Toronto Blue Jays Next Ten: Top Prospects 11-20

 

Clinton Hollon
@BaseballBetsy photo

A year ago, putting my Top 10 Blue Jays prospects list was a difficult task because of the depth of the system. Putting together the Next 10 was a little bit easier - it became a repository for players who had impressed, but didn't quite make the Top 10 cut.
   This year's Next 10 list was not such an easy task.
   With the system emptied of 5 of the Top 10 prospects from my original list last fall (and 7 of the Top 20), it seems we are left with prospects whose development has stalled for one reason or another, or players who have shown promise in limited sample sizes.
   As I mentioned in the Top 10 article, the Blue Jays are not afraid to use prospects as currency to upgrade the big league roster; what we witnessed this summer is unprecedented in club history.  This fits with the "roll the dice" draft day philosophy the club has adopted in the Anthopoulos regime. The Blue Jay brain trust knew the risk they were taking by trading so many prospects, but they at the same time were banking on their ability to re-stock the system, having done this once before.

   What makes a prospect a Next 10 guy?  Usually some combination of lesser ceilings, injuries, and limited experience that makes projecting them as a top tier prospect difficult, at least at the moment. The one thing that I have learned above all else since I started following prospects a few years ago is that progress is seldom measured in a straight line.  Some prospects rocket through the system and on to the major leagues, but they are the exception and not the rule.  For some of the guys on the list, having the needle at least move forward more than it does the opposite direction is the key.  And sometimes you find nuggets:  both Sean Reid-Foley and Rowdy Tellez were near-bottom Next 10 prospects at this time last year, and climbed the ranks because the organization put them in spots where they could blossom. Their rise to the top list was not necessarily though default.  And I just didn't know enough about Devon Travis to rank him any higher, although I had a hunch he was a Top 10 player.



11.  Dwight Smith, Jr  OF
   Putting Smith in this spot is admittedly a bit of a reach, and is very reflective of his current prospect class.
   Smith's .265/.335/.376 line in his first year of AA ball was not especially impressive.  In fairness to him, he was dealing with a leg injury in May which limited his effectiveness for the next two months, and he was down for the last part of July.
  Smith emerged from his time on the shelf a different player, hitting .281/.374/.447 with 13 extra-base hits over the last month of the season, including a .333 average over the final 10 games of the season.
  Smith does not do one thing overwhelmingly well.  He's a decent hitter, but does not hit with enough power for a corner outfield spot.  He has good speed, but is not enough of a base stealer to hit at the top of the order.  Smith is a reasonably good outfielder, but doesn't have the instincts or arm to play anything other than Left Field.  The Blue Jays even experimented with him at 2nd Base in the Arizona Fall League last year, but abandoned that by spring training.
  Just the same, he has a bat that may play somewhere.  If he's healthy next year, he should be a different player at AAA.  Prior to this season, he had good offensive seasons at Lansing in 2013, and Dunedin in 2014, in leagues that are friendlier to pitchers than hitters. With Dalton Pompey and Anthony Alford well ahead of Smith at the moment, it's hard to see where he fits in the long term plans of the organization, but off-season deals could change that quickly.
  If he's not placed on the 40-man roster this fall, Smith will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft, and while it's not out of the realm of possibility for a team to take a chance on him, it seems unlikely.


12.  Justin Maese  RHP
   In keeping with the out on a limb theme, let's go with a premium athlete from an out of the way place.
   Here's what Baseball America said about Maese (say "My-AY-zee") prior to this year's draft:

Maese climbed this spring from off of draft boards into consideration for the top 10 rounds because scouts who saw him at his best saw an above-average fastball and a slider that flashed above-average. But scouts who stuck around for a few more starts saw the stuff often drop back from the 93-96 mph he showed at his best to 88-92 mph. Maese's feel for the breaking ball comes and goes and his delivery involves effort and is somewhat mechanical. But Maese has lots of arm speed and potential if he can smooth out the rough edges. He is committed to Texas Tech.

  And here's what Baseball Prospectus' Chris King was saying about him by late summer:

Justin Maese was fantastic today for the GCL #BlueJays. Locating all of his pitches. Worked the FB inside very well. CH coming along nicely

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 30, 2015

Very impressive outing from Justin Maese. Solid 3 pitch mix and strike throwing ability. Repeats well and attacks hitters #BlueJays

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 5, 2015

@Randip_23 nice looking arm. FB sits 91-93 with decent command. 2 seamer gets weak contact. SL 80-81. Just started throwing a CH last game

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 11, 2015

   El Paso, TX, is not exactly a baseball hot bed, but the Blue Jays were one of the teams that kept coming back to see the young righthander. Maese put up a record of 5-0, with a 1.01 ERA in 35 Gulf Coast innings.  In the GCL Jays semi-final, he delivered a brilliant six innings, giving up 4 hits and an earned run, while walking only 1 and striking out a career-high 10.
   It's hard to put a lot of stock in numbers posted in the GCL, but Maese's are encouraging.  The level of play in the league was above what it has been in years past.  Maese appears to be developing a four pitch arsenal - three are looking like they're right on track, and he's likely working on his slider at Instructs as you read this. Reports say his fastball touched 95 this year, and that number will likely bump up a notch or two as he matures.
   Maese obviously benefits from the lack of players above him, and we truly won't get a read on him until full-season ball, which may not be until 2017 (or late 2016) in his case.  He recently donated $6 000 to his family's church in his hometown, , which suggests good character.  Those concerns about his delivery seem to have abated, too.  This is an arm worth watching.


13.  Clinton Hollon RHP
   A cautionary tale: a young pitching prospect, a high draft choice, fails a test for a performance enhancing drug (likely an over-the-counter substance), and receives a 50-game suspension.  Even though he was given a list of approved substances, and was warned about the evils of unapproved ones -many of which have ingredient labels which can't be trusted - the prospect still went ahead and took the substance.  He expresses remorse, and claims he did not knowingly take the banned substance, but he has only himself to blame.
   Sound familiar?
  It should, because it happened to Marcus Stroman, and cost him the end of his 2012 season, and the first six weeks of 2013.  Stroman was found to have taken the stimulant methylhexaneamine, which is a short-acting stimulant slightly more powerful than a cup of coffee.  Stroman says he took the drug inadvertently, which is likely the case; methylhexaneamine is found in many popular supplements at drug stores, and chain nutritional stores like GNC.
   There is no word as to what substance Hollon has taken, except that is was an amphetamine, which fits into the stimulant category.  One of the benefits of following minor league players on Twitter is that they have the time and eagerness to answer your questions.  However, they can also duck them, unlike major league players who are the subject of media requests, if they choose to.  The normally quick to respond Hollon is reportedly devastated, but has been understandably reluctant to talk.
    And unlike Stroman, the timing of the suspension comes at an unfortunate time for Hollon.  Selected by the Jays in the 2013 draft out of Kentucky HS, he slipped to the 2nd round despite leading his school to the state championship because of concerns about his delivery, elbow, and makeup.  When the team failed to sign 1st round pick Phil Bickford, Hollon became the de facto top pick.
   Hollon made his debut in late 2013, and battled elbow soreness.  He tried to fight through it again in the spring of 2014, but tests confirmed a torn UCL, and he underwent Tommy John in May.
   New father Hollon returned to competition with Vancouver this June with a refined delivery, and a determined attitude.  He had a sizzling debut as the C's Opening Day starter, striking out 7 in 5 shutout innings, while allowing only a walk and a pair of hits.  Promoted to Lansing in August, he showed a continued flair for making an entrance.  In his MWL debut, he loaded the bases on a hit and two walks in the first inning, then retired the next 19 batters in a row.
   There is no doubt that Hollon has an electric arm.  He has a loose arm action, and has regained most of his former velo, which topped at 95 in his senior year of high school.  He throws a two-plane slider, curve, and change, and despite projections that his smaller size might mean an eventual destination in the bullpen, he shows an advanced feel for pitching that will keep him in a starting rotation until results determine otherwise.
   And about that attitude.  There are two sides to every story, and I've been told that it wasn't easy being small-town boy Clinton Hollon growing up, and that may have meant he developed a chip on his shoulder.  Did he take a banned substance because he thought he knew better?  Did he think the results were worth the risk?  Or, more likely, as in the case of Stroman, did he ingest something without knowing, despite warnings from the organization?
   Only Hollon knows the answer to that question, but the questions about his maturity and emotional makeup will continue in the wake of his suspension, which coupled with his surgery pushes his development back. The Blue Jays no doubt will continue to be patient with their young pitcher, who won't turn 21 until Christmas Eve.  He won't be eligible to pitch until mid-May.
   
