Who Gets a Promotion?

Clutchlings Photo

   Moving Week in minor league baseball is inching closer.
  Sometime in the first two weeks of June, as the minor league baseball season reaches its halfway point, teams begin the process of moving their deserving prospects up to the next level for a greater challenge.
 There must be a consensus among the minor league staff involved - from minor league managers and coaches, through to roving instructors, to front office personnel - that the player is ready for the physical and mental challenges that will come with moving up.
   Generally speaking, the Blue Jays have demonstrated under the Shapiro/Atkins regime a preference for moving a player up the ladder one step at a time, and having them spend at least a full season (whether that happen over the course of one calendar year or two) at each full season level.  There are exceptions, of course, but this is a leadership group that prefers the slow and steady path of development for their top prospects.
  And there are other factors that determine whether or not a player gets moved.  Having an open roster spot is an issue - sometimes, there just isn't room for a player at the next level.
    Having said all of that, it just doesn't look like there will be a lot of movement in the system this season.  The injury to Reese McGuire of New Hampshire created an opening for the most likely promotional candidate, Danny Jansen, just over a week ago.  Other than that, it's hard to see many other players making a move.  The strength of this system lies in its players at the lower levels, and while teams want to make sure their players are challenged, there's no need to rush many of them just yet.
   Still, that won't stop us from making a few educated guesses.....

Conner Greene
   When spring training breaks and players are assigned to minor league teams, they're given a list of things to work on during the season.  Greene's list no doubt included continuing to harness that electric fastball, which has topped 100 mph several times this spring.  And on that count, he's been inconsistent so far this season, walking 25 in 52 IP at New Hampshire.
   Still, the time may be coming for the 2013 draftee (and made 12 starts for the Fisher Cats last year), who must be placed on the 40-man roster this November, to move up.  When he's at his best, Greene commands the lower part of the strike zone with his moving two-seamer, and uses the four-seamer up in the zone to finish hitters off late in the count.  His 64.5% ground ball rate leads the Eastern League, demonstrating that while that latter gets the acclaim, it's the former that gets most of his outs.
   Greene's next-to-last start against Portland was a microcosm of his season so far.  His command was spotty, walking the lead off hitter, who scored two batters later.  In the third, he retired the side in quick fashion with a pair of gb outs and a swinging K.  After receiving the toss from 1B Ryan McBroom to retire the hitter at 1st in one inning, he slammed the ball to the ground in obvious frustration after recording the out - something that may have made it into Manager Gary Allenson's post-game report.
   With the shuffling in Buffalo's rotation, there may be room for Greene on the Niagara Frontier just the same, and the Blue Jays may decide to challenge him with a promotion there.

Bo Bichette
   The initial campaign of full season ball is a huge adjustment for most players.  Not only must they deal with the physical and emotional challenges of playing every day, they need to learn to take care of their bodies and personal affairs off the field.  Add in experiencing failure for perhaps the first time in their baseball lives, 8-hour bus rides, and doing it all far from home and family, and it can be a difficult time for some players, which is why many organizations are content to let their top prospects ride things out and spend a full season in Low A.
   But it's becoming harder to see the 2016 2nd rounder spending a whole season at Lansing.
   After an April in which he hit .371, Bichette has not cooled off in May, hitting .383.   He leads the Midwest League in Average, Runs, and Slugging and is 2nd in Doubles and OBP.  His 31.6% Line Drive rate leads the loop as well.  Heady stuff for a player in just his second year of pro ball.
   Among the list of things Bichette has had to work on, of course, is his defence.  He has split time between SS and 2B, with the organization no doubt wanting to improve his range (which is at least adequate) and his arm strength (which is accurate, but still fringy).  Bichette has good reactions to batted balls, but we're going to have to give him some time to see if he can consistently make that throw from the hole at SS.  Cavan Biggio is the incumbent 2B at Dunedin, so Bichette might not be able to split time between the two up-the-middle positions, and he may stay at Lansing as a result.
   At 19, while he's still one of the youngest players in the MWL, his mastery of Low A pitching may prompt the Blue Jays to send him to Dunedin for a greater challenge.

    An AB from Opening Weekend.....

Justin Maese
   Without as much fanfare as a couple of his higher profile teammates, Maese is putting together a solid season at Lansing.  A May 24th 7-inning complete game in which he fanned 12 and walked none, might be the most compelling demonstration of his growing domination of MWL hitters.
   Maese quite simply fills the strike zone, using his two-seamer to induce a great deal of weak contact.  In his late May start, 71 of his 97 pitches were thrown for strikes.  He does give up some contact, but as he refines his command, he is becoming tougher to barrel up.
   Last year, in only his second pro season, Maese skipped a level to play in Vancouver, and finished the season with Lansing.  He is approaching a full calendar year with the Lugnuts, and the organization may want to move him on to the next level.

Bradley Jones
   Like Maese, Jones has not received the acclaim his teenaged fellow infielders have received, but he has popped up on the prospect radar as a legitimate bat.
   Jones is among the MWL leaders in Slugging and Total Bases, slashing .324/.389/.568 so far this season, demonstrating an advanced approach at the plate.  If there was a concern about his production at the plate prior to this season, it would have to have been pitch recognition and working counts better.  He has done an outstanding job of that, and it wouldn't be going too far out on a limb to suggest that he has the best approach in the Lansing lineup.
   A 1st Baseman last year, Jones was told to pack a collection of gloves for the move to Michigan, and he's split time between 1st, 2nd, and 3rd this year.  His reactions on groundballs are better than had been anticpated, but his arm still is somehere in the fringy range.  But that almost doesn't matter - the bat will play.
   Turning 22 next month, it may be time to move Jones up to Dunedin.

   Jones at the plate in early April:

   Beyond that, it's hard to see much movement next month.  Fans have been clamoring to see top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr moved to the next level, but there is absolutely no need to rush him. Had he been born stateside, he would be preparing for next month's draft.  Rapid ascension is likely in his future, but not this year.  Anthony Alford would have been a good candidate to move to Buffalo next month, but his wrist injury has taken care of that.  Upon his return from a successful rehab, it's possible we see him with the Bisons in August if they're in a playoff hunt.


 

Projecting the Rosters - Lansing

   Even though a snow squall is currently obliterating the view out my family room window onto my backyard this blustery Sunday Southern Ontario morning, there is light at the end of the tunnel - Minor League Opening Day is about 90 days (or so) away.
    So that means it's time to call up Baseball Reference, grab a yellow legal pad, sharpen some pencils, and try to project the rosters of the Blue Jays four full season minor league teams.
 
   Starting at the bottom, we have the Lansing Lugnuts, of the Low A Midwestern League.  These are exciting times in the Michigan city - this past off season, they renewed their Player Development Contract with the Blue Jays for two years, a new 2000 sq ft special events venue in the outfield opens this season, and a three-story/84-unit apartment complex opened along the centrefield wall last August.  To top it off, Lansing may have the best collection of projected talent in the system this year, including 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who at 17 may already be one of the best prospects in all of baseball.

