Clutchlings Notebook - Week#4: Moving Day

  In the best case scenario, MLB farm departments like to give players at least two months of play to start the season at a level before they make a decision as to whether some players need to move on to the next level, or stay where they're at.  Sometimes, injuries and/or inconsistency at the top of the organization (that is, the major league team) can have a huge influence on this plan.

   This past weekend, it was almost dizzying to see how many roster moves were made as the Blue Jays had to overcome the placing of Jose Reyes on the 15-day Disabled List.  Jonathan Diaz was called up from Buffalo to take his place, which immediately left Buffalo a middle infielder short, so Kevin Nolan got the call in New Hampshire to come up and take his place.  Moving up from Dunedin to New Hampshire were Christian Lopes and Emilio Guerrero to provide some middle infield help.  Lopes was off to a slow start - he had a monster second half of the season in Australia this winter, until a hamstring injury ended his season and sent him home in time to heal for spring training.
  Another promotion to New Hampshire of note was that of  Tiago da Silva, the much traveled Brazilian reliever.
   Those moves all came on Friday.  On Saturday, with Scott Copeland recalled from Buffalo to make his MLB debut, Casey Lawrence was promoted from New Hampshire to the Bisons to take his place.  If Ryan Schimpf was moved up as well.  IF Dickie Joe Thon and P Justin Shafer were promoted from Lansing to Dunedin to shore up their roster.

     ************************************************************************

   Much has been made this weekend over the demotions of Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey, and Miguel Castro.  They would not be the first rookies to ever struggle and need further time in the minors - that's part of the reason teams get three option years on players new to the 40-man roster.
I thought it would be worth a quick look to see exactly why all three had their difficulties this month.

Norris
Daniel Norris had a solid spring training, and while the injury to Marcus Stroman threw a monkey wrench into the team's pitching staff plans, Norris may have made the team as the 5th starter despite Stroman tearing up his knee.
Norris complained of going through a dead arm stretch in the middle of the month, but overall his velocity held firm between 91 and 93:

Brooksbaseball.net graph

    His last start against the Indians, when he was lifted after throwing 78 pitches in 3 innings, shows that he really didn't trust his changeup or sinker, and almost half of the pitches he threw were fastballs, which hitters mashed at a .407 clip.  Accompanying the increase in fourseam usage was quite a bump in the use of his slider, which he has had more success with.  Norris recorded only 3 swinging strikes in the Cleveland game, none with his fastball or sinker.  

   Is something physically wrong with Norris?  An MRI performed on April 21 revealed no structural damage to his elbow.  It is worth noting that Norris had bone chips removed from his left elbow after last season, and he was shut down for a month in 2013 as a precaution.  He also admits to having gone through a dead arm phase last season (he did get dinged in a couple of early July starts at AA), and the stress of spring training may have worn him out a bit:

“My workload in spring training was — I was working really hard, trying to make this team and maybe that’s catching up to me a little bit right now, but I think I’m on the tail end of it. I’m feeling better,” 

  Whatever the case is, Norris is not the dominant pitcher who raced through four levels last year. Time in Buffalo may be necessary for him to re-discover himself in a less pressure-filled environment.  He makes his first start for the Bisons on Wednesday.

Pompey

   The GTA product struggled on both sides of the ball this month.  His difficulties at the plate weren't all that surprising, but his troubles in the field were.  He misjudged some fly balls, and took curious routes on others.  The former Minor League gold glove winner was supposed to be more dependable than that.  That, coupled with his .193/.264/.337 line caused the Blue Jays to send him to Buffalo for some time to re-group.

  Quite simply, Pompey is way better than what he has shown.  He may have been pressing too much, especially during the 10 game home stand, when he likely was inundated with interview and ticket requests, and didn't have enough time to prepare and focus on baseball.
  Again, injuries may have forced the issue here.  Michael Saunders knee surgery meant a temporary halt to what likely would have been a platoon between Pompey and Kevin Pillar.  Instead, Pompey was thrown into the deep end, and when he lost his centerfield spot to Pillar, he no doubt took his fielding woes to the plate, and vice-versa.

  Pompey will be back.  

Castro

   His inclusion on the Jays roster was perhaps the biggest surprise of all coming out of spring training.  Castro simply made it impossible for the Blue Jays to send him down, and given that hey showed a distaste for crop of available free agent relievers, that may have been their hope all along.

His performance over his last ten outings has been spotty:

DATE     OPP                            W            L              ERA        SV           IP            H             ER           BB           SO

04/12/2015         @BAL    0              0              0.00        1              1.0          1              0              1              0

04/14/2015         TB           0              1              0.00        0              1.1          2              0              1              2

04/17/2015         ATL         0              0              0.00        0              1.0          0              0              1              0

04/18/2015         ATL         0              0              1.23        0              1.0          2              1              0              1

04/22/2015         BAL        0              0              1.04        1              1.1          1              0              1              1

04/23/2015         BAL        0              0              1.93        1              0.2          1              1              0              1

04/25/2015         @TB       0              0              2.79        0              0.1          2              1              0              0

04/27/2015         @BOS   0               1               3.60        0              0.1          3              1              0              1

05/01/2015         @CLE     0              0              3.27        0              1.0          1              0              0              2

05/03/2015         @CLE     0              0              4.38        0              1.1          2              2              2              2

TOTALS                                  0              2              5.79        3              9.1          15           6              6              10

 I  had originally thought that Castro's troubles might have resulted from wearing down as a result of overuse in high leverage situations, but his velocity has been fairly consistent:

                                             Game                           Fourseam     Sinker   Change Slider

TOR@NYA (4/6/15)         97.50     97.94     86.31     82.20

TOR@NYA (4/8/15)         97.08     0.00        89.32     0.00

TOR@NYA (4/9/15)         97.18     0.00        91.21     83.79

TOR@BAL (4/12/15)        97.19     0.00        88.87     82.37

TBA@TOR (4/14/15)       98.08     0.00        0.00        83.66

ATL@TOR (4/17/15)        98.73     0.00        89.92     82.58

ATL@TOR (4/18/15)        97.11     97.45     87.56     83.84

BAL@TOR (4/22/15)        97.40     0.00        86.16     84.81

BAL@TOR (4/23/15)        96.01     0.00        0.00        81.97

TOR@TBA (4/25/15)       95.63     0.00        84.96     81.02

TOR@BOS (4/27/15)       96.89     96.84     88.16     82.12

TOR@CLE (5/1/15)           96.95     96.50     89.37     81.75

TOR@CLE (5/3/15)           96.45     97.00     89.10     83.28

   His fastball velo is down a bit from that peak against Atlanta, Quite simply, he's caught too much of the plate at times:

And when he's done so, it's most often been with his fastball or sinker.  Hitters have been laying off of his change and slider, forcing him to come with the heat - and hitters have been ready.

  The concern all along for Castro has been his lack of secondary pitches.  However, Aaron Sanchez came in and was lights out throwing primarily the fourseam/sinker combination last year.  Castro needs to work on his command in Buffalo.  Just as I was about to hit the 'publish' button, GM Alex Anthopoulos said that Castro will pitch out of the Bisons' starting rotation.  Which makes me wonder if we will see him again this season.  

