Blue Jays Prospects Prosper In Australia Amid Questions About the ABL's Future

David Harris\
Canberra Times photo

  As play heads into its final weekend before the post-season, questions abound amongst Australian baseball fans about the future of the Australian Baseball League.

  The Blue Jays have had a very successful partnership with the Canberra Cavalry, one of the few profitable teams in the loop.  Former Jays farmhand C Jack Murphy was the ABL MVP and led the Cavalry to the ABL title, as well as an Asia Series Championship in 2013-14.  The lessons the backwards-pitching veteran ABL pitchers taught Anthony Alford about pitch recognition last year helped to contribute to his breakout stateside season in 2015.  This year, 2B David Harris, and SS Jason Leblebijian, who both split time with Lansing and Dunedin, have been the offensive leaders as the Cavs sit 2nd to Brisbane, and have a post-season series with Adelaide starting next weekend.  Harris leads the league in hitting, while Leblebijian is tied for the lead in RBI.

  The original ABL ran from 1989-1999, but folded as many of the outfit's teams were awash in a sea of red ink, and there were problems distributing talent evenly.  The loop was briefly re-established shortly after the turn of the century, and was resuscitated once again in 2009, with MLB taking on a 75% ownership stake, with Baseball Australia taking on the other quarter.  Some of the teams have been successful in gaining local sponsorships, but questions about the league's future began about a year ago, when MLB's original five-year commitment was about the expire.

   The start of the ABL season in late October was marked with controversy when CEO Peter Wermuth was abruptly fired on the eve of the season opener.  A permanent replacement still has yet to be named, with Baseball Australia head Brett Pickett acting as spokesperson.  Few tears were shed at Wermuth's dismissal, however, as Aussie fans had grown impatient with his failure to grow the league over his five-year tenure.
   The ABL is crucial to the development of the sport down under, but it ranks far down the list of the average Aussie's favourite sport.  A quick scan of the Canberra Times is a challenge if you're looking for baseball stories.  Cricket, Australian Rules Football, Soccer, and Women's Basketball appear to far outpace baseball in terms of popularity.  Attendance figures are not published with league box scores, and while Canberra and Perth seem to be well-supported, there are scores of empty seats at the home parks of the other four teams.
   Clouding the ABL's future is Pickett's admission that MLB is looking to reduce its majority stake in the league, but he insists that there will be a 2016-17 ABL season.  The league is looking for corporate partners in North America, Asia, and Australia to give the league a fresh injection of capital.  According to Pickett, there is no timetable for the MLB to reduce their stake in the league. In the short term, there will be an ABL, but the long-term outlook is less than clear.  MLB, in their original agreement with Baseball Australia, signed on for a five-year term.  With that coming to a close, MLB is clearly not optimistic about the league's future, and was growing tired of subsidizing a money-losing operation.

   With relations between the USA and Cuba continuing to thaw, there has been considerable speculation that MLB may shift their focus in that direction.  Cuba would certainly be closer for organizations to keep an eye on their prospects, although there is nothing imminent between the island nation and MLB.  For Australian baseball fans, it's been a fun time, but it appears that there aren't enough of them to make this league viable.
  From a Blue Jays perspective, it's hard to say how the club feels about these developments.  On the one hand, no Blue Jay prospect who was sent to Australia has played in the majors (former Cavs Didi Gregorius and Kevin Kiermaier have), but aside from Alford, the club has sent no top-level prospects to the ABL.  But the league does fill a developmental niche for the club:  Alford did not play against top-level high school competition in his native Mississippi, and because of his college football commitment, had amassed just over 100 PAs in his first three minor league seasons.  The ABL was like summer school for the toolsy outfielder, and it's doubtful he's a top 100 prospect now without that catch-up experience.  The ABL also can give players like Colton Turner and Phil Kish a chance to make up for innings lost because of injury, and if nothing else for org guys like Harris and Leblebijian, it can accelerate their development to the point where they could become very serviceable depth pieces in the upper minors.  A personal note about Harris - I saw the 2013 36th rounder (out of Southern Arkansas) in his rookie season with Vancouver, where he made a pair of athletic plays in a July game.  Playing 2nd Base, Harris had to sidestep a runner advancing from first while he charged a 1st inning slow roller, which he fielded cleanly and threw across his body to nip the batter at 1st.  Several innings later, he ranged far down the right field line to grab an opposite-field flare that threatened to drop in.   A fixture at the top of the Cavalry batting order, Harris has played CF for Canberra this year, demonstrating his multi-position versatility.  I've watched his career very closely since that night at The Nat, the home of the Vancouver Canadians.
   All things being equal, it's likely that while the Jays are supportive of the ABL, if there was an opportunity one day to have their farmhands play winter ball closer to home, where the cost of transporting and housing them would be cheaper, they would welcome it.  While the players they've sent have for the most part not Top 10 guys, they have sent many players who have made a significant impact for the Cavalry.

