Once a Blue Jays prospect, always a Blue Jays prospect, in my mind.
Tall (6'4"), stocky (250 lbs) Sean Nolin was a 6th round pick by Toronto in the 2010 draft, from legendary San Jacinto JC. Nolin had been drafted in the late rounds by the Brewers in 2008, and the Mariners in 2009, but the Long Island, NY native turned them down.
Nolin's draft report from Baseball America was decent, but hardly impressive:
At 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds, Sean Nolin looks like a lefthanded version of Jason Jennings. Nolin's fastball will sit at 86-89 mph in some games and 88-92 in others, and he backs it up with a solid changeup and fringy curveball.
Nonetheless, aided especially by that change, he rocketed through the lower levels of the Blue Jays system, striking out more than a batter per inning, reaching AA by 2012. He made his first appearance on the Toronto Top 10 prospects list after that season, but 2012 proved to be the high water mark for his Blue Jays career.
Nolin's 2013 got off to a slow start due to a lingering groin injury, but he was surprisingly added to the 40-man roster in late May, and was rocked for 6 runs in an inning and a third. in his MLB debut against the Orioles. Nolin was sent back to the minors after that start, burning one of his options.
Still, there was plenty to be optimistic about. Fangraphs was still high on Nolin as a back of the rotation innings eater heading into 2014:
Nolin could develop into a solid No. 4 starter with the ability to chew up a ton of innings. The southpaw has good control but is still working to establish consistent fastball command. His heater ranges from the high-80s to the low-90s. His repertoire also includes an above-average changeup and two breaking balls (curveball, slider). Standing 6-5, Nolin needs to do a better job of leveraging his height to create a downward plane on the ball in an effort to work down in the strike zone on a more consistent basis..... the native of New York state has a chance to be a reliable back-of-the-rotation workhorse, and players of that description are harder to come by than you might think — especially ones that throw left-handed. He might be attractive to another organization as a nearly-ready, southpaw hurler should trade discussions turn into something concrete this off-season.
Injuries once again derailed Nolin's 2014, limiting him to 100 innings. By this time, not only had he been passed by the likes of Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, but other prospects like Daniel Norris, Kendall Graveman, Matt Boyd, and Miguel Castro had moved ahead of Nolin in the eyes of the organization. A strong Arizona Fall League campaign redeemed Nolin's status somewhat, but it may have been more to showcase him, as Toronto packaged him in the deal for Josh Donaldson in the November, 2014 deal with Oakland. Again, an inability to stay healthy limited Nolin in 2015, and that, coupled with his lack of remaining options mean that when the Athletics' acquired OF Khris Davis from the Brewers to fill a gap in their lineup yesterday, something had to give in order to create room on the 40-man for Davis. Oakland Designated Nolin for Assignment, meaning they have 10 days to release him, trade him, or place him on waivers, which is the most likely bet - the Athletics haven't necessarily given up on him, but at this point he doesn't fit into their immediate future.
A victim of the numbers game like former fellow Blue Jays farmhand Chad Jenkins, Nolin has demonstrated enough to be an important minor league depth piece, but not enough to continue to occupy a space on a major league roster. His left-handedness and ability to fill up the strike zone will mean that some organization will want him. Oakland knew at the end of the season that he probably didn't fit into their plans for 2016, but hung onto him long enough to make sure that other teams had their rosters full or close to full as spring training approached.
The website SwinginAs.com thought that DFA'ing Nolin was a huge mistake, suggesting that either one-time Blue Jay Felix Doubront, or Aaron Brooks would potentially contribute less than Nolin to the A's rotation. Susan Slusser, who covers the Athletics for the San Francisco Chronicle, was surprised at the move, and wondered if it was made because the club thought they might be able to sneak Nolin through waivers, or because he could bring back some value in a trade.
Either way, Oakland appears to be cutting bait from the Donaldson deal: they do have Franklin Barreto, who is among the top prospects in the game, but now Nolin risks becoming a former A, along with trade-mate Brett Lawrie.
I remember it like it was just yesterday: word came out via Twitter on a Friday night in late November that the Blue Jays had acquired Josh Donaldson from the Athletics, in return for Brett Lawrie and a package of minor leaguers.
As someone who follows the day-by-day progress of players in the Blue Jays system, I held my breath a bit to see who would be in that package. It was easy to figure that a top prospect would be going to the West Coast, with maybe some mid-level guys included. Daniel Norris was the obvious first name to come to mind, but it was a bit surprising to see Franklin Barreto as the player the Athletics wanted in return. After a scintillating 2014, Norris was MLB-ready, or close to it. Barreto, the Northwest League MVP at the tender age of 18, was still a couple of years away from making his MLB debut, and it's hard to see most GM's thinking that far into the future. Except Billy Beane is not most GMs, and obviously felt the young Venezuelan, whose ultimate position in the majors is still a question, was willing to wait. Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin were not huge surprises. Graveman had a 2014 that was the equal of Norris' in terms of ascent, but the feeling likely was that he had reached his ceiling, and the Blue Jays already had a fair stock of back-of-the-rotation arms. Nolin, whose inability to stay healthy had to have cost him in terms of prospect status, was a bit of a victim of a numbers game, with fellow southpaws Norris, Matt Boyd, and Jairo Labourt all ahead of him. Lefty starters in the Blue Jays system now, of course, are something of an endangered species.
And while it was sad to see a good Canadian boy like Lawrie go, it was fairly plain to see that the club had run out of patience with his injury-riddled, underachieving ways. Since his debut, he had shown flashes of brilliance, but on the whole had underwhelmed with his performance. His departure, along with that of Barreto, served to remind that baseball players are assets, and if a GM feels he can improve his roster by dealing one or more of them, he will do it.
Of the package of prospects, Barreto was the prospect I found the most difficult to see depart. I had followed his progress since he signed with the organization in 2012, followed his progress in the GCL in 2013. When he was called up to Bluefield late that season, Clinton Hollon, who had been promoted along with Barreto, tweeted about how young Frankie, who was still not all that fluent in English, was wandering around the Tampa airport, unsure of how, where, or when he was going to catch his flight to the Appalachians. The following season, he was the top player in a league filled with recent college grads 3 and 4 years older than himself. The sky appeared to be the limit, and even though I had yet to see him play live, when friends and followers asked which prospect excited me the most, it was this teenaged Venezuelan.
