Brazilian IFA P Eric Pardinho Linked to Blue Jays

WBC Baseball photo

      A bit of a throwaway at the end of an excellent analysis of the top Blue Jays prospects by Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs was this tidbit about a rising International Free Agent prospect:

I’ve also heard the team mentioned as a potential suitor for Brazilian righty Eric Pardinho, who will be eligible to sign with a club in July

  It took me a few hours to remember it, but I knew that name, and had seen him pitch before.  At the tender age of 15, Pardinho became the youngest player in WBC history when he pitched in the 6th inning of his native Brazil's 10-0 whitewashing of Pakistan in a WBC qualifier last October.  Prospect hunters like myself had tuned in to watch Toronto's 2016 2nd round pick, Bo Bichette, suit up for the Brazilians.
   In truth, the Pakistani team was overmatched against  Brazil.  The athleticism was there, but the lack of baseball experience was painfully obvious.  Pardinho acquitted himself well just the same, surrendering a hit (up 1-2, he hung a breaking ball) and a walk in two-thirds of an inning.  Pardinho's first pitch clocked in at 94 mph.  He was half the age of some of the hitters he was facing.

   Eric Pardinho hails from Bastos, a town in the state of Sao Paolo with a significant Japanese heritage.  His mother, in fact, was born in Brazil to Japanese parents, and Pardinho spent part of his childhood in Japan. He entered Brazil's famous CT Yakult Academy at the age of 12, and spent three years there, using "traditional Japanese training techniques."  He first gained international acclaim at the U16 Pan Am championships in Panama last year, fanning 14 and giving up just one hit against a prospect-laded Dominican Republic team.  Pardinho has also spent time at the MLB Elite Camp which is housed at the Yakult complex.

   At 5'10"/165, there are some concerns about Pardinho's size, but the Blue Jays have a starter in the rotation who has easily dispelled that notion.  One look at his parents suggest that he won't get a lot bigger, but there is still plenty to like about him.  Pardinho has hit 95 with his fastball, but usually sits at 93.  There's ample room for added velocity there.  He has a clean, drop-and-drive delivery which he consistently repeats, and has a solid lower half, which should mean that despite the speed his teenage elbow has been subjected to, his health history is likely clean.
   In addition to his fastball, Pardinho's curve is said to be his best secondary pitch.  Pardinho pitched at a Perfect Game World Showcase earlier this year, and this report was filed on him:

 Medium, athletic frame with square shoulders, very nice build with present strength throughout, strong lower half and core which are incorporated into delivery. Primary righthanded pitcher, lots of tempo, rhythm, and balance to delivery, high leg lift up past belt, gathers over rubber well and and shows a long and fluid arm stroke through the backside working to a high three-quarters arm slot. Advanced ability to repeat delivery, especially for age, and remains on line with lower half directionality. Very low effort delivery and release, able to generate plane on fastball and showed advanced command of fastball that lived comfortably in the 90-93 mph range. Worked either side of the plate with fastball with intent, curveball shows downer life and 12-6 shape with late, tight bite at 79 mph, slider was just as tight at 81 mph with solid finish to the glove side. 

    Calling him "A special kid," Carlos Santos-Silva, coordinator of international game development for MLB said:

       His size is not too striking, but the ball just explodes out of his hand. There is a lot of      potential. Not just to be a player, but to also be a spokesperson for the game in Brazil.

   Yan Gomes was the first Brazilian to play in MLB, making his debut with the Blue Jays in 2012.  Since then, Padres P Andres Rienzo and Royals OF Paulo Orlando have joined him.  Brazil has long been viewed as a fertile, untapped market of prospects.  Hall of Famer Barry Larkin has helped lead MLB's efforts in the South American country, Managing the WBC entry last fall, and helping to establish MLB's first Brazilian complex.  Pardhino may become the first of many signings from that country over the next few years.


   2016 was a hangover year for the Blue Jays in terms of International signings.  Having broken the bank for Vladimir Guerrero Jr the year before, Toronto could not sign a prospect to a bonus of greater than $300 000.  Blue Jays Assistant GM Andrew Tinnish was understandably tight-lipped about the club's plans for this year's July 2nd signings ("I'd prefer to talk about our strategy on July 3rd," he said in an interview), but it's no surprise to hear that the Blue Jays have targeted one of the highest profile IFAs this year.  Pardinho has reportedly been scouted by the Mets, Giants, Reds, and Padres, and had workouts this spring in Arizona for the Angels and the Indians.  According to Longerhans, though, the Blue Jays have the inside track.  We hear rumours of teams being involved with players all the time, but where there's International smoke, there's usually fire.  Guerrero was widely said to have a pre-July 2nd agreement (unofficially, of course) with the Blue Jays long before he actually signed on the dotted line.

  Pardinho does have some red flags:  his age, his relative lack of size, and despite his delivery and training (he wasn't allowed to throw breaking balls until he was 13), there has to be some concern about his elbow with that 90+ FB. At the same time, many MLB organizations would love to get their top prospects into their respective folds by 16,  not 18.  In addition, when you look at the number of decent pitchers under 6', it's actually a pretty impressive list.  As far as the elbow is concerned, most teams would have to be cautious, but it's pretty hard to pass on that velocity.   There is much to suggest that there is huge upside here.

  It won't be a big surprise to see the Blue Jays land Pardinho on July 2nd.

Some video for your consideration....

 

 

On Aaron Sanchez, The Year After Effect, and Smarter Pitch Counts

Butch Dill/USA Today Sports 

   With the news that Aaron Sanchez landed a spot in the Blue Jays starting rotation has come a concern for his young arm, and the innings that he may have to pitch as a starter this year.

   Blue Jays bloggers and media types alike have trotted out rules-of-thumb like the Year After Effect (sometimes mistakenly termed the Verducci effect) to explain how the Blue Jays will determine how many innings Sanchez, whose season high to this point is just over 130, will throw this season. Others suggest that Sanchez will be skipped at various times this year, some say that he will spend time in the bullpen in order to protect his young arm, and a few have even gone as far as to say that he will be shut down, a la Stephen Strasburg, when he reaches his supposed innings limit.

  All of this speculation ignores a basic fact - measures such as the Year After Effect, innings limits, and even to some extent simple pitch counts are very outdated means of monitoring a young arm. Many significant new advances have taken place over the past decade.

