Do Trades for Prospects Really Work?

Franklin Barreto - milb.com photo

  On November 28th, 2014, then-Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos dealt 3rd Baseman Brett Lawrie and three prospects for Oakland 3B Josh Donaldson.  It was not the first time Anthopoulos had dealt prospects in an attempt to bolster the major league roster, of course, and the November deal did not bring about an end to his prospect dealing.  In 4 separate deadline deals in 2015, Anthopoulos dealt a total of 10 prospects at the July trade deadline.

   At that time, many hard core Blue Jays fans had mixed feelings.  On the one hand, the club was able to pick up key pieces like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price without sacrificing a player from the 25-man roster.  On the other, the club parted with some top prospects like Jeff Hoffman and Daniel Norris, and dealt some of its prospect depth.

   By September, of 2015, however, most of that concern had long since faded away.  The Blue Jays turned their season around, playing scorching baseball down the stretch to break a two decades long playoff drought.   As the 2017 season progresses, the team's aging core is showing signs of wear and tear, and while the farm system is producing talent in abundance,  in the words of President Mark Shaprio, "Most of it is at the lower levels."  The club looks to be at the fringes of a post-season berth, at best.

   Will Shapiro and his front office colleagues be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?  Will they look to shed some contractual obligations, or will they try to once again upgrade the major league roster by dealing some of that far-off prospect depth?

   History suggests that dealing for prospects doesn't always work.  Here's a look at the deals Anthopoulos made to give us much of the current big league roster, and an analysis of the benefits they brought to the club:

November 28, 2014
   Josh Donaldson for Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Brett Lawrie.

    Donaldson has provided 17.7 WAR (BR's version) of value, an MVP award, and led the team to a pair of post-season appearances since his acquisiton.  Barreto won the Northwest League's MVP award that year at the tender age of 18, and was the centrepiece of that deal.  He made his MLB debut in June, and was returned to AAA after hitting .190/.262/.381.  Graveman did a decent job in the back of the Athletics' rotation last year, but injuries have limited him to 8 starts this year, and he's currently on a rehab assignment.  The oft-injured Noin made 6 starts for Oakland in 2015, spent all of last year on the DL, and was picked up by Milwaukee on waivers last fall.  He's been on the DL again since Opening Day.  Lawrie was dealt to the White Sox after one season, and was released early in spring training this year, and has yet to catch on with an MLB organization.
    It was sad to see Barreto go, but he was so far away (and there was considerable doubt about his eventual position), so the victors in this deal were clearly the Blue Jays.

July 28, 2015
   Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins for Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco.
   
    Tulo plugged the gaping hole at SS that was Reyes, and Hawkins stablilized the 7th inning for the club, and both were integral parts of the run to the pennant that year.  Hoffman was a 1st round pick in 2014, but was coming off Tommy John surgery.  He made 4 starts for Colorado in 2016, and now has become a mainstay of their rotation, but like many pitchers who ply their trade in Coors Field, his numbers are a bit unsightly.  Castro was an electric-armed reliever who rocketed through the Blue Jays farm system in 2014, and broke camp with the club the following year, even though he had never pitched about High A.  MLB hitters teed off on his fastball, which consistently caught too much of the plate, and he was back in the minors after a month.  Traded to Baltimore at the start of this season, Castro has been on the MLB/AAA shuffle, but appears to be sticking with the O's this time around, and has posted a 2.70 ERA in 26 innings.  Tinoco made great progress in Low A in 2015, but has struggled since then, and has yet to pitch above High A.
   Hawkins retired after 2015, and while Tulo has had his struggles with the bat this year, and is possibly out for the season after injuring his ankle this weekend,  the Blue Jays are once again clearly the hands-down winners of this deal.  His contributions on and off the field have been numerous.

July 30, 2015
   David Price for Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd
    On paper, this deal had the greatest potential to be win-win for both sides.  Price gave the Blue Jays a legitimate ace, and Norris and Boyd promised to give the Tigers some long-term rotation depth.
     Price, of course, moved on to the Red Sox as a free agent at the end of the season.  Norris had some health issues, but over the last month of 2016 appeared to be on the verge of becoming a front-of-the-rotation arm.  Boyd was never a highly-heralded prospect, but all he did as a minor leaguer was get hitters out.  He made 18 starts for the Tigers in 2016, and it was easy to pencil him in as a back-of-the-rotation guy for 2017.  Both have had their struggles this year:  Norris posted a 5.29 ERA in 16 starts before going on the DL in early July, and is rehabbing in AAA; Boyd has been on the Detroit-Toledo shuffle after making the club out of spring training, and is currently with the Tigers.
    Price led the Blue Jays to the post-season.  Norris and Boyd have not put the Tigers over the top.  If there was a winner in this deal, a slight edge would go to the Blue Jays, although they have proved they could have used some starting pitching depth this year.

July 31st, 2015
   Mark Lowe for Jake Brentz and Nick Wells.
    Lowe, along with Hawkins, helped bolster the Blue Jays pennant run in 2015.  He left for the Tigers as a free agent after the season, and has bounced to the Mariners and the White Sox, for whom he's pitching in AAA at the moment.
    Brentz was a project - a guy who hadn't pitched a whole lot before being drafted, and was still learning the craft in 2015.  Dealt to the Pirates last year, he was moved to the bullpen full time this year, and was recently promoted to AA.  In four pro seasons, Wells has not pitched above Low A.
    This is a  deal that is almost a wash, except for the fact that Lowe played some post-season ball in 2015.

July 31, 2015
   Ben Revere for Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado.
   Revere played very well for the Blue Jays for two months in 2015, and was a fixture at the top of the order, getting on base at a rate well above his career average.  Things have been pretty much downhill for him since then.
   Cordero had a fastball that could reach triple digits, but he didn't always know where it was going, and he's walked as many (32) as he has struck out in 42 innings at AA this year.  Tirado seems to have been around forever, but is only 22.  He had been moved to the bullpen that year after having difficulties as a starter, but the Phillies sent him from High to Low A last year in an attempt to move him back into the rotation.  It seems to have succeeded, as Tirado was promoted to AA recently.
    Slight edge to the Blue Jays.  Revere is long gone, but he gave the club two months of value and contributed to a pennant winner.

   There was some wringing of hands among Blue Jays fans about the number of prospects that were given up, but the truth of the matter is that the only quality players the team gave up were Barreto, Norris, and Hoffman, and all three have yet to make a big impact at the major league level.  The Blue Jays in 2015 were still able to hang onto the prospects they were least willing to part with (Anthony Alford, Rowdy Tellez, Richard Ureña, Conner Greene, Sean Reid-Foley), and yet they acquired key pieces to their pennant drive.
   Recent research by Baseball America suggests that prospect deals made at the trade deadline don't work out for the team acquiring prospects more often than they do.  Most teams now are very reluctant to give up young, controllable players whom they've already invested a great deal of time and money in. And the Blue Jays' experience in 2015 seems to point in that direction.  The short-term gain the team experienced more than cancelled out any long term consequences of the deal, and they still were able to hold on to the prospects the prized the most.

 

Four Blue Jays Prospects Crack BP's Top 101*

Baseball Betsy Photo

  *kinda, sorta........

   Four players drafted and/or signed by the Blue Jays have cracked Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 prospects list this week.
   The catch is, of course, that only two of them are still with the organization.

   Jeff Hoffman, picked in the 1st round, 9th overall in 2014, did not make his pro debut until May of last year due to Tommy John surgery, and was part of the prospects package Toronto shipped to Colorado in the Troy Tulowitzki-Jose Reyes deal.   Hoffman's 2015 was marked by some command issues, but the velocity and advanced feel for pitching scouts have raved about were still there in abundance. Hoffman came in at #24, and you would have to think there's every chance he's in the Rockies' rotation at some point this year.

  Franklin Barreto, the centerpiece (from an Oakland perspective) of the Josh Donaldson deal, checks in a few spots behind Hoffman at #26.  One of the youngest players on this list, Barreto more than held his own as a 19 year old in High A last year.  He still needs to develop some better plate discipline, but he barrels up balls all over the place, and you wonder how long Oakland will continue playing him at short stop. The sooner he makes the switch to either CF of 2B, the faster his development will accelerate.  It's hard to argue the merits of giving up Barreto in light of the MVP season Donaldson had, but with the latter's possible departure for free agency after 2018 and Barreto just starting to come into his own as a first-division major leaguer by that time (at the age of 23), there's still a chance this deal comes out even in the long run.  The 5'9" Barreto would likely have been a huge fan favourite in Toronto, and depending on when the A's promote him to the big leagues, they'll have him under team control for the rest of this decade, and a couple of years of the next.


  But even with dealing those two, plus 16 other prospects over a span of 18 months, the Blue Jays placed two current farmhands in the Top 100, while a couple more could be knocking on the door by season's end, depending on their progress.

  A year ago, there was considerable promise in the form of CF Anthony Alford, but it was hard to imagine him cracking not just BP's Top 101, but even landing in the top half at #44 (he made it as far as 42nd on MLB Pipeline's list).
  In July of 2014, the prospects for Alford ever rising to the levels his talent prophesized seem slim. For the third straight season, the former Mississippi HS two-sport star had started his baseball season late, and ended it early due to his college football commitment - he didn't even make it until the end of July that year, leaving Lansing, where he had jaws dropping over the tools he demonstrated after a five game stint with the Lugnuts, to get married.  Then GM Alex Anthopoulos had waved a huge contract extension in front of Alford, who he had taken in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft despite Alford's intention to play QB at Southern Miss, but Alford kindly passed. By the end of September, however, Alford had changed his mind, and accepted the Blue Jays offer, which came with an invite to spring training with the big team, and a return plane ticket to Australia, where Alford would make up for lost development time in the ABL.
  To say he struggled in the ABL would be to put it mildly.  Facing veteran pitchers, Alford encountered adversity for the first time in his young baseball career, he scuffled to a .207/.327/.319 line, striking out in 30% of his plate appearances.  He did not square up many pitches, plainly. Alford saw few fastballs in the strike zone, and a lot of breaking pitches:

I saw a lot of breaking balls and fast balls out of the zone. I put myself in a bad situation a lot of times by being too aggressive. But they did do a good job of mixing pitches up on me. Most of the guys I faced had at least 6 or 7 years of experience on me. But I really just came over here to learn and caught up as much as I can. I wasn't really worried about the stats. I know they will come.