14.  Dan Jansen C
   When the Blue Jays signed Russell Martin to a 5 year, $82 million contract in the off season, some thought it might be a sign that the club had little faith in their catching prospects.
   Nothing could be further from the truth.
   The contract they signed Martin to was the going rate and term for a catcher of his immense defensive skills.  And while many bemoaned Martin's lack of offence in August and early September, Manager John Gibbons wisely continued to write Martin's name in the lineup.  As the club heads to the post-season, Martin's signing is looking more and more like a shrewd investment.
  Of all defensive positions on the field, none are more important (outside of pitching itself) than Catcher, a spot with myriad responsibilities.
   Martin's signing has certainly helped to shore up both the Blue Jays defence and pitching staff.  It has also bought additional development time for Jansen and Max Pentecost.
   Jansen, a 16th round Wisconsin HS pick in 2013, has moved slowly through the system.  A knee injury caused a shutdown last year, and while with Lansing this year, a broken hand after being hit by a Dayton hitter's follow-through in May cost him almost three months.
   Despite that missed time, Jansen is emerging as a premium defender.  He moves well for his size (6'2", 230) behind the plate.  Jansen blocks balls in the dirt well, and is already an excellent framer of pitches.  He's been lauded for his ability to handle pitchers, which is a skill which may not directly show up in box scores, but is one of the most important tools in a Catcher's kit.
   Jansen struggled with the bat this year after a decent 2014 at Bluefield.  He struggled to stay above .200, but his bat was coming around in May before his injury.  Jansen showed some pop, with 5 HR in 183 ABs, and when Marcus Stroman came to Lansing for a rehab start, it was no coincidence that Jansen was behind the plate.
   That in and of itself speaks volumes about Jansen's future with the organization. He does not profile as an offensive catcher like Pentecost does, but does seem to be more of a defense-first catcher in the mold of Martin.


15.  DJ Davis OF
  Few players demonstrate the fact that development is a long, not necessarily straight-line process better than the young Mississippian.
   When the Blue Jays drafted Davis in the 1st round of the 2012 draft, he was both one of the youngest and rawest players in his class.  Davis' father Wayne played for years in the Toronto system in the mid-80s, never rising about High A, and like his son, was a speedy but contact-challenged outfielder.
   Davis was ranked the #3 prospect in the Gulf Coast League in his rookie year, and was the 8th ranked prospect in the Appalachian League the following year, despite less than sterling statistics.  Challenged with an assignment to full-season ball at Lansing last year, Davis' swing and miss tendencies were in full bloom, as he led the Midwest League in strikeouts with 167.  Despite his speed, he didn't show last year that he was turning into a threat on the basepaths, going 19-39 in stolen base attempts.  Davis has cut down on his long, loopy swing.
   Sent to Lansing to repeat Low A, Davis has made huge advances in his game.  He cut his K's down almost 30%, and stole 21 bases, and was caught only 10 times.  His overall line of .282/.340/.391 was a huge improvement over 2014's .213/.268/.316.  Not enough to put him back into Top 10 country, but encouraging nonetheless.
   In 2014, the left-handed hitting Davis hit more balls to left center, and ground balls to the right side:

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   This year, he's shown a tendency to pull the ball a bit more, while still using the whole field:

mlbfarm.com

   Still only 21, there is still time for Davis to develop.  He put more balls in play than he did last year, made harder contact, and with his plus speed, that's a positive step forward.
   Davis had a career day on June 8th, driving in a franchise record-tying 8 runs:

16.  Tom Robson RHP
   Like Maese, British Columbia born-and-raised Robson owes his ascent to the Next 10 somewhat to default.  He more likely would be in the next tier of prospects if July 31st had been a quiet day for Blue Jays fans.
  The 2011 4th rounder was making steady progress through the system before blowing out his elbow early in the 2014 season.  He came back this summer, and like most returning Tommy John patients, had re-captured his former velocity, but not his command.
   Robson hit 97 with his fastball this year, and sat between 93-95.  When he locates it, it has good sink, and he pounds the bottom of the strike zone, where ground balls are born, well.  Robson complements that fastball with a decent curve and change-up.  His arsenal revolves around his ability to command that fastball - which rarely happened this year.
  Still, there is a lot to like about Robson, and we won't begin to get a true reading on his potential until next year, when he likely will be a High A Dunedin.  If he maintains that velocity and regains his command, Robson profiles as a sleeper ground ball-inducing machine.
   Robson is also eligible for the Rule 5 this fall, but it's hard to see a team selecting him at this point.  However, if you want a sleeper prospect, he could be one.

17.  Roemon Fields OF
   If you don't know Fields' story by now....well, you just should.
   After high school, the Washington State product played Juco ball close to home, then transferred to tiny Bethany (KS), a NAIA school, where he ran track and played ball.
  Undrafted after he graduated, Fields worked in a mall selling hats, and then for the US Postal Service.  He had all but given up on his MLB dreams, when his former Juco coach invited him to play for a team he had assembled at an international tournament in Prince George, BC, and caught the eye of Jays scout Matt Bishoff, who signed the fleet Fields to a contract off of his play there.
   Fields made his pro debut with Vancouver in 2014, and broke the Northwest League for stolen bases.  He skipped Lansing for Dunedin this year, and held his own before being promoted to New Hampshire (with a brief trial in Buffalo) to end the year.  He stole 46 bases (in 60 attempts), and hit .262/.316/.321 at three levels.  Here's a sample of his speed from spring training:

   Pretty heady stuff for a guy who really didn't get a sniff from pro scouts in his senior year.  Fields is proof that if you cast your scouting net far and wide, you'll catch the odd potential keeper.
   Fields is possibly the fastest player in the organization, with the possible exception of Anthony Alford.  He is also more of a slap hitter (career .656 OPS), and profiles as a fourth outfielder.
   At the same time, Fields did not play year round ball while he was in college like so many of his peers did, so he still may be catching up on lost development time.  Fields, who turns 25 in November, is what he is. He still could make better contact and put more balls in play, because he has elite (70 grade) speed that puts a lot of pressure on defenders.  It was mildly surprising that he didn't receive an elevation to the 40-man and a place on the Blue Jays September roster to see some pinch-running duty down the stretch.  At the same time, there wasn't much room on that 40-man roster, and with Dalton Pompey already there, perhaps the time wasn't quite right for Fields.  He has been assigned to the Arizona Fall League, where we'll get a much better read on his future prospects against elite competition.


