Do Trades for Prospects Really Work?

Franklin Barreto - milb.com photo

  On November 28th, 2014, then-Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos dealt 3rd Baseman Brett Lawrie and three prospects for Oakland 3B Josh Donaldson.  It was not the first time Anthopoulos had dealt prospects in an attempt to bolster the major league roster, of course, and the November deal did not bring about an end to his prospect dealing.  In 4 separate deadline deals in 2015, Anthopoulos dealt a total of 10 prospects at the July trade deadline.

   At that time, many hard core Blue Jays fans had mixed feelings.  On the one hand, the club was able to pick up key pieces like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price without sacrificing a player from the 25-man roster.  On the other, the club parted with some top prospects like Jeff Hoffman and Daniel Norris, and dealt some of its prospect depth.

   By September, of 2015, however, most of that concern had long since faded away.  The Blue Jays turned their season around, playing scorching baseball down the stretch to break a two decades long playoff drought.   As the 2017 season progresses, the team's aging core is showing signs of wear and tear, and while the farm system is producing talent in abundance,  in the words of President Mark Shaprio, "Most of it is at the lower levels."  The club looks to be at the fringes of a post-season berth, at best.

   Will Shapiro and his front office colleagues be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?  Will they look to shed some contractual obligations, or will they try to once again upgrade the major league roster by dealing some of that far-off prospect depth?

   History suggests that dealing for prospects doesn't always work.  Here's a look at the deals Anthopoulos made to give us much of the current big league roster, and an analysis of the benefits they brought to the club:

November 28, 2014
   Josh Donaldson for Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Brett Lawrie.

    Donaldson has provided 17.7 WAR (BR's version) of value, an MVP award, and led the team to a pair of post-season appearances since his acquisiton.  Barreto won the Northwest League's MVP award that year at the tender age of 18, and was the centrepiece of that deal.  He made his MLB debut in June, and was returned to AAA after hitting .190/.262/.381.  Graveman did a decent job in the back of the Athletics' rotation last year, but injuries have limited him to 8 starts this year, and he's currently on a rehab assignment.  The oft-injured Noin made 6 starts for Oakland in 2015, spent all of last year on the DL, and was picked up by Milwaukee on waivers last fall.  He's been on the DL again since Opening Day.  Lawrie was dealt to the White Sox after one season, and was released early in spring training this year, and has yet to catch on with an MLB organization.
    It was sad to see Barreto go, but he was so far away (and there was considerable doubt about his eventual position), so the victors in this deal were clearly the Blue Jays.

July 28, 2015
   Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins for Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco.
   
    Tulo plugged the gaping hole at SS that was Reyes, and Hawkins stablilized the 7th inning for the club, and both were integral parts of the run to the pennant that year.  Hoffman was a 1st round pick in 2014, but was coming off Tommy John surgery.  He made 4 starts for Colorado in 2016, and now has become a mainstay of their rotation, but like many pitchers who ply their trade in Coors Field, his numbers are a bit unsightly.  Castro was an electric-armed reliever who rocketed through the Blue Jays farm system in 2014, and broke camp with the club the following year, even though he had never pitched about High A.  MLB hitters teed off on his fastball, which consistently caught too much of the plate, and he was back in the minors after a month.  Traded to Baltimore at the start of this season, Castro has been on the MLB/AAA shuffle, but appears to be sticking with the O's this time around, and has posted a 2.70 ERA in 26 innings.  Tinoco made great progress in Low A in 2015, but has struggled since then, and has yet to pitch above High A.
   Hawkins retired after 2015, and while Tulo has had his struggles with the bat this year, and is possibly out for the season after injuring his ankle this weekend,  the Blue Jays are once again clearly the hands-down winners of this deal.  His contributions on and off the field have been numerous.

July 30, 2015
   David Price for Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd
    On paper, this deal had the greatest potential to be win-win for both sides.  Price gave the Blue Jays a legitimate ace, and Norris and Boyd promised to give the Tigers some long-term rotation depth.
     Price, of course, moved on to the Red Sox as a free agent at the end of the season.  Norris had some health issues, but over the last month of 2016 appeared to be on the verge of becoming a front-of-the-rotation arm.  Boyd was never a highly-heralded prospect, but all he did as a minor leaguer was get hitters out.  He made 18 starts for the Tigers in 2016, and it was easy to pencil him in as a back-of-the-rotation guy for 2017.  Both have had their struggles this year:  Norris posted a 5.29 ERA in 16 starts before going on the DL in early July, and is rehabbing in AAA; Boyd has been on the Detroit-Toledo shuffle after making the club out of spring training, and is currently with the Tigers.
    Price led the Blue Jays to the post-season.  Norris and Boyd have not put the Tigers over the top.  If there was a winner in this deal, a slight edge would go to the Blue Jays, although they have proved they could have used some starting pitching depth this year.

July 31st, 2015
   Mark Lowe for Jake Brentz and Nick Wells.
    Lowe, along with Hawkins, helped bolster the Blue Jays pennant run in 2015.  He left for the Tigers as a free agent after the season, and has bounced to the Mariners and the White Sox, for whom he's pitching in AAA at the moment.
    Brentz was a project - a guy who hadn't pitched a whole lot before being drafted, and was still learning the craft in 2015.  Dealt to the Pirates last year, he was moved to the bullpen full time this year, and was recently promoted to AA.  In four pro seasons, Wells has not pitched above Low A.
    This is a  deal that is almost a wash, except for the fact that Lowe played some post-season ball in 2015.

July 31, 2015
   Ben Revere for Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado.
   Revere played very well for the Blue Jays for two months in 2015, and was a fixture at the top of the order, getting on base at a rate well above his career average.  Things have been pretty much downhill for him since then.
   Cordero had a fastball that could reach triple digits, but he didn't always know where it was going, and he's walked as many (32) as he has struck out in 42 innings at AA this year.  Tirado seems to have been around forever, but is only 22.  He had been moved to the bullpen that year after having difficulties as a starter, but the Phillies sent him from High to Low A last year in an attempt to move him back into the rotation.  It seems to have succeeded, as Tirado was promoted to AA recently.
    Slight edge to the Blue Jays.  Revere is long gone, but he gave the club two months of value and contributed to a pennant winner.

   There was some wringing of hands among Blue Jays fans about the number of prospects that were given up, but the truth of the matter is that the only quality players the team gave up were Barreto, Norris, and Hoffman, and all three have yet to make a big impact at the major league level.  The Blue Jays in 2015 were still able to hang onto the prospects they were least willing to part with (Anthony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, Richard Ureña, Conner Greene, Sean Reid-Foley), and yet they acquired key pieces to their pennant drive.
   Recent research by Baseball America suggests that prospect deals made at the trade deadline don't work out for the team acquiring prospects more often than they do.  Most teams now are very reluctant to give up young, controllable players whom they've already invested a great deal of time and money in. And the Blue Jays' experience in 2015 seems to point in that direction.  The short-term gain the team experienced more than cancelled out any long term consequences of the deal, and they still were able to hold on to the prospects the prized the most.

 

Cherington Adds to Blue Jays Front Office Wealth

  In the midst of a pennant race last fall, the Blue Jays made an acquisition that may have escaped the attention of most fans, but served as another piece in the puzzle that President Mark Shapiro has been putting together to shape the long-term foundation of the team by hiring former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington to become their VP of Baseball Operations.

   Cherington had taken the Red Sox from worst-to-first in 2013, leading a team that had finished last in the AL East the year before to a World Series title.  Along the way, he oversaw the addition of elite prospects like Mookie Betts, Xander Boegaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr, as well as the since-traded Yoan Moncada. After signing free agents such as Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Cuban Rusney Castillo, the Red Sox found themselves back in the cellar in 2014 and 2015, and after Dave Dombrowski was brought in to oversee the organization, Cherington chose to resign rather than continue with the Red Sox.

   Cherington spent a year away from the game, teaching sports management at Columbia University in New York (he has a Masters from Mass-Amherst in Sports Admin).  During that time, he spent considerable time contemplating his future in the game, and came to the conclusion that it did not necessarily have to be in the GM's chair.  He told the Boston Globe:

 There probably was a time in my career where I was aspiring to a title because at a certain point in your career, and if you have aspirations to be a GM, which I did, there are steps you have to do to get there,” he said. “There are titles that are of importance to some degree as you’re sort of building yourself to be prepared to be a GM and then be a GM. I was aspiring to that. I don’t feel that anymore.