   One thing is certain:  the risk of a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament, which can usually only be corrected by Tommy John surgery (the Jays tried rehab and Platelet-Rich Therapy with Roberto Osuna in 2013, with limited results, before submitting to Tommy John), drops significantly after 25 years of age, meaning that Sanchez is still in his prime years of risk.  Whatever measure the Blue Jays use, they will be carefully protecting him for at least a few more seasons.

   President Mark Shapiro as quietly been going about constructing a model organization in terms of player training and development since taking over last fall.  He has established the Blue Jays own version of a Centre for High Performance, hiring experts in strength and conditioning, nutrition, physiotherapy, and sport psychology to staff it.  As the team negotiates with the City of Dunedin on a new spring training agreement, a new, state-of-the-art training facility is likely a crucial part of those talks.  High Performance Centres are nothing new in the world of sport, but they are somewhat revolutionary in the world of baseball, and this no doubt has been a dream of the forward-thinking Shapiro for some time, but was not something his budget-conscious previous employer was willing to fund.

 No doubt part of the mandate for this new facet of the organization is injury prevention - something which is still just starting to gain traction in baseball, whose approach to arm injuries up to this point has been mostly restorative.  And the approaches they will use go far beyond the Year After Effect.

  The YAE has gotten a bit of a bad rap, but it, at least, was an attempt to make a systematic study of why UCLs were tearing.  The underlying assumption of it, as well as regular pitch counts, is that all innings and all pitches are created equal - and they're not.  A three-up, three-down, 8 pitch inning is not the same as one that approaches 30 (the magic number for Blue Jays pitching prospects - their day is over if they reach that limit in any inning), and a pitch with no runners on in a scoreless game in the 2nd is not the same in terms of leverage as one thrown with runners in scoring position in the 6th.  Pitcher fatigue is the culprit when it comes to injuries - the point at which a pitcher's mechanics become shoddy because he's tiring.  The out of sync mechanics that happen when a pitcher becomes tired are usually the cause of injury.

 But there are far more effective means of determining when a pitcher is becoming tired.  Smart Pitch Counts take into account the type of pitch and situation its thrown in, and come up with a score to determine pitcher fatigue.  Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus introduced the concept of Pitcher Abuse Points almost 20 years ago, and has reviewed and revised the formula to determine when a pitcher might be fatigued to the point of risking severe injury.

 Motus, which describes itself as "The Global Leader in Biomechanics for Sports Injury Prevention and Performance Analysis" has developed a compression sleeve with a sensor inside of it which can track the motion of a pitcher's arm as he delivers a pitch.  Many teams, including the Blue Jays, have been using it for that past few seasons.  The data generated by the sensor can be tracked by an iPhone app, but it sounds like the device is still a work in progress.  It's more than likely that some MLB teams have invested in some deeper proprietary analysis with this device.

 One thing seems to be unanimous throughout the baseball community:  poor mechanics are often the cause of pitcher injury.  Add to that a growing understanding of how to properly train and develop a pitcher, and you have the growth of training companies like Driveline Baseball, which uses weighted ball training and super slow motion video analysis to both build velocity and protect the arm through increased strength. Driveline uses a four step method to train pitchers, including training blocks dedicated to building arm strength, improving range of motion and force development, and "reorganizing proprioception" (basically, building what some refer to as muscle memory).  They are on the cutting edge of pitching research, but they are still virtually pioneers in the baseball world at the moment.

   That Sanchez was being considered for the bullpen was understandable, given his performance there, and the toll starting appeared to have taken on him last year.  As August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs has pointed out, Sanchez is a different pitcher this spring.  Not only has he started to transform his body (I'm impressed with the work he's done, but I am a bit of a cynic - it usually takes, about a year for a new training regimen to start showing significant results for elite athletes, not a three month off-season), but he's vastly improved his control - he's walked just 3 of the 78 hitters he's faced this spring.  Even with the presence of vet Gavin Floyd, Sanchez should have easily been in the mix for a starting job.  He's been one of the best pitchers in Florida this spring.  Perhaps the biggest factor has been improved command of his secondary pitches.  The club had to balance what was best for both the team this year and in the future, but this was absolutely the right move.  The Blue Jays have been accused in the past of babying their top young arms, but starting two years ago, they became very aggressive with their promotions.  There is always a fine line to be walked between challenging a young player and putting him a place where he's most likely to be successful, but Sanchez will never learn how to turn over a lineup from the back end of the bullpen.

   What does this all mean for Aaron Sanchez?  It's hard to say for certain, but the Blue Jays have likely been using technology to monitor his mechanics, in addition to the preventative work he did with his good buddy Marcus Stroman this off season.  As far as what the team's plan is for Sanchez, it's safe to say that the detail-oriented Shapiro has one in place.  It may involve skipping turns in the rotation, although it's hard to see him spend shuttling between the bullpen and the rotation this year - not with veteran swingman Jesse Chavez on the staff.  Manager John Gibbons did suggest to reporters that Sanchez will not spend the entire season as a starter, but did say that we wouldn't see a Strasburg-like shutdown of him, telling reporters “It’s not one of those things where he’s not going to pitch this year, like happened in another place a few years ago.”  If the plan is to move Sanchez to the bullpen, the stress that can be caused my warming up multiple times, and pitching in high leverage situations has to be considered.  Given the depth the Blue Jays have in the bullpen compared to a year ago (if everyone stays healthy), Sanchez may not need to make as much of a contribution as he did last year.
  Whatever the plan is for Sanchez, it will not be based just on pitch counts or innings.  GM Ross Atkins told the media that the new High-Performance division will play a large part in determining direction for Sanchez:

“It’s one thing for a general manager or a pitching coach to come up with a framework on how to monitor fatigue levels, It’s another thing for an expert in sports science to come up with a framework to measure that.”

   What will this new department use to determine when the risk of injury to Sanchez exceeds his value to the rotation?  Probably a combination of metrics - Smart Pitch counts, video analysis, and data from a Motus-like measuring device, as well as analytics involving pitch velocity and movement, as well as input from key personnel.

Conner Greene Offers a Glimpse of the Future

Rocket Sports photo

  

Righthander Conner Greene made his spring training MLB debut on Saturday, striking out 3 of the 4 batters he faced in a one-inning relief stint against the Phillies.

