Clutchlings Minor League Award Winners

Rich Miller - Vancouver Province photo

     The Blue Jays farm system ended the season on a positive note.  As President Mark Shapiro had noted in late August, much of the depth in the organization is still working its way up the ladder, and as if to reinforce that point, 4 of the team's 5 short season clubs made their respective league's post seasons, while three of the four full season teams fell short of .500.

    In the minors, development supersedes winning. Teams do like their top prospects to move up and learn to win together, so making the playoffs is viewed as a positive thing.  It can be also be a chance for tired players to injure themselves.  The Blue Jays executives I have spoken to over the years don't necessarily see the minor league post season as a bad thing, but their lack of enthusiasm in noticeable.

    At the bottom of the ladder, the Dominican Summer League's DSL Blue Jays won their division, only to be beaten in the first round by the Dodgers.  Top IFAs from 2016 like Hugo Cardona, Naswell Paulino, Elixon Caballero, and Kenny Mauricio played for the club, which was piloted by veteran Blue Jays minor league Manager John Tamargo.
     One of the realities of minor league ball is that many of the players plying their trade for an organization are roster fillers.  Teams will tell you that they believe that every player they sign has a chance, and while I think the Blue Jays sincerely believe that, the truth is that since only a handful of minor leaguers even get a cup of coffee in the bigs, roster turnover is a fairly frequent thing.  Case in point: DSL Jays OF Andres Martinez, a late 2016 signing who was the club's best hitter, and our pick for Player of the Year.  Martinez was among the team leaders in Average and OBP, but at 19 (he just turned 20), he was a little old for this level.  IF Rafael Lantigua had comparable numbers, and a higher Slugging %, thanks to 6 Triples.  He was also 11-23 in Stolen Bases, negating much of the value he created by getting on base.  Martinez provided little pop (only 7 extra base hits, all Doubles), and that plus his age probably made the Jays feel he wasn't a candidate to move stateside next year.
   The DSL Jays Pitcher of the Year race was a tight one.  LHP Paulino, a converted OF who can dial it up to 96, fanned 52 in 55 innings, and had a couple of outings where he was all but unhittable. Caballero, a Marcus Stroman-sized righty with an advanced feel for pitching, worked mostly out of the bullpen, striking out 36 in 32 frames.  But the award goes to Righty Nathanael Perez, who K'd 55 and walked only 7 in 57 IP.  Paulino and Caballero are only 17, while Perez is 19.  All 3 will start in the GCL next year.  The former two may move fast at some point.

   The next rung on the ladder would be the Gulf Coast Jays, who were tied with the Phillies entry for first in their division with 10 games left in the schedule.  The GCL Jays stumbled to a 4-6 finish, ending up two games behind the Phils and out of the playoffs.
   The GCL is where high schoolers and lower round college players from the June draft begin their careers.  Rehabbing minor leaguers from upper levels also return to action via the GCL.  CF Dominic Abbadessa, a 2016 23rd rounder whose debut season was limited to 15 games, was the team's top player (.340/.402/.408), and our Player of the Year.
   The GCL Jays Pitcher of the Year choice was fairly obvious.  Even on a fairly deep pitching staff, Maverik Buffo stood out.  A 34th round choice out of BYU, Buffo's elbow issues of last year likely caused teams to pass on him, and even the Blue Jays seemed reluctant to let him leave the confines on the minor league complex, where the team's medical staff is located.  Buffo dominated GCL hitters, allowing only 28 hits and all of 2 walks in 34 innings, striking out 36.  His performance earned him a selection to the All Rookie-Level team by Baseball America.  The wraps should come off Buffo next year, and he should be headed to full season ball.

   Another BA All-Rookie Choice, 1B Ryan Noda, gets the nod as Bluefield's Player of the Year. Noda was an Advanced Triple Crown winner - Average, OBP, Slugging - in the Appy League.  The 15th round pick from Cincinnati flirted with .400 for much of the summer, before finally finishing with a line of .364/.507/.575.  Described by a source who saw him with Bluefield as, "very patient, bordering on passive," at the plate, he will see more advanced pitching in full season ball next year.
   Southpaw Randy Pondler is our Pitcher of the Year for Bluefield.  The Nicaraguan formed an effective 1-2 punch with 18 year old Venezuelan Maximo Castillo, and both (along with Buffo and several Vancouver arms) should lead an upgraded pitching staff at Lansing next year.  Pondler is a long and lean lefty with a live arm who throws low 90's heat, and his best secondary is an 11/5 curve that flashed solid depth and bite,  according to reports.
   Appy League voters obviously felt the same way about the pair;  Noda was named Player of the Year, while Pondler took hom Pitcher honours.

   Vancouver returned to the Northwest League finals for the first time since 2014, and didn't disappoint, defeating the Cubs' Eugene affliate 3-1, and capturing their 4th NWL crown in 7 years as a Blue Jays farm club.  SS Logan Warmoth (1st), and C Riley Adams (3rd) were two June picks who stood out in leading the C's to victory.  There was not a lot to choose between the two offensively, but Adams played 52 games at a demanding position, and helped guide a pitching staff that got better as the season progressed, and takes the award as a result.
   The C's Pitcher of the Year was an easy selection:  RHP Nate Pearson, the team's 2nd first round pick (28th overall).  Pearson tired a little at the end of the season, but he consistently sat 96-98 with his fastball, hitting 100 a number of times, and NWL hitters were no match for his heat.  Through his first five innings-limited starts with the C's, Pearson did not allow a runner past 2nd.  In the playoffs, he dialed his fastball up, fanning 10 in 4 innings vs Spokane in the division final.

    SS Bo Bichette and 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr entered the 2017 season as teenagers with considerable promise. They ended it as two of the top prospects in the game.  Bichette was above .400 as late as June 28th, and finished his time in the Midwest League a week later with a .384/.448/.623 line before joining Guerrero in a promotion to Dunedin.  Vladdy Jr may be garnering more prospect acclaim, but there is everything to suggest that Bichette profiles as an impact MLB bat as well, with above average base running skills and Baseball IQ to go with it.  The numbers he posted in Lansing earned him league MVP honours, as well as our POY.
    Lansing's Pitching staff caused some long nights for its fans, finishing at the bottom of the MWL in most stats.  There was promise at the beginning of the season, with Justin Maese and Patrick Murphy fronting the starting rotation, and Zach Jackson and Jackson McClelland anchoring the back of the bullpen.  With the former pair injured for a good chunk of the season, and the latter two promoted to Dunedin, the Lugnuts allowed a considerable number (1.56 WHIP) of base runners. Maese missed all of June and half of July before returning from a shoulder fatigue shutdown. Murphy missed a similar amount of time, but was much more effective than his rotation partner upon his return, earning a late-season promotion to the D-Jays.  His tidy 2.94 ERA over 15 starts,  48.7% groundball rate, and 35.5% opposite field rate speak to a lot of weak contact.  And that earns the Arizonan, who returned last year after missing almost two years due to injury, our Pitcher of the Year nomination for Lansing.

   In the shadow of some more illustrious teammates at Dunedin like the Lansing Bash Twins and Max Pentecost, was Toronto native Connor Panas.  The 1B/DH/OF started slowly, but was one of the Florida State League's most dangerous hitters in the second half.  Panas led the FSL in Home Runs and Fly Ball%, no mean feat in a well-known Pitcher's league, and earns the Player of the Year title.
   Dunedin's opening day rotation was one of the best 1-4 in the minors.  Ryan Borucki, Angel Perdomo, TJ Zeuch, and Markham's Jordan Romano formed a rotation that promised to lead the D-Jays to the post-season.  And while Zeuch and Perdomo missed most of the second half of the season, and Borucki was promoted to AA in August, Dunedin did indeed make it to the playoffs, and captured league co-champion honours in an Irma-shortened playoff format.  Last man standing Romano was a large part of that.  His 138 K's in as many innings were second-best (behind Borucki) in the system. His 10.1% swinging strike rate indicates that he missed a lot of bats.  Romano did not miss a start this season, and with Panas forms an all Greater Toronto Area Player and Pitcher of the Year combo for Dunedin.

   It was a long season for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats.  In a sign of things to come, their first two games were postponed due to the wet Northeastern spring, and after losing 4 of their first 5, the weather continued to play havoc with the Fisher Cats' schedule.  They finished 21 games under 500, losing 14 in a row to the Yankees Trenton affiliate over several series.
    The shining light of the New Hampshire season had to be the play of OF Anthony Alford, who regained his top prospect status after a sideways 2016.  Called up to the big club, he broke his hamate bone, forcing another long stay on the DL.  When Alford came back, he was sent to New Hampshire until the final weekend of the season.  His final line of .310/.406/.429 for the Cats more than proved he will be in contention for a big league job next spring.
   New Hampshire's Pitcher of the Year was a difficult selection.  At the season's outset, the Fisher Cats had three top prospects fronting their rotation in Sean Reid-Foley, Conner Greene, and Jon Harris.  All three had their struggles, even with Greene hitting 100 numerous times this season.  New Hampshire's bullpen likely kept their season from being a complete write off, and it's from the pen that we bring up Chris Rowley.  The RHP spent all of last year pitching in relief for Dunedin after receiving an exemption from his military commitment, but was pressed into starting duty this year when fatigue and inconsistency hit the rotation.  Rowley did not miss a beat, and used his success in a starting role into an eventual start for the Blue Jays.  Although he threw only 52 innings before being promoted to Buffalo, Rowley allowed only 33 hits and 9 walks, pounding the bottom half of the strike zone.  Rowley is our New Hampshire Pitcher of the Year.

