Blue Jays Prospects Prosper In Australia Amid Questions About the ABL's Future

David Harris\
Canberra Times photo

  As play heads into its final weekend before the post-season, questions abound amongst Australian baseball fans about the future of the Australian Baseball League.

  The Blue Jays have had a very successful partnership with the Canberra Cavalry, one of the few profitable teams in the loop.  Former Jays farmhand C Jack Murphy was the ABL MVP and led the Cavalry to the ABL title, as well as an Asia Series Championship in 2013-14.  The lessons the backwards-pitching veteran ABL pitchers taught Anthony Alford about pitch recognition last year helped to contribute to his breakout stateside season in 2015.  This year, 2B David Harris, and SS Jason Leblebijian, who both split time with Lansing and Dunedin, have been the offensive leaders as the Cavs sit 2nd to Brisbane, and have a post-season series with Adelaide starting next weekend.  Harris leads the league in hitting, while Leblebijian is tied for the lead in RBI.

  The original ABL ran from 1989-1999, but folded as many of the outfit's teams were awash in a sea of red ink, and there were problems distributing talent evenly.  The loop was briefly re-established shortly after the turn of the century, and was resuscitated once again in 2009, with MLB taking on a 75% ownership stake, with Baseball Australia taking on the other quarter.  Some of the teams have been successful in gaining local sponsorships, but questions about the league's future began about a year ago, when MLB's original five-year commitment was about the expire.

   The start of the ABL season in late October was marked with controversy when CEO Peter Wermuth was abruptly fired on the eve of the season opener.  A permanent replacement still has yet to be named, with Baseball Australia head Brett Pickett acting as spokesperson.  Few tears were shed at Wermuth's dismissal, however, as Aussie fans had grown impatient with his failure to grow the league over his five-year tenure.
   The ABL is crucial to the development of the sport down under, but it ranks far down the list of the average Aussie's favourite sport.  A quick scan of the Canberra Times is a challenge if you're looking for baseball stories.  Cricket, Australian Rules Football, Soccer, and Women's Basketball appear to far outpace baseball in terms of popularity.  Attendance figures are not published with league box scores, and while Canberra and Perth seem to be well-supported, there are scores of empty seats at the home parks of the other four teams.
   Clouding the ABL's future is Pickett's admission that MLB is looking to reduce its majority stake in the league, but he insists that there will be a 2016-17 ABL season.  The league is looking for corporate partners in North America, Asia, and Australia to give the league a fresh injection of capital.  According to Pickett, there is no timetable for the MLB to reduce their stake in the league. In the short term, there will be an ABL, but the long-term outlook is less than clear.  MLB, in their original agreement with Baseball Australia, signed on for a five-year term.  With that coming to a close, MLB is clearly not optimistic about the league's future, and was growing tired of subsidizing a money-losing operation.

   With relations between the USA and Cuba continuing to thaw, there has been considerable speculation that MLB may shift their focus in that direction.  Cuba would certainly be closer for organizations to keep an eye on their prospects, although there is nothing imminent between the island nation and MLB.  For Australian baseball fans, it's been a fun time, but it appears that there aren't enough of them to make this league viable.
  From a Blue Jays perspective, it's hard to say how the club feels about these developments.  On the one hand, no Blue Jay prospect who was sent to Australia has played in the majors (former Cavs Didi Gregorius and Kevin Kiermaier have), but aside from Alford, the club has sent no top-level prospects to the ABL.  But the league does fill a developmental niche for the club:  Alford did not play against top-level high school competition in his native Mississippi, and because of his college football commitment, had amassed just over 100 PAs in his first three minor league seasons.  The ABL was like summer school for the toolsy outfielder, and it's doubtful he's a top 100 prospect now without that catch-up experience.  The ABL also can give players like Colton Turner and Phil Kish a chance to make up for innings lost because of injury, and if nothing else for org guys like Harris and Leblebijian, it can accelerate their development to the point where they could become very serviceable depth pieces in the upper minors.  A personal note about Harris - I saw the 2013 36th rounder (out of Southern Arkansas) in his rookie season with Vancouver, where he made a pair of athletic plays in a July game.  Playing 2nd Base, Harris had to sidestep a runner advancing from first while he charged a 1st inning slow roller, which he fielded cleanly and threw across his body to nip the batter at 1st.  Several innings later, he ranged far down the right field line to grab an opposite-field flare that threatened to drop in.   A fixture at the top of the Cavalry batting order, Harris has played CF for Canberra this year, demonstrating his multi-position versatility.  I've watched his career very closely since that night at The Nat, the home of the Vancouver Canadians.
   All things being equal, it's likely that while the Jays are supportive of the ABL, if there was an opportunity one day to have their farmhands play winter ball closer to home, where the cost of transporting and housing them would be cheaper, they would welcome it.  While the players they've sent have for the most part not Top 10 guys, they have sent many players who have made a significant impact for the Cavalry.

   It just seems appropriate to include a Murphy Walk Off HR to conclude this piece:

Smoral Looking to Rebound in 2016

MiLB.com photo

    Progress in any field of endeavour is seldom made in a straight line.
In the world of professional sports, especially one with a development curve as steep and long as baseball's is, progress can come in a series of backward and forward steps that on balance leave the player moving forward.