  And you have to feel happy for Steve Delabar, who joins Chad Jenkins as they pass Castro and Copeland headed the opposite way on the QEW.  Delabar was very upset that he didn't make the club coming out of spring training.  Delabar seemed to have most of his old velo back, but I suspect a rough outing late in March against the Orioles, and the fact that he had options (and Liam Hendriks and Todd Redmond didn't) remaining sealed his fate.

  Bisons Manager Gary Allenson used Delabar very sparingly in the early going, giving him several days off between outings, and not using him in high leverage situations.  As April turned into May, Allenson began going to Delabar more often, and later in games.  He's appeared in 6 games since April 22nd, and five of those have been scoreless outings.  

   There's no real secret to Delabar's struggles in 2014, after an All Star year in 2013.  By his own admission, Delabar relies on velocity, and not movement, to get hitters out.  His fastball lost a tick last year, as did his ability to command it, and hitters were waiting for him.  If he's back to a more reasonable facsimile of his 2013 self, as opposed to last year's version, he should be a stabilizing force in the Blue Jays pen.  Of course, with options remaining, he could be in Toronto only until Castro turns himself around. 

   Jenkins should probably get ready to ride that QEW shuffle some more.  Until the rotation straightens itself out, the Blue Jays appear to be relying on whichever starter is up next for Buffalo to help in long relief.

 I can't let an opportunity pass without a final word about LHP Ricky Romero, released by the club last week.  Romero was the darling of Toronto in 2011, anointed the staff ace, and given a huge multi-year contract.  With the Blue Jays on the hook for 2016 for a $7.5 million salary, they exercised a $600 000 buyout to get out from under that deal.  They also did it early enough in the season to give him a chance to catch on with another team.

  Romero's troubles started in 2012, when hitters started to lay off of his change up, a pitch with so much movement that it often fell right out of the strike zone.  Injuries caused a drop in velocity, meaning that Romero often had to come in with a sub-par fastball in hitters' counts.  

  He struggled through a pair of seasons after that in which he simply wasn't healthy.  Surgically repaired and ready to go this spring, I had no reports about him, but that the club kept him behind in extended after training camp broke tells you much of what you need to know.  He wasn't ready to return to competition, and the Blue Jays obviously felt his MLB days were behind him.

  Several people on Twitter complained that the Blue Jays wrecked Romero, but that's far from accurate.  Their handling of him in 2013, when they kept him behind in Florida for all of one FSL start after spring training before rushing him up for a start that he clearly wasn't prepared for was puzzling, but the organization has been patient with him.  Hitters adjusted to Romero, and either because of health or an inability to make corresponding adjustments himself, Romero was no longer an effective starting pitcher by the end of 2012.   

     ************************************************************************

In summary, many eyebrows were raised when the Blue Jays broke camp with 6 rookies.  Some of that number was by design, some by accident, but the bottom line is that the Blue Jays felt that half dozen was a better option than the alternative.  And while Castro, Norris, and Pompey needed to be farmed out, the contributions from Devon Travis, Roberto Osuna, and even Aaron Sanchez, in that order, have been significant.  To me, this is just an extension of the roll the dice strategy the team has used in drafting players:  the upside of this group is such that given the injuries to Stroman and Saunders, the club felt that it was a worthwhile risk.  Did they expect that all six of them would instantly adjust?  Probably not.  If such was the case, the demoted trio would likely still be with the team.  The season is still young enough that it's not lost, and if these three can get themselves back together, they could still make a contribution to the team before the season is over.

A Look at Chase De Jong

      

The Toronto Blue Jays have become well known for drafting and developing a certain type of pitcher since Alex Anthopoulos took over as GM in 2009, and overhauled the scouting department:  tall, lean, and athletic.

  The Blue Jays are not married to that concept, and as Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna (although he's radically transformed his body since Tommy John surgery) have proven, they can scout outside of that box, but for every Stroman, there's an Aaron Sanchez and a Miguel Castro, and for every Osuna there's a Jeff Hoffman, Matt Smoral, and a Sean Reid-Foley.
    The reasoning for scouring the hemisphere for this type of pitcher is understandable.  The length allows them to develop a downward plane of their fastballs, which causes the hitter to have to change his focus during the ball's flight to home plate, creating a greater margin of error for a swing and miss, or weak contact.  Tall pitchers (like Castro and Sanchez, especially) can create a bit of an optical illusion because of their extension that hitters call "late life"; hitters have a fraction of a second less to track Castro's fastball, so it appears to "jump" on them because the ball is on them sooner than they realize.
   The lean body type allows the pitcher to have a lower-maintenance physique, which is less prone to injury, and more able to handle the wear and tear of a heavy workload.  One of the few negative things scouts had to say about Osuna was his formerly chunky build.  Medical science is still learning about the factors that precipitate torn ulnar collateral ligaments, but surely an untuned body has to be one.  A heavier pitcher may not necessarily have the musculature to support that weight during the course of repeating a pitching motion thousands of times during a season.
   The athleticism allows the pitcher to repeat his delivery consistently, and maintain a consistent arm slot for their deliveries, while maintaining a bit of deception for the hitters.  At times, a prospect like Daniel Norris comes into the organization with mechanics that are not optimal, but their athletic ability allows them to learn a new way to throw the ball, as well as the confidence to see them through the inevitable setbacks they will encounter as a result.  Athleticism also allows the pitcher to land in a good position to field any balls that come their way.

    I had the opportunity, thanks to milb.tv, to watch Chase De Jong's start this week against Great Lakes.  De Jong, taken in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft, fits the bill for this prototypical Toronto type of pitcher, at 6'4", 205.  Even though he's repeating the Midwest League, there's a great deal to be enthused about, given this start, and the one he threw the week before.  Here's a scouting report from prior to his draft year:

A USC commit, DeJong sits in the high 80s, topping out in low 90s. With a lot of projection left in there, Dejong looks to throw much harder as he fills out his tall, lean frame. He already possesses a hard curve with bite and feel for a changeup and he looks to be a smart pitcher who pounds the strike zone. He works downhill well, getting over his front side, and has an easy arm, remaining very balanced throughout. While not an exceptional talent at the moment, DeJong is the kind of high school arm that could be a completely different pitcher in two years thanks to more physical development and experience in the minors. He isn't the flashiest high school prospect, but has some of the higher upside in the class and shows a good balance of present skills and projectability.  He has the potential to be a solid starter, with the potential for three above average to plus pitches.

