Clutchlings Notebook Vol 4 Ed 2

Tim Mayza - Clutchlings photo

 Another wrap of the goings on in the Blue Jays minor league system for the past week.

Is he or isn't he hurt?
   I wrote last week that top prospect Anthony Alford was injured in a home-plate collision in Dunedin's first game, and that to eyewitnesses the injury did not appear to be all that serious.
   Our first clue that something wasn't right with the prized outfielder came a few days after, when he was placed on the 7-day Disabled List.  Word started to leak out through social media that the injury was more serious than had been first reported.
   D-Jays broadcaster Spence Siegel (@SpenceSiegel) reported on Jesse Goldberg-Strassler's weekly review of the Blue Jays organization "Around the Nest" that the club was seeking a "second opinion," on Alford.  Shi Davidi of Sportsnet divulged a few days later that Alford had undergone ACL surgery in high school, and that the home plate injury may have been knee-related.
   The incident illustrates one of the frustrations of writing about minor league baseball. Injuries are treated like state secrets by teams, and it's hard to fathom just why that is.  Certainly, prospects are always under consideration as currency for trades to upgrade the major league team, so perhaps there's some need to keep that information under wraps, although it's hard in this day and age to think that a team could successfully keep that from the public for any length of time.  Those of us who follow the progress of prospects from afar find it frustrating when a player we've watched for several years basically disappears from the radar, with nary a word about it.
   Emails to several club officials when unanswered, and an inquiry to the D-Jays led to a vague response.  Some of my Twitter followers said that they contacted Alford through social media - this is a route I prefer not to take, because sometimes the prospects are the lowest links on the food chain in these situations, and I would rather not get them into difficulties with the organization.
   Davidi went on to say in his article that the club prefers that Alford rehab his knee, rather than opt for surgery, which is not uncommon for the team in situations where the tear of the ligament in question is not complete.  When Roberto Osuna had a slight tear of his UCL early in 2013, they opted for an ultimately unsuccessful regimen of rest, rehab, and PRP therapy to try to mend the injury.
   So, reading between the lines, we can surmise that the injury to Alford is serious enough to keep him out of the lineup, but not sufficient to undergo surgery (at least in the club's medical staff's opinion).  Either way, it's looking more and more like a lengthy absence for the speedy Mississippian.

The Dunedin Bullpen
   The D-Jays are off to a great start, thanks to a bullpen that gave up only 5 runs over 43 innings through their first 8 games.  It truly is one of the deepest pens in the system, featuring arms lik Adonys Cardona, converted OF Carlos Ramirez, Matt Dermody, Tim Mayza, Jose Fernandez, Alonzo Gonzalez, and Chris Rowley.  There's a good balance between left and right handers in this mix, and if Dunedin starters can make it to the 5th inning with a lead, there's a good chance that this group will preserve the win.   There may not be a lot of value in relievers at the lower levels of the minors, but this could prove to be one of the better groups this team has had in the bullpen at High A in some time.
    Command may be an issue from time to time, as the bullpen issued 14 walks over 5 innings on Sunday.



Jordan Romano Update
   The Markham native missed all of last year as a result of Tommy John surgery.  The 10th round pick out of Oral Roberts in 2014 has been pitching in extended spring training, and reports that he's hit 95 with his fastball, and is sitting 92-94 in his return.  He was pleasantly surprised by his command, as well, noting, "Honestly everything is back to normal. Thrown 4 innings, and issued 1 walk."
   Romano struck out almost 12 batters per 9 innings pitching out of Bluefield's pen in 2014, limiting Appy League hitters to a .209 average.  He is getting closer to returning to game action, but it will be interesting to see where he lands this season.  The organization's preference is to keep rehabbing prospects in Dunedin, but there may not be space for him.  Romano may start in the GCL, then quickly move to Vancouver.
   Another good arm for an organization that is stockpiling them at the lower levels.

Kevin Pillar and Pitch Recognition
   I'm straying from my usual focus in writing about a Major Leaguer, but I've always been a huge fan of Pillar's.
    Lightly recruited in high school, Pillar attended Division 2 Cal State Dominguez, where his high school baseball coach had landed as job as an assistant coach.  The gritty Pillar knew only one way to play the game, according to an article in the L.A. Daily News - full out:

“We had a saying: ‘Game Speed,’ ” said Murphy Su’a, then the Toros’ baseball coach. “That’s the way we wanted to do everything. Kevin was at the forefront of that.” 

   Pillar broke his foot in his sophomore year.  In batting practice, when he collided with the centerfield wall.  And he didn't leave the field.

   Much of the rest of Pillar's history is well known:  an NCAA record 54-game hitting streak in his junior year still didn't garner much attention, and he lasted until the 32nd round of the 2011 draft.
Sent to Bluefield to start his pro career,  Pillar won the Appalachian League batting title in 2011.  Just wait until he gets to the next level, some said - his limitations will be exposed.  Skipping Vancouver, Pillar spent only a half season with Lansing in 2012, but observers there saw enough to name him the Midwest League's MVP.  Still, the best projection most evaluators could bestow on him was, "overachieving, Reed Johnson-type fourth outfielder."

   Despite the detractors, Pillar made his MLB debut in 2013, and played a vital role in the ending the Blue Jays' 22-year playoff drought in 2015.  He got to the majors to stay through a combination of athleticism, high baseball IQ, and a never-say-die attitude.
   That aggressiveness, of course, can be a mixed blessing.  On the one hand, it allows Pillar to make incredible, highlight-reel catches.  On the other, perhaps because he's had to fight for pretty much everything he's accomplished in baseball, Pillar is not content to be a patient pitch hunter.  As a result, he tends to put himself in pitcher's counts.  His average exit velocity ranked 715th among all MLB players last year, and only 5 players swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone last year.  Those two facts don't add up to being in a hitter's count much of the time.
   Pillar's walk rates have consistently hovered at around 5% throughout his time in the minors and the majors.  He's a volume hitter, however - he could post higher OBP and batting averages in minor league baseball, because the pitchers there lacked command, and Pillar could sit back and wait to hammer the occasional cookie delivered into his wheelhouse.  At the major league level, where pitchers can command their arsenal of pitches better, Pillar's aggressiveness at the plate has been something of an impediment.
   Manager John Gibbons showed great faith in placing Pillar atop the Blue Jays batting order this season, but that faith was not rewarded.  Pillar suggested to the Toronto media that his pitch selection might be improved in the leadoff role, but such has proven not to be the case over the first half month of the season.  And maybe it wasn't fair to put him in that role - not just because analytics suggest that a player with his skill set would be better suited to the bottom of the order, where his speed could be more of a factor in putting him in scoring position ahead of a singles hitter like Ryan Goins, but also because for years, Pillar has known only one approach at the plate:  see the ball, hit the ball - put the ball in play, and make the defence get him out.   It may be too late for him to drastically change that.  Just as a generation of Dominican prospects grew up with the mantra, "you can\t walk your way off the island," the same may have held true for Pillar's generation of D2 players.