  If there has been a constant in terms of player development and drafting during the reign for former GM Alex Anthopoulos, it has been that of the tall, lean, and athletic high school pitcher.  Greene, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Daniel Norris, and Jon Harris are just a few of that type of pitcher acquired during the Anthopoulos era.  Certainly, they were able to step outside of that box to sign a Roberto Osuna and draft a Marcus Stroman, because the organization values projection above all else.
  When push has come to shove, however, the tall pitcher (who can change a batter's view of a pitch, possibly forcing him to lose the ability to track it thanks to its downward plane), who is lean (to better withstand the rigours of pitching 175-200 innings), and athletic (in order to consistently repeat his delivery and field his position) is what the Blue Jays coveted.
   Greene fits that profile to a T.  The Californian was drafted in the 7th round of 2013, and didn't make his full-season debut until last year - and what a debut it was, as Greene pitched well at 3 levels.  Hitting his innings limit meant that he wasn't sent to the Arizona Fall League for some extra reps against elite competition.
 
   In his inning of work, Greene did not face any legit MLB bats, but he worked well down in the zone, hitting 98 with his fastball at one point.  He went up against Nick Williams, the Phillies' 4th-ranked prospect, as well as journeymen Emmanuel Burriss and J.P. Arencibia, and non-prospect Ryan Jackson.  Greene walked Arencibia, and showed that his changeup may still need some refining, as the former Jay tomahawked one into the left field stands.   That was the only loud contact Greene gave up though, which is more in keeping with his projection as a ground ball machine. Striking out the side was a bit out of character - even though Greene struggles with his command from time to time, he's often only a pitch away from getting an inning-ending double play ball.

  I know that I can be rough on Blue Jays TV analyst Buck Martinez, who often appears to be spouting off whatever research his producers gave him, but he offered some good insights into Greene during the broadcast.  Martinez mentioned how Greene played all nine positions on his high school team, and described his athleticism as he watched Greene kick a soccer ball around before the game with Jose Bautista.  As a former Catcher, Buck can probably identify a good pitching prospect as well as anyone, and it was obvious that he sees one in Greene.


  How about some GIFs of Greene's performance?
His strikeout of Williams:

 A.J. Jimenez frames a strike beautifully against Arencibia:

The change that Arencibia was early on:

   Greene finished his season at New Hampshire, and with the veteran starting rotation that has been assembled at Buffalo, it's likely he returns to New England to begin this season. His development last year was no doubt accelerated by the trading spree Anthopoulos went on last July, but he still may have finished up at AA given his success in High A.
    That mid-rotation starter ceiling is looking more and more likely, although Greene still has a few things to work on, namely command of his secondaries like that change.  Against more discerning MLB hitters, that change he left out over the plate against Arencibia might have been hit to Kissimmee.

Blue Jays Prospect Suspended 50 games for Amphetamine Use

Rocketsports.com photo

  The Blue Jays chose Kentucky HS RHP  Clinton Hollon with their 2nd pick in the 2013 draft.  Rated one of the Top 100 potential picks that year by Baseball America, their scouting report on Hollon says much of what you need to know about him:

Hollon started throwing in the mid-90s after his sophomore season, establishing himself as a potential first-round pick for 2013. Elbow tendinitis sapped his arm strength toward the end of last summer, but he has bounced back this spring to work at 90-93 mph with a peak of 95. He’s athletic and has good arm speed, but the 6-foot-1, 195-pounder also throws with some effort. That costs him command and consistency, though at his best Hollon can display a sharp slider that projects as a plus pitch and a changeup that projects as average. Questions persist about his maturity, which could knock him down to the third round. Though he has committed to Kentucky and may not get selected as early as once expected, teams consider him signable.

   Arm troubles, concerns about his delivery, a possible college commitment, and questions about his makeup - and an electric arm:  that tends to add up to the kind of high-risk, high-reward athlete the Blue Jays covet, and after failing to sign California High Schooler Phil Bickford, Hollon became the organization's top pick in 2013.

   Hollon pitched in the GCL and Appy Leagues after signing, but had some elbow issues, and after the condition flared up again in spring training the next year, he underwent Tommy John surgery.  With a new UCL and a renewed focus (Hollon became a father in the offseason), Hollon was named Vancouver's Opening Day starter when the Northwest League season began play in mid-June.

   Hollon was very effective for the C's, and earned a promotion to the Midwest League in early August.  His Lansing debut was spectacular, retiring the final 19 hitters he faced in succession, and he pitched well in two other starts.

   And then things came crashing down on Hollon.

   He was suspended for 50 games for violating Minor League Baseball;s drug prevention and treatment program, after testing positive for an amphetamine.  Hollon will not be paid during this suspension, which will carry over into next year.

   There is no word as to what the amphetamine was at this point, although it's highly likely that it came from a supplement Hollon purchased, and it may be even more likely that he was unaware that he was consuming a banned substance.  He would not be the first Blue Jays prospect to experience this - Marcus Stroman was suspended for 50 games near the end of the 2012 season for a failed test.  The substance Stroman tested positive for apparently was methylhexaneamine, a supposedly mild stimulant that was in a supplement he had purchased from a GNC store.  All Blue Jays prospects are given a list of products that are safe to use, and it would appear that like Stroman, Hollon strayed from this list, for whatever reason.  The Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport warned athletes several years ago that some supplement manufacturers are less than honest about their package labelling, and some of those products can contain banned substances either deliberately, or due to contamination.

  So, the question becomes - why did Hollon do it?  What did he hope to gain from it?  Was it arrogance or naivete?
  Ok, so that's three questions.  I'll do my best to offer some answers.  First of all, for the uninitiated, it's not unusual for athletes to take supplements.  They place demands on their bodies far in excess of what you and I do (and at that, this active blogger puts a bit of protein powder in his smoothie from time to time after a long bike ride or ski).  The need to recover from today's workout is important so that they can go on to tomorrow's. And the minor league lifestyle, with long bus trips, and $20/day meal money on the road, is not exactly conducive to a healthy diet.
   You can buy these supplements just about anywhere - you don't need a GNC. Our local Loblaws offers up several huge plastic tubs of various concoctions in the health food section.  I suspect that Hollon had taken his illegal substances without knowing - I just can't see how a guy in the lower minors who makes less than what a fast-food worker makes (even one who signed for a below slot $476K bonus) would be intentionally be taking something illegal in order to enhance his performance.
   Hollon did, however, move away from that list of approved products, so the question really becomes why take that chance?  I would think maybe it was a case of bad judgement, more than thinking that he knew better than the Blue Jays medical staff.  When you live a life of dedicating yourself to a singular talent, you don't always develop the greatest perspective on the world - Hollon may have thought that whatever he was taking would still pass muster on the testing front.  And he will have to live with that choice.  The Blue Jays, for their part, have invested heavily in Hollon, both with his bonus and his surgery, and showed patience with Stroman for making the same poor decision.  One would suspect that they'll continue to be so with Hollon.