  Enter Shapiro, who hired Cherington as an Advance Scout in 1998, before he left for Boston.  Shapiro knew about Cherington's revised aspirations, and jumped at the chance to bring one of the most respected player development minds in the game (prior to becoming the Sox' GM, Cherington held various positions in the Boston front office, including Coordinator of International Scouting, and Director of Player Development) to Toronto.  For Cherington's part, he said in an email that he was looking for the right situation to make his return to the game:

 When I started looking for a job last summer I was focused on finding an opportunity with the right group of people, in a place where I could make a contribution, and in a place where I could learn.  The Blue Jays opportunity checked all of those boxes and I was fortunate that they felt I could be of some help.  Since I’ve been here I’ve gotten to know the group even better and feel really fortunate to work with such a strong group of smart, humble people who are focused on getting better every day. 

     As VP of Baseball Ops, Cherington is responsible for all aspects of the Blue Jays player development program, including the newest department in the organization:

 I’m trying to collaborate with the baseball ops leadership group to help in any area that I can.  Hopefully I can do that.  I am spending more time with our player development and high performance staff and that’s an exciting area to be involved with the Blue Jays right now.  We’ve got outstanding leadership in Gil Kim, Angus Mugford, Eric Wedge, and many more.  Our staff worked tirelessly all winter to prepare for spring training and trying to figure out the best way to help players get better.  It’s been exciting to see that unfold this spring.  I’ve learned a lot already in 6 months.  

 Under former GM Alex Anthopoulos, the primary purpose of the farm system was to provide currency to upgrade the major league roster.  From November 2015 to the end of July the following year, he dealt 18 prospects in order to acquire proven MLB talent like Troy Tulowitzki, David Price, and Josh Donaldson.  In the late fall, he dealt away a passel of prospects including Noah Syndergaard for R.A Dickey, and another to the Marlins for a return which included Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle.

  While Anthopoulos' wheeling and dealing did bring post-season baseball back to Toronto, it also left the major league roster on the old side, and a farm system that had been emptied of much of its depth. Cherington would not come right out and say that such a development would not happen under his watch, but his player development roots are obvious:

Player development's job is to help players get better.  Period.  If we do that successfully then we are impacting player's lives on the field and off.  If we do that successfully we are also helping the Blue Jays by preparing players to be part of a winning Blue Jays Major League team.  Along the way there may be times when trading a minor league player makes sense.  So our job is to help players get better which in turn supports the Blue Jays mission to bring a World Series back to Canada.  

  And while the Blue Jays system did take a hit, there still is top-level talent in the system, and a decent draft last year helped rebuild it quickly.  Under Anthopoulos and departed Amateur Scouting director Blake Parker, the emphasis was on finding high-risk/high-reward athletes, including players from non-traditional markets, high schoolers with college commitments, and others whose draft stock had tumbled for a variety of reasons.  While not tipping his hand in terms of his drafting philosophy, Cherington did indicate that when it comes time to pick in the June draft, the Blue Jays will always go with the best player:

 Our amateur staff, under the leadership of Tony LaCava and Steve Sanders, works tirelessly to identify the best players available in the draft and there is a process to line those players up on the draft board in June.  Ultimately when its our time to pick we’ll take the best player.  If those players come more from a certain demographic in a given year I think that’s a function of how that particular draft unfolded, not a bias toward one demographic or another. 

   As for the international market, seen as one of Cherington's biggest success (despite the Red Sox getting dinged heavily for signing violations during his tenure) , he's confident that the combined efforts of Assistant GM Andrew Tinnish and Director of Latin American Operations Sandy Rosario will allow the Blue Jays to continue to be major players in that market.  As far as the prospects of a potential International Draft, Cherington isn't losing sleep over it:

It’s really not something we think about on a day to day basis and if there are ever further changes to the International signing rules, I know we have the people to make the right adjustments. 

   When asked where he thinks where the Blue Jays farm system ranks, Cherington prefers to be concerned about his own system, and not how it might compare to others:

I’ve been really impressed with our players and staff commitment to getting better.  And I’ve seen that happen between instructional league and spring training.  It’s exciting to see the progress.  And we have a lot of talent that is maturing.  Some of those guys have had a chance to make an impression in big league camp.  Some are doing that in minor league camp.  I’m excited to see what they do during the season.  We’re so focused on what we need to do every day to get better I haven’t spent any time thinking about other systems.  

    Mark Shapiro has wasted little time in assembling what is shaping up to be a top-flight organization.  There were not wholesale changes at first, but slowly he's been placing strong personnel in key positions throughout the organization, and has created the high performance division to help give the Blue Jays a potential competitive advantage when it comes to the development of their players.  The addition of Cherington solidifies the idea that Shapiro is endeavouring to build a system that is a model of player development.  He has brought in the likes of Cherington, Sanders,  Director of Operations Mike Murov, and Director of Player Development Gil Kim to add to a solid stable of holdovers from the Anthopoulos era like LaCava, Tinnish, Dana Brown, and Perry Minasian.  Often hampered by small-market constraints in Cleveland, Shapiro now has the resources to build an organization that could be poised to be competitive on an annual basis.  For someone who has been following the Blue Jays minor league system closely for five years, and has been a fan of the team since that snowy April day 40 years ago, this is a very welcome and exciting development. With all due respect to the management team that served under former GM Pat Gillick, there has never been such a wealth of front office talent in this organization.  And when you speak with members of that front office, you get a sense that this is a very cohesive, on-the-same-page group.  Add in the high performance division, and couple that with the anticipated changes to the minor league training complex, and the high degree of collaboration between the various facets of the player development side (minor league ops, scouting, and high performance) and the future for the Blue Jays looks very bright indeed.

Ontario Native Jon Lalonde Fills a Vital Scouting Role with the Blue Jays

    Like many teenagers, Jon Lalonde was in a bit of a mild panic as his high school days were coming to an end.
    Unsure of what he wanted to do, the sports-minded Penetanguishene (ON) Secondary School student was hopeful to somehow parlay his love of baseball into a career.  Lalonde happened to attend a seminar that Sudbury's Laurentian University put on at his school thanks to the Guidance Department, and his ears perked up when the school's Sports Administration program was mentioned.
 
    Lalonde grew up in the village of Wyevale, ON, about an hour and a half north of Toronto, outside of Midland/Penetanguishene.  He started playing fast-pitch softball in Wyevale, then baseball in Midland, but Lalonde played every sport available - except hockey.  For a sports-minded kid like Lalonde, Sports Admin was almost a natural fit.

  At Laurentian, Lalonde says he received a great education.  "The program combined the traditional elements of a commerce degree with a sports perspective," he observed.  In the fourth and final year of the program, students completed a field project which involved making a presentation to a team in a major sports market.  Past students had travelled all over the continent, but in Lalonde's year the trip was to Toronto, where his group was involved in what he would call, "One of the great things in my life" - a presentation to the Blue Jays Marketing department about gaining and preserving season ticket holders.
  Admittedly, this was not the most glamorous of topics for someone with a playing background like Lalonde, but it gave him that all important foot in the door.  After the presentation, Mark Lemmon, who was then the Blue Jays VP, Corporate Partnerships and Business Development, told Lalonde to "keep in touch," and while it took a few months after graduation before Lalonde heard anything, an opportunity came up, and he joined Corporate Partnerships in November, 1999.  Again, this was a bit removed from where Lalonde wanted to be, but he was now a part of the Toronto organization.
    One of Lalonde's responsibilities in his first job was the club was helping to organize Fuji photo day, a chance for fans to come onto the field before a game and take pictures of their favourite players.  This was more than simply a point and shoot exercise, and Lalonde had to liaise with the baseball side of the organization a fair bit.  This put him into contact with then-Assistant GM Tim McCleary, who clearly was impressed with his work.  When the Scouting Coordinator position became open on the baseball side in 2001, McClearly encouraged Lalonde to apply, and he was successful.  Off to scout school in Arizona Lalonde went that fall, where he would meet up with a young Expos employee by the name of Alex Anthopoulos.
   The Scouting Coordinator's job was largely administrative.  There were myriad reports to write and expense claims to file.  In preparation for the amateur draft, Lalonde would have to gather medicals, meet with the Scouting Director before the draft, and assign risk rates to players.  Lalonde would also have to apply for Draft IDs for players beyond the top 200, organize pre-draft meetings, and throughout the year, he would chart pitches, file more reports, and compile budgets.  He gained considerable experience in the operational side of the scouting department in very short order.
   By 2004, at the tender age of 27, Lalonde had risen to the Director of Amateur Scouting position under GM J.P. Ricciardi, who involved him a great deal in the process of recruiting and evaluating talent.  In addition to the usual administrative duties, Lalonde was able to get eyes-on the top 75-100 draft prospects every year, and form his own evaluations of them.  Due to budgetary constraints at the time, the Blue Jays were focused on low-risk, highly-signable college seniors, but Lalonde's baseball education was reaching the Masters level with the experience he was gathering.
   In 2010, with his old friend AA having taking over the GM's reigns the year before, Lalonde moved to the pro scouting side of the team, where he has remained since.
 