   If you felt so obliged, you can enter your email address near the top of this page to receive these and other Blue Jays prospect updates without having to search for them.  Later this week, I'll be posting about RHP Jeremy Gabryszwski, who is pitching for New Hampshire this year.  Never considered a top prospect, he gives up contact, but has managed to get hitters out at every level.  For daily updates about all things Blue Jays prospects, follow me on Twitter:  @Clutchlings77.

Conner Greene Offers a Glimpse of the Future

Rocket Sports photo

  

Righthander Conner Greene made his spring training MLB debut on Saturday, striking out 3 of the 4 batters he faced in a one-inning relief stint against the Phillies.

  If there has been a constant in terms of player development and drafting during the reign for former GM Alex Anthopoulos, it has been that of the tall, lean, and athletic high school pitcher.  Greene, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Daniel Norris, and Jon Harris are just a few of that type of pitcher acquired during the Anthopoulos era.  Certainly, they were able to step outside of that box to sign a Roberto Osuna and draft a Marcus Stroman, because the organization values projection above all else.
  When push has come to shove, however, the tall pitcher (who can change a batter's view of a pitch, possibly forcing him to lose the ability to track it thanks to its downward plane), who is lean (to better withstand the rigours of pitching 175-200 innings), and athletic (in order to consistently repeat his delivery and field his position) is what the Blue Jays coveted.
   Greene fits that profile to a T.  The Californian was drafted in the 7th round of 2013, and didn't make his full-season debut until last year - and what a debut it was, as Greene pitched well at 3 levels.  Hitting his innings limit meant that he wasn't sent to the Arizona Fall League for some extra reps against elite competition.
 
   In his inning of work, Greene did not face any legit MLB bats, but he worked well down in the zone, hitting 98 with his fastball at one point.  He went up against Nick Williams, the Phillies' 4th-ranked prospect, as well as journeymen Emmanuel Burriss and J.P. Arencibia, and non-prospect Ryan Jackson.  Greene walked Arencibia, and showed that his changeup may still need some refining, as the former Jay tomahawked one into the left field stands.   That was the only loud contact Greene gave up though, which is more in keeping with his projection as a ground ball machine. Striking out the side was a bit out of character - even though Greene struggles with his command from time to time, he's often only a pitch away from getting an inning-ending double play ball.

  I know that I can be rough on Blue Jays TV analyst Buck Martinez, who often appears to be spouting off whatever research his producers gave him, but he offered some good insights into Greene during the broadcast.  Martinez mentioned how Greene played all nine positions on his high school team, and described his athleticism as he watched Greene kick a soccer ball around before the game with Jose Bautista.  As a former Catcher, Buck can probably identify a good pitching prospect as well as anyone, and it was obvious that he sees one in Greene.


  How about some GIFs of Greene's performance?
His strikeout of Williams:

 A.J. Jimenez frames a strike beautifully against Arencibia:

The change that Arencibia was early on:

   Greene finished his season at New Hampshire, and with the veteran starting rotation that has been assembled at Buffalo, it's likely he returns to New England to begin this season. His development last year was no doubt accelerated by the trading spree Anthopoulos went on last July, but he still may have finished up at AA given his success in High A.
    That mid-rotation starter ceiling is looking more and more likely, although Greene still has a few things to work on, namely command of his secondaries like that change.  Against more discerning MLB hitters, that change he left out over the plate against Arencibia might have been hit to Kissimmee.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week#4: Moving Day

  In the best case scenario, MLB farm departments like to give players at least two months of play to start the season at a level before they make a decision as to whether some players need to move on to the next level, or stay where they're at.  Sometimes, injuries and/or inconsistency at the top of the organization (that is, the major league team) can have a huge influence on this plan.

   This past weekend, it was almost dizzying to see how many roster moves were made as the Blue Jays had to overcome the placing of Jose Reyes on the 15-day Disabled List.  Jonathan Diaz was called up from Buffalo to take his place, which immediately left Buffalo a middle infielder short, so Kevin Nolan got the call in New Hampshire to come up and take his place.  Moving up from Dunedin to New Hampshire were Christian Lopes and Emilio Guerrero to provide some middle infield help.  Lopes was off to a slow start - he had a monster second half of the season in Australia this winter, until a hamstring injury ended his season and sent him home in time to heal for spring training.
  Another promotion to New Hampshire of note was that of  Tiago da Silva, the much traveled Brazilian reliever.
   Those moves all came on Friday.  On Saturday, with Scott Copeland recalled from Buffalo to make his MLB debut, Casey Lawrence was promoted from New Hampshire to the Bisons to take his place.  If Ryan Schimpf was moved up as well.  IF Dickie Joe Thon and P Justin Shafer were promoted from Lansing to Dunedin to shore up their roster.

     ************************************************************************

   Much has been made this weekend over the demotions of Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey, and Miguel Castro.  They would not be the first rookies to ever struggle and need further time in the minors - that's part of the reason teams get three option years on players new to the 40-man roster.
I thought it would be worth a quick look to see exactly why all three had their difficulties this month.

Norris
Daniel Norris had a solid spring training, and while the injury to Marcus Stroman threw a monkey wrench into the team's pitching staff plans, Norris may have made the team as the 5th starter despite Stroman tearing up his knee.
Norris complained of going through a dead arm stretch in the middle of the month, but overall his velocity held firm between 91 and 93:

Brooksbaseball.net graph

    His last start against the Indians, when he was lifted after throwing 78 pitches in 3 innings, shows that he really didn't trust his changeup or sinker, and almost half of the pitches he threw were fastballs, which hitters mashed at a .407 clip.  Accompanying the increase in fourseam usage was quite a bump in the use of his slider, which he has had more success with.  Norris recorded only 3 swinging strikes in the Cleveland game, none with his fastball or sinker.  

   Is something physically wrong with Norris?  An MRI performed on April 21 revealed no structural damage to his elbow.  It is worth noting that Norris had bone chips removed from his left elbow after last season, and he was shut down for a month in 2013 as a precaution.  He also admits to having gone through a dead arm phase last season (he did get dinged in a couple of early July starts at AA), and the stress of spring training may have worn him out a bit:

“My workload in spring training was — I was working really hard, trying to make this team and maybe that’s catching up to me a little bit right now, but I think I’m on the tail end of it. I’m feeling better,” 

  Whatever the case is, Norris is not the dominant pitcher who raced through four levels last year. Time in Buffalo may be necessary for him to re-discover himself in a less pressure-filled environment.  He makes his first start for the Bisons on Wednesday.

Pompey

   The GTA product struggled on both sides of the ball this month.  His difficulties at the plate weren't all that surprising, but his troubles in the field were.  He misjudged some fly balls, and took curious routes on others.  The former Minor League gold glove winner was supposed to be more dependable than that.  That, coupled with his .193/.264/.337 line caused the Blue Jays to send him to Buffalo for some time to re-group.

