The Blue Jays have had a very successful partnership with the Canberra Cavalry, one of the few profitable teams in the loop. Former Jays farmhand C Jack Murphy was the ABL MVP and led the Cavalry to the ABL title, as well as an Asia Series Championship in 2013-14. The lessons the backwards-pitching veteran ABL pitchers taught Anthony Alford about pitch recognition last year helped to contribute to his breakout stateside season in 2015. This year, 2B David Harris, and SS Jason Leblebijian, who both split time with Lansing and Dunedin, have been the offensive leaders as the Cavs sit 2nd to Brisbane, and have a post-season series with Adelaide starting next weekend. Harris leads the league in hitting, while Leblebijian is tied for the lead in RBI.
The original ABL ran from 1989-1999, but folded as many of the outfit's teams were awash in a sea of red ink, and there were problems distributing talent evenly. The loop was briefly re-established shortly after the turn of the century, and was resuscitated once again in 2009, with MLB taking on a 75% ownership stake, with Baseball Australia taking on the other quarter. Some of the teams have been successful in gaining local sponsorships, but questions about the league's future began about a year ago, when MLB's original five-year commitment was about the expire.
The start of the ABL season in late October was marked with controversy when CEO Peter Wermuth was abruptly fired on the eve of the season opener. A permanent replacement still has yet to be named, with Baseball Australia head Brett Pickett acting as spokesperson. Few tears were shed at Wermuth's dismissal, however, as Aussie fans had grown impatient with his failure to grow the league over his five-year tenure.
The ABL is crucial to the development of the sport down under, but it ranks far down the list of the average Aussie's favourite sport. A quick scan of the Canberra Times is a challenge if you're looking for baseball stories. Cricket, Australian Rules Football, Soccer, and Women's Basketball appear to far outpace baseball in terms of popularity. Attendance figures are not published with league box scores, and while Canberra and Perth seem to be well-supported, there are scores of empty seats at the home parks of the other four teams.
Clouding the ABL's future is Pickett's admission that MLB is looking to reduce its majority stake in the league, but he insists that there will be a 2016-17 ABL season. The league is looking for corporate partners in North America, Asia, and Australia to give the league a fresh injection of capital. According to Pickett, there is no timetable for the MLB to reduce their stake in the league. In the short term, there will be an ABL, but the long-term outlook is less than clear. MLB, in their original agreement with Baseball Australia, signed on for a five-year term. With that coming to a close, MLB is clearly not optimistic about the league's future, and was growing tired of subsidizing a money-losing operation.
With relations between the USA and Cuba continuing to thaw, there has been considerable speculation that MLB may shift their focus in that direction. Cuba would certainly be closer for organizations to keep an eye on their prospects, although there is nothing imminent between the island nation and MLB. For Australian baseball fans, it's been a fun time, but it appears that there aren't enough of them to make this league viable.
From a Blue Jays perspective, it's hard to say how the club feels about these developments. On the one hand, no Blue Jay prospect who was sent to Australia has played in the majors (former Cavs Didi Gregorius and Kevin Kiermaier have), but aside from Alford, the club has sent no top-level prospects to the ABL. But the league does fill a developmental niche for the club: Alford did not play against top-level high school competition in his native Mississippi, and because of his college football commitment, had amassed just over 100 PAs in his first three minor league seasons. The ABL was like summer school for the toolsy outfielder, and it's doubtful he's a top 100 prospect now without that catch-up experience. The ABL also can give players like Colton Turner and Phil Kish a chance to make up for innings lost because of injury, and if nothing else for org guys like Harris and Leblebijian, it can accelerate their development to the point where they could become very serviceable depth pieces in the upper minors. A personal note about Harris - I saw the 2013 36th rounder (out of Southern Arkansas) in his rookie season with Vancouver, where he made a pair of athletic plays in a July game. Playing 2nd Base, Harris had to sidestep a runner advancing from first while he charged a 1st inning slow roller, which he fielded cleanly and threw across his body to nip the batter at 1st. Several innings later, he ranged far down the right field line to grab an opposite-field flare that threatened to drop in. A fixture at the top of the Cavalry batting order, Harris has played CF for Canberra this year, demonstrating his multi-position versatility. I've watched his career very closely since that night at The Nat, the home of the Vancouver Canadians.
All things being equal, it's likely that while the Jays are supportive of the ABL, if there was an opportunity one day to have their farmhands play winter ball closer to home, where the cost of transporting and housing them would be cheaper, they would welcome it. While the players they've sent have for the most part not Top 10 guys, they have sent many players who have made a significant impact for the Cavalry.