   In the process of constructing these rosters, I've looked at the performance of players on teams below them the previous season.  It's usually customary to advance one rung at a time up the full season ladder, but complicating the job of building Lansing's 2017 roster is that there are players from three levels (Vancouver, Bluefield, GCL Blue Jays) to consider.
   At best, these rosters are educated guesses, and there is considerable information unavailable to the average fan about team's plans for their players this season.  As well, spring training can largely dictate where a player lands that season - Rowdy Tellez seemed ticketed for another half season with Dunedin at the close of spring training last year, but his maturity and strike zone management persuaded the organization to accelerate his development, and he more than responded to the challenge.
   Like MLB teams, minor league clubs can have no more than 25 players on their active rosters. At times, they can be creative with their 7-Day disabled list,  in order to facilitate one or two more players for a brief period of time.
   I have included each player's age (as of January 1st, 2017), 2016 team(s), and relevant stats.
Catchers

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/Slug
C	Javier Hernandez	20	Vancouver	.215/.291/.313
C	Matt Morgan	20	Bluefield	.179/.313/.286

  Hernandez is already possibly the best defensive Catcher in the organization, although his bat has been slow to develop.  Morgan has shown very little since being a 4th round pick two seasons ago.  He may be in competition with Bluefield teammate Ridge Smith, a 12th round pick last year.  

Infielders

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/Slug
1B	Christian Williams	20	Vancouver	.236/.341/.340
2B	Cavan Biggio	21	Vancouver	.273/.371/.349
2B/SS	Bo Bichette	18	GCL Jays	.427/.451/.732
SS	Yeltsin Gudino	19	Vancouver	.226/.338/.258
3B	Bryan Lizardo	19	Vancouver	.220/.284/.333
3B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr	17	Bluefield	.271/.359/.449
UT	Deiferson Barreto	21	Vancouver	.215/.259/.333
DH	Bradley Jones	21	Bluefield	.291/.336/.578

   This will be an exciting group.  Guerrero is the obvious standout, but Biggio, and Bichette (whose first year of pro ball was a smashing success, despite missing a month due to appendicitis), and Appalachian League Home Run leader Jones will mean that this is a club that should produce some runs.  Bichette may split time with Gudino and Biggio, and the only reason that he may start the season in Vancouver in June instead of Lansing in April is to give him more playing time at Extended.  

Outfielders

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	Ave/OBP/Slug
OF	Joshua Palacios	21	Vancouver	.330/.397/.426
OF	J.B. Woodman	22	Vancouver	.297/.391/.445
OF	Jake Anderson	24	Lansing/Van	.199/.260/.290
OF	Reggie Pruitt	19	Bluefield	.237/.316/.266

   Palacios and Woodman were promoted to Lansing in late August, and both more than held their own against MWL pitching.  Anderson, the prodigal 2011 compensation round pick, made his return to competition last year after being limited to only 73 At Bats from 2013 to 2015 because of injury.  He began the season with Lansing, but finished with Vancouver, and didn't see a whole lot of strikes in his time in the Northwest League.  Pruitt, the 2015 23rd rounder whose draft stock dipped because of a college commitment, re-tooled his swing at Instructs last fall, and may be a spring training surprise.  If he isn't, Rodrgio Orozco (.241/.348/.289 at Vancouver last year),  Norberto Obeso (.316/.441/.408 in the GCL), or Lance Jones (.325/.486/.429 at Bluefield) may fill out the roster.

Starting Pitchers

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	WHIP/K/9/BB.9
SP	Justin Maese	20	Van-Lansing	1.14/7.0/1.6
SP	Patrick Murphy	20	Lansing-Van	1.46/6.8/3.7
SP	T.J. Zeuch	21	Van-Lansing	1.12/10.1/1.9
SP	Yennsy Diaz	20	Bluefield	1.53/7.7/4.8
SP	Jose Espada	19	Bluefield	1.23/.5.4/2.0

   The top end of this rotation can probably match any in the MWL.  Maese, a 2015 3rd rounder, reached Lansing last summer in only his second season of pro ball, while Murphy, whose own injury woes kept him sidelined him for almost two years, made a strong comeback in 2016, and was Vancouver's top pitcher. Zeuch, Toronto's top pick in last year's draft, gives Lansing a formidable 1-2-3 set of starters.  Beyond that, it's a toss-up.  Diaz impressed in the Appy League last year, but had some command issues, and Espada, after a solid pro debut in 2015, didn't miss as many bats when he moved up a level last year.  Some dark-horse candidates to make the rotation may include Wilfri Aleton, who fanned almost a batter per inning in the GCL last year, Juliandry Higuera, who has spent most of the last two seasons with Bluefield, or even Maximo Castillo, who pitched as a 17 year old in the GCL last summer.  Luis Sanchez made 12 starts for Vancouver last year, and may fill out the back end of the Lansing rotation if the other candidates don't prove to be ready.

Relief Pitchers

Position	Player	Age	2016 team	WHIP/K/9/BB.9
RP	Jackson McClelland	22	Vancouver	1.35/7.4/3.0
RP	Griffin Glaude	24	Van-Lansing	1.32/10.2/4.2
RP	Zach Jackson	22	Vancouver	1.42/6.1/11.7
RP	Jackson Lowery	24	Van-Lansing	1.13/8.7/2.5
RP	Jared Carkuff	23	GCL Jays-Van	1.01/12.5/1.4
RP	Geno Encina	22	Van-Lansing	1.03/9.0/1.6

   This is probably the hardest group to predict.  Jackson may be the most notable name of the group. Owner of one of the best curveballs in the system, he may not be in Lansing long.  A few names who might elbow their way into contention for a spot include Travis Bergen (limited to 5 innings last year), Conner Eller (7 Saves for Bluefield, 8.6K/9 for Bluefield in 2016), or Vancouver relievers Gabe Noyalis, Grayson Huffman, or Evan Smith.  Despite the uncertainty of its makeup, the bullpen may be one of its strengths.

   The 2016 Lugnuts promise to be one of the better editions of the team in recent years, although their pitching depth may be a concern.  With Lansing just over a 4 hour drive from the Greater Toronto Area (there are no plans as of this moment to stream the Lugs' home games over milb.tv), the trip may be well worth your while this year.

The Next 10 - Toronto Blue Jays Prospects 11-20

  A year ago, it was difficult to come up with this past of the Blue Jays Top Prospects list.
Alex Anthopoulos' prospect wheeling and dealing had emptied the system of much of its depth.
  This year, it's a different story.
   Aided by the rapid ascendancy of prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and the addition of draft picks like T.J. Zeuch, the system now boasts a wider base of talent than it did a year ago.  A stellar 2016 draft also helped to re-stock the system quickly.  Players who may have cracked the top 10 list of other organizations found themselves on the outside of the Toronto list.
    If the front office decides to re-tool the major league roster next season, they have far greater prospect currency to deal with than they did a year ago.
 
11.  Justin Maese, RHP
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook:  Mid to back of the rotation
Calling Card:  bat-breaking, ground ball contact

   Maese definitely merited consideration for the Top 10.  In only his second year of pro ball, he advanced as far as Lansing, progressing from the GCL to Low A in about one season's worth of starts.
   The 2015 3rd rounder had an impressive debut with the GCL Jays, and quickly picked up and perfected a slider at Instructs that fall with former Blue Jays minor league pitching co-ordinator Sal Fasano. Held back in extended to build his innings and arm strength up this year, he skipped Bluefield, and began the season as Vancouver's Opening Day starter.  Maese made only 5 starts for the C's, but the front office had seen enough (as had Baseball America, which named him the league's 8th best prospect on that small sample size), and promoted him to Lansing in July.  Despite being one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, Maese fared well in full-season ball.
  Sitting 91-93 and touching 95, Maese's fastball has a ton of natural sink to it, and when he's pounding the bottom of the strike zone with it, he's extremely tough to barrel up.  Add to that his 89 mph slider, and Maese keeps hitters off balance.  He does tend to give up ground ball contact, but he's the type of pitcher who can only be a pitch away from getting out of trouble with a double play ball.  You really get a sense of his ground ball-inducing abilities with this chart:

  Maese is the latest in a long line of lean,  tall and downward-plane pitching, athletic pitchers.  The former HS QB fields his position well, and credit goes to Blue Jays Texas scout Gerald Murray for going off the beaten baseball path to find this gem.  He should begin the season with Lansing next year, but will likely finish in Dunedin.