  Quite simply, Pompey is way better than what he has shown.  He may have been pressing too much, especially during the 10 game home stand, when he likely was inundated with interview and ticket requests, and didn't have enough time to prepare and focus on baseball.
  Again, injuries may have forced the issue here.  Michael Saunders knee surgery meant a temporary halt to what likely would have been a platoon between Pompey and Kevin Pillar.  Instead, Pompey was thrown into the deep end, and when he lost his centerfield spot to Pillar, he no doubt took his fielding woes to the plate, and vice-versa.

  Pompey will be back.  

Castro

   His inclusion on the Jays roster was perhaps the biggest surprise of all coming out of spring training.  Castro simply made it impossible for the Blue Jays to send him down, and given that hey showed a distaste for crop of available free agent relievers, that may have been their hope all along.

His performance over his last ten outings has been spotty:

DATE     OPP                            W            L              ERA        SV           IP            H             ER           BB           SO

04/12/2015         @BAL    0              0              0.00        1              1.0          1              0              1              0

04/14/2015         TB           0              1              0.00        0              1.1          2              0              1              2

04/17/2015         ATL         0              0              0.00        0              1.0          0              0              1              0

04/18/2015         ATL         0              0              1.23        0              1.0          2              1              0              1

04/22/2015         BAL        0              0              1.04        1              1.1          1              0              1              1

04/23/2015         BAL        0              0              1.93        1              0.2          1              1              0              1

04/25/2015         @TB       0              0              2.79        0              0.1          2              1              0              0

04/27/2015         @BOS   0               1               3.60        0              0.1          3              1              0              1

05/01/2015         @CLE     0              0              3.27        0              1.0          1              0              0              2

05/03/2015         @CLE     0              0              4.38        0              1.1          2              2              2              2

TOTALS                                  0              2              5.79        3              9.1          15           6              6              10

 I  had originally thought that Castro's troubles might have resulted from wearing down as a result of overuse in high leverage situations, but his velocity has been fairly consistent:

                                             Game                           Fourseam     Sinker   Change Slider

TOR@NYA (4/6/15)         97.50     97.94     86.31     82.20

TOR@NYA (4/8/15)         97.08     0.00        89.32     0.00

TOR@NYA (4/9/15)         97.18     0.00        91.21     83.79

TOR@BAL (4/12/15)        97.19     0.00        88.87     82.37

TBA@TOR (4/14/15)       98.08     0.00        0.00        83.66

ATL@TOR (4/17/15)        98.73     0.00        89.92     82.58

ATL@TOR (4/18/15)        97.11     97.45     87.56     83.84

BAL@TOR (4/22/15)        97.40     0.00        86.16     84.81

BAL@TOR (4/23/15)        96.01     0.00        0.00        81.97

TOR@TBA (4/25/15)       95.63     0.00        84.96     81.02

TOR@BOS (4/27/15)       96.89     96.84     88.16     82.12

TOR@CLE (5/1/15)           96.95     96.50     89.37     81.75

TOR@CLE (5/3/15)           96.45     97.00     89.10     83.28

   His fastball velo is down a bit from that peak against Atlanta, Quite simply, he's caught too much of the plate at times:

And when he's done so, it's most often been with his fastball or sinker.  Hitters have been laying off of his change and slider, forcing him to come with the heat - and hitters have been ready.

  The concern all along for Castro has been his lack of secondary pitches.  However, Aaron Sanchez came in and was lights out throwing primarily the fourseam/sinker combination last year.  Castro needs to work on his command in Buffalo.  Just as I was about to hit the 'publish' button, GM Alex Anthopoulos said that Castro will pitch out of the Bisons' starting rotation.  Which makes me wonder if we will see him again this season.  

  And you have to feel happy for Steve Delabar, who joins Chad Jenkins as they pass Castro and Copeland headed the opposite way on the QEW.  Delabar was very upset that he didn't make the club coming out of spring training.  Delabar seemed to have most of his old velo back, but I suspect a rough outing late in March against the Orioles, and the fact that he had options (and Liam Hendriks and Todd Redmond didn't) remaining sealed his fate.

  Bisons Manager Gary Allenson used Delabar very sparingly in the early going, giving him several days off between outings, and not using him in high leverage situations.  As April turned into May, Allenson began going to Delabar more often, and later in games.  He's appeared in 6 games since April 22nd, and five of those have been scoreless outings.  

   There's no real secret to Delabar's struggles in 2014, after an All Star year in 2013.  By his own admission, Delabar relies on velocity, and not movement, to get hitters out.  His fastball lost a tick last year, as did his ability to command it, and hitters were waiting for him.  If he's back to a more reasonable facsimile of his 2013 self, as opposed to last year's version, he should be a stabilizing force in the Blue Jays pen.  Of course, with options remaining, he could be in Toronto only until Castro turns himself around. 

   Jenkins should probably get ready to ride that QEW shuffle some more.  Until the rotation straightens itself out, the Blue Jays appear to be relying on whichever starter is up next for Buffalo to help in long relief.

 I can't let an opportunity pass without a final word about LHP Ricky Romero, released by the club last week.  Romero was the darling of Toronto in 2011, anointed the staff ace, and given a huge multi-year contract.  With the Blue Jays on the hook for 2016 for a $7.5 million salary, they exercised a $600 000 buyout to get out from under that deal.  They also did it early enough in the season to give him a chance to catch on with another team.

  Romero's troubles started in 2012, when hitters started to lay off of his change up, a pitch with so much movement that it often fell right out of the strike zone.  Injuries caused a drop in velocity, meaning that Romero often had to come in with a sub-par fastball in hitters' counts.  

  He struggled through a pair of seasons after that in which he simply wasn't healthy.  Surgically repaired and ready to go this spring, I had no reports about him, but that the club kept him behind in extended after training camp broke tells you much of what you need to know.  He wasn't ready to return to competition, and the Blue Jays obviously felt his MLB days were behind him.

  Several people on Twitter complained that the Blue Jays wrecked Romero, but that's far from accurate.  Their handling of him in 2013, when they kept him behind in Florida for all of one FSL start after spring training before rushing him up for a start that he clearly wasn't prepared for was puzzling, but the organization has been patient with him.  Hitters adjusted to Romero, and either because of health or an inability to make corresponding adjustments himself, Romero was no longer an effective starting pitcher by the end of 2012.   