   We don't know, of course, what substance Hollon was found to have taken, but it seems a safe bet that he wasn't aware of taking it.  What we do know is that he's responsible for whatever he puts in his body.  We also know that Lansing, gearing up for the MWL playoffs after taking the first half Eastern Division title, now has a huge hole in the middle of their starting rotation.  And as for Hollon, whose development has already been set back, he will not pitch again until late May at the earliest, and those questions about his makeup will likely continue.

   I leave the last word on the subject to Hollon himself, who was quoting Kid Rock, and may not have realized he was being prophetic at the time:

You get what you put in! And people get what they deserve!!!

— Clinton Hollon (@HollonClinton) August 18, 2015

A Look at a Trio of Promising Arms

Kyle Castle/MiLB.com photo

  I've written a great deal about the approach to the June draft that the Toronto Blue Jays have taken in the tenure of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  It has been flexible, and changed in response to new draft rules, and fluctuating draft crop quality, but one thing has held firm:  this is an organization that is not afraid to roll the dice.  Not afraid to look for players in non-traditional markets (Anthony Alford), players with concerns about height (Marcus Stroman), players with college commitments (Daniel Norris), and senior season role change players (Matt Boyd).
   Two elements unify almost all of their draft choices: projection and athleticism.  They will take a player that other teams might pass on if they see those two qualities in abundance.

   Projection is the ability to visualize a player not as what he is now, but what he might be in three to four years time, with a transformed body and, in the case of pitchers, streamlined mechanics.
  Athleticism is the ability of that player to make the changes necessary to make that projection a reality.

   This would explain, of course, the Blue Jays preference for drafting high school players.  For one, scouting a pitcher is relatively easier than scouting a hitter.  Scouts can quantify a pitcher's performance:  delivery, velocity of pitches, plane on his breaking ball, etc.  The unevenness of pitching, especially at the high school level, can make evaluating hitters more of a subjective process.

   Secondly, while some teams aren't afraid of letting colleges develop their talent, and there are some highly-regarded programs in terms of pitcher development, the Blue Jays are part of a group of teams that prefers to get their pitchers as soon as possible, getting them into pro ball and refining (or in some cases, re-making) their mechanics before they learn bad habits in college.

   Over the past few days, thanks to milb.tv, I was able to watch three pitchers who took different routes to pro ball, but all have that athleticism and projection in common:   2013 7th rounder out of Santa Monica HS, Conner Greene, 1st round pick Jon Harris from Missouri State (the Jays had drafted him out of high school in the 33rd round in 2012), and 2011 International Free Agent Angel Perdomo.

  Greene was 6'3", and all of 165 pounds when the Blue Jays drafted him.  He's added about 20 lbs to his frame since that time, and has been on a rapid ascent in the system this year.  Beginning the year with Lansing, striking out 65 hitters in 67 innings, Greene was getting stronger with every start in his first year of full season ball.  Promoted to Dunedin at the beginning of July, he burst onto the prospect radar with a 7-inning, 10 strikeout effort a month later, that earned him a promotion to AA New Hampshire.  A bump in curveball velocity was responsible for much of that:

Over past week, #BlueJays Conner Greene has added 7 mph to his curveball. Used it a bunch getting career-high 10 Ks tonight.

— Jake Seiner (@Jake_Seiner) August 7, 2015

  Heading into his New Hampshire debut, the 20-year old Greene had not given up an earned run in his last three starts, a stretch of 18 innings.  He survived a rocky first inning, in which his first five pitches were balls, aided by a 4-6-3 double play.  In the second, he needed only 7 pitches to exit the inning, helped again by a 6-4-3 twin killing.  After a tidy nine-pitch third, Greene ran into a bit of trouble in the 4th, hitting 96 on the gun to strike out Cleveland's top pick from last year, Kyle Zimmer, and then inducing his third double play of the night to escape the inning unscathed.
   Greene cruised through the 5th and 6th, attacking the strike zone better than he had earlier in the game, his confidence obviously growing.  He left after 6 shutout innings, giving up only 3 hits, walking 3, and striking out 1.  Greene threw 70 pitches on the night, 43 for strikes.  He induced 9 ground ball outs, while giving up only 3 flyball outs.  He had only two swinging strikes on the night, but did not give up much hard contact - the video quality tailed off late in the game, but I counted only two hard hit balls on the night against him.
   With the vacancies created by the Blue Jays trade deadline deals, there is now room for up-and-comers like Greene.  His fastball/sinker/curve combination plays well, and with runners on, there is always the threat of the double play ball.
  Here's the inning-ending ground ball that Greene finished his start with:

   I didn't chart the piggyback start of Harris and Perdomo, in order to get a general impression of them first.  I have to add that the video quality from Hillsboro was excellent - good camera angles, picture quality, and even replays.  Kudos to that organization, and let's hope Lansing and Vancouver can eventually come up with video as well.

   The Blue Jays were thrilled to get Harris with the 29th pick of the first round.  Here's Baseball America's scouting report on the tall right hander:

 He stepped into the Bears' weekend rotation as a freshman and had immediate success, but he's now a significantly more physical pitcher and the fastball that quickly dipped to the mid-80s when he was in high school now sits at 91-93 mph all day and he will touch 95. Harris mixes in a pair of breaking balls, a 12-to-6 curveball that flashes plus and a solid-average slider that he is able to throw for strikes. His changeup is a potentially average pitch as well, and some scouts have seen each secondary pitch flash plus. Harris missed two starts with an ankle injury but pitched a complete-game shutout in his return from injury, answering any questions about his health. Harris has pitched deep into games consistently this year. He's worked into the eighth inning of eight of his last nine starts and was averaging 110 pitches an outing this year. Harris' control is still shaky at times--he's walked 3.2 batters per nine innings but he also generates lots of swings and misses (10.8 strikeouts per nine innings).