Simcoe.com photo

   The life of a pro scout is something of a vagabond existence.  From mid-February to the end of October, it's a series of airports, hotels, and ballpark food.  Lalonde is typically assigned five or so teams to cover during the course of a season, monitoring their roster, and watching them live several times over the course of a season.  He logs every pitch thrown by the teams he watches, and says his job is to compile as much information as he can before and during a game.  His scouting trips can last several weeks, which can be difficult on a young family (we waited until his daughter was down for her afternoon nap before we started our phone conversation, something any parent can easily relate to).  Luckily, Lalonde is home during the off season, and no doubt gets to catch up on parental duties at that time.  In the off season, he's responsible for staying up-to-date with what's going on across the league, especially as it pertains to teams he covers.  He does have some specific tasks, such as combing through the minor league free agent and reserve list for possible Rule 5 draft recommendations.  Luckily, he can do that from the comfort of home.
   Now that spring training has arrived, Lalonde's domestic duties have been curtailed somewhat.  While responding to an email this weekend, he was packing for a flight to Tampa for spring training, to take part in Blue Jays pro scouting meetings over the next few days, where the club decides the priorities and strategies for the season, and all front office personnel get a chance to re-connect.  Once the World Baseball Classic begins next month, Lalonde will find himself in South Korea, covering the first round teams of that pool (South Korea, the Netherlands, Chinese Taipei, and Israel) from March 6-10th.  After that, he will head to Tokyo to catch second round competition.  After that, Lalonde will likely head back to Florida for some spring training assignments based on the team's needs at that time, before assuming his regular season duties.

   When it comes to analytics, Lalonde admits that he doesn't go into detail with them as much as some, but he's aware of the basics, and says they serve a function, as it's "important to see a player through as many lenses as you can."  He readily admits to being open to all areas of player evaluation, and when it was suggested to him that any club that ignores the mountain of data available to them does so at their own peril, he readily agreed.


   Lalonde is very modest, and when it was suggested his extensive administrative and scouting experience would make him a good candidate for the Team Canada GM job at next spring's World Baseball Classic, he quickly demurs, and recommends fellow Canadian and Blue Jays Assistant GM Andrew Tinnish as the man for that position.  Toronto Sun columnist Bob Elliott ranked Lalonde #61 on his most recent Top 100 Most Influential Canadians in Baseball, and more importantly, praised Lalonde and fellow scout Dan Evans for their advance work on the Rangers prior to last year's ALDS.  Lalonde prepared reports on the Rangers' pitching staff, while Evans compiled data on their hitters, but he admits that relied on Evans' experience and acumen:  "Dan has such incredible experience and feel for the smallest intricacies of the game that I lean on him heavily."
   The respect between Lalonde and Evans is clearly mutual.  For his part, Evans calls Lalonde a 'trusted friend' as well as a colleague:

It has been an honour to work closely with Jon Lalonde the last two years as we did the advance scouting for our ALDS match ups.  When you have that enormous responsibility for a potential playoff match up, you work very closely with your scouting teammate for an extended period, and I have thoroughly enjoyed going through that process with Jon.

His extensive scouting experience and keen eye are so evident, and he is relentless and tireless in his quest to get things right. Highly inquisitive and competitive, Jon is never satisfied just skimming the surface. We constantly challenge each other with ideas and concepts, and that requires mutual respect and trust. I have tremendous respect for Jon as a professional and an individual, and now, as a result of all of our time together, he has become a trusted friend whom I so enjoy working closely with as a fellow Blue Jay staff member.

   As for advice to any young Canadian man or woman considering a career in baseball, Lalonde encourages them to go into it with "eyes wide open."  Pursue your passion, he urges, but go all in:

 There's nothing quite like having a genuine passion for your area of study and, if you're fortunate enough, your career opportunity. In most instances, mine included, however you need to be aware of the level of competition for jobs related to sport, and professional sport in particular. It's difficult to speak to everyone with a broad brush but I do believe that the level of commitment needed to break in and ultimately succeed in the field is significant and shouldn't be underestimated.

   Given his background, and the heights he's scaled in his time with the Blue Jays, Lalonde knows of what he speaks.   He followed his passion, and was willing to take on any task to demonstrate his commitment.

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   If an army marches on its stomach, a baseball team marches on the strength of its scouting staff.  Trades and free agency may be glitzy ways to turn a team around, but more often than not they're quick fixes.  The teams that are competitive year in and year out are the ones that recruit and develop the best prospects, supplementing that with data on their opponents put together by their advance scouts.  Solid farm systems give teams added flexibility, whether it's to promote prospects to the bigs, or to use them as currency to upgrade the major league roster. This is not new - it dates back to the early days of Branch Rickey, who said he liked to stockpile prospects and "watch them grow into money."
   Scouts are truly the unsung heroes of the game.  Working almost anonymously, they have to blend what their eyes tell them with what their gut feels.  And the information they gather has to be presented in just the right way.   Legendary scout Hugh Alexander told author Kevin Kerrane in the seminal Dollar Sign on the Muscle,

"If I'm in the same town with the team when they start a series, I go into the clubhouse before the game and talk to the team myself.  I go over all the other team's players - who's hurt, who's playing even though he's hurt.....And I talk to the pitchers - I might say, 'Bull Durham is a wild-swingin' guy, won't draw too many walks' - but I never tell them how to pitch to a hitter.  Who the hell am I to tell Steve Carlton how to pitch?  I just say, 'Hey, I've watched this club play four games this week, and this is what I saw other pitchers get their hitters out with.'

   Living out of a suitcase can't be easy, despite how glamorous it might sound.  Scouts can't call in sick - during the season, there's always a game to cover, reports to write, and expense claims to file.   Even in the presence of fellow scouts from other teams, it can be a solitary, far-from-home experience.  And yet information, which is valuable in any business, is absolutely golden in this one.  It takes a whole host of specialists to make a baseball organization to run - business-side people, and coaches, trainers, and admin staff on the baseball side.  But those people are only as good as the talent that's provided to them.  Scouts are truly the unsung heroes of any successful baseball operation.

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   A personal note.  Jon Lalonde and I are from the same area.  I grew up in Midland, Ontario, a town of 15 000 (or so) on the shores of Georgian Bay, about 90 minutes north of Toronto.  Lalonde grew up in the hamlet of Wyevale, a former whistle stop on the old North Simcoe Railway, minutes outside of Midland.  He grew up playing softball, and later switched to baseball in Midland, while I took the opposite path.  We talked for over an hour about Midland, his high school days (he attended Midland Secondary's now defunct arch-rival, nearby Penetanguishene SS), the differences between trying to hit a baseball and a softball, his Uncle Ernie (a good left-handed LF/P who I played with, and is now the butcher at my local Metro), and which Lalondes I grew up with whom he might be related to - we couldn't find a common one, Lalonde being a very popular surname in the Midland-Penetang area.
   Midland has a rich baseball history (which I've written about before), going back almost 100 years, and one day I hope to scour the archives of my now-extinct local newspaper, the Midland Free Press, to write more about it - it would be a history of the game in this country as much as it would be of Midland's. Given this baseball legacy, I think it's fitting that a product of the local ballpark has landed an important role with Canada's baseball team.

  

 

Blue Jays, Scouting Director Part Ways

Parker (r), with Assistan GM Andrew Tinnish - Canadian Baseball photo

     Toronto Blue Jays amateur scouting director Brian Parker, according to an article in Baseball America.  National cross checker Blake Davis was also let go, according to BA.