    And come they did.
    Starting again in Lansing, Alford was a consistent on-base threat at the top of the linuep, reaching base in 33 straight games.  The strikeouts were still a little on the high side, but Alford also showed great patience, walking 39 times in 50 MWL games before being promoted to Dunedin.  Alford also showed an ability to use the whole field, and stole 27 bases between the two levels.  His arm is not rated as being overly strong, and the power isn't there yet, but it's scary to think where Alford might be a year from now.
   Alford is now clearly on the prospect radar.  And it's rewarding to see.  This is the story of a young man who had something of a difficult upbringing, and the pressure to play football on him, when baseball was his first love, was immense.  Many of the people who have coached him over have the same comment:  this is a kid who has a great head on his shoulders, a natural-born leader with a great work ethic.  When Anthopoulos was in the midst of his wheeling and dealing last July, the name that he was asked about most often was Alford's.
    Baseball America had this scouting report on him:

Alford combines physicality and surprising feel for hitting to profile as a potential impact center fielder. Compact and strong, Alford is an elite athlete with burst and double-plus speed that plays both on the bases, where he’s just scratched the surface as a basestealer, and in center field. What stunned Blue Jays officials and scouts this year were Alford’s instincts, which show up in center as he has excellent range that helps make up for his below-average throwing arm. He also has hitting instincts and an advanced approach for a player of his experience level. It’s more than just taking walks, though he does that. Alford works counts, has some idea of a two-strike approach and spoils pitcher’s pitches well. He has the strength and bat speed to drive the ball to all fields, with the quality of his at-bats remaining consistent throughout the season.

   Alford likely needs at least another year of minor league seasoning.  The jump from A to AA is said to be the highest in the minors, so we should get a true read on his abilities this year when he starts the season with New Hampshire.  A year from now, he should be in Top 10 prospect territory.

   If there was a trademark of the Anthopoulos era when it came to scouting, drafting, and developing players, it was that of the tall, lean, athletic high school pitcher.  Certainly, they stepped out of that box to sign a Roberto Osuna or draft a Marcus Stroman, but they've stuck with that tried and true trend.  In 2010, the Jays had 7 of the first 80 picks in the draft, and took 4 HS pitchers with them, including Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Justin Nicolino.  The following year, they took prep hurlers with their first 7 picks, including Tennessee LHP Daniel Norris.
    Included with that number was a 6'3" California high schooler by the name of Conner Greene, who was viewed at that point not for what he was, but he one day might be, according to BA:

Long and lean at 6-foot-3, 160 pounds, Greene is all about projection. He has a high waist, long legs and a quick arm, and he has cleaned up his delivery, helping him touch 91-92 mph on occasion. He usually pitches at 87-88, and his secondary stuff is underdeveloped. He throws a splitter rather than a changeup, and the pitch has sink but is inconsistent. His curve has 11-to-5 break, and his best ones rate as 40s on the 20-80 scouting scale. He needs to sharpen it up and improve his command of his entire repertoire. 

   Brought into the system under the tutelage of the Blue Jays minor league coaching staff, Greene has progressed steadily, and had a breakout 2015 at three levels, which allowed him to claim spot #100 on the list.  His curve has been vastly upgraded, and his velo now sits 93-95.  Greene pounds the lower half of the strike zone, and even though he gives up some contact, it's often of the singles variety, which can often be erased given his propensity to throw groundouts.
   Now that the Toronto media has taken notice of Greene, there's a tendency to think of him as major league ready.  Which he's not.   He still needs to refine his curve, and his change up, while effective against left-handed hitters last year, did not fool righties as often.  Greene's ascendancy was merited, but it owed in part to the lack of depth in the system.  With Buffalo's rotation full of veterans at the moment, there's plenty of reason to let Greene start the season at New Hampshire.


Who's Knocking on the Door?
   There's such a temptation to say Vladimir Guerrero Jr should be the next to crack this list, and while his bat attracted a lot of attention in Instructs last fall, there are still some reasons to hold back one's enthusiasm.
   First of all, the Vlad the Younger won't be 17 until March.  Secondly, while there's little question about his bat, there are plenty about his glove.  Third, he has what scouts have generously described as a thick body - let's go with stocky.  Now, the AL does have this position called the Designated Hitter, and at 17, there's room for growth, and the Blue Jays training staff have already begun the process of transforming his body with proper nutrition, cardio work and weight training, but those red flags are reason enough to be cautious in projecting his future.
   Just the same, there's ample evidence to suggest that this kid is the real deal.  My fellow blogger Baseball Betsy posted a video of one of his Instructs' no-doubters:

  Can he crack the Top 100 this year, or by this time next year?  In all honesty, it wouldn't come as much of a surprise, despite the warning signs.  The Blue Jays staff have worked small miracles with Osuna and Rowdy Tellez, getting them to buy into the need to slim down and develop their bodies as well as their games.  The great Branch Rickey once said that speed is the only skill you can't teach, but there is plenty of time to turn Vlad into a slimmer, more agile version of his younger self.

    There's also a strong possibility that one or more of Tellez, Jon Harris, or even Max Pentecost could be on this list a year from now.  Tellez mashed at two levels last year, and is more than a one-dimensional slugger.  Hitting LHP better is his main challenge now.  Forget last year's numbers: Harris is a better pitcher that his debut year showed, and there's plenty of reason to think that he could move quickly this year. Pentecost is something of a forgotten prospect due to his injuries, and while he can take the field this year, he won't be behind the plate to start the season.  BA is still impressed by him, however:

When healthy, Pentecost showed a tantalizing combination of athleticism and hitting ability for a catcher. He has a sustained track record for hitting thanks to a quick, short swing that he repeats well with modest effort. He has flashed plus raw power in the past, though club officials see him as a hit-first, power-second player. He’s still rebuilding arm strength from his shoulder surgeries, and a return to his previous plus arm strength will take patience and hard work. He’ll need plenty of reps to hone his receiving and blocking skills while working with pro pitchers.

   There's also a chance we're talking about Sean Reid-Foley in the context of this list a year from now.  Everything is there - a fastball that touches 97, with movement and a sharp downward plane. His slider grades a plus pitch, but what seems to hamper SRF is his mechanics.  He repeats his delivery from a consistent slot and arm angle well, but he tends to lose that release point when his foot lands too late, dragging his arm behind.  When this happens, Reid-Foley is prone to drive up his pitch count, causing fatigue and further messing up his mechanics.  When he learns to make those inning-to-inning or even pitch-to-pitch adjustments to get his delivery back in line, Reid-Foley will be ready for prime time.  Even though it has not been mentioned publicly, word is that the Blue Jays do see some similarities between SRF and Jonathan Papelbon, and while the team can always use a back of the bullpen power arm, Reid-Foley will be given every chance to prove he's a starter.

Post Trade Frenzy Thoughts from a Prospect Perspective

   In the past year, the Blue Jays have traded a huge number of prospects in various deals that have brought back Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki,  David Price, Mark Lowe, and Ben Revere.

 Let's just review for a moment:
For Donaldson:   Frankie Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin.
For Tulo:  Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, Jesus Tinoco.
For Price:  Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Jairo Labourt.
For Lowe:  Nick Wells, Jake Brentz,  Rob Rasmussen
For Revere: Alberto Tirado, Jimmy Cordero

And for international bonus money to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr, the Blue Jays traded Chase De Jong and Tim LoCastro.
   So let's make that 15 prospects - Rasmussen is the only one among that group who wouldn't be considered one.

   No one wants to trade away the next Noah Syndergaard, but the Blue Jays have strengthened themselves considerably in these deals, giving up only a single player from the major league roster.
  As someone who follows prospects extensively, watching them on Milb.tv, and talking with someone about them or even to some of them (or their parents) on Twitter (Matt Boyd will always be one of my favourites), it's easy to create a halo effect with these kids, and think that they have few, if any, faults. The truth is, when prospects are traded, it's generally for one or more of four reasons:

1.  The organization sees a window of opportunity, and feels that there is enough depth in the system
     to eventually replenish what was lost.
2.  The organization felt that said prospect had reached his ceiling, and perhaps did not fit into their
     long range plans.
3.  The prospect's future is so far off that the gamble of dealing them for help now is worth the risk.
4.  The trading partner insisted said prospect be included in the deal.

