Blue Jays Name Prospects Headed to Australia

Canberra mascot Sarge in New York
Peter Bojkowski photo

   The Blue Jays have (finally) named the prospects that will be headed to the Australian Baseball League to suit up for the Canberra Cavalry when ABL play opens at the end of the month.

  Relievers Andrew Case, Jackson Lowery, Josh DeGraaf, outfielders DJ Davis and Josh Almonte, and Catcher Mike Reeves will take to the field for Canberra, who have had a successful partnership with the Blue Jays dating back several years.  The Blue Jays tend to use the down under experience to help a player make up for lost time due to injury or other issues, or to accelerate their development.  Anthony Alford was sent to Australia in 2015 after stepping away from college football, and the crash course he took in pitch recognition helped him break out as a prospect that year when he returned stateside.  "It's like they pitch you backward," Alford said of the mostly veteran-laden Aussie pitching staffs after struggling in the ABL with a heavy diet of breaking balls and fastballs just off the plate.  The experience helped him leap onto Baseball America's Top 100 list after the 2015 season. IF Jason Leblebijian was just another utility org guy in the system before hitting .324/.401/.578 for Canberra last season, and he didn't stop hitting when he returned home, slashing .294/.361/.436 between Dunedin and New Hampshire this season, establishing himself as a future MLB prospect. Cavalry Manger Michael Collins called the team's MVP the best SS the ABL has seen since Didi Gregorious (who played for Canberra in their first season):

After you get past Didi, Lebby's provided great defence, he's made a lot of great plays that people have almost come to expect as somewhat routine, which definitely are not [routine] ... plays that most people don't even get close to and he's almost making.

    RHP Case, a native of Saint John, NB, was signed as a free agent after a dominant performance at the inaugural Roberto Alomar T12 tournament in Toronto, a September showcase of the best amateur players in Canada, in 2013.  Case threw a 13-strikeout no-hitter in the semi-final, earning a contract with the Blue Jays.  He was suspended by MLB for 50 games in March of this year after failing to take a drug test.  Case claimed that he couldn't afford the flight from Alberta, where he was training, to Toronto for the test.  In truth, he may have mismanaged his time as well as his money.  Case, who was likely headed to Lansing, where he finished 2015, but had his season debut pushed back to July as a result of the suspension.  He posted an 0-2 record with a 2.28 ERA and 11 Saves in 22 appearances for Lansing, fanning 19 and helping to fortify the back end of the Lugnuts' bullpen.
  Case is not a power pitcher, topping out at 93 with his fastball.  He relies on command of his fastball to both sides of the plate, and a curveball that has nice shape and depth to it, which he can consistently throw for strikes.

    Righthander Lowery was another undrafted free agent signed out of Arkansas last season, where one of his teammates was 2016 4th rounder LHP  Zach Jackson.  Lowery went originally to Central Arkansas as an infielder, but transferred after a year to Meridian (MS) CC in order to pitch.  The following year, he realized a dream when he returned home to pitch with the Razorbacks.  Even though he became a long relief mainstay for Arkansas that year, his relative pitching inexperience and his size (6'0", 175) caused him to be overlooked in the draft in 2015.
  After a solid debut season in rookie ball last year, Jackson started the season with Vancouver, but was promoted to Lansing this year after saving 5 games in as many opportunities with the C's.  With Lansing, he pitched well in July and the first part of August, but struggled down the stretch, and it didn't sit well with him. "(I) didn't finish like I wanted, and let my team down a few times.  It will make me a better person this offseason."
   Lowery is a sinker/slider pitcher who, like Case, uses sequencing and location to get hitters out.  The contact he gives up tends to be of the ground ball variety.  He admitted that he was a little hesitant to accept travelling far from home, but sees the bigger picture in terms of his baseball career:

At first it got to me a little, not the distance but the time away, missing things like duck season and my family during the holidays. In order to accomplish the things that I want to accomplish in this game I have to sacrifice things and I'm willing to sacrifice almost anything in order to live out this dream. I have the support of my family so I'll do whatever it takes. It's an honor to be invited to this league and to have the support of the Blue Jays. I owe it all to them. They are the reason I am still playing and it is a privilege to represent the organization. I hope to continue to grow as a pitcher mentally and physically and continue to get stronger for next season.