  Parker joined the Jays as a pro scout in 2009, and took charge of the draft in 2012.  In the wake of deals with the Mets and Marlins prior to 2013 which dealt away much of the farm system's upper level depth, Parker and his staff quickly rebuilt the minor league organization, selecting players like Marcus Stroman, Matt Boyd, Kendall Graveman, and Jeff Hoffman.  Last season, with then-GM Alex Anthopoulos dealing 18 prospects over 6 months, Parker deftly re-stocked the system again.  Other players drafted by Parker and still toiling in the Blue Jays farm system included Anthony Alford, Conner Greene, Max Pentecost, Rowdy Tellez, Justin Maese, Sean Reid-Foley, Jon Harris, and 2016 draftee T.J. Zeuch.

   The Indiana State Business Management grad has spent his whole career in professional sports, starting with an internship with the Colorado Rockies in 1997.  He spent time with the NFL's Buffalo Bills in media relations, before moving to the Southwest to help eventually head up the Arizona Fall League's operations. Parker joined the Montreal Expos in the player development department in 2003, and moved with the Expos to Washington, where he rose to Director of Baseball Operations before joining the Blue Jays, where he joined his friend and former fellow Expos staffer Anthopoulos.  Under Parker, the Blue Jays were at the leading edge of amateur scouting, opting for high-risk, high-reward prospects like Alford and Stroman, players from non-traditional baseball markets like Maese, and they exploited new draft rules regarding signing bonuses to draft low-leverage college seniors like Boyd and Graveman in 2013, and used savings from those picks to persuade Tellez to forego his college commitment after most clubs felt he wouldn't sign.

   When Mark Shapiro took over the Blue Jays operations side last year, changes were expected.  He brought Ross Atkins from Cleveland with him to take over the GM job, hired Gil Kim from the Rangers to head minor league operations, and persuaded Angus Mugford to leave the IMG Academy in Florida to head up the club's new high performance department.  In addition to Anthopoulos, long-time International scouting director Ismael Cruz left the club last fall for a similar position with the Dodgers.

  What does this mean for the Blue Jays?  Likely a slight shift in philosophy, but nothing fans would notice right away.  The club has been a solid drafter and developer of prospects, and with Shapiro's past emphasis on development, not much is like to change in that regard.  Picks like J.B. Woodman and Josh Palacios this June shows that this is still an organization that covets upside.

   As for Parker, he has a solid resume, and accomplished a great deal in his four years of running the amateur scouting side.  He should land another job fairly quickly.  Shapiro garnered considerable scorn from some Blue Jays fans on social media after taking over and making a fair number of changes prior to this season, but much of that was to be expected in the wake of a regime change, and with the team in first place and the next wave of prospects ready to make an impact at the MLB level in 2017 or 2018, it's hard to argue with the results.  Sportsnet suggests that a rumour is making the rounds that Oakland assistant scouting director Michael Holmes, who was  a teammate of Atkins' in college, may be tapped to replace Parker.
 
 

Blue Jays Quietly Building a Strong Organization

Gil Kim
National Post photo

   A Major League Baseball team's off-field personnel roster encompasses many people, with a wide variety of skills and backgrounds.  There are those who specialize in scouting, while others have expertise in instructing and developing minor leaguers, and more and more teams are building analytics departments. If each of those groups pull on their oars in their own direction, the result for the organization will be chaos, and the team will be sailing in circles on second division seas for years.  It takes a concerted effort for all of these employees to be on the same page, and to work toward a common goal.

   Mark Shapiro has taken more than his fair share of heat since he took over as President at the end of the season, effectively becoming the face of the franchise.  A slumbering fan base had been re-energized, and thousands more lapsed fans scrambled aboard the Blue Jays band wagon, but the elation of October baseball turned to the November blues for many when GM Alex Anthopoulos, opted not to accept a new contract when his expired at the end of October, and free agent David Price, who would have been a difficult sign even if AA had remained with the organization, bolted for the Red Sox.

    AA was a tough act for Shapiro to follow in the eyes of many.  Anthopoulos was the (kind of) local boy who made good, a guy who worked his way up from interning the Expos mail room to running the nation's baseball team.  And where Anthopoulos was effusive (if not evasive) with the media, Shapiro is concise, and not afraid to be blunt - his comment that a grass playing surface at the Rogers Centre was not a priority may have been correct, but it sure did not play well with some.  To his credit, Shapiro did not tiptoe around the issue, however, or offer vague promises somewhere down the road.  Still, this rankled with some fans, who have turned Shapiro their own personal Rogers-bashing pinata.


   So, while fans and the media may be complaining about the failure to sign Price, or any other remaining free agents, and the fact that departing President Paul Beeston's warm and fuzzy assurance about grass coming to the Dome by 2017 seem to ignore the major engineering issues that will come with that project, Shapiro has been quietly revamping the organization, particularly the player development side.

   His first and most notable hiring was Ross Atkins, his VP of Player Personnel in Cleveland, who was brought over to fill the same role in Toronto.  Despite many fans' misgivings about the new guy bringing along one of his own to run the team, Atkins' story is one of shrewdness and determination.   Atkins has an impressive record as a drafter and developer of talent, with the Indians now boasting one of the deepest farm systems in baseball.  While the Blue Jays pennant run filled the Rogers Centre (and Rogers' coffers) unlike at any time since they took ownership of the Jays over a decade ago, the heavy toll it took in terms of prospects clearly did not set well with the corporation - hiring Atkins is proof that this is a team that wants to work towards being a model of player development.

  Atkins' hiring was just the first of several for the Blue Jays.  Just before Christmas, the team announced that analyst Joe Sheehan was promoted to Director of Analytics, taking over a newly-created department.  The Blue Jays, under Anthopoulos, under-utilized Sheehan, and lost several promising younger analysts and interns when they proved reluctant to use their data interpreting skills for much more than figuring out if a player would be a good fit in the clubhouse.  The Indians, of course, with their proprietary baseball information system DiamondView, were pioneers in developing the analytical side of the game.  Shapiro protegee Neal Huntington married the best of traditional and analytical methods shortly after taking over as GM of the Pirates, and the club was named organization of the year by Baseball America for its ability to find value in players, and new methods of playing the game.  Travis Sawchik's excellent Big Data Baseball detailed how the Pirates were able to blend analytics and traditional baseball methods seamlessly.


  Early in the New Year, the Blue Jays announced the hiring of Angus Mugford as the head of their new High Performance division, responsible for the mental and physical development of all Blue Jays players.  Mugford has an impressive resume, having worked as a sports psychologist at the famed IMG Academy in Florida. His plan is to expand the department, hiring another psychologist, and experts in nutrition and sport science. The whole performance coach issue is not new to the Jays - hitting guru Steve Springer has done an excellent job working with Jays prospects on the mental side of the game, but the hiring of Mugford is a huge investment in the players in the organization, and takes the sport science angle to a higher level.

   The hirings continued last week when the Blue Jays hired world-travelling Gil Kim from the Rangers (who he was scouting for) to become their first-ever Director of Player Development, overseeing the club's minor league operations.  Kim has extensive playing experience from time spent in the Netherlands, China, Spain, and Venezuela, soaking up as much baseball knowledge as he could at each stop.  Like Atkins, Gil speaks Spanish, and has the ability to develop a rapport with Latin players, which gives an indication about where the team may be headed as far as scouting is concerned.  The club did lose Ismael Cruz to the Dodgers after the season ended, and while they may decide to promote his replacement from within, the Indians and Director of Latin American operations Ramon Pena parted ways last week, and it may be just a matter of time before he's introduced in that role with the Blue Jays.

   The most recent hiring this past weekend was Mike Murov in yet another newly created post, that of Baseball Operations Director.  Murov had been with the Red Sox since 2010, and will be responsible for creating and implementing decision-making processes, according to a press release. He will help in the preparation of financial, statistical, and contractual information, coordinating contract negotiation, and preparing for arbitration hearings.  One of this last duties with the Red Sox was to help put together a study on Price prior to his signing with Boston.

  So, looking from a glance, the Blue Jays have hired an expert that will develop the conditioning, nutrition, and psychological aspects of their players, as well as a co-ordinator of the minors who has a background in working with Latin players, expanded their analytics department, and have hired a specialist in contract negotiations.   This is another sign that the Shapiro regime is in things for the long term, and while Blue Jays fans may be more concerned about the present more than the future, the organization does appear to be building a template to gain a competitive advantage for years to come.   A MLB front office is a complicated, many-headed beast, and Shapiro is at least attempting to tame that monster, and it's unlikely that he's done just yet.

   For further reading on the analytics-driven growth of MLB front offices, here is an excellent look at that trend by Fangraphs' Dave Cameron.  The Blue Jays appear to be headed in the direction of what Cameron calls a "classically hierarchical (vertical) structure."

