Blue Jays Prospect Suspended 50 games for Amphetamine Use

Rocketsports.com photo

  The Blue Jays chose Kentucky HS RHP  Clinton Hollon with their 2nd pick in the 2013 draft.  Rated one of the Top 100 potential picks that year by Baseball America, their scouting report on Hollon says much of what you need to know about him:

Hollon started throwing in the mid-90s after his sophomore season, establishing himself as a potential first-round pick for 2013. Elbow tendinitis sapped his arm strength toward the end of last summer, but he has bounced back this spring to work at 90-93 mph with a peak of 95. He’s athletic and has good arm speed, but the 6-foot-1, 195-pounder also throws with some effort. That costs him command and consistency, though at his best Hollon can display a sharp slider that projects as a plus pitch and a changeup that projects as average. Questions persist about his maturity, which could knock him down to the third round. Though he has committed to Kentucky and may not get selected as early as once expected, teams consider him signable.

   Arm troubles, concerns about his delivery, a possible college commitment, and questions about his makeup - and an electric arm:  that tends to add up to the kind of high-risk, high-reward athlete the Blue Jays covet, and after failing to sign California High Schooler Phil Bickford, Hollon became the organization's top pick in 2013.

   Hollon pitched in the GCL and Appy Leagues after signing, but had some elbow issues, and after the condition flared up again in spring training the next year, he underwent Tommy John surgery.  With a new UCL and a renewed focus (Hollon became a father in the offseason), Hollon was named Vancouver's Opening Day starter when the Northwest League season began play in mid-June.

   Hollon was very effective for the C's, and earned a promotion to the Midwest League in early August.  His Lansing debut was spectacular, retiring the final 19 hitters he faced in succession, and he pitched well in two other starts.

   And then things came crashing down on Hollon.

   He was suspended for 50 games for violating Minor League Baseball;s drug prevention and treatment program, after testing positive for an amphetamine.  Hollon will not be paid during this suspension, which will carry over into next year.

   There is no word as to what the amphetamine was at this point, although it's highly likely that it came from a supplement Hollon purchased, and it may be even more likely that he was unaware that he was consuming a banned substance.  He would not be the first Blue Jays prospect to experience this - Marcus Stroman was suspended for 50 games near the end of the 2012 season for a failed test.  The substance Stroman tested positive for apparently was methylhexaneamine, a supposedly mild stimulant that was in a supplement he had purchased from a GNC store.  All Blue Jays prospects are given a list of products that are safe to use, and it would appear that like Stroman, Hollon strayed from this list, for whatever reason.  The Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport warned athletes several years ago that some supplement manufacturers are less than honest about their package labelling, and some of those products can contain banned substances either deliberately, or due to contamination.

  So, the question becomes - why did Hollon do it?  What did he hope to gain from it?  Was it arrogance or naivete?
  Ok, so that's three questions.  I'll do my best to offer some answers.  First of all, for the uninitiated, it's not unusual for athletes to take supplements.  They place demands on their bodies far in excess of what you and I do (and at that, this active blogger puts a bit of protein powder in his smoothie from time to time after a long bike ride or ski).  The need to recover from today's workout is important so that they can go on to tomorrow's. And the minor league lifestyle, with long bus trips, and $20/day meal money on the road, is not exactly conducive to a healthy diet.
   You can buy these supplements just about anywhere - you don't need a GNC. Our local Loblaws offers up several huge plastic tubs of various concoctions in the health food section.  I suspect that Hollon had taken his illegal substances without knowing - I just can't see how a guy in the lower minors who makes less than what a fast-food worker makes (even one who signed for a below slot $476K bonus) would be intentionally be taking something illegal in order to enhance his performance.
   Hollon did, however, move away from that list of approved products, so the question really becomes why take that chance?  I would think maybe it was a case of bad judgement, more than thinking that he knew better than the Blue Jays medical staff.  When you live a life of dedicating yourself to a singular talent, you don't always develop the greatest perspective on the world - Hollon may have thought that whatever he was taking would still pass muster on the testing front.  And he will have to live with that choice.  The Blue Jays, for their part, have invested heavily in Hollon, both with his bonus and his surgery, and showed patience with Stroman for making the same poor decision.  One would suspect that they'll continue to be so with Hollon.

   We don't know, of course, what substance Hollon was found to have taken, but it seems a safe bet that he wasn't aware of taking it.  What we do know is that he's responsible for whatever he puts in his body.  We also know that Lansing, gearing up for the MWL playoffs after taking the first half Eastern Division title, now has a huge hole in the middle of their starting rotation.  And as for Hollon, whose development has already been set back, he will not pitch again until late May at the earliest, and those questions about his makeup will likely continue.

   I leave the last word on the subject to Hollon himself, who was quoting Kid Rock, and may not have realized he was being prophetic at the time:

You get what you put in! And people get what they deserve!!!

— Clinton Hollon (@HollonClinton) August 18, 2015

A Look at a Trio of Promising Arms

Kyle Castle/MiLB.com photo

  I've written a great deal about the approach to the June draft that the Toronto Blue Jays have taken in the tenure of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  It has been flexible, and changed in response to new draft rules, and fluctuating draft crop quality, but one thing has held firm:  this is an organization that is not afraid to roll the dice.  Not afraid to look for players in non-traditional markets (Anthony Alford), players with concerns about height (Marcus Stroman), players with college commitments (Daniel Norris), and senior season role change players (Matt Boyd).
   Two elements unify almost all of their draft choices: projection and athleticism.  They will take a player that other teams might pass on if they see those two qualities in abundance.

   Projection is the ability to visualize a player not as what he is now, but what he might be in three to four years time, with a transformed body and, in the case of pitchers, streamlined mechanics.
  Athleticism is the ability of that player to make the changes necessary to make that projection a reality.

   This would explain, of course, the Blue Jays preference for drafting high school players.  For one, scouting a pitcher is relatively easier than scouting a hitter.  Scouts can quantify a pitcher's performance:  delivery, velocity of pitches, plane on his breaking ball, etc.  The unevenness of pitching, especially at the high school level, can make evaluating hitters more of a subjective process.

   Secondly, while some teams aren't afraid of letting colleges develop their talent, and there are some highly-regarded programs in terms of pitcher development, the Blue Jays are part of a group of teams that prefers to get their pitchers as soon as possible, getting them into pro ball and refining (or in some cases, re-making) their mechanics before they learn bad habits in college.

   Over the past few days, thanks to milb.tv, I was able to watch three pitchers who took different routes to pro ball, but all have that athleticism and projection in common:   2013 7th rounder out of Santa Monica HS, Conner Greene, 1st round pick Jon Harris from Missouri State (the Jays had drafted him out of high school in the 33rd round in 2012), and 2011 International Free Agent Angel Perdomo.