     ************************************************************************

In summary, many eyebrows were raised when the Blue Jays broke camp with 6 rookies.  Some of that number was by design, some by accident, but the bottom line is that the Blue Jays felt that half dozen was a better option than the alternative.  And while Castro, Norris, and Pompey needed to be farmed out, the contributions from Devon Travis, Roberto Osuna, and even Aaron Sanchez, in that order, have been significant.  To me, this is just an extension of the roll the dice strategy the team has used in drafting players:  the upside of this group is such that given the injuries to Stroman and Saunders, the club felt that it was a worthwhile risk.  Did they expect that all six of them would instantly adjust?  Probably not.  If such was the case, the demoted trio would likely still be with the team.  The season is still young enough that it's not lost, and if these three can get themselves back together, they could still make a contribution to the team before the season is over.

A Look at Chase De Jong

      

The Toronto Blue Jays have become well known for drafting and developing a certain type of pitcher since Alex Anthopoulos took over as GM in 2009, and overhauled the scouting department:  tall, lean, and athletic.

  The Blue Jays are not married to that concept, and as Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna (although he's radically transformed his body since Tommy John surgery) have proven, they can scout outside of that box, but for every Stroman, there's an Aaron Sanchez and a Miguel Castro, and for every Osuna there's a Jeff Hoffman, Matt Smoral, and a Sean Reid-Foley.
    The reasoning for scouring the hemisphere for this type of pitcher is understandable.  The length allows them to develop a downward plane of their fastballs, which causes the hitter to have to change his focus during the ball's flight to home plate, creating a greater margin of error for a swing and miss, or weak contact.  Tall pitchers (like Castro and Sanchez, especially) can create a bit of an optical illusion because of their extension that hitters call "late life"; hitters have a fraction of a second less to track Castro's fastball, so it appears to "jump" on them because the ball is on them sooner than they realize.
   The lean body type allows the pitcher to have a lower-maintenance physique, which is less prone to injury, and more able to handle the wear and tear of a heavy workload.  One of the few negative things scouts had to say about Osuna was his formerly chunky build.  Medical science is still learning about the factors that precipitate torn ulnar collateral ligaments, but surely an untuned body has to be one.  A heavier pitcher may not necessarily have the musculature to support that weight during the course of repeating a pitching motion thousands of times during a season.
   The athleticism allows the pitcher to repeat his delivery consistently, and maintain a consistent arm slot for their deliveries, while maintaining a bit of deception for the hitters.  At times, a prospect like Daniel Norris comes into the organization with mechanics that are not optimal, but their athletic ability allows them to learn a new way to throw the ball, as well as the confidence to see them through the inevitable setbacks they will encounter as a result.  Athleticism also allows the pitcher to land in a good position to field any balls that come their way.

    I had the opportunity, thanks to milb.tv, to watch Chase De Jong's start this week against Great Lakes.  De Jong, taken in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft, fits the bill for this prototypical Toronto type of pitcher, at 6'4", 205.  Even though he's repeating the Midwest League, there's a great deal to be enthused about, given this start, and the one he threw the week before.  Here's a scouting report from prior to his draft year:

A USC commit, DeJong sits in the high 80s, topping out in low 90s. With a lot of projection left in there, Dejong looks to throw much harder as he fills out his tall, lean frame. He already possesses a hard curve with bite and feel for a changeup and he looks to be a smart pitcher who pounds the strike zone. He works downhill well, getting over his front side, and has an easy arm, remaining very balanced throughout. While not an exceptional talent at the moment, DeJong is the kind of high school arm that could be a completely different pitcher in two years thanks to more physical development and experience in the minors. He isn't the flashiest high school prospect, but has some of the higher upside in the class and shows a good balance of present skills and projectability.  He has the potential to be a solid starter, with the potential for three above average to plus pitches.

   The Blue Jays rolled the dice with De Jong, as they have with so many other picks in the Anthopoulos era.  Because of his USC pledge, De Jong was considered a tough sign - his father is a medical doctor, and his mother is a M. Ed. holder and a middle school guidance counsellor, and some teams obviously felt that education would come first, causing him to drop from a likely sandwich round pick to the 81st overall.  A $620 000 signing bonus offer helped to talk him out of his college commitment.
    De Jong made his pro debut in 2012, and after a pair of promising campaigns in rookie ball, skipped Vancouver and was sent to Lansing for full season ball last year.  And to put it mildly, he struggled.  After a rough April, De Jong seemed to be putting things together in May, but scuffled for much of the rest of the season before being shut down in early August.  Around the plate much of the time, De Jong gave up 113 hits in 97 innings, but walked only 22.
   Understandably, the Blue Jays wanted De Jong to repeat Lansing this season.  Since he barely tops 90 with his fastball and relies on his command, the organization has had him working on a two seamer to get some more movement on his fastball.  His first start of the season showcased the new pitch, as he struck out 9 Lake County hitters before leaving after reaching his pitch count with two out in the 5th on Lansing's Opening Day.
   The camera angle at Great Lakes provides an excellent view of the pitcher from center field, but isn't at a high enough angle to show movement.  De Jong, as is his custom, was around the plate for much of his five inning stint.  He had trouble commanding his curve at times, throwing it up in the zone.  His four seamer also tended to float a bit up in the strike zone, but he owned the bottom half with his two seamer, and while he wasn't as dominant as he was in his first start, De Jong still was impressive, allowing a run on three hits, while walking one and striking out five.
   De Jong has a smooth, easy delivery, and consistently repeats it.  He lands in a good fielding position.  Since he doesn't overpower, command and movement will be the keys to any hopes he has of advancing in the organization.  While velocity and missing a lot of bats advances prospects faster, Mark Buehrle proves that there's a lot to be said for changing speeds, command, and guile.

                                **********************************************

  I also got my first look at Catcher Danny Jansen, and while he's struggled with the bat like many of his young teammates have, I can understand the rave reviews he's earned for his skills behind the plate.
   A big target at 6'2", 210 lbs, Jansen is an effective framer of pitches already, and that skill will only improve as he learns his Lansing pitching staff better.  He is a good blocker of balls in the dirt, and is surprisingly agile for a kid his size.  Jansen gets out to field choppers, bunts, and slow rollers very well.  He handles pitchers well, and has been a contributor to De Jong's success, catching both of his starts so far. Jansen has yet to record his first MWL hit after 18 PA's, but he has hit everywhere he's played, so that may only be a matter of time.  And four walks are included in that total, so he's showing some good strike zone judgement. Max Pentecost may reach the majors before Jansen, but there's a lot to like with this just-turned 20 year old.

Spring Training Prospect Update #3

   The trickle of news coming out of spring training is turning into an April torrent.
With the Blue Jays making what's becoming their annual end-of-spring-training trip to Montreal for a pair of final exhibition games, the season opener is fast approaching.  We should know what the full season minor league rosters should look like by the end of the weekend.

Here's what's in the news:

2014 first round pick Jeff Hoffman has been making steady progress in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and threw in his first spring training game yesterday.  I think it went ok:

On his road back from TJ surgery, #BlueJays prospect Jeff Hoffman threw a 1-2-3 inning today in ST and worked at 95-98 mph. Wow
— Frankie Piliere (@FPiliereD1) April 1, 2015

   Before we get too excited, Hoffman is still at least a month away from when-it-counts game action.  And if there's one thing we've learned about the recovery, it's that most players take closer to 18 months to fully recover their velocity and command, Roberto Osuna being a case in point.  Still, it was welcome news.