   AAA rosters have become more like temporary holding pens full of major league insurance. Rosters at this level are often in flux, depending on the state of affairs with the big league club. 69 players suited up for the Buffalo Bisons this year, 37 of them pitchers.
   On the player side, one would have thought entering this season that 1B Rowdy Tellez would be a safe bet to be the team's MVP.  Tellez suffered through the worst season of his pro career in 2017, held to a .222/.295/.333 line, with only 6 Home Runs.  OF Roemon Fields was a revelation in his fourth pro season, however, setting career highs en route to a .291/.355/.352 season.  Fields is all about putting the ball in play and getting on base, which he did at a decent rate this season.  His career-best 21.8% line drive rate also suggests that he's making better and more consistent contact. On the bases, he swiped 43 while being caught 12 times (a 78% success rate).  His defence is without question, and he was a fixture in CF and at the bottom of the lineup.  Fields is a fringe major leaguer at this point, with 4th OF potential, but he raised his offensive game this year.
   Buffalo's Pitcher of the Year was a difficult choice.  TJ House, Brett Oberholtzer, and Jarret Grube all logged about 130 innings as starters, but their numbers were fairly mediocre.  Murphy Smith gave the team a lot of valuable 7th and 8th innings, and made 8 starts when the rotation was thin.  That versatility was important for Buffalo, and gives him the nod.

     Since the most successful players in any organization tend to be the ones who play at several levels, they don't necessarily get to stick around to post huge numbers at any one stop.  In recognition of this, it's worth choosing an over all Player and Pitcher of the Year for the Blue Jays organization.
 
   For Player of the Year, two players share the award.  C Danny Jansen was healthy for the first time since his debut in 2013, and the results were very impressive.  Jansen started wearing sport glasses last fall in the Arizona Fall League in order to help him pick up the spin on his Pitcher's pitches better, with an added bonus that it helped him tremendously with pitch recognition at the plate. Jansen started the season at Dunedin and ended it at Buffalo, with the Blue Jays wisely opting to shut him down at the end of the season rather then place him on the 40-man and promoting him on September 1st.  His .323/.400/.484 line for the season was one of the best in recent memory for a Blue Jays minor league Catcher, in addition to his prodigious receiving and Pitcher-handling skills.
 
    Vladdy Jr more than held his own as an 18 year old at Lansing.  While other players his age were preparing for the draft or college last spring, Guerrero was adding to his growing reputation in full season ball.  He put together a line of .316/.409/.480 and played solid if not spectacular defence before being promoted to Dunedin.  Against more advanced Florida State League Pitching, Guerrero built on those stats, hitting .323/.25/.485, earning Player of the Month laurels.  Vladdy Jr now has to be considered the top prospect in the game.
 
    Borucki's performance at three levels this year earns him the Pitcher of the Year award.  After fanning 109 in 98 innings for Dunedin, the possessor of the best Change Up in the organization tossed 7 shutout innings in his Eastern League debut.  His August work for New Hampshire (limiting hitters to a .187 BA) earned him a promotion to Buffalo for his final start of the season, where he tossed another six scoreless frames.  Borucki's 157 Ks led the system and he was among the FSL leaders in Swinging Strike% and GB rate.  The tall southpaw, who is one of the grittiest players in the system after losing two seasons to injury since being drafted in 2012, is on the verge of competing for a Major League job next spring.

    If there was a Manager of the Year award, Vancouver's Rich Miller would be a cinch to win it.  After taking over from John Schneider in 2011 part way through the season to lead the C's to an NWL title, the baseball lifer (Miller has been in the game for 44 years as a player, instructor, scout, and Manager - John Gibbons played for him) had served as a consultant to the Blue Jays for the past several years.  Miller returned to helm the C's this year, and led them back to the league championship.  Managing a short season team is a unique challenge.  Skippers have to blend players who have been at Extended, chomping at the bit for three months for an opportunity to play real games, and recent draftees who have had a whirlwind experience after their collegiate seasons (there was a shorter than usual gap between the MLB draft and the start of the NWL season this year).  Throw in playing in a new country, often far from home, and Miller had a huge challenge in harmonizing his roster and coming up with a winner, coaxing the best from his players, many of whom had never experienced large doses of failure in the game before experiencing it in the Pacific Northwest.  One can only imagine the amount of patience it took.  So now maybe we have a MOY award as well.  Northwest League voters agreed with this choice in naming Miller the league's Manager of the Year.

   ****************************************************************************
   "You're hired to be fired," is another baseball truism.  Baseball is above all else a business.  Clubs make personnel and roster moves that are in what they believe are the long term best interests of the organization.  I was stunned to learn from Miller yesterday that he had been let go by the Blue Jays after bringing a title back to the Lower Mainland.  To his credit, he was still willing to grant the interview request I had made despite this.  I suspect he will be philosophical about his departure, and I'll reserve judgement about it until I speak with him.  He's a good baseball man, and if he chooses to stay in the game I have no doubt he'll find another job quickly.

A Look at What's In the System

Tim Mayza - Clutchlings Photo

   With the Toronto Blue Jays struggling to score runs,  and a recent Statscast release demonstrating that in terms of baserunning speed, they have one of the slowest lineups in baseball,  thoughts of many fans are turning into what volume of selling the club will be doing at the trade deadline.
    It's hard to predict either way what the team will do at the end of this month.  A decent winning streak could put them right back into the thick of things.  But with Troy Tulowitzki struggling, Kevin Pillar reverting to career norms, and minus the spark that Devon Travis provided, it's hard to see this team playing meaningful September baseball.  The question for Blue Jays management is whether or not a quick fix, in the form of trades to shore up weak spots in the lineup is the answer, or if a complete tear-down is more in order.
   Before a team decides to blow it up and start from scratch, they have to take stock of their minor league systems.  Are there players who are close enough that their development as every day major leaguers won't be impaired by rushing them?  Are there enough players at key positions?  Will rebuilding be a long, painful, and attendance-costing process, or is there enough talent at the upper levels of the system to keep the team competitive?


   Here's a look, position-by-position, at what's in the system, and how close those players might be.

Catcher
   This is possibly the deepest position in the system - quite a turnaround from even a year ago.
Danny Jansen has gone fron oft-injured to AA All Star in the course of a year.  Reese McGuire underwent surgery for a torn meniscus in May and is out until at least August, and was replaced by Jansen.  Max Pentecost returned to Catching duties this year after two  Going deeper into the system, recent draftees Riley Adams and Hagen Danner show tremendous promise.
   Jansen and McGuire (that's the order I see them in - Jansen should become the everyday receiver, with McGuire a more than competent back up who can allow the Blue Jays to keep Jansen's bat in the lineup once in a while as a DH) are both at least a year away, while the newbies in the system are several.
   With Russ Martin under contract for two more years, and Miguel Montero just picked up from the Cubs, this position does not seem to be a priority for the Jays to re-tool.  With 3 decent prospects in full season ball, and a pair in short season, this is a position of strength for the organzation, and if the club was looking to upgrade the major league roster, this might be an area to deal from.

Corner Infielders
   This was the year that Rowdy Tellez was going to challenge Justin Smoak for a job by mid-season.
   So much for that.
    Tellez faced on and off-field struggles this half   His bat has started to show signs of life, but he's hovered around the Mendoza Line for much of the season to date.  Tellez was one of the youngest players in AA last year, and at 22, he's one of the youngest again at AAA.  There's not much to be gained by rushing him at this point.
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr may be on his way to best-prospect-in-baseball status, but he's still only 18, and several years away.
   There isn't much else at these positions.

Middle Infielders
    There is truly a glut of players in the system who can play 2nd and SS.   The most promising, of course, is Guerrero's bashing Lansing brother Bo Bichette, who is still a few years away as well.
  Richard Ureña was one of the youngest players in AA at the start of the season.  After settling many questions about his bat the past two years, he's struggled at the plate this year.  There is no doubt about his defensive skills.  He is the eventual successor to Troy Tulowitzki, but he likely is destined to be a bottom third of the order hitter.
    Jason Leblebijian has had the most successful season of any Blue Jays middle infielder.  Once viewed as an org guy, he went to Australia a couple of seasons ago, mashed his way to an MVP award, and seemingly hasn't stopped hitting.  At 26, his prospect status is starting to wane, however, and he can't really be viewed as a long-term answer.
    Top draft pick Logan Warmoth made his pro debut in the GCL, and now is a fixture in Vancouver's lineup.  He may even make it to Lansing by the end of the summer. He's not likely to make his MLB debut this decade, though.
   Lourdes Gurriel is something of a wild card here.  He could profile as a SS, 2B, or a LF.  After not playing for almost two years following his defection from Cuba, the Blue Jays expected some rust, but injuries have slowed his development this year.  A recent series against Bradenton showed some issues with bat speed and timing, but that apepars to be coming around now that he's healthy and in the lineup of AA New Hampshire every day.