18.  Mitch Nay 3B
   There are few prospects who demonstrate the lengthy process development often entails than Nay.
In 2012, he was named Arizona's High School Player of the Year, and was considered one of the best prep power bats heading into the draft.
  A broken foot suffered prior to draft day, and a commitment to Arizona State caused his stock to slip, and the Blue Jays, who were without a first round pick, snapped him up in the supplemental round, 58th overall.
Nay's pro debut was delayed until 2013, and it was an impressive one, as he and Matt Dean formed a potent heart-of-the-order combination at Bluefield.  Nay capped off that rookie season with a promotion to Vancouver for the NWL playoffs, where he was named Playoff MVP as he led the C's to the league crown.
  Nay was challenged with an assignment to Lansing for 2014, and while his power had yet to make itself known, he led the pitcher-friendly Midwest League in Doubles, and hit a solid .285/.342/.389.  The thought was that all those doubles would turn into home runs as he matured.
Promoted to Dunedin to start 2015, the prospecting community began to sour on Nay as he struggled mightily through the first half of the season.  Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus, in particular, was very down on him:

The overall package is underwhelming, however, without a true carrying tool. With only average bat speed, he can get beat inside with average velocity. He needs to get his hands extended in order to drive the ball with any authority. He’s strong, but his up-the-middle approach leads to more doubles than home run production. Most importantly, he struggles to recognize spin. On defense, he’s already limited by his range, with a poor first step and below-average foot speed. He’ll never be better than an average defender at third base, and even that would take some natural refinement. He’s currently below average.

In order to end up with any kind of regular playing time, he’ll have to learn to drive the ball more consistently. Without the ability to catch up to premium velocity, his only way to do that will be on mistakes with breaking balls.

  The problem with making such an evaluation on a still relatively young player is that they are nowhere near a finished product in the low minors, and it turns out that Nay was asked by the organization to alter his swing this year in order to pull the ball more, and accelerate that power development. Nay hit just .218/.287/.333 in the first half, as he adjusted to the new approach.  He hit a much more promising .280/.327/.382 in the second half, before being shut down after being hit by a pitch in August.
   The power still didn't show up, as Nay hit 5 round trippers in the first half, and none in the second.  Again, the Florida State League is another pitcher's haven, and if you base Nay's season on his numbers alone, you're doing him a disservice.  Next year, however is a bit of a make-or-break for him, likely at New Hampshire.

19.  Andy Burns UT
   Burns is very much a forgotten man as far as prospects are concerned, but I think he's still very much in the picture.
  Burns sat out his final year of college after transferring, and he fell to the Blue Jays in the 11th round of the 2011 draft.  He has progressed steadily through the system, and garnered some attention with a line of .327/.383/.524 in half a season at Dunedin in 2013.
   After a so-so year at the plate with New Hampshire in 2014, Burns busted out again this year at Buffalo, hitting .291/.350/.373.
  Burns does not project as an everyday player, but he does profile as a potential super utility player.  His normal position is short stop, but with Jonathan Diaz and Munenori Kawasaki on Buffalo's roster for most of the season, Burns saw duty at short (8 games), 2nd (46), 3rd (50), 1st (13) and the outfield (8 games split between left and right).  Burns is not currently on the 40-man roster, and while 2104 was his first year of Rule 5 eligibility, there's a slight chance he could be snapped up this year if he's not promoted.
  In this day and age of 7 and 8 man bullpens, a player who can play a multitude of positions is a truly valuable commodity.  And while he's not a speed merchant, Burns runs the bases well, adding to his versatility.  I do not see Burns as an everyday player, and I'm not sure I even see him as a Ben Zobrist type. I do see him as having an MLB future with his ability to fill a lot of roles, and handle the bat well.  He's worth including in the prospect picture.

20.  Jose Espada RHP
   The Blue Jays took right handed pitchers with 4 of their first 5 picks last June, with Espada being the last.
   The Puerto Rican HS grade does not have that long, lean build that the Blue Jays covet in a pitcher, but he does have the athleticism, upside, and power arm that they love.
  Espada showed good command in his first pro season in the GCL, striking out 31 in 34 IP, while allowing only 8 walks.  His fastball sits at 89-91, and touched 93 - there's little doubt that there's room for projection there.  He showed a very sharp front-door breaking ball, and impressive feel for his change.
  Espada is said to be very polished for a high school pitcher, and the GCL didn't present much of a challenge for him.  Like Maese, he didn't make the cut for the Top 20 GCL prospects list because of that deep crop of players ahead of him.  He may not start next year in full season ball, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up there.  My fellow prospect hunters in Vancouver will likely get to see a fair amount of him next year, as I expect him to skip Bluefield.


   After July 31st, the cupboard may not be bare, but it's certainly time to consider a trip to the grocery store to re-stock.  This organization has proven adept at rebuilding the system before, and they're not afraid to do it again.  There is some depth in short season ball, but players at that level are so far away that they don't have a lot of value.
   In my next post, I'll take a look at five players who just missed the Top 20.

For reference purposes, here's last year's Next 10:

11.  Travis
12.  Sean Nolin
13.  Pentecost
14.  Nay
15.  Matt Smoral
16.  Smith
17.  Tellez
18.  Jairo Labourt
19.  Reid-Foley
20.  Ryan Borucki

1

Clutchlings Notebook: Week 1

   Mother Nature had a bit of a say in things, but otherwise the first weekend of the minor league season could not have gone much better for Toronto Blue Jays affiliates.

   Dunedin's Jairo Labourt got things rolling with 5 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball for Dunedin, and Mitch Nay, Dawel Lugo, and Matt Dean all went deep as the D-Jays opened their Florida State League season with a victory over Clearwater on Thursday.

  That set the stage for several more impressive pitching performances on Friday.  Matt Boyd, who got a taste of major league action in Montreal the weekend before, struck out 9 over 4.1 innings for New Hampshire, giving up 3 hits, no runs, and walked only one as the Fisher Cats topped New Britain to start the season.  Boyd and relievers Danny Barnes, Luis Perez, Blake McFarland combined to strike out 17 Rock Cats.  Meanwhile, in Lansing, Chase De Jong also struck out 9 over 4.2 innings in leading the Lugnuts to an Opening Day win over Lake County.
  Lansing had yet another solid start on Saturday from Starlyn Suriel, who contributed 5 innings of scoreless, 1-hit ball, along with 8 K's in a 3-2 win over Lake County in the first game of a doubleheader. Suriel retired the first 11 hitters he faced before allowing a two out walk in the 4th.  In game two, Shane Dawson, who hadn't pitched since last July, threw 5 solid innings, but took the loss as Lansing fell 2-1.  Dawson gave up a pair of hits, walked one and struck out 6, with the only blemish on an otherwise great outing a two-run homer he gave up in the 4th.  Newly acquired Jayson Aquino also tossed five solid innings for Dunedin on Saturday.  To round things out, Scott Copeland threw 7 scoreless innings for Buffalo, surrendering just one hit and one walk for the Bisons.
  Adding that up, I get six high quality starts for the organization in 24 hours.

