Five Who Just Missed

Ryan McBroom
Kyle Castle Milb.com Photo

In what I hope will become an annual event, I take a look at 5 Blue Jays prospects who just missed my Top 20 rankings.

   Before we begin, there's nothing like some revisionist history, so let's look at how last year's Five Who Just Missed fared....

1.  Alberto Tirado P
    Tirado began 2014 as one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, after having rapidly risen up the prospect rankings of many evaluators the year before.  The advanced competition and cold Midwestern spring did not agree with him, and he found himself back in Florida after a month, playing in Extended Spring Training. Sent to Vancouver when their season began, he found some success out of the bullpen, which is where he found himself with Dunedin when 2015 began.
   Tirado pitched reasonably well with the D-Jays, averaging a K per inning, but his command issues continued to plague him.  The Blue Jays obviously felt that despite the lightning in his arm, he would never conquer his control of the strike zone, and packaged him in a deal to the Phillies in return for Ben Revere.
   Tirado moved across the bay to pitch for Philadelphia's Clearwater affiliate, and continued to struggle, walking 18 in 16 innings.   There's a lot to like about Tirado - he hit 100 a couple of times on the radar gun this year, so there's huge swing and miss potential with his four-seam fastball.  The problem with a four-seamer, of course, is that it tends to have little movement, and is difficult to command, so it can leave a barrel in a hurry if it meanders too deep into the heart of the strike zone. Or it can miss the strike zone entirely, which seems to have been the case for Tirado this year.  Tirado turns 21 in December, so there is still time for him to develop into a power reliever, but those prospects will grow dimmer with each passing year.

2.  Jairo Labourt P
   Labourt followed a similar path to Tirado in 2014, the difference being that he found success as a starter in Vancouver, and was ranked the Northwest League's 3rd Top Prospect by Baseball America.
Skipped to Dunedin this year, the tall southpaw had mixed results in High A, but pitched a sizzling inning in the Futures Game.  Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs had some interesting observations about him after he was part of the package that was sent to the Tigers in return for David Price:

Labourt is big and has what scouts call a high-maintenance body. His command still wavers and he falls in love with his velo at times, along with other typical kid stuff, like not hiding the fact that he didn’t like the cold in Low-A Lansing and short-season Vancouver. Sometimes this sort of prospect never figures it out and becomes a 7th/8th-inning reliever and sometimes everything clicks, he loses the bad weight and turns into the terror that he shows in glimpses now. Labourt was 12th in a deep Jays organization entering the year as a 45 FV (Future Value - out of 80) and the new velo prompted me to bump him into the 50 FV group, but probably at the bottom of that tier (100-140 among all prospects) until he shows more progress. There’s #3 starter upside and it could all come together at any time, but there’s still some stuff on which the Tigers development will have to work with a talent that would’ve easily been a 1st rounder this past year when comparing him to his peers (college juniors).

   Labourt could be a groundball-inducing machine if he could pound the bottom part of the strike zone more effectively.  That's a huge "if", however.

3.  Dawel Lugo, SS
   There was a time when Lugo, labeled one of the best bats in the 2011 International Free Agent class, was considered a potential impact bat.  He has not produced at that kind of level since starting full season ball last year, and found himself back in Low A in August.
   Lugo has top-notch bat speed.  He puts a lot of balls in play, but because he doesn't tend to walk much, he often finds himself in pitcher's counts, and does not make the kind of contact that skill would normally lend itself to.  And while there were initial concerns about Lugo being able to stay at short, from all reports and my own observations, he's an adequate defender, with decent lateral movement, and he gets rid of the ball quickly.
   Just the same, the Blue Jays sent him, along with some cash, to the Diamondbacks for Cliff Pennington.

4. Danny Jansen C
Now that Anthony Alford has committed to baseball, and is well on his way to Top 100 Prospect (the Holy Land for Prospects) Status, I guess I have to write thousands of words about someone else.
   And for different reasons, that someone is the 2013 16th round pick from the non-baseball hotbed of Wisconsin.
   It's hard to explain why a player you have only seen brief glimpses of is a Just Missed kind of player, but Jansen truly is.  Already a top-notch receiver, with game-calling, pitcher-handling, and pitch-framing skills beyond his years, Jansen has done much of what the organization has asked him to do - except stay healthy.
   Jansen missed a good chunk of short season play with a knee injury this year, and missed almost three more months this year after breaking his hand as a result of being hit by a batter's follow-through.
   The organization thought enough of him that they had him catch Marcus Stroman during his rehab stint with Lansing.  Jansen did struggle at the plate in his first year of full-season ball, but hit reasonably well (.259/.355/.296) in August.  Only 20, it takes a long time to develop catchers, anyway.  Another Catcher who has had more than his share of health issues, Max Pentecost, may jump ahead of Jansen on the organizational depth chart this season, but all the pieces are there for Jansen to become a solid, defence-first backstop.

5.  Roemon Fields  OF
   Fields leaped onto my Top 20 list this year, through a combination of performance and timing.
With many of the names ahead of him dealt at the end of July, Fields did climb up partially through default, but in two minor league seasons, the undrafted free agent has progressed from short season ball to AAA.
  Fields may be the fastest player in the organization, and is the best base stealer outside of Dalton Pompey.  His 44 steals this year are hard to overlook.  As the saying goes, you can't steal first base, and Fields' struggles so far against advanced competition in the Arizona Fall League show that his hit tool is still a work in progress.  He does put the ball in play, but profiles as a Juan Pierre slap hitting type.  He still does not put enough balls in play to pressure defences and take advantage of his speed.


On to this year's Five.
And this year's candidates were not easy ones to come up with.
Let's face it -if you are a top prospect, it's either because you were a recent high draft pick, or because you've built a resume of several years of progression.  If you're a Just Missed guy, you maybe have one of those two traits, but you just have not shown enough evidence, either because of performance or sample size, to warrant being in the Top 20.  They've shown promise - just not enough of it. And after July 31st, there just aren't many guys in the system who fit that profile.   Truth be told, I did think of canning this feature, because it has been a struggle to come up with five names.  In what proved to be his parting press conference, Alex Anthopoulos praised the farm system, rightly pointing out the upper-level talent in it.  What his trading spree has done, however, is truly remove depth from the organization.  And you can't expect trading 14 prospects, no matter their potential, to have any other effect.  But having done it once before, the Blue Jays amateur scouting staff can likely rebuild it again.

1.  Ryan McBroom 1B/DH
    If his birth certificate said 1994 instead of 1992, the Virgina grade would be on many Top Prospects list. A likely Northwest League MVP in 2014 if not for teammate Frankie Barreto, McBroom was the Midwest League's Most Valuable Player this year, leading the league in OBP, Doubles, and was second in batting (he led the league for much of the summer), RBIs, Slugging, and extra base hits.
   If there is depth in the organization, it's at McBroom's position, which is why he spent the whole season at Lansing.  At 23, there were many who said that he was a bit old for that level.  Just the same, another season like this and we have to start taking a closer look.
    Originally drafted in the 36th round out of West Virgina by the Royals, McBroom felt that staying in school for his senior year and finishing his degree in Sports and Exercise Psychology would be a better option that turning pro.  It turned out to be a smart move, as the Blue Jays took him in the 15th round a year later, and while the $100 000 bonus for that slot (McBroom, as a senior with little bargaining leverage likely signed for less) wouldn't be enough to allow a prospect to, say, live in a van and surf during the off-season, it allowed McBroom to secure his future.
  At 6'3"/240, McBroom has worked very hard on his conditioning, and while he may not be the among the fleetest athletes in the system, he's one of its most diligent workers.  The organization tried him in the outfield this year, but he's pretty much limited to a 1B/DH role.  He has below average speed on the bases, and that doesn't promise to improve as he ages.  McBroom, with his academic background, pays close attention to his nutrition, and is a frequent visitor to the weight room.  His 12 Home Runs may seem like a low total for his profile, but the Midwest League is a pitcher-friendly loop, and his home park of Cooley Law Stadium can be a tough park to hit one out of unless you can straddle the foul poles.
   McBroom works the count well, and is patient.  What he does have to work on is going the other way with the ball - the right-handed hitter can get a little pull-happy.  He's an adequate fielder at 1st - he has been compared to Chris Colabello.   He is a long shot at this point, but if he puts up the same kind of numbers at Dunedin next year as he did in his first two pro seasons, it will be time to start thinking about him more seriously as a prospect.