   The Blue Jays rolled the dice with De Jong, as they have with so many other picks in the Anthopoulos era.  Because of his USC pledge, De Jong was considered a tough sign - his father is a medical doctor, and his mother is a M. Ed. holder and a middle school guidance counsellor, and some teams obviously felt that education would come first, causing him to drop from a likely sandwich round pick to the 81st overall.  A $620 000 signing bonus offer helped to talk him out of his college commitment.
    De Jong made his pro debut in 2012, and after a pair of promising campaigns in rookie ball, skipped Vancouver and was sent to Lansing for full season ball last year.  And to put it mildly, he struggled.  After a rough April, De Jong seemed to be putting things together in May, but scuffled for much of the rest of the season before being shut down in early August.  Around the plate much of the time, De Jong gave up 113 hits in 97 innings, but walked only 22.
   Understandably, the Blue Jays wanted De Jong to repeat Lansing this season.  Since he barely tops 90 with his fastball and relies on his command, the organization has had him working on a two seamer to get some more movement on his fastball.  His first start of the season showcased the new pitch, as he struck out 9 Lake County hitters before leaving after reaching his pitch count with two out in the 5th on Lansing's Opening Day.
   The camera angle at Great Lakes provides an excellent view of the pitcher from center field, but isn't at a high enough angle to show movement.  De Jong, as is his custom, was around the plate for much of his five inning stint.  He had trouble commanding his curve at times, throwing it up in the zone.  His four seamer also tended to float a bit up in the strike zone, but he owned the bottom half with his two seamer, and while he wasn't as dominant as he was in his first start, De Jong still was impressive, allowing a run on three hits, while walking one and striking out five.
   De Jong has a smooth, easy delivery, and consistently repeats it.  He lands in a good fielding position.  Since he doesn't overpower, command and movement will be the keys to any hopes he has of advancing in the organization.  While velocity and missing a lot of bats advances prospects faster, Mark Buehrle proves that there's a lot to be said for changing speeds, command, and guile.

                                **********************************************

  I also got my first look at Catcher Danny Jansen, and while he's struggled with the bat like many of his young teammates have, I can understand the rave reviews he's earned for his skills behind the plate.
   A big target at 6'2", 210 lbs, Jansen is an effective framer of pitches already, and that skill will only improve as he learns his Lansing pitching staff better.  He is a good blocker of balls in the dirt, and is surprisingly agile for a kid his size.  Jansen gets out to field choppers, bunts, and slow rollers very well.  He handles pitchers well, and has been a contributor to De Jong's success, catching both of his starts so far. Jansen has yet to record his first MWL hit after 18 PA's, but he has hit everywhere he's played, so that may only be a matter of time.  And four walks are included in that total, so he's showing some good strike zone judgement. Max Pentecost may reach the majors before Jansen, but there's a lot to like with this just-turned 20 year old.

Spring Training Prospect Update #3

   The trickle of news coming out of spring training is turning into an April torrent.
With the Blue Jays making what's becoming their annual end-of-spring-training trip to Montreal for a pair of final exhibition games, the season opener is fast approaching.  We should know what the full season minor league rosters should look like by the end of the weekend.

Here's what's in the news:

2014 first round pick Jeff Hoffman has been making steady progress in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and threw in his first spring training game yesterday.  I think it went ok:

On his road back from TJ surgery, #BlueJays prospect Jeff Hoffman threw a 1-2-3 inning today in ST and worked at 95-98 mph. Wow
— Frankie Piliere (@FPiliereD1) April 1, 2015

   Before we get too excited, Hoffman is still at least a month away from when-it-counts game action.  And if there's one thing we've learned about the recovery, it's that most players take closer to 18 months to fully recover their velocity and command, Roberto Osuna being a case in point.  Still, it was welcome news.

   If you don't follow our Left Coast friend Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey) on Twitter, you should.  Caskey follows the Vancouver Canadians, and blogs about them for the Vancouver Sun.  Charlie also likes his barley and hops beverages, and is a dedicated dad, so he's all right in my books.
   Caskey has a source who let him in on some developments with several Blue Jays minor leaguers, and he shared some of that information in a pair of posts today.  The first involves news about the possible makeup of Lansing's pitching staff this year.  It's always interesting to see who the club sends to Lansing, the lowest of the full season teams in the organization.  Some pitchers move up the ladder from the GCL to the Appy League to the NWL one step at a time before hitting full season play in the Midwest League, while others skip one or more of those rungs and are fast-tracked to Lansing.
   And the news about Lansing isn't good.  Ryan Borucki, who made a comeback from TJ last year and pitched well at Bluefield and Vancouver, has been shut down with a sore elbow.  Maybe it's just the regular spring soreness, but it takes on added urgency when a player is throwing with a replacement ligament.  Not to get ahead of ourselves, but the success rate for a second Tommy John is considerably less than that of the first. This could be precautionary, of course, but he likely will be staying in Florida next week.
  Fellow southpaw Matt Smoral followed the same route as Borucki last year, and word from Caskey is that he's not had the best of springs, and he may be on the bubble.  It could just be a hiccup, or it could be he needs time in Extended Spring Training.  The Blue Jays 2nd round pick in 2012 has been brought along very slowly, but made excellent progress last year.
   Finally, yet another lefty, Jairo Labourt, seems to be having an electric spring, and may find himself in Dunedin next week.  Labourt was challenged with an assignment to Lansing last year, but had trouble with his command, and was sent back to Extended.  Sent to Vancouver to join the C's for short season play, he was one of the NWL's top prospects, and restored much luster to his reputation.
  As well, we had learned earlier in the month that Alberto Tirado will remain in the bullpen this year, and if I had to guess, he'll start with Dunedin.  Tirado struggled with the cool Midwest weather last year, and while all Blue Jays prospects raised in warm weather climates have to deal with it eventually, if he's been pitching as well as we hear he has, High A will be the better placement for him.
   Last year's 2nd rounder, Sean Reid-Foley, appears to be poised to skip both Bluefield and Vancouver for Lansing.  He's definitely on the fast track.
   On the position player side, Caskey reports that Lansing's outfield may resemble a track team, with speedsters Roemon Fields, Anthony Alford, and DJ Davis possibly getting assignments there.
   Davis, the club's first round pick in 2012, was a disappointment last year at Lansing, but was one of the youngest players in the league, and is still learning the game.  I've written extensively about Alford, the two-sport star who suddenly gave up on college football last September to focus on baseball, and while he proved during his time in Australia this winter and with the big club earlier this month that he still is raw, his ceiling is quite high.  Then there's Fields, who two springs ago was out of baseball, and working for the US Postal Service. Here he is, hitting a routine stand-up triple against the Orioles:

   According to Caskey, a Florida-based scout puts Alford ahead of Davis in terms of development.  At the same time, Davis played some of his best baseball last summer in the brief time fellow Mississippian Alford was in the lineup.  Pairing them up at least to start the season could be beneficial for both, although it's hard to see Alford spending the whole season in Lansing.  Blue Jays fans may be just as excited about Alford next spring as they have been about Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro this spring.  As for Fields, there is talk that he could start at Lansing or Dunedin.  Veteran superscout Mel Didier said that he is the best defensive outfielder in the organization, major and minor leagues.

    Caskey also reports that Catchers AJ Jimenez and Derrick Chung are out with injuries - no word on the extent with the oft-injured Jimenez, and Chung's sounds like an oblique, which isn't serious, but can be if it's not treated properly.

   Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus had a few observations about Blue Jays prospects at Spring Training today.
   About Dwight Smith, who has been playing some second base this spring, he offers:

 ..an intriguing player last year in the FSL, but one likely to end up as a fourth outfielder thanks to his “tweener” profile (not enough power for a corner, not enough defense for center). Perhaps in an attempt to remedy that, he has added a rather extreme leg kick in his stance. It might cost him some contact, but if it moves his power up a tick on the scale it could be enough to make him an everyday player. Stay tuned.