Perspective on the Josh Donaldson Trade - One Year Later

Franklin Barreto
recordnet.com photo

  I remember it like it was just yesterday:  word came out via Twitter on a Friday night in late November that the Blue Jays had acquired Josh Donaldson from the Athletics, in return for Brett Lawrie and a package of minor leaguers.
   As someone who follows the day-by-day progress of players in the Blue Jays system, I held my breath a bit to see who would be in that package.  It was easy to figure that a top prospect would be going to the West Coast, with maybe some mid-level guys included.  Daniel Norris was the obvious first name to come to mind, but it was a bit surprising to see Franklin Barreto as the player the Athletics wanted in return. After a scintillating 2014, Norris was MLB-ready, or close to it.  Barreto, the Northwest League MVP at the tender age of 18, was still a couple of years away from making his MLB debut, and it's hard to see most GM's thinking that far into the future.  Except Billy Beane is not most GMs, and obviously felt the young Venezuelan, whose ultimate position in the majors is still a question, was willing to wait.
   Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin were not huge surprises.  Graveman had a 2014 that was the equal of Norris' in terms of ascent, but the feeling likely was that he had reached his ceiling, and the Blue Jays already had a fair stock of back-of-the-rotation arms.  Nolin, whose inability to stay healthy had to have cost him in terms of prospect status, was a bit of a victim of a numbers game, with fellow southpaws Norris, Matt Boyd, and Jairo Labourt all ahead of him.  Lefty starters in the Blue Jays system now, of course, are something of an endangered species.
   And while it was sad to see a good Canadian boy like Lawrie go, it was fairly plain to see that the club had run out of patience with his injury-riddled, underachieving ways.  Since his debut, he had shown flashes of brilliance, but on the whole had underwhelmed with his performance.  His departure, along with that of Barreto, served to remind that baseball players are assets, and if a GM feels he can improve his roster by dealing one or more of them, he will do it.
    Of the package of prospects, Barreto was the prospect I found the most difficult to see depart.  I had followed his progress since he signed with the organization in 2012, followed his progress in the GCL in 2013.  When he was called up to Bluefield late that season, Clinton Hollon, who had been promoted along with Barreto, tweeted about how young Frankie, who was still not all that fluent in English, was wandering around the Tampa airport, unsure of how, where, or when he was going to catch his flight to the Appalachians.  The following season, he was the top player in a league filled with recent college grads 3 and 4 years older than himself.  The sky appeared to be the limit, and even though I had yet to see him play live, when friends and followers asked which prospect excited me the most, it was this teenaged Venezuelan.

   You can't argue about the return the Blue Jays got for that package of players, of course.  Donaldson became only the 2nd player in club history to capture an MVP award, and his season stands with George Bell's 1987 and Carlos Delgado's 2003, and Jose Bautista's 2010 campaigns as the best by a position player since the Blue Jays' inception.  It's hard to know where to start when talking about Donaldson's season.  He was the first player to score over 120 runs and drive in as many since Albert Pujols in 2009. And he didn't just do it with the bat, either:  his 11.4 Defensive Runs Saved ranked 3rd in all of MLB.  His fiery, dive into the stands for a foul ball competitive spirit helped lift the team to its first playoff berth in 22 years.

   Lawrie was considered one of the top prospects in baseball when the Blue Jays acquired him for Shaun Marcum before the 2011 season.  The only blemish on Lawrie's resume was a question about where he would play - drafted out of a Vancouver-area HS as a catcher, he was converted to a 2nd Baseman by the Brewers.  The Blue Jays moved him to 3rd, and packed him off to their-then AAA affiliate in Las Vegas.  He made his MLB debut in August, and gave fans starved for a homegrown star plenty to dream about with his .293/.373/.580 line in 43 games.
   Lawrie just could not stay off the Disabled List after that, playing 125 games the following year, but only 107 in 2013, and 70 in his final year in Toronto.  His numbers tailed off in each successive year as well, and by 2014 the former 1st round pick was barely a league average player.
   What happened to a player of such promise?  For starters, Lawrie did not fit the power profile of a corner bat, and it's curious to know why Toronto felt he could be.  He did hit 18 Home Runs in the rarefied air of Las Vegas over a little more than half a minor league season, but his slugging totals never put him in the top tier of Hot Cornermen.  Did he know that, and press harder to overcome that, or did the pressure of playing in front of his fellow Canucks cause him to try too hard in a game where sometimes less is more?  Whatever the case, Lawrie's walk rates trended down every year during his time in the blue and white, and his strikeout rate went the opposite direction.  Either through his own over-aggressiveness, or by pitchers challenging him from the start, he had 0-1 counts almost 65% of the time, meaning that he was more often than not facing pitchers; counts.  More of a line drive than a fly ball hitter,  Lawrie was never able to take advantage of the Rogers Centre's hitter-friendly dimensions.  Unlike Jose Bautista (who posted the lowest line drive rate among all MLB hitters this year at 13.9%), or even Donaldson, Lawrie was not able to add some loft to his swing and put some balls into the Rogers Centre jetstream.
   Lawrie's numbers did not figure to improve in the spacious O.co Coliseum, and they didn't in 2015, although he played in a career-high 149 games, 25 better than his high with the Blue Jays.  His steady descent into the realm of a replacement-level player continued, however.  Lawrie's OBP and OPS were both below league average, and his Walk and K rates put him among the lowest contact makers in the game. His defence was not a saving grace, either, as his -8.7 Defensive Runs Saved ranking put him ahead of only the largely immobile Pablo Sandoval among MLB 3rd Basemen. Lawrie did establish career highs in Home Runs (16) and RBIs (60).

   Graveman is who he is - a back of the rotation arm who has the potential to eat up some innings.  In a bit of an up and down year, he made the team out of spring training, was sent down for a month of AAA action at the end of April, and was back to stay for good in June.  Graveman went on a two-month run following his return to the bigs, posting a 2.01 ERA in 8 starts.  A strained oblique put him on the DL in late August, and the Athletics opted not to bring him back with the team out of contention.
  Graveman had a respectable 50% Ground ball rate, but gave up a lot of medium and hard contact (81.6%), and not much (15.4%) of the soft variety.  Simply put, he didn't miss as many bats in the big leagues as he did in his rise through the minors last year.  He has to be considered a strong candidate to land a mid-rotation job again next year.  Graveman is very athletic, and is capable of making the adjustments necessary to avoid barrels on a greater basis than he did in 2015.

   Nolin was unable to remain healthy in 2015, tossing only 47 AAA innings before getting a September call-up.  He pitched reasonably well in 6 starts, but his velocity was in the mid-80s, and he had trouble limiting his walks, giving up 12 in 26 innings.  Once upon a time, he profiled as one of those innings eaters, but over the past several years, the innings have eaten him.  The 119 innings he threw at several levels (including the Arizona Fall League) last year is the highest total he's managed since turning pro in 2010.  It's hard to see Nolin being anything than a fringy major leaguer at this point, unless he can stay healthy long enough to see some regular work.

   Which brings us to Barreto, the likely centrepiece of the deal from Oakland's perspective.  Skipping Low A, Barreto played at High A Stockton this year, and overcame a slow start and injuries which limited him to 90 games to post a decent line of .302/.333/.500.  And while there was some concern about the consistency of his swing, it's important to remember that Barreto was playing in his first year of full-season ball at the age of 19.
   Barreto was a much-heralded youth player in his native Venezuela, and was already well-known in baseball circles when the Blue Jays signed him in 2012.  He was ranked the Northwest League's Top Prospect last season, when he also cracked Baseball America's Top 100 for the first time.  This year, he had made it all the way up to the Top 25 (at 22nd), and was named the California League's 2nd Top Prospect.  A position switch is drawing very near for Barreto, who has neither the footwork or arm to stick at Short - his Venezuelan League team has played him in the Outfield during this winter league season.  Just the same, he barrels up balls frequently, and still profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat.

   Who "won" the trade, then?