  Greene was 6'3", and all of 165 pounds when the Blue Jays drafted him.  He's added about 20 lbs to his frame since that time, and has been on a rapid ascent in the system this year.  Beginning the year with Lansing, striking out 65 hitters in 67 innings, Greene was getting stronger with every start in his first year of full season ball.  Promoted to Dunedin at the beginning of July, he burst onto the prospect radar with a 7-inning, 10 strikeout effort a month later, that earned him a promotion to AA New Hampshire.  A bump in curveball velocity was responsible for much of that:

Over past week, #BlueJays Conner Greene has added 7 mph to his curveball. Used it a bunch getting career-high 10 Ks tonight.

— Jake Seiner (@Jake_Seiner) August 7, 2015

  Heading into his New Hampshire debut, the 20-year old Greene had not given up an earned run in his last three starts, a stretch of 18 innings.  He survived a rocky first inning, in which his first five pitches were balls, aided by a 4-6-3 double play.  In the second, he needed only 7 pitches to exit the inning, helped again by a 6-4-3 twin killing.  After a tidy nine-pitch third, Greene ran into a bit of trouble in the 4th, hitting 96 on the gun to strike out Cleveland's top pick from last year, Kyle Zimmer, and then inducing his third double play of the night to escape the inning unscathed.
   Greene cruised through the 5th and 6th, attacking the strike zone better than he had earlier in the game, his confidence obviously growing.  He left after 6 shutout innings, giving up only 3 hits, walking 3, and striking out 1.  Greene threw 70 pitches on the night, 43 for strikes.  He induced 9 ground ball outs, while giving up only 3 flyball outs.  He had only two swinging strikes on the night, but did not give up much hard contact - the video quality tailed off late in the game, but I counted only two hard hit balls on the night against him.
   With the vacancies created by the Blue Jays trade deadline deals, there is now room for up-and-comers like Greene.  His fastball/sinker/curve combination plays well, and with runners on, there is always the threat of the double play ball.
  Here's the inning-ending ground ball that Greene finished his start with:

   I didn't chart the piggyback start of Harris and Perdomo, in order to get a general impression of them first.  I have to add that the video quality from Hillsboro was excellent - good camera angles, picture quality, and even replays.  Kudos to that organization, and let's hope Lansing and Vancouver can eventually come up with video as well.

   The Blue Jays were thrilled to get Harris with the 29th pick of the first round.  Here's Baseball America's scouting report on the tall right hander:

 He stepped into the Bears' weekend rotation as a freshman and had immediate success, but he's now a significantly more physical pitcher and the fastball that quickly dipped to the mid-80s when he was in high school now sits at 91-93 mph all day and he will touch 95. Harris mixes in a pair of breaking balls, a 12-to-6 curveball that flashes plus and a solid-average slider that he is able to throw for strikes. His changeup is a potentially average pitch as well, and some scouts have seen each secondary pitch flash plus. Harris missed two starts with an ankle injury but pitched a complete-game shutout in his return from injury, answering any questions about his health. Harris has pitched deep into games consistently this year. He's worked into the eighth inning of eight of his last nine starts and was averaging 110 pitches an outing this year. Harris' control is still shaky at times--he's walked 3.2 batters per nine innings but he also generates lots of swings and misses (10.8 strikeouts per nine innings).

  Harris has had only modest success with Vancouver this year, but not much was expected from him after throwing over 100 college innings.  His pitch count has been limited, but his most recent start against Hillsboro showed much of what BA reported about him.  He struggled a bit in the first two innings, and needed both a nifty 4-6-3 double play on a slow roller, and a pair of sparkling defensive plays by 3rd Baseman Justin Atkinson to get out of trouble, but he began pounding the bottom of the strike zone in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th, and while he gave up 4 hits in this outing, only 2 were balls that were hit hard, and one was an opposite field, down the line double.  His fastball peaked at 93.
   Harris can get out of synch with his windup, and he loses the strike zone for a few pitches as a result.  He was able to make adjustments to his delivery, and came up with his best pro outing, shutting Hillsboro out on over 5 innings, walking a pair, and striking out 4.  We have not seen the best from Harris in his first pro season, but this was a glimpse of maybe what to come next year.
   Video of the final out of Harris' outing:

   As good as Harris was on this occasion, he was outshone by newly promoted lefty Angel Perdomo.  The 6'6" Dominican has been on my radar for a little over a year.  The 2011 International Free Agent was not a huge bonus signing, and he pitched in this game like he had something to prove.  Brought along slowly by the Jays, he didn't make his stateside debut in the GCL until last year, and after demonstrating good command at Bluefield, he got the call to the Pacific Northwest.
   Perdomo has a nice, loose, and easy delivery, somewhat reminiscent of Aaron Sanchez - but with far more control.  Coming into the game in relief of Harris in the 6th, Perdomo allowed only a walk through four innings, and threw first-pitch strikes to 12 of the 13 hitters he faced.  His length allows him great extension on his pitches, and gives his fastball some late life.  The Hillsboro play-by-play man gave no indication as to Perdomo's velocity, but the Hops' hitters were overmatched against the 21 year old, who retired 7 of his 12 outs via the strikeout.
   This was an impressive outing.  It was only one game, but Perdomo already shows superb command of his fastball.  Time will tell with his secondaries, but this is one live arm.  It's unfortunate that there's no video clip to share, because of the these three strong performances by Blue Jays prospect pitchers, this was the one that stood out the most.

   Greene is by far the closest to MLB ready of the three, but will likely need at least another year of seasoning in the minors.  Harris and Perdomo should both start in full season ball next year, with their starting point being either Lansing or Dunedin.  Harris, despite his struggles, is the more polished of the pair, and may move quickly this season if he's successful.  The Blue Jays ultimately may have to decide if Perdomo is more effective in a relief or starting role.

Post Trade Frenzy Thoughts from a Prospect Perspective

   In the past year, the Blue Jays have traded a huge number of prospects in various deals that have brought back Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki,  David Price, Mark Lowe, and Ben Revere.

 Let's just review for a moment:
For Donaldson:   Frankie Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin.
For Tulo:  Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, Jesus Tinoco.
For Price:  Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Jairo Labourt.
For Lowe:  Nick Wells, Jake Brentz,  Rob Rasmussen
For Revere: Alberto Tirado, Jimmy Cordero

And for international bonus money to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr, the Blue Jays traded Chase De Jong and Tim LoCastro.
   So let's make that 15 prospects - Rasmussen is the only one among that group who wouldn't be considered one.