It just seems appropriate to include a Murphy Walk Off HR to conclude this piece:
The minor league season has been over for six weeks now, but that doesn't mean an end to baseball activity for prospects.
Instructional League play has been taking place in both Florida and Arizona since late September. Organizations invite their top prospects (most of them from the lower levels) for further instruction and refinement. The Blue Jays hold their Instructs camp at their Dunedin complex - prospects work on skills in the morning, then play games in the afternoon against other minor league instructional league teams from the area.
News from Instructs can be sketchy. I do have a couple of Florida-based sources who have updated me on the progress of several prospects. Stats are barely kept, and they can be misleading, as prospects are trying to put newly learned skills into game use. Former Jays greats George Bell and Ernie Whitt were on hand to help with the instruction - Whitt, who managed Canada to an incredible Gold Medal win at the Pan Am Games, will be once again guiding a Canadian team this fall. This time, the former Catcher will lead the senior men's team at the International Baseball Federation's Premier 12 tournament in Taiwan. This tournament involves the top ten ranked baseball countries in the world (Canada sits at 7th), and opens November 8th. I'm still waiting to find out about Canada's roster, but we do know at this point that Justin Atkinson, who started the year at Lansing, and finished at Vancouver, will be on it. The 5th year pro, a 26th round pick out of North Surrey (BC) HS, can catch and play the corner infield positions. He will be called upon to be a back up at all three of those spots at this tournament. Canada plays 3rd ranked Cuba in their opening game.
We also know that Vladimir Guerrero Jr, the top ranked international free agent signed this past July, has turned a lot of heads with his power. His first Home Run was described by Eddie Michels of Rocket Sports, a Tampa-based web broadcaster:
The shot was hit so high to left field at the Blue Jays Mattick Complex that it landed on the concrete walkway behind the 30-foot screen then bounced about half way over the clubhouse landing on the roof.
Guerrero hit another homer a day later, and this time my friend and frequent photo contributor @BaseballBetsy was there to capture it:
Guerrero will probably play stateside in the GCL next year - he may not start there, but he likely will finish. Despite his bat, the biggest challenge he faces is rebuilding his potentially high-maintenance body. I would really like to see him embrace a better conditioning routine and diet. Much has been made already of Guerrero not having the all around game like his father did, and while 1st Base will be his likely destination one day, it would give the organization more flexibility if Jr can change his body and develop some improved agility.
Even though Instructional League play has wound down, there is still baseball being played somewhere.
And one of those places is Arizona, where the Arizona Fall League began play this week. The AFL is a chance for teams to give their top prospects additional experience playing against elite competition. The Blue Jays have sent several players to suit up for the Salt River Rafters river (rafting apparently is a big thing in the Phoenix area): pitchers Justin Shafer, Chad Girodo and Brady Dragmire, as well as speedy OF Roemon Fields, IF/OF Emilio Guerrero, and 1B/DH Rowdy Tellez. P Jeremy Gabryszwski was a late addition to the roster. This may not be as talented a group as others the Blue Jays have sent to the Southwest, but the bundle of prospects they gave up in July may be to blame for that. Tellez is a masher who made it to High A in his third pro season, and is 4-8, with a HR and 8 RBI in his first two games. Girodo is a submarining lefty who to me has a shot at unseating Aaron Loup as the first southpaw up in the bullpen if not next year, then definitely in 2017. His delivery makes him extremely tough on left-handed hitters. And we received word earlier this week that the Blue Jays have named the group of prospects who will be making the trip down under to play in the Australian Baseball League. Toronto has had a partnership with the Canberra Cavalry, who have been reasonably competitive in the loop, which is designed to promote the game and give homegrown talent a chance to play. It also gives MLB prospects a chance to accelerate their development, and it often gives players who were let go by a major league organization to showcase themselves for other teams. David Polkinghorne, who covers the Cavalry for the Canberra Times, says that while the league is important for Aussie baseball, the game sits "well behind cricket (our national summer sport), and in Canberra it sits just ahead of soccer and women's basketball," in terms of popularity.
The ABL relies heavily on MLB for players and financial support. The Australian Government and a handful of Aussie corporations contribute to the league's operating expenses as well. Polkinghorne says that possibly only Canberra and perennial contender Perth are financially viable on their own.