   Organizations don't always mind seeing a prospect struggle.  For some, the difficulties they experience in their early years of pro ball are the first extended taste of failure they've ever had at a game that has come so easily for them.  The lessons learned from that adversity can go a long way to helping to develop that prospect.

   And that may mean that Blue Jays LHP Matthew Smoral is ready to break through, and start to fulfill the potential the team saw in him when they took him as a first round compensation pick (50th overall) in 2012, despite having missed most of his senior year of high school competition with a foot injury.

   The accepted wisdom in baseball that left-handers seem to take longer to develop, and tall ones even more so.  6"8" Smoral made his pro debut in the GCL in the summer of 2013, walking 26, hitting 10, and striking out 27 in 25 innings.  Invited to Instructs that fall, the organization worked on refining Smoral's delivery to help correct his control issues.  Sent to Bluefield for the start of the 2014 season, Smoral had a scintillating Appy League debut, striking out 8 batters over 3 innings.  By mid-season, he was promoted to Vancouver, and played a prominent role in the C's bid for a fourth consecutive NWL title that just fell short.

   Heading into 2015, the sky appeared to be the limit for Smoral.  The year before, he routinely sat between 91-93with his fastball, touching 95 and showing great movement when down in the strike zone, and showed a slider that could be downright nasty when he commanded it.  The plan likely was for the Ohio native to start in the Midwest League with Lansing, but back issues kept him in Florida when spring training camp broke.  Brought along slowly, Smoral pitched under the watchful eyes of the Blue Jays medical staff out of Dunedin's bullpen in June, then was sent to Bluefield to presumably get stretched out.
   Except that Smoral really never did get stretched out, and was limited to 10.2 innings over 8 appearances, before a late-August screaming line drive off of the side of his head caused the Blue Jays to shut him down for the season.

  Entering 2016, Smoral has disappeared from the prospect radar.  The Blue Jays 9th ranked prospect after 2012, 13th after 2013, and 11th after 2014, as well as the Appalachian League's 7th top prospect in 2014 by Baseball America, Smoral is appearing on few top prospects lists at this point, and for good reason:  2014 was a major step backward for him.
  But there is good news on the horizon.  Smoral tweeted a video of himself which clearly shows he's healthy once again:

@AssaultAirBike 51 Cals in 30 sec here @FitnessDiesel . What's the 60 sec record? #TrainingThroughPain #SufferBetter pic.twitter.com/JK1SoaLWth

— Matthew Smoral (@MattSmoral) January 21, 2016

  It would also appear that Smoral has been working with the crew from Driveline Baseball, a pitching consulting firm that has worked with a number of Jays prospects:

A picture of where @drivelinebases has taken my arm path this offseason, compared to the last two years. pic.twitter.com/JXoGgSgIFV

— Matthew Smoral (@MattSmoral) January 18, 2016

  The improved arm angle should allow Smoral to stay on top of his pitches better, and keep the ball down in the strike zone with greater consistency.  Besides staying healthy, command has been his biggest issue since turning pro.

 Undoubtedly, Smoral still has a long road ahead of him.  Entering his 4th pro season, he has thrown all of 4 innings above short season ball.  At the same time, his health and his mechanics appear to be the best they've been in some time.  It's hard to predict a breakthrough season for him just yet, but some of the ingredients are there.

Blue Jays Quietly Building a Strong Organization

Gil Kim
National Post photo

   A Major League Baseball team's off-field personnel roster encompasses many people, with a wide variety of skills and backgrounds.  There are those who specialize in scouting, while others have expertise in instructing and developing minor leaguers, and more and more teams are building analytics departments. If each of those groups pull on their oars in their own direction, the result for the organization will be chaos, and the team will be sailing in circles on second division seas for years.  It takes a concerted effort for all of these employees to be on the same page, and to work toward a common goal.

   Mark Shapiro has taken more than his fair share of heat since he took over as President at the end of the season, effectively becoming the face of the franchise.  A slumbering fan base had been re-energized, and thousands more lapsed fans scrambled aboard the Blue Jays band wagon, but the elation of October baseball turned to the November blues for many when GM Alex Anthopoulos, opted not to accept a new contract when his expired at the end of October, and free agent David Price, who would have been a difficult sign even if AA had remained with the organization, bolted for the Red Sox.

    AA was a tough act for Shapiro to follow in the eyes of many.  Anthopoulos was the (kind of) local boy who made good, a guy who worked his way up from interning the Expos mail room to running the nation's baseball team.  And where Anthopoulos was effusive (if not evasive) with the media, Shapiro is concise, and not afraid to be blunt - his comment that a grass playing surface at the Rogers Centre was not a priority may have been correct, but it sure did not play well with some.  To his credit, Shapiro did not tiptoe around the issue, however, or offer vague promises somewhere down the road.  Still, this rankled with some fans, who have turned Shapiro their own personal Rogers-bashing pinata.


   So, while fans and the media may be complaining about the failure to sign Price, or any other remaining free agents, and the fact that departing President Paul Beeston's warm and fuzzy assurance about grass coming to the Dome by 2017 seem to ignore the major engineering issues that will come with that project, Shapiro has been quietly revamping the organization, particularly the player development side.