  We'll never know for certain, of course, but media reports suggest that the inclusion of Barreto and Hoffman were at the other club's insistence.  I can't say for certain where the other prospects fit, but I think it's safe to say that the Blue Jays may not have been as reluctant to part with them.
   What were some of the possible blemishes?
With Barreto, who is currently on the 7-Day DL, it continues to be his play at short.  After a very slow start, his bat has rallied, and he's hitting .298/.329/.492 for Oakland's Advanced A club, and he was named Baseball America's 23rd Top Prospect in their mid-season rankings, but his lack of quickness, footwork, and arm strength will likely mean a position switch soon.
  Graveman has pitched very well of late for Oakland after a rough start,  but his flyball rate and 4.76 FIP may not have played in the Rogers Centre as well as it has in cavernous O.Co Coliseum.
  Nolin's career has been marked by an inability to stay healthy, and while he's pitched well for Oakland's AAA affiliate, he's on the DL, and has thrown only 33 innings for them this season.
   Hoffman drew raves earlier this season, but has not missed bats at the rate the Blue Jays likely had hope for.  He is only 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and his command has been slow to return. He has generated a great deal of ground ball outs, which will be essential for a Coors Field starter.
   Castro went from Short Season ball to Blue Jays closer (albeit only briefly) in the space of 9 months, and while he's worked his way back to a relief role in AAA, his lack of secondary pitches may keep him there for the time being, and he still has a way to go in commanding both sides of the plate.  If he can keep the ball down in the zone better, he could be a dominant MLB reliever.
   Tinoco is young, and was right around the Midwestern League averages in strikeout rate.  Blue Jays minor league catcher Danny Jansen told me last year that Tinoco's two-seam fastball has incredible sink when it's on.  He has a live arm, but he's still a long distance from the major leagues.
   Norris started the season with the Blue Jays, but found himself back in Buffalo after a month.  Norris seems to cruise along for most of his starts, and then loses the strike zone completely for an inning.  Whispers about his delivery concerns and possible elbow issues have grown louder as the season has progressed.  He has brilliant last year, and his 2014 season was one of the best a Blue Jays minor league pitcher has ever had.  He immediately takes over Price's spot in the rotation - welcome back to the big leagues, kid.
   Boyd has been one of the best pitchers in all of minor league baseball this year.  His first big league start was a huge success, and then he was rocked by the Red Sox in his second start, leaving the game in the first without having recorded an out.  Like most successful athletes, Boyd quickly put that behind him, and has pitched effectively in Buffalo ever since.  There was no room for him in Toronto's rotation, however.
   Labourt is yet another electric arm, but has had command issues over the past two seasons.  Again, like Tinoco, it's very hard to project someone who is still so far away from the bigs.
  Wells, a southpaw 3rd round California HS pick last year, had a decent pro debut, but has struggled a bit in Bluefield this year.  Brentz did not pitch until his senior year of High School,  and in his third year of pro ball is still a bit of a project - we've been waiting for the results to match his potential.
   Tirado was called a "beast in the making" by Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus two seasons ago; he struggled in his first shot at full season ball with Lansing last year, and finished the season in Vancouver's bullpen.  Pitching again in relief for Dunedin this year, he has fared much better, and may be an arm that will rise to the majors quickly.  Cordero can light up the radar gun, but without a lot of movement, and sometimes not a great idea as to where his fastball is going.
  De Jong repeated Lansing this year, with much better results, and had just been promoted to Dunedin at the time of his trade.  He, along with Boyd, former Jays prospect Joe Musgrove, and current Jay farmhand Dalton Pompey all made Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet this week, making it a pretty good week for the Toronto scouting department. Lo Castro is a modern-day Ron Hunt, willing to do anything to get on base, including being hit by a pitch.  Lo Castro's makeup is off the charts.

   After having written glowingly about that group for some time, I may have seemed overly negative about them in the above paragraphs, but sometimes you have to take a step back and look at prospects from a more critical standpoint.  And while you have to give something in order to get something, I've always felt that for many prospects, there must have been something in their physical or mental makeup that made them expendable from the club's perspective.  It's easy to overvalue your prospects, and sometimes you need to look at their weaknesses as well as their strengths.  The Blue Jays gave up a ton of potential to improve their major league roster, but this was a calculated risk.  This was not a toss at a dart board - despite some criticism on social media about their analytics department, the Blue Jays, who make such deals by a consensus of front office staff, have crunched the numbers, and could likely recite each prospect's scouting reports in their sleep.  And at the end of the day, prospects are just that - players who have a chance.  Outside of Norris, Graveman, and perhaps Boyd, they gave up no one who could stick on a major league roster tomorrow.

  And having said all that, let's remember one thing.  The Blue Jays acquired David Cone, then one of the top pitchers in baseball and a free agent-to-be at the trade deadline in 1992 for prospects Ryan Thompson and Jeff Kent.  Thompson turned into not much more than a marginal MLB player, while Kent amassed over 2400 hits, hit more Home Runs than any MLB 2nd baseman, drove in 90 runs every year from 1997 to 2005, and is a borderline Hall of Famer.  Cone led the Blue Jays to their first ever World Series that year, and even though he left the team after the 92 season, is there anyone who has ever said, "gee, I wish we had kept Kent?"   In 1993, the Blue Jays made another deadline deal, picking up Rickey Henderson for prospects Steve Karsay (a 1990 1st rounder) and Jose Herrera.  Karsay had a couple of decent seasons in a 9-team, 11 year career as a reliever, and Herrera played in parts of two big league seasons.  Both trades go to show that with prospects, in most cases, you never know how they will turn out, and even if they do go on to have successful MLB careers, a ring for the player obtained for them is more than enough to counter-balance that.  Farm systems serve several functions for MLB teams; the main one, of course, is to supply a steady stream of new talent to the parent club.  It also serves as a holding tank for injury replacement players.  And even going back to the time of Branch Rickey, who pioneered the modern-day farm system, it serves as means of strengthening the major league club.
 
It's not all doom and gloom for the Blue Jays minor league system, either.  Yes, they gave up some depth, but through this trading frenzy, they still managed to hang onto some top prospects.  Anthony Alford and Rowdy Tellez remain Blue Jays, and we all should be happy about that, because while both are still a couple of seasons away, both project as impact players one day.  They also kept RHP Sean Reid-Foley, who surely was a coveted target, and even though he's had some control issues this year, is pitching at High A at the age of 19 in only his second pro season.  And I haven't even written about Vladimir Guerrero, Jr yet. Flags do indeed fly forever, but laying waste to a farm system is truly a short-sighted move, and the Blue Jays certainly factored in the remaining depth of talent when they made these deals.
  Who are some other names who move up several slots in the Top Prospect pecking order?  Here are notes about a few:
Conner Greene - RHP, 7th rounder in 2013, just keeps getting better and better; started with Lansing, promoted to Dunedin, hasn't given up a run in his last two starts.
Jon Harris - this year's 1st rounder has not had the success with Vancouver that we thought he might have, but still profiles as a mid-rotation starter, and should fare better next year.
Angel Perdomo - the Jays have taking things slowly with the 6'6" Dominican lefty, but he's missed a lot of bats through his brief minor league career.
Juliandry Higuera - in his first stateside season, the 20 yr old Venezuelan has been Bluefield's best pitcher.
Lupe Chavez  - 17 yr old Mexican RHP was a top-ranked IFA last year; pitching in the Dominican Summer League, has gotten better with every start.
Matt Smoral - the 6'8" LHP was a comp pick in 2012, and has teased us with brief glimpses of dominance in a career slowed by injuries.  I had fully expected him to start with Lansing, but back issues have limited him to 8 innings between Dunedin and Bluefield.  If he ever puts it all together...
Jose Espada - the 5th rounder from this year's draft has impressed in the GCL.
Reggie Pruitt  - I was pretty sure the 24th round Georgia HS would go the college route; he signed for $500K and has had a solid debut in the GCL
Rodrigo Orozco - some of my fellow prospect bloggers were stumped by his name; the 20 year old Panamanian played the last two season in the DSL, and according to Brian Woodfield, who covers the Appy League for the Bluefield Daily Telegraph:

Orozco has been their best player in my opinion. Good leadoff batter, gets on base. High average and speed. Good range

 There are other names, to be sure, and I have my work cut out for me when I compile my Top 10 and Next 10 lists after the fall.  Even putting together my daily list of Blue Jays starters was a bit of a tough task today:

#BlueJays MiLB starters: Buffalo - ? New Hampshire - Lee Dunedin - ? Lansing - Robson Vancouver - Smith? Bluefield - ? Wow.

— Clutchlings (@Clutchlings77) August 1, 2015

  What the acquisition of the five players who cost that bundle does for the above remaining prospects is that it has bought them some time.  It's also removed some names above them that could help accelerate their development.  I've only been doing this prospect thing for a few years, but I can't recall a deadline day quite like this past one.  My Twitter timeline was blowing up, and I had to silence my phone in order to satisfy my wife, who is otherwise quite patient with my obsession.  To summarize - the Blue Jays did give up quite a bit of depth in their minor league system in order to significantly upgrade their roster.  This represents a huge risk, but the system is still in reasonably good shape in terms of prospects (if not in terms of MLB-ready ones).  And at the end of the day, as Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler said:

@Clutchlings77 With great respect to the sea of baseball talents, as someone once said, "prospect" means they haven't done anything yet.

— Jesse G-S (@jgoldstrass) August 1, 2015

  I leave the final word to New Hampshire southpaw Johnny Anderson:

RT if you're a lefty still in the Blue Jays org #oh

— johnny anderson (@j0hnny_anderson) July 31, 2015

A Look at Sean Reid-Foley

MiLB.com photo 

   This is another in my ongoing series of looks at Blue Jays pitching prospects through my subscription to MiLB.TV.
   I am not a scout, and I would encourage you to consult a real scout before taking my word.

   The latest pitching prospect I watched was Lansing right hander Sean Reid-Foley, in his May 30th start at Dayton.  I suppose I could save you some time and tell you from the outset that this appearance could be described in one word:  dominant.   When the thermometer dips and the snow begins to pile up next winter, this might be a warming performance to watch again to help take the chill off.

   The Blue Jays 2nd round choice, 49th overall, Reid-Foley was thought by many to be a late first-round pick last year.  His commitment to Florida State scared some teams off, however, and he fell to the Blue Jays, who gladly scooped him up after acquiring first rounders Jeff Hoffman and Max Pentecost.

  Reid-Foley had a bit of an uneven pro debut in the GCL last year, and it was a little surprising that he was assigned to Lansing this year.  The Lugnuts have been very conservative with his pitch count through the first two months of the season, having gone past the 3rd inning only twice this season prior to this late May start.

   Reid-Foley had scuffled a little bit in his four starts before this one, giving up some hits, and struggling with his command.  This outing against Dayton was a completely different matter.
At 6'3", 220, Reid-Foley cuts an imposing figure on the mound.  Dayton has led the Midwest League in attendance for a decade, averaging almost 8 500 fans during that run - and a crowd of 9 000 gathered to watch. The huge crowd likely gave Reid-Foley a huge boost, as he looked very intense on the mound, and worked quickly.

   Reid-Foley needed 18 pitches to get out of the first, his highest pitch total for the night.  Touching 95 with his fastball, Reid-Foley struck out the first two batters he faced before giving up a soft single to centre.  He got the final out of the inning on a called strike three.

   His pitch count remained very consistent throughout the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, needing only 13,11, and 12 pitches, respectively, despite a 28 minute rain delay.  Only a pair of balls were hit hard, and 3rd Baseman Gunnar Heidt helped him out on one with a strong throw from behind the bag at 3rd.