Outfielders
   Blue Jays fans got a glimpse of the future when toolsy Anthony Alford made his MLB debut this year.  It was a brief one, of course, but if his recovery from wrist surgery goes well, (he's been back for about a week), there's every chance we see him in a Blue Jays uniform this summer.
   And the stock of good players at this position who are close begins and ends with Alford.  Roemon Fields has put together a surprising .298/.348/.385 line at Buffalo, but has struggled throughout much of his full-season minor league career to get on base enough to take advantage of his speed.  Dwight Smith Jr likewise has put up decent numbers at AAA, and even hit well in a brief audition with the big club, but he and Fields really should be considered to be no more than fourth outfielders at best.
   Edward Olivares has opened at lot of eyes at Lansing this year, but has to prove that he can maintain that kind of contact at the higher levels.  An aside: watching Olivares take BP earlier this year, it was kind of mystifying to watch him drive so many pitches into the top of the cage in an obvious attempt to put some loft on the ball.  Given his build and speed, an observer might have been tempted to think that a line drive, on-base approach might be better.  During the game that followed, Olivares lofted a HR over the wall in Left-Centre, a noteworthy blast in April at Cooley Law School Stadium.  He is a five-tool player (leads all Midwest League OFs in Assists) and a premium athlete who is still several years away.
2016 2nd rounder J.B. Woodman has swung and missed at a lot of pitches so far this year in the Midwest League.
  Dalton Pompey continues to try to stay healthy and see his name on the lineup card every day.
  This is not a positon of depth in the system, however.

Starting Pitchers
   Sean Reid-Foley would have been considered the top starting prospect in the system this year.  In his first try at AA, he's been too fine with his pitches, and has had his ups and downs, athough his most recent outing was a gem.  He's also only 21, and obviously needs more time.
    The same could be said of Conner Greene, who's walking hitters at a career-high rate (5.5/9) as SRF's rotation-mate.  Greene has shown flashes of brilliance, but has yet to put a solid stretch together - he walked 8 and fanned only 2 over only 4 innings in his last start.
   TJ Zeuch, the club's 1st round pick last year, showed promise in High A, but struggled to stay healthy as many pitchers do in his first full season, and is on the DL.  He's resumed baseball activities since being shut down a month ago, but there is not date for his return.
   Ryan Borucki was added to the 40-man last August, but his lengthy injury history prompted the team to shut him down briefly early in the season, and he was on a pitch-count limit until June.  Teammate and GTA product Jordan Romano has probably been the best starter in the Blue Jays system this year, although he may profile more as an MLB reliever. Both have to be considered two-three years away.
   Justin Maese reached Lansing in only his second pro season (quite a feat for a high school P) last August, but he too has been shut down with shoulder issues.  He returned to action in a GCL rehab stint this week, but the club is likely understandably reluctant to rush things.  Both Maese and Zeuch are several years away.
   Southpaw Angel Perdomo has been brought slowly through the system, and has pitched well at High A this year.  Most scouts are of the belief that his lights-out fastball will play better in a bullpen one day, but the Blue Jays are content for now to allow him to continue to develop as a starter.
   2015 1st rounder Jon Harris has had his struggles at AA this year, but seems to be turning things around.
   Yennsy Diaz has dazzled Midwest League hitters with his electric fastball since making his full season debut last month.  If his secondaries continue to develop, he will be an arm worth watching.

Relief Pitchers
   If there is one area that has consistently been one of the deepest pools of talent in the system.
Which is a good thing, considering the short shelf life of the modern day MLB reliever.
   Chris Rowley has rocketed through the system after being released from his military commitment last February.  He does not blow hitters away, but uses a combination of location and movement to keep hitters off balance.  He pitched in relief last year and for the first two months of this year, but injuries in New Hampshire's rotation forced him into a starting role.  He has been lights out in either capacity, earning a promotion to Buffalo.  The Blue Jays would have preferred to keep him in relief, according to a team official, but he's proven valuable in the swing man role.  He's knocking on the door of a major league job.
   Southpaw Matt Dermody has made tremendous strides since being switched to full-time bullpen duties two years ago, and even made a few appearances with the big club last fall.  He was hit hard in his only MLB outing this year, and has given up some contact with Buffalo, but is still striking out a batter per inning.  Fellow lefty Tim Mayza turned some heads in spring training, and after dazzling with an electric fastball that hits 97.  RHP John Stilson and his 96 mph fastball have been knocking on the major league door for some time, but injuries seem to keep getting in the way.
  At AA, Dusty Isaacs and New Brunswick's Andrew Case (recetnly promoted to Buffalo) haven't had a lot of opportunities to close the door on opponents for the last-place Fisher Cats, but have been very effective in late inning situations.  And while we usually don't go below that level to look for potential bullpen arms, Kirby Snead, Zach Jackson and Jackson McClelland have put together impressive seasons first at Lansing and now Dunedin.
   This is another position of strength for the organization in terms of depth.

Zach Jackson - Clutchlings photo

    In short, this is a system with a growing stockpile of talent, but there is little of it that's ready to step into an everyday role with the big league club.  Alford is the most obvious candidate, but the struggles of Tellez, Reid-Foley, and Greene indicate that they're still at least a year away.  Bichette and Guerrero are clearly the jewels of the system, but 2019 would have to be the earliest we would see them, and that date is probably a bit on the optimistic side.
    There is some trade depth if the Blue Jays were looking to upgrade the major league roster.  If Pentecost does not pan out behind the plate, his athleticism would be a fit for many teams.  Olivares offers a toolkit that might be very tempting.  And despite not being able to offer more than a $300K bonus to any of their international signings last year in the hangover that was the 2015 Vladdy Jr signing, there are some intriguing arms in that group.
    It's hard to say which way the Blue Jays management group is leaning, but if past performance is any indication, this is an administration which prefers to build from within, using young controllable players.  We're not apt to see the likes of Alex Anthopoulos' dealing two years ago (he traded 18 prospects in the span of eight months).   Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro is well aware of the risks of doing a full-on tear down, and is not likely to make a wholesale overhaul of the major league roster. The deals that he and GM Ross Atkins would make, if any, would probably involve the return of upper-level prospects for players on the 25-man with soon to be expiring contracts.  With a stable of prospects reaching the middle levels of the system this year, and a likely Top 10 draft pick next year barring a remarkable second half turnaround, it seems more likely that the Blue Jays will not be holding a fire sale later this month, but may look to move one or two contracts, with an eye to the club becoming more competitive in the next two years.

 

 
 
 

Mid-Season Prospect Update with Gil Kim

Clutchlings photo

   Blue Jays Director of Player Development Gil Kim is a busy, busy man.
Between overseeing players and staff among the Blue Jays 8 minor league affiliates, co-ordinating with the High Performance division, and meeting recently drafted players at the Bobby Mattick Minor League complex in Dunedin at a four-day mini-camp, he can be a hard man to pin down.

   Kim did agree to take some time out to discuss the progress of several prospects throughout the system.


Injury Update
   The Blue Jays opt to err on the side of caution with their younger prospects, particularly those who are relatively new to full season ball.  As a result, placing players on the DL and sending them to Dunedin for rest and rehab is a common precautionary practice.  That seems to be the case with Max Pentecost, who hasn't played since June 9th.  Slowed by a back strain in his return to full-time Catching duty after Danny Jansen was promoted to New Hampshire to replace the injured Reese McGuire, the Jays opted to shut the 2014 1st round draft choice down for a few weeks.  According to Kim, all indications are that he's doing well in rehab, and should be back in action shortly.
  Speaking of McGuire, who underwent arthroscopic surgery for a torn meniscus in late May, Kim reports that he is rehabbing well, but there is no timetable for his return, although it's expected to be before the end of the season.
   2016 1st rounder T.J. Zeuch has been on the DL since the beginning of June.  Kim wouldn't disclose what the injury was (it has to be shoulder related), but Zeuch is on a throwing program and is expected back soon.
   Lansing starting pitching stalwarts Justin Maese and Patrick Murphy have both been shut down. Maese has been rehabbing a sore shoulder, and hasn't started in a month.  A hamstring slowed Murphy down, and he hasn't pitched in three weeks.  Kim says both are on the mend, and should return to action shortly.
   Anthony Alford, as has been well documented, had surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in his wrist.  He too is doing well in Dunedin, and is expected back for the second half of the season, but there is no timetable yet.