The league has an import rule that dictates that at least 5 players in the 10-man on-field lineup must be Aussies. That rule cost Canberra a game last year, when Australian OF Adam Silva was hit by a pitch in the 6th inning of a game and couldn't continue, and the Cavs had no homegrown replacement on the bench. The easiest way around this rule, of course, is to have top-level (that is to say, MLB-owned) native talent on your roster, but the distribution of strong amatuer program in Australia is uneven, and most Aussie MLB prospects prefer to play for their hometowns, meaning that teams like Canberra, that don't have a good amateur organizations in their area, as Polkinghorne says, get "players the other states don't want."
There's extensive video coverage of the ABL on their website. There are limited camera angles, and the Aussie commentary is a bit different to North American ears, but it's a good opportunity to watch some of these and other prospects.
One of Canberra's favourite Blue Jays farmhands, C Jack Murphy, was dealt to the Dodgers in the Darwin Barney deal, was a hero in the nation's capital, returning year after year, and leading the Cavs to an ABL title in 2013, as well as an Asia Series championship, a competition for Asian club teams. Murphy originally declined Canberra's offer to return, but changed his mind this past week. Because he has played more than two consecutive seasons in the ABL, he doesn't count as an import. That could be huge for the Cavalry roster.
The Aussie League is a haven for pitchers who topped out at AA - veteran types who know how to get hitters out with more than pure velocity, but lack something in their arsenal to allow them to progress further. After he gave up on college football to focus on baseball last September, the Blue Jays sent Anthony Alford to the league for a crash course in pitch recognition. The backwards-pitching veteran Aussie hurlers made life tough for Alford, but his breakthrough season this year is not a coincidence, and was very much a product of his struggles in Australia. There is no Alford amongst this year's group that will be crossing the Pacific, but there is some promise. Here's a brief summary of each.
OF Derrick Loveless The left-hand hitting Loveless is possibly the best potential bat heading to Australia, but he struggled with Dunedin this year. The 2011 27th rounder has been a one step at a time guy up the minor league ladder, and looked to be putting things together with a .753 OPS season at Lansing, but he took a bit of a step back in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League this year, hitting .216/321/.345. Still, he hit 10 Home Runs in a league that's tough to put up double-digit totals. There was concern that a strained shoulder would keep Loveless stateside, but the most recent word is that he will be making the trip.
IF/OF David Harris Personal bias alert: I've been a fan of the 2013 36th round pick since I saw him play in his first season at Vancouver. In one game, playing 2nd Base, he made a pair of impressive plays in one inning - on one, he had to dodge a runner on 1st heading to 2nd in order to field a slow roller to just nip the hitter at 1st. Two batters later, he ranged far down the 1st base line to snare a dying quail of a pop-up off the bat of a right hand hitter. Harris was drafted as an org guy, and he's filled that role to a "T", playing a multitude of positions effectively. He split time between Lansing and Dunedin this year, and had more success at the former, hitting .280/.333/.427 for the Lugnuts. His versatility should come in handy for Canberra.
IF Jason Leblebijian Like Harris, the 2012 25th rounder can play a variety of positions, but is probably most adept at Shortstop. He hit .277/.345/.473 at Lansing, but struggled at Dunedin. He likely will play multiple positions with Canberra
P Phil Kish The veteran reliever saved 15 games between Vancouver and Lansing last year, but struggled in 2015. He's clearly here to get in some extra work.
P Colton Turner Turner missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and came back with Lansing as a reliever this year, pitching in 31 games.
As a post-script, I should add that I thought that C Danny Jansen, who missed significant time for the second straight year, might be Australia-bound. With those veteran pitchers, perhaps a more experienced hand like Murphy was needed, and Canberra already had local boy Robbie Perkins, who played in the Sally League for Colorado's affiliate this year on the roster. Perkins will probably head to the outfield with Murphy in camp now.
The ABL and MLB originally signed a 5 year agreement prior to the 2010-11 season (each campaign starts in late October, and ends in late February), and it expired prior to this season. Attendance has been for the most part low since the league's inception (outside of Perth and Canberra, mostly), and this past week, both the Chief Executive of the ABL and MLB's Director of Australia and Oceania were fired. There are some who think that these were moves that have to be made, as a change of direction was needed to grow the league. There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the ABL as its Opening Day approaches.
Other Blue Jays farmhands playing winter ball include:
Dominican League: Bobby Korecky, Andy Fermin, Richard Urena, Melky Mesa, Luis Santos
Mexican League: Jorge Flores
Venezuelan League: Andrew Albers, Casey Lawrence, Gabriel Cenas, Michael Lee, Miguel Burgos, Gregory Infante, Austen Bibens-Dirx, Jonathan Torres
Puerto Rican League rosters are not up yet, but it's a safe bet that Dickie Joe Thon and A.J. Jimenez will be on one.