12.  Angel Perdomo LHP
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook: Back of the rotation, or back of the bullpen power arm
Calling Card:  Premium velocity
   Perdomo was in the back end of my Top 10 last year, and even though he slipped a bit due to the new depth of prospects in the organization, I have always been a huge fan of the 6'7" southpaw.
   Brought along slowly, Perdomo remained at Lansing for the full season, even though rotation mates like Sean Reid-Foley, Jon Harris, and Francisco Rios were promoted to Dunedin with numbers that were not that much better than his.
   Fastball command has long been an issue for the lefty, and that's what kept him in Lansing for the year. But few pitchers in minor league baseball missed as many bats as Perdomo did in 2016 - his 156 Ks lead the organization and the Midwest League, and was the second highest total in all of minor league ball.  When you faced Perdomo this year, chances were good that you would go down swinging:

s

  Perdomo's numbers in the second half were not as sizzling as they were in the first.  That may because he was tiring in his first year of full season ball, or it may owe to the fact that he was working more on his secondaries.

  When he is on his game, Perdomo sits 93-94 with his fastball from a delivery that can be very tough on left-handed hitters, and uses a slider that flashes plus, and a change up that grades at least as average to complement his fastball.  The thinking is that as he moves up the ladder, more advanced hitters may lay off his four seamer up in the zone, and that he may profile as a bullpen arm one day. Repeating his delivery consistently to improve that fastball command has been Perdomo's biggest challenge.  He sometimes falls off to the 3rd base side, or rushes his arm.  Tall southpaws tend to take longer to develop, and even though Perdomo will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft next month if he's not put on the 40-man roster, the organization will likely keep him in a starter's role in Dunedin next year.

   

 
 13.  Reese McGuire, C
ETA: 2017
Future Outlook:  defence-first, steady MLB back up
Calling Card:  superior receiving skills
   Catching depth has been something of a weakness in the organization.  With the acquisition of McGuire at the trade deadline, the return to health of Max Pentecost, and the development of several lower level Catching prospects, it has now become a strength.
   In McGuire's draft year (2013), I followed scouting reports on him closely, because several had suggested he might land where the Blue Jays were drafting at the 10 spot (the Jays chose fellow California high schooler Phil Bickford, who chose not to sign, and re-entered the draft a year later).   BA's draft report on McGuire looks much the same as a scouting report about him might look now:

He is a natural behind the plate. He remains loose, even after adding strength to his 6-foot-1, 190-pound build. His receiving, blocking and arm strength are all above-average, and he has been calling his own games since he was 10 years old. He has a high baseball IQ and game awareness. The question will be how much McGuire will hit. He has a smooth lefthanded swing with strength and bat speed and shows the tools to be an above-average pure hitter with average power. The San Diego recruit runs better than most catchers. Even if he doesn't reach his offensive ceiling, McGuire's defense will allow him to be a big league backup, but if he hits he has all-star potential.

  McGuire has risen as far as AA in four pro seasons, so there's always hope that his bat will come around, but a career line of .267/.324/.329 suggests it may not.   He was once a BA Top 100 prospect, but has fallen out of their rankings.  McGuire had a decent showing the Arizona Fall League last year, has decent bat speed, and he tends to make contact and put balls in play, so there's always a possibility that his swing plane can be altered to hit more line drives than his customary ground ball contact.
  With the future of R.A. Dickey and his personal catcher Josh Thole uncertain, there could be a battle for Russell Martin's back up job next spring, depending on what the club does with Dioner Navarro. Unless a Catcher from outside the organization is brought in, McGuire could be battling A.J. Jimenez for that spot.

14. Francisco Rios, RHP
ETA:  2018
Future Outlook:  Bullpen Power Arm
Calling Card:  Barrel-dodging slider
  Rios is perhaps the most under-the-radar prospect on this list, and no one broke out more than this 2012 late IFA signing from Mexico.
   Rios posted reasonably good numbers with Vancouver last year, but there was little to prophesize the start he had with Lansing, posting a 1.20 ERA over his first 6 starts,  fanning 43 in 30 innings. That performance landed him a promotion to Dunedin (and a spot on the World roster at the Futures Game), where he gave up more contact, but still gave an indication that he's headed higher in the organization.
   Rios has added some jump to his fastball, hitting 95 early in the season, and sitting 91-93.  His delivery does present with some deception on his fastball, and even more on his slider, which flashes plus potential. He commands both sides of the plate, and is not afraid to bury that slider when he's ahead in the count.  He also tries to elevate that fastball to generate swings and misses, but he was not successful with it in the FSL as he was the MWL.
  What may limit Rios' ascension up the ladder is his other secondary pitches - his change is inconsistent, his curve would need to improve greatly to even reach that level.  While he should return for at least a half season at Dunedin next year, he may eventually move to his pen, where his fastball may tick up, and be complemented even more by his slider.

15.  Harold Ramirez, OF
ETA: late 2017
Future Outlook:  Corner MLB OF
Calling Card:  Above-Average Hit Tool

   One may think that since McGuire and Ramirez ranked higher on most Pirates' prospects lists than I have, that I'm not that high on either.  To be truthful, I'm not sure there are two prospects in the Blue Jays top 20 that are closer to MLB-ready than this pair.
   Ramirez has something of an unorthodox approach at the plate, but all he's done as a prospect is hit. A knee injury after joining the organization limited him to one Eastern League game, but this is a player who has posted a .306/.364/.407 line since turning pro.
   Reports suggest that Ramirez profiles as a corner OF because of his arm, but the Jays thought enough of him to push incumbent Roemon Fields to LF in New Hampshire when Ramirez arrived at the trade deadline.
    MLB Pipeline's evaluation of RHH Ramirez:

He hits the ball hard to all fields and while he has a line-drive, crush-the-ball-to-right-center approach, he certainly has the strength and bat speed to grow into more power. He has a solid approach and will take a walk.

  Ramirez has had a history of injuries, but if he's healthy, he should start the 2017 season in Buffalo, where he should also continue to hit.  The outfield was a bit crowded in the Pirates' system, hence their willingness to part with him, and with only perhaps Dalton Pompey realistically ahead of him, if change comes to the Blue Jays outfield this off season, Ramirez could find himself in the big leagues at some point next year.

 
16.  J.B Woodman, OF
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook:  MLB right fielder
Calling Card:  Five Tools

   The first of the two 2nd round picks the Blue Jays had this past June, Woodman tied for the Southeastern Conference lead in Home Runs this past season. In naming him the Northwest League's 6th prospect, BA observed:

 Evaluators around the league noted that Woodman made a lot of hard contact and showed the ability to hit both fastballs and offspeed pitches equally well. He showed contact problems by ranking fifth in the league with 72 strikeouts. He’s a steady defender who gets good jumps and reads on balls and has speed enough to steal double-digit bases.