    On Emilio Guerrero, who the Jays have been attempting to convert to an outfielder, Moore observed:

 The overall product doesn’t add up to the sum of the parts for Emilio Guerrero (Blue Jays), who continues to look the part but baffles scouts with below-average baseball IQ and poor execution at the plate. The frame, at 6-4 and thin, is ideal, and he handles it well enough to handle shortstop for the time being, but the lack of approach at the plate continues to hold him back.  

 

Speaking of Osuna and Castro, I won't be surprised to find one of them back in the minors before the end of April, and if I had to wager, it would be Osuna.  Both were almost unhittable earlier in the month, but now that rosters have been pared and hitters are getting their timing back, both have given up some contact and been touched for some runs in their last few outings.  Castro may be groomed to be a multiple innings guy, but Osuna needs to pitch, and if he has a few rocky outings, I could see him making his way back, probably to AA, where he should be stretched out as a starter again.

   Spring Training is a time of renewal, and for some players, it's a chance at redemption - another shot at the big time.  At the same time, we tend to forget that for every player who makes it to the majors, there are dozens who don't, and the end of March for some can be the-writing-on-the-wall time.  Such was the case for righthander Ben White, who announced his retirement on Twitter:

Thanks everyone who supported me the past 4 years. Today I retired from the Toronto Blue Jays & the game of baseball. pic.twitter.com/T8w80vyXp6
— Ben White (@Bennyhana42) April 1, 2015

   White hails from Parksburg, PA, about an hour outside of Philadelphia, and played college ball at Temple.  White signed with the Blue Jays as an undrafted free agent following his senior year in 2011, and had advanced from Vancouver to New Hampshire, where he started a pair of games last year.  White has been a solid, if unspectacular performer for the team, pitching to contact.  If I had to speculate, there may not have been room for him in New Hampshire's rotation this year, with John Anderson converted to starting, and Taylor Cole, Matt Boyd, Casey Lawrence, and Jayson Aquino (acquired before spring training for reliever Tyler Ybarra) ahead of him, White may have felt at 26 that it was time to move on with this life.  He exited from the game in a classy manner.


One last note:
  Caskey and I compared notes about pitchers in minor league camp who have impressed, and we had one in common:  lefty Matt Boyd, who Caskey's source said has been "throwing fuel" this month.
  Boyd is another player I've written a fair amount about, and have gotten to know a little bit through our interactions on Twitter.  There's no cheering in the press box, but since I'm not a beat writer (or a journalist, really, although I try to produce quality content), I can pull a bit for this guy, who was matching Daniel Norris and Kendall Graveman strike for strike last spring, until foot and elbow (bone chips) issues limited his effectiveness.

    I write a regular Monday notebook, the first issue of which should be out early next week (maybe even Monday) - I'm holding out for the announcement of those minor league rosters.

Spring Training Prospect Update #2

    One of the great ironies of spring training is that while fans who can't make the journey to Florida or Arizona can still keep close tabs on their teams thanks to the plethora of reporters and media outlets, it's hard to find out what's going on in Minor League camp unless you have some sources on the "inside," - or at least something close to it.

   Nonetheless, there still is some news coming out of Minor League camp.
Today, we learned that Anthony Alford and Jack Murphy had been reassigned from the big club's camp, joining Dwight Smith, Jr, and Mitch Nay, who had been sent down earlier.

Through the magic of live streaming, I was able to watch Alford's debut against the Orioles:

@Clutchlings77 I totally agree
— Anthony Alford (@ajalfor1) March 6, 2015

  Speaking of Alford, there was a good article about him on ESPN.com.  While it didn't provide much that we didn't already know, there were some good insights into Alford's reaction to having to go to Ole Miss Head Coach Hugh Frazee to tell him he was giving up football for baseball.  And we hadn't thought about the Bo Jackson comparison the article made, but it kind of makes sense.  He was overmatched at times against the higher level pitching he faced this spring, but he wasn't sent to big league camp to earn a job, but to soak up the atmosphere, and learn from major leaguers like Jose Bautista.  Those of us diehard fans who stayed tuned to the Blue Jays games earlier this month after the regulars had been removed from the lineup got a glimpse of his athleticism and speed.  When asked about who impressed him the most at major league camp, he replied without hesitation, "Bautista and Donaldson."

Some other news and tidbits:

-Matt Boyd tested out his surgically cleaned-out elbow earlier this week, and pronounced it fully healed.
-Clinton Hollon, who had Tommy John surgery a month ago, was throwing well in bullpen sessions, and is scheduled to return to competition in late April or early May.  The 2013 2nd rounder hit 95 with his fastball prior to the surgery. If you're looking for a sleeper breakout candidate this year, he may be the one.
-Canadian Justin Atkinson is being converted to catcher.  The 2011 26th rounder hit well in Lansing last year, and it will be interesting to see where he's assigned to start the year.
-Lane Thomas, a steal of a 5th round pick last year who opened a lot of eyes, has been taking reps at second base so far in minor league camp.
-the Buffalo Bisons began minor league spring training today, and have a slate of games against Dunedin/Clearwater teams.
-via Chis King of Baseball Prospectus (@StatsKing on Twitter), who watched the Blue Jays minor leaguers play against Puerto Rico yesterday, we had good reports on Catcher Matt Morgan's footwork, and Sean Reid-Foley's nasty slider.  Angel Perdomo started the game for the Blue Jays, and was squared up a bit in the first, but straightened things out in the second.
-there are some nice prospect profiles (mostly Blue Jays) coming out of Dunedin, via the Toronto Observer, by students at Toronto's Centennial College J-School that make for good reading.  The trip to spring training is part of the course of study for their fast-track journalism program - many Ontario colleges now offer similar courses. The program is open to college or university grads.


   By now, you all are familiar with the lights-out springs Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna have had.  Neither has been scored upon yet, and both were featured in the Blue Jays win over the Yankees on Tuesday night. Castro was all but unhittable, retiring 8 straight Yankees in his outing, while Osuna was hit hard on a couple of occasions, but escaped a pair of threats unscathed.  Castro has shown a vastly improved change up, which would be a devastating weapon paired with his electric fastball - in relief.
  I've made my feelings known about both.  Castro is only 20, pitched 80 innings last year, and has thrown all of 8 innings above Low A.  Osuna is the same age, is 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and has thrown 23 innings at High A.  Both would benefit from more time in the minors, in order to build up arm strength and develop their secondary pitches.  Castro, in particular, has pitched even better than he did last year, but the second half of spring training is where it counts, as teams pare down their rosters, and hitters begin to get their timing down.
  I would prefer both return to the minors, starting at Dunedin until the weather warms up, and then on to New Hampshire, and who knows?  Castro would be pitching in almost exclusively high leverage situations if he pitched out of the Blue Jays bullpen, and Osuna still needs to be treated with care - he's almost out of the woods, but not quite.  Just look at Kyle Drabek, who is in a life and death struggle to make this team, almost three years after this second Tommy John.  And for those who have forgotten, Drabek was the Blue Jays top prospect two years running prior to 2012.  They paid a heavy price in acquiring him, and they paid a similarly high one in the form of the $1.5 million signing bonus they gave Osuna.
  But I'm not facing an expiring contract, and the spectre of a new boss, and the longest playoff drought in baseball like Alex Anthopoulos is.  Castro is looking more and more like the one who will stick - most of the hitters Osuna faced won't likely be playing in the majors next month.  If they do take Castro north with them, the Blue Jays will have to treat his young arm very carefully.  And is that worth the risk?  We all know the importance of the bullpen, but the top-ranked bullpen in the game last year was beaten by the 28th-ranked team.  And the teams with the 24th, 26th, and 27th ranked bullpens made it to the playoffs as well.  The top 10 bullpens produced the same number of playoff teams.  The reason for this, of course, is simple: there are other aspects, like a strong starting rotation, or a run-producing offence, that are just as important - if not moreso - than a bullpen.  Will Castro make that much of a difference?  Would we rather not have him pitch about 140 innings as a starter next year, as opposed to maybe 80-90 as a reliever this year?  The top-ranked reliever, in terms of WAR (Baseball-Reference's model) ranked 28th overall among MLB pitchers last year, and there was a grand total of 5 relief pitchers in the top 50.
   Only the Blue Jays brain trust knows for sure.