   His first and most notable hiring was Ross Atkins, his VP of Player Personnel in Cleveland, who was brought over to fill the same role in Toronto.  Despite many fans' misgivings about the new guy bringing along one of his own to run the team, Atkins' story is one of shrewdness and determination.   Atkins has an impressive record as a drafter and developer of talent, with the Indians now boasting one of the deepest farm systems in baseball.  While the Blue Jays pennant run filled the Rogers Centre (and Rogers' coffers) unlike at any time since they took ownership of the Jays over a decade ago, the heavy toll it took in terms of prospects clearly did not set well with the corporation - hiring Atkins is proof that this is a team that wants to work towards being a model of player development.

  Atkins' hiring was just the first of several for the Blue Jays.  Just before Christmas, the team announced that analyst Joe Sheehan was promoted to Director of Analytics, taking over a newly-created department.  The Blue Jays, under Anthopoulos, under-utilized Sheehan, and lost several promising younger analysts and interns when they proved reluctant to use their data interpreting skills for much more than figuring out if a player would be a good fit in the clubhouse.  The Indians, of course, with their proprietary baseball information system DiamondView, were pioneers in developing the analytical side of the game.  Shapiro protegee Neal Huntington married the best of traditional and analytical methods shortly after taking over as GM of the Pirates, and the club was named organization of the year by Baseball America for its ability to find value in players, and new methods of playing the game.  Travis Sawchik's excellent Big Data Baseball detailed how the Pirates were able to blend analytics and traditional baseball methods seamlessly.


  Early in the New Year, the Blue Jays announced the hiring of Angus Mugford as the head of their new High Performance division, responsible for the mental and physical development of all Blue Jays players.  Mugford has an impressive resume, having worked as a sports psychologist at the famed IMG Academy in Florida. His plan is to expand the department, hiring another psychologist, and experts in nutrition and sport science. The whole performance coach issue is not new to the Jays - hitting guru Steve Springer has done an excellent job working with Jays prospects on the mental side of the game, but the hiring of Mugford is a huge investment in the players in the organization, and takes the sport science angle to a higher level.

   The hirings continued last week when the Blue Jays hired world-travelling Gil Kim from the Rangers (who he was scouting for) to become their first-ever Director of Player Development, overseeing the club's minor league operations.  Kim has extensive playing experience from time spent in the Netherlands, China, Spain, and Venezuela, soaking up as much baseball knowledge as he could at each stop.  Like Atkins, Gil speaks Spanish, and has the ability to develop a rapport with Latin players, which gives an indication about where the team may be headed as far as scouting is concerned.  The club did lose Ismael Cruz to the Dodgers after the season ended, and while they may decide to promote his replacement from within, the Indians and Director of Latin American operations Ramon Pena parted ways last week, and it may be just a matter of time before he's introduced in that role with the Blue Jays.

   The most recent hiring this past weekend was Mike Murov in yet another newly created post, that of Baseball Operations Director.  Murov had been with the Red Sox since 2010, and will be responsible for creating and implementing decision-making processes, according to a press release. He will help in the preparation of financial, statistical, and contractual information, coordinating contract negotiation, and preparing for arbitration hearings.  One of this last duties with the Red Sox was to help put together a study on Price prior to his signing with Boston.

  So, looking from a glance, the Blue Jays have hired an expert that will develop the conditioning, nutrition, and psychological aspects of their players, as well as a co-ordinator of the minors who has a background in working with Latin players, expanded their analytics department, and have hired a specialist in contract negotiations.   This is another sign that the Shapiro regime is in things for the long term, and while Blue Jays fans may be more concerned about the present more than the future, the organization does appear to be building a template to gain a competitive advantage for years to come.   A MLB front office is a complicated, many-headed beast, and Shapiro is at least attempting to tame that monster, and it's unlikely that he's done just yet.

   For further reading on the analytics-driven growth of MLB front offices, here is an excellent look at that trend by Fangraphs' Dave Cameron.  The Blue Jays appear to be headed in the direction of what Cameron calls a "classically hierarchical (vertical) structure."

Lifting the Lid on the 2016 Draft

stanforddaily.com photo

  It may be mid January, and the upcoming baseball season may only be little more than a faint distant whisper to those of us in Southern Ontario, but it's coming just the same.

  South of the border, college baseball season opens in late February, while high school seasons begin to open in early March in the southern states and makes its way north, all of which means that it's not too early to look at the preliminary rankings of prospects for the June MLB draft.
   These rankings will change considerably, of course, as the college and high school season progress, and we don't know a lot about what will happen when the Blue Jays turn comes up at #23 at this early point.
   The Jays actually have 3 of the first 65 picks in this lottery - two of their own, and the 57th pick for failing to come to terms with their 2nd round choice last year, Florida HS P Brady Singer.

   While some players will drop in the rankings, and others will catch a heavy dose of helium and rise up them, the top of the draft is fairly clear at the moment.  While there isn't a consensus number 1 pick, several players, including a pair of LHP's (Florida's A.J. Puk, and Florida High Schooler Jason Groome), and a brace of RHP's (Alec Hansen of Oklahoma, and Kansas HS Riley Pint), and Louisville OF Corey Ray have for the time being separated themselves from the top of the class. Since those players will likely not be around, barring injury or poor performance, come the Blue Jays turn in the first round, we'll focus our attention on a group of players in the coming weeks who have been ranked between 20-30 by sources such as MLB Pipeline, and Baseball America (once their high school list comes out).