  A centre fielder in college and with Vancouver for this past season, scouts think his arm and bat play better in right field.   It is true that he swings and misses a lot, but he also works the count and draws walks.  He finished the last week of the season in Lansing, and will return there next spring.  Several reports I have received about Woodman comment on his bat speed and pitch recognition skills, which will help him make a successful jump to full season ball.  While Woodman hit the ball to all fields, the LHH hit his three Homers to the opposite field:

   With the emphasis the organization has placed on HS pitchers over the last several drafts, a toolsy, athletic player like Woodman is something of a novelty.  Of all the players on this list, he's the one that I'm most interested to follow next year.

 17.  Ryan Borucki, LHP
ETA:  2019
Future Outlook: back of the rotation starter
Calling Card:  MLB-ready change-up

   If there was an award for Grit and Resilience in the organization, the next two pitchers on this list would have shared it for 2016.
   A 15th round pick in 2012 whose stock had fallen due to a torn UCL, Borucki has missed two full seasons since joining the organization (Tommy John in 2013; elbow and shoulder issues last year).
    The Appy League's 12th-ranked prospect in 2014 despite only spending a month there, Borucki seemed ready to head to full season play in 2015, but was limited to only 5 innings.
   Finally healthy this year, the club opted to keep him in Florida when spring training camp broke, assigning him to Dunedin. Whether this was designed to challenge him, keep him in a warm climate until the weather further north warmed up, or have him close to the team's medical facilities in the case of a breakdown is unknown, but he was overmatched, as  Florida State League hitters pounded him at a .421 clip over his first 6 starts.
   Sent down a level to Lansing, Borucki turned his season (and possibly his career) around with a Midwest League 2nd-best 2.41 ERA, and a 10-4 record.  Borucki fanned 107 in 115 innings, walking only 26. Working with Lugnuts pitching coach Jeff Ware and then-Blue Jays minor league pitching instructor Sal Fasano, he added some deception to his delivery, and began missing barrels with greater regularity.
   The tall, athletic lefthander can dial it up to 95 with has fastball, but sits in the 90-92 range.  He complements it with what might be the best change up in the organization, a pitch with great deception and depth that MWL hitters had little or no chance against.  Perhaps the most encouraging sign this season was the career-high 135 innings he threw this year.
   Borucki has lost some development time, but showed the determination and pitchability that led the organization to roll the dice on him 4 years ago.  He should return to Dunedin and pitch with greater success next year, and might move quickly now that he has a healthy full season under his belt.

 

18.  Patrick Murphy, RHP
ETA:  2020
Future Outlook: Back of the rotation
Calling Card:  
   If Borucki is medium-grade sandpaper, Murphy is the coarse-grade variety.  His has been the longest road among the prospects on this list.
He missed his senior year of high school due to a torn UCL, but the Blue Jays still took him in the 3rd round that year (2013).  His pro debut, delayed to 2014, lasted all of 4 innings.
  Shut down early in 2015 due to lingering arm numbness and pain, Murphy missed the entire 2015 season after surgery to remove a rib to help lessen pain in the arm. Held back in extended this year, he pitched in 8 games for Lansing before heading to Vancouver when the Northwest League season opened.
  Murphy found himself with the C's, anchoring their rotation, pitching in the league's All Star game, and being named the loop's 12-best prospect.  His work drew notice from the opposition, according to BA:

Managers praised Murphy for the angle on his 92-96 mph fastball and ability to pound the bottom part of the zone with his entire arsenal. He couples his fastball with a 12-to-6 curveball that rates as an above-average pitch and a changeup he spent time developing at Vancouver

 Having not pitched in almost two calendar years, Murphy showed some rust with Lansing, walking 14 in only 21 innings.  His command improved with Vancouver.  His development will likely be slow and steady, with a return to Lansing next season

19.  Jordan Romano, RHP
ETA:  2019
Future Outlook:  Back of the rotation innings-eater
Calling Card:  Pounder of the lower part of the strike zone
   If you can remember only one thing about the Markham, ON, native it should be this:  toward the end of spring training in 2015, Romano threw a pitch in a game that made the count full - and also made his UCL give way.  He felt it, but stayed in the game for one more pitch, uncorking a hellacious slider to strike the hitter out.  A few weeks later, he underwent Tommy John surgery, wiping out his season.
   I have followed Romano's career closely since the Blue Jays made him their 10th pick in 2014 out of Oral Roberts, where he was 3rd on their all-time Saves list -despite only playing one season there.
   As someone who grew up playing on some of the fields Romano played on in Southern Ontario (albeit a couple of decades earlier), it's easy for me to feel an affinity for someone who defied long odds to get drafted, and may beat even longer ones to pitch in the majors one day.  He kept me up-to-date with his progress throughout his rehab, and impressed me with his positive attitude.
  Romano spent part of the off season working out with Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, and it showed.  He faced live hitters for the first time in April in Extended, and, converted to starting, made his first appearance in 22 months for Lansing, throwing a complete game, 7-inning 2-hit/1-run gem in early June, walking none and striking out 7.
   Romano was consistent for the Lugs all summer, failing to go at least 3 innings in only 1 of his 14 starts.  His 2.11 ERA would have led the Midwest League if he had enough innings to qualify.  He walked 27 and fanned 72 in as many innings.  I watched Romano's final start of the season, a 10-strikeout command performance over 6.  
   Romano sits 92-93 with his fastball, and is adept at getting ahead of hitters, commanding both sides of the plate.  He can elevate his fastball when he has two strikes on a hitter, but it will be interesting to see how hitters at the next level handle it.  At 6'4", he gets good extension and downward plane on his pitches.  He complements that fastball with a slider that has good bite, and a change up that improved with each start.  Staying ahead of hitters makes his subsequent pitches that much better, and is a key for Romano as he moves up to Dunedin next year.
   Harris, Perdomo, and Rios may have been a new version of the Lansing Three earlier in the season, but Borucki, Romano, and Maese formed their own version in the second half.

20.  Josh Palacios, OF
ETA: 2019
Future Outlook: 4th outfielder
Calling Card:  outstanding athleticsim

   He may not have made the NWL top prospects list, but Palacios may already be one of the best athletes in the organization.   The 4th rounder from last June's draft hit .355/.437/.473 for Vancouver, and while scouts forecast a fourth outfielder-type projection for him, it will be interesting to see what a year of full season ball in 2017 will do in terms of developing his bat speed and base running abilities.  Palacios has quick hands, looks like a hurdler, and gets around the bases in a hurry.

  A sage baseball man once told me when in doubt, go with projection.  Palacios may not have drawn rave reviews, but the organization still thought enough of him to take him in the 4th round.  There may not be much room for projection left for him in terms of tools, but the athleticism is there - enough to make him worth following when he begins full season play with Lansing next year.

 

Blue Jays Release Instructional League Roster

J.B. Woodman - Vancouver Province photo

  The Toronto Blue Jays today released their list of invitees to Instructional League play in Florida.
The league dates back to 1958, and has served as a place where top prospects can go to receive more detailed and intensive instruction from the team's staff of minor league instructors.  It can be also used for rehabbing veterans who missed time due to injury, or minor league players who are being asked to switch positions.
   Instructs, as it's commonly called, begin in late September, and wrap up in late October.  A typical day begins with on-field instructions and drills from 9 am until noon, and then a game played under controlled conditions at 1 pm. It's a key time for the organization's top executives to watch and evaluate these players in person.
  An invitation to Instructs signals to a prospect that the organization thinks enough of their potential to invited them down to further refine their skills.  The time can be very valuable.  RHP Sean Reid-Foley was taught a new, simplified delivery at last fall's instructs, and had a dominant season at two levels before being shut down in August.  Other times, pitchers are sent to Instructs to work on a new pitch, or refine command of one of their secondary pitches.