You can't argue about the return the Blue Jays got for that package of players, of course. Donaldson became only the 2nd player in club history to capture an MVP award, and his season stands with George Bell's 1987 and Carlos Delgado's 2003, and Jose Bautista's 2010 campaigns as the best by a position player since the Blue Jays' inception. It's hard to know where to start when talking about Donaldson's season. He was the first player to score over 120 runs and drive in as many since Albert Pujols in 2009. And he didn't just do it with the bat, either: his 11.4 Defensive Runs Saved ranked 3rd in all of MLB. His fiery, dive into the stands for a foul ball competitive spirit helped lift the team to its first playoff berth in 22 years.
Lawrie was considered one of the top prospects in baseball when the Blue Jays acquired him for Shaun Marcum before the 2011 season. The only blemish on Lawrie's resume was a question about where he would play - drafted out of a Vancouver-area HS as a catcher, he was converted to a 2nd Baseman by the Brewers. The Blue Jays moved him to 3rd, and packed him off to their-then AAA affiliate in Las Vegas. He made his MLB debut in August, and gave fans starved for a homegrown star plenty to dream about with his .293/.373/.580 line in 43 games.
Lawrie just could not stay off the Disabled List after that, playing 125 games the following year, but only 107 in 2013, and 70 in his final year in Toronto. His numbers tailed off in each successive year as well, and by 2014 the former 1st round pick was barely a league average player.
What happened to a player of such promise? For starters, Lawrie did not fit the power profile of a corner bat, and it's curious to know why Toronto felt he could be. He did hit 18 Home Runs in the rarefied air of Las Vegas over a little more than half a minor league season, but his slugging totals never put him in the top tier of Hot Cornermen. Did he know that, and press harder to overcome that, or did the pressure of playing in front of his fellow Canucks cause him to try too hard in a game where sometimes less is more? Whatever the case, Lawrie's walk rates trended down every year during his time in the blue and white, and his strikeout rate went the opposite direction. Either through his own over-aggressiveness, or by pitchers challenging him from the start, he had 0-1 counts almost 65% of the time, meaning that he was more often than not facing pitchers; counts. More of a line drive than a fly ball hitter, Lawrie was never able to take advantage of the Rogers Centre's hitter-friendly dimensions. Unlike Jose Bautista (who posted the lowest line drive rate among all MLB hitters this year at 13.9%), or even Donaldson, Lawrie was not able to add some loft to his swing and put some balls into the Rogers Centre jetstream.
Lawrie's numbers did not figure to improve in the spacious O.co Coliseum, and they didn't in 2015, although he played in a career-high 149 games, 25 better than his high with the Blue Jays. His steady descent into the realm of a replacement-level player continued, however. Lawrie's OBP and OPS were both below league average, and his Walk and K rates put him among the lowest contact makers in the game. His defence was not a saving grace, either, as his -8.7 Defensive Runs Saved ranking put him ahead of only the largely immobile Pablo Sandoval among MLB 3rd Basemen. Lawrie did establish career highs in Home Runs (16) and RBIs (60).
Graveman is who he is - a back of the rotation arm who has the potential to eat up some innings. In a bit of an up and down year, he made the team out of spring training, was sent down for a month of AAA action at the end of April, and was back to stay for good in June. Graveman went on a two-month run following his return to the bigs, posting a 2.01 ERA in 8 starts. A strained oblique put him on the DL in late August, and the Athletics opted not to bring him back with the team out of contention.
Graveman had a respectable 50% Ground ball rate, but gave up a lot of medium and hard contact (81.6%), and not much (15.4%) of the soft variety. Simply put, he didn't miss as many bats in the big leagues as he did in his rise through the minors last year. He has to be considered a strong candidate to land a mid-rotation job again next year. Graveman is very athletic, and is capable of making the adjustments necessary to avoid barrels on a greater basis than he did in 2015.
Nolin was unable to remain healthy in 2015, tossing only 47 AAA innings before getting a September call-up. He pitched reasonably well in 6 starts, but his velocity was in the mid-80s, and he had trouble limiting his walks, giving up 12 in 26 innings. Once upon a time, he profiled as one of those innings eaters, but over the past several years, the innings have eaten him. The 119 innings he threw at several levels (including the Arizona Fall League) last year is the highest total he's managed since turning pro in 2010. It's hard to see Nolin being anything than a fringy major leaguer at this point, unless he can stay healthy long enough to see some regular work.
Which brings us to Barreto, the likely centrepiece of the deal from Oakland's perspective. Skipping Low A, Barreto played at High A Stockton this year, and overcame a slow start and injuries which limited him to 90 games to post a decent line of .302/.333/.500. And while there was some concern about the consistency of his swing, it's important to remember that Barreto was playing in his first year of full-season ball at the age of 19.
Barreto was a much-heralded youth player in his native Venezuela, and was already well-known in baseball circles when the Blue Jays signed him in 2012. He was ranked the Northwest League's Top Prospect last season, when he also cracked Baseball America's Top 100 for the first time. This year, he had made it all the way up to the Top 25 (at 22nd), and was named the California League's 2nd Top Prospect. A position switch is drawing very near for Barreto, who has neither the footwork or arm to stick at Short - his Venezuelan League team has played him in the Outfield during this winter league season. Just the same, he barrels up balls frequently, and still profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat.
Who "won" the trade, then?
Obviously, Toronto. Barreto is a future blue chipper, Lawrie may still turn things around (he's only 25), and Graveman and maybe even Nolin will give the Athletics some innings. But Donaldson was almost a 9 WAR player this year, and with another year of team control will provide a 2016 of similar value. And even if you wait the customary 3-4 years to judge a trade, Toronto will still have gotten the better of Oakland. Donaldson has proven to be a franchise player - one whose impact on the team was felt on and off the field. He set an example not only to his teammates, but to all players in the organization with his work ethic - only a week into Spring Training last year, I asked Anthony Alford, who was in his first big league spring camp with the team, who impressed him the most, and he said Donaldson without hesitation. Barreto was likely the centerpiece of the deal from an Oakland perspective, so to be fair, we have to say that Toronto won the deal for now. Breaking a two decades-plus playoff drought is the added component to evaluating this trade. No disrespect to Lawrie, but this team probably does not break through even with him in the lineup for 149 games. Donaldson brought a desire to win that seemed, to a fan, to be lacking in previous years - a penchant for clutch hits, daring baserunning, and diving into the stands that lit a serious fire under this team, and only intensified when the club was drastically upgraded at the trade deadline.
In many ways, the deal captured the essence of both Alex Anthopoulos and Beane. The former, who espoused the roll-the-dice strategy when it came to trades and draft picks, opted to patiently build up the farm system, and then use its depth to strengthen the big club. The latter showed that he's not afraid to deal a player whose affordability window is rapidly closing, even if it's likely that player will succeed with his new team. Both, of course, are no longer GMs, with Beane now running the baseball side from the executive suite in Oakland, and Anthopoulos looking for a similar gig elsewhere. There's little doubt that both would probably make that deal again.