2.  Shane Dawson, LHP
   As far as I can figure out, the Drayton Valley, AB resident has the most northerly baseball background of any player in all of Organized Baseball.    Born in Fort McMurray, he spent his teenage years in the farming community about an hour and a half southwest of Edmonton.
   As John Lott of the National Post wrote, Dawons was born without the infraspinatus muscle in his shoulder, which may account for the fact that he relies on location, command, and guile to get hitters out, as opposed to velocity.
   Dawson broke his leg before his senior year of high school, and after getting little attention from MLB scouts, enroled at Lethbridge Community College, where he played for the Prairie Baseball Academy.  This time, Dawson did get noticed, and the Blue Jays took him with the 17th pick in 2012.
   Dawson has been a one step up the ladder at a time guy, and his shoulder issue, which puts considerable strain on his shoulder, has caused him to be shut down several times for varying stretches.  2015 was his biggest year in terms of the amount he pitched, and it also marked his most successful season since turning pro.  Dawson was a Midwest League All Star with Lansing, and his 12 victories were good enough for thrid in the league, even though he started 5 games for Dunedin after a promotion.
   Despite topping out at about 91 with his fastball, Dawson struck out 98 MWL hitters in 101 innings, and another 22 in 26 IP for the D-Jays.  Control pitcher Dawson K'd about 4 hitters for every 1 he walked this year.  As you might expect with a pitcher who is around the plate so much, he does give up some contact, but kept it to under a hit an inning this year.
   Dawson doesn't really profile as a top prospect because of the veloctiy, and because of concerns about his shoulder.  However, you just have to look at the successful 16-year career of Mark Buehrle to know that there's more to getting hitters out than blowing them away.  As Hall of Famer Warren Spahn (another lefty who knew how to get hitters out) said, "Hitting is Timing.  Pitching is disrupting timing."
   Dawson will likely start the year at Dunedin.  If he succeeds, and earns a promotion to New Hampshire - and can continue to get hitters out - we have to look at him in a whole new light.

3.  Justin Shafer, RHP
   If you are looking for a sleeper prospect, this athletic Floridian might be your man.
Drafted in the 8th round last year, Shafer was mostly an outfielder for his three NCAA seasons with Florida, pitching 36 innings in his draft year.
   Sent to Vancouver last year, Shafer was assigned to Lansing to start the season, and earned a promotion to Dunedin early in the season.  The challenge proved to be a bit too much, and he finished the season in Lansing.
   Still, Shafer's rise is quite remarkable when you consider he didn't become a full-time pitcher until he turned pro.  He's added velocity on his fastball, touching 97 this year, but Shafer's bread-and-butter pitch is his sinker, which generates plenty of weak contact.  He also throws a change and slider, and added a cutter to his arsenal this year.
  Shafer is very much still a work in progress, and is still in the undergrad years of his pitching degree.  Sequencing pitches and learning to make mechanical adjustments during games are still areas requiring further development.  Just the same, Midwest League batters only managed a .223 average against him, and he had many outings where he had twice as many ground ball as fly ball outs.
   Shafer is still far, far away (if ever) from the bright lights of the big leagues. At the same time, he's made huge progress in a short period of time.  He is not a polished, finished product by any stretch of the imagination.  If he continues to develop, he could rise up the ranks quickly.  The Blue Jays seem to think so too, evidenced by his assignment to the Arizona Fall League.  Shafer's name may be one to toss out and casually mention to your baseball-minded friends, then remind them about him a year or two later.

4.  Lane Thomas, IF
   The usual progression for Blue Jays High School draftees goes as follows:  Gulf Coast League for season one, then the Appy and Northwest Leagues for seasons two and three.  Some accelerated prospects get to Vancouver sometime in their second season.
   Thomas was in that second group.  And as is the case sometimes, challenging a prospect with aggressive promotions can sometimes backfire.  A 5th round pick in 2014 from Bearden HS in Knoxville, TN, Thomas surged through the system last year, finishing strongly at Bluefield.  The premium athlete, who played mostly outfield in High School, seemed to be settling in nicely at 2nd Base when he was sent to the Pacific Northwest in June when the NWL season started.
   Thomas was hampered by a nagging wrist injury for much of the season, and struggled with the Canadians, hitting .225/.257/.391 in 43 games. He struggled to make to make good contact in June, fared a little better in July, and hit .500/.526/.778 in 4 games in the first week of August.   Promoted to Lansing after that run, he was overmatched by Low A pitchers before finishing the final two weeks of the season on the Disabled List.
    2015 was a huge year of adjustment for Lane.  He was learning a new position, as well as having to deal with living in, as much as we Canadians hate to admit it, in a foreign country, and dealing with the travel and playing under the lights for the first time - and at the more advanced competitive level of the NWL, as well.
  Baseball America had this to say about Lane in a pre-draft report:

Thomas, whose father Mike is a professional drag racer, is a good athlete with a strong build and well-rounded skill set, a plus runner under way with a chance to be a legitimate center fielder. The 5-foot-11, 175-pound Thomas has a quick stroke and the ability to create lots of hard contact, and he could develop average power. He drives the ball primarily to the pull side. Although he has rarely played shortstop this spring, he takes plenty of ground balls and some teams think his skill set plays better in the dirt with his above-average arm and athleticism. Scouts have split views on him depending up on how they view his defensive profile and bat. Some teams value him as high as the third round, while others think he is likely to reach campus at Tennessee.

   Thomas "just missed" this list last year; sample size was about the only thing holding back.  It would have been reasonable to assume a year ago that he would leap into the Top 20 this offseason, but 2015 was a setback year for him.  Setbacks for young players are not necessarily a bad thing, however - for some, this is their first extended taste of failure in a game that has been ridiculously easy for them since about the 3rd Grade.  If Thomas can put the adjustments he had to make and lessons he had to learn to good use next year, he should continue that upward trajectory.

5.  Lupe Chavez, RHP
   To close, why not go out on a limb?   In 2011, the Blue Jays signed a portly 16-year-old who had already faced men in Mexican League action.  Five years later, a slimmed-down Roberto Osuna played an integral role in the team's race to the post-season.
   In 2014, the team once again dipped into the ranks of teenaged Mexican hurlers to sign the 16-year-old Chavez.  Chavez had been an outfielder, but converted to pitching, and was considered one of the best pitching prospects in the country.  With a skinny (6'2"/150) but projectable build, scouts liked Chavez's advanced feel for pitching (the same thing many of them said about Osuna).  When he was signed, Chavez was already hitting 91, and was projected to climb as he matured.  His best pitch has long been his change-up, and has a steadily improving breaking ball.
  The usual starting point for International Free Agents like Chavez is the Dominican Summer League, where organizations can house their young players, making sure that they received proper nutrition and instruction.  If successful, they usually start the next season stateside in the GCL.  By many reports, Chavez had a terrific debut at Florida Instructs last fall, but a bit of a roster crunch saw him begin 2015 in the DSL.  He outpitched Juan Meza, who the Blue Jays signed to a higher bonus after being ranked the 10th best IFA last year.
  After dominating DSL hitters in 10 starts, Chavez' timetable was moved up, and he found himself in the GCL in August.  In 4 appearances for the GCL Jays, he did not look out of place.  Clearly, he's on the fast track, and should begin next year in Bluefield.
   It's both a sign of the lack of depth in the system and a testament to Chavez' rise that I think that he's worthy of inclusion on this list.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week Three

  All four Blue Jays minor league affiliates are well underway with their seasons, so I thought I would narrow my focus a bit and take a look at some players worth keeping an eye on in the system - players who, as you move down the system, may not make an appearance and/or an impact for the big league club this year, but have a chance to get there at some point.