   For now, here are some names to keep an eye on:

Cal Quantrill, RHP Stanford
   At the outset of the last NCAA season,  the son of former Jay Paul Quantrill was considered one of the top sophomores in the country, and was touted as a possible top of the 1st round pick.  A torn UCL necessitated Tommy John surgery in March,
    Quantrill was chosen by the Yankees in the 26th round of the 2013 draft, but opted to attend Stanford.  He was named Pac 12 Freshman of the Year, and made the Louisville Slugger and Perfect Game All-Freshman teams, while leading Stanford in Innings Pitched and Strikeouts.  He was the first freshman to start on Opening Day for Stanford since Mike Mussina in 1988.  After the college season, he was ranked the top Coastal Summer League prospect by BA.

   Quantrill has a four-pitch mix, all of which are projected to be at least MLB average.  His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he commands the lower part of the strike zone well with it.  His curve is ranked as being ahead of his slider for now, and his change has good fade and sink.  Scouts laud his feel for pitching and mound presence.
   At this point, Quantrill is an obvious question mark.  He still projects as a first rounder, but it's still unknown where he'll land.  He won't be at the one year mark after surgery when Stanford opens its season on February 19th, so his return to competition may be delayed.
   Stanford plays their home games at one of the most picturesque parks in all of college baseball, Klein Field, on the Stanford campus.  Many Cardinal games will be carried on the Pac-12 network, so those of you who are skilled at finding live streams can have a first-hand look at Quantrill when he gets back in action.
   The ties here are obvious:  dad Paul is a Blue Jays pitching consultant, and Cal, who like his dad grew up on the shores of Lake Ontario in Port Hope, a 75-minute drive east of Toronto.  Cal played his high school sports at Trinity College in his hometown, and has worn the Maple Leaf internationally on several occasions, winning a silver medal with the U18 team at the 2012 Worlds in South Korea.  At 6"3"/185. he has the long, lean, and athletic profile that the Blue Jays like in a pitcher.  If he picks up where he left off after his freshman year, it's likely he won't be around past the first dozen picks.  Because his season may start a bit later, and he may struggle with his command as many TJ patients do in their first few weeks/months back, he also may be in a perfect spot for Toronto to scoop the native son up.
 How and Why the Jays Might Pick Him:  
1.  He was an outstanding prospect before TJ
2.  Profiles as a starter
3.  Lots of projection left
4.  Advanced feel for pitching
5.  Bloodlines
6.  Stock may not fall so much as he may not have enough time to move up

Kyle Funkhouser RHP Louisville
   The 2014 U.S. Collegiate team was one of the strongest in recent years, featuring three players (Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, and Carson Fullmer) who would be drafted in the Top 10 the following June.  Ranking ahead of all of them at the end of that summer was Funkhouser.  During his sophomore year, he set a school record for wins, and almost matched previous school high totals for innings and K's.
   A late-season slump and a failure to drop his signing bonus saw him drop to the Dodgers with the 35th pick, and after the two sides were unable to come to an agreement, Funkhouser decided to return to school for his senior year.
   Funkhouser's control has been labeled below-average for a first-round arm, but that may be due to the movement on his four-seamer.  His two-seamer sits at 91-92, but it has great sinking action, and grades as a possible plus pitch.  He shows a four-pitch assortment that projects him to be at least a mid-rotation starter.
   At 6'2"/235, Funkhouser may not have the same body type as Quantrill's but he did not miss a start over his last two college seasons.  He has a lot to prove this season, and even if he doesn't live up to the potential he flashed as a sophomore, some organization may look at that durability and mix of pitches with the idea of drafting him as something of a project.
How and Why the Jays Might Pick Him:
1.  The philosophy may have changed with the departure of Alex Anthopoulos, but this is an amateur scouting department that likes to roll the dice.
2.  Solid innings-eater build
3.  Blue Jays minor league instructors may be able to harness his potential

Forrest Whitley RHP Texas HS
   Whitley grew almost six inches during his freshman year of high school, and added about 15 mph to his fastball.  The 6'7" San Antonian has the velocity (95) and developing secondaries to profile as a starter, and has that feel for pitching that allows him to turn a lineup over.
  Some scouts feel that his relative lack of athleticism will keep him from being a top of the draft kind of prospect, but there's a ton of projection here, if  the Blue Jays are in that kind of mood.
How and Why the Jays Might Pick Him:
1.  If they survey the prospect landscape after Whitley and come away unimpressed, here's a player worth bringing along slowly
2.  The lack of athleticism knock may drop him down some draft boards
3.  The Jays have had an excellent track record of re-shaping the bodies of young pitchers.

   The likelihood of any of the above being chosen by the Jays is a longshot.  The nature of scouting being what it is, you could look at 20 sets or rankings and come away with 20 completely different lists.  At the moment, these are three names that seem to slot into that 20-20 tier, and gives me something to follow in the coming weeks.