   No one wants to trade away the next Noah Syndergaard, but the Blue Jays have strengthened themselves considerably in these deals, giving up only a single player from the major league roster.
  As someone who follows prospects extensively, watching them on Milb.tv, and talking with someone about them or even to some of them (or their parents) on Twitter (Matt Boyd will always be one of my favourites), it's easy to create a halo effect with these kids, and think that they have few, if any, faults. The truth is, when prospects are traded, it's generally for one or more of four reasons:

1.  The organization sees a window of opportunity, and feels that there is enough depth in the system
     to eventually replenish what was lost.
2.  The organization felt that said prospect had reached his ceiling, and perhaps did not fit into their
     long range plans.
3.  The prospect's future is so far off that the gamble of dealing them for help now is worth the risk.
4.  The trading partner insisted said prospect be included in the deal.

  We'll never know for certain, of course, but media reports suggest that the inclusion of Barreto and Hoffman were at the other club's insistence.  I can't say for certain where the other prospects fit, but I think it's safe to say that the Blue Jays may not have been as reluctant to part with them.
   What were some of the possible blemishes?
With Barreto, who is currently on the 7-Day DL, it continues to be his play at short.  After a very slow start, his bat has rallied, and he's hitting .298/.329/.492 for Oakland's Advanced A club, and he was named Baseball America's 23rd Top Prospect in their mid-season rankings, but his lack of quickness, footwork, and arm strength will likely mean a position switch soon.
  Graveman has pitched very well of late for Oakland after a rough start,  but his flyball rate and 4.76 FIP may not have played in the Rogers Centre as well as it has in cavernous O.Co Coliseum.
  Nolin's career has been marked by an inability to stay healthy, and while he's pitched well for Oakland's AAA affiliate, he's on the DL, and has thrown only 33 innings for them this season.
   Hoffman drew raves earlier this season, but has not missed bats at the rate the Blue Jays likely had hope for.  He is only 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and his command has been slow to return. He has generated a great deal of ground ball outs, which will be essential for a Coors Field starter.
   Castro went from Short Season ball to Blue Jays closer (albeit only briefly) in the space of 9 months, and while he's worked his way back to a relief role in AAA, his lack of secondary pitches may keep him there for the time being, and he still has a way to go in commanding both sides of the plate.  If he can keep the ball down in the zone better, he could be a dominant MLB reliever.
   Tinoco is young, and was right around the Midwestern League averages in strikeout rate.  Blue Jays minor league catcher Danny Jansen told me last year that Tinoco's two-seam fastball has incredible sink when it's on.  He has a live arm, but he's still a long distance from the major leagues.
   Norris started the season with the Blue Jays, but found himself back in Buffalo after a month.  Norris seems to cruise along for most of his starts, and then loses the strike zone completely for an inning.  Whispers about his delivery concerns and possible elbow issues have grown louder as the season has progressed.  He has brilliant last year, and his 2014 season was one of the best a Blue Jays minor league pitcher has ever had.  He immediately takes over Price's spot in the rotation - welcome back to the big leagues, kid.
   Boyd has been one of the best pitchers in all of minor league baseball this year.  His first big league start was a huge success, and then he was rocked by the Red Sox in his second start, leaving the game in the first without having recorded an out.  Like most successful athletes, Boyd quickly put that behind him, and has pitched effectively in Buffalo ever since.  There was no room for him in Toronto's rotation, however.
   Labourt is yet another electric arm, but has had command issues over the past two seasons.  Again, like Tinoco, it's very hard to project someone who is still so far away from the bigs.
  Wells, a southpaw 3rd round California HS pick last year, had a decent pro debut, but has struggled a bit in Bluefield this year.  Brentz did not pitch until his senior year of High School,  and in his third year of pro ball is still a bit of a project - we've been waiting for the results to match his potential.
   Tirado was called a "beast in the making" by Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus two seasons ago; he struggled in his first shot at full season ball with Lansing last year, and finished the season in Vancouver's bullpen.  Pitching again in relief for Dunedin this year, he has fared much better, and may be an arm that will rise to the majors quickly.  Cordero can light up the radar gun, but without a lot of movement, and sometimes not a great idea as to where his fastball is going.
  De Jong repeated Lansing this year, with much better results, and had just been promoted to Dunedin at the time of his trade.  He, along with Boyd, former Jays prospect Joe Musgrove, and current Jay farmhand Dalton Pompey all made Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet this week, making it a pretty good week for the Toronto scouting department. Lo Castro is a modern-day Ron Hunt, willing to do anything to get on base, including being hit by a pitch.  Lo Castro's makeup is off the charts.

   After having written glowingly about that group for some time, I may have seemed overly negative about them in the above paragraphs, but sometimes you have to take a step back and look at prospects from a more critical standpoint.  And while you have to give something in order to get something, I've always felt that for many prospects, there must have been something in their physical or mental makeup that made them expendable from the club's perspective.  It's easy to overvalue your prospects, and sometimes you need to look at their weaknesses as well as their strengths.  The Blue Jays gave up a ton of potential to improve their major league roster, but this was a calculated risk.  This was not a toss at a dart board - despite some criticism on social media about their analytics department, the Blue Jays, who make such deals by a consensus of front office staff, have crunched the numbers, and could likely recite each prospect's scouting reports in their sleep.  And at the end of the day, prospects are just that - players who have a chance.  Outside of Norris, Graveman, and perhaps Boyd, they gave up no one who could stick on a major league roster tomorrow.

  And having said all that, let's remember one thing.  The Blue Jays acquired David Cone, then one of the top pitchers in baseball and a free agent-to-be at the trade deadline in 1992 for prospects Ryan Thompson and Jeff Kent.  Thompson turned into not much more than a marginal MLB player, while Kent amassed over 2400 hits, hit more Home Runs than any MLB 2nd baseman, drove in 90 runs every year from 1997 to 2005, and is a borderline Hall of Famer.  Cone led the Blue Jays to their first ever World Series that year, and even though he left the team after the 92 season, is there anyone who has ever said, "gee, I wish we had kept Kent?"   In 1993, the Blue Jays made another deadline deal, picking up Rickey Henderson for prospects Steve Karsay (a 1990 1st rounder) and Jose Herrera.  Karsay had a couple of decent seasons in a 9-team, 11 year career as a reliever, and Herrera played in parts of two big league seasons.  Both trades go to show that with prospects, in most cases, you never know how they will turn out, and even if they do go on to have successful MLB careers, a ring for the player obtained for them is more than enough to counter-balance that.  Farm systems serve several functions for MLB teams; the main one, of course, is to supply a steady stream of new talent to the parent club.  It also serves as a holding tank for injury replacement players.  And even going back to the time of Branch Rickey, who pioneered the modern-day farm system, it serves as means of strengthening the major league club.
 