   It just seems appropriate to include a Murphy Walk Off HR to conclude this piece:

Clutchlings Notebook - Off Season Edition

Jack Murphy
Canberra Times photo

The minor league season has been over for six weeks now, but that doesn't mean an end to baseball activity for prospects.

   Instructional League play has been taking place in both Florida and Arizona since late September. Organizations invite their top prospects (most of them from the lower levels) for further instruction and refinement.  The Blue Jays hold their Instructs camp at their Dunedin complex - prospects work on skills in the morning, then play games in the afternoon against other minor league instructional league teams from the area.
   News from Instructs can be sketchy.  I do have a couple of Florida-based sources who have updated me on the progress of several prospects.  Stats are barely kept, and they can be misleading, as prospects are trying to put newly learned skills into game use. Former Jays greats George Bell and Ernie Whitt were on hand to help with the instruction - Whitt, who managed Canada to an incredible Gold Medal win at the Pan Am Games, will be once again guiding a Canadian team this fall.  This time, the former Catcher will lead the senior men's team at the International Baseball Federation's Premier 12 tournament in Taiwan.  This tournament involves the top ten ranked baseball countries in the world (Canada sits at 7th), and opens November 8th.   I'm still waiting to find out about Canada's roster, but we do know at this point that Justin Atkinson, who started the year at Lansing, and finished at Vancouver, will be on it.  The 5th year pro, a 26th round pick out of North Surrey (BC) HS, can catch and play the corner infield positions.  He will be called upon to be a back up at all three of those spots at this tournament.  Canada plays 3rd ranked Cuba in their opening game.
  We also know that Vladimir Guerrero Jr, the top ranked international free agent signed this past July, has turned a lot of heads with his power.  His first Home Run was described by Eddie Michels of Rocket Sports, a Tampa-based web broadcaster:

The shot was hit so high to left field at the Blue Jays Mattick Complex that it landed on the concrete walkway behind the 30-foot screen then bounced about half way over the clubhouse landing on the roof.  

   Guerrero hit another homer a day later, and this time my friend and frequent photo contributor @BaseballBetsy was there to capture it:

   Guerrero will probably play stateside in the GCL next year - he may not start there, but he likely will finish.  Despite his bat, the biggest challenge he faces is rebuilding his potentially high-maintenance body.  I would really like to see him embrace a better conditioning routine and diet.  Much has been made already of Guerrero not having the all around game like his father did, and while 1st Base will be his likely destination one day, it would give the organization more flexibility if Jr can change his body and develop some improved agility.   

   

    Even though Instructional League play has wound down, there is still baseball being played somewhere.
And one of those places is Arizona, where the Arizona Fall League began play this week.  The AFL is a chance for teams to give their top prospects additional experience playing against elite competition.  The Blue Jays have sent several players to suit up for the Salt River Rafters  river (rafting apparently is a big thing in the Phoenix area):  pitchers Justin Shafer, Chad Girodo and Brady Dragmire, as well as speedy OF Roemon Fields, IF/OF Emilio Guerrero, and 1B/DH Rowdy Tellez.  P Jeremy Gabryszwski was a late addition to the roster.
   This may not be as talented a group as others the Blue Jays have sent to the Southwest, but the bundle of prospects they gave up in July may be to blame for that.  Tellez is a masher who made it to High A in his third  pro season, and is 4-8, with a HR and 8 RBI in his first two games.  Girodo is a submarining lefty who to me has a shot at unseating Aaron Loup as the first southpaw up in the bullpen if not next year, then definitely in 2017.  His delivery makes him extremely tough on left-handed hitters.
   