   If you don't follow our Left Coast friend Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey) on Twitter, you should.  Caskey follows the Vancouver Canadians, and blogs about them for the Vancouver Sun.  Charlie also likes his barley and hops beverages, and is a dedicated dad, so he's all right in my books.
   Caskey has a source who let him in on some developments with several Blue Jays minor leaguers, and he shared some of that information in a pair of posts today.  The first involves news about the possible makeup of Lansing's pitching staff this year.  It's always interesting to see who the club sends to Lansing, the lowest of the full season teams in the organization.  Some pitchers move up the ladder from the GCL to the Appy League to the NWL one step at a time before hitting full season play in the Midwest League, while others skip one or more of those rungs and are fast-tracked to Lansing.
   And the news about Lansing isn't good.  Ryan Borucki, who made a comeback from TJ last year and pitched well at Bluefield and Vancouver, has been shut down with a sore elbow.  Maybe it's just the regular spring soreness, but it takes on added urgency when a player is throwing with a replacement ligament.  Not to get ahead of ourselves, but the success rate for a second Tommy John is considerably less than that of the first. This could be precautionary, of course, but he likely will be staying in Florida next week.
  Fellow southpaw Matt Smoral followed the same route as Borucki last year, and word from Caskey is that he's not had the best of springs, and he may be on the bubble.  It could just be a hiccup, or it could be he needs time in Extended Spring Training.  The Blue Jays 2nd round pick in 2012 has been brought along very slowly, but made excellent progress last year.
   Finally, yet another lefty, Jairo Labourt, seems to be having an electric spring, and may find himself in Dunedin next week.  Labourt was challenged with an assignment to Lansing last year, but had trouble with his command, and was sent back to Extended.  Sent to Vancouver to join the C's for short season play, he was one of the NWL's top prospects, and restored much luster to his reputation.
  As well, we had learned earlier in the month that Alberto Tirado will remain in the bullpen this year, and if I had to guess, he'll start with Dunedin.  Tirado struggled with the cool Midwest weather last year, and while all Blue Jays prospects raised in warm weather climates have to deal with it eventually, if he's been pitching as well as we hear he has, High A will be the better placement for him.
   Last year's 2nd rounder, Sean Reid-Foley, appears to be poised to skip both Bluefield and Vancouver for Lansing.  He's definitely on the fast track.
   On the position player side, Caskey reports that Lansing's outfield may resemble a track team, with speedsters Roemon Fields, Anthony Alford, and DJ Davis possibly getting assignments there.
   Davis, the club's first round pick in 2012, was a disappointment last year at Lansing, but was one of the youngest players in the league, and is still learning the game.  I've written extensively about Alford, the two-sport star who suddenly gave up on college football last September to focus on baseball, and while he proved during his time in Australia this winter and with the big club earlier this month that he still is raw, his ceiling is quite high.  Then there's Fields, who two springs ago was out of baseball, and working for the US Postal Service. Here he is, hitting a routine stand-up triple against the Orioles:

   According to Caskey, a Florida-based scout puts Alford ahead of Davis in terms of development.  At the same time, Davis played some of his best baseball last summer in the brief time fellow Mississippian Alford was in the lineup.  Pairing them up at least to start the season could be beneficial for both, although it's hard to see Alford spending the whole season in Lansing.  Blue Jays fans may be just as excited about Alford next spring as they have been about Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro this spring.  As for Fields, there is talk that he could start at Lansing or Dunedin.  Veteran superscout Mel Didier said that he is the best defensive outfielder in the organization, major and minor leagues.

    Caskey also reports that Catchers AJ Jimenez and Derrick Chung are out with injuries - no word on the extent with the oft-injured Jimenez, and Chung's sounds like an oblique, which isn't serious, but can be if it's not treated properly.

   Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus had a few observations about Blue Jays prospects at Spring Training today.
   About Dwight Smith, who has been playing some second base this spring, he offers:

 ..an intriguing player last year in the FSL, but one likely to end up as a fourth outfielder thanks to his “tweener” profile (not enough power for a corner, not enough defense for center). Perhaps in an attempt to remedy that, he has added a rather extreme leg kick in his stance. It might cost him some contact, but if it moves his power up a tick on the scale it could be enough to make him an everyday player. Stay tuned.

    On Emilio Guerrero, who the Jays have been attempting to convert to an outfielder, Moore observed:

 The overall product doesn’t add up to the sum of the parts for Emilio Guerrero (Blue Jays), who continues to look the part but baffles scouts with below-average baseball IQ and poor execution at the plate. The frame, at 6-4 and thin, is ideal, and he handles it well enough to handle shortstop for the time being, but the lack of approach at the plate continues to hold him back.  

 

Speaking of Osuna and Castro, I won't be surprised to find one of them back in the minors before the end of April, and if I had to wager, it would be Osuna.  Both were almost unhittable earlier in the month, but now that rosters have been pared and hitters are getting their timing back, both have given up some contact and been touched for some runs in their last few outings.  Castro may be groomed to be a multiple innings guy, but Osuna needs to pitch, and if he has a few rocky outings, I could see him making his way back, probably to AA, where he should be stretched out as a starter again.

   Spring Training is a time of renewal, and for some players, it's a chance at redemption - another shot at the big time.  At the same time, we tend to forget that for every player who makes it to the majors, there are dozens who don't, and the end of March for some can be the-writing-on-the-wall time.  Such was the case for righthander Ben White, who announced his retirement on Twitter:

Thanks everyone who supported me the past 4 years. Today I retired from the Toronto Blue Jays & the game of baseball. pic.twitter.com/T8w80vyXp6
— Ben White (@Bennyhana42) April 1, 2015

   White hails from Parksburg, PA, about an hour outside of Philadelphia, and played college ball at Temple.  White signed with the Blue Jays as an undrafted free agent following his senior year in 2011, and had advanced from Vancouver to New Hampshire, where he started a pair of games last year.  White has been a solid, if unspectacular performer for the team, pitching to contact.  If I had to speculate, there may not have been room for him in New Hampshire's rotation this year, with John Anderson converted to starting, and Taylor Cole, Matt Boyd, Casey Lawrence, and Jayson Aquino (acquired before spring training for reliever Tyler Ybarra) ahead of him, White may have felt at 26 that it was time to move on with this life.  He exited from the game in a classy manner.


One last note:
  Caskey and I compared notes about pitchers in minor league camp who have impressed, and we had one in common:  lefty Matt Boyd, who Caskey's source said has been "throwing fuel" this month.
  Boyd is another player I've written a fair amount about, and have gotten to know a little bit through our interactions on Twitter.  There's no cheering in the press box, but since I'm not a beat writer (or a journalist, really, although I try to produce quality content), I can pull a bit for this guy, who was matching Daniel Norris and Kendall Graveman strike for strike last spring, until foot and elbow (bone chips) issues limited his effectiveness.