Spring Training Prospect Update #1

   Major League training camps are already under way, but most minor league camps don't open until next week, far from the media microscope, but some news is slowly making its way north to help thaw out us frozen denizens of the new Sub-Arctic.

   Several Blue Jays prospects were invited to big league camp, and a few have already seen game action.
Dalton Pompey has started both games so far, and acquitted himself well - no surprise.  Miguel Castro threw a scoreless inning yesterday, Devon Travis went 0-4 in his first taste of MLB action, Mitch Nay hit an RBI single, and Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith, Jr made pinch-running appearances.

   Speaking of Nay, who hit an impressive Home Run in the Blue Jays inter-squad game on Monday, word is that he has been working with former Jays third baseman Scott Rolen this spring.  The concern about Nay has always been about his defence, but the club appears intent on giving him every opportunity to play himself out of the position.  Nay didn't show a lot of power at Lansing last year, but the organization isn't concerned, because the Midwest League is not a hitter's haven, and the hope is that Nay's 34 doubles (third highest total in the loop) will start to translate into some distance.  He fell off the radar a bit this past season, but at 21, there's plenty of time and projection left for him.

   Pompey has also been working with former Jay Vernon Wells, who was invited to spring training as a guest instructor.  It's a good PR move for teams to bring these former players back, and it also gives them some added teaching hands, and gives both sides a chance to see if coaching is in the player's future.  Wells, of course, is beyond financially comfortable, and is content to help raise his kids in Texas.  Kids grow up, however, and some of us find ourselves with a sudden surfeit of time when they leave the nest to go away to school.  Maybe Vernon will have a change of heart in a few years.

   The Blue Jays are holding a mini-camp this week for some of their top prospects.  According to Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com, Rowdy Tellez has been an impressive early-reporting prospect.  Tellez recovered from a slow start last year at Bluefield, which included an 0-26 stretch, to bash his way to the Midwest League by season's end.  Tellez has legendary power, but there has always been concern about his body, and if he would be able to play defence.  According to Mayo, Assistant GM Tony LaCava says Tellez has shown up in great shape:

He's really done a great job of conditioning," LaCava said. "He looks like he's transformed his body. It's not even an issue any more. I know that was a concern out of high school. He's worked his butt off to get himself in shape. He looks like he's ready to get going with his first full year at a full-season level."

   Mayo also says that LaCava told him that 2014 5th round draft choice Lane Thomas has also been impressive at the mini-camp.


    Mayo selected a pair of prospects who he thinks will have break out seasons this year:  Tellez, and C Danny Jansen.  Not to boast or anything, but both are on my recent top five Blue Jays breakout prospect candidates list.       

   Jeff Hoffman was a guest on his hometown Albany's 104.5 The Team earlier this week.  Hoffman, the Jays' first of two first round picks who underwent Tommy John surgery a month before the draft tweeted this a week and a half ago:

Bullpen number 15 tomorrow. Bout ready to see someone in the box. ⚡️⚾️🔥
— Jeff Hoffman (@hoff_23) February 23, 2015

   Hoffman told host Armen Williams that he had been throwing off a mound since January 5th, and was feeling about 95%, and will start to face live hitters around the middle of March.  If his rehab continues to go well, Hoffman says he's been told he will return to game action sometime in May - in the Florida State League, we would bet.  He was also asked about his name being mentioned in trade rumours for O's GM Dan Duquette, and Hoffman admitted that it was a distraction, but he knew it was out of his control.

 

Who's the Next Blue Jays Breakout Prospect?

   After Blue Jays prospects Daniel Norris, Kendall Graveman, Miguel Castro, and Dalton Pompey caught heavy doses of helium and quickly ascended the prospect ladder in 2014, it's time to take a look to see who could be poised for a similar breakout this year.
   Norris was on most Top 10 Blue Jays prospects list heading into last season.  Such was not the case with Graveman and Pompey.  And while Pompey and Norris' stats over the final weeks of the 2013 season gave a small glimpse of what was to come, Graveman gave no such indication of the quantum leap he was about to take.
  So, in determining who these prospects might be,  we looked at what their numbers over the last six or so weeks of the season were like.  We also tended to look at those outside of our Top 10, too.  So, here are several players who might make several jumps up the minor league ladder this year, and become familiar names to diehard Blue Jays fans -  if everything falls into place for them:


1.  Jairo Labourt, LHP
   Labourt's 2014 was very much a tale of two seasons.
  Challenged with an assignment to Lansing to start the season, Labourt struggled with his command, and was sent back to extended spring training after walking 20 in his first 14 innings.
Labourt regrouped in Florida and was sent to Vancouver when Northwest League play started in June. He was brilliant in the C's rotation, and was named the league's 3rd best prospect by Baseball America.  
   He rediscovered his command in the Pacific Northwest, striking out 82 in 71 innings, while walking 37.  Right handed hitters managed only a .171/.286/.202 line against him.
   Labourt's fastball sits in the low 90s, and touches 95.  His slider rates as his best secondary pitch, sometimes showing tilt and depth, but he had trouble commanding it this year.
 Why he may breakout:  From mid-July on, Labourt posted an 0.95 ERA in 9 starts totalling 47 innings.  He walked 22, and struck out 53.  He will be eager to repeat that success in a second shot at the Midwest League.  If he continues to command his fastball and develop this secondaries, Labourt could advance several levels this year.

2.  Rowdy Tellez, 1B
   We've tried not to go overboard in our praise of the Californian slugger.  This may be the year that the Blue Jays take the wraps off of him and let him soar.
   A legend on the showcase circuit during his high school years, Tellez struggled in his first summer of pro ball in the GCL in 2013, but brought his final numbers up to near-respectability with a hot final week of the short season summer.  Reports out of Florida said that he barreled up a lot of balls in the final two weeks of the season.
   He struggled again at the next level with Bluefield of the Appalachian League again this summer, going 0-33 at one point.  And then Tellez took off.  He mashed Appy League pitching, and earned a late season promotion to Lansing, before moving back down to Vancouver to help with the C's bid for a fourth straight NWL crown.
     For the season, his line was .305/.375/.438.  Despite the fact that his hit tool far surpasses anything else in his toolkit, Tellez is not a one-dimensional slugger, as his OBP would suggest.  Tellez has a respectable K/BB ratio for a power hitter.
   The Blue Jays have been very patient with Tellez to this point.  The Midwest League can be tough on a young hitter, but if Tellez can overcome his tendency to start slowly, he may start to move rapidly this year.
   Tellez is another one of Blue Jays Performance Coach Steve Springer's protegees, and you can almost hear Springer in Tellez's approach to hitting:

“The name of the game is to not get yourself out,” espoused Tellez. “You want to be selective in the zone and not chase. And when you do get your pitch, don’t miss it. Pitchers are going to make pitches and hitters are going to miss pitches they should hit. That’s why it’s a game of failure. It is what it is. It’s baseball. But I don’t find myself striking out a lot, ever, really. Knock on wood.”