It will also be interesting to see how Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos re-tools the major league roster after this season is over. With his farm system all but bare save for a few prospects like Alford and Tellez he wouldn't give up at the trade deadline, it's hard to see him pull off a deal involving a player with the stature of Josh Donaldson. Will he be bold, and work in the reverse direction, dealing a high-profile everyday player for futures? That seems unlikely - it's hard to see him wanting to alter this lineup beyond some minor tweaking. One thing is certain: the club has emptied the system once before, and is confident in its ability to re-stock it.
One of the great ironies of spring training is that while fans who can't make the journey to Florida or Arizona can still keep close tabs on their teams thanks to the plethora of reporters and media outlets, it's hard to find out what's going on in Minor League camp unless you have some sources on the "inside," - or at least something close to it.
Nonetheless, there still is some news coming out of Minor League camp.
Today, we learned that Anthony Alford and Jack Murphy had been reassigned from the big club's camp, joining Dwight Smith, Jr, and Mitch Nay, who had been sent down earlier.
Through the magic of live streaming, I was able to watch Alford's debut against the Orioles:
Speaking of Alford, there was a good article about him on ESPN.com. While it didn't provide much that we didn't already know, there were some good insights into Alford's reaction to having to go to Ole Miss Head Coach Hugh Frazee to tell him he was giving up football for baseball. And we hadn't thought about the Bo Jackson comparison the article made, but it kind of makes sense. He was overmatched at times against the higher level pitching he faced this spring, but he wasn't sent to big league camp to earn a job, but to soak up the atmosphere, and learn from major leaguers like Jose Bautista. Those of us diehard fans who stayed tuned to the Blue Jays games earlier this month after the regulars had been removed from the lineup got a glimpse of his athleticism and speed. When asked about who impressed him the most at major league camp, he replied without hesitation, "Bautista and Donaldson."
Some other news and tidbits:
-Matt Boyd tested out his surgically cleaned-out elbow earlier this week, and pronounced it fully healed.
-Clinton Hollon, who had Tommy John surgery a month ago, was throwing well in bullpen sessions, and is scheduled to return to competition in late April or early May. The 2013 2nd rounder hit 95 with his fastball prior to the surgery. If you're looking for a sleeper breakout candidate this year, he may be the one.
-Canadian Justin Atkinson is being converted to catcher. The 2011 26th rounder hit well in Lansing last year, and it will be interesting to see where he's assigned to start the year.
-Lane Thomas, a steal of a 5th round pick last year who opened a lot of eyes, has been taking reps at second base so far in minor league camp.
-the Buffalo Bisons began minor league spring training today, and have a slate of games against Dunedin/Clearwater teams.
-via Chis King of Baseball Prospectus (@StatsKing on Twitter), who watched the Blue Jays minor leaguers play against Puerto Rico yesterday, we had good reports on Catcher Matt Morgan's footwork, and Sean Reid-Foley's nasty slider. Angel Perdomo started the game for the Blue Jays, and was squared up a bit in the first, but straightened things out in the second.
-there are some nice prospect profiles (mostly Blue Jays) coming out of Dunedin, via the Toronto Observer, by students at Toronto's Centennial College J-School that make for good reading. The trip to spring training is part of the course of study for their fast-track journalism program - many Ontario colleges now offer similar courses. The program is open to college or university grads.
By now, you all are familiar with the lights-out springs Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna have had. Neither has been scored upon yet, and both were featured in the Blue Jays win over the Yankees on Tuesday night. Castro was all but unhittable, retiring 8 straight Yankees in his outing, while Osuna was hit hard on a couple of occasions, but escaped a pair of threats unscathed. Castro has shown a vastly improved change up, which would be a devastating weapon paired with his electric fastball - in relief.
I've made my feelings known about both. Castro is only 20, pitched 80 innings last year, and has thrown all of 8 innings above Low A. Osuna is the same age, is 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and has thrown 23 innings at High A. Both would benefit from more time in the minors, in order to build up arm strength and develop their secondary pitches. Castro, in particular, has pitched even better than he did last year, but the second half of spring training is where it counts, as teams pare down their rosters, and hitters begin to get their timing down.