If re-signing David Price is the first task of the new management team of Tony LaCava and Mark Shapiro, locking up Donaldson to a long-term deal should be the second. Or maybe even the first.
In the past year, the Blue Jays have traded a huge number of prospects in various deals that have brought back Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, David Price, Mark Lowe, and Ben Revere.
Let's just review for a moment:
For Donaldson: Frankie Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin.
For Tulo: Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, Jesus Tinoco.
For Price: Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Jairo Labourt.
For Lowe: Nick Wells, Jake Brentz, Rob Rasmussen
For Revere: Alberto Tirado, Jimmy Cordero
And for international bonus money to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr, the Blue Jays traded Chase De Jong and Tim LoCastro.
So let's make that 15 prospects - Rasmussen is the only one among that group who wouldn't be considered one.
No one wants to trade away the next Noah Syndergaard, but the Blue Jays have strengthened themselves considerably in these deals, giving up only a single player from the major league roster.
As someone who follows prospects extensively, watching them on Milb.tv, and talking with someone about them or even to some of them (or their parents) on Twitter (Matt Boyd will always be one of my favourites), it's easy to create a halo effect with these kids, and think that they have few, if any, faults. The truth is, when prospects are traded, it's generally for one or more of four reasons:
1. The organization sees a window of opportunity, and feels that there is enough depth in the system
to eventually replenish what was lost.
2. The organization felt that said prospect had reached his ceiling, and perhaps did not fit into their
long range plans.
3. The prospect's future is so far off that the gamble of dealing them for help now is worth the risk.
4. The trading partner insisted said prospect be included in the deal.
We'll never know for certain, of course, but media reports suggest that the inclusion of Barreto and Hoffman were at the other club's insistence. I can't say for certain where the other prospects fit, but I think it's safe to say that the Blue Jays may not have been as reluctant to part with them.
What were some of the possible blemishes?
With Barreto, who is currently on the 7-Day DL, it continues to be his play at short. After a very slow start, his bat has rallied, and he's hitting .298/.329/.492 for Oakland's Advanced A club, and he was named Baseball America's 23rd Top Prospect in their mid-season rankings, but his lack of quickness, footwork, and arm strength will likely mean a position switch soon. Graveman has pitched very well of late for Oakland after a rough start, but his flyball rate and 4.76 FIP may not have played in the Rogers Centre as well as it has in cavernous O.Co Coliseum.
Nolin's career has been marked by an inability to stay healthy, and while he's pitched well for Oakland's AAA affiliate, he's on the DL, and has thrown only 33 innings for them this season.
Hoffman drew raves earlier this season, but has not missed bats at the rate the Blue Jays likely had hope for. He is only 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and his command has been slow to return. He has generated a great deal of ground ball outs, which will be essential for a Coors Field starter.
Castro went from Short Season ball to Blue Jays closer (albeit only briefly) in the space of 9 months, and while he's worked his way back to a relief role in AAA, his lack of secondary pitches may keep him there for the time being, and he still has a way to go in commanding both sides of the plate. If he can keep the ball down in the zone better, he could be a dominant MLB reliever.
Tinoco is young, and was right around the Midwestern League averages in strikeout rate. Blue Jays minor league catcher Danny Jansen told me last year that Tinoco's two-seam fastball has incredible sink when it's on. He has a live arm, but he's still a long distance from the major leagues.
Norris started the season with the Blue Jays, but found himself back in Buffalo after a month. Norris seems to cruise along for most of his starts, and then loses the strike zone completely for an inning. Whispers about his delivery concerns and possible elbow issues have grown louder as the season has progressed. He has brilliant last year, and his 2014 season was one of the best a Blue Jays minor league pitcher has ever had. He immediately takes over Price's spot in the rotation - welcome back to the big leagues, kid.
Boyd has been one of the best pitchers in all of minor league baseball this year. His first big league start was a huge success, and then he was rocked by the Red Sox in his second start, leaving the game in the first without having recorded an out. Like most successful athletes, Boyd quickly put that behind him, and has pitched effectively in Buffalo ever since. There was no room for him in Toronto's rotation, however.
Labourt is yet another electric arm, but has had command issues over the past two seasons. Again, like Tinoco, it's very hard to project someone who is still so far away from the bigs.
Wells, a southpaw 3rd round California HS pick last year, had a decent pro debut, but has struggled a bit in Bluefield this year. Brentz did not pitch until his senior year of High School, and in his third year of pro ball is still a bit of a project - we've been waiting for the results to match his potential.
Tirado was called a "beast in the making" by Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus two seasons ago; he struggled in his first shot at full season ball with Lansing last year, and finished the season in Vancouver's bullpen. Pitching again in relief for Dunedin this year, he has fared much better, and may be an arm that will rise to the majors quickly. Cordero can light up the radar gun, but without a lot of movement, and sometimes not a great idea as to where his fastball is going.
De Jong repeated Lansing this year, with much better results, and had just been promoted to Dunedin at the time of his trade. He, along with Boyd, former Jays prospect Joe Musgrove, and current Jay farmhand Dalton Pompeyall made Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet this week, making it a pretty good week for the Toronto scouting department. Lo Castro is a modern-day Ron Hunt, willing to do anything to get on base, including being hit by a pitch. Lo Castro's makeup is off the charts.
After having written glowingly about that group for some time, I may have seemed overly negative about them in the above paragraphs, but sometimes you have to take a step back and look at prospects from a more critical standpoint. And while you have to give something in order to get something, I've always felt that for many prospects, there must have been something in their physical or mental makeup that made them expendable from the club's perspective. It's easy to overvalue your prospects, and sometimes you need to look at their weaknesses as well as their strengths. The Blue Jays gave up a ton of potential to improve their major league roster, but this was a calculated risk. This was not a toss at a dart board - despite some criticism on social media about their analytics department, the Blue Jays, who make such deals by a consensus of front office staff, have crunched the numbers, and could likely recite each prospect's scouting reports in their sleep. And at the end of the day, prospects are just that - players who have a chance. Outside of Norris, Graveman, and perhaps Boyd, they gave up no one who could stick on a major league roster tomorrow.