    I write a regular Monday notebook, the first issue of which should be out early next week (maybe even Monday) - I'm holding out for the announcement of those minor league rosters.

Spring Training Prospect Update #2

    One of the great ironies of spring training is that while fans who can't make the journey to Florida or Arizona can still keep close tabs on their teams thanks to the plethora of reporters and media outlets, it's hard to find out what's going on in Minor League camp unless you have some sources on the "inside," - or at least something close to it.

   Nonetheless, there still is some news coming out of Minor League camp.
Today, we learned that Anthony Alford and Jack Murphy had been reassigned from the big club's camp, joining Dwight Smith, Jr, and Mitch Nay, who had been sent down earlier.

Through the magic of live streaming, I was able to watch Alford's debut against the Orioles:

@Clutchlings77 I totally agree
— Anthony Alford (@ajalfor1) March 6, 2015

  Speaking of Alford, there was a good article about him on ESPN.com.  While it didn't provide much that we didn't already know, there were some good insights into Alford's reaction to having to go to Ole Miss Head Coach Hugh Frazee to tell him he was giving up football for baseball.  And we hadn't thought about the Bo Jackson comparison the article made, but it kind of makes sense.  He was overmatched at times against the higher level pitching he faced this spring, but he wasn't sent to big league camp to earn a job, but to soak up the atmosphere, and learn from major leaguers like Jose Bautista.  Those of us diehard fans who stayed tuned to the Blue Jays games earlier this month after the regulars had been removed from the lineup got a glimpse of his athleticism and speed.  When asked about who impressed him the most at major league camp, he replied without hesitation, "Bautista and Donaldson."

Some other news and tidbits:

-Matt Boyd tested out his surgically cleaned-out elbow earlier this week, and pronounced it fully healed.
-Clinton Hollon, who had Tommy John surgery a month ago, was throwing well in bullpen sessions, and is scheduled to return to competition in late April or early May.  The 2013 2nd rounder hit 95 with his fastball prior to the surgery. If you're looking for a sleeper breakout candidate this year, he may be the one.
-Canadian Justin Atkinson is being converted to catcher.  The 2011 26th rounder hit well in Lansing last year, and it will be interesting to see where he's assigned to start the year.
-Lane Thomas, a steal of a 5th round pick last year who opened a lot of eyes, has been taking reps at second base so far in minor league camp.
-the Buffalo Bisons began minor league spring training today, and have a slate of games against Dunedin/Clearwater teams.
-via Chis King of Baseball Prospectus (@StatsKing on Twitter), who watched the Blue Jays minor leaguers play against Puerto Rico yesterday, we had good reports on Catcher Matt Morgan's footwork, and Sean Reid-Foley's nasty slider.  Angel Perdomo started the game for the Blue Jays, and was squared up a bit in the first, but straightened things out in the second.
-there are some nice prospect profiles (mostly Blue Jays) coming out of Dunedin, via the Toronto Observer, by students at Toronto's Centennial College J-School that make for good reading.  The trip to spring training is part of the course of study for their fast-track journalism program - many Ontario colleges now offer similar courses. The program is open to college or university grads.


   By now, you all are familiar with the lights-out springs Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna have had.  Neither has been scored upon yet, and both were featured in the Blue Jays win over the Yankees on Tuesday night. Castro was all but unhittable, retiring 8 straight Yankees in his outing, while Osuna was hit hard on a couple of occasions, but escaped a pair of threats unscathed.  Castro has shown a vastly improved change up, which would be a devastating weapon paired with his electric fastball - in relief.
  I've made my feelings known about both.  Castro is only 20, pitched 80 innings last year, and has thrown all of 8 innings above Low A.  Osuna is the same age, is 20 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and has thrown 23 innings at High A.  Both would benefit from more time in the minors, in order to build up arm strength and develop their secondary pitches.  Castro, in particular, has pitched even better than he did last year, but the second half of spring training is where it counts, as teams pare down their rosters, and hitters begin to get their timing down.
  I would prefer both return to the minors, starting at Dunedin until the weather warms up, and then on to New Hampshire, and who knows?  Castro would be pitching in almost exclusively high leverage situations if he pitched out of the Blue Jays bullpen, and Osuna still needs to be treated with care - he's almost out of the woods, but not quite.  Just look at Kyle Drabek, who is in a life and death struggle to make this team, almost three years after this second Tommy John.  And for those who have forgotten, Drabek was the Blue Jays top prospect two years running prior to 2012.  They paid a heavy price in acquiring him, and they paid a similarly high one in the form of the $1.5 million signing bonus they gave Osuna.
  But I'm not facing an expiring contract, and the spectre of a new boss, and the longest playoff drought in baseball like Alex Anthopoulos is.  Castro is looking more and more like the one who will stick - most of the hitters Osuna faced won't likely be playing in the majors next month.  If they do take Castro north with them, the Blue Jays will have to treat his young arm very carefully.  And is that worth the risk?  We all know the importance of the bullpen, but the top-ranked bullpen in the game last year was beaten by the 28th-ranked team.  And the teams with the 24th, 26th, and 27th ranked bullpens made it to the playoffs as well.  The top 10 bullpens produced the same number of playoff teams.  The reason for this, of course, is simple: there are other aspects, like a strong starting rotation, or a run-producing offence, that are just as important - if not moreso - than a bullpen.  Will Castro make that much of a difference?  Would we rather not have him pitch about 140 innings as a starter next year, as opposed to maybe 80-90 as a reliever this year?  The top-ranked reliever, in terms of WAR (Baseball-Reference's model) ranked 28th overall among MLB pitchers last year, and there was a grand total of 5 relief pitchers in the top 50.
   Only the Blue Jays brain trust knows for sure.

Putting Daniel Norris Into Perspective

   Daniel Norris is everywhere these days, so it seems.  Last year, the first articles came out about his living a bit of a vagabond off season life, in his Westfalia Van Shaggy, came to light.

   This year, as spring training approached, Norris loaded up Shaggy, and left his home in Tennessee bound for Florida and Spring Training, with some surfing stops along the way.  The media picked up on this even more.

   As someone who has followed Norris closely since his sophomore pro season, it's been rewarding to see how he has risen the minor league ladder, but remained humble and close to his roots.  Faced with adversity in his first pro season and the first month of his second, respected publications like Baseball America were wondering how someone with such lights-out stuff could be hit so hard.  Norris grit his teeth, dug in, and worked his way through that difficult time, and he and his family deserve all the credit in the world for that.