I would prefer both return to the minors, starting at Dunedin until the weather warms up, and then on to New Hampshire, and who knows? Castro would be pitching in almost exclusively high leverage situations if he pitched out of the Blue Jays bullpen, and Osuna still needs to be treated with care - he's almost out of the woods, but not quite. Just look at Kyle Drabek, who is in a life and death struggle to make this team, almost three years after this second Tommy John. And for those who have forgotten, Drabek was the Blue Jays top prospect two years running prior to 2012. They paid a heavy price in acquiring him, and they paid a similarly high one in the form of the $1.5 million signing bonus they gave Osuna.
But I'm not facing an expiring contract, and the spectre of a new boss, and the longest playoff drought in baseball like Alex Anthopoulos is. Castro is looking more and more like the one who will stick - most of the hitters Osuna faced won't likely be playing in the majors next month. If they do take Castro north with them, the Blue Jays will have to treat his young arm very carefully. And is that worth the risk? We all know the importance of the bullpen, but the top-ranked bullpen in the game last year was beaten by the 28th-ranked team. And the teams with the 24th, 26th, and 27th ranked bullpens made it to the playoffs as well. The top 10 bullpens produced the same number of playoff teams. The reason for this, of course, is simple: there are other aspects, like a strong starting rotation, or a run-producing offence, that are just as important - if not moreso - than a bullpen. Will Castro make that much of a difference? Would we rather not have him pitch about 140 innings as a starter next year, as opposed to maybe 80-90 as a reliever this year? The top-ranked reliever, in terms of WAR (Baseball-Reference's model) ranked 28th overall among MLB pitchers last year, and there was a grand total of 5 relief pitchers in the top 50.
Only the Blue Jays brain trust knows for sure.
The Canberra Elite Cavalry topped the Sydney Blue Sox 7-2 on Sunday, to wrap up their Australian Baseball League schedule. The Cavalry had the same won-loss record as the Sox, but Sydney gained the last ABL playoff spot by virtue of a better head-to-head record with Canberra, which was all but sealed when they took 5 of the first 6 games of the season from the Cavalry.
The Blue Jays sent four players to Canberra, including fan favourite C Jack Murphy, back for his third stint with the Cavalry, and first timers 2B Christian Lopes, 1B LB Dantzler, and OF Anthony Alford. Lopes tore up the league, hitting .371/.421/.581, including a batting average of .450 over his last 10 games, before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury with three rounds left to go in the regular season. His injury left a huge hole in the Canberra lineup as they battled for that final playoff spot. The veteran Murphy was his usual dangerous down under self, hitting .353/.413/.542, providing leadership and deft handling of the Cavalry pitching staff. Dantzler was just starting to come around at the plate until back and hip injuries sidelined him for the final month, and he wound up hitting .267/.316/.425.
The player most Blue Jays fans wanted to see was Alford. The toolsy outfielder abruptly gave up college football for baseball in late September, and was sent to Australia to make up for lost playing time. Alford has just over 100 plate appearance as a pro, spread out over three abbreviated minor league seasons, and his inexperience showed against the mostly veteran pitching in the ABL, hitting .207/.327/.319, along with 9 stolen bases in 11 attempts.
We had a chance to speak with Alford as league play was wrapping up this weekend. Considering that other than brief trips to Florida for extended spring training (after spring football ended), Alford probably hasn't been out of Mississippi that much, let alone travel to the other side of the world, so we asked him how he found living in a foreign country. "It was very nice experience playing here in Australia," he observed. "The only adjustment I really had to make was driving on the other side of the road."
We noticed that Alford didn't get a whole lot of strikes to swing at as the season progressed. The veteran ABL pitchers fed him a steady diet of breaking balls on the outer half of the plate, followed by fastballs on the inner half. Alford agreed, and suggested that he was partly to blame for putting himself into bad counts:
The pitching wasn't really overpowering. You were right, I saw a lot of breaking balls and fastballs out of the zone. I put myself in a bad situation a lot of times by being too aggressive. But they did do a good job of mixing pitches up on me. Most of the guys I faced had at least 6 or 7 years of experience on me.
With all of 25 PA's above rookie ball in his career, Alford likely had never faced pitching on a level with what he faced in Australia. Even though many commented that the quality of pitching was down this year in the league compared to other years, most of the pitchers in the league rely on pitching smarts and their breaking stuff far more than pitchers in rookie ball do. Still, Alford was upbeat about the experience he gained:
I really just came over here to learn and get caught up as much as I can. I wasn't really worried about the stats. I know they will come. This experience definitely benefited me in a lot of good ways. I've learned that the pitchers over here don't pitch like the pitchers in the states. It's like they pitch you backwards here.