   The 2016 roster, with some thoughts:

Pitchers:

  A couple of names stand out:
-Maximo Castillo, who more than held his own as a 17 year old in the GCL this year.  His numbers weren't glittering (17% K rate, 3.74 FIP) but he was one of the youngest players in the league.
-Yennsy Diaz may have led Appy League qualifiers in ERA, but after finally starting to work more down in the zone in August experienced some success.  He sat 93-95 with his fastball for much of the season.  He's raw, but still has lots of projection left.  Here's a look, thanks to Baseball America:

-Jose Espada was the club's 6th round pick from Puerto Rico in 2015, and had a successful debut season in the GCL.  He did not fare as well in the Appy League this year.  He's another one of those long, lean, athletic pitchers the organization covets.
-Clinton Hollon is an electric-armed pitcher who has missed two seasons due to Tommy John surgery (2014), and a pair of drug suspensions (2016).  He is looking to get his career back on track. 
-Zach Jackson was selected in the 4th round this past June.  He pitched mostly in relief in college, and pitched exclusively out of the bullpen after being drafted, striking out 23 in 17 innings with Vancouver.  He could move quickly through the system in a relief role.
-Kelyn Jose has an absolutely electric arm, hitting 100 several times with his FB this summer with Bluefield.  He sits 95-97, but has had his troubles finding the plate, walking more (19) than striking out (17) in 17.2 innings.
-Justin Maese is easily the most impressive name on this list.  In only his second pro season, the 2015 2nd rounder out of Texas HS ball advanced as far as Lansing.  Last year at Instructs, he learned a new slider from departed Blue Jays minor league pitching coordinator Sal Fasano.
-Angel Perdomo led both the Blue Jays system and the Midwest League in strikeouts with 157 in 127 innings.  Perdomo seemed to wear down a bit in August, although he may have been working on his secondaries in order to get to the next level.
-2016 1st rounder T.J. Zeuch gets great extension from his 6'7" frame, and will no doubt have his mechanics and secondaries fine tuned this fall.

Catchers

 -Ryan Gold was a 27th rounder out of South Carolina HS this year, and hit well (.280/.359/.402) in the GCL this summer.
-Javier Hernandez is a defence-first player who has already drawn raves about his play behind the plate.  His bat, to this point, has been a different matter.
-Matt Morgan was a highly regarded 4th rounder in 2014 who has struggled greatly (.151/.253/.240) in his three years of pro ball.  Despite his experience, he was the youngest Catcher on Bluefield's roster to open the season.
-Max Pentecost missed all of the 2015 recovering from a pair of shoulder surgeries.  The 2014 1st rounder returned to action with Lansing in May, and was promoted to Dunedin in July.  He hit .302/.361/.486 at both levels.  His 2016 action, of course was all at DH, and with the bevy of pitchers at Instructs, he will be needed to help catch them.  Don't expect him return to his duties behind the plate in game action until next Spring Training, however.
-Yorman Rodriguez has mashed (.318/.379/.438) in two years of pro ball, and earned a promotion to the GCL this summer.  He split his time with the GCL Jays between DH, C, and 1B, indicating that maybe a position switch will be coming up down the road.

Infielders

-Bo Bichette's name jumps off this list for prospects not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  The 2016 2nd pick was hammering GCL pitching (.421/.440/.724), and was rumoured to be on his way to Bluefield when a ruptured appendix interrupted his season on July 21st.  He missed over a month, but came back to go 3-8 in the final two games of the season.  Bichette split time between 2B and SS this year, but the son of the former MLBer will be given every opportunity to stick at short.
-Cavan Biggio, another son of a former Major Leaguer (and Hall of Famer) acquitted himself well mostly at Vancouver his summer after being taken in the 5th round ouf of Notre Dame in June.
-What more can we say about Vladdy Jr?  As a 17 year old, he was one of the top prospects in the Appy League, demonstrating great strike zone judgement.  A late season slump caused his numbers to tail off a bit, but he's the real deal.  From all accounts, he was at least adequate at 3B, and the organization will no doubt want to further develop his skills at the hot corner.  Vlad was at Instructs last year, and hit a few of these:

+baseballbetsy video

-Bradley Jones led the Appy League in Home Runs and RBI, leading the league in Total Bases and Slugging, and was 5th in OPS.
-Nash Knight hit .402 at Bluefield in his second pro season, but didn't have enough ABs to qualify after being promoted to Vancouver in August.
-Mitch Nay was once one of the organization's top prospects, and was invited to spring training with the big club last year, but missed almost all of this year due to back problems.

Outfielders

-Josh Palacios stands out on this list to me.  The 2016 4th rounder may already be one of the best athletes in the organization, with quick-twitch skills at the plate, in the field, and on the base paths.

-J.B. Woodman was the team's 2nd round pick this year, and after spending most of the summer with Vancouver, hit .441/.487/.588 in 9 late season games with Lansing.  

-Chavez Young turned some heads in the GCL. The Freeport, Bahamas native (by way of Georgia HS) had 6 multi-hit outings over a 7 game stretch in August.  He heads up one of the more talented OF groups to attend Instructs in several years.  

  There are other names on this list that might stand out to others, but after five months of watching box scores, live MiLB Gameday feeds, live streamed games, Twitter

observations, and emails with personnel across the system, these are the ones that stood out the most to me.

*******************************************************************************

   One final note:  it has not been confirmed, but sources indicate that an announcement about the Blue Jays spring training facilities in Dunedin will be made in Florida on September 26th.  It has been suggested that a vastly improved (or replaced) Florida Auto Exchange Stadium will be the centerpiece of the new deal between the city and the team to replace the one that will expire next year.

A Look at Justin Maese

Foxsports.com photo

   When former GM Alex Anthopoulos went on his shopping spree over a year ago prior to the trade deadline, he was able to hang onto much of the club's upper level talent depth.  He did, however, deal much of its middle level talent base in order to put deals together that resulted in a division title.  The top level prospects, like Anthony Alford, Conner Greene, Sean Reid-Foley, Richard Urena, and Rowdy Tellez, remained intact, and now the next wave of prospects is just starting to get established in Low A ball. RHP Justin Maese is at the forefront of that group.
   Maese (say "My-EH-zee) grew up in the football hotbed of El Paso, TX, which is off the beaten path for baseball scouts.  A high school QB and punter, he was headed the college football route, but began to attract minor attention when he hit 96 on the gun in the spring of 2015.  Credit goes to the Blue Jays, who developed a knack for unearthing talent in non-traditional baseball markets under Anthopoulos, and Blue Texas scout Gerald Murray, who talked Maese out of his football commitment, and  he signed with Toronto after being selected in the 3rd round last June.
   Baseball America's scouting report on Maese before the draft:

Maese climbed this spring from off of draft boards into consideration for the top 10 rounds because scouts who saw him at his best saw an above-average fastball and a slider that flashed above-average. But scouts who stuck around for a few more starts saw the stuff often drop back from the 93-96 mph he showed at his best to 88-92 mph. Maese's feel for the breaking ball comes and goes and his delivery involves effort and is somewhat mechanical. But Maese has lots of arm speed and potential if he can smooth out the rough edges. He is committed to Texas Tech.