Bo and Vladdy Jr
   As fans, we check out the MiLB box scores every morning to see how our favourite prospects fared. Each promotion up the ladder brings them one step closer to the Major Leagues, where we can see them live and in person.  If there's one question I've been asked most often lateley, it has to be, "when are Bo and/or Vladdy Jr getting promoted?"
   It's understandable that we want to catch a glimpse of players who for the most part have been only names on a webpage.  It's just as understandable that MLB teams want to stick to the plan for their top prospects.
  Kim was non-commital about when (or if) the two Lansing sluggers will get promoted.  All minor league prospects have a skill set that they're working on, and it's no big secret that the High Performance department has been working on agility and strength on the defensive side of the ball with both prospects.  Bichette, in particular, has been working on first-step quickness, working with Lansing Manager Cesar Martin and Hitting Coach Donnie Murphy on fielding countless groundballs.  Guerrero, for his part, is working on his defensive game, too, trying to become quicker at fielding slow rollers, and improving his overall range at 3rd. Both are learning how to play every day, to prepare for games, and how to recover from them afterwards.  As much as we want this to be a fast process, sometimes it isn't.  Both players are very age-appropriate for Low A ball, and Kim's philosophy could be summed up as, "why rush things?"
   Certainly, both have laid waste to Midwest League pitching.  After hitting the .400 mark a week ago, Bichette is hitting .394/.457/.627, and leads the league in several offensive categories.  He's hit in 51 of the 59 games he's played in, and has gone hitless in consecutive games only once.  Guerrero's numbers (.313/.406/.457) are not as gaudy, but no less impressive.  He's hit only .158 over his last 10, perhaps showing some signs of fatigue.
     The most likely path for Bichette is to spend at least the next few weeks with Lansing.  He has a decent chance of being named to July 9th's Futures Game roster, so a promotion after that may be in the offing.  Or, the team may decide to wait a few weeks and see what Lansing's post-season chances look like. Development does trump winning at the minor league level, but teams do like their top prospects to play together on teams that are making a playoff run.  Whatever the case, a promotion for either Bichette or Guerrero will not happen until there's a consensus among the Lansing and minor league staff that one or both are ready.
      A cautionary tale:  there's not a huge jump in terms of the quality of pitching between Low and High A, but the experience of Bradley Jones is one worth considering.  A more seasoned (22 years of age) college grad, Jones was promoted to Dunedin in early June after posting a line of .326/.394/.560 at Lansing.  Facing pitchers with better command of their fastball and secondaries, Jones has scuffled with the D-Jays, hitting only .156 and striking out in almost half of his 68 PAs.  Is the risk of Bichette having a similar experience (perhaps not to the same extent) worth the challenge of moving him to the next level?  Particularly as the season winds down, and his fatigue likely increases?  The Blue Jays will have those and other factors to consider very shortly.

The Importance of Make Up
   Kim stressed the importance of this aspect, which he called "the sixth tool," in evaluating and recruiting players for the organization.  It was a phrase which came up several times in discussions about prospects.  When I spoke to Angus Mugford a few weeks ago, it also was something we talked about at length.  The thinking is that there is so little difference among just about all players in terms of their physical abilities, but when push comes to shove, make up can be the difference.
 

Talking Prospects
   On Rowdy Tellez, who has scuffled mightily (.197/.273/.321 to this point):

  Rowdy we remember last year numbers-wise didn't get off to the start that we had wanted, then rebounded.  He kept working hard and finished the year off very well, and then he went to the Dominican Winter League and had a good season there.  I think right now with Rowdy - he's a young player in Triple A, and he's going through some experiences that are teaching him a lot about who he is, and we fully support him.  He's working hard in Buffalo with Devo (hitting coach Devon White), Meach (manager Bobby Meacham), and  (Field Co-ordinator) Eric Wedge.  We're confident that he's going to be fine, and this experience will be one that we're going to look back on when he's in the big league as one that helped him.

   On Max Pentecost, who returned to Catching duties for the first time since August, 2015:

We really can't say enough about his perserverance through the whole process, and his positivity....being able to channel that positive outlook into his daily routine.  He has done well on the offensive side, which was no surprise, but we were definitely surprised with the strides he's been able to make with his blocking, receiving, and game-calling - despite not having been back there a whole lot in the last couple of years.  It just helps so much when you have a former Catcher like John Schneider (Dunedin's Manager) back there who's passionate about teaching Catching, and has been a great help.

   On Anthony Alford:

Anthony probably along with Danny Jansen are the two most improved players we have, which in Anthony's case is no surprise, given his work ethic and positive attitude.  He became more consistent with his timing, and put in a lot of reps in the Outfield in Spring Training, and he's improved all around in terms of approach and consistent hard contact, and his OF/CF defence.  It's been a pleasure to see the type of player he's made himself into....this is all on him.

   On Danny Jansen, who was leading the Florida State League in hitting before being promoted to New Hampshire to replace McGuire:

Jano's a leader.....one of our strongest make up guys in the organization.  And what he's doing is not surprising, because he's one of those players who make adjustments and improve.  Coming into it, he was a late invite to big league camp, and his game has just taken off since the Arizona Fall League.  He's concentrating on using more of the field offensively, and has been improving his game-calling.  Schneider and (New Hampshire Manager and former MLB Catcher) Gary Allenson have been a big help there.

   Sean Reid-Foley, who has struggled this year (4.25 BB/9 rate, lowest - 40.7% GB rate of his career), but has started to turn things around in his last few starts:

Sean maybe didn't have the start that he had envisioned, but he has bounced back, and is getting back to his dominant self.  He maybe was pressing a bit early, but he's been doing very well working on maintaining that power delivery, while trying to incorporate his change up more.

   Conner Greene, who has not dominated in his second go-round of AA as some thought he might, although his 59% GB rate is second-best in the Eastern League:

Conner has improved....that's all we can ask.  He's taking all those steps every day to get better - consistency of delivery, fastball command.....hitters aren't necessarily as comfortable against his fastball as they were earlier in Spring Training or last year.  His curve has come a very long way - tighter spin on it, with harder action and depth.

  Chris Rowley, who has been something of a revelation this year, starting in New Hampshire's bullpen before being called upon to fill in for injured starter Francisco Rios.  Rowley is now pitching out of Buffalo's pen:

Chris just knows how to pitch.  He keeps hitters off balance, throws strikes, and competes.  He's another solid make up guy, a true professional, and we're not surprised by the strides that he's made.  We have no plans at the moment to move him out of the pen in Buffalo.

   2nd round draft pick Hagen Danner:

Hagen is going to Catch.  He'll start in the Gulf Coast League, like many of our high school players do.

 
Players Who Have Surprised
   When asked who has made some giant leaps forward in terms of their development so far this year, Kim offers two names:

Yennsy Diaz, RHP, who started the year in Extended, and has struck out 18 in 11 innings over 3 starts since being promoted to Lansing earlier this month:

Yennsy really has some of the best stuff in the organization.  He's worked hard at getting more consistent, and getting over top of the baseball on his pitches.  He's had a pretty solid start at Lansing.

OF Edward Olivares, who has quietly put together a .279/.315/.513 mark with 14 steals for Lansing:

Edward was injured last year, skipped a level this year.  He has some of the best tools in the organization, and is working hard at dialing it in and refining his game. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bo Bichette Pursues .400

Clutchlings Photo

   It's a magical number - .400.   Ted Williams was the last to reach it 66 years ago.  Rod Carew flirted with it in the late 70s, as did George Brett in 1980.  Tony Gwynn was the last to approach that plateau when the labour disruption of 1994 ended his season in early August with a .394 average.  Blue Jays prospect Bo Bichette reached that number with an incredibe 7-8 performance against the Cubs' Midwest League affiliate South Bend in a double header last night.

   Here's a breakdown of Bichette's incredible night:

At Bat #1
   Facing Cubs' RHP Duncan Robinson, who stood 3rd in the MWL in ERA entering the night, he took an 0-1 fastball on the outer edge of the plate to right field for his first hit of the night in Lansing's top of the 1st.

At Bat #2
   Robinson clearly wanted no part of Bichette, offering up a steady diet of breaking balls in the top of the 3rd.  With the count 2-1, Robinson tried to get a fastball in on Bichette, but missed badly.  Bichette hammered it into the gap in Left Centre, driving in a run.

At Bat #3
  Bichette led off the top of the sixth, and Robinson continued to avoid giving him fastballs anywhere near the plate.  He hung a 2-2 change, and Bichette hammered it into the LF bleachers for his 7th Home Run, touching off a 5-run frame for Lansing.

At Bat #4
  After sending 9 men to the plate the previous inning, Bichette led off the top of the 7th, the final frame of Game 1 against reliever Jared Cheek.
   This 9 pitch AB may have been his best of the night.
   Down 0-2, Bichette fouled off a number of borderline pitches, before Cheek caught too much of the plate with a breaking ball, which Bichette lined into CF for a base hit.  His average now stood at .394.