When we asked him what part of his game he was most pleased with as a result of his Australian experience, he came up with the answer quickly:
I was more pleased with my improvement on defense. It's like I'm a totally different person on defense from the time I first got here and where I am at now. But I definitely need to keep getting at bats and be consistent with my approach at the plate.
As the ABL season ends, Alford and his Blue Jays teammates will be heading back home. Alford will have about a month to rest and get ready for the upcoming season, and told us that he reports for spring training on February 26th. It will be interesting to see how this experience benefits him. Our bet would be that it will be in the form of improved pitch recognition. Even against the advanced competition, and despite his occasional aggressiveness, Alford had a walk rate of 12% - still not good enough for a leadoff hitter, but impressive considering his resume to this point. It will also be interesting to see where Alford is assigned after spring training. Our initial thoughts had him starting with Dunedin, but he may need to at least start the season in Lansing - which is good news to those of us in Southern Ontario, who were about to scrap our travel plans after Franklin Barreto was dealt.
We also had a chance to correspond with David Polkinghorne (@Super_Couch on Twitter), who covers the Cavalry for the Canberra Times. In light of the injuries suffered by Lopes and Dantzler, and given some of the concerns expressed by Murphy about the import rule, we have to wonder if the Blue Jays are all that thrilled about sending their prospects to Australia. Polkinghorne's response:
I guess injuries are injuries and could happen anywhere. The import rule doesn't really take away playing time from the Jays players as they're given preference in selection, it's unaffiliated guys like (Canberra IF Marcus) Lemon who miss out on playing time. So the ABL is no longer a way for American guys to get back into the MLB system. Lots of people feel it has lowered the standard of play this season though which might make MLB clubs hesitant about sending guys down under. The Cavs are a lot weaker this season but that is partly recruiting on their behalf as well.
All in all, the ABL was entertaining to watch this winter. Listening to commentary from the Aussie television guys was fun - they don't take things too seriously, and make observations like, "I reckon that pitch was about 75." The live stream was much more reliable this year, and the highlights on the ABL YouTube channel were updated regularly. It's interesting to see the variance in stadium facilities from one city to another - some are obviously makeshift diamonds on cricket grounds, while others are not that far removed from parks in the low minors in the U.S.
With play in the Australian Baseball League, a loop designed to give some added reps to MLB prospects, and to give homegrown players a chance to develop, heading into the final month of its season, we thought we would take a look at how several Blue Jays prospects are faring, and examine some general issues with the league.
Blue Jays Prospects The player everyone is asking about is CF Anthony Alford. And that's understandable, given that the 2012 draftee was labelled a 3rd round pick with 1st round talent, but dropped in the draft due to his commitment to college football.
For the past three seasons stateside, Alford has reported to extended spring training after school (and spring football camp) had ended, and then was assigned to a short season team for several weeks of play before returning to school in early August. The Blue Jays tried to convince Alford to give up the gridiron this summer, and after initially spurning their contract extension, he agreed to switch to the diamond in late September. As a result of his truncated baseball experience over the past three years, Alford has been limited to 107 plate appearances, only 25 of them at the full season level.
Anthony Alford photo - @ajalfor1
As might be expected, Alford has struggled at the plate against the more experienced pitching in the ABL.
One of the youngest players in the league, Alford has posted a line of .206/.325/.309, and is hitting only .179 over his last 10 games. His 35 strikeouts are tied for the league lead, and his 32% K ratio is a concern. Pitch recognition was a problem earlier in the ABL season for Alford, but he has started to work the count more often. Our viewing of his AB's over the past weekend showed that the opposition was giving him a steady diet of breaking balls on the outer half of the plate, and fastballs low on the inside part. Alford was doing a better job of laying off the breaking balls, but swung at several fastballs outside of the zone, resulting in weak groundball contact. Word obviously has gotten around the league, and Alford isn't being thrown a whole lot of strikes.
When he has shown some patience, and has attacked pitches in the strike zone, Alford is starting to drive the ball better, and is getting some more line drive type contact. We can't find a stat for it, but Alford has to be among the league leaders in hit by pitches. Ordinarily, that might be indicative of a player who crowds the plate, but we think it's more of a reflection of Aussie pitchers pounding him with those inside fastballs. Alford has worked on his bunting, and it has paid off, as he has dropped a number of successful ones along the third base line, and the 3rd baseman in almost every situation has had no chance to get him at 1st.