   On Sunday, the organization went 4-5, as Buffalo, Dunedin, and Lansing all recorded victories, while New Hampshire split a twin bill.  Randy Wolf walked a bit of a tightrope early on, but spun five scoreless innings for Buffalo, and a quartet of relievers helped the Bisons shut out Rochester.
   New Hampshire lost that first game to New Britain, but a trio of pitchers led the Fisher Cats to victory in the 2nd game to shut out the Rock Cats.  Danny Barnes struck out 4 over 2 innings of relief work to earn the save.
   Dunedin's offence woke up to lead the D-Jays to victory over Clearwater, with Matt Dean, Andy Fermin, and David Harris contributing two hits each.  Harris also belted his first home run of the season.  Tiago da Silva, the well-travelled Brazilian reliever, pitched a pair of innings in relief.
And Lansing rode some timely hitting to tie their game against Fort Wayne up in the 9th, then won it in the 10th.

   Lastly, Gail Dull is a Phillies fan who lives in Dunedin.  She writes a great blog, full of photos and coverage of minor league baseball, primarily the Florida State League's Clearwater Threshers.  She lives about four blocks away from the D-Jays home Florida Auto Exchange Stadium, which makes me extremely envious, because if the Gods and Toronto drivers are willing, I'm two hours door to door from my house to the Rogers Centre.  She was kind enough to send along some samples of her work:

RHP Luis Santos, who has pitched in the Pirates and Royals organizations prior to signing with Toronto this year:

@BaseballBetsy photo

A rehabbing Michael Saunders up to bat against Clearwater:

@BaseballBetsy photo

Speedy outfielder Roemon Fields:

@BaseballBetsy photo

Fields watches pitcher Brad Allen's delivery.

@BaseballBetsy photo

Opening Day Review

   Two of the Blue Jays affiliates celebrated their home openers yesterday. Well, one did, the other  and Mother Nature had something to say about the other.

   The Buffalo Bisons hosted Rochester, and went up against the Twins' top pitching prospect, Alex Myers.  Myers battled some control issues, surrendering 6 walks, but the Red Wings pounded Bisons starter Andrew Albers for 8 hits and 4 runs, and took the contest 6-3.  Buffalo battled back with a pair of runs in the sixth to pull within a run, but Rochester scored a pair off of Bisons closer Bobby Korecky in the final frame to put the game out of reach.
   Ryan Tepara and Gregory Infante each had scoreless outings in relief of Albers. There's a good chance that one or both may see time with the Blue Jays.

  New Hampshire had their home opener against New Britain postponed by wind, snow, and rain. There was no word on who was to have started the game, but my bet was Matt Boyd.  The Fisher Cats will make up the game with the Rock Cats as part of a twin bill on Sunday.  There's no word again on today's starter as New Hampshire will try to open their season again, but it would have to be Boyd or Taylor Cole.


   Dunedin opened their season by spoiling the Phillies affiliate's home opener, topping their neighbour Clearwater Threshers, 5-2.   Jairo Labourt started the game for the D-Jays, and was lights out in the early going:

Labourt 93-95 in the 1st, touched 96 a few times. Working away with FB-CH combo #BlueJays
— Chris King (@StatsKing) April 9, 2015

  Labourt lost a bit of velocity in the 6th, and gave up some hard contact, but the start was encouraging.  Labourt started last year with Lansing, but struggled with his command, and was snet back to extended spring training to regroup, and he rediscovered his control when he was shipped out to Vancouver in June.  In 5.1 innings, Labourt gave up 5 hits, a pair of runs, and walked one.  He struck out 3, including rehabbing Phillies outfielder Dom Brown twice.   The Blue Jays own rehabber, Michael Saunders, was 0-3, but was robbed by Clearwater OF Aaron Brown, who brought a home run back over the fence.

   Mitch Nay, Dawel Lugo, and Matt Dean all went deep for Dunedin.  The trio hit a collective total of 16 Home Runs in the tough hitter's parks of the Midwest League last year, and while the Florida State League can be tough on hitters as well, perhaps this is the year that the power that has been prophesized for all three might be realized.

   And it only took four innings for the first triple play in all of baseball to be registered when Dean grounded into a 5-4-3 triple killing.

   Lansing's home opener is tonight, but they opened the newly renovated Cooley Law Stadium with their annual Crosstown Showdown against Michigan State.  The Lugs topped the Spartans 9-4. Lansing traditionally brings in pitchers from the lower levels to pitch this game, in order to save the regular pitching staff members for league play.  Lansing broadcaster recalled a game from a couple of years ago:

@Clutchlings77 In 2012, the Spartans had to face Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna and Daniel Norris. Good luck with that!
— Jesse G-S (@jgoldstrass) April 9, 2015

   Lansing used a quintet of pitchers in this game.  2014 8th round pick Justin Shafer started the game, and after giving up 3 runs in the first inning, settled down to strike out the side in the second.  Conner Greene, a 7th round pick in 2013 who has some acting credits to his name, pitched a scoreless third and fourth inning.  Chase Wellbrock, a 33rd round pick last year, pitched the fifth and gave up a run and struck out two.  Jesus Tinoco and Sean Reid-Foley each pitched scoreless, two K innings to finish the seven-inning contest.  All pitchers should start at Vancouver this year, although there are rumblings that Greene will be staying in Michigan.
  On the offensive side of things for Lansing, 1B Ryan McBroom was 2-2 with a double and a solo shot to open the scoring in the 2nd, and SS Richard Urena hit a solo blast as well.
   The Lugnuts open their Midwest League season against Lake County tonight in Lansing, with the repeating Chase De Jong taking the mound.

   It's shaping up to be a great minor league season.  The Bisons, for now, have a mostly veteran roster, so even though I hope to see them a few times this summer, my focus will be on New Hampshire, Dunedin, and Lansing for now, then expand to the short season teams in June.  I tweet regular updates about probably pitchers and 140 character game summaries.  If you don't follow me, I'm @Clutchlings77 on Twitter.

   A late note:  today's Bisons game has been postponed due to wind.


 

Spring Training Prospect Update #2

    One of the great ironies of spring training is that while fans who can't make the journey to Florida or Arizona can still keep close tabs on their teams thanks to the plethora of reporters and media outlets, it's hard to find out what's going on in Minor League camp unless you have some sources on the "inside," - or at least something close to it.

   Nonetheless, there still is some news coming out of Minor League camp.
Today, we learned that Anthony Alford and Jack Murphy had been reassigned from the big club's camp, joining Dwight Smith, Jr, and Mitch Nay, who had been sent down earlier.

Through the magic of live streaming, I was able to watch Alford's debut against the Orioles:

@Clutchlings77 I totally agree
— Anthony Alford (@ajalfor1) March 6, 2015

  Speaking of Alford, there was a good article about him on ESPN.com.  While it didn't provide much that we didn't already know, there were some good insights into Alford's reaction to having to go to Ole Miss Head Coach Hugh Frazee to tell him he was giving up football for baseball.  And we hadn't thought about the Bo Jackson comparison the article made, but it kind of makes sense.  He was overmatched at times against the higher level pitching he faced this spring, but he wasn't sent to big league camp to earn a job, but to soak up the atmosphere, and learn from major leaguers like Jose Bautista.  Those of us diehard fans who stayed tuned to the Blue Jays games earlier this month after the regulars had been removed from the lineup got a glimpse of his athleticism and speed.  When asked about who impressed him the most at major league camp, he replied without hesitation, "Bautista and Donaldson."