Obviously, Toronto.  Barreto is a future blue chipper, Lawrie may still turn things around (he's only 25), and Graveman and maybe even Nolin will give the Athletics some innings.  But Donaldson was almost a 9 WAR player this year, and with another year of team control will provide a 2016 of similar value.  And even if you wait the customary 3-4 years to judge a trade, Toronto will still have gotten the better of Oakland. Donaldson has proven to be a franchise player - one whose impact on the team was felt on and off the field. He set an example not only to his teammates, but to all players in the organization with his work ethic - only a week into Spring Training last year, I asked Anthony Alford, who was in his first big league spring camp with the team, who impressed him the most, and he said Donaldson without hesitation.  Barreto was likely the centerpiece of the deal from an Oakland perspective, so to be fair, we have to say that Toronto won the deal for now.  Breaking a two decades-plus playoff drought is the added component to evaluating this trade. No disrespect to Lawrie, but this team probably does not break through even with him in the lineup for 149 games.  Donaldson brought a desire to win that seemed, to a fan, to be lacking in previous years - a penchant for clutch hits, daring baserunning, and diving into the stands that lit a serious fire under this team, and only intensified when the club was drastically upgraded at the trade deadline.

   In many ways, the deal captured the essence of both  Alex Anthopoulos and Beane.  The former, who espoused the roll-the-dice strategy when it came to trades and draft picks, opted to patiently build up the farm system, and then use its depth to strengthen the big club.  The latter showed that he's not afraid to deal a player whose affordability window is rapidly closing, even if it's likely that player will succeed with his new team.  Both, of course, are no longer GMs, with Beane now running the baseball side from the executive suite in Oakland, and Anthopoulos looking for a similar gig elsewhere.  There's little doubt that both would probably make that deal again.

   If re-signing David Price is the first task of the new management team of Tony LaCava and Mark Shapiro, locking up Donaldson to a long-term deal should be the second.  Or maybe even the first.

A Look at a Trio of Promising Arms

Kyle Castle/MiLB.com photo

  I've written a great deal about the approach to the June draft that the Toronto Blue Jays have taken in the tenure of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  It has been flexible, and changed in response to new draft rules, and fluctuating draft crop quality, but one thing has held firm:  this is an organization that is not afraid to roll the dice.  Not afraid to look for players in non-traditional markets (Anthony Alford), players with concerns about height (Marcus Stroman), players with college commitments (Daniel Norris), and senior season role change players (Matt Boyd).
   Two elements unify almost all of their draft choices: projection and athleticism.  They will take a player that other teams might pass on if they see those two qualities in abundance.

   Projection is the ability to visualize a player not as what he is now, but what he might be in three to four years time, with a transformed body and, in the case of pitchers, streamlined mechanics.
  Athleticism is the ability of that player to make the changes necessary to make that projection a reality.

   This would explain, of course, the Blue Jays preference for drafting high school players.  For one, scouting a pitcher is relatively easier than scouting a hitter.  Scouts can quantify a pitcher's performance:  delivery, velocity of pitches, plane on his breaking ball, etc.  The unevenness of pitching, especially at the high school level, can make evaluating hitters more of a subjective process.

   Secondly, while some teams aren't afraid of letting colleges develop their talent, and there are some highly-regarded programs in terms of pitcher development, the Blue Jays are part of a group of teams that prefers to get their pitchers as soon as possible, getting them into pro ball and refining (or in some cases, re-making) their mechanics before they learn bad habits in college.

   Over the past few days, thanks to milb.tv, I was able to watch three pitchers who took different routes to pro ball, but all have that athleticism and projection in common:   2013 7th rounder out of Santa Monica HS, Conner Greene, 1st round pick Jon Harris from Missouri State (the Jays had drafted him out of high school in the 33rd round in 2012), and 2011 International Free Agent Angel Perdomo.

  Greene was 6'3", and all of 165 pounds when the Blue Jays drafted him.  He's added about 20 lbs to his frame since that time, and has been on a rapid ascent in the system this year.  Beginning the year with Lansing, striking out 65 hitters in 67 innings, Greene was getting stronger with every start in his first year of full season ball.  Promoted to Dunedin at the beginning of July, he burst onto the prospect radar with a 7-inning, 10 strikeout effort a month later, that earned him a promotion to AA New Hampshire.  A bump in curveball velocity was responsible for much of that:

Over past week, #BlueJays Conner Greene has added 7 mph to his curveball. Used it a bunch getting career-high 10 Ks tonight.

— Jake Seiner (@Jake_Seiner) August 7, 2015

  Heading into his New Hampshire debut, the 20-year old Greene had not given up an earned run in his last three starts, a stretch of 18 innings.  He survived a rocky first inning, in which his first five pitches were balls, aided by a 4-6-3 double play.  In the second, he needed only 7 pitches to exit the inning, helped again by a 6-4-3 twin killing.  After a tidy nine-pitch third, Greene ran into a bit of trouble in the 4th, hitting 96 on the gun to strike out Cleveland's top pick from last year, Kyle Zimmer, and then inducing his third double play of the night to escape the inning unscathed.
   Greene cruised through the 5th and 6th, attacking the strike zone better than he had earlier in the game, his confidence obviously growing.  He left after 6 shutout innings, giving up only 3 hits, walking 3, and striking out 1.  Greene threw 70 pitches on the night, 43 for strikes.  He induced 9 ground ball outs, while giving up only 3 flyball outs.  He had only two swinging strikes on the night, but did not give up much hard contact - the video quality tailed off late in the game, but I counted only two hard hit balls on the night against him.
   With the vacancies created by the Blue Jays trade deadline deals, there is now room for up-and-comers like Greene.  His fastball/sinker/curve combination plays well, and with runners on, there is always the threat of the double play ball.
  Here's the inning-ending ground ball that Greene finished his start with:

   I didn't chart the piggyback start of Harris and Perdomo, in order to get a general impression of them first.  I have to add that the video quality from Hillsboro was excellent - good camera angles, picture quality, and even replays.  Kudos to that organization, and let's hope Lansing and Vancouver can eventually come up with video as well.

   The Blue Jays were thrilled to get Harris with the 29th pick of the first round.  Here's Baseball America's scouting report on the tall right hander:

 He stepped into the Bears' weekend rotation as a freshman and had immediate success, but he's now a significantly more physical pitcher and the fastball that quickly dipped to the mid-80s when he was in high school now sits at 91-93 mph all day and he will touch 95. Harris mixes in a pair of breaking balls, a 12-to-6 curveball that flashes plus and a solid-average slider that he is able to throw for strikes. His changeup is a potentially average pitch as well, and some scouts have seen each secondary pitch flash plus. Harris missed two starts with an ankle injury but pitched a complete-game shutout in his return from injury, answering any questions about his health. Harris has pitched deep into games consistently this year. He's worked into the eighth inning of eight of his last nine starts and was averaging 110 pitches an outing this year. Harris' control is still shaky at times--he's walked 3.2 batters per nine innings but he also generates lots of swings and misses (10.8 strikeouts per nine innings).

  Harris has had only modest success with Vancouver this year, but not much was expected from him after throwing over 100 college innings.  His pitch count has been limited, but his most recent start against Hillsboro showed much of what BA reported about him.  He struggled a bit in the first two innings, and needed both a nifty 4-6-3 double play on a slow roller, and a pair of sparkling defensive plays by 3rd Baseman Justin Atkinson to get out of trouble, but he began pounding the bottom of the strike zone in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th, and while he gave up 4 hits in this outing, only 2 were balls that were hit hard, and one was an opposite field, down the line double.  His fastball peaked at 93.
   Harris can get out of synch with his windup, and he loses the strike zone for a few pitches as a result.  He was able to make adjustments to his delivery, and came up with his best pro outing, shutting Hillsboro out on over 5 innings, walking a pair, and striking out 4.  We have not seen the best from Harris in his first pro season, but this was a glimpse of maybe what to come next year.
   Video of the final out of Harris' outing:

   As good as Harris was on this occasion, he was outshone by newly promoted lefty Angel Perdomo.  The 6'6" Dominican has been on my radar for a little over a year.  The 2011 International Free Agent was not a huge bonus signing, and he pitched in this game like he had something to prove.  Brought along slowly by the Jays, he didn't make his stateside debut in the GCL until last year, and after demonstrating good command at Bluefield, he got the call to the Pacific Northwest.
   Perdomo has a nice, loose, and easy delivery, somewhat reminiscent of Aaron Sanchez - but with far more control.  Coming into the game in relief of Harris in the 6th, Perdomo allowed only a walk through four innings, and threw first-pitch strikes to 12 of the 13 hitters he faced.  His length allows him great extension on his pitches, and gives his fastball some late life.  The Hillsboro play-by-play man gave no indication as to Perdomo's velocity, but the Hops' hitters were overmatched against the 21 year old, who retired 7 of his 12 outs via the strikeout.
   This was an impressive outing.  It was only one game, but Perdomo already shows superb command of his fastball.  Time will tell with his secondaries, but this is one live arm.  It's unfortunate that there's no video clip to share, because of the these three strong performances by Blue Jays prospect pitchers, this was the one that stood out the most.