   Reid-Foley's control slipped a bit in the 5th - in his first four innings, when he missed, it was often just off of the edge of the plate, but he lost the strike zone just a bit in his next-to-last frame.  Pitching into the 6th for the first time as a pro, Reid-Foley put a cherry on top of his triple decker Sundae of a performance by striking out the first two hitters in the 6th on 8 pitches, before reaching his pitch limit.  I counted perhaps two or three balls squared up by Dayton's offence.  There wasn't even a lot of weak contact - there was not much contact in general, and the home team couldn't get a runner past first during his time on the mound.  Here's his final K:

   Reid-Foley threw 74 pitches, 49 of them for strikes.  He threw strikes to 10 of the 19 hitters he faced, and retired 10 of them by strikeout.  16 of his strikes were of the called variety, while 17 were swinging - he missed quite a few bats on the day.  Reid-Foley tended to elevate his fastball a bit when he had two strikes on a hitter. and the Dayton batters couldn't keep up with it.  What I liked about his performance the most is that he didn't just try to blow the ball past hitters - he worked the strike zone, and moved his pitches around the plate well.  Dayton's lineup was very overmatched against him on this occasion.  MWL hitters in general have found themselves flailing at Reid-Foley's pitches this year, shown by his 50Ks in 34 innings.

   What does the future hold for Reid-Foley?  The Blue Jays will likely take their time with him, even though they've shown that they will challenge prospects with aggressive promotions.  At the same time, Reid-Foley won't turn 20 until the end of August, is only a year removed from high school, and has thrown all of 56 innings as a pro.
 \
  With Reid-Foley and Jeff Hoffman starting games tonight, it's easy to picture the pair at the top of the Blue Jays rotation one day.

A Look at Chase De Jong

      

The Toronto Blue Jays have become well known for drafting and developing a certain type of pitcher since Alex Anthopoulos took over as GM in 2009, and overhauled the scouting department:  tall, lean, and athletic.

  The Blue Jays are not married to that concept, and as Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna (although he's radically transformed his body since Tommy John surgery) have proven, they can scout outside of that box, but for every Stroman, there's an Aaron Sanchez and a Miguel Castro, and for every Osuna there's a Jeff Hoffman, Matt Smoral, and a Sean Reid-Foley.
    The reasoning for scouring the hemisphere for this type of pitcher is understandable.  The length allows them to develop a downward plane of their fastballs, which causes the hitter to have to change his focus during the ball's flight to home plate, creating a greater margin of error for a swing and miss, or weak contact.  Tall pitchers (like Castro and Sanchez, especially) can create a bit of an optical illusion because of their extension that hitters call "late life"; hitters have a fraction of a second less to track Castro's fastball, so it appears to "jump" on them because the ball is on them sooner than they realize.
   The lean body type allows the pitcher to have a lower-maintenance physique, which is less prone to injury, and more able to handle the wear and tear of a heavy workload.  One of the few negative things scouts had to say about Osuna was his formerly chunky build.  Medical science is still learning about the factors that precipitate torn ulnar collateral ligaments, but surely an untuned body has to be one.  A heavier pitcher may not necessarily have the musculature to support that weight during the course of repeating a pitching motion thousands of times during a season.
   The athleticism allows the pitcher to repeat his delivery consistently, and maintain a consistent arm slot for their deliveries, while maintaining a bit of deception for the hitters.  At times, a prospect like Daniel Norris comes into the organization with mechanics that are not optimal, but their athletic ability allows them to learn a new way to throw the ball, as well as the confidence to see them through the inevitable setbacks they will encounter as a result.  Athleticism also allows the pitcher to land in a good position to field any balls that come their way.

    I had the opportunity, thanks to milb.tv, to watch Chase De Jong's start this week against Great Lakes.  De Jong, taken in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft, fits the bill for this prototypical Toronto type of pitcher, at 6'4", 205.  Even though he's repeating the Midwest League, there's a great deal to be enthused about, given this start, and the one he threw the week before.  Here's a scouting report from prior to his draft year:

A USC commit, DeJong sits in the high 80s, topping out in low 90s. With a lot of projection left in there, Dejong looks to throw much harder as he fills out his tall, lean frame. He already possesses a hard curve with bite and feel for a changeup and he looks to be a smart pitcher who pounds the strike zone. He works downhill well, getting over his front side, and has an easy arm, remaining very balanced throughout. While not an exceptional talent at the moment, DeJong is the kind of high school arm that could be a completely different pitcher in two years thanks to more physical development and experience in the minors. He isn't the flashiest high school prospect, but has some of the higher upside in the class and shows a good balance of present skills and projectability.  He has the potential to be a solid starter, with the potential for three above average to plus pitches.

   The Blue Jays rolled the dice with De Jong, as they have with so many other picks in the Anthopoulos era.  Because of his USC pledge, De Jong was considered a tough sign - his father is a medical doctor, and his mother is a M. Ed. holder and a middle school guidance counsellor, and some teams obviously felt that education would come first, causing him to drop from a likely sandwich round pick to the 81st overall.  A $620 000 signing bonus offer helped to talk him out of his college commitment.
    De Jong made his pro debut in 2012, and after a pair of promising campaigns in rookie ball, skipped Vancouver and was sent to Lansing for full season ball last year.  And to put it mildly, he struggled.  After a rough April, De Jong seemed to be putting things together in May, but scuffled for much of the rest of the season before being shut down in early August.  Around the plate much of the time, De Jong gave up 113 hits in 97 innings, but walked only 22.
   Understandably, the Blue Jays wanted De Jong to repeat Lansing this season.  Since he barely tops 90 with his fastball and relies on his command, the organization has had him working on a two seamer to get some more movement on his fastball.  His first start of the season showcased the new pitch, as he struck out 9 Lake County hitters before leaving after reaching his pitch count with two out in the 5th on Lansing's Opening Day.
   The camera angle at Great Lakes provides an excellent view of the pitcher from center field, but isn't at a high enough angle to show movement.  De Jong, as is his custom, was around the plate for much of his five inning stint.  He had trouble commanding his curve at times, throwing it up in the zone.  His four seamer also tended to float a bit up in the strike zone, but he owned the bottom half with his two seamer, and while he wasn't as dominant as he was in his first start, De Jong still was impressive, allowing a run on three hits, while walking one and striking out five.
   De Jong has a smooth, easy delivery, and consistently repeats it.  He lands in a good fielding position.  Since he doesn't overpower, command and movement will be the keys to any hopes he has of advancing in the organization.  While velocity and missing a lot of bats advances prospects faster, Mark Buehrle proves that there's a lot to be said for changing speeds, command, and guile.

                                **********************************************

  I also got my first look at Catcher Danny Jansen, and while he's struggled with the bat like many of his young teammates have, I can understand the rave reviews he's earned for his skills behind the plate.
   A big target at 6'2", 210 lbs, Jansen is an effective framer of pitches already, and that skill will only improve as he learns his Lansing pitching staff better.  He is a good blocker of balls in the dirt, and is surprisingly agile for a kid his size.  Jansen gets out to field choppers, bunts, and slow rollers very well.  He handles pitchers well, and has been a contributor to De Jong's success, catching both of his starts so far. Jansen has yet to record his first MWL hit after 18 PA's, but he has hit everywhere he's played, so that may only be a matter of time.  And four walks are included in that total, so he's showing some good strike zone judgement. Max Pentecost may reach the majors before Jansen, but there's a lot to like with this just-turned 20 year old.

Spring Training Prospect Update #1

   Major League training camps are already under way, but most minor league camps don't open until next week, far from the media microscope, but some news is slowly making its way north to help thaw out us frozen denizens of the new Sub-Arctic.

   Several Blue Jays prospects were invited to big league camp, and a few have already seen game action.
Dalton Pompey has started both games so far, and acquitted himself well - no surprise.  Miguel Castro threw a scoreless inning yesterday, Devon Travis went 0-4 in his first taste of MLB action, Mitch Nay hit an RBI single, and Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith, Jr made pinch-running appearances.

   Speaking of Nay, who hit an impressive Home Run in the Blue Jays inter-squad game on Monday, word is that he has been working with former Jays third baseman Scott Rolen this spring.  The concern about Nay has always been about his defence, but the club appears intent on giving him every opportunity to play himself out of the position.  Nay didn't show a lot of power at Lansing last year, but the organization isn't concerned, because the Midwest League is not a hitter's haven, and the hope is that Nay's 34 doubles (third highest total in the loop) will start to translate into some distance.  He fell off the radar a bit this past season, but at 21, there's plenty of time and projection left for him.

   Pompey has also been working with former Jay Vernon Wells, who was invited to spring training as a guest instructor.  It's a good PR move for teams to bring these former players back, and it also gives them some added teaching hands, and gives both sides a chance to see if coaching is in the player's future.  Wells, of course, is beyond financially comfortable, and is content to help raise his kids in Texas.  Kids grow up, however, and some of us find ourselves with a sudden surfeit of time when they leave the nest to go away to school.  Maybe Vernon will have a change of heart in a few years.

   The Blue Jays are holding a mini-camp this week for some of their top prospects.  According to Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com, Rowdy Tellez has been an impressive early-reporting prospect.  Tellez recovered from a slow start last year at Bluefield, which included an 0-26 stretch, to bash his way to the Midwest League by season's end.  Tellez has legendary power, but there has always been concern about his body, and if he would be able to play defence.  According to Mayo, Assistant GM Tony LaCava says Tellez has shown up in great shape:

He's really done a great job of conditioning," LaCava said. "He looks like he's transformed his body. It's not even an issue any more. I know that was a concern out of high school. He's worked his butt off to get himself in shape. He looks like he's ready to get going with his first full year at a full-season level."

   Mayo also says that LaCava told him that 2014 5th round draft choice Lane Thomas has also been impressive at the mini-camp.


    Mayo selected a pair of prospects who he thinks will have break out seasons this year:  Tellez, and C Danny Jansen.  Not to boast or anything, but both are on my recent top five Blue Jays breakout prospect candidates list.       