Some other news and tidbits:

-Matt Boyd tested out his surgically cleaned-out elbow earlier this week, and pronounced it fully healed.
-Clinton Hollon, who had Tommy John surgery a month ago, was throwing well in bullpen sessions, and is scheduled to return to competition in late April or early May.  The 2013 2nd rounder hit 95 with his fastball prior to the surgery. If you're looking for a sleeper breakout candidate this year, he may be the one.
-Canadian Justin Atkinson is being converted to catcher.  The 2011 26th rounder hit well in Lansing last year, and it will be interesting to see where he's assigned to start the year.
-Lane Thomas, a steal of a 5th round pick last year who opened a lot of eyes, has been taking reps at second base so far in minor league camp.
-the Buffalo Bisons began minor league spring training today, and have a slate of games against Dunedin/Clearwater teams.
-via Chis King of Baseball Prospectus (@StatsKing on Twitter), who watched the Blue Jays minor leaguers play against Puerto Rico yesterday, we had good reports on Catcher Matt Morgan's footwork, and Sean Reid-Foley's nasty slider.  Angel Perdomo started the game for the Blue Jays, and was squared up a bit in the first, but straightened things out in the second.
-there are some nice prospect profiles (mostly Blue Jays) coming out of Dunedin, via the Toronto Observer, by students at Toronto's Centennial College J-School that make for good reading.  The trip to spring training is part of the course of study for their fast-track journalism program - many Ontario colleges now offer similar courses. The program is open to college or university grads.


   By now, you all are familiar with the lights-out springs Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna have had.  Neither has been scored upon yet, and both were featured in the Blue Jays win over the Yankees on Tuesday night. Castro was all but unhittable, retiring 8 straight Yankees in his outing, while Osuna was hit hard on a couple of occasions, but escaped a pair of threats unscathed.  Castro has shown a vastly improved change up, which would be a devastating weapon paired with his electric fastball - in relief.
  I've made my feelings known about both.  Castro is only 20, pitched 80 innings last year, and has thrown all of 8 innings above Low A.  Osuna is the same age, is 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and has thrown 23 innings at High A.  Both would benefit from more time in the minors, in order to build up arm strength and develop their secondary pitches.  Castro, in particular, has pitched even better than he did last year, but the second half of spring training is where it counts, as teams pare down their rosters, and hitters begin to get their timing down.
  I would prefer both return to the minors, starting at Dunedin until the weather warms up, and then on to New Hampshire, and who knows?  Castro would be pitching in almost exclusively high leverage situations if he pitched out of the Blue Jays bullpen, and Osuna still needs to be treated with care - he's almost out of the woods, but not quite.  Just look at Kyle Drabek, who is in a life and death struggle to make this team, almost three years after this second Tommy John.  And for those who have forgotten, Drabek was the Blue Jays top prospect two years running prior to 2012.  They paid a heavy price in acquiring him, and they paid a similarly high one in the form of the $1.5 million signing bonus they gave Osuna.
  But I'm not facing an expiring contract, and the spectre of a new boss, and the longest playoff drought in baseball like Alex Anthopoulos is.  Castro is looking more and more like the one who will stick - most of the hitters Osuna faced won't likely be playing in the majors next month.  If they do take Castro north with them, the Blue Jays will have to treat his young arm very carefully.  And is that worth the risk?  We all know the importance of the bullpen, but the top-ranked bullpen in the game last year was beaten by the 28th-ranked team.  And the teams with the 24th, 26th, and 27th ranked bullpens made it to the playoffs as well.  The top 10 bullpens produced the same number of playoff teams.  The reason for this, of course, is simple: there are other aspects, like a strong starting rotation, or a run-producing offence, that are just as important - if not moreso - than a bullpen.  Will Castro make that much of a difference?  Would we rather not have him pitch about 140 innings as a starter next year, as opposed to maybe 80-90 as a reliever this year?  The top-ranked reliever, in terms of WAR (Baseball-Reference's model) ranked 28th overall among MLB pitchers last year, and there was a grand total of 5 relief pitchers in the top 50.
   Only the Blue Jays brain trust knows for sure.

Spring Training Prospect Update #1

   Major League training camps are already under way, but most minor league camps don't open until next week, far from the media microscope, but some news is slowly making its way north to help thaw out us frozen denizens of the new Sub-Arctic.

   Several Blue Jays prospects were invited to big league camp, and a few have already seen game action.
Dalton Pompey has started both games so far, and acquitted himself well - no surprise.  Miguel Castro threw a scoreless inning yesterday, Devon Travis went 0-4 in his first taste of MLB action, Mitch Nay hit an RBI single, and Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith, Jr made pinch-running appearances.

   Speaking of Nay, who hit an impressive Home Run in the Blue Jays inter-squad game on Monday, word is that he has been working with former Jays third baseman Scott Rolen this spring.  The concern about Nay has always been about his defence, but the club appears intent on giving him every opportunity to play himself out of the position.  Nay didn't show a lot of power at Lansing last year, but the organization isn't concerned, because the Midwest League is not a hitter's haven, and the hope is that Nay's 34 doubles (third highest total in the loop) will start to translate into some distance.  He fell off the radar a bit this past season, but at 21, there's plenty of time and projection left for him.

   Pompey has also been working with former Jay Vernon Wells, who was invited to spring training as a guest instructor.  It's a good PR move for teams to bring these former players back, and it also gives them some added teaching hands, and gives both sides a chance to see if coaching is in the player's future.  Wells, of course, is beyond financially comfortable, and is content to help raise his kids in Texas.  Kids grow up, however, and some of us find ourselves with a sudden surfeit of time when they leave the nest to go away to school.  Maybe Vernon will have a change of heart in a few years.

   The Blue Jays are holding a mini-camp this week for some of their top prospects.  According to Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com, Rowdy Tellez has been an impressive early-reporting prospect.  Tellez recovered from a slow start last year at Bluefield, which included an 0-26 stretch, to bash his way to the Midwest League by season's end.  Tellez has legendary power, but there has always been concern about his body, and if he would be able to play defence.  According to Mayo, Assistant GM Tony LaCava says Tellez has shown up in great shape:

He's really done a great job of conditioning," LaCava said. "He looks like he's transformed his body. It's not even an issue any more. I know that was a concern out of high school. He's worked his butt off to get himself in shape. He looks like he's ready to get going with his first full year at a full-season level."

   Mayo also says that LaCava told him that 2014 5th round draft choice Lane Thomas has also been impressive at the mini-camp.


    Mayo selected a pair of prospects who he thinks will have break out seasons this year:  Tellez, and C Danny Jansen.  Not to boast or anything, but both are on my recent top five Blue Jays breakout prospect candidates list.       