Game 2
At Bat #1
   Facing Cubs RHP Erling Moreno, Bichette hit a 2-1 pitch into the hole at short, and beat the off-line throw to first for an infield single.

At Bat #2
   Moreno continued the breaking ball regimen.  Bichette hammered a mistake fastball all the way to the wall in Right Centre field, raising his average to .399.

At Bat #3
   Facing soft-tossing reliever Tyson Miller, Bichette showed some rare impatience, chasing a breaking ball out of the zone, and fout-tipping a low fastball into the Catcher's mitt for a swinging strikeout.  .400 would have to wait.

At Bat #4
   In his final at bat of the night, Bichette looped a fastball on the outer half to right field for a base hit, and his average finally reached .400.

  Of his 7 hits on the night, at least 5 of them were of the hard-hit variety.

   Coming into the season, teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr received all the attention, but Bichette, who hit .427/.451/.732 in a rookie season shortened by appendicitis in the GCL, has taken over the spotlight.
And rightly so.  Bichette leads the MWL in batting average, hits, doubles, OBP, Slugging, wRC+, and Line Drive rate.  He has hit safely in 46 of his first 52 games.  And he's not just feasting on mediocre pitching - Bichette has hit .361 against Top 20 prospects in his brief career.

    Blue Jays director of minor league operations Gil Kim had indicated earlier this year that the plan for the teenaged Lansing sluggers (Guerrero is 18, Bichette 19) was to stay in Michigan for the whole season, their first year of full season ball - the Blue Jays stated preference is to have their prospects spend a whole year at one level.  Kim, of course, is not tipping his hand, but you have to wonder if there is intense debate within the organization to up that timetable as the calendar flips from June to July.

   When Bichette reaches Advanced A, he will have adjustments to make.  The Pitchers there can locate their fastballs better, so he will likely see fewer mistakes to jump on.  Their secondary pitches will be better in terms of deception and location, so his pitch recognition skills will be tested.  Still, he has literally torn the cover off the ball, hitting .407/.463/.669 in 331 PAs over 72 games in his first two pro seasons.  Bichette is patient, does not expand his strike zone when down in the count, and hits the ball to all fields.  Quite simply, he's the most promising bat in the system right now.  Guerrero may catch up to him, but Bichette has raked..

Who Gets a Promotion?

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   Moving Week in minor league baseball is inching closer.
  Sometime in the first two weeks of June, as the minor league baseball season reaches its halfway point, teams begin the process of moving their deserving prospects up to the next level for a greater challenge.
 There must be a consensus among the minor league staff involved - from minor league managers and coaches, through to roving instructors, to front office personnel - that the player is ready for the physical and mental challenges that will come with moving up.
   Generally speaking, the Blue Jays have demonstrated under the Shapiro/Atkins regime a preference for moving a player up the ladder one step at a time, and having them spend at least a full season (whether that happen over the course of one calendar year or two) at each full season level.  There are exceptions, of course, but this is a leadership group that prefers the slow and steady path of development for their top prospects.
  And there are other factors that determine whether or not a player gets moved.  Having an open roster spot is an issue - sometimes, there just isn't room for a player at the next level.
    Having said all of that, it just doesn't look like there will be a lot of movement in the system this season.  The injury to Reese McGuire of New Hampshire created an opening for the most likely promotional candidate, Danny Jansen, just over a week ago.  Other than that, it's hard to see many other players making a move.  The strength of this system lies in its players at the lower levels, and while teams want to make sure their players are challenged, there's no need to rush many of them just yet.
   Still, that won't stop us from making a few educated guesses.....

Conner Greene
   When spring training breaks and players are assigned to minor league teams, they're given a list of things to work on during the season.  Greene's list no doubt included continuing to harness that electric fastball, which has topped 100 mph several times this spring.  And on that count, he's been inconsistent so far this season, walking 25 in 52 IP at New Hampshire.
   Still, the time may be coming for the 2013 draftee (and made 12 starts for the Fisher Cats last year), who must be placed on the 40-man roster this November, to move up.  When he's at his best, Greene commands the lower part of the strike zone with his moving two-seamer, and uses the four-seamer up in the zone to finish hitters off late in the count.  His 64.5% ground ball rate leads the Eastern League, demonstrating that while that latter gets the acclaim, it's the former that gets most of his outs.
   Greene's next-to-last start against Portland was a microcosm of his season so far.  His command was spotty, walking the lead off hitter, who scored two batters later.  In the third, he retired the side in quick fashion with a pair of gb outs and a swinging K.  After receiving the toss from 1B Ryan McBroom to retire the hitter at 1st in one inning, he slammed the ball to the ground in obvious frustration after recording the out - something that may have made it into Manager Gary Allenson's post-game report.
   With the shuffling in Buffalo's rotation, there may be room for Greene on the Niagara Frontier just the same, and the Blue Jays may decide to challenge him with a promotion there.

Bo Bichette
   The initial campaign of full season ball is a huge adjustment for most players.  Not only must they deal with the physical and emotional challenges of playing every day, they need to learn to take care of their bodies and personal affairs off the field.  Add in experiencing failure for perhaps the first time in their baseball lives, 8-hour bus rides, and doing it all far from home and family, and it can be a difficult time for some players, which is why many organizations are content to let their top prospects ride things out and spend a full season in Low A.
   But it's becoming harder to see the 2016 2nd rounder spending a whole season at Lansing.
   After an April in which he hit .371, Bichette has not cooled off in May, hitting .383.   He leads the Midwest League in Average, Runs, and Slugging and is 2nd in Doubles and OBP.  His 31.6% Line Drive rate leads the loop as well.  Heady stuff for a player in just his second year of pro ball.
   Among the list of things Bichette has had to work on, of course, is his defence.  He has split time between SS and 2B, with the organization no doubt wanting to improve his range (which is at least adequate) and his arm strength (which is accurate, but still fringy).  Bichette has good reactions to batted balls, but we're going to have to give him some time to see if he can consistently make that throw from the hole at SS.  Cavan Biggio is the incumbent 2B at Dunedin, so Bichette might not be able to split time between the two up-the-middle positions, and he may stay at Lansing as a result.
   At 19, while he's still one of the youngest players in the MWL, his mastery of Low A pitching may prompt the Blue Jays to send him to Dunedin for a greater challenge.

    An AB from Opening Weekend.....

Justin Maese
   Without as much fanfare as a couple of his higher profile teammates, Maese is putting together a solid season at Lansing.  A May 24th 7-inning complete game in which he fanned 12 and walked none, might be the most compelling demonstration of his growing domination of MWL hitters.
   Maese quite simply fills the strike zone, using his two-seamer to induce a great deal of weak contact.  In his late May start, 71 of his 97 pitches were thrown for strikes.  He does give up some contact, but as he refines his command, he is becoming tougher to barrel up.
   Last year, in only his second pro season, Maese skipped a level to play in Vancouver, and finished the season with Lansing.  He is approaching a full calendar year with the Lugnuts, and the organization may want to move him on to the next level.

Bradley Jones
   Like Maese, Jones has not received the acclaim his teenaged fellow infielders have received, but he has popped up on the prospect radar as a legitimate bat.
   Jones is among the MWL leaders in Slugging and Total Bases, slashing .324/.389/.568 so far this season, demonstrating an advanced approach at the plate.  If there was a concern about his production at the plate prior to this season, it would have to have been pitch recognition and working counts better.  He has done an outstanding job of that, and it wouldn't be going too far out on a limb to suggest that he has the best approach in the Lansing lineup.
   A 1st Baseman last year, Jones was told to pack a collection of gloves for the move to Michigan, and he's split time between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd this year.  His reactions on groundballs are better than had been anticpated, but his arm still is somehere in the fringy range.  But that almost doesn't matter - the bat will play.
   Turning 22 next month, it may be time to move Jones up to Dunedin.

   Jones at the plate in early April:

   Beyond that, it's hard to see much movement next month.  Fans have been clamoring to see top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr moved to the next level, but there is absolutely no need to rush him. Had he been born stateside, he would be preparing for next month's draft.  Rapid ascension is likely in his future, but not this year.  Anthony Alford would have been a good candidate to move to Buffalo next month, but his wrist injury has taken care of that.  Upon his return from a successful rehab, it's possible we see him with the Bisons in August if they're in a playoff hunt.


 

Bradley Jones: Bat on the Rise

Clutchlings Photo

     It's often easy to overlook a player.  Bradley Jones was an 18th round pick out of the College of Charleston last June, and it was easy to peg him as a bat-first, limited defensively player.  Certainly, Baseball America was not a huge fan of his overall game:

Jones draws some comparisons to former College of Charleston teammate Carl Wise--a fourth round pick by the Blue Jays last June--but his tools aren't quite as loud. He was some versatility, actually playing shortstop over the summer, but he's been primarily a first baseman and corner outfielder for the Cougars. Jones has above-average power and hit 11 home runs this spring but is a free swinger, and the Cougars' home ballpark helps hitters. Jones is a low motor player with mostly average tools and has the look of a utility type with power.