And having said all that, let's remember one thing. The Blue Jays acquired David Cone, then one of the top pitchers in baseball and a free agent-to-be at the trade deadline in 1992 for prospects Ryan Thompson and Jeff Kent. Thompson turned into not much more than a marginal MLB player, while Kent amassed over 2400 hits, hit more Home Runs than any MLB 2nd baseman, drove in 90 runs every year from 1997 to 2005, and is a borderline Hall of Famer. Cone led the Blue Jays to their first ever World Series that year, and even though he left the team after the 92 season, is there anyone who has ever said, "gee, I wish we had kept Kent?" In 1993, the Blue Jays made another deadline deal, picking up Rickey Henderson for prospects Steve Karsay (a 1990 1st rounder) and Jose Herrera. Karsay had a couple of decent seasons in a 9-team, 11 year career as a reliever, and Herrera played in parts of two big league seasons. Both trades go to show that with prospects, in most cases, you never know how they will turn out, and even if they do go on to have successful MLB careers, a ring for the player obtained for them is more than enough to counter-balance that. Farm systems serve several functions for MLB teams; the main one, of course, is to supply a steady stream of new talent to the parent club. It also serves as a holding tank for injury replacement players. And even going back to the time of Branch Rickey, who pioneered the modern-day farm system, it serves as means of strengthening the major league club.
It's not all doom and gloom for the Blue Jays minor league system, either. Yes, they gave up some depth, but through this trading frenzy, they still managed to hang onto some top prospects. Anthony Alford and Rowdy Tellez remain Blue Jays, and we all should be happy about that, because while both are still a couple of seasons away, both project as impact players one day. They also kept RHP Sean Reid-Foley, who surely was a coveted target, and even though he's had some control issues this year, is pitching at High A at the age of 19 in only his second pro season. And I haven't even written about Vladimir Guerrero, Jr yet. Flags do indeed fly forever, but laying waste to a farm system is truly a short-sighted move, and the Blue Jays certainly factored in the remaining depth of talent when they made these deals.
Who are some other names who move up several slots in the Top Prospect pecking order? Here are notes about a few: Conner Greene - RHP, 7th rounder in 2013, just keeps getting better and better; started with Lansing, promoted to Dunedin, hasn't given up a run in his last two starts. Jon Harris - this year's 1st rounder has not had the success with Vancouver that we thought he might have, but still profiles as a mid-rotation starter, and should fare better next year. Angel Perdomo - the Jays have taking things slowly with the 6'6" Dominican lefty, but he's missed a lot of bats through his brief minor league career. Juliandry Higuera - in his first stateside season, the 20 yr old Venezuelan has been Bluefield's best pitcher. Lupe Chavez - 17 yr old Mexican RHP was a top-ranked IFA last year; pitching in the Dominican Summer League, has gotten better with every start. Matt Smoral - the 6'8" LHP was a comp pick in 2012, and has teased us with brief glimpses of dominance in a career slowed by injuries. I had fully expected him to start with Lansing, but back issues have limited him to 8 innings between Dunedin and Bluefield. If he ever puts it all together... Jose Espada - the 5th rounder from this year's draft has impressed in the GCL. Reggie Pruitt - I was pretty sure the 24th round Georgia HS would go the college route; he signed for $500K and has had a solid debut in the GCL Rodrigo Orozco - some of my fellow prospect bloggers were stumped by his name; the 20 year old Panamanian played the last two season in the DSL, and according to Brian Woodfield, who covers the Appy League for the Bluefield Daily Telegraph:
Orozco has been their best player in my opinion. Good leadoff batter, gets on base. High average and speed. Good range
There are other names, to be sure, and I have my work cut out for me when I compile my Top 10 and Next 10 lists after the fall. Even putting together my daily list of Blue Jays starters was a bit of a tough task today:
#BlueJays MiLB starters: Buffalo - ? New Hampshire - Lee Dunedin - ? Lansing - Robson Vancouver - Smith? Bluefield - ? Wow.
What the acquisition of the five players who cost that bundle does for the above remaining prospects is that it has bought them some time. It's also removed some names above them that could help accelerate their development. I've only been doing this prospect thing for a few years, but I can't recall a deadline day quite like this past one. My Twitter timeline was blowing up, and I had to silence my phone in order to satisfy my wife, who is otherwise quite patient with my obsession. To summarize - the Blue Jays did give up quite a bit of depth in their minor league system in order to significantly upgrade their roster. This represents a huge risk, but the system is still in reasonably good shape in terms of prospects (if not in terms of MLB-ready ones). And at the end of the day, as Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler said:
@Clutchlings77 With great respect to the sea of baseball talents, as someone once said, "prospect" means they haven't done anything yet.
Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopolous was a guest on Prime Time Sports on Toronto's The Fan 590 on Monday for a lengthy chat about the genesis of the Josh Donaldson deal. Hosts Bob McCown and Michael Grange did a good job of getting out of AA's way, feeding him questions about the deal that he could respond to in great detail. The interview lent fascinating insight into how MLB trades get made, and how organizations view their players and prospects. Say what you will about Anthopolous - depending on the question, you may not always get as straight an answer as you would like, but you will get an honest one.
According to Anthopolous, the deal had its origins in October, when he made a general inquiry with Oakland GM Billy Beane about Donaldson. Beane's initial answer, not surprisingly, was "no." A successful GM, though, obviously learns to take 'no' not as a dead end, but more like, "Come up with a package that will blow me away." And it wasn't until Brett Lawrie was included in the deal did it happen - we had thought that he would have been part of it all along, but the Blue Jays had toyed with the idea of moving Lawrie across to 2nd base if they had been able to acquire Donaldson with their intial offer.
Anthopolous admits that the organization was reluctant to part with all three prospects. The Blue Jays had one of their healthiest starting rotations in recent memory last year, but still needed 9 starters over the course of the season. Trading Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin takes away from the club's depth of starters, with really only Daniel Norris, the re-acquired Liam Hendriks, and Todd Redmond as back up starters - we would add Scott Copeland to that list, he contniues to pitch like he did over the final half of last year. If Norris and/or Sanchez make the starting rotation next spring, that alleviates the situation somewhat. Beyond that, the Blue Jays have Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna, who likely will pitch at AA next year, and a trio of pitchers in Jairo Labourt, Matt Smoral, and Ryan Borucki, who will likely take the mound for Lansing when April rolls around. So, there may be some finger crossing in the Blue Jays front office this year. Dealing Graveman and Nolin all but assures that the starting rotation that finished last year will likely start next year, but if the injury bug bites hard, the club is in trouble.
According to Anthopolous, the club felt that Graveman could compete for a starting job if they had kept him, and he expects him to land a spot in the back end of the Athletics rotation, while he suggested Nolin might find himself in Oakland's bullpen.