  Harris has had only modest success with Vancouver this year, but not much was expected from him after throwing over 100 college innings.  His pitch count has been limited, but his most recent start against Hillsboro showed much of what BA reported about him.  He struggled a bit in the first two innings, and needed both a nifty 4-6-3 double play on a slow roller, and a pair of sparkling defensive plays by 3rd Baseman Justin Atkinson to get out of trouble, but he began pounding the bottom of the strike zone in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th, and while he gave up 4 hits in this outing, only 2 were balls that were hit hard, and one was an opposite field, down the line double.  His fastball peaked at 93.
   Harris can get out of synch with his windup, and he loses the strike zone for a few pitches as a result.  He was able to make adjustments to his delivery, and came up with his best pro outing, shutting Hillsboro out on over 5 innings, walking a pair, and striking out 4.  We have not seen the best from Harris in his first pro season, but this was a glimpse of maybe what to come next year.
   Video of the final out of Harris' outing:

   As good as Harris was on this occasion, he was outshone by newly promoted lefty Angel Perdomo.  The 6'6" Dominican has been on my radar for a little over a year.  The 2011 International Free Agent was not a huge bonus signing, and he pitched in this game like he had something to prove.  Brought along slowly by the Jays, he didn't make his stateside debut in the GCL until last year, and after demonstrating good command at Bluefield, he got the call to the Pacific Northwest.
   Perdomo has a nice, loose, and easy delivery, somewhat reminiscent of Aaron Sanchez - but with far more control.  Coming into the game in relief of Harris in the 6th, Perdomo allowed only a walk through four innings, and threw first-pitch strikes to 12 of the 13 hitters he faced.  His length allows him great extension on his pitches, and gives his fastball some late life.  The Hillsboro play-by-play man gave no indication as to Perdomo's velocity, but the Hops' hitters were overmatched against the 21 year old, who retired 7 of his 12 outs via the strikeout.
   This was an impressive outing.  It was only one game, but Perdomo already shows superb command of his fastball.  Time will tell with his secondaries, but this is one live arm.  It's unfortunate that there's no video clip to share, because of the these three strong performances by Blue Jays prospect pitchers, this was the one that stood out the most.

   Greene is by far the closest to MLB ready of the three, but will likely need at least another year of seasoning in the minors.  Harris and Perdomo should both start in full season ball next year, with their starting point being either Lansing or Dunedin.  Harris, despite his struggles, is the more polished of the pair, and may move quickly this season if he's successful.  The Blue Jays ultimately may have to decide if Perdomo is more effective in a relief or starting role.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week#4: Moving Day

  In the best case scenario, MLB farm departments like to give players at least two months of play to start the season at a level before they make a decision as to whether some players need to move on to the next level, or stay where they're at.  Sometimes, injuries and/or inconsistency at the top of the organization (that is, the major league team) can have a huge influence on this plan.

   This past weekend, it was almost dizzying to see how many roster moves were made as the Blue Jays had to overcome the placing of Jose Reyes on the 15-day Disabled List.  Jonathan Diaz was called up from Buffalo to take his place, which immediately left Buffalo a middle infielder short, so Kevin Nolan got the call in New Hampshire to come up and take his place.  Moving up from Dunedin to New Hampshire were Christian Lopes and Emilio Guerrero to provide some middle infield help.  Lopes was off to a slow start - he had a monster second half of the season in Australia this winter, until a hamstring injury ended his season and sent him home in time to heal for spring training.
  Another promotion to New Hampshire of note was that of  Tiago da Silva, the much traveled Brazilian reliever.
   Those moves all came on Friday.  On Saturday, with Scott Copeland recalled from Buffalo to make his MLB debut, Casey Lawrence was promoted from New Hampshire to the Bisons to take his place.  If Ryan Schimpf was moved up as well.  IF Dickie Joe Thon and P Justin Shafer were promoted from Lansing to Dunedin to shore up their roster.

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   Much has been made this weekend over the demotions of Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey, and Miguel Castro.  They would not be the first rookies to ever struggle and need further time in the minors - that's part of the reason teams get three option years on players new to the 40-man roster.
I thought it would be worth a quick look to see exactly why all three had their difficulties this month.

Norris
Daniel Norris had a solid spring training, and while the injury to Marcus Stroman threw a monkey wrench into the team's pitching staff plans, Norris may have made the team as the 5th starter despite Stroman tearing up his knee.
Norris complained of going through a dead arm stretch in the middle of the month, but overall his velocity held firm between 91 and 93:

Brooksbaseball.net graph

    His last start against the Indians, when he was lifted after throwing 78 pitches in 3 innings, shows that he really didn't trust his changeup or sinker, and almost half of the pitches he threw were fastballs, which hitters mashed at a .407 clip.  Accompanying the increase in fourseam usage was quite a bump in the use of his slider, which he has had more success with.  Norris recorded only 3 swinging strikes in the Cleveland game, none with his fastball or sinker.  

   Is something physically wrong with Norris?  An MRI performed on April 21 revealed no structural damage to his elbow.  It is worth noting that Norris had bone chips removed from his left elbow after last season, and he was shut down for a month in 2013 as a precaution.  He also admits to having gone through a dead arm phase last season (he did get dinged in a couple of early July starts at AA), and the stress of spring training may have worn him out a bit:

“My workload in spring training was — I was working really hard, trying to make this team and maybe that’s catching up to me a little bit right now, but I think I’m on the tail end of it. I’m feeling better,” 

  Whatever the case is, Norris is not the dominant pitcher who raced through four levels last year. Time in Buffalo may be necessary for him to re-discover himself in a less pressure-filled environment.  He makes his first start for the Bisons on Wednesday.

Pompey

   The GTA product struggled on both sides of the ball this month.  His difficulties at the plate weren't all that surprising, but his troubles in the field were.  He misjudged some fly balls, and took curious routes on others.  The former Minor League gold glove winner was supposed to be more dependable than that.  That, coupled with his .193/.264/.337 line caused the Blue Jays to send him to Buffalo for some time to re-group.