Buffalo
   The Bisons are a veteran team, but are well worth the trip down the QEW to watch, sitting atop the International League north standings.
  At the moment, there are not a lot of players who could reasonably be called prospects - the Bisons roster is filled more with injury insurance guys.
   Of the players who fit that prospect category, C A.J. Jimenez and IF Andy Burns would be the most worth watching.  The oft-injured Jimenez had his season debut delayed by yet another stint on the DL, but after starting at New Hampshire, he's now in Buffalo.  I watched him catch Matt Boyd's start on April 20th, and there's so much to like about him as a receiver.  Jimenez is quick and athletic, and blocks balls in the dirt well.  He's already a good framer of pitches, and helped Boyd immensely on a night when he was fighting his command with his breaking pitches a bit.  The question mark, in addition to his ability to stay healthy, is his bat.  If not for his injury, however, he may have gotten the call over Josh Thole when Dioner Navarro went on the DL. Jimenez will make a fine defense-first catcher, but his bat may limit the extent of his role on a big league club one day.
   Burns is a 3B/SS who was being groomed as a super utility player, but has played mostly 3rd and 2nd this year.  He started with New Hampshire, but was promoted to the Bisons and went 4-4 in his first game.  Burns got off to a slow start at AA last year, and I had originally thought he might be a September call up at the outset of the 2014 season.  He's another one of those overlooked guys the Blue Jays have loved to draft over the last half decade.  He had to sit out his senior NCAA season after transferring from Kentucky to Arizona, but the Jays didn't forget about him, and took him in the 11th round in 2011.
   At 27, Scott Copeland can no longer be considered a prospect, but since last August, he's placed himself on the radar.  As I write this, he went 5 strong innings for Buffalo tonight, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits, walking 3 and striking out 1 - and this has been one of his poorer outings, the first one where he hasn't at least pitched into the 6th.  Copeland, of course, is not a strikeout per inning guy.  He averages over 2.5 groundouts for every fly ball out.  He just doesn't give up a lot of hard contact:

   Of course, the only way we'll likely see Copeland is if there is an injury situation, and/or a complete meltdown of the major league rotation.  And vets like Randy Wolf and maybe Andrew Albers, Jeff Francis, or possibly even Felix Doubront might get the call before him.  At the same time, what Copeland has done since arriving in Buffalo late last season is get hitters out, posting a 1.80 ERA in 7 starts over the last two seasons, and allowing just 27 hits in 45 innings.

New Hampshire
   Boyd is the obvious pick here, but he's not the only one.  I've written before that he had a better April and May than Daniel Norris or Kendall Graveman last year, before running into some injury issues that weren't enough to sideline him, but limited his effectiveness over the last half of the year.
  I have a more detailed post coming up later this week about him, but Boyd is well worth watching.  Like Copeland, he's not necessarily a power arm, although he had added velo this year.  He relies more on command and his feel for pitching.  At the same time, Boyd's 30 K's are just 3 off the minor league lead.  It's best to see him soon if you're thinking of making a trip east to see him, because he may be in Buffalo by June if he continues to pitch as well as he has.
   Dwight Smith Jr is making quite a name for himself as a hitter.  The Blue Jays tried experimenting with him at 2nd in the Arizona Fall League and in spring training, because his bat doesn't really have the power to profile as a corner outfielder.  He put up solid numbers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and has continued to rake in AA, hitting .324/.361/.485.  Smith has hit in the 2nd spot in New Hampshire's order, and has benefitted immensely from having vets Jake Fox and KC Hobson behind him the lineup.  If speedster Jon Berti can get on base more frequently ahead of Smith in the order, he'll see even more fastballs.  With Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar ahead of him, there's no spot in the majors for Smith at the moment, but he should join Boyd in Buffalo in a few weeks.

Dunedin
   The D-Jays have a young lineup, and have had trouble showing much consistency so far.
Dawel Lugo and Mitch Nay have potential impact bats, but have struggled.  Roemon Fields may be the fastest player in the organization, but he has had trouble getting on base.
    LHP Jairo Labourt has alternated good outings with not-so-good ones so far this year.  Walks have been his nemesis as they were in his abbreviated stint in the Midwest League last year.  He's been missing bats and the strike zone at almost the same rate.  RHP Alberto Tirado has been sent to the bullpen in an attempt to harness his electric stuff, and for the most part, it's been working.  There's just not a lot of projection for a bullpen guy in High A.
   Dunedin is very much a work in progress.  Almost all of the info I get on them is second hand, of course, because there's no milb.tv coverage of the Florida State League, and the D-Jays play in front of a couple thousand empy seats every night.

Lansing
   This is the must-see team in the organization, and thanks to milb.tv, you can see them a fair amount, although not at home.
   Any discussion about this team now starts with Anthony Alford, the two sport star who is as fabulous a story as he is an athlete.  I've written a few thousand words about him, so please go back through my archives and have a look.
   The Reader's Digest Alford story:  A Mississippi all-state baseball and football star, small-town Alford was one of the nation's top football recruits in 2012, and the Blue Jays took him with their 3rd round pick, even though he had a scholarship to Southern Miss in hand.  He was labelled a 3rd rounder with first round talent - a story making the rounds recently is that the Blue Jays area scout for MS gave him the highest grade of any prospect in that year's draft class.
   Alford was involved in a campus incident in which a gun was pulled (not by him) after his freshman year, and he had his scholarship lifted.  Alford then enrolled at Ole Miss, and had to sit out a year due to transfer rules. He continued to report to the Blue Jays minor league complex in Florida after spring football, but his seasons were always cut short by the need to head back to campus in August, meaning that he had amassed just over 100 PAs over his first three minor league seasons.
   The Blue Jays offered Alford much of Front Street to give up football this past summer, but he declined.
Suddenly, in late September, he left Ole Miss, and announced his intention to give up his gridiron dreams.  I talked to him via Twitter about it, and while he didn't come right out and say it, Alford suggested that he initially went with football because he felt pressured to do so.  Football is King in Mississippi, and it's completely understandable that a young, impressionable young man would feel an obligation to pursue it if he was blessed with such talent.  Somehow, someone said something this fall that lifted the world off of his shoulders, and it convinced him that it was okay for him to make the switch to his first love of baseball, and he reported to Florida for Instructional League play.
   In order to get him some more ABs, the Blue Jays sent him to play in the Australian Baseball League this winter.  The veteran ABL pitchers with their breaking pitches often tied Alford up in knots, and he admitted that he got into a lot of unfavourable hitters' counts.  The experience seems to have paid off however, as had the time he spent with the Blue Jays in spring training (he said Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson made the biggest impression on him).  He spent some time this month on Lansing's DL with a knee issue, but he's been bashing since his return this past week, hitting .364/.417/.500 in 5 games with the Lugs.  The highlight of his week had to be the night he scored on a sacrifice fly - from 2nd base.
   I asked Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler about what has impressed him the most about Alford, and he said his AB's have been a study in patience, often working into 2-2 or 3-2 counts.  Unlike in Australia, when he widened his strike zone considerably with two strikes,  Goldberg-Strassler says that Alford looks like a very comfortable two-strike hitter.  And Alford's also not trying to pull the ball - he's hitting the ball up the middle and to right field.  All of these are signs of rapidly improving pitch recognition.
   I don't want to get ahead of myself, but Alford could be the best position player in the organization very soon.
    But Alford is not the only prospect on display in the Michigan State Capital. Among the others:

-1B Rowdy Tellez -  a power-hitting first baseman who has transformed his formerly chunky body.  The Midwest League is a tough home runs hitter's loop because of its parks with high outfield walls and the April and May winds that always seem to be knocking fly balls down, but I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of power numbers Tellez produces for Lansing.