  As a sidenote, it seems that Norris is maybe learning his first lesson about dealing with the media, He granted ESPN access to his travels this winter, and now the mainstream media has picked it up, and Norris is tiring of it, as he told reporters after his spring debut against the Orioles:

“Not a huge fan of it. It’s kind of weird,” Norris said. “I understand at this point in time that it’s inevitable. It’s happened and it’s there, but I’d rather tuck away a little bit. Just play ball.”

  Personally, I think Norris is refreshing.  He could have gone for all the trappings that other young men who find themselves gifted with a $2 million signing bonus do, but all he appears to have purchased is the van and a surfboard.  I don't find his lifestyle all that unusual - as someone who loves the outdoors and tries to spend as much time as possible on outdoor adventures, I can appreciate the simpler life he's trying to lead.  When he was playing rookie ball for Bluefield, in the heart of the Appalachians, Norris led a group of young teammates (many of whom had never been in the wilderness before) on a hike in a nearby State Forest.  Norris is always looking for adventure, and whatever comes his way.



  Norris' debut against the O's was scintillating.  With Baltimore fielding pretty much their opening day lineup, Norris more than held his own, striking out Delmon Young on a lovely curve, and freezing Chris Davis with an outside fastball for a called third strike.  If there's a caveat in there, it's that he reached his pitch count fairly quickly, and threw 36 pitches in an inning and two thirds.  And that's the only thing that we would suggest Norris has to work on - maximizing those pitches, and working deeper into games.

   Norris is in a battle for the 5th spot in the starting rotation, but you can't count on a major contribution from his just yet.  If the accepted rule of thumb is that a pitcher should throw no more than 30 innings more than he did the previous year (it's a guideline only; pitch counts are the better measure), Norris can't be counted on for more than about 160 innings this year.  To have him go beyond that increases the risk of injury.

   And while we're at it, let's not forget that Norris has had elbow issues in both of the past two seasons.  He was shut down for a month in 2013 with elbow soreness, and then had bone chips removed at the end of 2014.  He won't be 22 until April, so he's still in the prime age range for elbow and shoulder injuries (the frequency starts to decrease between 23 and 25).  The bubble wrap will come off of him a little more this year, but before we get excited and pencil him in the rotation and set him up as a Rookie of the Year candidate, let's remember that.

   Just the same, it's an exciting time, and kudos to the Blue Jays and their scouting staff, who were not scared off by Norris' Clemson commitment in 2011, and stood by him during his first season in 2012 after they had overhauled his mechanics.
   Roberto Osuna, another haul from the IFA ranks in 2011, made his spring debut last night as well, and pitched an impressive inning long after all but us prospect diehards had turned the game off.  Osuna still has that wrist wrap at the back of his delivery that the Blue Jays were reportedly trying to eliminate, because it may be limiting the movement of his fastball.  He had the premium velocity at 95, but showed more command than he did late last year and fall after coming back from Tommy John surgery.  He also showed that advanced feel for pitching that we've all heard about, striking out leadoff hitter Trey Mancini in the with a nasty backdoor change up.
   In his own way, Osuna's appearance was just as impressive as Norris' was.  It was a great night to be a Blue Jays fan, even though they lost the game, and fans on Twitter were already pronouncing Devon Travis, off to an 0-6 start, not ready for prime time.  Patience, people......

Clutchlings' Revised Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects

   The laptop had no more than cooled off after we published our first Top 10 list a few months ago, when the Blue Jays traded Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Brett Lawrie to Oakland for Josh Donaldson.  While we hated to see Barreto, in particular, go, the addition of Donaldson makes an already-potent top half of the batting order that much better.
   Given that Barreto and Graveman were in that Top 10, and given some other developments over the past few weeks, we decided to revise that list.  Noticeable for his absence is OF Anthony Alford, who just missed the cut.  Watching the youngster against the veteran Australian League pitchers this winter has made us realize that he's a bit further away that we had originally thought.  By his own admission, Alford was too aggressive at times, and the ABL pitchers made him pay.  Still, the experience will only pay off for him down the road, and if you think Dalton Pompey plays some highlight-reel defence, wait until you see Alford and his Dysonian glove cover centerfield.


#1  Daniel Norris, LHP
   Norris has become something of a folk hero this off-season, with his shaggy beard and Westfalia van of the same name.  Personally, I don't find it odd at all that a young man his age loves the outdoors and adventure, but some in the media are playing up that granola-ish image. The problem with promoting such an image is that intends to become a lasting impression for some, which is a shame, because Norris is more than a ball player.  He's a bright, articulate, thoughtful young man who is quite interested in the world around him. Let's hope the media doesn't turn him into something of a caricature.  Former Cards and Brewers C/DH Ted Simmons once said of his years in the late 60s at the University of Michigan, "(it was) a time when I learned more how to function as a member of society, and less as someone who was trying to hit the curveball." And in the world of baseball, it takes a lot of courage to think like that.
   After hammering out his control issues and learning to trust his fastball in Low A in 2013, Norris rode a rocket to the big leagues last year.  Bone chips in his elbow that had to be removed after the season cost him some velocity when he was called up to the Blue Jays in September, but it was impressive how he used his guile and secondary pitches to get outs just the same.
   Norris led all minor leaguers with a 11.8/9 strikeout rate this year.  Sitting between 91-95 with his fastball, he touched 97 on occasion.  His slider and change project to be plus offerings, and he lands in a good fielding position after his delivery.  Norris is the total package.
  About the only thing that Norris has to work on is economizing his pitch count, and lasting deeper into games.  If he has proven that he is capable of doing that this spring, he should break camp with the Blue Jays.  If not, he will head to Buffalo for more seasoning, but his stay there may not be all that long.

#2 Aaron Sanchez
  The ascent of Sanchez, while not as meteoric as that of Norris, was still a welcome development last year.
  It's not easy wearing the crown of Top Prospect for as long as Sanchez has, and the team's minor league development staff have put considerable work in helping him harness his abundant natural ability.
   Sanchez, to put if bluntly, has had troubles keeping his walk totals down as a minor league starter.  With the big league bullpen in shambles, the club converted Sanchez to relief shortly after promoting him to Buffalo.  After a couple of appearances, he found himself on a big league mound in Toronto.
   Sanchez was lights out in relief.  With his pitch repertoire pared down to his sinker (thrown 60% on the time while in the majors), and his fourseamer (23%), Sanchez was brilliant for two months in the Toronto bullpen.
   The dilemma now becomes should he be stretched back out as a starter, and compete for the 5th starter's job with Norris and others?  The answer for now seems to be yes.
   Sanchez throws with a nice, easy delivery, and the ball seems to explode out of his hand.  There are concerns with how short his landing is, as the club has shortened the stride in his delivery to help him keep on top of the ball.  The concern, among some, is that this delivery puts unnecessary strain on his shoulder, and an injury may only be a matter of time.
   If Sanchez struggles with his control in spring training, will the club send him back to Buffalo to get things ironed out, or will he become a back of the bullpen arm?  As with many players the Blue Jays have drafted over the years, the upside and risk of Aaron Sanchez appear to be of almost equal proportions.