   Jeff Hoffman was a guest on his hometown Albany's 104.5 The Team earlier this week.  Hoffman, the Jays' first of two first round picks who underwent Tommy John surgery a month before the draft tweeted this a week and a half ago:

Bullpen number 15 tomorrow. Bout ready to see someone in the box. ⚡️⚾️🔥
— Jeff Hoffman (@hoff_23) February 23, 2015

   Hoffman told host Armen Williams that he had been throwing off a mound since January 5th, and was feeling about 95%, and will start to face live hitters around the middle of March.  If his rehab continues to go well, Hoffman says he's been told he will return to game action sometime in May - in the Florida State League, we would bet.  He was also asked about his name being mentioned in trade rumours for O's GM Dan Duquette, and Hoffman admitted that it was a distraction, but he knew it was out of his control.

 

Who's the Next Blue Jays Breakout Prospect?

   After Blue Jays prospects Daniel Norris, Kendall Graveman, Miguel Castro, and Dalton Pompey caught heavy doses of helium and quickly ascended the prospect ladder in 2014, it's time to take a look to see who could be poised for a similar breakout this year.
   Norris was on most Top 10 Blue Jays prospects list heading into last season.  Such was not the case with Graveman and Pompey.  And while Pompey and Norris' stats over the final weeks of the 2013 season gave a small glimpse of what was to come, Graveman gave no such indication of the quantum leap he was about to take.
  So, in determining who these prospects might be,  we looked at what their numbers over the last six or so weeks of the season were like.  We also tended to look at those outside of our Top 10, too.  So, here are several players who might make several jumps up the minor league ladder this year, and become familiar names to diehard Blue Jays fans -  if everything falls into place for them:


1.  Jairo Labourt, LHP
   Labourt's 2014 was very much a tale of two seasons.
  Challenged with an assignment to Lansing to start the season, Labourt struggled with his command, and was sent back to extended spring training after walking 20 in his first 14 innings.
Labourt regrouped in Florida and was sent to Vancouver when Northwest League play started in June. He was brilliant in the C's rotation, and was named the league's 3rd best prospect by Baseball America.  
   He rediscovered his command in the Pacific Northwest, striking out 82 in 71 innings, while walking 37.  Right handed hitters managed only a .171/.286/.202 line against him.
   Labourt's fastball sits in the low 90s, and touches 95.  His slider rates as his best secondary pitch, sometimes showing tilt and depth, but he had trouble commanding it this year.
 Why he may breakout:  From mid-July on, Labourt posted an 0.95 ERA in 9 starts totalling 47 innings.  He walked 22, and struck out 53.  He will be eager to repeat that success in a second shot at the Midwest League.  If he continues to command his fastball and develop this secondaries, Labourt could advance several levels this year.

2.  Rowdy Tellez, 1B
   We've tried not to go overboard in our praise of the Californian slugger.  This may be the year that the Blue Jays take the wraps off of him and let him soar.
   A legend on the showcase circuit during his high school years, Tellez struggled in his first summer of pro ball in the GCL in 2013, but brought his final numbers up to near-respectability with a hot final week of the short season summer.  Reports out of Florida said that he barreled up a lot of balls in the final two weeks of the season.
   He struggled again at the next level with Bluefield of the Appalachian League again this summer, going 0-33 at one point.  And then Tellez took off.  He mashed Appy League pitching, and earned a late season promotion to Lansing, before moving back down to Vancouver to help with the C's bid for a fourth straight NWL crown.
     For the season, his line was .305/.375/.438.  Despite the fact that his hit tool far surpasses anything else in his toolkit, Tellez is not a one-dimensional slugger, as his OBP would suggest.  Tellez has a respectable K/BB ratio for a power hitter.
   The Blue Jays have been very patient with Tellez to this point.  The Midwest League can be tough on a young hitter, but if Tellez can overcome his tendency to start slowly, he may start to move rapidly this year.
   Tellez is another one of Blue Jays Performance Coach Steve Springer's protegees, and you can almost hear Springer in Tellez's approach to hitting:

“The name of the game is to not get yourself out,” espoused Tellez. “You want to be selective in the zone and not chase. And when you do get your pitch, don’t miss it. Pitchers are going to make pitches and hitters are going to miss pitches they should hit. That’s why it’s a game of failure. It is what it is. It’s baseball. But I don’t find myself striking out a lot, ever, really. Knock on wood.”

Why he may break out:  From mid-July, Tellez hit .365/.421/.535.  He has a solid approach at the plate.  His development may accelerate in full season ball.

 3.  Matt Smoral, LHP
   The Blue Jays have made a habit of taking longer looks at players whose senior high school seasons were disrupted or even lost to injury, and they took a pair in 2012 in Arizona HS third baseman Mitch Nay, and Ohio Prep Southpaw Smoral, who was shut down for his senior year after surgery to repair a foot injury. Both are still developing, but the Blue Jays may have acquired good value for both.
   Smoral didn't make his pro debut until 2013, and struggled in the GCL, but that wasn't a surprise.  The complex league is a place where the organization places some prospects on the potter's wheel and re-molds them in a more efficient cast.  The GCL is often the place where those new products get some of the rough edges rounded off.
   Playing under the lights for the first time with Bluefield this year, Smoral was electric in his debut, striking out 8 in 3 innings.  Promoted to Vancouver, Smoral held his own against the more advanced NWL hitters.  He likely will be anxious to atone for a poor outing which likely cost the C's the final game of the league championship series.
  Command of his fastball is the issue for Smoral.  Once he consistently develops it, his secondary pitches, his slider in particular, will become that much more effective.  At 6'8", he gets considerable downward on his plane, and his high elbow lift gives him good deception in his delivery.  His size also gives him good extension on his fastball, and gives it late life.
Why he may break out: Tall lefthanders, for whatever reason, seem to take longer to develop.  Once he develops improved control of his fastball, he will take off.  Smoral will start at Lansing this year, and could be poised to make multiple jumps up the ladder.  

4.  Ryan Borucki, LHP
   Because you can't have enough tall, athletic left handed pitchers.
Borucki was another 2012 draftee whose arm issues scared most teams away.  The Blue Jays took him in the 15th round, and he gutted out 4 outings in the GCL that year.  The elbow did not improve, and Borucki underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of spring training, 2013.
  Sent to Bluefield with Smoral to begin 2014, Borucki was lights out in the Appy League, striking out 30 and walking only 6 in 33 innings.  Sent to Vancouver, Borucki didn't miss a beat, and Northwest League hitters managed only a .159 batting average against him.
   Borucki threw 90-93 before his surgery, and indications are that he has that velocity back.  He won't blow hitters away, but he missed a lot of bats this year despite being around the plate a lot.  That tells you a great deal about not just his command, but his feel for pitching.
  Borcuki will start at Lansing, and may move quickly.  As a midwesterner, he's familiar with the cool Midwest League spring.
Why he may break out:  Borucki already seems to have conquered any command issues.  He knows how to pitch.

5.  Dan Jansen, C
   As with any sort of final pick, this was a tough one.  Matt Boyd, yet another southpaw, merits consideration.  He pitched better than Graveman and Norris through May, but a foot injury and later bone chips led to inconsistency and a loss in velocity.  Boyd says he is healthy, and if he makes a quantum leap this year, well, you read it here first.
   This spot has to go to Jansen, though.  With only a relatively small sample size on his playing resume, he has already drawn rave reviews for his receiving skills, and has established himself as a decent hitter.  Another overlooked high school player (from the non-baseball hotbed of Wisconsin - the most noted Dan Jansen from that state to this point is the former Olympic speed skater), Jansen missed the last month of the season with a knee injury, but all reports say that he is recovered and ready to go for spring training.  He has excellent bat speed, and has been lauded for how he handles a pitching staff.
Why he may break out: The drafting of Max Pentecost and the signing of Russell Martin pushes Jansen down the depth charts, but that may be doing him a favour.  There is no need to rush his development.  That may allow him to spend most of the season at Lansing, and while he may not move up the ladder at a rocket pace, it may allow his status as a prospect grow, and make him a breakout prospect in that manner.