-1B/DH/OF Ryan McBroom  The 15th round pick from last year's draft has mostly hit behind Tellez in the Lugnuts order, and pretty much all he has done is hit.  The power hasn't shown up just yet, but he's posted an impressive .323/.408/.418 line.

-OF DJ Davis  Davis is repeating Low A after failing to make much contact last year, striking out in 32% of his PAs.  And his vaunted speed didn't translate into a high stolen base total, as he was thrown out more times (20) than he wasn't (19).  Davis is making betting contact so far this season, and is hitting .302/.397/.444.

-C Danny Jansen When he's healthy and finally activated, Max Pentecost may ascend to the majors faster, but Jansen may well prove to be the Blue Jays catcher of the future.  He's had a slow start at the plate, but his bat has started to come around, and word has spread around the MWL that Jansen is tough to run on.

-RHP Chase De Jong  De Jong is repeating Lansing as well, and with the exception of his last start, appears to be on track for a mid-season promotion to Dunedin.  De Jong struck out 9 in his first start, but he's more of a finesse pitcher who relies on finesse and command. Which he didn't have in his most recent outing, and gave up a pair of homers.

-RHP Sean Reid-Foley The 2014 2nd round steal is perhaps the highest-ceiling member of Lansing's rotation.  On a shorter pitch count leash than his teammates at this point, Reid-Foley has struck out 13 in only 7 innings over 3 starts.

-SS Richard Urena Jose Reyes' potential successor, the 19 year old has held his own at the plate so far, hitting .241/.274/.345, and playing stellar defence.  Some have labelled his glove major league ready.  A switch hitter, Urena's bat from the right side has always been a concern, and he's struggled against lefties so far.

-LHP Shane Dawson The soft-tossing Drayton Valley, AB (as far as I can tell, only two minor leaguers come from a more northerly location than Dawson), southpaw relies on deception to get hitters out, which he's been doing at a healthy clip.  Shoulder injuries have sidelined Dawson each of the past two years, but he is fully recovered, and should move up to Dunedin at some point this season.  MWL hitters are currently hitting a paltry .113 against him.

  Other names due to soon get an assignment to a full-season team:  2015 1st rounder Jeff Hoffman, almost a year removed from Tommy John surgery; 2014 2nd rounder Clinton Hollon, and possible lefty Matt Smoral, who I thought was a lock for Lansing, but struggled this spring and was kept behind for extended spring training.

Top Prospects: Five Who Just Missed

   When you follow prospects, you're used to them having a series of ups and downs over the course of several weeks and months.  Sometimes the peaks and valleys even out, and the prospect continues on an upward trajectory of development. For some prospects, it's not that smooth a process.
   For those that don't ride the wave and are stuck in a trough that lasts a whole season, it's tough to include them on a top prospects list, no matter how good their tools may be.  Other prospects are difficult to include because their small sample sizes make projections hard to determine.  Even other prospects make for tough decisions because they were a bit old for the level they were playing at.  And sometimes we just overvalued them, ignoring some flaws that were not necessarily obvious ones, but were there just the same.
  Here are five prospects who just missed the cut for our top 20 prospects list.  We're still high on all of them, but felt there wasn't enough there to justify their inclusion this year.

  We've been waiting a while for DJ Davis to fulfill the expectations the Blue Jays had for him when they made him the 17th pick in the 2012 draft.  One of the youngest players in the draft, and raw because of his Mississippi HS background,  the toolsy Davis  made Baseball America's GCL Top Prospects List at #3 that year, and was their 2nd-ranked Appy League Prospect last year. Here's what BA's Clint Longenecker had to say about him after that season:

      He was one of the league’s most exciting players, offering quick-twitch athleticism, a center-field profile and game-changing speed—though he’s learning how to take full advantage of it.

Davis has quick hands, above-average bat speed and surprised many with his power, as 41 percent of his hits went for extra bases. Although peak power of 10-15 home runs is most likely, the most optimistic evaluators believed Davis has the power to hit 20.

   What a difference a year makes.  Davis had monumental struggles at the plate this year in his first go at full season ball in the Midwest League.  Davis hit .213/.268/.316, and his 167 strikeouts (in 542 PAs) were 2nd in the loop.  The left-handed hitting Davis hit only .161 against lefthanders, and indications are that a lot of his swing and misses were not necessarily at pitches out of the zone (although pitch recognition is also an area of concern, too), indicating some issues with his swing plane.  One of the fastest  players in all of minor league baseball, Davis has yet to learn to take advantage of that tool, getting thrown out 20 times in 39 stolen base attempts.

   One of the youngest players in the league, Davis did play some highlight-reel defence, And he finished the season on a high note, hitting .265/.375/.441 over his last 10 games (there were 16 Ks over that span), which included 3 straight successful steals in a game against Dayton.  We've made the comparison between Davis and Dalton Pompey before, and while maybe it's not a completely fair or accurate one, we think there are many parallels between the two, the latest being that Pompey caught fire in his last few weeks at Lansing last year as well.  Given his draft status, Davis has more ground to catch up on. At 20 years of age, we're not ready to give up on him, but we couldn't justify including him in our Top 20 this year.  He will likely need to at least start the season again in Lansing.

 

MLBFarm.com Graph

 
   Alberto Tirado was labelled a "beast" by Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus after a breakout 2013 season.  BA labelled him the prospect with the most upside on a very deep Bluefield pitching staff that he helped lead to the Appy League playoffs:

  The athletic Tirado is an unrefined pitcher whom scouts can dream on because he has some of the most electric stuff in the lower minors. He has a thin, wiry build, long limbs and a loose arm that is lightning quick, and the ball explodes out his hand. His fastball sat 92-96 mph with late life and touched 98, and he is working a sinker into game action. 

    BA also observed that Tirado had a tendency to overthrow, and could get off line with his delivery, resulting in command issues.  The club opted to skip him over Vancouver this season, and made him one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, where he struggled mightily.  Tirado had a scintillating debut with Lansing in April, striking out 7 in 4 innings.  We watched an early May start Tirado made against Dayton, and other than one inning, he really wasn't in trouble, allowing 1 run and one hit, with three walks and four strikeouts over 5.  He demonstrated reasonably good command on a cool spring Ohio night, and we didn't see the delivery issues that must have plagued him in other outings. It turns out that that outing was likely his high water mark for the season, as his control slipped after that, and he was sent back to Florida for Extended a month later.  His totals for a truncated season at Low A included 40Ks in 39 innings, but along with 40 walks.

  A week after leaving Lansing, Tirado headed northwest to join Vancouver when short season play started.  He continued to struggle with his command, and was shut down for a few weeks in late June, likely for emotional as well as physical reasons.  When he came back, Tirado pitched out of the C's pen, and except for getting roughed up in one outing, was mostly effective.  When he was on, he was sitting between 93-95 and creating a lot of weak contact.

   You can't give up on an arm like Tirado's, and he would be far from the first Dominican prospect to struggle in his first year of full season ball, learning to adjust to a new culture, new language, and new climate.  At the same time, he may have been over-rated off of last year's performance.  At 6' 180 lbs, he doesn't have a typical pitcher's build, and his command issues may limit him in the future to bullpen duties.  Those two red flags, combined with the step backward his development took this year meant that we considered him, but ultimately decided against his inclusion in our Top 20.