   Jeff Hoffman was a guest on his hometown Albany's 104.5 The Team earlier this week.  Hoffman, the Jays' first of two first round picks who underwent Tommy John surgery a month before the draft tweeted this a week and a half ago:

Bullpen number 15 tomorrow. Bout ready to see someone in the box. ⚡️⚾️🔥
— Jeff Hoffman (@hoff_23) February 23, 2015

   Hoffman told host Armen Williams that he had been throwing off a mound since January 5th, and was feeling about 95%, and will start to face live hitters around the middle of March.  If his rehab continues to go well, Hoffman says he's been told he will return to game action sometime in May - in the Florida State League, we would bet.  He was also asked about his name being mentioned in trade rumours for O's GM Dan Duquette, and Hoffman admitted that it was a distraction, but he knew it was out of his control.

 

Clutchlings' Revised Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects

   The laptop had no more than cooled off after we published our first Top 10 list a few months ago, when the Blue Jays traded Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Brett Lawrie to Oakland for Josh Donaldson.  While we hated to see Barreto, in particular, go, the addition of Donaldson makes an already-potent top half of the batting order that much better.
   Given that Barreto and Graveman were in that Top 10, and given some other developments over the past few weeks, we decided to revise that list.  Noticeable for his absence is OF Anthony Alford, who just missed the cut.  Watching the youngster against the veteran Australian League pitchers this winter has made us realize that he's a bit further away that we had originally thought.  By his own admission, Alford was too aggressive at times, and the ABL pitchers made him pay.  Still, the experience will only pay off for him down the road, and if you think Dalton Pompey plays some highlight-reel defence, wait until you see Alford and his Dysonian glove cover centerfield.


#1  Daniel Norris, LHP
   Norris has become something of a folk hero this off-season, with his shaggy beard and Westfalia van of the same name.  Personally, I don't find it odd at all that a young man his age loves the outdoors and adventure, but some in the media are playing up that granola-ish image. The problem with promoting such an image is that intends to become a lasting impression for some, which is a shame, because Norris is more than a ball player.  He's a bright, articulate, thoughtful young man who is quite interested in the world around him. Let's hope the media doesn't turn him into something of a caricature.  Former Cards and Brewers C/DH Ted Simmons once said of his years in the late 60s at the University of Michigan, "(it was) a time when I learned more how to function as a member of society, and less as someone who was trying to hit the curveball." And in the world of baseball, it takes a lot of courage to think like that.
   After hammering out his control issues and learning to trust his fastball in Low A in 2013, Norris rode a rocket to the big leagues last year.  Bone chips in his elbow that had to be removed after the season cost him some velocity when he was called up to the Blue Jays in September, but it was impressive how he used his guile and secondary pitches to get outs just the same.
   Norris led all minor leaguers with a 11.8/9 strikeout rate this year.  Sitting between 91-95 with his fastball, he touched 97 on occasion.  His slider and change project to be plus offerings, and he lands in a good fielding position after his delivery.  Norris is the total package.
  About the only thing that Norris has to work on is economizing his pitch count, and lasting deeper into games.  If he has proven that he is capable of doing that this spring, he should break camp with the Blue Jays.  If not, he will head to Buffalo for more seasoning, but his stay there may not be all that long.

#2 Aaron Sanchez
  The ascent of Sanchez, while not as meteoric as that of Norris, was still a welcome development last year.
  It's not easy wearing the crown of Top Prospect for as long as Sanchez has, and the team's minor league development staff have put considerable work in helping him harness his abundant natural ability.
   Sanchez, to put if bluntly, has had troubles keeping his walk totals down as a minor league starter.  With the big league bullpen in shambles, the club converted Sanchez to relief shortly after promoting him to Buffalo.  After a couple of appearances, he found himself on a big league mound in Toronto.
   Sanchez was lights out in relief.  With his pitch repertoire pared down to his sinker (thrown 60% on the time while in the majors), and his fourseamer (23%), Sanchez was brilliant for two months in the Toronto bullpen.
   The dilemma now becomes should he be stretched back out as a starter, and compete for the 5th starter's job with Norris and others?  The answer for now seems to be yes.
   Sanchez throws with a nice, easy delivery, and the ball seems to explode out of his hand.  There are concerns with how short his landing is, as the club has shortened the stride in his delivery to help him keep on top of the ball.  The concern, among some, is that this delivery puts unnecessary strain on his shoulder, and an injury may only be a matter of time.
   If Sanchez struggles with his control in spring training, will the club send him back to Buffalo to get things ironed out, or will he become a back of the bullpen arm?  As with many players the Blue Jays have drafted over the years, the upside and risk of Aaron Sanchez appear to be of almost equal proportions.

#3 Dalton Pompey
    The development of Pompey is a tribute to the doggedness of the Blue Jays scouting staff, and the patience of their minor league people.  They stuck with him through his first three minor league seasons, when his performance was marked by inconsistency and injury, gave him time to develop in Lansing, and then watched him blossom last year. There were signs in his last month at Lansing in 2013 that he was about to bust out, but no one expected that he would become the mega-prospect he turned into in 2014.
   Pompey hits the ball hard, draws walks, plays highlight reel defence, and is both a stolen base threat and a smart baserunner.  Unless he stumbles badly in spring training, you would have to think that he will either claim the centrefield job outright, or earn a portion of it in tandem with Kevin Pillar.
   He should be a fixture in the top of the Blue Jays batting order for years to come.

4.  Jeff Hoffman, rhp
 We've been back and forth on Hoffman.  That the Baltimore Orioles, either themselves or through media intermediaries, were said to be insisting on the 2014 draftee as part of any compensation package for GM Dan Duquette, tells a great deal about his potential.  The Blue Jays, wisely (if this was the case), backed away.  We also learned, via Jeff Blair of Sportsnet, that the Braves were asking about Hoffman, and were  willing to send Justin Upton in return.
   Hoffman had Tommy John surgery in early May.  All appears to be going well with his rehab. He was throwing off a mound around Christmas time, and appears to be on schedule to return to game action in late April or early May.
  Everything that we have heard and read about Hoffman is that he is front-of-the-rotation material.  The Blue Jays appear to have obtained a top 3 pick for 9th pick bonus money.  Patience for at least this year is the key.  He will have to deal with the usual command and velocity issues that players coming back from the surgery have to deal with.  Like the next guy on the list.

5.  Roberto Osuna, rhp
   Osuna had no trouble dialing up his old velocity, touching 95 with his fastball in the Arizona Fall League.
   His plus changeup, and his advanced feel (for someone just turning 20) for pitching returned, too.  What he appeared to be missing was his command of all of his pitches.  Osuna caught too much of the strike zone in the AFL, and the elite hitters there made him pay for it.
  There is also a concern among some that Osuna's fastball doesn't have enough movement, due to the wrist wrap in his delivery.  The club has invited him to spring training with the major league club, which suggests they have high hopes for him.
  One positive thing about Osuna's TJ surgery in July of 2013 is that you don't hear the words "high maintenance body" applied to him any more.  He has lost considerable weight, and appears to be taking his nutrition and conditioning seriously.

6.  Miguel Castro, rhp
   Take away the impressive seasons Norris and Kendall Graveman had, and no other Blue Jays pitcher made as much progress as Castro did last season.
  In only his second stateside season, he progressed as far as High A,  dazzling hitters with the command of his plus fastball.  Just turned 20 on Christmas Eve, Castro was invited to spring training as well, with the suggestion from GM Alex Anthopoulos that we will see Castro pitching out of the Blue Jays pen sooner rather than later this summer.
   The issue with Castro has been the development of his secondary pitches, although his fastball gives him a larger margin of error than it would for other pitchers.  He gets good sink on his fastball, which can bore in on right handed hitters; with his milb career splits against them, we can understand the Blue Jays toying with the idea of having him pitch in relief.  He is still so young, however, we hope that he will be given at least one more season to develop his off speed and breaking pitches.

7.  Richard Urena, ss
   With the Barreto trade, Urena now becomes the team's shortstop of the future.  Some have labelled him major league-ready defensively. Unlike Barreto and Dawel Lugo, who were part of the same IFA class as Urena in 2012, he is projected to stay at the position.
   A natural lefthanded hitter, Urena tried switch-hitting this year, and was successful.  Reports suggest his power grades as below average, but he has plus bat speed, and barrels up balls well to all fields.  Urena will not turn 19 until later this month, but once he reaches full season ball (which should be this year), his development could accelerate quickly.

8.  Max Pentecost, c
   Pentecost leaps into our top 10 from the margins after some second thought (and the trade of Graveman and Barreto).  His shoulder surgery will back up his developmental timetable somewhat, but the kid is an athlete - one who can actually play.
   Pentecost profiles as a bat-first catcher.  The club has some work to do with his receiving and game-calling skills.  He is regarded as fast, and not just for a catcher.
  Which brings to mind tales of the legendary Branch Rickey.  In the days when farm systems were in their infancy, Rickey pioneered the tryout camp, where mass numbers of players were culled.  For Rickey, the most important tool was speed, both from an offensive and defensive perspective, and one of the first acts of his camps was to line the prospective players up and run a 60 yard dash; those who finished in the back of the pack were sent home before they ever even picked up a glove or bat.
According to Kevin Kerrane, who wrote the excellent treatise on scouting that is Dollar Sign on the Muscle, "(Rickey) believed it (speed) to be the single biggest indicator of major league potential."
  Keeping that in mind, we're inclined to look a little more favourably on Pentecost now.
 
9.  Devon Travis, 2b
   There is no Blue Jays prospect who has sparked as much divided opinion as Travis.
Blocked by Ian Kinsler in Detroit, the Tigers were set to give him a shot in the outfield, but ultimately saw Anthony Gose as a better bet for depth.
   At this point, the only thing holding Travis back would be his lack of experience.  Unless he has a knockout spring, that would be the only reason to send him to Buffalo.  And if incumbent Maicer Izturis' rehabbed knee isn't up to the task, the time may be sooner rather than later for Travis.
   Travis lacks one outstanding tool, and that seems to be the hangup for some people.  There's everything in the CV he has compiled to this point to indicate that he will hit.  Maybe not for a batting title, but he will provide some spark to the offence, while playing adequate defence.
   We have to make room for him on this list.  He's almost major league ready.  He's maybe not a multiple WAR guy, but he's not far away from helping this club plug a longstanding hole.