   And we received word earlier this week that the Blue Jays have named the group of prospects who will be making the trip down under to play in the Australian Baseball League.  Toronto has had a partnership with the Canberra Cavalry, who have been reasonably competitive in the loop, which is designed to promote the game and give homegrown talent a chance to play.  It also gives MLB prospects a chance to accelerate their development, and it often gives players who were let go by a major league organization to showcase themselves for other teams.  David Polkinghorne, who covers the Cavalry for the Canberra Times,  says that while the league is important for Aussie baseball, the game sits "well behind cricket (our national summer sport), and in Canberra it sits just ahead of soccer and women's basketball," in terms of popularity.
   The ABL relies heavily on MLB for players and financial support.  The Australian Government and a handful of Aussie corporations contribute to the league's operating expenses as well.  Polkinghorne says that possibly only Canberra and perennial contender Perth are financially viable on their own.
  The league has an import rule that dictates that at least 5 players in the 10-man on-field lineup must be Aussies.  That rule cost Canberra a game last year, when Australian OF Adam Silva was hit by a pitch in the 6th inning of a game and couldn't continue, and the Cavs had no homegrown replacement on the bench.  The easiest way around this rule, of course, is to have top-level (that is to say, MLB-owned) native talent on your roster, but the distribution of strong amatuer program in Australia is uneven, and most Aussie MLB prospects prefer to play for their hometowns, meaning that teams like Canberra, that don't have a good amateur organizations in their area, as Polkinghorne says, get "players the other states don't want."
   There's extensive video coverage of the ABL on their website.  There are limited camera angles, and the Aussie commentary is a bit different to North American ears, but it's a good opportunity to watch some of these and other prospects.
   One of Canberra's favourite Blue Jays farmhands, C Jack Murphy, was dealt to the Dodgers in the Darwin Barney deal, was a hero in the nation's capital, returning year after year, and leading the Cavs to an ABL title in 2013, as well as an Asia Series championship, a competition for Asian club teams. Murphy originally declined Canberra's offer to return, but changed his mind this past week.  Because he has played more than two consecutive seasons in the ABL, he doesn't count as an import.  That could be huge for the Cavalry roster.
   The Aussie League is a haven for pitchers who topped out at AA - veteran types who know how to get hitters out with more than pure velocity, but lack something in their arsenal to allow them to progress further. After he gave up on college football to focus on baseball last September, the Blue Jays sent Anthony Alford to the league for a crash course in pitch recognition.  The backwards-pitching veteran Aussie hurlers made life tough for Alford, but his breakthrough season this year is not a coincidence, and was very much a product of his struggles in Australia.  There is no Alford amongst this year's group that will be crossing the Pacific, but there is some promise.  Here's a brief summary of each.

OF Derrick Loveless
 The left-hand hitting Loveless is possibly the best potential bat heading to Australia, but he struggled with Dunedin this year.  The 2011 27th rounder has been a one step at a time guy up the minor league ladder, and looked to be putting things together with a .753 OPS season at Lansing, but he took a bit of a step back in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League this year, hitting .216/321/.345.  Still, he hit 10 Home Runs in a league that's tough to put up double-digit totals. There was concern that a strained shoulder would keep Loveless stateside, but the most recent word is that he will be making the trip.

IF/OF David Harris
   Personal bias alert:  I've been a fan of the 2013 36th round pick since I saw him play in his first season at Vancouver.  In one game, playing 2nd Base, he made a pair of impressive plays in one inning - on one, he had to dodge a runner on 1st heading to 2nd in order to field a slow roller to just nip the hitter at 1st.  Two batters later, he ranged far down the 1st base line to snare a dying quail of a pop-up off the bat of a right hand hitter.   Harris was drafted as an org guy, and he's filled that role to a "T", playing a multitude of positions effectively.  He split time between Lansing and Dunedin this year, and had more success at the former, hitting .280/.333/.427 for the Lugnuts.  His versatility should come in handy for Canberra.

IF Jason Leblebijian
   Like Harris, the 2012 25th rounder can play a variety of positions, but is probably most adept at Shortstop.  He hit .277/.345/.473 at Lansing, but struggled at Dunedin.  He likely will play multiple positions with Canberra

P Phil Kish
   The veteran reliever saved 15 games between Vancouver and Lansing last year, but struggled in 2015.  He's clearly here to get in some extra work.

P Colton Turner
 Turner missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and came back with Lansing as a reliever this year, pitching in 31 games.

  As a post-script, I should add that I thought that C Danny Jansen, who missed significant time for the second straight year, might be Australia-bound.  With those veteran pitchers, perhaps a more experienced hand like Murphy was needed, and Canberra already had local boy Robbie Perkins, who played in the Sally League for Colorado's affiliate this year on the roster.  Perkins will probably head to the outfield with Murphy in camp now.

 The ABL and MLB originally signed a 5 year agreement prior to the 2010-11 season (each campaign starts in late October, and ends in late February), and it expired prior to this season.   Attendance has been for the most part low since the league's inception (outside of Perth and Canberra, mostly), and this past week, both the Chief Executive of the ABL and MLB's Director of Australia and Oceania were fired.  There are some who think that these were moves that have to be made, as a change of direction was needed to grow the league. There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the ABL as its Opening Day approaches.