It was a bit of a surprise that AA mentioned that if Franklin Barrreto was still with the organization, he would have started the year at Dunedin (with an invite to the big club's spring training camp), which probably indicates that they were still willing to let him play himself out of shortstop. If the Athletics follow suit, Barreto will start in the California League next year. We fully expect him to advance quickly once he starts playing every day in full season ball.
Anthopolous also raised our eyebrows a bit when he told McCown and Grange that we could see Castro in the Blue Jays bullpen next summer. His lack of secondary pitches has always been a bit of a concern, but his 100 mph fastball could see him reprising Aaron Sanchez's role in the club's 2014 bullpen.
We can't wait.
We watched as our Twitter timeline blew up late Friday night with news of the Josh Donaldson trade, and we have to admit to a touch of sadness, mixed in with the elation of getting a bonafide first division player.
When you follow the progress of players in the Blue Jays system as closely as we do, it's hard not to get at least a little emotionally invested in them. When one (or more) gets dealt, it's hard not to be a little disappointed, no matter the return. At the same time, baseball is a business, and prospects can often be used as currency that can be turned into assets that can improve the business.
We'll be flat out honest - we were really looking forward to watching Franklin Barreto in a Blue Jays uniform one day. We had already planned a couple of road trips to Lansing to watch him play - early in the season, in case of a mid-season promotion to Dunedin. He was the best prospect in the organization not named Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez, or Dalton Pompey. He will crack most Top 100 lists this year, and we fully expect him to be a Top 10 prospect by 2016.
It's also interesting to wonder why an organization decides to trade a prospect. Is it as simple as to get quality, you have to give it up in return? Or is it a flaw that the organization's scouts had spotted? In the case of Kendall Graveman, it's likely that while the club liked his rapid progress and strike-throwing ability this year, maybe they felt that his fastball velocity wasn't going to be enough to get AL East hitters out. And Sean Nolin, who has had trouble staying healthy the last two seasons, might have the type of high maintenance body that might keep him from being the innings eater that they originally thought they had. As for Barreto, it's hard to imagine there being any flaws in his game other than chasing the odd breaking pitch out of the zone, but maybe the club realized after last season that he wasn't going to stay at shortstop, and with Dalton Pompey and Anthony Alford in the outfield picture, maybe things were going to be a bit crowded with him. We read the stats, watch the games on milb.tv, and even attend them in person, but there's so much about prospects we don't know. We don't know about their characters, their personalities, or the mental side of them. Are they mature? Do they have some issues with self-regulation and impulse control that might inhibit them from reaching their ceilings ? Have they already reached their ceilings ? Only the organization knows for sure.
This much we do know - all three have upside, with Barreto leading the pack. At 18, he was the MVP of the Northwest League, a loop populated by college grads 3 and 4 years older. He has been a high profile player since he was 12, and everything in his pro experience so far suggests that he will be an impact bat. He has above average speed, and top notch athleticism. The only downside in his game, of course, is his glove, and it may just be a case of shortstop not being a good fit for his skills. Whatever the case, the bat will play, and Athletics' fans should take comfort in that. This kid will hit, and while he still is relatively far away, his development will likely accelerate once he reaches full season ball next year, and he may advance quickly.
Graveman is another premium athlete, who fields his position well, repeats his delivery, and is a groundout machine. He showed durability this year, and should log a lot of innings in the future. He will have some stiff competition for a starting job with Oakland next spring, but he has a shot at a back of the rotation spot. Graveman will log a lot of innings, and break a few bats along the way if he continues to develop as he has this year.
Nolin was a bit of a victim of a numbers game, and his inability to stay healthy over the past two seasons. He matched Marcus Stroman K for K in AA two years ago, and while command of all four of his pitches is more of a selling point with him than his velocity, he can dial it up to 95 on occasion. Nolin, too, profiles as a back end of the rotation starter. Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Daniel Norris surpassed him on the organization's depth chart this year, which likely made him expendable.
We admit to beaming with more than a little pride when Sanchez made his bullpen debut in scintillating fashion this summer. We had watched for more than a year as the criticisms piled up on the tall righthander: lacked command on his fastball, landed in too upright a position with his delivery, etc. While he was lights out in relief this year, he still is an unproven commodity as a starter, which reminds us of a baseball truism: prospects are just that. They're not battle-tested, time-proven major leaguers. They may be one day, but when they're in the minors (especially the low minors), they're still far away. There was much gnashing of teeth when the Blue Jays traded Justin Nicolino to the Marlins, and Noah Syndergaard to the Mets two years ago, but the former had one of the lowest K/IP in the minors this season, and the latter was hit pretty hard in the rarefied air of the Pacific Coast League and Las Vegas' Cashman Stadium launching pad. The Blue Jays scouting staff obviously saw more in Sanchez. And say what you will about R.A. Dickey, Toronto has had 440 innings from the knuckleballer since acquiring him. The Mets have had 0 from Syndergaard.
Getting Josh Donaldson in return, of course, is a plus. The Blue Jays are getting a power hitting third baseman in his prime, whom the team will have under control for the next three seasons. Our disappointment is nothing compared to A's fans - this was how management tried to distract them on Friday:
"Hey, we may not have Josh Donaldson, but look - Billy Butler!"
The Blue Jays have one of the largest pro and amateur scouting staffs in baseball, and a wealth of senior administrative experience. If they deemed Barreto surplus, it may have been because of a flaw not yet apparent in his game, or because they felt there was an adequate depth of projectable players in the system to replace him (hello, Richard Urena). Or maybe they just felt that this was the price that had to be paid to land a premium player. Even though GM Alex Anthopolous said Brett Lawrie was the key to the deal being consummated, maybe the A's don't even entertain the notion of a trade to begin with unless Barreto was included.
No matter what, if we want to watch him play in Lansing, it may have to wait until August, when Oakland's Midwest League affiliate, the Beloit Snappers, are in town to play the Lugnuts. We're betting he will already be in the High A California League by then.
11. Devon Travis 2B
Travis is the latecomer to this list, and while what we've read about him has mostly been positive, we don't know enough about him yet to bump him further up the list.
Travis reminds us a bit of Kevin Pillar. Not highly rated in his draft year and the owner of average to slightly above average tools, all Travis has done in three minor league seasons is hit, posting a .323/.388/.487 line. Baseball America is firmly in the Travis camp, noting that he has hit at every level. Here's more from their latest report on him:
He has superb hand-eye coordination, good balance at the plate and strong bat control, which allows him to make consistent contact and use the whole field. He’s a smart player who’s been able to make adjustments as he’s moved up the ladder Keith Law, on the other hand, is less than sold: Had a great year but....... he's old for where he played, and he's an undersized guy without tools. Not a prospect for me, nor for any of the scouts I talked to who'd seen him.