MLBFarm.com Graph

 Sometimes, a prospect has shown enough in limited action to warrant closer scrutiny, but the sample size just isn't big enough.  We like what we have seen, but they just haven't played enough at a higher level to make a firm prediction about their ceiling.  Such is the case with Dan Jansen, another player from a non-traditional baseball state (Wisconsin) that the Jays took with their 16th round pick in 2013.
   Jansen has shown effectiveness on both sides of the ball in his first two pro seasons, but a knee injury limited his 2014 season to 36 games with Bluefield.  He was named the Appy League's 16th best prospect this year after positing a .282/.390/.484 line.  At 6'2, 215 lbs, he has a great build for a catcher, and shows excellent bat speed.  Behind the plate, he projects to be at least an average defender.  The advancement of his receiving skills are something of a surprise, given his relatively limited high school playing time. He's a good blocker of balls in the dirt, but his arm is graded as average.  He has drawn raves for his maturity and ability to handle a pitching staff.
   The problem, of course, is that Jansen has played only parts to two years in short season ball.  He was in consideration for a spot in the back end of our Top 20, but we don't have a big enough body of work to go on.  Jansen is still far away.  With the acquisition of free agent catcher Russell Martin, the need to accelerate Jansen isn't pressing, but given what we've read about his leadership abilities, the Blue Jays may likely skip him over Vancouver to Lansing this year, giving him a chance to handle a potentially deep, young pitching staff (with possibly Borucki, Smoral, and Tinoco on board), and to play every day.  We will be following him closely next year.
   Jansen contemplated a college football career.  He talks about his decision to sign with the Blue Jays here:

    Sometimes, a player puts up amazing numbers in a league, but upon closer inspection,  it turns out that the player was several years older than the average player in the league.  And that opens up some suspicion about what the player's true ceiling is.
   Such is the case with Roemon Fields.  Fields was the true good news story of the year in the organization.  Undrafted after graduating from a tiny Kansas NAIA school (after transferring from a Washington State college), Fields was working for the US Postal Service in his hometown of Seattle, when he was asked to join an American entry in an International amateur tournament in Prince George, BC.  He caught the eye there of  Matt Bishoff, who made Fields his first sign as a Toronto scout.
   Fields made his pro debut with Vancouver in 2014, and obliterated the Northwest League's stolen base record with 48 in 57 attempts, and hit .269/.338/.350 for the C's.  BA ranked him as the NWL's 20th prospect.
   At 23, Fields was playing in a league populated mostly be 2014 college grads, but he still was a bit old for that level.  He does hit to all fields, but not for much power, and he needs to make more consistent contact and get on base more frequently to take advantage of his speed.  He is a maker of highlight reel catches in centrefield.  At his age, there isn't much room (if any) left for projection:  he is what he is, and what he's going to be.
   So, we have to take Fields' first pro season with a grain of salt.  In all likelihood, he will move up to Lansing this year (or even Dunedin, if Davis repeats at Lansing), so we will watch with interest to see how he measures up in full season ball - where he still will be one of the oldest players.


    A rough month can do a lot to derail a prospect's progress, not to mention his batting average.  For a young pro ball player, their first prolonged slump can be a devastating thing.  For many, it's their first real experience with failure on an extended basis.  For those that survive, they quickly learn to put failure behind them, and at the same time not to become overly elated with success.  Elite athletes all share that quality of being able to quickly put failure behind them.
   For Shortstop Dawel Lugo, August of 2014 was a month to forget.  Not only did his average drop over 30 points, his presence on our Top 20 list dropped as well.  Coming off a hot July in which he hit .298/.324/.423, Lugo hit a paltry .147/.180/.189 in August, the grind of his first year of full season ball no doubt having taken its toll on his young frame and psyche.
   Lugo still needs to walk more (18 in 492 PAs this year), but he puts the ball in play (only 74 Ks).  It's not a matter of pitch recognition as much as it is a need to become more selective, and work pitchers into deeper counts in order to get a more favourable pitch.  Laying off pitches outside of the strike zone would help, too. There's nothing like a good spray chart to illustrate how many balls Lugo puts in play:

MBLfarm.com graph

   Lugo is not projected to stay at Short, but in the games we observed him in he showed good lateral movement, soft hands, a fairly quick release, and a strong, accurate arm.  His range likely will be an issue as he continues to grow (he's only 20), so a move to a corner infield spot may be in his future. Baseball Prospectus labelled him a potential impact bat after 2013, and BA named him the Appalachian League's #5 prospect.  If his season had ended about July 20th, Lugo would have likely been a solid mid-teens member of our Top 20 list.  He can easily put himself back on our radar with a good start next year.
 
 There you have it:  5 prospects who have not turned into suspects, but 5 for whom 2015 will be an important season in determining their future.

   By the way, we wrote about how the Blue Jays acquired 1987 AL MVP George Bell in the 1980 edition of the Rule 5 draft, despite the Phillies' best attempts to hide him.

Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects: 11-20

11.  Devon Travis 2B
     Travis is the latecomer to this list, and while what we've read about him has mostly been positive, we don't know enough about him yet to bump him further up the list.
  Travis reminds us a bit of Kevin Pillar.  Not highly rated in his draft year and the owner of average to slightly above average tools, all Travis has done in three minor league seasons is hit, posting a .323/.388/.487 line.  Baseball America is firmly in the Travis camp, noting that he has hit at every level.  Here's more from their latest report on him:
 
   He has superb hand-eye coordination, good balance at the plate and strong bat control, which allows him to make consistent contact and use the whole field. He’s a smart player who’s been able to make adjustments as he’s moved up the ladder

   Keith Law, on the other hand, is less than sold:

   Had a great year but....... he's old for where he played, and he's an undersized guy without tools. Not a prospect for me, nor for any of the scouts I talked to who'd seen him.

   The true evaluation of Travis probably lies somewhere in between.  The Tigers, faced with a thin market for outfielders, felt that Anthony Gose could develop into at least a league average player, and act as insurance if Steven Moya proves to be not quite ready for MLB action.  They also felt that they could live with several more years of Ian Kinsler, even with his production due to start to decline, at second base, ahead of Travis.
   You're not getting an all star with Travis.  You're not getting a gold glover or much of a base stealing threat, either.  What you are getting is a guy who consistently barrels up the ball, who may hit 10 to 15 home runs a year, and a guy who has made the necessary adjustments at every level he has played at.  And with second being a bit of a black hole in the Jays lineup for several years, the club will take that.

Travis' Milb Page

ETA: late 2015/early 2016
Projection: everyday 2nd baseman, bottom third of the order bate
Worst Case Scenario:  utility infielder

12.  Sean Nolin  LHP
   Nolin has been the forgotten man in the Blue Jays plans, but he showed this fall in Arizona that when he's healthy, he can very much be in the picture.
   Leg injuries have limited Nolin to 20 starts in each of the last two years.  In 2013, he matched Marcus Stroman strikeout for strikeout with New Hampshire.  At 6"4"/230, Nolin is projected as a back of the rotation innings eater.
   Nolin commands all four of his pitches well.  His fastball grades as average, but he can touch 95 on occasion.  His size allows him to create a downhill plane on his pitches, and his delivery can make it tough for hitters to pick up the ball.  Nolin gave up a fair number of fly balls earlier in his minor league career, but he induced much more groundball contact this year.
   The biggest challenge Nolin has faced the past two years is staying healthy.  Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, and possibly even Kendall Graveman have passed him.  The lefthander went to Arizona this fall to make up for lost innings, and after a couple of rough outings early in the schedule, he was back to his old form over the last half.
   It's hard to say where Nolin fits in the Blue Jays plans.  Called up in 2013 for an emergency start, he caught too much of the strike zone and was pummeled by the Orioles.  Even though he missed almost a month this year, he pitched well down the stretch for Buffalo, and was called up when MLB rosters expanded at the end of August, but pitched all of one inning in September.
 With the the starting rotation beginning to become a bit crowded,  Nolin's greatest value to the club may be as trade bait.