Their tune changed a bit after an impressive rookie season:

 Athletic and live-armed, Maese delivers from a low three-quarters delivery that helps him impart excellent sink to his fastball. His velocity came and went during the spring, which led to his draft stock rising and falling, but when he stays on top of the ball in his delivery, he can push 96 mph with plus sinking life. He'll sit 89-93 mph most of the time but could fill out and hold higher velocity longer down the line. He has work to do to polish his changeup and slider, which at times flashes pus with mid-80s power. Maese had an exceptional groundball rate in his debut (2.58 grounds per airout) and profiles as a power sinkerballer if it all works out. 

   Maese has been on an upward arc in terms of his career trajectory ever since, and in only his second pro season was promoted to Lansing a few weeks ago.  Last year, he was dominant in the GCL,  being named the league's MVP, and threw a 6-inning, one run, four hit, 10 strikeout game in the playoffs.  This year, Maese began the season with Vancouver, as the organization opted to pump the brakes a bit on his development, but after posting an 0.80 WHIP for the C's in 26 innings over 5 starts, he was on his way to the Midwest League.
   I charted Maese's August 13th start at West Michigan.  At 6"3"/180, Maese fits the mold of the prototypical Blue Jays pitching prospect.  Maese doesn't turn 20 until late October, and as one of the youngest players in the MWL, he certainly looks like it.  Maese has made huge strides in his delivery, repeating it well, throwing from a consistent arm slot, and landing in a good position to field comebackers:

 
  Maese worked a tidy, 10-pitch first inning, retiring the side in order, CF Lane Thomas making a nice running catch of a sinking liner for the final out.  A deliberate worker on the mound, West Michigan hitters started stepping out of the box on Maese in the 2nd.  Maese gave up a one-out double off the LF wall, which later came around to score on a two-out single that had some eyes, and found a hole between third and short.  As a sinkerball pitcher who works down in the zone, Maese will give up some contact like that. Hitting 95, Maese struck out the final hitter swinging to end his 16-pitch 2nd.
  Maese struggled a bit with his command in the 3rd, but still retired the side in order on 13 pitches, inducing a pair of groundball outs after striking out the leadoff hitter.  He also gave up a leadoff single in the 4th, but C Ryan Hissery, who continues to improve his skills behind the plate, gunned down the runner attempting to steal 2nd.  While Maese did not show a great move to 1st in this game, his short stride to home no doubt helped Hissey throw the runner out.  He retired the next two hitters, needing only 8 pitches to get out of the inning.
  The 5th proved to be Maese's longest of the day.  After giving up another leadoff base hit, Hissey's throw hit the runner on the helmet as he attempted to steal second, putting a runner on 3rd with no outs.  A one-out singled brought home West Michigan's second run of the game.  Maese retired the next two hitters, and still maintained his velocity, hitting 95 once again, but he did continue to struggle with his command.  He required 22 pitches to get through the inning.
  Maese's cleanest inning of the night was the 6th, when he needed only 5 pitches to retire the side in order.  Back out for the 7th, Maese gave up a pair of soft grounders to start the inning, but his infield D let him down a bit.  SS JC Cardenas ranged to his right to scoop up a groundball from the leadoff hitter, but didn't have time to set up properly for the throw, and skipped it to first, allowing the hitter to beat it by a hair.  Two pitches later, 2B Ryan Metzler bobbled a routine groundball which most likely would have resulted in a double play had he not dropped it, leaving runners on first and second with no outs. The next hitter whiffed on a pair of bunt attempts, and swung and missed at Maese's third pitch for the first out of the inning, and with a left-handed hitter due next, and Maese at 80 pitches for the night, his outing was over.
   For the game, Maese threw 6.1 innings, gave up a pair of earned runs on six hits, allowed a walk, and fanned six.  He threw 80 pitches, 55 for strikes, and threw first strikes to 11 of the 26 hitters he faced. Maese had 8 swings-and-misses on the night, and recorded 8 ground ball outs, as opposed to 4 by fly balls. He worked consistently down in the zone for much of the night, relying mostly on his sinker, which showed good movement.  He pairs his sinker with an 89 mph slider, as well as his change, but stuck mostly with the fastball on this night.
   Maese is still a considerable distance away from MLB, and given his age and experience, there's no need to rush.  There was concern that he wouldn't be able to refine his mechanics or keep his velo up well into games, but he appears to have all but conquered those aspects.  His change is coming along nicely, but is still a work in progress.  Maese profiles as a weak-contact inducing pounder of the lower part of the strike zone. Promoting him to Lansing was a challenge, and while he's alternated some good outings with some in which he's struggled, Maese is making good progress.  At 19, there is projection remaining.   There may be more room for an extra mile or two per hour of velocity, and his fastball command and secondary pitches should continue to improve.  Expect to see him back at Lansing to start the year next season, but his development could really take off in 2017.

Blue Jays Farm System 2016 Overview

Sean Reid-Foley/Clutchlings Photo

     As spring training winds down, I begin to gear up for another season of minor league baseball.
As someone who grew up playing, coaching, umpiring, and watching the game, I find my heart is still more at the grassroots level; don't get me wrong - I will take your unwanted Blue Jays tickets if you don't want them, but on many summer evenings, you will find me with my laptop open as I watch our beloved Torontos on tv, scrolling through minor league boxscores, or watching Jays affiliates on milb.com ($49/yr - the video quality varies).  When the Jays were not competitive  for what seemed an eternity before last season, I was usually far more interested in what was going on in the farm system - with sometimes all seven teams in action on summer nights, there was usually a more interesting story going on than the one that was on tv.
   The minors, to me, bring back memories of the baseball of my youth.  The fans are closer to the action, and generally speaking, the players are much more accessible, be it at the park, or on social media.  When I visited the Phillies minor league contest to watch some games between the Phils and Jays prospects, I had the greatest view in the world - right behind home plate, a place I've never been at a major league game. When spring training games are on Sportsnet or my computer, I'm the guy who waits to watch until the late innings, when all the regulars are out of the game, to watch the minor leaguers I don't get to see a whole lot of.
   I've been following the progress of Blue Jays prospects since the early part of the century, when the internet began to make it increasingly easier.  I've been writing about them since 2013. I'm not a scout or a journalist - I fit somewhere in between.  I do like to evaluate players, and I think my skill in that area continues to be refined from season to season.  My sources of information are my own eyes, whether it be watching live, or (more likely) on my milb.tv subscription, as well as secondary sources from social media and online sources such as Baseball America.  I will look at a player's stats, but in the lower minors, sample size and context can be an issue, and a player's line can be impacted by things which he has little control over (in the case of pitcher's the defence behind them), so I look at secondary stats walk and strikeout rates, groundball rates, etc.