The true evaluation of Travis probably lies somewhere in between. The Tigers, faced with a thin market for outfielders, felt that Anthony Gose could develop into at least a league average player, and act as insurance if Steven Moya proves to be not quite ready for MLB action. They also felt that they could live with several more years of Ian Kinsler, even with his production due to start to decline, at second base, ahead of Travis.
You're not getting an all star with Travis. You're not getting a gold glover or much of a base stealing threat, either. What you are getting is a guy who consistently barrels up the ball, who may hit 10 to 15 home runs a year, and a guy who has made the necessary adjustments at every level he has played at. And with second being a bit of a black hole in the Jays lineup for several years, the club will take that.
ETA: late 2015/early 2016 Projection: everyday 2nd baseman, bottom third of the order bate Worst Case Scenario: utility infielder 12. Sean Nolin LHP
Nolin has been the forgotten man in the Blue Jays plans, but he showed this fall in Arizona that when he's healthy, he can very much be in the picture.
Leg injuries have limited Nolin to 20 starts in each of the last two years. In 2013, he matched Marcus Stroman strikeout for strikeout with New Hampshire. At 6"4"/230, Nolin is projected as a back of the rotation innings eater.
Nolin commands all four of his pitches well. His fastball grades as average, but he can touch 95 on occasion. His size allows him to create a downhill plane on his pitches, and his delivery can make it tough for hitters to pick up the ball. Nolin gave up a fair number of fly balls earlier in his minor league career, but he induced much more groundball contact this year.
The biggest challenge Nolin has faced the past two years is staying healthy. Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, and possibly even Kendall Graveman have passed him. The lefthander went to Arizona this fall to make up for lost innings, and after a couple of rough outings early in the schedule, he was back to his old form over the last half.
It's hard to say where Nolin fits in the Blue Jays plans. Called up in 2013 for an emergency start, he caught too much of the strike zone and was pummeled by the Orioles. Even though he missed almost a month this year, he pitched well down the stretch for Buffalo, and was called up when MLB rosters expanded at the end of August, but pitched all of one inning in September.
With the the starting rotation beginning to become a bit crowded, Nolin's greatest value to the club may be as trade bait. Nolin's Milb Page ETA: 2015 Projection: Back of the rotation starter Worst Case Scenario: Front of the bullpen guy
13. Max Pentecost C
The Blue Jays nabbed Pentecost with their second first round pick in June, 11th overall.
All indications were that he was a hit-first, defence-second receiver, but was at least adequate behind the plate. Jason Kendall comps were made.
After he signed, Pentecost spent the obligatory week in the Gulf Coast League, then was off to Vancouver, for what was presumed to be the real start of a brief apprenticeship in the minors, which would see him in the majors leagues as early as next summer.
Pentecost arrived in the Pacific Northwest in rough shape however, likely from the rigors of an extended collegiate season on a frame that scouts felt could use some bulking up to begin with. Pentecost was behind the plate for only 6 games for the C's, and was limited to 87 Plate Appearances before being shut down and sent back to Florida for rest and rehab in August. Reports we had about his catching skills in that small sample size were less than glowing, but we'll give Pentecost a pass for now.
Pentecost turned out to have a shoulder injury which didn't respond to treatment, and underwent what we presume is surgery to repair a torn labrum on October 8th. Recovery from the procedure, of course, depends on the extent of the damage, but it's typically 9 months to a year for a full recovery. Which means that 2015 isn't necessarily a write off for him, but it does move the projection back, and the signing of Russell Martin takes away the urgency.
Pentecost has above-average speed for a catcher, and has a line drive swing that isn't projected to produce great power, but should generate plenty of singles and doubles. There is every indication that he is a premium athlete - he was the MVP of the summer collegiate Cape Cod League in 2013, and won the Johnny Bench Award as the nation's top college catcher in 2014. There is every indication that he will be a solid contributor to the lineup. The injury issue which has stalled his timetable is the only thing keeping him out of the Top 10.
Pentecost's Milb Page ETA: Late 2016 Projection: hit first, defence second catcher Worst Case Scenario: platoon catcher 14. Mitch Nay 3B
Nay may have been surpassed by Pompey, Barreto, and maybe Alford as the best position player prospect in the system, but he still figures highly in the Blue Jays future plans.
Nay missed a season of development in 2012 due to a broken foot, but had a breakout year in short season play in 2013, raking at Bluefield before being promoted to Vancouver in time for the NWL playoffs, in which he was named the MVP. This season at Lansing, the power wasn't in present in as much quantity as had been hoped, but his 34 doubles were tied for third in the league. The Midwest League is not a home run hitters paradise, particularly the Lugnuts' home Cooley Law School Stadium. Power is often the last took in a hitter's kit to develop, so the thinking that some of those doubles will turn into homers in more favourable environments.
Nay has an advanced approach at the plate, and makes consistently hard, up the middle contact. He still projects as a middle of the order of the bat. The concern about Nay has always been about his range, which can take away from his plus arm. With Brett Lawrie ensconced at third for the foreseeable future, a move across the diamond may be in store for Nay.
Other top prospects list have ranked Nay higher than we have, and while we're still high on him, his presence on this secondary tier is more of a reflection on the rate of his development relative to other players in the system.
ETA: Late 2017 Projection: Middle of the order, starting 3rd Baseman Worst Case Scenario: IB/DH platoon player 15. Matt Smoral LHP Smoral was yet another gem the Blue Jays drafted who other scouts shied away from because of a broken foot in his senior year of high school and a college commitment. Toronto took him as a comp pick in 2012 and gave him a $2 million bonus, and were prepared to wait on the 6'8" lefthander.
Smoral didn't make his pro debut until the GCL started in June of 2013, and missed a fair number of bats. And when he wasn't missing bats, he was missing the strike zone.
The Blue Jays moved him up the ladder to the Appalachian League in 2014, Smoral's Appy debut was a sizzling one, striking out 8 and walking 3 in 3 innings. Named the league's 7th prospect by BA, Smoral was promoted to Vancouver in August, and wasn't overmatched against older hitters, although a meltdown in the NWL finals by Smoral cost the C's a chance at a four-peat.
Smoral touches 96 with his fastball, with late life. His slider was one of the best in short season ball, and projects as a plus pitch. While he made strides with his delivery this season, Smoral still must improve on his command (5.7K/9 this year).