   Greene is by far the closest to MLB ready of the three, but will likely need at least another year of seasoning in the minors.  Harris and Perdomo should both start in full season ball next year, with their starting point being either Lansing or Dunedin.  Harris, despite his struggles, is the more polished of the pair, and may move quickly this season if he's successful.  The Blue Jays ultimately may have to decide if Perdomo is more effective in a relief or starting role.

A Look at Chase De Jong

      

The Toronto Blue Jays have become well known for drafting and developing a certain type of pitcher since Alex Anthopoulos took over as GM in 2009, and overhauled the scouting department:  tall, lean, and athletic.

  The Blue Jays are not married to that concept, and as Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna (although he's radically transformed his body since Tommy John surgery) have proven, they can scout outside of that box, but for every Stroman, there's an Aaron Sanchez and a Miguel Castro, and for every Osuna there's a Jeff Hoffman, Matt Smoral, and a Sean Reid-Foley.
    The reasoning for scouring the hemisphere for this type of pitcher is understandable.  The length allows them to develop a downward plane of their fastballs, which causes the hitter to have to change his focus during the ball's flight to home plate, creating a greater margin of error for a swing and miss, or weak contact.  Tall pitchers (like Castro and Sanchez, especially) can create a bit of an optical illusion because of their extension that hitters call "late life"; hitters have a fraction of a second less to track Castro's fastball, so it appears to "jump" on them because the ball is on them sooner than they realize.
   The lean body type allows the pitcher to have a lower-maintenance physique, which is less prone to injury, and more able to handle the wear and tear of a heavy workload.  One of the few negative things scouts had to say about Osuna was his formerly chunky build.  Medical science is still learning about the factors that precipitate torn ulnar collateral ligaments, but surely an untuned body has to be one.  A heavier pitcher may not necessarily have the musculature to support that weight during the course of repeating a pitching motion thousands of times during a season.
   The athleticism allows the pitcher to repeat his delivery consistently, and maintain a consistent arm slot for their deliveries, while maintaining a bit of deception for the hitters.  At times, a prospect like Daniel Norris comes into the organization with mechanics that are not optimal, but their athletic ability allows them to learn a new way to throw the ball, as well as the confidence to see them through the inevitable setbacks they will encounter as a result.  Athleticism also allows the pitcher to land in a good position to field any balls that come their way.

    I had the opportunity, thanks to milb.tv, to watch Chase De Jong's start this week against Great Lakes.  De Jong, taken in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft, fits the bill for this prototypical Toronto type of pitcher, at 6'4", 205.  Even though he's repeating the Midwest League, there's a great deal to be enthused about, given this start, and the one he threw the week before.  Here's a scouting report from prior to his draft year:

A USC commit, DeJong sits in the high 80s, topping out in low 90s. With a lot of projection left in there, Dejong looks to throw much harder as he fills out his tall, lean frame. He already possesses a hard curve with bite and feel for a changeup and he looks to be a smart pitcher who pounds the strike zone. He works downhill well, getting over his front side, and has an easy arm, remaining very balanced throughout. While not an exceptional talent at the moment, DeJong is the kind of high school arm that could be a completely different pitcher in two years thanks to more physical development and experience in the minors. He isn't the flashiest high school prospect, but has some of the higher upside in the class and shows a good balance of present skills and projectability.  He has the potential to be a solid starter, with the potential for three above average to plus pitches.

   The Blue Jays rolled the dice with De Jong, as they have with so many other picks in the Anthopoulos era.  Because of his USC pledge, De Jong was considered a tough sign - his father is a medical doctor, and his mother is a M. Ed. holder and a middle school guidance counsellor, and some teams obviously felt that education would come first, causing him to drop from a likely sandwich round pick to the 81st overall.  A $620 000 signing bonus offer helped to talk him out of his college commitment.
    De Jong made his pro debut in 2012, and after a pair of promising campaigns in rookie ball, skipped Vancouver and was sent to Lansing for full season ball last year.  And to put it mildly, he struggled.  After a rough April, De Jong seemed to be putting things together in May, but scuffled for much of the rest of the season before being shut down in early August.  Around the plate much of the time, De Jong gave up 113 hits in 97 innings, but walked only 22.
   Understandably, the Blue Jays wanted De Jong to repeat Lansing this season.  Since he barely tops 90 with his fastball and relies on his command, the organization has had him working on a two seamer to get some more movement on his fastball.  His first start of the season showcased the new pitch, as he struck out 9 Lake County hitters before leaving after reaching his pitch count with two out in the 5th on Lansing's Opening Day.
   The camera angle at Great Lakes provides an excellent view of the pitcher from center field, but isn't at a high enough angle to show movement.  De Jong, as is his custom, was around the plate for much of his five inning stint.  He had trouble commanding his curve at times, throwing it up in the zone.  His four seamer also tended to float a bit up in the strike zone, but he owned the bottom half with his two seamer, and while he wasn't as dominant as he was in his first start, De Jong still was impressive, allowing a run on three hits, while walking one and striking out five.
   De Jong has a smooth, easy delivery, and consistently repeats it.  He lands in a good fielding position.  Since he doesn't overpower, command and movement will be the keys to any hopes he has of advancing in the organization.  While velocity and missing a lot of bats advances prospects faster, Mark Buehrle proves that there's a lot to be said for changing speeds, command, and guile.

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  I also got my first look at Catcher Danny Jansen, and while he's struggled with the bat like many of his young teammates have, I can understand the rave reviews he's earned for his skills behind the plate.
   A big target at 6'2", 210 lbs, Jansen is an effective framer of pitches already, and that skill will only improve as he learns his Lansing pitching staff better.  He is a good blocker of balls in the dirt, and is surprisingly agile for a kid his size.  Jansen gets out to field choppers, bunts, and slow rollers very well.  He handles pitchers well, and has been a contributor to De Jong's success, catching both of his starts so far. Jansen has yet to record his first MWL hit after 18 PA's, but he has hit everywhere he's played, so that may only be a matter of time.  And four walks are included in that total, so he's showing some good strike zone judgement. Max Pentecost may reach the majors before Jansen, but there's a lot to like with this just-turned 20 year old.

Clutchlings' Revised Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects

   The laptop had no more than cooled off after we published our first Top 10 list a few months ago, when the Blue Jays traded Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Brett Lawrie to Oakland for Josh Donaldson.  While we hated to see Barreto, in particular, go, the addition of Donaldson makes an already-potent top half of the batting order that much better.
   Given that Barreto and Graveman were in that Top 10, and given some other developments over the past few weeks, we decided to revise that list.  Noticeable for his absence is OF Anthony Alford, who just missed the cut.  Watching the youngster against the veteran Australian League pitchers this winter has made us realize that he's a bit further away that we had originally thought.  By his own admission, Alford was too aggressive at times, and the ABL pitchers made him pay.  Still, the experience will only pay off for him down the road, and if you think Dalton Pompey plays some highlight-reel defence, wait until you see Alford and his Dysonian glove cover centerfield.


#1  Daniel Norris, LHP
   Norris has become something of a folk hero this off-season, with his shaggy beard and Westfalia van of the same name.  Personally, I don't find it odd at all that a young man his age loves the outdoors and adventure, but some in the media are playing up that granola-ish image. The problem with promoting such an image is that intends to become a lasting impression for some, which is a shame, because Norris is more than a ball player.  He's a bright, articulate, thoughtful young man who is quite interested in the world around him. Let's hope the media doesn't turn him into something of a caricature.  Former Cards and Brewers C/DH Ted Simmons once said of his years in the late 60s at the University of Michigan, "(it was) a time when I learned more how to function as a member of society, and less as someone who was trying to hit the curveball." And in the world of baseball, it takes a lot of courage to think like that.
   After hammering out his control issues and learning to trust his fastball in Low A in 2013, Norris rode a rocket to the big leagues last year.  Bone chips in his elbow that had to be removed after the season cost him some velocity when he was called up to the Blue Jays in September, but it was impressive how he used his guile and secondary pitches to get outs just the same.
   Norris led all minor leaguers with a 11.8/9 strikeout rate this year.  Sitting between 91-95 with his fastball, he touched 97 on occasion.  His slider and change project to be plus offerings, and he lands in a good fielding position after his delivery.  Norris is the total package.
  About the only thing that Norris has to work on is economizing his pitch count, and lasting deeper into games.  If he has proven that he is capable of doing that this spring, he should break camp with the Blue Jays.  If not, he will head to Buffalo for more seasoning, but his stay there may not be all that long.