   After hitting 6 Home Runs in his first month at Bluefield, it was easy to suggest that as a college player, Jones was a bit advanced for that level.  In fact, I was surprised that he didn't start in Vancouver, but Christian Williams, who was taken in the 16th round a year earlier, was ahead of him on the 1st Base depth chart.
   Jones took off in August, hitting 9 Home Runs, en route to leading the Appy League in Homers, RBI, Total Bases, and Slugging.  That made him worth another look, but with two similar players ahead of him in the system in Rowdy Tellez and Ryan McBroom, Jones was not a player to be included in any top prospect discussions.  He was nowhere to be found in BA's Top Appy Prospects list and accompanying chat.

   Fast forward to this month, and that's all beginning to change.

   Jones, who went to Charleston as a shortstop, also played the corner outfield spots in college, in addition to 1st Base.  At instructs last fall, he spent considerable time at 2nd and 3rd in order to enhance his versatility.  That has allowed Lansing Manager Cesar Martin considerable flexibility this year to get Jones' potent bat into the Lugnuts lineup on a daily basis.  And that's paid off in spades, as Jones trails teammate Bo Bichette in Midwest League hitting, and he's near the top in most offensive categories.
  More importantly, after hitting mostly 6th in the opening games of the season, he's settled in at the 5th spot, providing protection in the lineup for his former Bluefield teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Jones has played 1st, 3rd, 2nd, and seen time at DH as he's mashed his way to a 1.219 OPS through the first two-plus weeks of the season.

   At the plate, Jones has a balanced approach.  Using only a slight leg kick, his bat drifts back slowly, and he brings his hands in tight to his body, getting his bat through the strike zone in time to consistently barrel up balls.

   h/t to @JaysBoard for the video...

   A concern has to be a swing that can be long, creating a swing-and-miss element (27.7% K rate last year, 28.6% so far this year), he is showing some improved plate discipline:

Clutchlings video/Youtube

  Defensively, Jones is at least adequate at the moment, and will likely improve with experience.  Not blessed with great speed, he has decent reactions to the ball, but has something of a crossfire throw, which allows him to unload the ball quickly after a smooth transfer, but he doesn't get a lot on it:

Clutchlings video/Youtube

   While Jones has been feasting on pitching in the low minors, the truer test of his bat-to-ball skills will come when he reaches High A and then AA.  Pitchers at those levels will have sharper command of their fastballs, and more effective secondary pitches.  For the moment thought, even though he's overshadowed by teammates Guerrero Jr and Bichette, Jones has become arguably the most dangerous bat in the Lansing lineup.  He leads the Midwest League in hits and Runs Batted In,  is tied for 1st in Homers, and is 2nd in Average and Slugging.  While there is some question as to where Bichette and Guerrero ultimately wind up on the field, Jones appears to be profiling as a super-utility guy, capable of playing a multitude of positions. The three should continue to move up the system ladder together, and it's time we start talking about Jones more as a result.

    Teenagers Bichette and Guerrero may have more remaining projection and potentially higher ceilings than the soon-to-be (in June) 22 year old Jones, but he is already proving his worth to the organization.

 

A Look at the Lugnuts

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  It was a beautiful day in Central Michigan Saturday as the Lansing Lugnuts opened their home Midwest League season at Cooley Law School Stadium in the State Capitol.  24 hours before the area -like much of Southern Ontario - had seen snow, and remnants of it could be found along I-69 after crossing the Bluewater Bridge at Sarnia, but conditions were perfect for spring baseball.

  The Lugnuts were playing a return engagement with the nearby Great Lakes Loons, who the Lugs had swept a doubleheader from the night before (the opener on Thursday had been a victim of the storms sweeping the Midwest).

  Lansing has a diverse lineup of players mostly new to full-season ball, with a roster comprised of products of the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and 13 different states in the U.S. - but, surprisingly, no Canadians, with as many as four of them on the roster last year.

  A guy making the drive across the border was treated to a gorgeous day (as was the following day), with a good view of batting and infield practice, a street party introducing the players and new team logo prior to the game, and a clear (if not quickly cooling) April sky as the 6 pm game time approached.

  I am not a scout, and while decades of playing, watching, and studying the game have given me the ability to do a reasonable impression of one, I encourage you to corroborate the following opinions with a real, live version of one.

  Here are some notes from my weekend.....

P Patrick Murphy
   Few players on the field have struggled through as much adversity as the Arizona RHP has. Blue Jays scout (now cross-checker) Blake Crosby was in Chandler, AZ (a suburb of Phoenix) in 2012 scouting 3B Mitch Nay, who the Blue Jays took as a sandwich pick that June.  He was intrigued by Murphy, who was a junior on the Chandler team.  Just prior to the state playoffs, Murphy tore his UCL in a pre-game warmup (although he went on to pitch a complete-game shutout).  He sat out his senior season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  The Blue Jays still felt encouraged enough about his long-term prospects to take him in the 3rd round that year (2013).

Clutchlings Photo

   Murphy did not make his pro debut until 2014, and he only made three appearances that season before being shut down with an injury.  He was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, and underwent surgery to remove a rib that was pinching a nerve, leading to arm numbness.  In addition, he had a different nerve removed from his elbow; everything added up to costing him all of the 2015 season.
   Murphy didn't return to action until May of last year - a total absence of 671 days.  He pitched well in short outings for Lansing, but was sent down to Vancouver when their season opened in June. After C's ace Justin Maese was promoted to Lansing a few weeks later, Murphy took over the role of Vancouver's top starter, and later was named the Northwest League's 12-best prospect by Baseball America for his efforts.

   The 6'4/220 Murphy looks every the part a pitcher, and he has the build of a starter, a potential innings-eater. He throws a fastball, curve, and change.  Murphy needed only 12 pitches to get through the first inning, sitting between 88-91, and hitting 92 with his FB.  He did give up a pair of hard-hit balls, one of which dropped in for a single.
   In the 2nd, Murphy showed the effects of a long bottom of the first in which his teammates put four runs on the board.  The first five pitches he threw were balls; his 7th was a double laced down the LF line, putting runners on 2nd and 3rd with none out.  Both runners eventually came in to score, but Murphy unleashed his curve that inning, a frame in which he needed 18 pitches and a nifty play by converted 2nd Baseman Bradley Jones for Murphy to get out of.
   The 3rd inning was a coming out party for that curve.  Murphy was able to command both sides of the plate with his fastball, getting ahead of the hitters, then dropping Uncle Charlie in for strikes. With his over-the-top delivery, Murphy gets good tilt and a 12-6 action on his curve, and even when hitters sat on it in this game, the movement and downward action on it were so effective that they were not able to make solid contact with it.  He did give up a Home Run that inning on a fastball that caught too much of the plate - with its high outfield walls, Cooley is usually a pitcher-friendly park, but with the breeze blowing out to center field that night, 4 long balls were hit.
  Murphy threw 11 pitches in the 3rd, 13 in the 4th, and only 8 in the 5th, his shortest of the night.  He began to rely on the curve more, throwing the occasional change, to miss a number of bats.  Murphy did give up a lead off double, followed by an infield single to the hole that Bo Bichette showed good range to simply get to, but his throw was no where near strong enough to get the runner at first.  Jones started a neat double play to get the first two outs of the inning.
   Back out for the 6th at 62 pitches, Murphy struggled due to some likely fatigue, and some long innings while his teammates plated more runs.  After giving up a double, single,  run-scoring double, and another single, Murphy was done for the night.  After pitching mostly effectively through the first 5, Murphy was squared up that inning, even though he hit 95, and sat 91-93.  After waging a mostly winning battle with his fastball all night, his command had clearly deserted him that inning.
   On the night, Murphy gave up 9 hits in 5 innings, along with 6 runs (all earned).  He walked one and fanned four.  Murphy threw 78 pitches, 51 of them for strikes - he was pitching from behind for much of the night, throwing only 11 first-strike pitches to the 24 hitters he faced.  Murphy recorded 6 outs via ground balls, and 3 by fly balls.
   While he had difficulties with his command on the night, his curve is emerging as a wipeout pitch.  The Blue Jays are likely hoping that his command will improve as the season progresses and the weather warms up, which will make his curve that much more effective a weapon.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr
   Much has been made of the cream of the 2015 international free agent crop.  After only one short season of play, the son of the future Hall-of-Famer has become the Blue Jays top prospect, and a Baseball America cover boy.
   During batting practice, Guerrero demonstrates an easy, loose swing that generates tremendous power at the tender age of 18 due to his bat speed, and thick, solid lower half.  As he gets older and becomes stronger, it's easy to project that power up even more.  He shows good judgement at the plate, seldom expanding his strike zone.