  A final word of caution:  these are prospects, after all.  Their development is not necessarily linear.
The odds of all of the above leaping into mega-prospect status are still long, and we may not see the type of leaps made by Norris/Graveman/Pompey/Castro for a long time.  The above, however, are players who allowed the same kind of glimpses into their potential that group gave us in 2013.

Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects: 11-20

11.  Devon Travis 2B
     Travis is the latecomer to this list, and while what we've read about him has mostly been positive, we don't know enough about him yet to bump him further up the list.
  Travis reminds us a bit of Kevin Pillar.  Not highly rated in his draft year and the owner of average to slightly above average tools, all Travis has done in three minor league seasons is hit, posting a .323/.388/.487 line.  Baseball America is firmly in the Travis camp, noting that he has hit at every level.  Here's more from their latest report on him:
 
   He has superb hand-eye coordination, good balance at the plate and strong bat control, which allows him to make consistent contact and use the whole field. He’s a smart player who’s been able to make adjustments as he’s moved up the ladder

   Keith Law, on the other hand, is less than sold:

   Had a great year but....... he's old for where he played, and he's an undersized guy without tools. Not a prospect for me, nor for any of the scouts I talked to who'd seen him.

   The true evaluation of Travis probably lies somewhere in between.  The Tigers, faced with a thin market for outfielders, felt that Anthony Gose could develop into at least a league average player, and act as insurance if Steven Moya proves to be not quite ready for MLB action.  They also felt that they could live with several more years of Ian Kinsler, even with his production due to start to decline, at second base, ahead of Travis.
   You're not getting an all star with Travis.  You're not getting a gold glover or much of a base stealing threat, either.  What you are getting is a guy who consistently barrels up the ball, who may hit 10 to 15 home runs a year, and a guy who has made the necessary adjustments at every level he has played at.  And with second being a bit of a black hole in the Jays lineup for several years, the club will take that.

Travis' Milb Page

ETA: late 2015/early 2016
Projection: everyday 2nd baseman, bottom third of the order bate
Worst Case Scenario:  utility infielder

12.  Sean Nolin  LHP
   Nolin has been the forgotten man in the Blue Jays plans, but he showed this fall in Arizona that when he's healthy, he can very much be in the picture.
   Leg injuries have limited Nolin to 20 starts in each of the last two years.  In 2013, he matched Marcus Stroman strikeout for strikeout with New Hampshire.  At 6"4"/230, Nolin is projected as a back of the rotation innings eater.
   Nolin commands all four of his pitches well.  His fastball grades as average, but he can touch 95 on occasion.  His size allows him to create a downhill plane on his pitches, and his delivery can make it tough for hitters to pick up the ball.  Nolin gave up a fair number of fly balls earlier in his minor league career, but he induced much more groundball contact this year.
   The biggest challenge Nolin has faced the past two years is staying healthy.  Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, and possibly even Kendall Graveman have passed him.  The lefthander went to Arizona this fall to make up for lost innings, and after a couple of rough outings early in the schedule, he was back to his old form over the last half.
   It's hard to say where Nolin fits in the Blue Jays plans.  Called up in 2013 for an emergency start, he caught too much of the strike zone and was pummeled by the Orioles.  Even though he missed almost a month this year, he pitched well down the stretch for Buffalo, and was called up when MLB rosters expanded at the end of August, but pitched all of one inning in September.
 With the the starting rotation beginning to become a bit crowded,  Nolin's greatest value to the club may be as trade bait.

Nolin's Milb Page

ETA:   2015
Projection:  Back of the rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Front of the bullpen guy



13.  Max Pentecost  C
 The Blue Jays nabbed Pentecost with their second first round pick in June, 11th overall.
All indications were that he was a hit-first, defence-second receiver, but was at least adequate behind the plate.  Jason Kendall comps were made.
  After he signed,  Pentecost spent the obligatory week in the Gulf Coast League, then was off to Vancouver, for what was presumed to be the real start of a brief apprenticeship in the minors, which would see him in the majors leagues as early as next summer.
   Pentecost arrived in the Pacific Northwest in rough shape however, likely from the rigors of an extended collegiate season on a frame that scouts felt could use some bulking up to begin with.  Pentecost was behind the plate for only 6 games for the C's, and was limited to 87 Plate Appearances before being shut down and sent back to Florida for rest and rehab in August. Reports we had about his catching skills in that small sample size were less than glowing, but we'll give Pentecost a pass for now.
   Pentecost turned out to have a shoulder injury which didn't respond to treatment, and underwent what we presume is surgery to repair a torn labrum on October 8th.  Recovery from the procedure, of course, depends on the extent of the damage, but it's typically 9 months to a year for a full recovery. Which means that 2015 isn't necessarily a write off for him, but it does move the projection back, and the signing of Russell Martin takes away the urgency.
   Pentecost has above-average speed for a catcher, and has a line drive swing that isn't projected to produce great power, but should generate plenty of singles and doubles.  There is every indication that he is a premium athlete - he was the MVP of the summer collegiate Cape Cod League in 2013, and won the Johnny Bench Award as the nation's top college catcher in 2014.  There is every indication that he will be a solid contributor to the lineup.  The injury issue which has stalled his timetable is the only thing keeping him out of the Top 10.

Pentecost's Milb Page

ETA:  Late 2016
Projection: hit first, defence second catcher
Worst Case Scenario: platoon catcher

14.  Mitch Nay  3B
  Nay may have been surpassed by Pompey, Barreto, and maybe Alford as the best position player prospect in the system, but he still figures highly in the Blue Jays future plans.
  Nay missed a season of development in 2012 due to a broken foot, but had a breakout year in short season play in 2013, raking at Bluefield before being promoted to Vancouver in time for the NWL playoffs, in which he was named the MVP.  This season at Lansing, the power wasn't in present in as much quantity as had been hoped, but his 34 doubles were tied for third in the league.  The Midwest League is not a home run hitters paradise, particularly the Lugnuts' home Cooley Law School Stadium.  Power is often the last took in a hitter's kit to develop, so the thinking that some of those doubles will turn into homers in more favourable environments.
  Nay has an advanced approach at the plate, and makes consistently hard, up the middle contact.  He still projects as a middle of the order of the bat.  The concern about Nay has always been about his range, which can take away from his plus arm.  With Brett Lawrie ensconced at third for the foreseeable future, a move across the diamond may be in store for Nay.
  Other top prospects list have ranked Nay higher than we have, and while we're still high on him, his presence on this secondary tier is more of a reflection on the rate of his development relative to other players in the system.