  Other Blue Jays farmhands playing winter ball include:
Dominican League:  Bobby Korecky, Andy Fermin, Richard Urena, Melky Mesa, Luis Santos
Mexican League:  Jorge Flores
Venezuelan League:  Andrew Albers, Casey Lawrence, Gabriel Cenas, Michael Lee, Miguel Burgos, Gregory Infante, Austen Bibens-Dirx, Jonathan Torres

Puerto Rican League rosters are not up yet, but it's a safe bet that Dickie Joe Thon and A.J. Jimenez will be on one.

   It will also be interesting to see how Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos re-tools the major league roster after this season is over.  With his farm system all but bare save for a few prospects like Alford and Tellez he wouldn't give up at the trade deadline, it's hard to see him pull off a deal involving a player with the stature of Josh Donaldson.  Will he be bold, and work in the reverse direction, dealing a high-profile everyday player for futures?  That seems unlikely - it's hard to see him wanting to alter this lineup beyond some minor tweaking.  One thing is certain:  the club has emptied the system once before, and is confident in its ability to re-stock it.

Clutchlings Notebook: Week 1

   Mother Nature had a bit of a say in things, but otherwise the first weekend of the minor league season could not have gone much better for Toronto Blue Jays affiliates.

   Dunedin's Jairo Labourt got things rolling with 5 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball for Dunedin, and Mitch Nay, Dawel Lugo, and Matt Dean all went deep as the D-Jays opened their Florida State League season with a victory over Clearwater on Thursday.

  That set the stage for several more impressive pitching performances on Friday.  Matt Boyd, who got a taste of major league action in Montreal the weekend before, struck out 9 over 4.1 innings for New Hampshire, giving up 3 hits, no runs, and walked only one as the Fisher Cats topped New Britain to start the season.  Boyd and relievers Danny Barnes, Luis Perez, Blake McFarland combined to strike out 17 Rock Cats.  Meanwhile, in Lansing, Chase De Jong also struck out 9 over 4.2 innings in leading the Lugnuts to an Opening Day win over Lake County.
  Lansing had yet another solid start on Saturday from Starlyn Suriel, who contributed 5 innings of scoreless, 1-hit ball, along with 8 K's in a 3-2 win over Lake County in the first game of a doubleheader. Suriel retired the first 11 hitters he faced before allowing a two out walk in the 4th.  In game two, Shane Dawson, who hadn't pitched since last July, threw 5 solid innings, but took the loss as Lansing fell 2-1.  Dawson gave up a pair of hits, walked one and struck out 6, with the only blemish on an otherwise great outing a two-run homer he gave up in the 4th.  Newly acquired Jayson Aquino also tossed five solid innings for Dunedin on Saturday.  To round things out, Scott Copeland threw 7 scoreless innings for Buffalo, surrendering just one hit and one walk for the Bisons.
  Adding that up, I get six high quality starts for the organization in 24 hours.

   On Sunday, the organization went 4-5, as Buffalo, Dunedin, and Lansing all recorded victories, while New Hampshire split a twin bill.  Randy Wolf walked a bit of a tightrope early on, but spun five scoreless innings for Buffalo, and a quartet of relievers helped the Bisons shut out Rochester.
   New Hampshire lost that first game to New Britain, but a trio of pitchers led the Fisher Cats to victory in the 2nd game to shut out the Rock Cats.  Danny Barnes struck out 4 over 2 innings of relief work to earn the save.
   Dunedin's offence woke up to lead the D-Jays to victory over Clearwater, with Matt Dean, Andy Fermin, and David Harris contributing two hits each.  Harris also belted his first home run of the season.  Tiago da Silva, the well-travelled Brazilian reliever, pitched a pair of innings in relief.
And Lansing rode some timely hitting to tie their game against Fort Wayne up in the 9th, then won it in the 10th.

   Lastly, Gail Dull is a Phillies fan who lives in Dunedin.  She writes a great blog, full of photos and coverage of minor league baseball, primarily the Florida State League's Clearwater Threshers.  She lives about four blocks away from the D-Jays home Florida Auto Exchange Stadium, which makes me extremely envious, because if the Gods and Toronto drivers are willing, I'm two hours door to door from my house to the Rogers Centre.  She was kind enough to send along some samples of her work:

RHP Luis Santos, who has pitched in the Pirates and Royals organizations prior to signing with Toronto this year:

@BaseballBetsy photo

A rehabbing Michael Saunders up to bat against Clearwater:

@BaseballBetsy photo

Speedy outfielder Roemon Fields:

@BaseballBetsy photo

Fields watches pitcher Brad Allen's delivery.

@BaseballBetsy photo