  Quite simply, Pompey is way better than what he has shown.  He may have been pressing too much, especially during the 10 game home stand, when he likely was inundated with interview and ticket requests, and didn't have enough time to prepare and focus on baseball.
  Again, injuries may have forced the issue here.  Michael Saunders knee surgery meant a temporary halt to what likely would have been a platoon between Pompey and Kevin Pillar.  Instead, Pompey was thrown into the deep end, and when he lost his centerfield spot to Pillar, he no doubt took his fielding woes to the plate, and vice-versa.

  Pompey will be back.  

Castro

   His inclusion on the Jays roster was perhaps the biggest surprise of all coming out of spring training.  Castro simply made it impossible for the Blue Jays to send him down, and given that hey showed a distaste for crop of available free agent relievers, that may have been their hope all along.

His performance over his last ten outings has been spotty:

DATE     OPP                            W            L              ERA        SV           IP            H             ER           BB           SO

04/12/2015         @BAL    0              0              0.00        1              1.0          1              0              1              0

04/14/2015         TB           0              1              0.00        0              1.1          2              0              1              2

04/17/2015         ATL         0              0              0.00        0              1.0          0              0              1              0

04/18/2015         ATL         0              0              1.23        0              1.0          2              1              0              1

04/22/2015         BAL        0              0              1.04        1              1.1          1              0              1              1

04/23/2015         BAL        0              0              1.93        1              0.2          1              1              0              1

04/25/2015         @TB       0              0              2.79        0              0.1          2              1              0              0

04/27/2015         @BOS   0               1               3.60        0              0.1          3              1              0              1

05/01/2015         @CLE     0              0              3.27        0              1.0          1              0              0              2

05/03/2015         @CLE     0              0              4.38        0              1.1          2              2              2              2

TOTALS                                  0              2              5.79        3              9.1          15           6              6              10

 I  had originally thought that Castro's troubles might have resulted from wearing down as a result of overuse in high leverage situations, but his velocity has been fairly consistent:

                                             Game                           Fourseam     Sinker   Change Slider

TOR@NYA (4/6/15)         97.50     97.94     86.31     82.20

TOR@NYA (4/8/15)         97.08     0.00        89.32     0.00

TOR@NYA (4/9/15)         97.18     0.00        91.21     83.79

TOR@BAL (4/12/15)        97.19     0.00        88.87     82.37

TBA@TOR (4/14/15)       98.08     0.00        0.00        83.66

ATL@TOR (4/17/15)        98.73     0.00        89.92     82.58

ATL@TOR (4/18/15)        97.11     97.45     87.56     83.84

BAL@TOR (4/22/15)        97.40     0.00        86.16     84.81

BAL@TOR (4/23/15)        96.01     0.00        0.00        81.97

TOR@TBA (4/25/15)       95.63     0.00        84.96     81.02

TOR@BOS (4/27/15)       96.89     96.84     88.16     82.12

TOR@CLE (5/1/15)           96.95     96.50     89.37     81.75

TOR@CLE (5/3/15)           96.45     97.00     89.10     83.28

   His fastball velo is down a bit from that peak against Atlanta, Quite simply, he's caught too much of the plate at times:

And when he's done so, it's most often been with his fastball or sinker.  Hitters have been laying off of his change and slider, forcing him to come with the heat - and hitters have been ready.

  The concern all along for Castro has been his lack of secondary pitches.  However, Aaron Sanchez came in and was lights out throwing primarily the fourseam/sinker combination last year.  Castro needs to work on his command in Buffalo.  Just as I was about to hit the 'publish' button, GM Alex Anthopoulos said that Castro will pitch out of the Bisons' starting rotation.  Which makes me wonder if we will see him again this season.  

  And you have to feel happy for Steve Delabar, who joins Chad Jenkins as they pass Castro and Copeland headed the opposite way on the QEW.  Delabar was very upset that he didn't make the club coming out of spring training.  Delabar seemed to have most of his old velo back, but I suspect a rough outing late in March against the Orioles, and the fact that he had options (and Liam Hendriks and Todd Redmond didn't) remaining sealed his fate.

  Bisons Manager Gary Allenson used Delabar very sparingly in the early going, giving him several days off between outings, and not using him in high leverage situations.  As April turned into May, Allenson began going to Delabar more often, and later in games.  He's appeared in 6 games since April 22nd, and five of those have been scoreless outings.  

   There's no real secret to Delabar's struggles in 2014, after an All Star year in 2013.  By his own admission, Delabar relies on velocity, and not movement, to get hitters out.  His fastball lost a tick last year, as did his ability to command it, and hitters were waiting for him.  If he's back to a more reasonable facsimile of his 2013 self, as opposed to last year's version, he should be a stabilizing force in the Blue Jays pen.  Of course, with options remaining, he could be in Toronto only until Castro turns himself around. 

   Jenkins should probably get ready to ride that QEW shuffle some more.  Until the rotation straightens itself out, the Blue Jays appear to be relying on whichever starter is up next for Buffalo to help in long relief.

 I can't let an opportunity pass without a final word about LHP Ricky Romero, released by the club last week.  Romero was the darling of Toronto in 2011, anointed the staff ace, and given a huge multi-year contract.  With the Blue Jays on the hook for 2016 for a $7.5 million salary, they exercised a $600 000 buyout to get out from under that deal.  They also did it early enough in the season to give him a chance to catch on with another team.

  Romero's troubles started in 2012, when hitters started to lay off of his change up, a pitch with so much movement that it often fell right out of the strike zone.  Injuries caused a drop in velocity, meaning that Romero often had to come in with a sub-par fastball in hitters' counts.  

  He struggled through a pair of seasons after that in which he simply wasn't healthy.  Surgically repaired and ready to go this spring, I had no reports about him, but that the club kept him behind in extended after training camp broke tells you much of what you need to know.  He wasn't ready to return to competition, and the Blue Jays obviously felt his MLB days were behind him.

  Several people on Twitter complained that the Blue Jays wrecked Romero, but that's far from accurate.  Their handling of him in 2013, when they kept him behind in Florida for all of one FSL start after spring training before rushing him up for a start that he clearly wasn't prepared for was puzzling, but the organization has been patient with him.  Hitters adjusted to Romero, and either because of health or an inability to make corresponding adjustments himself, Romero was no longer an effective starting pitcher by the end of 2012.   