Nay's Milb Page

ETA:  Late 2017
Projection:  Middle of the order, starting 3rd Baseman
Worst Case Scenario:  IB/DH platoon player

15.  Matt Smoral  LHP
   Smoral was yet another gem the Blue Jays drafted who other scouts shied away from because of a broken foot in his senior year of high school and a college commitment.  Toronto took him as a comp pick in 2012 and gave him a $2 million bonus, and were prepared to wait on the 6'8" lefthander.
   Smoral didn't make his pro debut until the GCL started in June of 2013, and missed a fair number of bats.  And when he wasn't missing bats, he was missing the strike zone.
   The Blue Jays moved him up the ladder to the Appalachian League in 2014,  Smoral's  Appy debut was a sizzling one, striking out 8 and walking 3 in 3 innings.  Named the league's 7th prospect by BA, Smoral was promoted to Vancouver in August, and wasn't overmatched against older hitters, although a meltdown in the NWL finals by Smoral cost the C's a chance at a four-peat.
   Smoral touches 96 with his fastball, with late life.  His slider was one of the best in short season ball, and projects as a plus pitch.  While he made strides with his delivery this season, Smoral still must improve on his command (5.7K/9 this year).
   Smoral projects as a front of the rotation starter if he can harness his command.  Tall lefthanders who missed a year of development tend to take longer to reach their ceiling, so the Blue Jays may not be as aggressive with their promotion of him as they were with other pitchers this year.

Smoral's Milb Page

ETA:  2017
Projection: #2/#3 starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Brett Cecil or Aaron Loup's replacement

16.  Dwight Smith
   If Mitch Nay flew under the radar this year in the shadow of more high profile position players in the system, the son of the former Major Leaguer by the same name was barely a blip on the screen.
Playing in the Florida State League in front of dozens of spectators every night, all Smith did was post an OPS of .816 with virtually no protection in the lineup, in cavernous FSL stadiums, and in the flyball-killing Florida heat.
   A sandwich pick in 2011, Smith has made steady, if unspectacular progress.  Smith lacks the power of a corner outfielder, and the Blue Jays may have plans to try to turn him into a multi-position utility player, as evidenced by the brief trial he had at second base in the Arizona Fall League. It will be interesting to see if the club has him play several positions at New Hampshire next year.
   We find that when we talk about prospects who are in this tier, we tend to talk about what they can't do.  What Smith can do is get on base consistently, and use his line drive stroke to find the gaps.  He has average speed, which all but rules out centrefield, except in an emergency.
   It doesn't hurt that Smith hits from the left side, too.

Smith's Milb Page

ETA: Late 2016/early 2017
Projection:  Platoon Corner OF
Worst Case Scenario:  Utility Player

17.  Rowdy Tellez
   The legend of Rowdy Tellez is growing.
A hitter of prodigious BP and Home Run Derby blasts in various Showcase events as a High Schooler, MLB teams were scared off by his USC commitment prior to last year's draft, but the Blue Jays used savings gained elsewhere in the draft to convince him to sign after taking him in the 28th round.
   Tellez struggled in the first weeks of his pro debut season in the GCL last year, but found his groove in the closing week, when he hit everything hard.  Sent to Bluefield this season, Tellez got off to another slow start, including an 0-33 stretch, but caught fire and hit .293/.358/.424.  The club skipped Tellez over Vancouver to Lansing, where he acquitted himself well in two weeks of play.
  There is no disguising Tellez's role.  He is a bat first player, period.  Yet his is not necessarily a hit or miss approach.  Tellez has shown patience at the plate, walking almost as much as he struck out this year.  He has above average bat speed, and can drive balls to the opposite field.
   At 6"5"/230, Tellez is a below average runner who will have to pay attention to his conditioning, and work hard to be even an average first baseman.  He should return to Lansing this year, and will likely split time at first and DH with the presence of Ryan McBroom, who had a great debut season at Vancouver.  We are excited about his future, but he is still far away, and if he doesn't hit, he won't provide any value to the club.

Tellez's Milb Page

ETA:  2017/18
Projection:  Middle of the Order 1B/DH
Worst Case Scenario:  AAAA Player

18.  Jairo Labourt
   There's a temptation to label Labourt as a disappointment this year.
The tall Dominican lefty started the year with Lansing, where he was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, and he struggled mightily, walking 20 batters in 14 innings. To be fair, he was not the only prospect on the team who had difficulty with the challenge the organization presented him with.
   Sent back to extended spring training, Labourt rediscovered his command, and was sent off to Vancouver when short season play started, where he became the C's ace, and was named the NWL's third best prospect by BA.
   Labourt challenges hitters with his mid 90s fastball, and was very successful against right handed hitters, who hit .171/.286/.202.  Labourt demonstrated much better command with Vancouver, striking out 82 and walking 37 in 71 innings. He did hit 8 batters, showing a willingness to pitch inside.
   If not for his Lansing experience, we would no doubt be looking at Labourt's season through a different lens.  His is a live arm that should perform well in another stint at Lansing.  The organization has to make a 40 man roster decision on Labourt after next season, so his timeline may be moved up.

Labourt's Milb Page

ETA:  2017
Projection:  Middle of the rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Front of the bullpen guy

19.  Sean Reid-Foley

   When a prospect drops in the draft due to concerns either about signability or durability, you can bet that the Blue Jays will be in the running to scoop him up.  They covet impact players.

   Such was the case with righthander Reid-Foley, who fell to the Blue Jays in the second round last June.  Some teams were scared off by his delivery, while others felt that he was committed to Florida State. The Blue Jays felt that they scored another first rounder.

   Reid-Foley caught a heavy dose of helium last spring with added velocity on his fastball.  At 6'3"/215, and with a fastball that touched 97, he was a man among boys in Florida high school competition.  He pounds the strike zone, and shows an advanced feel for pitching.
  There are concerns about his delivery.   He throws across his body, and the inverted W in his delivery is a tell-tale sign of future elbow/shoulder issues to some.  You can't really see the W here, but what you can see is a compact delivery, a nasty slider, and hit and miss stuff:

Reid-Foley's Milb page

ETA: 2018

Projection:   Front of the rotation starter

Worst Case Scenario:  Hard to determine - he's very far away

   
20.  Ryan Borucki

   This was the hardest of all our prospect picks to make.  We had to choose from a variety of players at different stages of development.  There were some we considered who had disappointing seasons but still have high ceilings (DJ Davis), some who surprised, but are too far away (Lane Thomas),  and some who we're still high on, but have to wonder about their earlier projections (Dawel Lugo/Alberto Tirado).
   Ultimately, we've decided to go with Borucki.  In his high school senior year, he played mostly first base, due to an elbow injury that he chose to rehab.  The Blue Jays took a flyer on the tall, athletic Illinoisan, and took him in the 15th round in 2012.
   The injury didn't respond to treatment, and Borucki opted for Tommy John surgery in March the following season, which cost him all of 2013.  Borucki teamed up with Smoral in the Bluefield rotation this year, and followed him to Vancouver late in the season.  He had the lowest walk/9 ratio (1.6), and the best K-BB ratio (5.0) of any lefthander in the Appy League.  He pitched even better in the Northwest League.  On the year, Borucki gave up just 39 hits in 57 IP this year, walking  only 9, while striking out 52.
   Borucki sat between 92-94 early in the season, but lost a touch of velocity as the season wore on, which isn't a surprise.  He pitches off his fastball, and the best of his secondary pitches at this point is his change, which shows plus potential.  His curveball will need an upgrade if he is to repeat his success at higher levels.
  At 6'4", Borucki still has plenty of room for projection.

Borucki's Milb Page

ETA:  Late 2017/Early 2018
Projection: Middle to end of the rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Front end of the bullpen guy