It's not all doom and gloom for the Blue Jays minor league system, either.  Yes, they gave up some depth, but through this trading frenzy, they still managed to hang onto some top prospects.  Anthony Alford and Rowdy Tellez remain Blue Jays, and we all should be happy about that, because while both are still a couple of seasons away, both project as impact players one day.  They also kept RHP Sean Reid-Foley, who surely was a coveted target, and even though he's had some control issues this year, is pitching at High A at the age of 19 in only his second pro season.  And I haven't even written about Vladimir Guerrero, Jr yet. Flags do indeed fly forever, but laying waste to a farm system is truly a short-sighted move, and the Blue Jays certainly factored in the remaining depth of talent when they made these deals.
  Who are some other names who move up several slots in the Top Prospect pecking order?  Here are notes about a few:
Conner Greene - RHP, 7th rounder in 2013, just keeps getting better and better; started with Lansing, promoted to Dunedin, hasn't given up a run in his last two starts.
Jon Harris - this year's 1st rounder has not had the success with Vancouver that we thought he might have, but still profiles as a mid-rotation starter, and should fare better next year.
Angel Perdomo - the Jays have taking things slowly with the 6'6" Dominican lefty, but he's missed a lot of bats through his brief minor league career.
Juliandry Higuera - in his first stateside season, the 20 yr old Venezuelan has been Bluefield's best pitcher.
Lupe Chavez  - 17 yr old Mexican RHP was a top-ranked IFA last year; pitching in the Dominican Summer League, has gotten better with every start.
Matt Smoral - the 6'8" LHP was a comp pick in 2012, and has teased us with brief glimpses of dominance in a career slowed by injuries.  I had fully expected him to start with Lansing, but back issues have limited him to 8 innings between Dunedin and Bluefield.  If he ever puts it all together...
Jose Espada - the 5th rounder from this year's draft has impressed in the GCL.
Reggie Pruitt  - I was pretty sure the 24th round Georgia HS would go the college route; he signed for $500K and has had a solid debut in the GCL
Rodrigo Orozco - some of my fellow prospect bloggers were stumped by his name; the 20 year old Panamanian played the last two season in the DSL, and according to Brian Woodfield, who covers the Appy League for the Bluefield Daily Telegraph:

Orozco has been their best player in my opinion. Good leadoff batter, gets on base. High average and speed. Good range

 There are other names, to be sure, and I have my work cut out for me when I compile my Top 10 and Next 10 lists after the fall.  Even putting together my daily list of Blue Jays starters was a bit of a tough task today:

#BlueJays MiLB starters: Buffalo - ? New Hampshire - Lee Dunedin - ? Lansing - Robson Vancouver - Smith? Bluefield - ? Wow.

— Clutchlings (@Clutchlings77) August 1, 2015

  What the acquisition of the five players who cost that bundle does for the above remaining prospects is that it has bought them some time.  It's also removed some names above them that could help accelerate their development.  I've only been doing this prospect thing for a few years, but I can't recall a deadline day quite like this past one.  My Twitter timeline was blowing up, and I had to silence my phone in order to satisfy my wife, who is otherwise quite patient with my obsession.  To summarize - the Blue Jays did give up quite a bit of depth in their minor league system in order to significantly upgrade their roster.  This represents a huge risk, but the system is still in reasonably good shape in terms of prospects (if not in terms of MLB-ready ones).  And at the end of the day, as Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler said:

@Clutchlings77 With great respect to the sea of baseball talents, as someone once said, "prospect" means they haven't done anything yet.

— Jesse G-S (@jgoldstrass) August 1, 2015

  I leave the final word to New Hampshire southpaw Johnny Anderson:

RT if you're a lefty still in the Blue Jays org #oh

— johnny anderson (@j0hnny_anderson) July 31, 2015

Top 10 Prospects Mid-Season Update

 Time for a mid-season update of how the Blue Jays Top 10 prospects are progressing.  This is not a re-ranking of my Top 10 - because progress in not measured in a straight line, I prefer to let a season play out before I re-evaluate my list.

1.  Daniel Norris
   Last year, of course, was a whirlwind for the 2011 draftee.  Starting the year in High A, he picked up where he had left off after a strong second half of 2013.  Norris was the minor league pitcher of the month for May, pitched in the Futures Game, and capped off his 2014 by striking out David Ortiz in his MLB debut.
   The plan for Norris this spring was to battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, with further seasoning at Buffalo a very real possibility if he didn't win the job.  The knee injury to Marcus Stroman, of course, laid waste to that and other Blue Jays rotation plans, and Norris headed north with the team to open the season.
  And he clearly wasn't ready.
  After getting roughed up by the Braves in his third start, Norris went 7 innings against the Rays, and appeared to be turning things around.  In what turned out to be his final start against the Indians, however, he was lifted after only 3 innings, having thrown only 42 of his 78 pitches for strikes.  Manager John Gibbons, and GM Alex Anthopolous had clearly seen enough.  Relying on his four seam fastball, Norris was not able to throw it often enough for strikes, and when he did, hitters were teeing off on it:

Brooksbaseball.net

  The one concern I've had with Norris is his pitch management.  Everything will be going along well for him, then he will lose the strike zone in an inning, and up goes the pitch count.  Repeating his delivery seems to be the key - there were concerns in April about a possible velocity drop, but his fastball seems to have come back; it's just his command that appears to be the issue.
   Norris appears to be becoming more consistent over the past two months - he's thrown about 63% of his pitches for strikes, and is generating more weak contact (about twice as many groundouts as flyouts). Forget Norris' 2-10 record for Buffalo since his demotion; he receives less run support than any other Bisons pitcher.  At 22, there's little reason to worry about this apparent step backwards.  With trade rumours swirling about, and reports of many scouts watching his Bisons' starts, Norris likely will pitch again in the majors this season - the question might be where.

2.  Aaron Sanchez
   Sanchez has moved on from this list, and even though he's nearing the end of a rehab stint, looks like he's in the majors to stay.
  Sanchez, of course, was to be part of that 5th-starters battle this spring, with a possible move back to the bullpen if he lost the competition.  Winning the 4th spot with the shuffling that took place after Stroman's surgery, Sanchez scuffled a bit in his first few starts, but as April gave way to May and June, the just-turned 23 year old was growing up right before our very eyes.  After pitching a career-high 8 innings against the Astros, he missed his next start due to what we were told was normal soreness, and was placed on the DL soon after.  His rehab has come along slowly, although Sanchez pronounced himself ready to return after hs last start with Buffalo, but Bisons Manger Gary Allenson, after watching him fall behind 11 of the 17 hitters he faced, wasn't so sure.  
   Was an 8-inning performance too much to ask at this stage of Sanchez's career?  You can understand why Manager John Gibbons may have preferred to let him stay in, rather than turn things over to the beleaguered Blue Jays bullpen.  We all know about pitch counts and innings limits.  A topic I want to research is "pitch cost," a term introduced by Pirates beat reporter Travis Sawchik in his excellent Big Data Baseball, his summary of Pittsburgh's rise to contention through the use of analytics.  Pitch cost, originally coined by former Baseball Prospectus writer and current Pirates Director of Baseball Systems Development Dan Fox, takes into account the fact that not every pitch places the same amount of stress on a pitcher's elbow and shoulder.  Pitches are weighted according to the type of pitch and the leverage of the game situation in which the pitch is thrown.  The exact formula is proprietary, but it would be interesting to look back at the pitches Sanchez threw that game, and how many high leverage situations he faced.  With the Blue Jays deciding to move him into the bullpen because of his command issues, and the lack of time to get him back to a starting pitcher's pitch count, one thing is for certain: he hasn't been the same since that 8-inning start.