10.  Sean Reid-Foley, rhp
  We've developed a tradition of using this spot for a high ceiling, but far away player.  Like Alford, who we still believe in, but he still has a steep learning curve ahead of him.
   Again, reading over reports this winter, there's a growing consensus that the Blue Jays stole one when they selected Reid-Foley. The Blue Jays may once more have acquired a top level talent without paying a commensurate (relatively speaking) price for it. He did not overwhelm in his first pro season, but you have to look no further than the top 3 players on this list to realize that you can't read much into that.  In the back fields of the Dunedin complex, much goes on in the way of rebuilding swings and overhauling deliveries.  Reid-Foley may have been in the shop for some alterations last summer, and it will be interesting to see where and how he develops this season.  We think prospects like Ryan Borucki and Matt Smoral who are ahead of Reid-Foley in terms of age, experience, and devlopment may be more likely breakthrough candidates this year, but he may ultimately have the highest ceiling.

That's Just Crazy, Buster

   ESPN Baseball Insider Buster Olney suggested in a blog post today that the Baltimore Orioles might be entitled to huge compensation from the Blue Jays if they are successful in hiring current O's GM Dan Duquette.
   Duquette is under contract with the Orioles until 2018.  As a courtesy, most teams will allow an employee under contract to interview for a promotion with another club.  Legally, Olney points out, O's owner Peter Angelos would be within his rights to ask for compensation if Duquette is hired by the Blue Jays.
   We are truly in an era when top baseball executives can have a significant impact on the direction and fortunes of an organization.  "Great baseball executives," writes Olney, "continue to be the most undervalued asset in an industry currently obsessed with identifying value."  He suggests that the return the Red Sox received from the Cubs for the hiring of Theo Epstein (reliever Chris "The Other One" Carpenter), was paltry when compared to the value the Cubs received in the form of Epstein. Adds Olney:

   Think about that: Epstein is regarded as one of the best and brightest minds in baseball and was being pursued for a leadership position with a billion-dollar company, and he was under contract, and all the Red Sox received was a second-tier relief pitcher.

  The history of compensation for signing major league managers and executives is sparse to begin with.  The Blue Jays received infielder Mike Aviles from the Red Sox when they hire John Farrell away from Toronto in 2013.  The Blue Jays then donated Aviles and catcher Yan Gomes to the Indians in return for pitcher Esmil Rogers. When the Cubs and Red Sox could not initially agree on compensation for the signing of Epstein, both sides submitted written proposals to Commissioner Bud Selig, before reaching an agreement in the form of Carpenter.

  Olney suggests the O's could be entitled to one of Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, or Daniel Norris, or a package of top prospects Jeff Hoffman, Max Pentecost, and Richard Urena, in return for agreeing to let Duquette go.

  And with all due respect, that's ridiculous.

  Certainly, the O's should receive more compensation than a middling reliever or slightly above league average middle infielder.  The Blue Jays are a direct competitor, and Duquette not only would bring his vast baseball knowledge to Toronto, he would also be packing a depth of information about O's players both on the 40-man roster, and in their minor league organization.  And it's understandable that Baltimore would aim their sights that high: the Red Sox were reportedly asking for Matt Garza and/or Starlin Castro in return for Epstein, but settled for considerably less.  Still, if the matter of compensation between Toronto and Baltimore could not be agreed upon, the price Olney suggests is far too steep, and could severely limit the movement of executives in the future.
   Duquette would not doubt add value to the Toronto organization.  The Blue Jays players Olney mentions could add tens of millions of dollars to the club's player values.  Given the history of compensation, though, we just can't see it, and even though the Blue Jays have shown that they are not afraid to use top prospects as currency, we find it hard to believe that they would agree to the demands Olney suggests.

   Who would the O's be entitled to?  As we said, they should be compensated above the norm.  To us, though, that means a #11-20 prospect of Toronto's choosing - and even that's a huge price, given the precedent established.  With the Blue Jays on an upward swing in their competitive cycle, it will be hard to measure exactly how much value Duquette would add to the organization.  It won't be as hard to determine the value the players mentioned will have.

Clutchlings Blue Jays Prospects: The Top 10

      We've given a great deal of thought to this year's top prospects list.
  We do like to take our time putting it together, assembling a fair amount of research from a number of credible sources, and our own observations of prospects we have seen in action. We also like for Fall Instructs, the Arizona Fall League, and the first wave of GM meetings to play themselves out before putting a list together.
  This year, unlike any other in recent memory, has been one of the more successful ones in Blue Jays minor league history.  The club's focus on drafting high risk, high reward players starting in 2010, along with a concentration on the international market and drafting players who may have been overlooked because of injury and/or college commitments, is starting to bear fruit.  For the first time, we won't be grasping for names when we compile our list of the 11th to 20th ranked prospects - we actually had a tough time not including some names, and found ourselves making up top 10 and top 20 lists, only to remake them a week later.
   For the first time in several years, the farm system actually graduated players to the major league club who made a more than limited contribution to the team.  Marcus Stroman came up in early May and struggled out of the bullpen.  Sent back to Buffalo to get stretched out as a starter, he came back to the club and quickly became a mainstay in the rotation, posting a record of 3-0, 1.71 ERA with an 0.95 WHIP and .193 Opponents BA in 5 July starts.
   Aaron Sanchez started the year at AA, and was promoted to AAA in June.  Called up to the big club and installed in the bullpen, Sanchez cut down his repertoire of pitches to his fourseamer and sinker and was lights out in relief, posting a tiny 1.09 ERA in 24 appearances.
  On September 1st, when major league rosters expanded, the Blue Jays promoted an incredible 8 minor leaguers.  Even though the club was out of contention, lefthander Daniel Norris and outfielder Dalton Pompey had an impact, and served notice that they were in the running for spots on the 25 man roster when spring training breaks next March.
   A note about qualification for this list before we begin.  A player with more than 90 at bats, or 45 innings pitched, or 45 days on a major league roster before September is no longer to be eligible for rookie of the year voting the following year.  Using that guideline, Marcus Stroman doesn't qualify as a rookie any more, but Aaron Sanchez does, and to us still merits consideration as a prospect.

1.  Daniel Norris
   This was a tough decision, as it came down to Norris or Sanchez.
While Sanchez had a scintillating MLB debut, Norris actually had a far better season as a starting pitcher.
Minor League Baseball's pitcher of the month for May, Norris started the year in High A, and finished it in the majors.  It's been some time since a Blue Jays prospect had as dominant a season.

  Promoted to New Hampshire in June after dominating Florida State League hitters, Norris actually struggled to economize his pitch count, but the Blue Jays brass had seen enough in his last AA start (6.2IP, 5H, 1 R/ER, 0BB, 8K) to challenge him further with a promotion to Buffalo.  And whatever adjustments he had made in that last AA start carried over to Buffalo, where he struck out 32 hitters in 16.2 innings over his first 3 starts.  At that point, having thrown 118 innings for the season (20 more than his career high), it was announced that Norris had made his last start.  With Buffalo in the midst of a playoff race, however, the organization had a change of heart, and let Norris make one last start against the Red Sox Pawtucket affiliate (who the Bisons were chasing for the final playoff spot).  We made the trip to Coca-Cola field to watch the start.  Norris breezed through his first two innings, but suffered a noticeable decline in his fastball velocity, and the Paw Sox hitters knocked him out of the game by the fourth.
  The decline in velocity, of course, was due to bone chips in his pitching elbow, which were removed at season's end.  Norris was part of the massive airlift of prospects who were called up when rosters were expanded on September 1st, and he made his MLB debut four days later.  Called upon to face the Red Sox David Ortiz in a LOOGY situation, Norris got a first pitch strike on a curve, and then five pitches later froze Papi on an inside curve.  The ironic part of this story is that there was a bit of a language barrier problem between Norris and Dionner Navarro.  In a quick chat before he started his warm up pitches, a pumped-up Norris told Navarro that he preferred to go with fastballs because he felt he didn't have the feel for a curve, only to have Navarro put two fingers down for his first pitch.
   Norris was the Blue Jays 2nd round pick in 2011, but signed for the 20th highest bonus, largely thanks to the club's inability to sign first round pick Tyler Beede.  Regarded by some as the best prep lefthander in the draft that year, he became the first high school lefty from his draft class to reach the majors.
   Norris' first year and a half in pro ball was a bit of a disaster, as the club had altered his delivery, and he showed a reluctance to rely on his fastball.  After getting pounded in an early May start at Lansing last year, Norris and pitching coach Vince Horsman had a heart-to-heart, and Norris began to use his fastball more, which only improved the effectiveness of his secondary pitches once his command improved.  Since June of last year, he has struck out 213 batters in 176 IP.
   Norris posted the highest strikeout rate in all of minor league baseball (11.8/9) this year - his K rate actually improved at every minor league step up the ladder this year:

 

Fangraphs

    Norris experienced an uptick in velocity this year, usually sitting between 91 and 95 with his fastball, touching 97.  His slider has plus potential, as does his change up.  Norris throws with an upright delivery, ha smooth mechanics toward the plate that gives him good downhill plane on his pitches, and usually leaves him in a good fielding position after he completes his windup.

   Norris, to some extent, came out of nowhere this year.  He went from being nowhere near anyone's top 100 Milb prospects to leaping into the top 10.  We've had our eye on him since his transformation mid-season last year, but even we didn't think he would make a leap of this significance this season.  He may start the season in Buffalo, but it's only a matter of time before Norris established himself at least in the middle of the Blue Jays rotation.