Smoral projects as a front of the rotation starter if he can harness his command. Tall lefthanders who missed a year of development tend to take longer to reach their ceiling, so the Blue Jays may not be as aggressive with their promotion of him as they were with other pitchers this year.
ETA: 2017 Projection: #2/#3 starter Worst Case Scenario: Brett Cecil or Aaron Loup's replacement 16. Dwight Smith If Mitch Nay flew under the radar this year in the shadow of more high profile position players in the system, the son of the former Major Leaguer by the same name was barely a blip on the screen.
Playing in the Florida State League in front of dozens of spectators every night, all Smith did was post an OPS of .816 with virtually no protection in the lineup, in cavernous FSL stadiums, and in the flyball-killing Florida heat.
A sandwich pick in 2011, Smith has made steady, if unspectacular progress. Smith lacks the power of a corner outfielder, and the Blue Jays may have plans to try to turn him into a multi-position utility player, as evidenced by the brief trial he had at second base in the Arizona Fall League. It will be interesting to see if the club has him play several positions at New Hampshire next year.
We find that when we talk about prospects who are in this tier, we tend to talk about what they can't do. What Smith can do is get on base consistently, and use his line drive stroke to find the gaps. He has average speed, which all but rules out centrefield, except in an emergency.
It doesn't hurt that Smith hits from the left side, too.
ETA: Late 2016/early 2017 Projection: Platoon Corner OF Worst Case Scenario: Utility Player
17. Rowdy Tellez
The legend of Rowdy Tellez is growing.
A hitter of prodigious BP and Home Run Derby blasts in various Showcase events as a High Schooler, MLB teams were scared off by his USC commitment prior to last year's draft, but the Blue Jays used savings gained elsewhere in the draft to convince him to sign after taking him in the 28th round.
Tellez struggled in the first weeks of his pro debut season in the GCL last year, but found his groove in the closing week, when he hit everything hard. Sent to Bluefield this season, Tellez got off to another slow start, including an 0-33 stretch, but caught fire and hit .293/.358/.424. The club skipped Tellez over Vancouver to Lansing, where he acquitted himself well in two weeks of play.
There is no disguising Tellez's role. He is a bat first player, period. Yet his is not necessarily a hit or miss approach. Tellez has shown patience at the plate, walking almost as much as he struck out this year. He has above average bat speed, and can drive balls to the opposite field.
At 6"5"/230, Tellez is a below average runner who will have to pay attention to his conditioning, and work hard to be even an average first baseman. He should return to Lansing this year, and will likely split time at first and DH with the presence of Ryan McBroom, who had a great debut season at Vancouver. We are excited about his future, but he is still far away, and if he doesn't hit, he won't provide any value to the club.
ETA: 2017/18 Projection: Middle of the Order 1B/DH Worst Case Scenario: AAAA Player 18. Jairo Labourt
There's a temptation to label Labourt as a disappointment this year.
The tall Dominican lefty started the year with Lansing, where he was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, and he struggled mightily, walking 20 batters in 14 innings. To be fair, he was not the only prospect on the team who had difficulty with the challenge the organization presented him with.
Sent back to extended spring training, Labourt rediscovered his command, and was sent off to Vancouver when short season play started, where he became the C's ace, and was named the NWL's third best prospect by BA.
Labourt challenges hitters with his mid 90s fastball, and was very successful against right handed hitters, who hit .171/.286/.202. Labourt demonstrated much better command with Vancouver, striking out 82 and walking 37 in 71 innings. He did hit 8 batters, showing a willingness to pitch inside.
If not for his Lansing experience, we would no doubt be looking at Labourt's season through a different lens. His is a live arm that should perform well in another stint at Lansing. The organization has to make a 40 man roster decision on Labourt after next season, so his timeline may be moved up.
ETA: 2017 Projection: Middle of the rotation starter Worst Case Scenario: Front of the bullpen guy 19. Sean Reid-Foley
When a prospect drops in the draft due to concerns either about signability or durability, you can bet that the Blue Jays will be in the running to scoop him up. They covet impact players.
Such was the case with righthander Reid-Foley, who fell to the Blue Jays in the second round last June. Some teams were scared off by his delivery, while others felt that he was committed to Florida State. The Blue Jays felt that they scored another first rounder.
Reid-Foley caught a heavy dose of helium last spring with added velocity on his fastball. At 6'3"/215, and with a fastball that touched 97, he was a man among boys in Florida high school competition. He pounds the strike zone, and shows an advanced feel for pitching.
There are concerns about his delivery. He throws across his body, and the inverted W in his delivery is a tell-tale sign of future elbow/shoulder issues to some. You can't really see the W here, but what you can see is a compact delivery, a nasty slider, and hit and miss stuff:
Worst Case Scenario: Hard to determine - he's very far away
20. Ryan Borucki This was the hardest of all our prospect picks to make. We had to choose from a variety of players at different stages of development. There were some we considered who had disappointing seasons but still have high ceilings (DJ Davis), some who surprised, but are too far away (Lane Thomas), and some who we're still high on, but have to wonder about their earlier projections (Dawel Lugo/Alberto Tirado).
Ultimately, we've decided to go with Borucki. In his high school senior year, he played mostly first base, due to an elbow injury that he chose to rehab. The Blue Jays took a flyer on the tall, athletic Illinoisan, and took him in the 15th round in 2012.
The injury didn't respond to treatment, and Borucki opted for Tommy John surgery in March the following season, which cost him all of 2013. Borucki teamed up with Smoral in the Bluefield rotation this year, and followed him to Vancouver late in the season. He had the lowest walk/9 ratio (1.6), and the best K-BB ratio (5.0) of any lefthander in the Appy League. He pitched even better in the Northwest League. On the year, Borucki gave up just 39 hits in 57 IP this year, walking only 9, while striking out 52.
Borucki sat between 92-94 early in the season, but lost a touch of velocity as the season wore on, which isn't a surprise. He pitches off his fastball, and the best of his secondary pitches at this point is his change, which shows plus potential. His curveball will need an upgrade if he is to repeat his success at higher levels.
At 6'4", Borucki still has plenty of room for projection.
Play begins today in the Arizona Fall League, a "finishing school" of sorts where top prospects can show their organizations how they stack up against top competition.
The Blue Jays have sent 8 players to play in the league, which takes place at MLB spring training sites in the Phoenix area. Tickets, by the way, are a bargain - for $115, you can purchase a family pass, which includes admission for 6 to regular season games. Play wraps up in mid-November.