 

Clutchlings Notebook: Happy New Year Edition

MiLB.com photo

The days are getting longer (about a minute- split between sunrise and sunset- per day), and while in some ways these are truly the doldrums of the baseball off season, spring training, and all the promise of a new season, is not far off.
   Here are some of the developments that have taken place in the Blue Jays farm system over the past several weeks:

Boomer Collins Cricket Update
   Almost a month ago, I wrote about the former Jays farmhand who was trying to make a go of things in T20 Cricket, a fast-paced and condensed version of the sport, after being released by Toronto after three years in their organization.
   Collins is training under internationally renowned cricket coach Julien Fountain.  The two first met about a year ago, and Collins' committed full-time to the sport after being released in November. Collins received a crash course in cricket fundamentals in his home state of Texas before travelling to India in early December, in the hopes of catching on with a pro T20 side there.
   Collins, as one might expect, had a little trouble adjusting to hitting balls that bounced or were aimed at his head, but all in all, he had a positive experience.  He was ranked as a "silver" prospect (mid-tier) in a recent draft of prospects by the Pakistani Super League, but wasn't selected.
   He headed home for Christmas, which was part of the plan all along, and is hoping to catch on with a local team to further his cricket education.  He's also had at least one invitation from an English side to join them.  Whatever the case, Fountain has invested some of his own money in training Collins as part of a project to lure other former baseball players to the sport, called SwitchHit20.  Both Fountain and Collins are in this for the long run - the latter is hoping for a breakthrough, while the former has staked his reputation on this project.
   T20 is wildly popular outside of North America.  Players can make a considerable sum of money playing the game - seasons last only several weeks, but are held at different times in different countries, and players can hop from one country to another.
  Collins enjoyed the experience, despite the culture shock of moving from a Dallas suburb to the busy city of Bangalore:  "The most difficult part (of the experience) was getting across the street." He enjoyed the chance to train every day, and feels he just needs playing time to refine his skills and understanding of the game.
   Fountain posted a video to YouTube of Collins' progress while he was in India:

Gabe Noyalis

   He faces long odds to make it much past A ball, and his signing underscores the lack of pitching depth in the organization after all of Alex Anthopoulos' wheeling and dealing dating back to November 2014, but you have to have a heart of granite not to be pulling for the Jays most recent free agent signing.

   The native of Williamsport, PA, pitched for Bucknell as a freshman, and despite appearing only 7 games that year, was slated to be their closer the following season before an ankle injury cost him all of his sophomore year.

Williamsport Sun Gazette Photo

  Noyalis transferred to Misericordia, a Division III powerhouse near Wilkes-Barre PA the following year, but walked away from the game after only one season with the Cougars. Soon after, he began hitting the weight room regularly, and fell in love with lifting.  Then, he told me in a Twitter conversation this week, his old high school team needed someone to throw batting practice to them before a state playoff game last June, and "I hit 91 a few times," despite not having picked up a ball in a couple of years.  Intrigued, he threw a few more times after that, and was up to 93-94, which led to a tryout with the Phillies, but no contract offer. Noyalis threw himself into his comeback full after that, throwing every day.  His velo was up to 97, and the Braves decided to give him a look. 

  At this point, Noyalis realized how much he missed the game, and gave his 7th grade basketball coach a call to update him on things.  His coach just happened to be Blue Jays pro scout Matt Anderson:

He was a scout for the Marlins at the time and had a World Series ring with them and I remember all of us were entranced by it. But yeah I've known Matt since then, he followed my high school and college career but once he moved to Texas and I stopped playing I wasn't in contact with him until this year when I told him how things were going.

   Anderson invited Noyalis to come and throw for him in early December.  The grey, wet late fall/early winter Central Pennsylvania weather, coupled with a lack of a partner to catch him meant that he was limited to throwing sand-filled balls against a wall in his gym's basement.   Nonetheless, Noyalis flew down to Anderson's baseball camp in Texas, and threw between 95-98, and was offered a contract.

   Noyalis will be in Dunedin when training camp opens, and while it's not likely that he breaks camp with a full season team, if his velocity and command hold up, he could see time in Lansing before season's end.  After not having pitched for three and a half years, he will likely need some time to regain feel for his secondary pitches.

   Noyalis' story is somewhat reminiscent of Steve Delabar, who was out of baseball for two years after elbow problems, and after implementing an arm-strengthening program for a high school team he was helping to coach while working as a supply teacher, found his own velocity had improved.  After a successful tryout with the Mariners, Delabar made his MLB debut in 2011, and was dealt to Toronto in 2012, and while he has scuffled the last two years, Delabar represented the Jays at the 2013 All Star game.

Phil Kish Pitches on Down Under

   One of the more enjoyable things about being a minor league blogger is that you can get fairly good and consistent access to the players.  Before he was dealt, Matt Boyd was a frequent correspondent and friend of this blog.  Anthony Alford has always responded to questions, as well.

   Phil Kish is proving to be just as accessible and insightful.  Labelled undersized (at 5"10") and undrafted in 2013 after graduating from Southern University (where he obtained a finance and accounting degree), righthander  Kish had a decent first two pro seasons pitching in relief, but he struggled this year, reaching as far as High A Dunedin.

   As the 2015 season was drawing to a close, Kish had heard rumours that he might be part of the Blue Jays contingent of prospects making their way to Canberra to play in the Australian Baseball League this winter, but he didn't hear anything definite, so he was preparing to resume his internship with Ernst and Young as he worked toward an accounting designation. When he did finally get the word that he was going, Kish was, in his words, "ecstatic":

This past season I had mixed results of struggle and positive and getting this opportunity to come down here to improve my craft was a blessing. Usually after a bad year this was the last opportunity I was expecting. The Blue Jays giving me this opportunity is awesome and I can't be more appreciative. To make the most out of this experience I have to just pitch and learn my mechanics. Pitching is all about making adjustments. I am beyond excited to be representing the Blue Jays and I hope that I can compete at this level and improve my game so I can pitch in Toronto in the near future.