ETA:  2015 Mid Season

Projection: #2/#3 starter

Worst Case Scenario:  8th inning bullpen guy

2.  Aaron Sanchez

   There were some who thought the Blue Jays had made a huge mistake when they took Sanchez with the 34th pick of the 2010 draft.  A tall, lanky, and gangly specimen, there were some who thought that Sanchez would always be overvalued because of his size.  The Blue Jays brought Sanchez along slowly, putting him through two seasons of rookie and short season ball before his first full season with Lansing.  Command issues plagued him almost from the outset. Last year at Dunedin, the whispers about Sanchez having command issues and not being quite the sum of all his parts began to grow.  By the time the Arizona Fall League rolled around, the Sanchez bandwagon had become noticeably lighter.  Here's a comment we had from a reader a little over a year ago:

   Funny how tendencies have a habit of sticking around. I saw Sanchez pitch as a high school prospect in the 2009 Tournament of Stars in Cary, NC. While he had that easy delivery and good velo that earned him more than his share of excitement from the scouting community, I came away with a 'what the hell am I missing here' impression. His lack of command and inability to repeat pitches stood out like a sore thumb. His results weren't bad, given the unrefined tendencies of high school batters to swing at high-velo or high-movement pitches that aren't strikes. But still, I thought he was a project, and it raised my eyebrows when he went in the first round with an almost-$800K bonus. You never know when a player can blow up, but following my own son's progress to pro ball made it glaringly obvious that for a group of professionals whose sole job it is to evaluate talent, scouts just get it wrong with their projectability assessments way more often than they get it right (in both directions!). To me at the time, Sanchez should have been more like a 3rd-to-5th round sign. His lingering tendencies have produced results that have proven that so far. I do hope for his sake that he has a serendipitous encounter with some pitching coach who is able to spot that as-yet unknown little fault in his delivery and turn his fortunes around

 This did not deter the Blue Jays, nor Sanchez.  Some of his struggles may have been to the organization tinkering with his delivery, having him land in a more upright position, and due to his experimenting with a sinker.
   Fast forward to 2014.  Sanchez opened the season at AA, and even though the results were somewhat mixed (40BB in 66IP), the club challenged him, in what would become a system-wide trend,  with a promotion to Buffalo.  Sanchez demonstrated better control after a half dozen AAA starts, when they put him on the next path of his development, sending him to the bullpen.  Two relief outings later, Sanchez found himself in an MLB bullpen, tossing a pair of scoreless relief innings against the Red Sox.
   Sanchez was barely hittable for the rest of the season, filling a huge set-up role void in the Toronto bullpen, and posting a miniscule 1.09 ERA in 33 innings, with a ridiculous 0.70 WHIP.  The main reason for Sanchez's success was the club paring down his repertoire of pitches:

Brooks Baseball

   Not having to worry about getting hitters out a second time through the order, Sanchez could use his fastball, which seems to explode on batters from his easy-effort delivery to induce swings and misses, or weak, groundball contact.  He consistently sat between 93 and 95 with his fastball, and touched 97 with it.  Sanchez gets plenty of extension from his delivery,   His curve has been described as major league ready since he was in A ball, and his change improved this season.

   The Blue Jays appear to have a tough decision on their hands with Sanchez:  keep him in the bullpen, where he's been successful, or let him vie for a spot in the starting rotation, where he has not met with as much success.  For the time being, the club appears to be willing to let him compete for a starting job in spring training.  

ETA:  2015

Projection: #2/#3 starter

Worst Case Scenario:  late innings bullpen guy

3.  Dalton Pompey

  The Blue Jays took a flyer on Pompey in the 16th round of the 2010 draft.  The Mississauga HS product was described as toolsy, but incredibly raw.

   His development over the course of his first three pro seasons was very slow and unremarkable.  A hand injury limited his playing time in 2012, and his first year of full season ball at Lansing was fairly nondescript, until he caught fire in the final weeks of the season, 

   He carried that hot finish over to the 2014 season, hitting .319/.397/.491 with 29 stolen bases in a little over two months of play in the Florida State League.  Promoted to AA, where pitchers have a plan, and don't rely just on their ability to blow the ball by hitters, Pompey needed a week to figure things out, and began raking once more, earning a trip to the Futures Game.  His storybook season didn't end there, however, as he joined Buffalo in August and was a sparkplug at the top of their batting order during the Bisons' playoff push.  Pompey's season culminated in a call up to the Blue Jays on September 1st, and his 4-4 game with a pair of triples late in the season against Baltimore capped off his rise through four levels of play.  Likely a little worn out from his longest season, Pompey's numbers were a little less than expected against the elite caliber of competition in the Arizona Fall League, but he was named one of the loop's Top 10 Prospects after play ended last week.

   Pompey's breakout year was well worth the wait.  An Milb Gold Glove winner, Pompey has gap-closing speed in the outfield that profiles as a centrefielder, and a plus arm that could play right.  The switch-hitter likes to lay down drag bunts, especially on the left side, and is incredibly quick out of the box.  He has shown both power and patience, drawing walks at an above average rate.  He is also a smart baserunner who uses his speed effectively and wisely on the bases.

   He may start the season in Buffalo, but Pompey has the makings of a first division major leaguer.  He outperformed projections for him last year, and because he is still developing, he may outperform them again this year, even though that would be a tough act to follow.

ETA:  Mid 2015

Projection:  Lead Off Sparkplug Centrefielder

Worst Case Scenario:  Platoon corner outfielder

4.  Franklin Barreto

  Barreto was part of an impressive haul of international shortstops the Blue Jays signed in 2012 (along with Dawel Lugo, who played at Lansing this year, and Richard Urena).  A fabled youth player, all Barreto has done since his pro debut is hit.  Brought stateside for rookie ball last year, Barreto was dominant in the Northwest League this year, at the tender age of 18, in a league filled mostly with college grads.

  Hitting third in Vancouver's batting order, Barreto led the NWL in Games, Runs, Hits, Doubles, RBIs, and Total Bases, and was the league's MVP.  He was also named Baseball America's Short Season Player of the Year.

   Barreto barrels up balls to all fields:

MLBfarm.com

   At 5'9", Barreto has a strong, compact build.  He has plus speed, and profiles as a middle of the order, impact bat.  Like many young players, he still can chase breaking balls out of the strike zone, but there is every indication that a player of his athletic intelligence will ultimately figure that part of the game out.

   The only concerns about Barreto involve his defence.  He committed 26 errors at short for Vancouver, many of them on the back end of double play balls.  His footwork can be awkward, and he doesn't always show great arm strength on long throws from the hole.  Still, he has the type of fast-twitch skills that the Blue Jays covet, and while he may end up at second base or centrefield, the Blue Jays are content to let him stay at the position at Lansing next season, basically until he plays himself out of it.

  Wherever he winds up on the diamond, Barreto's bat will play.  The  It will be no surprise to us if he tops this list next season.  

ETA:  late 2017
Projection:  Middle of the lineup hitter, up the middle defender
Worst Case Scenario:  decent bat, corner outfielder

5.  Roberto Osuna

   The Blue Jays signed  Osuna out of Mexico for $1.5 million in 2011. Already something of a prodigy, the 15 year old Osuna was throwing in the 90s, and pitching in the Mexican League at the time.  He made his stateside debut in 2012, and is still talked about with reverence by Vancouverites for a start he made as a 17 year old in 2012 where he struck out 13 of the 19 hitters he faced.

   Osuna made his full season debut with Lansing last year, and was continuing his steady climb up the prospect charts until he was sidelined with a torn UCL in May, which required Tommy John to repair in July.

   He didn't make his return to competition until July of this year, and pitched for Dunedin in August.  The results, as one would expect, were less than stellar, as Osuna was struggling to regain his velocity and control (although he did have a 12.3K/9 rate in 30 IP).  

  Sent to Arizona to both get some extra work and face some tough competition, Osuna still has yet to post the numbers that he did prior to his surgery.  At 19, there's not a lot to worry about, however.  He did have his velocity back up to between 91 and 93, and touched 95.

  What keeps Osuna near the top of our list is what has been called his advanced feel for pitching.  His innings have been carefully monitored this year, but the bubble wrap will start to come off next year, when he likely will be pitching at New Hampshire.

   Osuna's top secondary pitch is a changeup, which is rated plus.  He caught too much of the strike zone at times in Arizona, and paid for it against hitters who can easily jump on such mistakes.  His fastball can lack movement at times, and the organization is working on altering his delivery to correct it.

   Prior to his surgery, Osuna's body was characterized as high maintenance.  Meaning, to put it blunty, he was chubby.  Both our observations of him in Arizona and reports we have read indicate that he has slimmed down, and appears to be paying more attention to his diet and conditioning.

ETA:  mid 2016
Projection:  #3/#4 starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Set up bullpen guy

6. Jeff Hoffman
   Hoffman has forced us to re-write our list numerous times.
The Blue Jays apparently have had their eye on Hoffman for some time.  Seen as talented but very undeveloped coming out of high school in upstate New York, Hoffman pitched for three years at East Carolina.
  Pitching out of the bullpen as a freshman, he hit 95 with his fastball.  He made what would be his last collegiate start on April 17th of last year, striking out 16.  A game in which he threw 117 pitches.  He felt some discomfort in his elbow late in the start, but told his pitching coach he was ok to continue.  The discomfort, of course didn't go away, and Hoffman underwent Tommy John in early May.
   The Blue Jays had followed Hoffman's every start this year, and were not put off by the surgery, and made Hoffman, who had been projected by many to be a top five, maybe even top three pick, the ninth pick overall, and signed him for a bonus of just over $3 million.
   Hoffman has been described as a premium athlete.  At 6'4", 190, he has the ideal body size and composition for the club - long, lean, and projectable.  His fastball sits 91-95 (his final inning this spring had him at 94-95), and touches 97, with arm side run  and heavy sinking action that generates plenty of weak contact.  He gets great extension with his delivery, and like Sanchez, the ball seems to explode out of his hand.  His curve is projected as plus, and his change and slider developed noticeably last year.  With his athleticism, Hoffman is a premium defender.

   Tommy John, of course, throws this all into question, even though it's becoming almost a rite of passage for young pitchers, and like any surgery that is repeated, the procedure is becoming increasingly successful.
All indications are that his recovery has gone well, and if it continues to do so, he should see game action sometime in May.  His pitch count will be strictly monitored, of course, which will also limit his progress this year.  Most pitchers (Osuna included) get most of their velocity back quickly after returning to competition, but command (see Kyle Drabek) can take longer to come back.
   Hoffman is projected as a front of the rotation starter, and if not for the surgery might have found himself in the major league rotation next year.  All indications are that the Blue Jays got a top three pick for a (comparatively) bargain price.  His progress now will be delayed.  We had difficulty including Hoffman on our original list as a result, but our research indicates his ceiling is so high that we couldn't relegate him to the second tier list.  The Blue Jays have once again rolled the dice.