On the basepaths, Alford's speed can be a distraction, but it hasn't translated into huge SB totals. Again, veteran pitchers know how to hold runners on, and the Canberra coaching staff likely prefers Alford to pick his spots. Alford is tied for the league lead in runs, which granted is sometimes more of a reflection of the hitters behind him in the lineup, but to us, it shows that Alford is getting on base (not as much as we would like for a leadoff hitter, but at a better rate than we had expected), and is using both his speed and baserunning smarts to get into scoring position. He made a heads up play over the weekend and impressed us. Taking his lead from 2nd, Alford froze for a second as Christian Lopes hit a weak chopper to the 3rd baseman, who didn't look over at him before he threw to 1st, and Alford alertly took 3rd as a result.
In the outfield Alford has made some highlight reel plays. He also booted a fairly routine flyball that led to a run in his last game. He shows good reaction to the ball, and a strong arm here:
The Blue Jays likely expected Alford to have some struggles at this level. The experience of playing every day from Thursday to Sunday, and having to cope with travel and adjusting to life in a country that's just a little bit different from living in America is probably just as important. We're sure the Blue Jays would rather his first 100 AB-season had come in the GCL two years ago, and not against pitchers who have a plan.
Christian Lopes, IF Lopes was a 7th round pick in the 2011 draft, and was a fairly high profile high school player.
We wonder if he would have been better going the collegiate route, because his numbers after 4 minor league seasons are those of an org guy's: .251/.321/.367.
Something about the Southern Hemisphere has agreed with Lopes, however, and next to Jack Murphy, he has been Canberra's most consistent threat, hitting .343/.384/.471.
Lopes has a compact stance at the plate, and puts the ball in play, striking out only 8 times in 110 PA's (he doesn't walk a whole lot, either). The pop has not been there, but the ABL seems to be more of a groundball pitcher league, and Canberra's home stadium, Narrabundah Park, is a tough home run place, with LF and RF lines 330 feet down the line, and has the usual high Milb outfield walls:
Austadium.com
Just the same, Lopes has been a pleasant surprise, and while he's been off the Top Prospects radar for a while now, his Australian experience will set him up nicely for AA.
Jack Murphy, C Something happens to Murphy in the rarefied air over the Pacific Ocean on the flight to Australia every fall. He turns from a Crash Davis-type career light-hitting (.230/.310/.373) journeyman catcher to one of the most feared hitters in the ABL.
This is Murph's 3rd go at playing down under, and he continues to mash, hitting .356/.417/.545 this year.
According to David Polkinghorne, who covers Canberra for Canberra Times Sport, Murphy is a beloved figure in the Nation's Capital because of past heroics. He led the Cavalry to the Claxon Shield, emblematic of ABL supremacy, in 2013, and hit a key grand slam to lead them to victory in the now-defunct Asian Championship tournament.
Murphy is a big guy (6'4", 230), and looks downright menacing at the plate. Polkinghorne lauds his leadership abilities, and calls him, "a true leader of the team both at and behind the plate."
The obvious question is how a guy who has always been a minor league back up turn into Mike Piazza when he crosses the International Dateline? It likely has everything to do with the quality of pitching in the league. Many of the veteran types have breaking balls the likes of which younger players like Alford have never seen before, but not the velocity to get players out who have the patience to lay off pitches outside of the strike zone. The younger ABL pitchers tend to have less control, so they eventually have to give in to hitters who are willing to wait them out.
Murphy is a great handler of pitchers, and likely has been a good mentor to the younger players on the team. He seems to have a place to play as long as he wants to.
LB Dantzler, 1B The 2013 14th rounder was the Northwest League's MVP that year, but struggled in his first try at full season ball, hitting .245/.328/.361 between Lansing and Dunedin.
His struggles at the plate continued through his first month in Australia, but he appears to have started to figure things out, hitting .293 over his last 10 games.
Like Lopes, Dantzler puts the ball in play. His swing tends to get a little long at times, but he's hit several towering home runs.
The Import Rule Canberra is currently in a three-way battle for the ABL's final playoff spot. If they come up short by a game, they can point to a game before Christmas as the culprit.
The Cavalry and Brisbane were tied at 4 before Canberra exploded for 7 runs in the top of the 13th to secure a victory. Or so they thought.
The import rule dictates that an ABL team have at least 5 Aussies in the 10-man lineup at all times. When outfielder and homebrew Adam Silva was hit by a pitch in the 6th inning and couldn't continue, Canberra Manager Michael Collins was faced with a dilemma. The only available Aussie on the roster was pitcher Wayne Ough. Collins, perhaps mindful of when Adelaide broke the quota in a game against the Cavalry last year and only received a fine, took a chance, and substituted American OF Alex Hudak in the lineup.