 In his first few outings, Kish admits that he didn't pitch as well as he would've liked, but the hits he gave up were of the groundball variety, which he says, "I'm perfectly okay with since I'm keeping the ball in the park."
   When he's on, Kish pounds the bottom of the strike zone.  I made this gif of a nasty slider he threw to an Aussie League hitter, and it got considerable attention on Twitter:

  When asked how he was adjusting to the ABL a few weeks ago, Kish responded:

You pitch how you know how to pitch if that makes sense. My game is keep the ball down and get ahead of hitters. All it is for me is to execute each pitch with authority. I'm always going to give up more hits than innings because I'm a sinker ball pitcher. Ground ball needs to be a double play for the next hitter. Real adjustments is throwing more change ups ahead and behind in the count.

   Being far from home during the winter was an adjustment in itself for Kish, as was living in a foreign country, with different currency and driving rules.  I have long maintained this is a great arrangement for Blue Jays prospects - even though Canberra is much farther away from home than Toronto is for most of them, the experience of living in a country that's similar, but different from their own gives prospects a taste of what living in Canada might be like.  At Thanksgiving the Canberra players and staff had a turkey dinner down the 3rd Base line, and when I checked in with him in mid-December as Christmas approached, he admitted, "I'm not sure if I am a fan of the Australian Christmas. I need actual cold weather to make it feel like Christmas."   He did acknowledge, however,  that his arm felt great, and he was pleased was how he was pitching.  And the results are backing that up - he had a run of four scoreless outings around Christmas, before giving up a run against Perth, but came back the next day to pitch 2 1/3 scoreless innings.
  At 26, the clock is ticking very loudly on Kish's time in the Blue Jays organization.  Just the same, the fact that they kept him after releasing some of his fellow relievers like Griffin Murphy and Arik Sikula suggests that the club still believes in the sinkerballer.

Jordan Romano Update

   I also have a soft spot for Canadian prospects.  The game has grown so much at the grassroots level in this country, thanks mainly to the efforts of Baseball Canada and National Team coach Greg Hamilton.  

independentsportsnews.com photo

   Romano is from the Toronto suburb of Markham, about a 40-minute drive away from the CN Tower.  He pitched collegiately at Oral Roberts, and the Blue Jays took the hometown boy in the 10th round of 2014. The former Ontario Blue Jay had an excellent pro debut, striking out 33 in 26 innings for Bluefield.

  As spring training opened last year, Romano had a shot at earning a spot on Lansing's roster, but a torn UCL ended his season before it began, and he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of March.  

   I've talked to him numerous times since the surgery, and he has been consistently upbeat with every check-in.  He began rehabbing the arm just a few weeks after the operation, but throwing would have to wait until the five month mark.  

   By July, he was really sounding positive.  He rehabbed his shoulder 3-4 hours per day, 4 times per week, as well as working on conditioning 6 times weekly.  This is key for Tommy John patients - the return of velocity is often attributed to the surgery, but it's the focused attention on mechanics, nutrition, and conditioning that allows pitchers to return to their pre-op form.

   By late August, Romano was finally throwing again, and by late September he was throwing 80 pitches from a distance of 45 feet three times per week, at 80% effort (although he admits he let loose with the odd throw, and it felt great).  Just this past week, he said he'll finally be throwing off of a mound by the weekend.

   If all goes well, he should be throwing breaking balls and facing live hitters by spring training, with a return to competition sometime after the end of March.  The most likely scenario would be to keep him in the warm weather at the Dunedin complex for at least the month of April, in order to see how his arm responds at extended spring training.  

    Like Kish and Noyalis, Romano has to be considered a long shot to reach the majors.  Still, for those of us who follow the minors as closely as they do MLB, they represent the heart and soul of MiLB.  None had much in the way of negotiating leverage when it came to signing their first contract; Kish and Noyalis likely received no bonus, and college senior Romano accepted a $25 000 bonus, which was almost $140 000 below slot.  Despite working for wages that are lower than a fast food worker's, even though they're among the top at their trade in North America, the dedication these players have never fails to impress.  The one thing all three have in common is their love of the game.

*********************************************************************************   If you write about Minor League Baseball yourself, and/or enjoying reading about it, I would encourage you to join the Minor League Baseball Bloggers group on Facebook.  There is a surprising amount of quality MiLB content out there by people from all walks of life.  

5 Sleeper Blue Jays Prospects

  A Sleeper prospect is typically one who possesses abundant natural talent, but for a myriad of reasons, is more about potential than performance when they acquire that label.  Sometimes, they figure it out:  for hitters, it can come in the form of a mechanical adjustment, giving them more time to either wait on a pitch, or to get more of the bat barrel through the hitting zone.  For pitchers, it can come in the form of mastering their mechanics, using a new arm slot, or finding a new grip on a pitch that leads to better bat-dodging movement. For some, adjusting to a new country, with a new language, currency, food, and customs takes time, while for others, pro ball gives them their first extended taste of failure; both situations take a while to adjust to.
  Whatever the case, until those discoveries occur (and more often than not, they don't), said prospect is a Sleeper:  one who faces long odds, but has shown enough glimpses of the tools in their kit to make them worth keeping an eye on.