   In the field, he has been described as an adequate defender since being switched to 3rd last year. His stocky build does limit his range somewhat, but he does have quick reactions to the ball, and his arm is at least average.  He may not remind anyone of Brooks Robinson, and his ultimate position may be across the diamond, but Guerrero shows enough at the hot corner to remain there for the short and medium-term future.
   On the bases, Guerrero may not be a speed demon, but he gets down the first base line well, and is a smart and sometimes aggressive baserunner.  He won't get any faster as he ages, but it's hard to see him becoming a base clogger.
   Guerrero walked on four pitches to load the bases in his first AB on Saturday.  He lined up a single on the middle in his second, and flew out softly to right in his third.  Coming up for the fourth time in the 6th, Guerrero drilled a pitch down the left field line for a two-out double, then lined out to right in his final plate appearance.
   Guerrero has said that he wants to be in the majors by the time he is 20, and while the team no doubt wants to take their time with his development, he is only going to get better and better.  His final place on the field may be in question, but there is no doubt that his bat will soon play.
   As much as we are all in something of a rush to see this kid reach the big leagues, he still has some growing to do.  He may not dominate the Midwest League, mainly because if the rest of the league shows a disinclination to throw him fastballs anywhere near the strike zone like the Great Lakes' pitchers did all weekend, he's just not going to put up ridiculous numbers unless he gets some support behind him in the lineup. If he had been raised stateside, he would be a high school senior, and a likely first overall pick in June.  The Blue Jays in all likelihood will be patient with him, and let him continue to develop his all-around game.
   He'll be worth the wait, friends.

Bo Bichette 
   The Blue Jays scored something of a coup by taking the Florida high schooler with their second of two second round picks last June.  Bichette laid waste to GCL pitching last summer, scorching his way to a .427/.451/.732 line despite missing a month of the season with appendicitis (Bichette hinted that missing so much time was not his idea, but the Blue Jays had 1.1 million reasons for being cautious with him).  Despite that small sample size, he was ranked the GCL's 4th best prospect by BA, and the Blue Jays's 8th by MLB Pipeline.
   Prior to the draft, there was some concern about Bichette's hitting mechanics.  With a high back elbow and an extreme bat wrap to trigger his swing, some thought pro pitchers might exploit him on the inner half.
   So much for that.
   The Blue Jays did little to change his mechanics last year, but the wrap has been quieted down this year. He still makes consistently hard contact, and his BP prior to the home opener was a sight to behold.  His older brother Dante Jr tore up the GCL in his first pro season, and has mostly struggled at the plate ever since, but Bo is clearly cut from a different mould.  He can work a count, but he can also jump on a first-pitch fastball like he did in this At Bat:

   

  In the field, the Blue Jays seem content to let Bichette play mostly shorstop, even with the presence of a superior defender in Yeltsin Gudino on the roster.  Bichette has good reactions to the ball, and even though few were hit to him over the course of the first weekend of play, he showed solid instincts when he tracked a grounder to the hole between 3rd and 2nd, but skipped his throw to first in a vain attempt to nab the runner. In pre-game practice, Bichette showed a great work ethic, fast-twitch reflexes, but only an average arm. That long throw from the hole may continue to be a challenge. There is still room for improvement, but like Guerrero at 3rd, it's hard to see Bichette staying at SS in the long-term.  He will be a bat-first player wherever he ends up.

J.B Woodman
   Taken a few picks ahead of Bichette, the collegian was ranked the 6th best Northwest League prospect by BA last year.  Scouts noted the amount of hard contact he made on both fastballs and off-speed pitches.  If there's one nagging concern from last year, it's the 72K's in just under 200 ABs, and while Woodman works the count in most of his plate appearances, there appears to be a fair amount of swing and miss to his game - in the first four games of the season, he fanned at least twice in each contest.  Woodman's swing can be a bit long, which probably contributes to his misses.

 While is still is early, it will be interesting to see if Woodman can make more contact as the season progresses.
   In the outfield, Woodman covers a good amount of ground, and the lasers he threw during pre-game practice show why some scouts suggest he profiles as a right fielder.

Bradley Jones
   Overshadowed by his younger teammate Guerrero last year, Jones led the Appy League in Home Runs. He  underwent a position change last fall at Instructs, trading his 1st Baseman's mitt for an infielder's glove. Jones started the first game of the year at 2nd, and the next game at 3rd.  In the first, he started a nifty 4-unassisted-3 double play, and in the 2nd, made a nice play on a slow roller and fired across the diamond to retire the hitter.

   Jones does have something of a side arm throwing motion, and while that allows him to unload the ball quickly, it doesn't always result in the strongest of throws.  Jones played outfield in college, so perhaps the Blue Jays are trying to develop him as a super-utility player.  Just the same, that bat will play, and he actually was one of the better defensive Lugnuts on the weekend.
   At the plate, Jones demonstrated the patience that was prevalent throughout the Lugnuts' lineup, going 3-5 on Sunday and launching a Home Run to left center.  He has a swing-and-miss aspect to his offence, but with Woodman, Bichette, and Guerrero, he should become part of a gauntlet of sluggers in the middle of the Lansing order.

Nash Knight
   I admit to having a huge preference for the underdog.  Undrafted out of Dallas Baptist (Ryan Goins' Alma Mater), he joined the organization in 2015, and mashed his way to a .402/473/.588 line at Bluefield before earning an August promotion to Vancouver last year.
   Despite those gaudy numbers last year, Knight is still very much an org guy - a minor league roster filler.  In an attempt to build some versatility, he was converted to Catcher last fall at Instructs, but with the depth of the system at that position (Ryan Hissey returns to Catching duties this year, joined by Michael De la Cruz, who was with the team in 2015), he played 1st on Opening Day, and probably won't see much action behind the plate this year unless injuries dictate otherwise.
   During pre-Opening Day BP, even with Bichette, Guerrero, Woodman, and Jones blasting bombs, Knight's show was perhaps the most impressive.  He was hitting line drive rockets all over the field. At 24, the clock on his chances of an MLB career is ticking close to midnight, but it was fun to watch that BP session.

Zach Jackson
   Many have suggested that last year's 4th rounder could be on a fast track to the big club.  There's a lot to like - a FB that hits 94, and a funky delivery that creates deception and allows him, like Murphy, to get on top of a 12-6 curveball, his go-to pitch.  In fact, Jackson even admitted that he used it sparingly at Vancouver last year,
   Jackson took over from Murphy in the 6th, and retired the side on five pitches to limit the damage, fanning the last batter on a pair of nasty 81 swing-and-whiff hooks.  In his next inning, he retired the side in order again, topping 94, and sitting 88-91 with a mix of an 84-85 change and that curve ball.
   Back out again for another inning of work in the 8th, he gave up a leadoff Homer, followed by a walk and a double before his night was brought to an end.  Clearly gassed, he was dominant for his first two innings.  If there's one concern about Jackson, it's that lefties appear to be able to square him up solidly.  Either another pitch or improved location will be necessary for him to get them out on a more consistent basis. Still, as his stamina builds this year, he should add a tick or two to his FB, which will make his curve even more devastating.  He's profiling as one of those max effort, lights-out guy in short stretches.

Cesar Martin
   When we think of the minors, we tend to think of young players in terms of prospects.  What's easy to overlook is that sometimes MLB teams are grooming future Managers and Coaches as well.  And that may be the case with Martin (say Mar-teen), who joined the Blue Jays organization as an 18 year old almost two decades ago.  Martin played briefly in the system, and has been an instructor at various levels for several years.
   For the last two years, he managed the highly successful GCL Blue Jays entry, so moving up to Lansing was a natural fit.  Martin has been described as a quiet guy with a laid-back approach, but is able to get through to his players.  From his interactions with them before the game, it's obvious that he already has a good rapport with them, and has their respect.
   There is no guarantee of an MLB job for minor league players, and the same holds true for Managers and Coaches.  For many, their value to their respective organizations lies in their abilities to develop players, and while he may be a Managerial prospect on the rise in his own right, Martin may fit that profile.
 