     ************************************************************************

In summary, many eyebrows were raised when the Blue Jays broke camp with 6 rookies.  Some of that number was by design, some by accident, but the bottom line is that the Blue Jays felt that half dozen was a better option than the alternative.  And while Castro, Norris, and Pompey needed to be farmed out, the contributions from Devon Travis, Roberto Osuna, and even Aaron Sanchez, in that order, have been significant.  To me, this is just an extension of the roll the dice strategy the team has used in drafting players:  the upside of this group is such that given the injuries to Stroman and Saunders, the club felt that it was a worthwhile risk.  Did they expect that all six of them would instantly adjust?  Probably not.  If such was the case, the demoted trio would likely still be with the team.  The season is still young enough that it's not lost, and if these three can get themselves back together, they could still make a contribution to the team before the season is over.

A Look at Chase De Jong

      

The Toronto Blue Jays have become well known for drafting and developing a certain type of pitcher since Alex Anthopoulos took over as GM in 2009, and overhauled the scouting department:  tall, lean, and athletic.

  The Blue Jays are not married to that concept, and as Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna (although he's radically transformed his body since Tommy John surgery) have proven, they can scout outside of that box, but for every Stroman, there's an Aaron Sanchez and a Miguel Castro, and for every Osuna there's a Jeff Hoffman, Matt Smoral, and a Sean Reid-Foley.
    The reasoning for scouring the hemisphere for this type of pitcher is understandable.  The length allows them to develop a downward plane of their fastballs, which causes the hitter to have to change his focus during the ball's flight to home plate, creating a greater margin of error for a swing and miss, or weak contact.  Tall pitchers (like Castro and Sanchez, especially) can create a bit of an optical illusion because of their extension that hitters call "late life"; hitters have a fraction of a second less to track Castro's fastball, so it appears to "jump" on them because the ball is on them sooner than they realize.
   The lean body type allows the pitcher to have a lower-maintenance physique, which is less prone to injury, and more able to handle the wear and tear of a heavy workload.  One of the few negative things scouts had to say about Osuna was his formerly chunky build.  Medical science is still learning about the factors that precipitate torn ulnar collateral ligaments, but surely an untuned body has to be one.  A heavier pitcher may not necessarily have the musculature to support that weight during the course of repeating a pitching motion thousands of times during a season.
   The athleticism allows the pitcher to repeat his delivery consistently, and maintain a consistent arm slot for their deliveries, while maintaining a bit of deception for the hitters.  At times, a prospect like Daniel Norris comes into the organization with mechanics that are not optimal, but their athletic ability allows them to learn a new way to throw the ball, as well as the confidence to see them through the inevitable setbacks they will encounter as a result.  Athleticism also allows the pitcher to land in a good position to field any balls that come their way.

    I had the opportunity, thanks to milb.tv, to watch Chase De Jong's start this week against Great Lakes.  De Jong, taken in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft, fits the bill for this prototypical Toronto type of pitcher, at 6'4", 205.  Even though he's repeating the Midwest League, there's a great deal to be enthused about, given this start, and the one he threw the week before.  Here's a scouting report from prior to his draft year:

A USC commit, DeJong sits in the high 80s, topping out in low 90s. With a lot of projection left in there, Dejong looks to throw much harder as he fills out his tall, lean frame. He already possesses a hard curve with bite and feel for a changeup and he looks to be a smart pitcher who pounds the strike zone. He works downhill well, getting over his front side, and has an easy arm, remaining very balanced throughout. While not an exceptional talent at the moment, DeJong is the kind of high school arm that could be a completely different pitcher in two years thanks to more physical development and experience in the minors. He isn't the flashiest high school prospect, but has some of the higher upside in the class and shows a good balance of present skills and projectability.  He has the potential to be a solid starter, with the potential for three above average to plus pitches.

   The Blue Jays rolled the dice with De Jong, as they have with so many other picks in the Anthopoulos era.  Because of his USC pledge, De Jong was considered a tough sign - his father is a medical doctor, and his mother is a M. Ed. holder and a middle school guidance counsellor, and some teams obviously felt that education would come first, causing him to drop from a likely sandwich round pick to the 81st overall.  A $620 000 signing bonus offer helped to talk him out of his college commitment.
    De Jong made his pro debut in 2012, and after a pair of promising campaigns in rookie ball, skipped Vancouver and was sent to Lansing for full season ball last year.  And to put it mildly, he struggled.  After a rough April, De Jong seemed to be putting things together in May, but scuffled for much of the rest of the season before being shut down in early August.  Around the plate much of the time, De Jong gave up 113 hits in 97 innings, but walked only 22.
   Understandably, the Blue Jays wanted De Jong to repeat Lansing this season.  Since he barely tops 90 with his fastball and relies on his command, the organization has had him working on a two seamer to get some more movement on his fastball.  His first start of the season showcased the new pitch, as he struck out 9 Lake County hitters before leaving after reaching his pitch count with two out in the 5th on Lansing's Opening Day.
   The camera angle at Great Lakes provides an excellent view of the pitcher from center field, but isn't at a high enough angle to show movement.  De Jong, as is his custom, was around the plate for much of his five inning stint.  He had trouble commanding his curve at times, throwing it up in the zone.  His four seamer also tended to float a bit up in the strike zone, but he owned the bottom half with his two seamer, and while he wasn't as dominant as he was in his first start, De Jong still was impressive, allowing a run on three hits, while walking one and striking out five.
   De Jong has a smooth, easy delivery, and consistently repeats it.  He lands in a good fielding position.  Since he doesn't overpower, command and movement will be the keys to any hopes he has of advancing in the organization.  While velocity and missing a lot of bats advances prospects faster, Mark Buehrle proves that there's a lot to be said for changing speeds, command, and guile.

                                **********************************************

  I also got my first look at Catcher Danny Jansen, and while he's struggled with the bat like many of his young teammates have, I can understand the rave reviews he's earned for his skills behind the plate.
   A big target at 6'2", 210 lbs, Jansen is an effective framer of pitches already, and that skill will only improve as he learns his Lansing pitching staff better.  He is a good blocker of balls in the dirt, and is surprisingly agile for a kid his size.  Jansen gets out to field choppers, bunts, and slow rollers very well.  He handles pitchers well, and has been a contributor to De Jong's success, catching both of his starts so far. Jansen has yet to record his first MWL hit after 18 PA's, but he has hit everywhere he's played, so that may only be a matter of time.  And four walks are included in that total, so he's showing some good strike zone judgement. Max Pentecost may reach the majors before Jansen, but there's a lot to like with this just-turned 20 year old.