  Before we start, here's a quick glimpse at some Sleepers I identified last spring:
Bryan Lizardo 3B - struggled big time in the GCL, which he should repeat in 2016.
Angel Perdomo LHP - pitched well at Bluefield, even better at Vancouver; at 21, there's not a lot of room left for projection, but he should make his full season debut this year.
Jordan Romano RHP - had a decent debut year in 2014, tore his UCL last March.  He should return to competition by April, but he may stay at Extended til the weather farther north warms up.
Jesus Tinoco RHP - pitched well at Lansing, skipping Vancouver, but was part of the package dealt to Colorado in exchange for Troy Tulowitzki.
Roemon Fields OF - started at Dunedin, made it as high as Buffalo.  No longer under the radar.



Kelyn Jose LHP
  Southpaw relievers who can hit 101 with their fastball tend to get your attention.
I admit to being a velo addict:  the sight of hitters flailing away futilely at high heat is one of the most impressive things in baseball.  They know it's coming, but they can't catch up to it.  Seeing a flamethrower live is a sight like few in sports - the pop of the catcher's mitt turns head all around the park.  Baseball has undergone rule changes and significant innovations since the days of the Cincinnati Red Stockings, but the one constant throughout that time is that battle between the pitcher and hitter.
  However, velocity is one thing, and command is sometimes entirely another creature, and pitchers who have the former but not the latter tend to bump their heads against a AA/AAA ceiling for several seasons.
  Signed as an 18 year old out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, Jose has struck out 51 batters in 43.2 minor league innings over two seasons, the last of which was in the GCL.  Jose has also walked 35 during that time, indicating that he doesn't always know where that fastball is going.
   Fastball command is a tool that makes the other pitches in a pitcher's arsenal that much more effective.  Being able to consistently throw a fastball for strikes allows a pitcher more margin for error with those secondary pitches.  As we saw with Miguel Castro in April, however, four-seam fastballs don't tend to have a lot of movement, and if a pitcher catches too much of the strike zone with it, all the velo in the world won't matter.  Hitters will time it and tag it.
  If Jose can harness his command, and develop at least one complementary pitch, he could quickly move through the system.

Chad Girodo LHP
   I've been beating around the bushes about this, so I should just come out and say it: with the struggles of Aaron Loup last year, Girodo has a shot at unseating him for the first lefty up in the bullpen job.
   Girodo was drafted in the 9th round of 2013 out of Mississippi St, and signed for an org-guy $5000 bonus.  He pitched in relief during his college career, and the Blue Jays have kept him in that role. Girodo does not blow hitters away, relying on deception and location to induce weak contact, judging by the .221 average MiLB hitters managed against him at 3 levels this year.  The sidewinding Girodo pounds the lower part of the strike zone, and his delivery can be tough for left handed hitters to pick up.


Travis Bergen LHP
   Bergen is one of those stories that I love as a prospect blogger.  Bergen was well-regarded by the scouting community, but his chances of making the majors as a starter were deemed to be limited, mostly because of his size (6', 200), and he didn't get a lot of love on draft day, falling close to org-guy range as a 7th rounder.
   After throwing 100 innings for Kennesaw State (Max Pentecost's alma mater), including leading them to a NCAA regional victory in their tournament debut as a sophomore, and following that up with a solid summer in the Cape Cod League meant that Bergen had thrown a lot of innings over an 18-month period, and the Blue Jays limited him to a pair of appearances totalling 5 innings for Vancouver after drafting him.
   But what a 5 innings it was.  Bergen missed a lot of bats and gave up mostly weak contact, striking out 11, giving up a pair of hits, and walking one in his two relief appearances.
   The cross-firing lefthanded Bergen can hit 94 with his fastball, but usually sits 88-92.  He has a slider that has been described as fringy, and a cutter that flashes as a plus pitch.  His delivery produces good arm-side run and sink:

    If the Blue Jays keep him in the bullpen, Bergen should experience an uptick in velocity, and given his command and lefthandedness, may move through the system very quickly.
   These are the kind of guys I love researching, allowing me to buy in on the ground floor of a player people may be asking "where did he come from?" a year from now.

Matt Smoral LHP
   And as much as I enjoy finding nuggets like Bergen, I enjoy writing about players who have lost their prospect shine like Smoral, and are trying to turn things around.
   Taken in the sandwich round in 2012, Smoral missed all of his senior year of high school with a foot injury, or he likely would have gone much higher.  Brought along slowly, he had a coming out of sorts in 2014, striking out 70 in 53 innings between Bluefield and Vancouver.
   Smoral was named the 7th best Appalachian League prospect by Baseball America that season, despite spending only half of it there.  They offered this synopsis:

Smoral has the potential to pitch in the front half of a rotation but will need to improve his control and changeup to reach his upside. The 6-foot-8, 220-pound southpaw has an extra-large frame and improved his athleticism and flexibility when he lost weight over the last year. His fastball sat 89-93 mph and touched 95 with above-average life when down in the zone. His slider was one of the best breaking balls in the Appy League and has at least plus potential, as he varies the shape of the offering.