4 pitchers were sent to Arizona by the Jays to play for the Mesa Solar Sox. Starter Roberto Osuna, who came back from Tommy John surgery in August, and showed his former velocity, but struggled with his command, leads the way. With his advanced feel for pitching, this could be a huge opportunity for the righthander - the additional innings may be what he needs to refine his control, and could pay huge dividends for him next season.
Joining Osuna in the Sox rotation will be lefthander Sean Noin, the forgotten man of the Blue Jays top 10 prospects. Nolin matched Marcus Stroman strikeout for strikeout in 2013 at New Hampshire, but injuries limited him to 20 starts this year. Nolin is in the southwest to make up for those missed innings.
Blake McFarland and Arik Sikula will pitch out of Mesa's bullpen. Both are power arms who must be placed on the 40 man roster this fall, or risk being lost in the Rule 5 draft. In reality, there's little chance that will happen, but at 25, both players are facing closing windows of MLB opportunity. Sikula was lights out in Dunedin's bullpen this year, with 34 saves, and 60 Ks in 43 innings. McFarland pitched at both A+ and AA this year, and finished strong at New Hampshire, with 37 Ks in 35 innings. As mid-minors bullpen guys, they don't have a lot of value, but with bullpen arms being more and more of a disposable nature at the big league level, it wouldn't be a shock to see one of them reach the majors.
On the position side, the Toronto contingent will be led by OF Dalton Pompey, who started the year in Dunedin, and ended it in spectacular fashion in Toronto, with stops in New Hampshire and Buffalo along the way. The GTA native blossomed in his fifth year of pro ball, and is a testament to both the acumen and patience of the Blue Jays player development department. Pompey doesn't have a great deal to prove, but it will still be beneficial for him to face some high level pitching. He will be leading off for Mesa today in their season opener.
Joining Pompey are Catcher Sean Ochinko, and outfielder Dwight Smith, Jr. Smith played in the shadow of his more illustrious teammates Pompey and Daniel Norris at Dunedin, and he put up respectable numbers in a pitcher's league without much support behind him in the lineup. 2B Jon Berti, who had a decent year at New Hampshire, rounds out the Blue Jay contingent.
One next-to-last edition of the Monday Notebook is here for you, Blue Jays Prospect Fans..
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As the minor league season entered its final weekend, three Blue Jays affiliates were in contention for a playoff spot.
The Vancouver Canadians clinched the second half Northern Division title in the Northwest League by virtue of a victory over Spokane, the first half champs.
Vancouver played some inconsistent ball over the second half, but made what is becoming for them a patented run in the last week of the season, and clinched a playoff birth against Spokane on Sunday. They open their first round series against - you guessed it - Spokane today.
Buffalo was well back of a playoff spot over a month ago. Bolstered by the additions of Dalton Pompey, Daniel Norris, and Kendall Graveman from AA, and the return of Cole Gillespie and acquisition of Matt Hague, the Bisons went 24-9 in one stretch, and even briefly overtook Pawtucket for the final playoff spot. The Bisons entered the final weekend of play needing to sweep playoff-bound Syracuse for the wild card spot, but fell short on Sunday. Despite a perfect game through 5 and a no-hitter through six by the newly promoted Paolo Espino, the Bisons scored runs in the 7th, 8th, and 9th to tie the contest, only to lose on a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th.
Lansing entered the weekend with a shot at a wild card spot, but failed to make the Midwest League playoffs.
Dunedin already clinched a spot in the post-season by winning their first half Florida State League division title. Even though they stumbled a bit down the stretch, the D-Jays are anchored by a rotation of Matt Boyd, Taylor Cole, and Roberto Osuna/Miguel Castro, and have a decent shot at a title.
Late last night, our Twitter feed was exploding with news of Blue Jays promotions. Pompey, Graveman, and Norris were promoted, according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, along with Sean Nolin, George Kottaras, Ryan Goins, Dan Johnson, Anthony Gose, and a rehabbing Brendan Morrow. There has been no confirmation yet from the Blue Jays, and we admit that we're surprised that AJ Jimenez was not part of that group. Stay tuned....
We've been meaning to look into this for a while, but we give a tip of the hat to fellow Blue Jays prospect follower Minor Leaguer for pointing out the the Blue Jays Player Development Contracts with two of their minor league affiliates expire at the end of this season.
The vast majority of minor league teams are owned by private or community interests. Toronto owns only one of its minor league clubs outright, its Dunedin club in the Advanced A Florida State League. PDCs usually come up for renewal every other September in even years.
The Blue Jays PDCs with the Low A Lansing Lugnuts and the Rookie Level Bluefield Blue Jays come up for renewal next month. A number of minor league teams have already renewed or switched affiliations, but the Blue Jays have yet to give any indication about their plans. The Jays have been affiliated with Bluefield since 2010, and Lansing since 2005.
In case you're wondering, the Blue Jays have a PDC with Buffalo through 2016. Even though there was a glimmer of hope they might switch affiliates if Ottawa's city council had voted if favour of stadium improvements in order to house an Eastern League team, the Jays re-upped with New Hampshire until 2016 as well. The Jays also have a PDC with Vancouver, their short season affiliate, until 2016. All three have solid local ownership, and draw well. The 90 minute drive from Buffalo to Toronto is a huge benefit. The partnership with Vancouver has been wildly successful, and has helped to grow the Blue Jays brand in B.C.
Would the Jays consider moving one or both of their expiring affiliations? We can't see it in the case of Lansing. The Lugnuts play in a great stadium, draw well despite fielding losing teams the past several seasons, and is only a 4 1/2 - 5 hour drive away from Toronto, making it the closest of the 8 other teams in the Midwest League which have PDCs coming up for renewal. One drawback of Lansing's northern location is that prospects who were raised in temperate climates sometimes struggle in the cold temperatures of the season's opening weeks.
As for Bluefield, they don't draw as well, but they have been relatively successful in the Blue Jays short time there, after being an Orioles affiliate for decades.
Other factors, such as quality of facilities, proximity to airports and interstates for roving instructors and front office personnel, likely come into play when deciding whether or not to extend a PDC, as does the affiliates' level of satisfaction with the major league club. Only one other Appy League team has a PDC expiring this year, and only three Pioneer League (the other short season rookie level league) have ones due for renewal.
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One last note: we had said in our last post that we thought that if Osuna pitched anywhere this off-season, it would be in Mexico. We were working off some information we were given that he was a protected player, but obviously that information was false, as the righthander tweeted himself that he was going to the Arizona Fall League. And we're thrilled, both to see what he can do against some tough competition, and so that we can follow his progress more closely than we likely could if we was pitching in his homeland.