3.  Dalton Pompey
   In many ways, Pompey's breakout 2014 mirrored Norris' year.  And like Norris, he was deemed not quite ready for prime time after a month in the bigs in 2015.
  Pompey's struggles at the plate jogged out with him to the outfield, surprisingly, and the Blue Jays wisely sent him back to Buffalo to get his confidence back.  He continued to struggle at the plate there, however, and the team decided that Western New York was still a little too close to home, so the Mississauga product was sent down to New Hampshire, away from the limelight, to get himself back together.
   Which he has done - and then some.
   Hitting just .222/.300/.263 at Buffalo, Pompey has torn up AA pitching, putting up a .950 OPS for the Fisher Cats, and from all reports, squaring up a lot of balls, earning him a promotion back to AAA.
   With Pompey's name mildly circulating in trade rumours, he, like Norris, is bound to be back in the bigs this year, destination unknown.  Which brings about a question - can a Canadian ever play for an extended period of time for the Blue Jays?  Is carrying the weight of a winner-starved hometown's expectations too much of a burden to carry?  No Canuck position player has ever held a long-term regular role with the Blue Jays.  Granted, no one of Pompey's talents has come along, but I think it's a question worth asking, and while my preference is to see an outfield with Pompey and Anthony Alford in it one day, I won't be surprised if the local kid makes his name playing somewhere else.

4.  Jeff Hoffman
   Hoffman's name has widely circulated in social media as possible trade bait for the Blue Jays to use to help upgrade their major league roster before the trade deadline.
  Wise people know better.  Hoffman's a keeper.
   The 9th overall pick in last year's draft made his pro debut in May with Dunedin, just over a year after having undergone Tommy John surgery.  And while you can't argue that he's been lights out, his velocity has returned, and his wipeout curveball has already been labelled one of the best in the minors.
   Like all TJ patients, Hoffman's command has been the last tool in the kit to return, but all evidence suggests that it's coming.  Promoted to AA this past week, Hoffman had a solid debut at that level, giving up 5 hits and 2 earned runs in 6 innings last night.
  Some will point to the relatively low strikeout totals (just under 6 per 9IP over 60 minor league innings) as a cause for concern.  I counter that with the almost 3:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio he posted over his last 3 starts prior to his promotion as evidence that he's progressing.
  Hoffman, at this point, is not ready to contribute to the major league club, and it would be foolish to assume otherwise.  Yes, he could make an Aaron Sanchez-like impact in September with a pared-down arsenal of pitches, but a pennant race is no time for experimentation like that (while he didn't exactly pitch in a pressure-packed September environment last year, Sanchez had almost a month and a half to grow into that role prior to September).  Let him continue to develop his full complement of pitches in the minors, refine his command, maybe send him to the Arizona Fall League for some more innings, then give him every chance to win a rotation spot in 2016.

5.  Roberto Osuna
   A year ago, if you had told me that Osuna would be the most effective performer in the Blue Jays bullpen, I would have said that Canada winning Pan-Am Baseball Gold against the USA on an errant pick-off throw in extra innings would have been more likely.
   In July of last year, Osuna was about to make his return from Tommy John surgery performed in 2013, and while the K rate was encouraging, he struggled with his command in both the Florida State and Arizona Fall Leagues.  Osuna impressed early in spring training this year, and even when the hitters began to get their timing down by late March, he was still lights out in relief.  Brought north with the team when camp broke, it's hard to think of where the Blue Jays bullpen would be without him.  What's even more encouraging is the prospect of him in a starter's role next year.  He has an advanced feel for pitching that's allowed him to get MLB hitters out in late game situations, even at the tender age of 20.

6.  Miguel Castro 
   With the exception of Norris, Pompey, and maybe Kendall Graveman, no prospect made as much progress last year as Castro did.
   The Blue Jays openly mused about using him in relief in 2015 as early as last November.  His electric fastball (and slowly developing secondaries) made him a good candidate, and when he opened spring training with a slew of scoreless appearances, his stock soared.  Even as hitters began to time him better over the last half of March, his status didn't waver, and he opened the season as a back end of the bullpen reliever, and was anointed closer in the season's first week, when Brett Cecil was unable to answer the bell on Opening Day.
   Castro was overmatched in the role, of course.  And maybe having a youngster just three months removed from his 20th birthday, who hadn't even pitched a full season stateside, as the closer was the equivalent of throwing Castro in the deep end in the hopes that he could master the butterfly stroke.  His fastball was its usual vapour-trail self, averaging 97 through the month, but his slider came in at 82 - too much of a separation to be effective.  A pumped Castro then tried to blow his four seamer past hitters, but it can be a difficult pitch to control, and he found the meat of the strike zone too often with it.  In the minors, he could get away with that;  MLB hitters made him pay a heavy price for living in the high rent district that is the middle of the strike zone:

   The news is not all bad, of course.  Sent down to AAA to be stretched out as a starter, Castro missed most of June with a thumb injury, and the the Blue Jays wisely returned him to the bullpen upon his return. His last two outings for Buffalo have been strong ones, so there's a high probability we'll see him back in the bigs before summer is over.

7.  Richard Urena
   Outside of Anthony Alford, no Blue Jays position prospect has made as much progress as Urena this year.  At 19, his promotion from Lansing to Dunedin caught me a bit by surprise, as I thought he would be given a whole year in Low A.  As the organization has proved with their young pitchers, however, they are not afraid to challenge a prospect, and they have sent Urena, who was among the Midwest League Home Run hitters, to the next level, where he is now the youngest player in the Florida State League.
  Urena's pop is a surprise - he hit 12 in a tough hitter's park and league with Lansing, far surpassing his career total of 3.  Hitting lefthanders continues to be a bit of a challenge for him, however.  Just the same, he has barreled up a lot of balls this year, and when you add to that his premium defence, he is Jose Reyes' successor.