   2015 promised to be the season Smoral made his debut at the full-season level - the Ohioan would have not minded the cold spring in the Midwestern League.  Back issues kept him at extended spring training, however, and after a couple of outings with Dunedin in June, Smoral was back in Bluefield, limited to 2-inning bullpen outings.  Results with the Appy League team were decidedly mixed, as Smoral gave up 14 walks, while fanning 16 in 10 innings.
   Smoral's season came to a screeching halt on August 23rd when he was hit on the side of his head by a line drive.  It was a scary moment, and while he tweeted a photo of himself complete with 8 stitches around his right eye, and assuring everyone that he was well, the Blue Jays shut him down for the year.
   Tall (Smoral is 6'8") lefthanders seem to take longer to develop, and such has been the case with this one. He will be 22 by the time spring training breaks, and this year will be an important one in his development.  Smoral will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if he's not placed on the 40-man roster by next November; the chances of that are probably almost as remote as a team selecting him in the Rule 5, but the club is facing decision-time with him - allow him to continue as a starter, or move him to the bullpen full time?

Reggie Pruitt OF
   The Blue Jays now find themselves with quite a stock of fleet, athletic centrefielders.  Pruitt joins Anthony Alford, Roemon Fields, and D.J Davis (you could even throw Josh Almonte in there) in a group of speedy ballhawks.
   The Jays took the Georgia native in the 24th round last June, and a $500K signing bonus dissuaded him from going the college route with Vanderbilt.  Already a premium defender, Pruitt runs a sub 6.5 60, and would likely give Fields, Davis, and Alford a run for their money in the 100m.  His glove is ahead of his bat at this point, and even though he got off to a hot start at the plate in the GCL, he wilted under the Florida heat in his first pro summer, finishing with a .223/.309/.289 line, and was 15-17 in stolen bases.
  Pruitt's approach at the plate has been termed inconsistent, which he will have to refine if he's to reach his possible top of the order projection.  His swing before the draft looked a little long, and his bat often was a bit late, which was likely a focus of instructors during Instructional League this fall.

Brady Dragmire LHP 
  I have to admit that Dragmire was not on my radar; a guy who Florida State League batters hit at a .313 clip in his fifth year with the organization doesn't tend to pop up on it.
   The 2011 17th round choice has posted mostly decent numbers prior to his year, almost all in relief.  Still, A-ball relievers are a dime a dozen, and I was surprised when he was named to the Jays contingent that headed to the Arizona Fall League after the season.  It was an even bigger surprise when he was named to the 40-man roster last month, although this speaks to the thinned-out depth of the system as much as anything.
   When this happens, I start to scour the internet to see what I've missed.  And maybe this chart has some clues:

   Now we're getting somewhere.  This graph suggests a guy who is often around the strike zone, and when he does give up contact, it's of the groundball variety.  And those guys tend to give up some hits, and can be at the mercy of their infield defence, which could explain the 80 hits he gave up in 63 innings.  The 20 walks he gave up this year (vs 57Ks) and the 9 (yes, 9) he allowed in 77 IP with Lansing in 2014 back up the idea that he's around the plate a lot.  His 2.52 FIP, which was less than half of his ERA, also lends support to the notion that he was a bit of a victim of circumstances largely beyond his control.
   Dragmire's 2015 campaign with Dunedin was also a tale of two seasons.  He got off to a slow start, and was sent back to Extended Spring Training.  Dragmire returned a different pitcher, particularly in July, when he struck out 22 in 17 innings.
    Dragmire experienced success in a small (9 games/11IP - in fairness, he was on a 20+-man pitching staff) sample in Arizona.  His two-seam fastball hit 94, and had great movement, and he touched 95 with his four-seamer.
    Dragmire does not profile as a typical flame-throwing reliever, although he missed a fair number of bats (14Ks) in Arizona.  He does throw a lot of strikes, and pounds the bottom half of the strike zone.  The new Blue Jays are currently tip-toeing their way around the free-agent reliever market, according to new President Mark Shapiro:

“We know we’ve got to find some alternatives and we know we’ve got to play in that market,” Shapiro said. “To play in the upper ends of that market it’s a dangerous place to play. You’d better have a lot of flexibility and your threshold for risk had better be very high.”

  Reading between the lines, it would appear that the newly risk-averse Jays have found most of the free agent bullpen arms available to rich for their tastes.  They have also made noises about changing their preferences from flamethrowers who tend to have short baseball life spans to durable pitchers who can get outs, whether that be by the strikeout or weak contact.  Dragmire may fit that mold.
   The jump from A ball to AA is the biggest in the minors, and it will be interesting to see if Dragmire can carry his success from the last half of 2015 over to a higher level next year.



   Let's face it - all of the names above are still in the longshot stage as far as an MLB career is concerned.  They are all more about projection than they are about performance at the moment.  But this is one of the parts of baseball I find the most appealing - because baseball is played every day, the players at the top of the pyramid in MLB have skills that took years to hone, giving baseball the most extensive development system in all of professional sports.  One or more of these guys may figure it out this year, or maybe next year, or not at all.  They all have the physical talent - it's the mental side: learning to deal with adversity, and how to be consistent, that determines ultimately who makes the leap and who doesn't.