy Gabryzswski.
 
  Greene's most recent outing was on July 15th against the Red Sox' Portland affiliate.  The Sea Dogs may occupy the Eastern League's Eastern Division basement, 7 games back of the Fisher Cats, but they boast two to the Top 10 prospects in the game:  Futures Game MVP Yoan Moncada (#1), and 2015 draftee Andrew Benintendi (#9).  This was to be Greene's second start in a row against Portland, who roughed him up to the tune of 5 earned runs and 7 hits over 4.1 innings eight days before.

   Greene wanted no part of leadoff hitter Moncada, walking him on 5 pitches.  He gave up a single to the next hitter, and appeared to be having some issues with the mound at that point, prompting the first of what turned out to be a half dozen visits from Lavarnway over the course to the game to get him back on track. He retired the next three hitters, but gave up a one-out sac fly, allowing Moncada to cross the plate with the first run of the game.  Greene needed 23 pitches to get through the inning.
  In the second, he seemed to become more comfortable on the mound, hitting 95 with his fastball.  After giving up a leadoff single, Greene settled down, and after Lavarnway gunned out that runner trying to steal 2nd, he appeared to be out of the inning when 3B Emilio Guerrero threw a short-armed sinker that 1B Rowdy Tellez was unable to scoop out of the dirt.  Greene painted the outside corner with a 94 mph fasball to a right-handed hitter to retire the side.
  Greene was at his most economical in the 3rd, needing only 8 pitches to retire the side.  Moncada hit a second-pitch shot that was looking like a triple to the left-centrefield gap that CF Roemon Fields made a twisting, desperation grab of. The final out came on a nifty diving play by Tellez, who robbed Benintendi of extra bases with a grab of a shot down the line, throwing to a covering Greene just in time.
  Trouble reared its head in the 4th, when Greene gave up a screaming single to leadoff hitter Nate Fryman off the "Maine Monster" in left on his first pitch.  One out later, a walk and another single had loaded the bases for Portland, when Guerrero started a nifty 5-4-3 double play to end the threat.
   Greene needed only 8 pitches to retire the side in the 5th, getting the second out by catching the left-handed hitting Moncada looking on a fastball on the outside corner.  Greene started using that pitch more to lefties in that inning, starting it inside under the hands, and having it cut in on the inside corner at the last minute. When he commanded it, it was a very effective pitch.
   The sixth proved to be his final frame.  He didn't help his cause by dropping the throw from 2B Christian Lopes while covering the bat at 1st against the leadoff hitter. A tiring Greene loaded the bases once again, but gave up a two-run, two-out single before recording the final out on a flyball to right.

   For the game, Greene threw 91 pitches, 56 for strikes.  He gave up 3 runs, only 1 earned, and 6 hits.  Greene walked 3 and struck out 3.  He had trouble staying ahead of hitters for much of the game, throwing first-pitch strikes to 15 of hit 26 hitters.  He recorded 8 outs by groundballs, 5 by flyballs. By a rough count, he thew about a dozen pitches in the dirt, all deftly fielded by Lavarnway - this may have been an attempt to generate swings and misses on pitches out of the zone, or it may have been a result of losing the bottom of the strike zone.   This was not a dominant outing by Greene - he gave up some hard contact, and struggled to find the strike zone at times.  Just the same, he breezed through a couple of innings, offering a good foundation to build upon.
   Much has been made of Greene's slender frame.  When he was drafted, he was all of 165 lbs.  That's not the profile of an innings eater, but he's bulked up considerably since then to about 180, from what a visitor to spring training who chatted with him briefly in spring training observed.  Still, as a long, lean, and athletic pitcher, he checks all the boxes in what the Blue Jays like in a starter.  Having just turned 21, there's still some projection remaining, and no need to rush him.