Nolin's Milb Page

ETA:   2015
Projection:  Back of the rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Front of the bullpen guy



13.  Max Pentecost  C
 The Blue Jays nabbed Pentecost with their second first round pick in June, 11th overall.
All indications were that he was a hit-first, defence-second receiver, but was at least adequate behind the plate.  Jason Kendall comps were made.
  After he signed,  Pentecost spent the obligatory week in the Gulf Coast League, then was off to Vancouver, for what was presumed to be the real start of a brief apprenticeship in the minors, which would see him in the majors leagues as early as next summer.
   Pentecost arrived in the Pacific Northwest in rough shape however, likely from the rigors of an extended collegiate season on a frame that scouts felt could use some bulking up to begin with.  Pentecost was behind the plate for only 6 games for the C's, and was limited to 87 Plate Appearances before being shut down and sent back to Florida for rest and rehab in August. Reports we had about his catching skills in that small sample size were less than glowing, but we'll give Pentecost a pass for now.
   Pentecost turned out to have a shoulder injury which didn't respond to treatment, and underwent what we presume is surgery to repair a torn labrum on October 8th.  Recovery from the procedure, of course, depends on the extent of the damage, but it's typically 9 months to a year for a full recovery. Which means that 2015 isn't necessarily a write off for him, but it does move the projection back, and the signing of Russell Martin takes away the urgency.
   Pentecost has above-average speed for a catcher, and has a line drive swing that isn't projected to produce great power, but should generate plenty of singles and doubles.  There is every indication that he is a premium athlete - he was the MVP of the summer collegiate Cape Cod League in 2013, and won the Johnny Bench Award as the nation's top college catcher in 2014.  There is every indication that he will be a solid contributor to the lineup.  The injury issue which has stalled his timetable is the only thing keeping him out of the Top 10.

Pentecost's Milb Page

ETA:  Late 2016
Projection: hit first, defence second catcher
Worst Case Scenario: platoon catcher

14.  Mitch Nay  3B
  Nay may have been surpassed by Pompey, Barreto, and maybe Alford as the best position player prospect in the system, but he still figures highly in the Blue Jays future plans.
  Nay missed a season of development in 2012 due to a broken foot, but had a breakout year in short season play in 2013, raking at Bluefield before being promoted to Vancouver in time for the NWL playoffs, in which he was named the MVP.  This season at Lansing, the power wasn't in present in as much quantity as had been hoped, but his 34 doubles were tied for third in the league.  The Midwest League is not a home run hitters paradise, particularly the Lugnuts' home Cooley Law School Stadium.  Power is often the last took in a hitter's kit to develop, so the thinking that some of those doubles will turn into homers in more favourable environments.
  Nay has an advanced approach at the plate, and makes consistently hard, up the middle contact.  He still projects as a middle of the order of the bat.  The concern about Nay has always been about his range, which can take away from his plus arm.  With Brett Lawrie ensconced at third for the foreseeable future, a move across the diamond may be in store for Nay.
  Other top prospects list have ranked Nay higher than we have, and while we're still high on him, his presence on this secondary tier is more of a reflection on the rate of his development relative to other players in the system.

Nay's Milb Page

ETA:  Late 2017
Projection:  Middle of the order, starting 3rd Baseman
Worst Case Scenario:  IB/DH platoon player

15.  Matt Smoral  LHP
   Smoral was yet another gem the Blue Jays drafted who other scouts shied away from because of a broken foot in his senior year of high school and a college commitment.  Toronto took him as a comp pick in 2012 and gave him a $2 million bonus, and were prepared to wait on the 6'8" lefthander.
   Smoral didn't make his pro debut until the GCL started in June of 2013, and missed a fair number of bats.  And when he wasn't missing bats, he was missing the strike zone.
   The Blue Jays moved him up the ladder to the Appalachian League in 2014,  Smoral's  Appy debut was a sizzling one, striking out 8 and walking 3 in 3 innings.  Named the league's 7th prospect by BA, Smoral was promoted to Vancouver in August, and wasn't overmatched against older hitters, although a meltdown in the NWL finals by Smoral cost the C's a chance at a four-peat.
   Smoral touches 96 with his fastball, with late life.  His slider was one of the best in short season ball, and projects as a plus pitch.  While he made strides with his delivery this season, Smoral still must improve on his command (5.7K/9 this year).
   Smoral projects as a front of the rotation starter if he can harness his command.  Tall lefthanders who missed a year of development tend to take longer to reach their ceiling, so the Blue Jays may not be as aggressive with their promotion of him as they were with other pitchers this year.

Smoral's Milb Page

ETA:  2017
Projection: #2/#3 starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Brett Cecil or Aaron Loup's replacement

16.  Dwight Smith
   If Mitch Nay flew under the radar this year in the shadow of more high profile position players in the system, the son of the former Major Leaguer by the same name was barely a blip on the screen.
Playing in the Florida State League in front of dozens of spectators every night, all Smith did was post an OPS of .816 with virtually no protection in the lineup, in cavernous FSL stadiums, and in the flyball-killing Florida heat.
   A sandwich pick in 2011, Smith has made steady, if unspectacular progress.  Smith lacks the power of a corner outfielder, and the Blue Jays may have plans to try to turn him into a multi-position utility player, as evidenced by the brief trial he had at second base in the Arizona Fall League. It will be interesting to see if the club has him play several positions at New Hampshire next year.
   We find that when we talk about prospects who are in this tier, we tend to talk about what they can't do.  What Smith can do is get on base consistently, and use his line drive stroke to find the gaps.  He has average speed, which all but rules out centrefield, except in an emergency.
   It doesn't hurt that Smith hits from the left side, too.

Smith's Milb Page

ETA: Late 2016/early 2017
Projection:  Platoon Corner OF
Worst Case Scenario:  Utility Player

17.  Rowdy Tellez
   The legend of Rowdy Tellez is growing.
A hitter of prodigious BP and Home Run Derby blasts in various Showcase events as a High Schooler, MLB teams were scared off by his USC commitment prior to last year's draft, but the Blue Jays used savings gained elsewhere in the draft to convince him to sign after taking him in the 28th round.
   Tellez struggled in the first weeks of his pro debut season in the GCL last year, but found his groove in the closing week, when he hit everything hard.  Sent to Bluefield this season, Tellez got off to another slow start, including an 0-33 stretch, but caught fire and hit .293/.358/.424.  The club skipped Tellez over Vancouver to Lansing, where he acquitted himself well in two weeks of play.
  There is no disguising Tellez's role.  He is a bat first player, period.  Yet his is not necessarily a hit or miss approach.  Tellez has shown patience at the plate, walking almost as much as he struck out this year.  He has above average bat speed, and can drive balls to the opposite field.
   At 6"5"/230, Tellez is a below average runner who will have to pay attention to his conditioning, and work hard to be even an average first baseman.  He should return to Lansing this year, and will likely split time at first and DH with the presence of Ryan McBroom, who had a great debut season at Vancouver.  We are excited about his future, but he is still far away, and if he doesn't hit, he won't provide any value to the club.

Tellez's Milb Page

ETA:  2017/18
Projection:  Middle of the Order 1B/DH
Worst Case Scenario:  AAAA Player

18.  Jairo Labourt
   There's a temptation to label Labourt as a disappointment this year.
The tall Dominican lefty started the year with Lansing, where he was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, and he struggled mightily, walking 20 batters in 14 innings. To be fair, he was not the only prospect on the team who had difficulty with the challenge the organization presented him with.
   Sent back to extended spring training, Labourt rediscovered his command, and was sent off to Vancouver when short season play started, where he became the C's ace, and was named the NWL's third best prospect by BA.
   Labourt challenges hitters with his mid 90s fastball, and was very successful against right handed hitters, who hit .171/.286/.202.  Labourt demonstrated much better command with Vancouver, striking out 82 and walking 37 in 71 innings. He did hit 8 batters, showing a willingness to pitch inside.
   If not for his Lansing experience, we would no doubt be looking at Labourt's season through a different lens.  His is a live arm that should perform well in another stint at Lansing.  The organization has to make a 40 man roster decision on Labourt after next season, so his timeline may be moved up.