Why he may break out:  From mid-July, Tellez hit .365/.421/.535.  He has a solid approach at the plate.  His development may accelerate in full season ball.

 3.  Matt Smoral, LHP
   The Blue Jays have made a habit of taking longer looks at players whose senior high school seasons were disrupted or even lost to injury, and they took a pair in 2012 in Arizona HS third baseman Mitch Nay, and Ohio Prep Southpaw Smoral, who was shut down for his senior year after surgery to repair a foot injury. Both are still developing, but the Blue Jays may have acquired good value for both.
   Smoral didn't make his pro debut until 2013, and struggled in the GCL, but that wasn't a surprise.  The complex league is a place where the organization places some prospects on the potter's wheel and re-molds them in a more efficient cast.  The GCL is often the place where those new products get some of the rough edges rounded off.
   Playing under the lights for the first time with Bluefield this year, Smoral was electric in his debut, striking out 8 in 3 innings.  Promoted to Vancouver, Smoral held his own against the more advanced NWL hitters.  He likely will be anxious to atone for a poor outing which likely cost the C's the final game of the league championship series.
  Command of his fastball is the issue for Smoral.  Once he consistently develops it, his secondary pitches, his slider in particular, will become that much more effective.  At 6'8", he gets considerable downward on his plane, and his high elbow lift gives him good deception in his delivery.  His size also gives him good extension on his fastball, and gives it late life.
Why he may break out: Tall lefthanders, for whatever reason, seem to take longer to develop.  Once he develops improved control of his fastball, he will take off.  Smoral will start at Lansing this year, and could be poised to make multiple jumps up the ladder.  

4.  Ryan Borucki, LHP
   Because you can't have enough tall, athletic left handed pitchers.
Borucki was another 2012 draftee whose arm issues scared most teams away.  The Blue Jays took him in the 15th round, and he gutted out 4 outings in the GCL that year.  The elbow did not improve, and Borucki underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of spring training, 2013.
  Sent to Bluefield with Smoral to begin 2014, Borucki was lights out in the Appy League, striking out 30 and walking only 6 in 33 innings.  Sent to Vancouver, Borucki didn't miss a beat, and Northwest League hitters managed only a .159 batting average against him.
   Borucki threw 90-93 before his surgery, and indications are that he has that velocity back.  He won't blow hitters away, but he missed a lot of bats this year despite being around the plate a lot.  That tells you a great deal about not just his command, but his feel for pitching.
  Borcuki will start at Lansing, and may move quickly.  As a midwesterner, he's familiar with the cool Midwest League spring.
Why he may break out:  Borucki already seems to have conquered any command issues.  He knows how to pitch.

5.  Dan Jansen, C
   As with any sort of final pick, this was a tough one.  Matt Boyd, yet another southpaw, merits consideration.  He pitched better than Graveman and Norris through May, but a foot injury and later bone chips led to inconsistency and a loss in velocity.  Boyd says he is healthy, and if he makes a quantum leap this year, well, you read it here first.
   This spot has to go to Jansen, though.  With only a relatively small sample size on his playing resume, he has already drawn rave reviews for his receiving skills, and has established himself as a decent hitter.  Another overlooked high school player (from the non-baseball hotbed of Wisconsin - the most noted Dan Jansen from that state to this point is the former Olympic speed skater), Jansen missed the last month of the season with a knee injury, but all reports say that he is recovered and ready to go for spring training.  He has excellent bat speed, and has been lauded for how he handles a pitching staff.
Why he may break out: The drafting of Max Pentecost and the signing of Russell Martin pushes Jansen down the depth charts, but that may be doing him a favour.  There is no need to rush his development.  That may allow him to spend most of the season at Lansing, and while he may not move up the ladder at a rocket pace, it may allow his status as a prospect grow, and make him a breakout prospect in that manner.

  A final word of caution:  these are prospects, after all.  Their development is not necessarily linear.
The odds of all of the above leaping into mega-prospect status are still long, and we may not see the type of leaps made by Norris/Graveman/Pompey/Castro for a long time.  The above, however, are players who allowed the same kind of glimpses into their potential that group gave us in 2013.

Clutchlings' Revised Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects

   The laptop had no more than cooled off after we published our first Top 10 list a few months ago, when the Blue Jays traded Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Brett Lawrie to Oakland for Josh Donaldson.  While we hated to see Barreto, in particular, go, the addition of Donaldson makes an already-potent top half of the batting order that much better.
   Given that Barreto and Graveman were in that Top 10, and given some other developments over the past few weeks, we decided to revise that list.  Noticeable for his absence is OF Anthony Alford, who just missed the cut.  Watching the youngster against the veteran Australian League pitchers this winter has made us realize that he's a bit further away that we had originally thought.  By his own admission, Alford was too aggressive at times, and the ABL pitchers made him pay.  Still, the experience will only pay off for him down the road, and if you think Dalton Pompey plays some highlight-reel defence, wait until you see Alford and his Dysonian glove cover centerfield.


#1  Daniel Norris, LHP
   Norris has become something of a folk hero this off-season, with his shaggy beard and Westfalia van of the same name.  Personally, I don't find it odd at all that a young man his age loves the outdoors and adventure, but some in the media are playing up that granola-ish image. The problem with promoting such an image is that intends to become a lasting impression for some, which is a shame, because Norris is more than a ball player.  He's a bright, articulate, thoughtful young man who is quite interested in the world around him. Let's hope the media doesn't turn him into something of a caricature.  Former Cards and Brewers C/DH Ted Simmons once said of his years in the late 60s at the University of Michigan, "(it was) a time when I learned more how to function as a member of society, and less as someone who was trying to hit the curveball." And in the world of baseball, it takes a lot of courage to think like that.
   After hammering out his control issues and learning to trust his fastball in Low A in 2013, Norris rode a rocket to the big leagues last year.  Bone chips in his elbow that had to be removed after the season cost him some velocity when he was called up to the Blue Jays in September, but it was impressive how he used his guile and secondary pitches to get outs just the same.
   Norris led all minor leaguers with a 11.8/9 strikeout rate this year.  Sitting between 91-95 with his fastball, he touched 97 on occasion.  His slider and change project to be plus offerings, and he lands in a good fielding position after his delivery.  Norris is the total package.
  About the only thing that Norris has to work on is economizing his pitch count, and lasting deeper into games.  If he has proven that he is capable of doing that this spring, he should break camp with the Blue Jays.  If not, he will head to Buffalo for more seasoning, but his stay there may not be all that long.