The league decided to take the victory away from Canberra, much to the surprise and frustration of Murphy. He told Polkinghorne that the only reason US players had become an issue was because Canberra won the league title in 2013 with a number of them in the lineup, which caused other clubs to complain. The import rule was at two players at that time, and has now risen to 5. And that's not good for the game, says Murphy:
"(The ABL) should be more focused on putting the best possible product on the field from a baseball standpoint. Isn't that what people come to see? They pay to watch these games because they feel they're watching the best possible baseball they can watch in Australia. Once (MLB) teams start to realize it's no longer a competitive environment then they're going to pull their talent from the league, and then what will be left? - you're going to be left with what you had before the ABL started."
A rule is a rule, but Murphy does raise a good point. Some teams have trouble attracting Aussie players, particularly if there is not a strong amateur baseball program in the area. Many Milb Aussie-born players prefer to play in their hometowns, not necessarily where their major league teams assign them - as Polkinghorne noted, the only MLB-affiliated local player on the Cav's roster is C Robbie Perkins, and the rest are "players the other (Aussie) states don't want". And MLB teams likely would be less than thrilled at the prospect of having playing time taken away from their players.
Just the same, the rule was put in place to help develop Australian talent. On the other side of the coin, having to put a pitcher in the lineup at any spot other than the mound makes a bit of a mockery of the game, and also increases the risk of injury to that player. The problem with any such sort of quota is that assumes a level playing field, and equal access to talent. Such is not the case in Australia, and the league needs to address this issue in the off season. As long as Aussie players can pick and choose where they play in the league, there's an uneven distribution of talent. An annual draft of native players, to us, seems like a logical step.
The Future of the ABL Unequal access to talent and unstable franchise ownership doomed the first edition of the ABL, which lasted from 1989 to 1999.
MLB and the Australian Baseball Federation re-launched the league in 2010, with MLB retaining a 75% stake in the funding of the partnership. The league owns all of the franchises, which has lent the league more stability than its previous incarnation. Sponsorship from local businesses helps to defray expenses.
The concept behind the league is to help develop Australian talent, as well as giving MLB and Asian prospects additional playing experience.
The league published attendance figures for each game in past years, but appears to have stopped the practice. From what we have seen, most parks are half full at best, meaning that attendance likely is averaging something just shy of 1 000 spectators per game. We're not sure if that makes the sport viable in the long term.
According to Polkinghorne, baseball is still very much a minor sport in Australia, ranking far behind cricket, and it probably ranks with soccer and women's basketball with the sporting public. If MLB were to pull up stakes, he notes, it would deal a serious blow to the Aussie game.
The original five year agreement MLB and the ABF signed is up for renewal after this season, and it will be interesting to see where they go from here. With the announcement by President Obama of a gradual restoration of diplomatic relations between the USA and Cuba, we wonder if the Serie Nacional, which mostly fits MLB's off season, might become the desired location for major league teams to place their prospects. It's closer, meaning that teams can keep closer tabs on their investment, and the cost of transporting players would be less. This is a scenario that is several years away, at best, though. Just the same, the ABL is at a bit of a crossroads. The direction it takes from here is dependent on how happy MLB is with their current arrangement.
The Blue Jays, for their part, have to be pleased with the arrangement. Jon Berti used a successful 2013 ALB campaign to vault himself into fringe-prospect status. Other Toronto farmhands like Michael Crouse, Kenny Wilson, and Marcus Knecht have had successful stints in the league. And Alford's struggles now will likely pay dividends when he starts full season play this year - he will be a more polished, patient hitter after this experience.
The Australian Baseball League, according to a release on its website, is "revolutionizing the way fans across Australia and around the globe will witness baseball Down Under," with live streaming of its games, and a youtube channel. Play in the ABL started yesterday, and continues until the league championship the first weekend of February. The majority of its games area played from Thursday to Saturday. The Blue Jays have had a working agreement with the Canberra Cavalry for several years now, and the relationship has been quite successful. The Jays send prospects who need additional playing time, and the Cavalry get a reasonably steady supply of players. This year, the Jays have sent perennial fan favourite (and former league MVP) catcher Jack Murphy, as well infielders LB Dantzler, and Christian Lopes. Outfielder Anthony Alford, who decided to forego his college football career, has reported to Australia, and will get an opportunity to accelerate his development with the Cavalry. Every one of the Cavalry's 48-game schedule will be televised, starting with their season opener on November 6th. Canberra is 15 hours ahead of Toronto, so watching games live will mean some early morning wake up calls for Blue Jays fans.