8.  Max Pentecost
   We've been waiting a while to see the second of the Blue Jays first round draft choices.  His pro debut last year was limited to 25 games (much of it as a DH), and he was shut down in early August with what turned out to be shoulder woes.  Surgery in October was reportedly successful, although he wasn't ready to start the season.  Word came a month ago that he was throwing again, and not far from returning to action.  Just today came news via fellow prospect blogger Charlie Caskey that Pentecost had a setback last week, and has been shut down once again, his season likely over.
   Pentecost's name had been mentioned (mostly by fans on social media) in trade rumours as the trade deadline approaches.  If that was a thing, it likely isn't any more.

9.  Devon Travis
   Sometimes, you go out on a limb, and it proves to be worth it.  If anything, in hindsight I wish I had gone further.
   A number of people on Twitter took me to task for suggesting that Travis would make an impact for the Jays at some point.  I wasn't sure if it would be this season or next, and I certainly didn't anticipate his knockout April, but Travis has been exactly as advertised.
   After missing time on the DL, Travis has picked up right where he left off, and has put up a line of .302/.352/.487.  With uber-prospect Carlos Correa playing well since his debut, Travis may not be a lock for American League Rookie of the Year, but he certainly should be in the conversation by season's end if he can keep up this level of play.
   Travis puts the ball in play, gets on base, has good baserunning instincts, plays solid defence, and generally displays a high baseball IQ.  He has filled a huge hole in the Blue Jays lineup that has existed for years.

10. Sean Reid-Foley
   Reid-Foley is another prospect who the Jays have rewarded with aggressive promotions.  In only his second pro season,  he was challenged by an assignment to full-season ball, and recently he was challenged again by a promotion from Lansing to Dunedin. Again, at only 19, I was mildly surprised by this.
  SRF struck out 79 MWL hitters in 54 innings, but his 40 walks come from mechanical issues, an area that he needs to work on before he continues his ascent up the ladder.  Here's what Baseball America's John Manuel had to say about Reid-Foley recently:

Reid-Foley’s stuff is Top 100 worthy for sure. His stuff’s electric, as was described in his draft report last year (just go to his player page to see the report). The scouts we’ve talked to say he’s just not to the point yet where he can fix his own mechanical issues; he needs a coach to figure that out, either in mid-inning or between innings. But he’s not that different from a guy like Grant Holmes that I mentioned earlier, though Holmes has more polish and a bit better breaking ball at this point.

   I watched Reid-Foley's dominant May 30th start with Lansing, and you can read about it here.
His name has been mentioned too in trade talks, but possibly more by people who don't realize that A-ball prospects who aren't in the Top 100 in the minors don't have as much value as they might think.  Still, if he continues to develop, he's not far from Toronto.
   *************************************************************************

Ok - let's acknowledge that Sanchez and Travis have graduated from this list.  While I'm not in favour of re-ranking my Top 10 prospects, I will admit that maybe there's room for two more:

Anthony Alford
   Almost exactly a year ago, Alford was on his way back to Mississippi to get ready for his upcoming wedding and the college football season. after having teased us with a week of jaw-dropping play at Lansing.
  What a difference a year makes.
   Alford gave up on his gridiron dreams in late September, and after catching the tail end of Instructional League play, he and his young bride packed up and headed off to Australia.  Facing veteran pitching the 2012 3rd round pick's inexperience showed down under, as his over-aggressiveness got him into a lot of pitcher's counts.
   An invite to major league camp (as well as a huge contract offer) likely convinced Alford to give up football, and he's made up for lost development time this year as a result.  A fixture at the top of Lansing's lineup, Alford reached base safely in his first 34 games of the year.  Promoted to Dunedin after the MWL All Star game, Alford has not missed a beat, and after going 0-5 in his FSL debut, rattled off a 19 game hit streak.
  There are so many areas Alford has made strides in, but chief among them is pitch recognition.  He isn't striking out as frequently as he did over his first three abbreviated pro seasons, and while he still needs to put more balls in play, he has also shown a drastically improved ability to work the count and take a walk.  Gone is the pull-happy hitter, and in his place is one who uses the whole field, and driving the ball to right-centre more.  The power has yet to manifest itself, but it likely will in time.
  The next jump up the ladder will be one of the biggest ones prospects have to make, and it will give us a true read on Alford when he makes it (likely next year), but both he and the Blue Jays have to be happy with the decision he made last September.

Matt Boyd
   Sometimes, teams draft college seniors to fill out the rosters of their minor league affiliates.  Other times, they draft them with the hope that maybe a full time focus on baseball will accelerate their development.  Such was the case with Boyd.
 Drafted in the 6th round of 2013, Boyd was on his way to his own breakout year in 2014 before elbow issues and inconsistency slowed him down.
  Healthy again, and a devoted disciple of pitching guru Kyle Boddy in the offseason, Boyd added velocity to his fastball, and was far and away the best pitcher in the Eastern League in April and May.  Promoted to Buffalo, he found himself in Toronto a few weeks later, making his MLB debut - and it was a good one.
  The next start - not so much.
  Boyd was blasted by the Red Sox, not retiring a batter and giving up 6 earned runs before being pulled in the 1st.  Undeterred, he has been his usual effective self since his return to Buffalo.  His name also popped up in trade talks, but that outing against Boston has silenced much of it.

Honourable Mention
Rowdy Tellez - the former California HS legend was not content to be just a bopper; he came into spring training in incredible shape, and it has paid off in spades on defence and at the plate.  Promoted to Dunedin a few weeks ago, Tellez has continued to mash.  He's still far off, but this may be a bat for the future.

What to Expect from Matt Boyd

  Before we begin, a disclaimer:

   I've been a Blue Jays fan since Day One.  My parents, knowing that their youngest son was obsessed with baseball (a trait inherited from his father and brother), let me skip school the afternoon of that snowy 1977 Home Opener.
   I have also been a fan of minor league baseball for much of that time.  In the pre-internet days of the early 90s, I booked a conference in Woodstock, ON, not for the professional skills upgrading it would give me as much as because the Expos AA team, which featured Rondell White and Cliff Floyd, would be visiting nearby London, then home to the Tigers AA team, for a series.  I had been reading about the pair in Baseball America for some time.
   I have been writing for prospects for three seasons now.  Matt Boyd is the first prospect that I have followed from MLB draft to the major leagues.  I've corresponded with him on Twitter, and I have found him to be a genuine and likeable young man.  He is very devout, and plans to do some volunteer ministry work with his young bride Ashley.  His college coach Pat Casey had this tribute:

“When you coach young men—and it’s difficult enough, but he’s a no-maintenance guy,” Casey said of Boyd. “He takes care of everything. He goes to school, does well in school, trains. He’s the guy you never have to worry about. He’s just easy to coach; he’s just a great kid . . . And he’s just—he’s a really fun kid to coach and he’s a great man.”

   I say all of this because I know that a journalist should try to be impartial.  Having said that, just as I have said many times that I'm not a scout, I'm not really a journalist, either.  Boyd is my first prospect graduate, so while I'll try to be objective, I'm not making any promises.