#2 Aaron Sanchez
  The ascent of Sanchez, while not as meteoric as that of Norris, was still a welcome development last year.
  It's not easy wearing the crown of Top Prospect for as long as Sanchez has, and the team's minor league development staff have put considerable work in helping him harness his abundant natural ability.
   Sanchez, to put if bluntly, has had troubles keeping his walk totals down as a minor league starter.  With the big league bullpen in shambles, the club converted Sanchez to relief shortly after promoting him to Buffalo.  After a couple of appearances, he found himself on a big league mound in Toronto.
   Sanchez was lights out in relief.  With his pitch repertoire pared down to his sinker (thrown 60% on the time while in the majors), and his fourseamer (23%), Sanchez was brilliant for two months in the Toronto bullpen.
   The dilemma now becomes should he be stretched back out as a starter, and compete for the 5th starter's job with Norris and others?  The answer for now seems to be yes.
   Sanchez throws with a nice, easy delivery, and the ball seems to explode out of his hand.  There are concerns with how short his landing is, as the club has shortened the stride in his delivery to help him keep on top of the ball.  The concern, among some, is that this delivery puts unnecessary strain on his shoulder, and an injury may only be a matter of time.
   If Sanchez struggles with his control in spring training, will the club send him back to Buffalo to get things ironed out, or will he become a back of the bullpen arm?  As with many players the Blue Jays have drafted over the years, the upside and risk of Aaron Sanchez appear to be of almost equal proportions.

#3 Dalton Pompey
    The development of Pompey is a tribute to the doggedness of the Blue Jays scouting staff, and the patience of their minor league people.  They stuck with him through his first three minor league seasons, when his performance was marked by inconsistency and injury, gave him time to develop in Lansing, and then watched him blossom last year. There were signs in his last month at Lansing in 2013 that he was about to bust out, but no one expected that he would become the mega-prospect he turned into in 2014.
   Pompey hits the ball hard, draws walks, plays highlight reel defence, and is both a stolen base threat and a smart baserunner.  Unless he stumbles badly in spring training, you would have to think that he will either claim the centrefield job outright, or earn a portion of it in tandem with Kevin Pillar.
   He should be a fixture in the top of the Blue Jays batting order for years to come.

4.  Jeff Hoffman, rhp
 We've been back and forth on Hoffman.  That the Baltimore Orioles, either themselves or through media intermediaries, were said to be insisting on the 2014 draftee as part of any compensation package for GM Dan Duquette, tells a great deal about his potential.  The Blue Jays, wisely (if this was the case), backed away.  We also learned, via Jeff Blair of Sportsnet, that the Braves were asking about Hoffman, and were  willing to send Justin Upton in return.
   Hoffman had Tommy John surgery in early May.  All appears to be going well with his rehab. He was throwing off a mound around Christmas time, and appears to be on schedule to return to game action in late April or early May.
  Everything that we have heard and read about Hoffman is that he is front-of-the-rotation material.  The Blue Jays appear to have obtained a top 3 pick for 9th pick bonus money.  Patience for at least this year is the key.  He will have to deal with the usual command and velocity issues that players coming back from the surgery have to deal with.  Like the next guy on the list.

5.  Roberto Osuna, rhp
   Osuna had no trouble dialing up his old velocity, touching 95 with his fastball in the Arizona Fall League.
   His plus changeup, and his advanced feel (for someone just turning 20) for pitching returned, too.  What he appeared to be missing was his command of all of his pitches.  Osuna caught too much of the strike zone in the AFL, and the elite hitters there made him pay for it.
  There is also a concern among some that Osuna's fastball doesn't have enough movement, due to the wrist wrap in his delivery.  The club has invited him to spring training with the major league club, which suggests they have high hopes for him.
  One positive thing about Osuna's TJ surgery in July of 2013 is that you don't hear the words "high maintenance body" applied to him any more.  He has lost considerable weight, and appears to be taking his nutrition and conditioning seriously.

6.  Miguel Castro, rhp
   Take away the impressive seasons Norris and Kendall Graveman had, and no other Blue Jays pitcher made as much progress as Castro did last season.
  In only his second stateside season, he progressed as far as High A,  dazzling hitters with the command of his plus fastball.  Just turned 20 on Christmas Eve, Castro was invited to spring training as well, with the suggestion from GM Alex Anthopoulos that we will see Castro pitching out of the Blue Jays pen sooner rather than later this summer.
   The issue with Castro has been the development of his secondary pitches, although his fastball gives him a larger margin of error than it would for other pitchers.  He gets good sink on his fastball, which can bore in on right handed hitters; with his milb career splits against them, we can understand the Blue Jays toying with the idea of having him pitch in relief.  He is still so young, however, we hope that he will be given at least one more season to develop his off speed and breaking pitches.

7.  Richard Urena, ss
   With the Barreto trade, Urena now becomes the team's shortstop of the future.  Some have labelled him major league-ready defensively. Unlike Barreto and Dawel Lugo, who were part of the same IFA class as Urena in 2012, he is projected to stay at the position.
   A natural lefthanded hitter, Urena tried switch-hitting this year, and was successful.  Reports suggest his power grades as below average, but he has plus bat speed, and barrels up balls well to all fields.  Urena will not turn 19 until later this month, but once he reaches full season ball (which should be this year), his development could accelerate quickly.

8.  Max Pentecost, c
   Pentecost leaps into our top 10 from the margins after some second thought (and the trade of Graveman and Barreto).  His shoulder surgery will back up his developmental timetable somewhat, but the kid is an athlete - one who can actually play.
   Pentecost profiles as a bat-first catcher.  The club has some work to do with his receiving and game-calling skills.  He is regarded as fast, and not just for a catcher.
  Which brings to mind tales of the legendary Branch Rickey.  In the days when farm systems were in their infancy, Rickey pioneered the tryout camp, where mass numbers of players were culled.  For Rickey, the most important tool was speed, both from an offensive and defensive perspective, and one of the first acts of his camps was to line the prospective players up and run a 60 yard dash; those who finished in the back of the pack were sent home before they ever even picked up a glove or bat.
According to Kevin Kerrane, who wrote the excellent treatise on scouting that is Dollar Sign on the Muscle, "(Rickey) believed it (speed) to be the single biggest indicator of major league potential."
  Keeping that in mind, we're inclined to look a little more favourably on Pentecost now.
 
9.  Devon Travis, 2b
   There is no Blue Jays prospect who has sparked as much divided opinion as Travis.
Blocked by Ian Kinsler in Detroit, the Tigers were set to give him a shot in the outfield, but ultimately saw Anthony Gose as a better bet for depth.
   At this point, the only thing holding Travis back would be his lack of experience.  Unless he has a knockout spring, that would be the only reason to send him to Buffalo.  And if incumbent Maicer Izturis' rehabbed knee isn't up to the task, the time may be sooner rather than later for Travis.
   Travis lacks one outstanding tool, and that seems to be the hangup for some people.  There's everything in the CV he has compiled to this point to indicate that he will hit.  Maybe not for a batting title, but he will provide some spark to the offence, while playing adequate defence.
   We have to make room for him on this list.  He's almost major league ready.  He's maybe not a multiple WAR guy, but he's not far away from helping this club plug a longstanding hole.