Two Prospects, Two Different Paths of Development #4

Perfect Game photo

   I've written three previous articles since the spring of 2013 looking at the progress of a pair of pitching prospects selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2011 draft, righthander Tyler Beede, and lefthander Daniel Norris.

   Beede, a product of Auburn, Massachusetts, was selected with the 21st overall pick by the Blue Jays.  He had written major league teams that spring to let them know his intention was to attend Vanderbilt University, and likely would have gone higher in the draft had he not done so. Whether or not that was a bargaining ploy or a legitimate desire to play college ball remains unknown, but what is known is that Beede and the Blue Jays were reportedly a million dollars apart in their negotations, the Blue Jays reportedly offering $2.4 million.  Contract talks went right down to the wire on the then-August 15th deadline, but Beede spurned Toronto's final offer, and prepared to head off to start his collegiate career.
    Norris, from Johnson City, Tennessee, was, like Beede, one of the top ranked prep pitchers in the draft.  He fell to the second round because many teams were wary of his commitment to Clemson. The Blue Jays chose Norris with the 74th pick, and his negotiations went down to the wire as well, but he ultimately signed fifteen minutes from the deadline (likely with some savings realized by Beede's refusal), and signed for a $2 million bonus.

   Because he signed so late in the season, Norris' pro debut was put off until 2012.  Beede, meanwhile, headed off to Vandy, and made his college debut in February. There was little comparing of the two after their respective first seasons.  Beede pitched in 16 games for the Commodores, starting 11.  He was rocked in his start and spent some time in the bullpen, but righted himself as the season progressed, Beede pitched well in post season competition, and was named to the All-Tournament team at the Regional level.
   Norris, on the other hand, reported for spring training, and was kept behind with all of the other first year players after camp broke in April.  There had always been concerns about Norris' long and sweeping delivery and his curve ball, and the Blue Jays worked on both over the course of the spring. Sent to short-season Bluefield to begin his pro career that June, Norris understandably struggled, and was hit hard there and after a promotion to Vancouver.  Developmentally, Beede was ahead of Norris at the time, but it was easy to understand why.  The Blue Jays had a significant investment in Norris, and it was in their best interests to make whatever corrections to his approach that they needed. That's not to say that Vandy didn't make similar adjustments with Beede; they likely weren't as significant.

   Fast forward to the spring of 2013, and the developmental gap between the two was widening. Beede was on his way to Second Team All America status as a sophomore by several publications, while in the midst of a rough April with full season Lansing, Baseball America made this observation about Norris:

 The 19-year-old still has plenty of time to turn things around, but it’s hard to explain how a lefty who can touch 96 mph and pairs it with a breaking ball that shows flashes of being a plus pitch can get squared up outing after outing. Norris saw his career ERA jump to 8.87 after giving up 13 baserunners in only four innings over the past week. Even more inexplicably, lefties have posted a 2.300 OPS against Norris in five at-bats.

   As the summer approached, Norris was refining his command.  For Beede, who was named to Team USA, it was the opposite, as he fought his control.  Norris rode a fine second half of the season to remain near the top of most Blue Jays top prospect lists, while Beede, despite his command issues, was shaping up to be a possible top 5 draft pick after his junior year ended the following June.

   From there, many people know the story.  The pair seemed to be heading in opposite directions last year, Norris rising through three levels to get finish the year in the Majors, while Beede's stock slipped, and he was taken 14th overall - ahead of where the Blue Jays selected him, but below where the early predictions had him going.  Selected by the Giants, Beede signed for $2.6 million - more than what the Blue Jays had offered, but about $1.2 million below what the 5th overall pick, Florida HS shortstop Nick Gordon, signed for.  Beede's struggles continued in playoff play, and he didn't get the ball to start Vandy's successful College World Series run.
   While Norris was rocketing through the minors, Beede reported to the Giants minor league complex in Arizona to start his pro career.  The Giants immediately began to change Beede from a control-challenged power to a more efficient, groundball-inducing type of pitcher.  In order to make that transition, they swapped his four seamer early in the count for a sinking two seamer, and a cutter. The change appeared to work as Beede dominated hitters in the Complex and Northwest Leagues.
    And that brings us to the present day, where Norris and his van rode a lights out spring to the 5th starters' job in the Blue Jay rotation, and a start this week against the Yankees.  Beede, meanwhile, has shipped out to full season team in the California League.  Clearly, Norris is ahead of Beede on the curve at the moment.  No one could have predicted Norris' meteoric rise last year, of course, which may have reflected a change in organizational philosophy as much as it did his performance. And while Beede may be behind Norris at the moment, his first pro year went much more smoothly than Norris' did.  Both faced an overhaul of their pitching approaches, but Beede at 21 was obviously more mature and able to handle the change than the at-the-time recent high school grad Norris was.
Norris is clearly ahead financially, even though he ultimately signed for a lesser bonus.  By graduating to the bigs last September, his service time clock has started.  As well has he has pitched so far over his small sample size of a pro career, it's hard to expect Beede to duplicate those results and be in the Giants rotation a year from now.

   Beede has been relatively injury-free during his college career - despite Vandy's success, his innings were carefully monitored.  Norris was on a strict pitch count after turning pro, but was still shut down for a month in 2013 with elbow soreness, and had bone chips removed after last season.  If there's one red flag that gnaws away at the back of my mind about Norris, that's it.

   How did this draft effect the Blue Jays?  There were rumours that they were concerned about medical reports about Beede, and wouldn't budge much from their initial offer, but we'll never likely know the full story.  When Beede turned them down, Toronto turned their attention to Norris, and it's hard to argue with that strategy.  And as compensation, they were able to draft Marcus Stroman the following year, so again, things worked out for them.

   Who has the higher ceiling?   That's still hard to say, but the consensus would probably be Norris right now.  Just as we the comparison between Norris and Beede wasn't valid during Norris' first pro season and a bit, it's probably still not fair now.  Beede's performance this year will go a long way toward determining that.