#3 Dalton Pompey
    The development of Pompey is a tribute to the doggedness of the Blue Jays scouting staff, and the patience of their minor league people.  They stuck with him through his first three minor league seasons, when his performance was marked by inconsistency and injury, gave him time to develop in Lansing, and then watched him blossom last year. There were signs in his last month at Lansing in 2013 that he was about to bust out, but no one expected that he would become the mega-prospect he turned into in 2014.
   Pompey hits the ball hard, draws walks, plays highlight reel defence, and is both a stolen base threat and a smart baserunner.  Unless he stumbles badly in spring training, you would have to think that he will either claim the centrefield job outright, or earn a portion of it in tandem with Kevin Pillar.
   He should be a fixture in the top of the Blue Jays batting order for years to come.

4.  Jeff Hoffman, rhp
 We've been back and forth on Hoffman.  That the Baltimore Orioles, either themselves or through media intermediaries, were said to be insisting on the 2014 draftee as part of any compensation package for GM Dan Duquette, tells a great deal about his potential.  The Blue Jays, wisely (if this was the case), backed away.  We also learned, via Jeff Blair of Sportsnet, that the Braves were asking about Hoffman, and were  willing to send Justin Upton in return.
   Hoffman had Tommy John surgery in early May.  All appears to be going well with his rehab. He was throwing off a mound around Christmas time, and appears to be on schedule to return to game action in late April or early May.
  Everything that we have heard and read about Hoffman is that he is front-of-the-rotation material.  The Blue Jays appear to have obtained a top 3 pick for 9th pick bonus money.  Patience for at least this year is the key.  He will have to deal with the usual command and velocity issues that players coming back from the surgery have to deal with.  Like the next guy on the list.

5.  Roberto Osuna, rhp
   Osuna had no trouble dialing up his old velocity, touching 95 with his fastball in the Arizona Fall League.
   His plus changeup, and his advanced feel (for someone just turning 20) for pitching returned, too.  What he appeared to be missing was his command of all of his pitches.  Osuna caught too much of the strike zone in the AFL, and the elite hitters there made him pay for it.
  There is also a concern among some that Osuna's fastball doesn't have enough movement, due to the wrist wrap in his delivery.  The club has invited him to spring training with the major league club, which suggests they have high hopes for him.
  One positive thing about Osuna's TJ surgery in July of 2013 is that you don't hear the words "high maintenance body" applied to him any more.  He has lost considerable weight, and appears to be taking his nutrition and conditioning seriously.

6.  Miguel Castro, rhp
   Take away the impressive seasons Norris and Kendall Graveman had, and no other Blue Jays pitcher made as much progress as Castro did last season.
  In only his second stateside season, he progressed as far as High A,  dazzling hitters with the command of his plus fastball.  Just turned 20 on Christmas Eve, Castro was invited to spring training as well, with the suggestion from GM Alex Anthopoulos that we will see Castro pitching out of the Blue Jays pen sooner rather than later this summer.
   The issue with Castro has been the development of his secondary pitches, although his fastball gives him a larger margin of error than it would for other pitchers.  He gets good sink on his fastball, which can bore in on right handed hitters; with his milb career splits against them, we can understand the Blue Jays toying with the idea of having him pitch in relief.  He is still so young, however, we hope that he will be given at least one more season to develop his off speed and breaking pitches.

7.  Richard Urena, ss
   With the Barreto trade, Urena now becomes the team's shortstop of the future.  Some have labelled him major league-ready defensively. Unlike Barreto and Dawel Lugo, who were part of the same IFA class as Urena in 2012, he is projected to stay at the position.
   A natural lefthanded hitter, Urena tried switch-hitting this year, and was successful.  Reports suggest his power grades as below average, but he has plus bat speed, and barrels up balls well to all fields.  Urena will not turn 19 until later this month, but once he reaches full season ball (which should be this year), his development could accelerate quickly.

8.  Max Pentecost, c
   Pentecost leaps into our top 10 from the margins after some second thought (and the trade of Graveman and Barreto).  His shoulder surgery will back up his developmental timetable somewhat, but the kid is an athlete - one who can actually play.
   Pentecost profiles as a bat-first catcher.  The club has some work to do with his receiving and game-calling skills.  He is regarded as fast, and not just for a catcher.
  Which brings to mind tales of the legendary Branch Rickey.  In the days when farm systems were in their infancy, Rickey pioneered the tryout camp, where mass numbers of players were culled.  For Rickey, the most important tool was speed, both from an offensive and defensive perspective, and one of the first acts of his camps was to line the prospective players up and run a 60 yard dash; those who finished in the back of the pack were sent home before they ever even picked up a glove or bat.
According to Kevin Kerrane, who wrote the excellent treatise on scouting that is Dollar Sign on the Muscle, "(Rickey) believed it (speed) to be the single biggest indicator of major league potential."
  Keeping that in mind, we're inclined to look a little more favourably on Pentecost now.
 
9.  Devon Travis, 2b
   There is no Blue Jays prospect who has sparked as much divided opinion as Travis.
Blocked by Ian Kinsler in Detroit, the Tigers were set to give him a shot in the outfield, but ultimately saw Anthony Gose as a better bet for depth.
   At this point, the only thing holding Travis back would be his lack of experience.  Unless he has a knockout spring, that would be the only reason to send him to Buffalo.  And if incumbent Maicer Izturis' rehabbed knee isn't up to the task, the time may be sooner rather than later for Travis.
   Travis lacks one outstanding tool, and that seems to be the hangup for some people.  There's everything in the CV he has compiled to this point to indicate that he will hit.  Maybe not for a batting title, but he will provide some spark to the offence, while playing adequate defence.
   We have to make room for him on this list.  He's almost major league ready.  He's maybe not a multiple WAR guy, but he's not far away from helping this club plug a longstanding hole.

10.  Sean Reid-Foley, rhp
  We've developed a tradition of using this spot for a high ceiling, but far away player.  Like Alford, who we still believe in, but he still has a steep learning curve ahead of him.
   Again, reading over reports this winter, there's a growing consensus that the Blue Jays stole one when they selected Reid-Foley. The Blue Jays may once more have acquired a top level talent without paying a commensurate (relatively speaking) price for it. He did not overwhelm in his first pro season, but you have to look no further than the top 3 players on this list to realize that you can't read much into that.  In the back fields of the Dunedin complex, much goes on in the way of rebuilding swings and overhauling deliveries.  Reid-Foley may have been in the shop for some alterations last summer, and it will be interesting to see where and how he develops this season.  We think prospects like Ryan Borucki and Matt Smoral who are ahead of Reid-Foley in terms of age, experience, and devlopment may be more likely breakthrough candidates this year, but he may ultimately have the highest ceiling.