10.  Sean Reid-Foley, rhp
  We've developed a tradition of using this spot for a high ceiling, but far away player.  Like Alford, who we still believe in, but he still has a steep learning curve ahead of him.
   Again, reading over reports this winter, there's a growing consensus that the Blue Jays stole one when they selected Reid-Foley. The Blue Jays may once more have acquired a top level talent without paying a commensurate (relatively speaking) price for it. He did not overwhelm in his first pro season, but you have to look no further than the top 3 players on this list to realize that you can't read much into that.  In the back fields of the Dunedin complex, much goes on in the way of rebuilding swings and overhauling deliveries.  Reid-Foley may have been in the shop for some alterations last summer, and it will be interesting to see where and how he develops this season.  We think prospects like Ryan Borucki and Matt Smoral who are ahead of Reid-Foley in terms of age, experience, and devlopment may be more likely breakthrough candidates this year, but he may ultimately have the highest ceiling.

Blue Jays Prospects: Who Could Contribute This Year?

   A Twitter follower asked us if we could come up with a list of prospects not named Daniel Norris or Dalton Pompey who we thought might make a contribution with the Blue Jays in 2015.
   That's a tough task, given that the club's top two hopefuls (Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman) not only had lengthy stays on the 25 man roster last year, they also made significant contributions to the club, and Norris and Pompey are likely to have a similar impact at some point next year.  Of all the prospects in the Blue Jays system, there is only one who might have any kind of similar impact in 2015:

Miguel Castro, RHP
   The one player who could make an Aaron Sanchez-like impact is this tall, skinny Dominican hurler.
   Castro regularly hits 98 on the gun and touches 100 with his fastball. Northwest League hitters were over matched against him, so he was promoted to Lansing and then Dunedin before season's end.
   The knock against Castro, as has been well documented, is that his secondary pitches grade as average at best. He will likely start at Dunedin and be moved to New Hampshire if he continues to have the kind of success he has had to date.  If his offspeed repertoire has not advanced enough, AA hitters will likely make him pay for it - if they can get around on his fastball.
  Alex Anthopolous himself has suggested that we may see Castro in the Toronto bullpen this summer.  If his first few starts at AA are rough ones, we don't think the club would hesitate to make the switch, and have him follow a conversion similar to that of Sanchez - a couple of Milb relief appearances, and a promotion to the bigs by mid-summer.
  As much as we would like the club to give Castro every chance to prove he can be a starter this year, and given the status of the current Toronto pen, this plan makes a lot of sense.
   MLB.com gives us a glimpse of the 19 year old:

 So, the following players are ones who we think have an outside shot at making an appearance at some point in the major leagues this year, but their impact will likely be less dramatic.

Ryan Tepera, RHP
   A middling starter for much of his career since being chosen by Toronto in the 19th round of the 2009 draft, Tepera's fortunes began to change when the organization moved him to a bullpen role with New Hampshire in 2013.
   Left off the 40 man roster and eligible for the Rule 5 draft last fall, Marc Hulett named Tepera as his top selection.  Luckily, all 30 MLB teams passed on him, and Tepera pitched in relief for Buffalo last season.  His numbers were not overwhelming, but he struck out slightly more than a batter per inning, and had a decent BB/K ratio.
   Tepera has hit 96 with his fastball, and has a sinker with good downward action.  The Blue Jays thought enough of him that they put him on the 40 man just before the November deadline this year, in order to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.  We can't see him breaking camp with the big team in April, but we can see him with the club at some point, especially if there are any bullpen meltdowns.
  You won't get a strike out the side type of power arm with Tepera, but what you will get is a pitcher who throws strikes, and pounds the lower part of the strike zone.  His likely role with the club would be in long relief, doing a Chad Jenkins-like Toronto-Buffalo QEW Shuffle.


Chad Jenkins, RHP
   We can't really think of the 2009 1st rounder as a prospect anymore, but the truth is that he pitched well for the club in a variety of roles last year, including emergency starter and first guy out of the pen.
  Jenkins is not a flamethrower, barely topping 91 with his fastball.  What he does is keep the ball down, essential for any Rogers Centre pitcher:

  Jenkins has one year of options remaining, so it's likely that he will continue in his role as a fill-in, cross the Peace Bridge multiple times guy.  He can make a contribution, but it will most likely be in an emergency role.

AJ Jimenez, C
   Once a fringe Top 10 prospect, Jimenez has fallen off the radar due to an inability to stay healthy over the past two years, and growing concerns about his bat.
   Having watched a fair bit of him, he has the makings of a premium backstop.  Lithe and athletic, his moves behind the plate are cat-like.  He is adept at blocking balls in the dirt, and is a good handler of pitchers - he's caught a fair amount of Stroman, Sanchez, and a bit of Norris.
   At the plate, Jimenez has a line drive stroke, but doesn't project to hit for much power.  He doesn't walk or strikeout out a whole lot:

 

MLBfarm.com

    The signing of Russell Martin, of course, was not good news for Jimenez.  With Josh Thole firmly ensconced as RA Dickey's catcher, there would appear to be no room for Jimenez, who is heading into his final year of options.  If Martin proves successful at catching Dickey's knuckler, or if he gets injured, a spot might open up for Jimenez.  With Max Pentecost and Danny Jansen on their way up the system, Jimenez's time with the organization might be limited, anyway.  If he were to make a contribution to the club this year, it would be in a reserve role.

Andy Burns, 3B

   Burns was the surprise of the organization last year, playing at A+ and AA before finishing off his season in fine style in the Arizona Fall League.

  A slow start cost him a chance at advancement this year.  Burns hit .200/.261/.294 in April, and .223/.317/.359 in May before finally heating up, and finishing the year at .255/.315/.430.  

   He played mostly 3rd this year at AA, but Burns has the athleticism to play a variety of positions both infield and outfield.  The Blue Jays played him at five positions in Arizona, as it looks like they are priming him to be a super utility player.  With things more or less open in the competition for the 2nd base job with Toronto at spring training, it will be interesting to see where the club decides to play Burns, who will likely play at Buffalo.  

  If injuries and/or inconsistency open up a spot for a player who can play a variety of positions, Burns could get an audition.

Jon Berti, 2B, Devon Travis 2B
   The acquisition of Travis  pushes Berti down the depth chart.  Berti projects to have plus speed, but the question is if he will get on base enough to take advantage of it.  Berti drew good reviews for his play against top calibre competition in the Arizona Fall League.
   Travis, similar to Kevin Pillar, has hit just about everywhere he has played, but like Pillar has more than his fair share of detractors.  He will likely start the season at Buffalo, with Berti returning to New Hampshire.  The need for some offence at the position on the big club is so huge that we can easily see one of the pair get a trial in the majors if they get off to a blazing start.
   With his speed, Berti profiles more as a leadoff hitter, although he posted his lowest walk rate in four years of pro ball last year at AA.  Travis is projected to be more of a bat will play kind of guy, likely in the bottom third of the order.
 


   And that's about it.  Farm systems tend to be cyclical in nature, so this year may be a bit of a down year in terms of producing players who can make a significant impact at the major league level.  As we have written before, with over half of the system's depth a Low A or lower, and with 3 of its top 20 prospects traded in the Josh Donaldson deal, it will take at least another year to produce any more top level talent.