Labourt's Milb Page

ETA:  2017
Projection:  Middle of the rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Front of the bullpen guy

19.  Sean Reid-Foley

   When a prospect drops in the draft due to concerns either about signability or durability, you can bet that the Blue Jays will be in the running to scoop him up.  They covet impact players.

   Such was the case with righthander Reid-Foley, who fell to the Blue Jays in the second round last June.  Some teams were scared off by his delivery, while others felt that he was committed to Florida State. The Blue Jays felt that they scored another first rounder.

   Reid-Foley caught a heavy dose of helium last spring with added velocity on his fastball.  At 6'3"/215, and with a fastball that touched 97, he was a man among boys in Florida high school competition.  He pounds the strike zone, and shows an advanced feel for pitching.
  There are concerns about his delivery.   He throws across his body, and the inverted W in his delivery is a tell-tale sign of future elbow/shoulder issues to some.  You can't really see the W here, but what you can see is a compact delivery, a nasty slider, and hit and miss stuff:

Reid-Foley's Milb page

ETA: 2018

Projection:   Front of the rotation starter

Worst Case Scenario:  Hard to determine - he's very far away

   
20.  Ryan Borucki

   This was the hardest of all our prospect picks to make.  We had to choose from a variety of players at different stages of development.  There were some we considered who had disappointing seasons but still have high ceilings (DJ Davis), some who surprised, but are too far away (Lane Thomas),  and some who we're still high on, but have to wonder about their earlier projections (Dawel Lugo/Alberto Tirado).
   Ultimately, we've decided to go with Borucki.  In his high school senior year, he played mostly first base, due to an elbow injury that he chose to rehab.  The Blue Jays took a flyer on the tall, athletic Illinoisan, and took him in the 15th round in 2012.
   The injury didn't respond to treatment, and Borucki opted for Tommy John surgery in March the following season, which cost him all of 2013.  Borucki teamed up with Smoral in the Bluefield rotation this year, and followed him to Vancouver late in the season.  He had the lowest walk/9 ratio (1.6), and the best K-BB ratio (5.0) of any lefthander in the Appy League.  He pitched even better in the Northwest League.  On the year, Borucki gave up just 39 hits in 57 IP this year, walking  only 9, while striking out 52.
   Borucki sat between 92-94 early in the season, but lost a touch of velocity as the season wore on, which isn't a surprise.  He pitches off his fastball, and the best of his secondary pitches at this point is his change, which shows plus potential.  His curveball will need an upgrade if he is to repeat his success at higher levels.
  At 6'4", Borucki still has plenty of room for projection.

Borucki's Milb Page

ETA:  Late 2017/Early 2018
Projection: Middle to end of the rotation starter
Worst Case Scenario:  Front end of the bullpen guy
 

Blue Jays Dominate BA's Short Season Top Prospects List

    There quite simply is no publication that does a better job of keeping readers up to date about prospects and trends across college and minor league baseball than Baseball America.
   Even though the minor league season has drawn to a close, BA still keeps fans interested by publishing their Top 20 Prospects for every minor league, starting about mid-September.
   Since information for lower level prospects can be hard to find unless you're willing to go behind a pay wall, these lists are gold for a prospect hound.  We've mined some Blue Jays-related nuggets from the chats BA held after publishing their Top 20 Gulf Coast, Appalachian, and Northwest Leagues lists, featuring BA staffers Ben Badler, Clint Longenecker, and John Manuel, who are three of the best in the business.
  Some might think it's a bit lazy of us to just list these conversation snippets, but we would rather present them in full and then offer our comments about them.  And it saves you, dear reader, from having to go to BA's website and look them up for yourself.  Which you're more than welcome to do, of course.

Josh (Windsor, ONT): Beyond the four players that made the top 20, are there any sleeper prospects from the Bluefield club? Further, do the Jays have anything with Jesus Tinoco?
Clint Longenecker: Yes, the Blue Jays lower minor league teams always have talent, a tribute to their international and domestic scouting departments. Jesus Tinoco has a real chance to emerge with continue development, both physically and mentally. He has youth (19), a great body, the fastball (velo and life) as a foundation for his prospect status. He can really sink the baseball. His combination of fastball velocity and heavy sink reminded some of former Blue Jay farmhand Henderson Alvarez, who has the 7th highest GB rate among MLB starters. His changeup is presently his best secondary offering and his curveball shows 12-6 tilt at its best, though it is inconsistent. Tinoco will need to improve his lower half in his delivery because he often collapses his front leg and falls off to the first base side, causing him to not get on top of his pitches. But he has the raw materials to emerge. Keep your eye on Tinoco.

   We feel the same way about Tinoco.  He did not pitch as badly as his numbers would suggest this year.  We asked Bluefield Catcher Danny Jansen about Tinoco, who said he had, "Dominant stuff. He throws hard and when he got his sinker working, he was really hard to hit."

   His numbers (4.95 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .270 BA) were obviously influenced by the times when he didn't have that sinker working.  Tinoco pitched 6 innings in 4 of his starts, which is a lengthy outing by lower minors standards, and gave up a total of only four earned runs over those starts, adding more credence to the notion that when he was on, he was really on.

   We should also point out that Jansen, who was having a great season (.283/.390/.484) before being sidelined with a knee injury in early August, was named the Appy's 16th best prospect, and may have been ranked higher if not for the injury.

   We admit to having overlooked Josh Almonte and his success at Bluefield this year,  mainly because it was his third season of rookie ball.  The organization may need to accelerate him next year to get a truer sense of what they have.

Gerry (Toronto): Josh Almonte had a breakout season, hitting over 300. Was he close to the list?
Clint Longenecker: Almonte absolutely had a case from a tools-based perspective. A late-round Northeast prep player, Almonte really blossomed this year after struggling to make contact in the GCL for 2 years. He has tools with his plus speed and arm, as well as above-average raw power he shows in batting practice. Although he hit .300 this year, Almonte’s line was propped up by an unsustainable BABIP (.413) that was among the highest in the league and unlikely to continue going forward. His breaking ball recognition will need to continue to improve. His upward trajectory is very encouraging and he will be one to monitor going forward.

Here are some thoughts about Lane Thomas, a 5th round pick in June, who was promoted from the GCL to the Appy League:

Ben (DC): How close did Lane Thomas come to making the list? Seems like he had a good yr in GCL for Blue Jays. Thanks.
Ben Badler: Another close call. He’s an explosive athlete with plus speed and squared up a lot of balls for hard contact, although the over-the-fence pop didn’t show up this year. He’s intriguing, and I still like Yeltsin Gudino and Freddy Rodriguez, even if their numbers didn’t do much to inspire confidence next year. They can’t all be Franklin Barreto.

Ben (DC): Any feedback on Lane Thomas from his brief time in Bluefield? Seems like he was a very interesting pick this year who did well this year. Did Rowdy Tellez come close? Thanks.

Clint Longenecker: Lane Thomas is an exciting player that the Bluefield staff praised. He got time at third base this summer, an interesting development because he has an above-average arm. He ran well but was not a true burner in center field, where he played most as an amateur. He plays the game hard and has natural aptitude for the game. He will likely see some time at Bluefield or Vancouver next summer, given the Blue Jays history with recent high school draftees, and will absolutely be someone who could factor onto the list.

   So, Thomas is a long way away, but there's a lot to be optimistic about.  Interesting how Badler said he has plus speed, but not enough to play CF, according to Longenecker.

 Tommy G (Milwaukee): I really liked Matt Smoral coming out of H.S. seemed to put it together this year for the first time. What kind of ceiling does he have if he puts it all together?