#2 Aaron Sanchez
  The ascent of Sanchez, while not as meteoric as that of Norris, was still a welcome development last year.
  It's not easy wearing the crown of Top Prospect for as long as Sanchez has, and the team's minor league development staff have put considerable work in helping him harness his abundant natural ability.
   Sanchez, to put if bluntly, has had troubles keeping his walk totals down as a minor league starter.  With the big league bullpen in shambles, the club converted Sanchez to relief shortly after promoting him to Buffalo.  After a couple of appearances, he found himself on a big league mound in Toronto.
   Sanchez was lights out in relief.  With his pitch repertoire pared down to his sinker (thrown 60% on the time while in the majors), and his fourseamer (23%), Sanchez was brilliant for two months in the Toronto bullpen.
   The dilemma now becomes should he be stretched back out as a starter, and compete for the 5th starter's job with Norris and others?  The answer for now seems to be yes.
   Sanchez throws with a nice, easy delivery, and the ball seems to explode out of his hand.  There are concerns with how short his landing is, as the club has shortened the stride in his delivery to help him keep on top of the ball.  The concern, among some, is that this delivery puts unnecessary strain on his shoulder, and an injury may only be a matter of time.
   If Sanchez struggles with his control in spring training, will the club send him back to Buffalo to get things ironed out, or will he become a back of the bullpen arm?  As with many players the Blue Jays have drafted over the years, the upside and risk of Aaron Sanchez appear to be of almost equal proportions.

#3 Dalton Pompey
    The development of Pompey is a tribute to the doggedness of the Blue Jays scouting staff, and the patience of their minor league people.  They stuck with him through his first three minor league seasons, when his performance was marked by inconsistency and injury, gave him time to develop in Lansing, and then watched him blossom last year. There were signs in his last month at Lansing in 2013 that he was about to bust out, but no one expected that he would become the mega-prospect he turned into in 2014.
   Pompey hits the ball hard, draws walks, plays highlight reel defence, and is both a stolen base threat and a smart baserunner.  Unless he stumbles badly in spring training, you would have to think that he will either claim the centrefield job outright, or earn a portion of it in tandem with Kevin Pillar.
   He should be a fixture in the top of the Blue Jays batting order for years to come.

4.  Jeff Hoffman, rhp
 We've been back and forth on Hoffman.  That the Baltimore Orioles, either themselves or through media intermediaries, were said to be insisting on the 2014 draftee as part of any compensation package for GM Dan Duquette, tells a great deal about his potential.  The Blue Jays, wisely (if this was the case), backed away.  We also learned, via Jeff Blair of Sportsnet, that the Braves were asking about Hoffman, and were  willing to send Justin Upton in return.
   Hoffman had Tommy John surgery in early May.  All appears to be going well with his rehab. He was throwing off a mound around Christmas time, and appears to be on schedule to return to game action in late April or early May.
  Everything that we have heard and read about Hoffman is that he is front-of-the-rotation material.  The Blue Jays appear to have obtained a top 3 pick for 9th pick bonus money.  Patience for at least this year is the key.  He will have to deal with the usual command and velocity issues that players coming back from the surgery have to deal with.  Like the next guy on the list.

5.  Roberto Osuna, rhp
   Osuna had no trouble dialing up his old velocity, touching 95 with his fastball in the Arizona Fall League.
   His plus changeup, and his advanced feel (for someone just turning 20) for pitching returned, too.  What he appeared to be missing was his command of all of his pitches.  Osuna caught too much of the strike zone in the AFL, and the elite hitters there made him pay for it.
  There is also a concern among some that Osuna's fastball doesn't have enough movement, due to the wrist wrap in his delivery.  The club has invited him to spring training with the major league club, which suggests they have high hopes for him.
  One positive thing about Osuna's TJ surgery in July of 2013 is that you don't hear the words "high maintenance body" applied to him any more.  He has lost considerable weight, and appears to be taking his nutrition and conditioning seriously.

6.  Miguel Castro, rhp
   Take away the impressive seasons Norris and Kendall Graveman had, and no other Blue Jays pitcher made as much progress as Castro did last season.
  In only his second stateside season, he progressed as far as High A,  dazzling hitters with the command of his plus fastball.  Just turned 20 on Christmas Eve, Castro was invited to spring training as well, with the suggestion from GM Alex Anthopoulos that we will see Castro pitching out of the Blue Jays pen sooner rather than later this summer.
   The issue with Castro has been the development of his secondary pitches, although his fastball gives him a larger margin of error than it would for other pitchers.  He gets good sink on his fastball, which can bore in on right handed hitters; with his milb career splits against them, we can understand the Blue Jays toying with the idea of having him pitch in relief.  He is still so young, however, we hope that he will be given at least one more season to develop his off speed and breaking pitches.

7.  Richard Urena, ss
   With the Barreto trade, Urena now becomes the team's shortstop of the future.  Some have labelled him major league-ready defensively. Unlike Barreto and Dawel Lugo, who were part of the same IFA class as Urena in 2012, he is projected to stay at the position.
   A natural lefthanded hitter, Urena tried switch-hitting this year, and was successful.  Reports suggest his power grades as below average, but he has plus bat speed, and barrels up balls well to all fields.  Urena will not turn 19 until later this month, but once he reaches full season ball (which should be this year), his development could accelerate quickly.

8.  Max Pentecost, c
   Pentecost leaps into our top 10 from the margins after some second thought (and the trade of Graveman and Barreto).  His shoulder surgery will back up his developmental timetable somewhat, but the kid is an athlete - one who can actually play.
   Pentecost profiles as a bat-first catcher.  The club has some work to do with his receiving and game-calling skills.  He is regarded as fast, and not just for a catcher.
  Which brings to mind tales of the legendary Branch Rickey.  In the days when farm systems were in their infancy, Rickey pioneered the tryout camp, where mass numbers of players were culled.  For Rickey, the most important tool was speed, both from an offensive and defensive perspective, and one of the first acts of his camps was to line the prospective players up and run a 60 yard dash; those who finished in the back of the pack were sent home before they ever even picked up a glove or bat.
According to Kevin Kerrane, who wrote the excellent treatise on scouting that is Dollar Sign on the Muscle, "(Rickey) believed it (speed) to be the single biggest indicator of major league potential."
  Keeping that in mind, we're inclined to look a little more favourably on Pentecost now.
 
9.  Devon Travis, 2b
   There is no Blue Jays prospect who has sparked as much divided opinion as Travis.
Blocked by Ian Kinsler in Detroit, the Tigers were set to give him a shot in the outfield, but ultimately saw Anthony Gose as a better bet for depth.
   At this point, the only thing holding Travis back would be his lack of experience.  Unless he has a knockout spring, that would be the only reason to send him to Buffalo.  And if incumbent Maicer Izturis' rehabbed knee isn't up to the task, the time may be sooner rather than later for Travis.
   Travis lacks one outstanding tool, and that seems to be the hangup for some people.  There's everything in the CV he has compiled to this point to indicate that he will hit.  Maybe not for a batting title, but he will provide some spark to the offence, while playing adequate defence.
   We have to make room for him on this list.  He's almost major league ready.  He's maybe not a multiple WAR guy, but he's not far away from helping this club plug a longstanding hole.

10.  Sean Reid-Foley, rhp
  We've developed a tradition of using this spot for a high ceiling, but far away player.  Like Alford, who we still believe in, but he still has a steep learning curve ahead of him.
   Again, reading over reports this winter, there's a growing consensus that the Blue Jays stole one when they selected Reid-Foley. The Blue Jays may once more have acquired a top level talent without paying a commensurate (relatively speaking) price for it. He did not overwhelm in his first pro season, but you have to look no further than the top 3 players on this list to realize that you can't read much into that.  In the back fields of the Dunedin complex, much goes on in the way of rebuilding swings and overhauling deliveries.  Reid-Foley may have been in the shop for some alterations last summer, and it will be interesting to see where and how he develops this season.  We think prospects like Ryan Borucki and Matt Smoral who are ahead of Reid-Foley in terms of age, experience, and devlopment may be more likely breakthrough candidates this year, but he may ultimately have the highest ceiling.