********************************************************************************
   There are few commodities in minor league baseball more dispensable than the long reliever.
Generally speaking, relievers at the big league level are converted starters - for every Aaron Loup that comes up through the system in a relief role, there's Ryan Tepera, Joe Biagini, Roberto Osuna, or Matt Dermody who moved into the bullpen from the rotation at some point during their MiLB apprenticeship.
   The minor league long reliever's main job is to protect the high-profile arms in the starting rotation.  Once they have reached their pitch limits, the long man comes in to soak up innings.  Early in the season, when the pitch counts are in the 60-80 range (depending on the starter), the long man typically comes in during the fifth or sixth innings, and most Managers try to use them for multiple innings.  It's understandable - the more relievers he has to use on any given day, the fewer he'll have at his disposal the following one
    Minor league long men tend to be non-drafted free agents, often the college variety.  They're guys who have proven that they can get hitters out, but either lack the velocity or secondary pitches to turn over a lineup, hence their move to the bullpen.
    Jackson Lowery was one of those guys.  A teammate of Zach Jackson's at Arkansas, Lowery took the long route to pro ball.  Originally an infielder when he attended Central Arkansas after high school, he transferred to a Mississippi Junior College in order to pitch.  The following year, he realized a dream when he caught on with the Razorbacks.  Even though he was a mainstay in the Arkansas 'pen in 2015 in long relief, because he was viewed as undersized at 6'/170, he was overlooked in the draft.
   Signed by the Blue Jays, he pitched well in rookie ball at 2015, and Saved 11 games between Vancouver and Lansing last year.  I had thought that he was ticketed for Dunedin this year, but he became a victim of a numbers game, as the Blue Jays had too many bullpen arms for A ball.  Lowery went to Australia to pitch for Canberra in the off season, but was used sparingly, and was overmatched against the more advanced hitters.
   Every year, I manage to convince one of the Blue Jays prospects sent to Australia to correspond with me over the winter.  Last year, it was Phil Kish, this past year it was Lowery.  Both were relievers who were sent to Australia to get some extra innings in the hope that it would accelerate their development.  To be honest, they were also sent there probably to protect some of the more valued bullpen arms in the organization.  Lest we say we spot a trend here, Anthony Alford also carried on a correspondence with me the year before Kish.
   Kish was released in spring training last year, and Lowery was let go at the end of spring training this year. Both had some decent seasons, and both filled important roles for the teams they played on, but in the end, the front office felt that they were bumping their heads against their respective ceilings, and with other arms coming up from the levels below them every year that throw harder or have better secondaries, they became odd men out in the process.
   I appreciate the insights into baseball, pitching, and life in Australia that both players shared.  Both were, in the words of Pat Jordan in his lyrical A False Spring, "the boy who went away":  players who may not have realized their major league dreams, but came much closer to them than the rest of us did.  Kish is already well into an accounting career that he had started in the off seasons during his playing days;  Lowery has not indicated if he'll try to catch on with another organization,  find an indy ball team, go back to school, or transition to the working world.  Whatever he chooses, I wish him well.


   

Projecting the Rosters - Lansing

   Even though a snow squall is currently obliterating the view out my family room window onto my backyard this blustery Sunday Southern Ontario morning, there is light at the end of the tunnel - Minor League Opening Day is about 90 days (or so) away.
    So that means it's time to call up Baseball Reference, grab a yellow legal pad, sharpen some pencils, and try to project the rosters of the Blue Jays four full season minor league teams.
 
   Starting at the bottom, we have the Lansing Lugnuts, of the Low A Midwestern League.  These are exciting times in the Michigan city - this past off season, they renewed their Player Development Contract with the Blue Jays for two years, a new 2000 sq ft special events venue in the outfield opens this season, and a three-story/84-unit apartment complex opened along the centrefield wall last August.  To top it off, Lansing may have the best collection of projected talent in the system this year, including 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who at 17 may already be one of the best prospects in all of baseball.

   In the process of constructing these rosters, I've looked at the performance of players on teams below them the previous season.  It's usually customary to advance one rung at a time up the full season ladder, but complicating the job of building Lansing's 2017 roster is that there are players from three levels (Vancouver, Bluefield, GCL Blue Jays) to consider.
   At best, these rosters are educated guesses, and there is considerable information unavailable to the average fan about team's plans for their players this season.  As well, spring training can largely dictate where a player lands that season - Rowdy Tellez seemed ticketed for another half season with Dunedin at the close of spring training last year, but his maturity and strike zone management persuaded the organization to accelerate his development, and he more than responded to the challenge.
   Like MLB teams, minor league clubs can have no more than 25 players on their active rosters. At times, they can be creative with their 7-Day disabled list,  in order to facilitate one or two more players for a brief period of time.
   I have included each player's age (as of January 1st, 2017), 2016 team(s), and relevant stats.
Catchers

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/Slug
C	Javier Hernandez	20	Vancouver	.215/.291/.313
C	Matt Morgan	20	Bluefield	.179/.313/.286

  Hernandez is already possibly the best defensive Catcher in the organization, although his bat has been slow to develop.  Morgan has shown very little since being a 4th round pick two seasons ago.  He may be in competition with Bluefield teammate Ridge Smith, a 12th round pick last year.  

Infielders

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/Slug
1B	Christian Williams	20	Vancouver	.236/.341/.340
2B	Cavan Biggio	21	Vancouver	.273/.371/.349
2B/SS	Bo Bichette	18	GCL Jays	.427/.451/.732
SS	Yeltsin Gudino	19	Vancouver	.226/.338/.258
3B	Bryan Lizardo	19	Vancouver	.220/.284/.333
3B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr	17	Bluefield	.271/.359/.449
UT	Deiferson Barreto	21	Vancouver	.215/.259/.333
DH	Bradley Jones	21	Bluefield	.291/.336/.578

   This will be an exciting group.  Guerrero is the obvious standout, but Biggio, and Bichette (whose first year of pro ball was a smashing success, despite missing a month due to appendicitis), and Appalachian League Home Run leader Jones will mean that this is a club that should produce some runs.  Bichette may split time with Gudino and Biggio, and the only reason that he may start the season in Vancouver in June instead of Lansing in April is to give him more playing time at Extended.  

Outfielders

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/Slug
OF	Joshua Palacios	21	Vancouver	.330/.397/.426
OF	J.B. Woodman	22	Vancouver	.297/.391/.445
OF	Jake Anderson	24	Lansing/Van	.199/.260/.290
OF	Reggie Pruitt	19	Bluefield	.237/.316/.266

   Palacios and Woodman were promoted to Lansing in late August, and both more than held their own against MWL pitching.  Anderson, the prodigal 2011 compensation round pick, made his return to competition last year after being limited to only 73 At Bats from 2013 to 2015 because of injury.  He began the season with Lansing, but finished with Vancouver, and didn't see a whole lot of strikes in his time in the Northwest League.  Pruitt, the 2015 23rd rounder whose draft stock dipped because of a college commitment, re-tooled his swing at Instructs last fall, and may be a spring training surprise.  If he isn't, Rodrgio Orozco (.241/.348/.289 at Vancouver last year),  Norberto Obeso (.316/.441/.408 in the GCL), or Lance Jones (.325/.486/.429 at Bluefield) may fill out the roster.

Starting Pitchers

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	WHIP/K/9/BB.9
SP	Justin Maese	20	Van-Lansing	1.14/7.0/1.6
SP	Patrick Murphy	20	Lansing-Van	1.46/6.8/3.7
SP	T.J. Zeuch	21	Van-Lansing	1.12/10.1/1.9
SP	Yennsy Diaz	20	Bluefield	1.53/7.7/4.8
SP	Jose Espada	19	Bluefield	1.23/.5.4/2.0

   The top end of this rotation can probably match any in the MWL.  Maese, a 2015 3rd rounder, reached Lansing last summer in only his second season of pro ball, while Murphy, whose own injury woes kept him sidelined him for almost two years, made a strong comeback in 2016, and was Vancouver's top pitcher. Zeuch, Toronto's top pick in last year's draft, gives Lansing a formidable 1-2-3 set of starters.  Beyond that, it's a toss-up.  Diaz impressed in the Appy League last year, but had some command issues, and Espada, after a solid pro debut in 2015, didn't miss as many bats when he moved up a level last year.  Some dark-horse candidates to make the rotation may include Wilfri Aleton, who fanned almost a batter per inning in the GCL last year, Juliandry Higuera, who has spent most of the last two seasons with Bluefield, or even Maximo Castillo, who pitched as a 17 year old in the GCL last summer.  Luis Sanchez made 12 starts for Vancouver last year, and may fill out the back end of the Lansing rotation if the other candidates don't prove to be ready.

Relief Pitchers

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	WHIP/K/9/BB.9
RP	Jackson McClelland	22	Vancouver	1.35/7.4/3.0
RP	Griffin Glaude	24	Van-Lansing	1.32/10.2/4.2
RP	Zach Jackson	22	Vancouver	1.42/6.1/11.7
RP	Jackson Lowery	24	Van-Lansing	1.13/8.7/2.5
RP	Jared Carkuff	23	GCL Jays-Van	1.01/12.5/1.4
RP	Geno Encina	22	Van-Lansing	1.03/9.0/1.6

   This is probably the hardest group to predict.  Jackson may be the most notable name of the group. Owner of one of the best curveballs in the system, he may not be in Lansing long.  A few names who might elbow their way into contention for a spot include Travis Bergen (limited to 5 innings last year), Conner Eller (7 Saves for Bluefield, 8.6K/9 for Bluefield in 2016), or Vancouver relievers Gabe Noyalis, Grayson Huffman, or Evan Smith.  Despite the uncertainty of its makeup, the bullpen may be one of its strengths.

   The 2016 Lugnuts promise to be one of the better editions of the team in recent years, although their pitching depth may be a concern.  With Lansing just over a 4 hour drive from the Greater Toronto Area (there are no plans as of this moment to stream the Lugs' home games over milb.tv), the trip may be well worth your while this year.