*********************************************************************************

   Matt Boyd grew up in the Seattle area, and played both baseball and hockey as a youngster.  He was good enough at the latter sport to have made a regional development team as a teenager before giving up hockey to focus on baseball.
   Boyd has an interesting family tree, claiming distant relations with both former First Lady Dolly Madison and Hall of Fame pitcher Bob Feller.
   Boyd attended Oregon State, and pitched out of the bullpen for his first three years.  The Reds took him in the 12th round after his junior season, but he opted to return to school for another season - a wise decision, as it turned out.  He was converted to a starter for his senior year, and pitched a complete game four-hit shutout in OSU's 2nd round game in the College World Series.
    The Blue Jays took Boyd in the 6th round that year (2013), and he pitched at Lansing and Dunedin, but was likely feeling the effects of a long college season.  Boyd broke out in 2014 - he had a better April/May than Kendall Graveman or even Daniel Norris, and earned a promotion to AA New Hampshire.  After being lights out in High A, Boyd had his struggles at the higher level.  A foot injury, plus pressing too hard caused Boyd to get hit early and often, and he found himself back at Dunedin, only to be promoted for another brief stint with New Hampshire when they needed starting help.  Boyd came back to help the D-Jays make a run at a Florida State League title, but he was lit up by a prospect-laden Daytona squad.
   Boyd's late-season struggles could be at least partially attributed to bone chips, which he successfully had removed after the season.   Boyd also adopted a new training regimen, working with rising pitching guru Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball, a Tacoma-based pitcher training company.  I had several reports this spring that he had a spike in velocity, and his new program had to be a part of it.
   Boyd has an effective four-pitch arsenal.  His fastball now touches 96, and sits 92-94.  His delivery can be deceptive, as he has a high leg kick and a slight pause in his delivery.  It used to be said that he lacked a true out pitch, but that no longer seems to be the case - his fastball now is his best pitch, and complements his secondary pitches.  Boyd pounds the strike zone down low, and is getting better at pitch sequencing with almost every outing.  When he gets into trouble, it's usually because of command issues - Boyd can lose the strike zone, but only for short periods of time.  Because he strikes out a lot of batters, his pitch count tends to go up in a hurry, but he has shown a better ability to economize his pitches and induce weak contact.  He does give up the odd long ball, and he tends to give up more flyball than groundball contact sometimes, but he doesn't hurt himself with walks.  Hitters have had a tough time barreling him up, for the most part.
   Boyd  has gone from being an organization (roster-filler) guy to one of the best pitching prospects in the system - one of the best in all of the minors, even - in a relatively short period of time.  He shows an advanced feel for pitching, and while prospects tend to struggle in their first few starts as they adjust to major league hitters, I think Boyd has a bright future.  What should you expect from him?  He will need some time, but a mid-rotation starter is his likely ceiling.

  What are other evaluators saying?  There is something of a discrepancy amongst them, possibly because some haven't factored in the velocity bump this year.

  Here's what Al Skorupa of Baseball Prospectus had to say about Boyd recently:

At his best, Boyd is filling the zone with a four-pitch mix of near-average pitches. On the downside, the FB isn’t big enough, the command is below average and there’s no out pitch. Boyd has a 50 FB (88-92,m t92) with sinking action. His command really eluded him in the first couple innings last start, but he picked it up and limited the damage in the meantime. In limiting the damage he showed me he has some feel for pitching and setting up hitters. Boyd seemed to have a lot of trouble repeating his hand break and I think that might have hurt him early....., I thought the SL (77-80) had the most potential, but I still rated it as an future average pitch. It’s a 1-7 slurve that he throws for strikes and as a chase, but the shape and command were inconsistent..... we’ve got a 69-71 good high school type, big, slow loopy CB. It flashed some downer action and I wouldn’t trashcan the pitch, but it’s best as a mix-up and used to give a different look against opposite handed hitters. The CH (76-83) was also a little too inconsistent for me to really get behind it despite some above-average flashes. Often too firm, the pitch was thrown with good arm speed and he put it in the perfect spot a couple times. Boyd looks like another role 40/no. 5 starter/middle reliever to me. I could see him helping the Blue Jays pen in 2015.

   Ezra Jones of minorleagueball.com had the following projection:

Many saw Boyd as a finesse back end starter at the beginning of the season, but as his fastball has progressed and his numbers continue to be stellar, I see him as, if all works out, a solid #3 starter. Boyd has good composure on the mound and has very good control and command, walking few and striking out many. He does give up fly balls easily, especially when he leaves his change-up up in the zone, as just over 40% of the batted balls he gave up were fly balls.

This could end up as a larger problem if he cannot keep down the number of homers he gives up. This is less of an issue now, as his better fastball is inducing more pop ups. An interesting fact is that Steamer, a projection system, saw him as a league average starter in the majors this year.

   By the numbers:   I'm not a big stats-based scouting guy (I'm not a scout, remember?), but here are Boyd's stats between two levels this year:

W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	HB	BB	IBB	SO	AVG	WHIP	GO/AO
7	2	1.26	14	14	0	0	0	0	85.2	51	15	12	5	2	18	0	82	.171	0.81	0.40

They're pretty convincing.

  I've written extensively about Boyd, probably as much as any Blue Jays prospect not named Anthony Alford..  You can read about his off-season regimen in more detail here, and I charted his April 20th start (while he still was with New Hampshire), and you can read about that here, if you so desire.   Finally, here's a look at his delivery:

Blue Jays Short Season Rosters Coming into Focus

Michael Fabiaschi photo

  

 With play in short season ball opening later this week and the MLB draft over and done with, it's time to turn our attention to the likely rosters of the three affiliates the Blue Jays have at this level.

  The lowest rung of the ladder is the Gulf Coast League.  Teams are housed at the spring training complexes of their major league clubs (there's a league in Arizona, too).  Players practice early in the morning, and then play a late morning game in the hopes of avoiding the hot Florida sun.  Attendance figures are not kept (because the crowds are sparse), and up until a few years ago, there wasn't even a playoff at the end of the regular season.  Players from the Caribbean summer leagues, who are getting their first taste of playing stateside, recent high school draftees, and lower-level college picks populate this league.
  The next rung is Rookie ball, and there are several leagues across the US.  The Blue Jays have an affiliate in Bluefield, WV that plays in the Appalachian League.  Players here play "under the lights," usually in front of a couple of hundred fans, and get to experience travel.
  The top rung of short season ball is advanced rookie ball - the Blue Jays have an affiliated team in Vancouver, with the Northwest League.  High college draftees and players who have had a season or two of pro ball play in this league.  Vancouver has a hugely successful club on an off the field.  They are one of the best-run organizations in all of minor league ball, and after winning three straight NWL finals, lost in the final last year.
   I have a source in the Gulf Coast League who sweats it out and sends me photos and updates.  I've never been to Bluefield, but the park looks like it was carved out of the Appalachian forest, and I plan to head there in 2016 or 2017.  Vancouver is a great place to watch a game.  The crowds are huge, and the stadium has undergone extensive renovations.  If I went to a game again, I would probably check (either by calling or emailing) to make sure my seat wasn't an obstructed one.  There are 6 pillars supporting the grandstand, and our seats on the 1st base side of home had an effectively blocked view of the hitters.  Luckily, the seats beside ours were empty, so we were able to move down - that doesn't happen often.  The selection of craft beers at the park helped to make up for it somewhat, but that is a caution I would give when buying tickets.