   The minors are a hierarchy.  Like any such organization, there are plenty of members at the bottom, and progressively fewer as you reach the top.  At any given time, a Major League team will have as many as 150 (or more) players in their minor league systems, but only a fraction of those will ever reach MLB.  Of the 900 players drafted every June, BA found that only about 1 in 6 (17%) of them will make it.  It's said that baseball is a game of failure, and the minors prove that - about no more 5 on any mnor league team, on average, will play even one game in the bigs.  For many, this is their first extended taste of adversity. Some respond to the challenge and up their game, while others don't, and wash out quickly.  Most were stars on their Little League, high school, or college teams.  Even the lowest picks can use the experience of 62nd rounder Mike Piazza, or closer to home,. 32nd round pick Kevin Pillar for motivation.  For those that are released by the Blue Jays, there's the hope that another organization will pick them up - Balbino Fuenmayor was signed with much hype as a 16-year-old in 2006, but was released 7 years later without having played above Low A. Fuenmayor resuscitated his career in independent ball after that, and now is on the verge of making the major leagues with the Royals.  Very few achieve such heights however.

   No other sport has an extensive a system of development as baseball's.  Because MLB players play every day, their skill level is exponentially higher than an amateur's, and it can take 4 or more years for even the highest rated prospects to make it.  As a result, most teams have 6 or 7 minor league teams, as well as an entry in the Dominican Summer League (a similar league existed in Venezuela, until political and economic turmoil there caused MLB teams to pull up stakes last fall).  The minors can be broken up into three distinct levels:  Short Season, Full Season, and the High Minors.  I will explain:

Short Season
   At the end of spring training, more advanced prospects head off to play for one of the four full season teams.  The rest stay behind in Florida for Extended Spring Training, in order to further their baseball educations before Short Season play begins.
   Playing a compressed schedule of about 60 games, Short Season play starts just past mid June, and wraps up by Labour Day, followed by a brief playoff.
   The Dominican Summer League houses prospects from across the Caribbean, most of whom were signed the previous year.  Players are housed in the team's complex, and take English classes, and get proper nutrition and training under one roof.  The schedule runs from late June til late August, with a brief playoff.  With the shuttering of the Venezuelan League, many top players from there will be sent to the Dominican, which may cause problems for teams without adequate space.  It's expected that most teams will have more than one entry in the DSL this summer. Predicting which top prospects will play there is always difficult, especially so for the Blue Jays, who spent most of their bonus pool allotment last year on Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who will probably skip the DSL (this just in.....there's a chance that he even skips the GCL).  Among the names expected to gather some attention are 17 year old Venezuelan OF McGergory Contreras, described as having "ability to hit and show power from the right side from his 6-foot-1, 170-pound frame," Dominican RHP Orlando Pascual, who touched 96 after signing, and Venezuelan RHP Maximo Castillo, who reportedly had a deal in place with the Yankees, but fell through because of an elbow problem, will likely make their pro debuts in the DSL this summer.

  Courtesy of my friends Baseball Betsy and Ross, is some video of Vladdy Jr hitting one out last fall:

...and some video from Chris King from a few weeks ago:

   The lowest level of Short Season play is the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, often known as the Gulf Roast League.  The Blue Jays entry is based out of their minor league complex in Dunedin, and they play other teams similarly based at their team's spring training bases.  Players take to the field at about 10 am for drills and instruction, then play a game under the hot Florida sun at about noon.  The "crowd" in attendance is limited to a few parents, girlfriends, and a handful of locals.  No admission is charged.  This is the first stop on the pro ball train for most players, or the first stop on the stateside line for Dominican and Venezuelan players.  Recent high school draftees and roster-filling free agents help fill out the roster.  Teams are not named for the towns or cities they play in, but for their MLB affiliation - some teams enter more than one team.  A sister league operates in Arizona at the same time.  Both may have an inflated number of teams this year, as many teams will not be able to house all of their Venezuelan players at their Dominican complexes, so many teams may have multiple entries in the GCL.

   The Blue Jays have traditionally not had stronger entries in this league - after all, winning takes a back seat in most minor leagues to development, perhaps most of all in the GCL - but last year was the most successful season in club history, as the team advanced to the championship series. June draftees like Pitchers Justin Maese and Jose Espada, and OF Reggie Pruitt made substantial contributions to the team, which was more of a veteran team than in the past.  SS Kevin Vicuna, OF Noberto Obeso, and Pitchers Jonathon Torres, Juan Meza  and Jairo Rosario may begin 2016 at this level.  For many Caribbean players, this is their first exposure to "Stateside" play, and can be a huge jump competitively and culturally for them.  When many rehabbing Blue Jays are ready to come off the Disabled List and return to action, they begin their return to action under the watchful eyes of team medical staff in the GCL.  Jason Parks, formerly of Baseball Prospectus, wrote an excellent article about the hurdles Caribbean prospects face when they come to America in an essay called, "From the Buscones to the Bus Leagues," and is well worth the read if you come across it.

   The next level of Short Season play is the "under the lights" Advanced Rookie leagues.  The Blue Jays have an entry in Bluefield, WV, in the Appalachian League.  For many players (except those from major college programs, who usually start at a higher level), this is their first extended experience with travel baseball, and playing night games in front of paying spectators.  The crowds are not huge (the Bluefield Jays attracted an average of just over 800 fans per game), but it's the next step in their baseball education. Top prospects don't tend to spend a lot of time in Bluefield, but the team made the 2014 Appy League playoffs. Bluefield is managed by legendary Blue Jays lifer Dennis Holmberg, who has been with the organization since 1979.  It seems like an assignment to Bluefield is entirely dependent on how a prospect fares in Extended Spring Training;  a successful spring seems to result in a skip from the GCL to Vancouver, while a struggling player often only moves up the one rung from the GCL to the Appy League.

  The highest rung on the Short Season ladder is Short Season Class A.  These leagues still play compressed schedules (70 games), and are populated mostly by recent college draftees, and players who have a year or two of pro experience.  The Blue Jays have had a wildly successful affiliation with the Vancouver Canadians of the Northwest League.  The C's captured the Northwest League title in the first three years of their partnership with the Jays, and reached the final in their fourth.  The team missed the playoffs last year for a variety of reasons - some of the prospects who were sent to the Lower Mainland did not fare as expected, and many of the other players sent to Vancouver were more organization guy-types than top prospects.  Again, with development being the focus of minor league teams, the C's run was the exception, not the rule.

   The Blue Jays are quite happy with their affiliation with Vancouver.  Playing in BC gives the players a sample of what life is like in Canada, with our metric system, multi-coloured currency, and other differences from life in America, as well as the experience of going through Customs to play other teams in the League.  Plus, the C's help grow the Blue Jays brand.  After finishing 2nd to Spokane in attendance for the last number of years, after installing a new set of left field bleachers, Vancouver led the NWL last year, averaging almost 6000 fans a game, and setting a new league mark.  If you find yourself on the West Coast, be sure to take in a C's game, and have a craft beer for me.
  It's very hard to put a handle on which prospects will be sent to each level.  Some go one step at a time, while others get skipped if the organization feels they're up to the challenge.  Vancouver should see prospects like Maese, Espada, and Pruitt at some point this summer, and maybe even Pitchers like Guadalupe Chavez.

Full Season
Class A
   Full season leagues are just that - ones that play a schedule similar to a major league team's.  Full season ball starts just a few days after MLB, and ends on Labour Day.  To help keep fan interest up, most leagues have a split season format, which means that the winner of the first half of each division usually meets a second half winner in the first round of an expanded playoff format.  Class A is divided into Low and Advanced A - the Low-A players are often getting their first shot at playing every day, while Advanced A is for players in need of a greater challenge.  Both levels give players a chance to experience extended road trips, and whereas many Short Season players live with a host family, players in Class A are on their own, which brings with it a whole other set of challenges.