ETA: mid 2016
Projection: front of the rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario: back of the rotation starter

7.  Richard Urena
 The 6"1" 170 Urena was part of that trio of talented international package of shortstops the Blue Jays signed in 2011, and he is the most likely to stick at the position.
   His defence has been labelled major league ready, although the 19 errors (many of the mental variety) he committed at Bluefield have us wondering if that's the case.
  Urena has those quick-twitch movements that create good reaction to batted balls, and has soft hands, a quick release, and a plus arm.   
   Urena is a natural lefthanded hitter, but took up switch-hitting this year, and reports are that he was successful at it.  He has above average bat speed, and is learning to barrel up the ball.  His power projects as below average, but he does profile as a gap hitter, with plenty of potential for doubles.
  At 18 (he's a day younger than Barreto), Urena spent most of last year in the Appy League, and was called up to Vancouver late in the season to help the C's playoff drive.  Interestingly, he did not supplant Barreto at short, playing second and third in his short NWL stint.  He's ready for a full season assignment, however, and the organization will have a huge decision on its hands this spring as the drama plays out on the back fields of Dunedin.  Will Urena play short at Lansing, with Barreto moving over to second?  The club appears determined to let the latter play himself out of the position, but the time may be right for the move.  Maybe the Blue Jays have their own Trammell-Whitaker combo in the making.

ETA:  late 2017/early 2018
Projection:  #2 hitter, everyday shortstop
Worst Case Scenario:  utility player

8.  Miguel Castro
   If you've read any posts on this blog (including this one), it's obvious that the Blue Jays have an overwhelming preference for a certain type of pitcher when they scout the high school, college, and international ranks. They like them tall (in order to create a downhill plane on their pitches, which can be harder for a hitter to track), lean (that is, not of a high-maintenance body type), and athletic (in order to be able to repeat their deliveries, especially if they have to have their mechanics altered).
   Sometimes the Blue Jays scouting staff colour outside the lines and draft a Marcus Stroman (who is all of the above, except for tall), but otherwise they have stayed rigidly with that guideline.
   And Miguel Castro fits that guideline to a tee 
Castro was a bargain ($180K) signing in 2011.  After dominating the Dominican Summer League in 2012, his stateside debut last year was delayed due to visa problems, limiting him to 30 innings.   He has more than made up for lost time this year, pitching at three levels, and finishing the year with Dunedin.
   Castro's fastball sits in the mid 90s, and touches 99.  His three quarters delivery gives his fastball plenty of arm side run, and a sinking action that generates plenty of groundball contact - essential for a player who may one day pitch in the Rogers Centre.  
   Secondary pitches are the issue for Castro.  His change is his best offering of that group at the moment, with his slider being more of a slurve.  When you throw as hard as he does, however, it makes the secondary pitches less important for now, although he will need more of an arsenal to throw at hitters as he makes his way up the ladder.
  We watched Castro's August 20th start for Lansing on milb.tv, when he threw a 7 inning, 3 hit, shutout gem, his longest stint as a pro.  He was never in trouble until his final inning, but worked his way out of a jam to cap off an impressive performance that proved to be his last at that level.
   BA has projected Castro to be a reliever at the major league level.  Developing a breaking pitch will likely be a priority for him this year.

ETA: late 2016
Projection: mid rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario:  late inning bullpen arm

9.  Kendall Graveman
   A year ago, Graveman, who the Jays took in the eighth round of 2013, was nowhere near anyone's top prospect list.  Lost somewhat in the shadow of Pompey and Norris, he had a season that was simply lights out.
   Graveman started the year at Lansing, and ended it in Toronto, pitching at five levels.  Drafted as a sinker control artist, Graveman added velocity this year as a result of the famed weighted ball program he used during the off-season.
   Promoted to Dunedin in May, Graveman began to experiment with a new grip on his fastball, which resulted in a four seamer that he could cut against right and left handed hitters.  The result was plenty of groundball contact:


   

   Graveman was promoted to New Hampshire in late July, and was elevated to Buffalo after only one start, and made a half dozen excellent starts as part of the Bisons' torrid stretch run.  On the year, Graveman was 14-6 with a 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 27 starts.  Graveman repeats his delivery, and fields his position well.  He, too, caused a number of re-writes of this list.  Graveman may not have the ceiling of Daniel Norris, but he may the most major league-ready player on this list outside of Aaron Sanchez.  Graveman profiles as a back of the rotation innings eater whose path to the bigs may be blocked at the moment, but he would be in the running for a spot on the 25 man roster next spring if the Blue Jays make rumoured deals involving Mark Buerhle and/or JA Happ.

ETA:  2015
Projection:  Back of the rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario:  front of the bullpen guy
10.  Anthony Alford
   
  During the JP Ricciardi era, the Blue Jays deservedly gained a reputation as a club that was primarily interested in using their early picks to draft close to MLB-ready and signable college players.  The club viewed high school players as risky, and with college as an option, their bonus demands would not fit inside ownerships' tight salary demands.
   During the years JP was at the helm, the Blue Jays draftees amassed all of 89.8  WAR (over a third of it by Shaun Marcum and Aaron Hill), putting them in the lowest tier of all MLB clubs.  There are no guarantees in the draft, especially when selecting HS school players who may be years away, but here is a sample of prep players the Blue Jays passed on in the first round over the years.

2001   David Wright
2002   Matt Cain/Scott Kazmir/Cole Hamels
2004   Gio Gonzalez
2005   Andrew McCutchen
2007   Rick Porcello
2009   Mike Trout (in fairness, 24 other teams passed on him, too)

 The only HS grad the Blue Jays took during Ricciardi's reign was Kevin Ahrens in 2007, who has played only 73 games above High A in 8 minor league seasons, and is no longer with the organization.
   The result of this policy was a depth of prospects that doomed the franchise to second division status for most of the decade.
   In 2010, that draft strategy changed, under the new stewardship of scouting director Andrew Tinnish and GM Alex Anthopolous.  The club followed the new way of thinking that believed that college grads sometimes came to the pros with bad fundamentals, and/or as damaged goods, especially pitchers.  Tinnish and Anthopolous went further, looking specifically for high risk/high reward athletes that might take longer to develop, and the scouting community had shied away from.  They looked in places few scouts had bothered to spend much time in before, including Mississippi.
   Mississippi is hardly a hot bed of high school baseball.  Teams prefer to see how top prep players from the state fare against collegiate competition before making a commitment - Hunter Renfroe was a first round pick last year, but was taken in the 19th round as a HS senior.
   There are several reasons why the state is something of a scouting backwater.  First of all, football is king in the state.  Kids in Mississippi dream of growing up to play in the SEC, and many take the junior college route to get there.  Even if they show some promise on the diamond, most top two-sport players are under immense pressure to choose football.  Petal is a town of just over 10 000 in southern Mississippi, near Hattiesburg.  Take a look at Petal High's football stadium:

  
   

   Granted, the Americans place a higher priority on building athletic facilities than we do here in the land of free medical care for all, but Petal's stadium complex is bigger than many Canadian universities'.    
   The poverty rate in the state is the nation's highest, according to the last census.  Travel ball, select teams, and showcase events are out of the reach financially for all but a few kids.  Mississippi also has a highly rural population, with less competition between schools.  Most major cities in the country have more 5A schools than the entire state has.  In an article about high school prospects in the state by BA's John Manuel, one scout compared the obstacles Mississippi prospects face with the transition from a slow pace, rural lifestyle to the bus rides and grinder mentality with what young players from the Dominican are presented with.  
    The Blue Jays bucked the traditional views of scouting in the state in the spring of 2012, and came away with a pair of high schoolers who came with the toolsy-but-raw tag.  DJ Davis was touted as a potential five-tool player, and the Blue Jays took him with the 17th pick of the first round.  Named a top 20 league prospect in his first two short seasons, Davis struggled mightily at the plate in his first go at full season ball this year, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances.
   With their third round pick that year, the Blue Jays chose Petal outfielder Anthony Alford, who was a two-time Gatorade state football player of the year.  As late as April that year, Alford was telling MLB teams not to bother drafting him, as he was intent on playing football and baseball at Southern Mississippi.
   And, again, if you have read other posts on this blog, you know how that worked out. He was described by many as a third round pick with first round talent.
   We won't recount the long and winding road that led Alford, after the Blue Jays had tried to extend his contract and convince him to give up football this summer, to suddenly quit the Ole Miss program and accept the Jays offer in late September (but we encourage you to look it up on our blog if you don't know the story).
   The long and short of it is that Alford, at the tender age of 20, has been through a great deal, and now finds himself and his young bride on the other side of the world, taking a crash course in pitch recognition in the Australian Baseball League.  
  Alford has caused us to rewrite this list more than any other prospect on it.  He is the best athlete in the system, as well as possibly the fastest, and in our viewing of him on ABL tv, has shown great instincts on the basepaths and in the outfield.  At the same time, he's shown how far away he truly is.  In his first few weeks of ABL play, he has shown developing patience, but has chased a lot of off speed pitches out of the zone.  In his early at bats, he appeared to be going up to the plate and hacking, but at least he's now seeing more pitches, and appears to have a plan.  Many of the pitchers in the ABL are the crafty veteran types many years his senior, and it's likely he hasn't seen breaking balls of this quality yet in his career.  Alford has a short, quick swing, and in his brief pro career has barreled up the ball to all fields.  His speed on the bases is a legitimate distraction for the opposition.  
   Alford will need time to mature.  Dreams of seeing him patrolling the Rogers Centre carpet next year have changed now to seeing him there in 2016 or even 2017.  He has played so little (less than 100 ABs in three seasons) that we have to give him time to make up for that lost development.  He just has so much talent that we couldn't leave him off of this list.

ETA:  2017
Projection:  lead off hitter, centrefielder, base stealing king
Worst Case Scenario:  fourth outfielder