Clint Longenecker: He did. It was a strong year and he got innings, which is what he needed most this year. He could be a No. 2 starter if everything clicks because of his fastball-slider combo (because he can get out RHH with his slider) and very high strikeout rates. Like most prospects, however, the odds of him reaching that ceiling are low, so lets revise expectations because his control is unlikely to ever be good enough to be a No. 2. He would have to exceed expectations to do throw that many strikes, but old baseball adages are that lefties and tall pitchers develop late. He is a rarity who fits both of those descriptors. The key for him next year will be getting innings, again, and seeing how he holds up in full season ball.

   This is something we've been saying about Smoral for over a year.  We can't really close the book on his ability to reach his ceiling just yet for the reasons Longenecker outlined, and because he missed his senior year of high school, and may still be a bit behind on the developmental curve relative to his peers.

  About Smoral and Ryan Borucki, who were also rotation-mates in Vancouver, Jansen told us:

     Smoral and Borucki are both outstanding pitchers, they both have dominant stuff and can both control their pitches. They always bring confidence and compete everyday, which is the biggest reason I love catching them

   And things would not be complete with a Rowdy Tellez update:

  Feng (New York): I was wondering what the feedbacks were on Rowdy Tellez and Josh Almonte. Was a little surprised that Tellez didn't make the top 20.

Clint Longenecker: Almonte was covered. Tellez was a strong consideration for the list. He made strides with his hitting approach this year and its tough not be be intrigued by a potential power bat. Scouts wanted to see Tellez hit for more power in games this year (.131 ISO) but his long-term power projection is still there. He is capable of putting on a show in BP. He controlled the zone well in the Appy League. It was a good developmental season for Tellez, whose body looked good because of the hard work he put in.

   That, to us, is a surprisingly lukewarm assessment of Tellez.  The Blue Jays saw more, apparently, and skipped him over Vancouver for a few weeks of play at Lansing, where he demonstrated some of that power, putting up a .949 OPS in 49 PA's.  His excruciatingly slow start (he went through a 0-26 dry spell - although was hitting the ball hard, according to reports - and was hitting .103/.191/.121 in early July) likely didn't help him. 



  The crowning jewel to these lower level reports for Blue Jays fans had to be the Northwest League list and chat, featuring 5 Vancouver Canadians, led by Frankie Barreto, who BA earlier had named Short Season Player of the Year. Barreto followed that up by being named the best NWL prospect. 

@Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for the chat, John. Is it a safe assumption that Schwarber would have topped this list had he qualified? In addition, what was the consensus opinion of his skillset during his limited time in Boise?
John Manuel: He hit 4 HR in 5 games. One league manager Brian talked to said he was “Mickey Mantle against us,” and another said, “You will live with the passed balls if he hits like I think he’ll hit.” Weighing that against Barreto would have been a fun exercise. I can see arguments for both of them.

  Barreto no doubt benefited from having Ryan McBroom hit behind him in the C's lineup.  McBroom was one of those middle round picks that may not have high ceilings, but are a perfect fit for the Northwest League:

Jon (Florida): Do you have any info on Ryan Mcbroom 1b with Vancouver? Is he a prospect for the bluejays?
John Manuel: McBroom definitely had his supporters. He has present power, with a pretty aggressive approach that allowed him to succeed in his debut. He hit some long home runs that impressed managers as well as fans. He needs to shorten his swing some, and his bats-right, throws-left profile is worth mentioning because it’s fairly rare. He might have had a chance to try third base is he threw righthanded. Some managers knocked him as a below-average defender at first. L.B. Dantzler put up similar numbers in the league last year and wasn’t able to follow up this year. McBroom will see if he’s up to the challenge.

  We all know the position change is coming for Barreto, but everything he has shown this season suggests the bat will play:

Brian (Denver): Which #1 league prospect has a higher ceiling as a SS, Northwest league Franklin Barretto or Appalachian league Ozhaino Albies?

John Manuel: Albies sounds super exciting and more likely to be a shortstop, but Barretto for me because of the bat. He may not be a shortstop long-term, but that dude can hit. Barretto’s defense gets knocked by the managers we talked to, who obviously value reliability and making the routine play, but we have good reports on Barretto’s infield actions. He has a shot to stay in the infield if not at shortstop, so I’d go with him. Albies is 5-foot-7 and we have mixed reports on just how much offensive upside he has in terms of how much he’ll impact the baseball. No such questions exist for Barretto. Both exciting players though.

Feng (New York): Hi, I was wondering if Barreto is a top 100 player? And if he is, would anyone else from this league make it on the top 100 list?

John Manuel: I think he probably is, and he’s likely the only person from this Top 20 to merit such consideration. The other possibility may be Miguel Castro, who has the big arm and athleticism but whose secondary stuff is probably too raw for top 100 right now. He could have been No. 2 or No. 3. I thought Barretto was a clear No. 1, but 2-3-4 were tough for me and Brian to rank. They could have gone in any order really.

  Max Pentecost also fell off of our radar a little bit due to his abbreviated season.  And it looks like BA didn't get the greatest read on him, either:

Zach (San Diego): Why did Max Pentecost rank #8 in the paper thin Northwest League Top 20? And if you can tell us what's a reasonable ceiling and/or comp for this kid?

John Manuel: Managers and scouts in the league saw Pentecost catch all of six games. We were asking them to weigh in essentially on a DH. So we dinged him a bit for that, ranking him behind two potential starting corner bats who are younger than him. Baez and Cordero are much riskier bets for sure, so we could have ranked him higher. I thought the top 12 guys were a fairly clear top 12; after that, there was not much differentiation.

 Baseball Prospectus is one of BA's biggest competitors, at least on the web side of the publishing business.  BP has produced a couple of print compilations of their writers' best work, including an essay by Jason Parks entitled, "From the Buscones to the Big Leagues,"  in Extra Innings. For anyone who follows prospects, this treatise on the pros and cons of the international market, as well as the ups and downs international players often go through when they play stateside is must reading.
   In this piece, Parks takes us through the highs and lows of a fictional Dominican pitching prospect named Jose, who pitches for the equally fictional Greens over his first five pro seasons, and makes for really entertaining and informative reading.  We sometimes forget that the transition to a new country, culture, climate, and language can be huge for some players, and they understandably can take a step backwards in their development, especially in their first full season.  Such seems to be the case for Tirado, who started the year at Lansing, but was sent back to Extended Spring Training after he had difficulties repeating his delivery and finding the strike zone.
Steve (Vancouver): How come Alberto Tirado didn't make the list?

John Manuel: He just did not throw enough strikes. Managers knocked both his command and lack of secondary stuff, but he was one of the livelier arms in the league and is just 19. More than likely 2014 will be a bump in the road for him because the arm can be electric. But he’s clearly behind Labourt and Castro, who throw more strikes, have big arms and are bigger-bodied guys.

   And we finish with a question that we ourselves had after our first glance at the list:

Roy (Indiana): Why is Labourt ranked ahead of Castro? From what I've seen of both Castro seems more a finished pitcher but with more or less equally high ceilings.

John Manuel: Lefty vs. a righty, but I had those guys flipped several times. Just having a lefthander who can dominate often older competition essentially with one pitch, plus the fact that Labourt’s arm is pretty clean and works easy enough to believe he’ll command the ball better down the line, gave him the edge. Both those guys are exciting for having easy gas as starting pitchers, which separated them from the pack. Looking at the league overall, pitching prospects were probably the weakest spot. I’m not sure how many future big league rotation members will come from the NWL. If someone were taking odds, I would take zero and let you have the field, and I’d like my chances. Castro and Labourt obviously were the exceptions, as the only pitchers in the top 10.

   Catcher Mike Reeves, who played at three levels this year (but in reverse) caught both this year, and he acknowledged on the excellent "Your Van C's" podcast with Greg Balloch and Charlie Caskey that while Castro is the better prospect at this point, Labourt was the C's best pitcher this year.  That he didn't follow Castro up the ladder may be due to his earlier struggles at Lansing, and the organization may have wanted to let him stay where he was having some success.