  The Blue Jays Low-A affiliate is based in Lansing, MI, in the Midwest League.  It's only a five-hour trip from Toronto, and many Southern Ontario fans make the trek to catch the Lugnuts.  Blue Jays front office exces also make the trip from time-to-time to check up on prospects.  Lansing is also a convenient place for a rehabbing MLBer like a Marcus Stroman or Brett Lawrie to spend a few days in.  Top prospects possibly headed to Lansing include last year's first round pick RHP Jon Harris,,  LHP Angel Perdomo, LHP Evan Smith, IF Lane Thomas and possibly the oft-injured but talented LHP Ryan Borucki, and Toronto native IF Connor Panas.

Connor Panas/Clutchlings Photo

  Toronto's High A affiliate plays at their spring training base in Dunedin, in the Florida State League. Unlike their other minor league teams (save for the GCL Jays), the Blue Jays own the Dunedin Blue Jays.  The Florida State League is a very pitcher-friendly league, as the humid Florida air and the MLB-sized spring training parks the other FSL teams play in help to turn many long balls into warning track outs.  2015 Midwest League MVP Ryan McBroom, C Danny Jansen, RHP Sean Reid-Foley, and Canadian RHP Tom Robson, who came back from Tommy John surgery late last summer, and just hit 97 on the gun in Florida - Robson may be a fast mover this season.

Tom Robson/Clutchlings Photo

AA
   The jump from A to AA can be one of the biggest transitions in the minors.  Up until that point, players can sometimes get by on physical talent alone, but players at this level tend to have a plan.
  Pitchers who could get by on the velocity of their fastball in the lower levels now need some deception, as the hitters at this level can get around on premium velo.  AA pitchers need to have command of their secondary pitches to be able to succeed at this level.
   The Blue Jays have been quite happy with their affiliation with the Eastern League's New Hampshire Fisher Cats, even though their home of Manchester, NH, is in the heart of Red Sox country, as their website would suggest:

  For several years, it was rumoured that several groups were trying to relocate an existing Eastern League franchise to Ottawa.  The nation's capital would be a great fit for the Blue Jays, but city council balked at the price tag to bring RCGT Park up to MiLB standards.  For now, the issue is mostly dead, and the Blue Jays and Fisher Cats have an agreement until 2018, so it's likely to remain so for some time.  

   CF Anthony Alford, 1B Rowdy Tellez, and P Conner Greene will likely be heading to New Hampshire to begin the season.

AAA

   More and more, this level has become a holding pen for minor and major league veterans who are only a phone call away in the event of an injury.  Teams now tend to use their Major League and AAA bullpens almost interchangeably - an MLB team's pen is now limited not to the 7 relievers on the 25-man roster, but 4 or 5 arms in AAA as well.  AAA also serves as a sort of finishing school for a few top prospects like Dalton Pompey. The Jays have had a great relationship with Buffalo since 2013.  Its proximity to the GTA means that bullpen help can be summoned in the morning, and arrive in time for a game that night with plenty of time to spare.  The Bisons also benefit from the association with the Blue Jays brand, as many Ontario licence plates can be seen at border crossings prior to a Bisons game.  Many restaurants dot the area around Coca-Cola Field, just a short hop over the Peace Bridge.  At Washington Sqaure Grill, a Cheers-like establishment, dinner and a beverage for two goes for about $20 US.  The Anchor Bar, birthplace of the Buffalo chicken wing, is nearby. The Bisons will be accepting the Canadian dollar at par for tickets and concessions through May 8th. They also will have a cool new alternate cap this year:

   

  The Bisons will be stocked with veterans this year, but one or more of Alford, Greene, and Tellez may arrive there this summer.  Regardless of who is on the roster, Buffalo is well worth making the trip down the QEW.  Beautiful downtown ballpark, and great value for the money is what it offers.

     How the Minor Leagues Work

   The minor leagues were one time wholly independent entities. They depended on gate receipts ahd the sale of players to make a profit. Babe Ruth became a Red Sox in 1914 because the owner of the team that signed him, the (then) minor league Baltimore Orioles, was in dire straits because of a new Federal League franchise in town.  Branch Rickey was one of the first baseball executives to realize that the minors could be a steady source of players in an MLB team was to find a way to take control of minor league teams, giving birth to the first farm system. As Bill James said:

"The minor leagues did not start out as what they are.  By a long series of actions and agreements, inducements, and rewards, the minor leagues were reduced in tiny degrees from entirely independent sovereignties into vassal states, existing only to serve the needs of major league baseball."

   The minors and majors continued an uneasy alliance for the first half of the last century.  On the one hand, after World War Two, they were prospering, with 448 teams spread over 59 leagues drawing just under 40 million fans.  On the other, MLB teams were gobbling up their minor league brethren at an alarming rate, with fewer and fewer independent teams existing each season.  With the advent of radio (the St Louis Cardinals flagship station, clear-channel KMOX began broadcasting games throught the south and west in the 1950s; many cite this as a major death blow to minor leage ball), the minors began to rapidly shrink in popularity.  Expansion, televsion, and the growth of other sports all spelled the end of the minors as was known for over eight decades.  A renaissance of sorts has occurred over the past two decades, as minor league baseball has seen a re-birth thanks to a spate of new stadiums, and a fun, fan-friendly environment.
  The minors are dependent on the major league club for financial support (the MLB teams pay the salaries of all their affiliated players), while the MLB team needs the minor club to provide an atmosphere that is conducive to player development.
   Minor league players are paid on a scale according to their experience and the level they're at. - they don't make much.  Certainly, players who signed for a bonus aren't hurting financially, but most MiLBers are pretty strapped - they earn less than minimum wage, do not get paid during spring training, and get only a $20/day meal allowance when they're not at home.
   The lifeline between MLB and MiLB teams is the Player Development Contract.  They are renewed in September of even years. A minor league team may opt out on the expiry date if they're not happy with the quality of players they've received; a major league team may do the same if they feel it's not an appropriate environment for their prospects.  The Jays' PDC with all of their teams other than New Hampshire and Dunedin are up for renewal this fall; it's hard to see them making any changes at this point.

   When a player is signed or drafted, the major league team has four or five years (depending on their age) to place them on the team's 40-man roster, or they risk losing them in the Rule 5 draft, which was designed to prevent teams from hoarding minor league talent.  The Rule 5 is a gamble, because the team selecting a player in that draft has to keep him on the major league roster for a full season, or offer him back to his original team for half the $50 000 draft price.  Teams have become adept at finding niche players in this draft, with the Blue Jays Joe Biagini being one.  Biagini had a limited future as a starter, but the Blue Jays felt that putting him in the bullpen and paring his pitch arsenal down would result in more velo and better command.
  In order for a player to be eligible to be called up to the major leagues, he must be placed on the team's 40-man roster first - this often results in other roster moves to make room for him.  Once placed on the 40, a team can option a player to the minors an unlimited number of times for three seasons.  After that, if a team wishes to send a 40-man player to the minors, he must pass through waivers, or a team can designate him for assignment, which gives them 10 days to release, trade, be put on waivers, or outrighted to the minors (if he clears waivers), removing him from the 40-man.


    I regularly write about the goings on in the Blue Jays minor league system.  Often, I know I'm writing about players only a few of us care about, but if you want to know who the next Blue Jays rising star is before your friends, please fill in the box at the top of this page, and weekly (or more often) update emails will show up in your inbox.