Let's start at the top, and look at Vancouver's roster so far (players will be added in the next few days).
The Canadians have a nice mix of pitching on their roster.  The top prospect (at the moment) would have to be Clinton Hollon, a 2nd round pick in 2013 who the Jays took despite a partial UCL tear that needed surgery to fix a year ago.  Hollon has an electric arm, and hits 96 with his fastball. Reports I've had about him this spring say he's back to his old velocity.  Daniel Lietz was undrafted out of high school, but hit the weight room, and added velo, causing the Blue Jays to take him in the 5th round in 2013.  He's repeating Vancouver.  Evan Smith is a tall, lean lefty the Blue Jays took ahead of Lietz.
As for position players, Lane Thomas is the most promising at the moment.  A bit of a sleeper last year, the Blue Jays took him last year in the 5th round, and he played well at two levels.  It sounds like he may have been hurt this spring, and didn't get into a full slate of games in Extended Spring Training.   At 5'10", 155 lbs, Juan Kelly may not look like a corner infielder, but the 1st baseman has some pop projected in his bat. Juan Tejada drew some rave reviews for his power in the GCL last year.
 At the moment, this team doesn't look to have the same talent level that past Vancouver has had. That should change as news filters in about signed draft picks.  At this point Jon Harris, Carl Wise, JC Cardenas, Travis Bergen, Conor Panas, and Owen Spiwak have signed from amongst the top 10 picks from colleges, so several of them should at least start with Vancouver, giving them a major roster upgrade. There will likely be some lower college picks joining them, too.  Adonys Cardona, who is magnificently talented but has underachieved to this point, may show up in the northwest after recovering from surgery to repair a broken elbow last year.  The Blue Jays signed Cardona out of Venezuela for $2.8M in 2010 - still a record for a Venezuelan signee.  Bend Badler of Baseball America wrote an excellent article on the aftermath of Hugo Chavez's demise in the South American country, and its effects on scouting and player development there.

  Bluefield is a bit of a different story.  They receive players from the GCL and advanced high school picks.  Their roster has only a handful of names on it at the moment, but that will be subject to serious change in the next week as the club decides who's ready to play under the lights, and who needs more time at the complex.  Infielder Deiferson Barreto (no relation to Franklin), who hit well in Extended, should be a lock, and may be joined by Short Stop Yeltsin Gudino, who at 17 was overmatched in the GCL this year, but has added some muscle in the off season. Catcher Matt Morgan was highly regarded, but the fourth round pick from last year had a difficult year at the plate last year, and struggled in Extended.  Freddy Rodriguez, an 18 year old out of Venezuela, had middling numbers in the GCL, but hit over .300 in Extended. 2014 31st rounder Dave Pepe hit .304/.430/.362 in the GCL and in truth was a bit old for that level, and should find himself at Bluefield (or even Vancouver) this year.
  On the pitching side, 2014 6th rounder Grayson Huffman pitched well in the GCL and Appy Leagues this year, and may start in Bluefield.  Expect him to move quickly if he pitches well again.
Angel Perdomo, who averaged over 11K/9 in the GCL last year, will follow Huffman's path, as well as 2014 3rd rounder Nick Wells.  Jake Brentz, a lightning-armed lefty who can hit 97 with his fastball, is likely headed to Bluefield as well.  Depending on who winds up there, Bluefield has the makings of a good rotation.
   The GCL Jays roster is one of the hardest to predict.  They will likely feature high school picks Brady Singer (assuming he signs), Justin Maese, and Jose Espada to start the season, but they likely will accelerate fairly quickly to Bluefield unless their development dictates otherwise.  Juan Meza was the 10th-ranked International prospect last year, and signed with the Jays but did not play for the Dominican Summer League Jays.  He's not on the DSL Jays roster this year (they began play two weeks ago), so the thinking is that he will pitch stateside in the GCL this year. 3B Bryan Lizardo didn't hit well in Extended, but did the in the DSL last year, and appears to be headed to the GCL.  The roster will be filled out with high school and lower round college players.

   Patrick Murphy is one of those players the Blue Jays often seem to find - tall, lean, athletic, and forgotten.  Drafted in the 3rd round of 2013, Murphy missed his senior year of high school competition because of Tommy John surgery.  He didn't make his pro debut until last year, but was shut down in mid-July with shoulder issues.  He had more surgery (likely a clean up) in April.  His debut may be delayed, but he will be looking to get his career back on track in the GCL.
   Jake Anderson was a first round pick (35th overall) in 2010.  A lot of eyebrows were raised by the pick, but after a promising start to his career, he has been sidelined by injuries almost ever since.  Anderson missed all of 2013, and amassed all of 11 PAs with Bluefield last year before being shut down.  Reports from Florida indicate that he didn't play a lot in Extended, and didn't show a great deal, either.  He has a long way to go to resurrect his career, and the GCL may be where he starts.
  A couple more injury notes.........Ryan Borucki, like Murphy, was a high school pitcher with an injury history who the Blue Jays were willing to wait and gamble on.  He rewarded the organization with a solid 2014 at Bluefield and Vancouver, but submitted to surgery once again when he had a clean-out performed on his elbow.  His timetable is unknown, but he may see time at Vancouver once he's healthy.  Tom Robson underwent Tommy John just over a year ago, and is likely being held back until the start of short season play to at least get a few outings in before returning to full season play, Dunedin being the logical guess.

  ....And, just as I was getting ready to hit the old "publish" button, comes word via Charlie Caskey on Twitter that Cardona was throwing well at Extended, but was having some discomfort in his surgically-repaired elbow.  The surgeons had to insert another plate and do some extra work on the repair, and now Cardona is basically out for the year.
  Adding to the injury report update, thanks to Caskey, is that Max Pentecost, the 2nd of Toronto's first round picks who was banged up thanks to a long college season, was shut down in August, and then underwent shoulder surgery in October, is inching toward game action.  Pentecost is doing all regular hitting and catching activities, but is on a throwing program that has him tossing from 75 to 90 feet.  The hope is that he will be ready to return by the end of the month, and will likely start in Vancouver - much to Caskey's elation.