     Righthy DeGraaf, a 2015 31st rounder out of NAIA Taylor University, is a finesse pitcher like his Lansing teammates Case and Lowery.  He did a little bit of everything for the Lugnuts this year, starting 7 games, pitching in long relief, and saving 3 games over 94 innings.  He complements his sinker with a slider and a changeup, his out pitch.
   One of the things that I have come to really enjoy about writing this blog is researching the background of players like DeGraaf - guys who were not highly touted, but have maximized their ability.  DeGraaf's high school coach spoke glowingly about him:

“We knew that Josh would go on to good things,” Kein said. “When he was playing for us, it was evident that he wasn’t as physically mature as he was going to get. He has done a lot of hard work. He is one of the best players I have ever coached. He played shortstop for three years on the varsity level. He was a great program kid and a great leader. He is one of the few players I have ever hadl that was a captain in both his junior and senior years. It was his intelligence that put him head and shoulders above others. He is a very smart player. He knew our system inside and out and the game in general. He was a great teacher to the younger kids.”

   Of all the prospects headed to the ABL, none have the pedigree of Davis - and few have underachieved to the extent he has.  A 2012 1st rounder from Mississippi HS ball, Davis was one of the youngest players in his draft class, and represented a roll of the dice for the Blue Jays amateur scouting staff.  His tools were without question, but The Magnolia State is more known for producing footballers than it is baseball players.
In five minor league seasons, Davis has posted a line of .239/.312/.352, which was inflated by a .282/.340/.391 2015 season with Lansing - his second at that level, after striking out a league-high 167 times the year before.
   Davis missed a month due to injury this year with Dunedin, and hit only .197 for the D-Jays in 97 games. He's headed to the ABL not only to make up for that lost time, but also perhaps to sharpen his pitch recognition skills - he's struck out almost 30% of the time over his minor league career.
   He's fallen off the prospect radar, but the tools are no doubt still there, and at 22, there is still time for Davis to turn his career around.

   Almonte was a 22nd rounder taken out of Long Island, NY high school in 2012, and the club's patience in his gradual development was rewarded with a breakout .307/.343/.398 season with short-season Bluefield in 2014.  He had trouble staying healthy with Lansing in 2015, and slipped below the Mendoza line between Lansing and Dunedin this year, hitting .199/.245/.275.  The tools are there, but the performance mostly has not.

  Reeves is from the hockey hotbed of Peterborough, ON, by way of Florida Gulf Coast University in the 2013 draft.  In four years in mostly a back up role, he has yet to play above High A.  Reeves will provide some depth for Canberra behind the plate.

  The Blue Jays, for their part, are pleased with the partnership they have with Canberra.  The Cavalry draw decent crowds, and are well supported by the community.  The level of competition is not elite, but it's reasonably good.  The league has a number of  AA-type pitchers and indy ball veterans who are hopeful of another shot at affiliated ball, and are putting their beset foot forward.  Despite being far from home, it's a good atmosphere for prospects who wouldn't have an opportunity to play elsewhere.  The Canberra organization is similarly pleased with the arrangement, according to Cavalry CEO Donn McMichael:

The Canberra Cavalry consider our relationship with The Blue Jays as THE most important of all that we have. The Blue Jays have always been very professional in our dealings with them and have always tried to support any gaps in our roster. They communicate well with us and we are aware early in compiling our roster who they intend on sending to us.

 The players that have played with us from the Jays have all been quality men and have been willing to assist us in our community engagement with visits to schools, paediatric wards at the hospital etc

   It's a unique experience for these players, most of whom have never been so far from home.  As Lowery suggested, it's a necessary step to help further their careers.  Alford has some words of advice for the prospects the Blue Jays have sent to Australia:

Just be a student of the game. Continue to sharpen their craft. Don't get caught up in the results, because the stats there don't determine who they are as a baseball player. Continue to learn, because you can never learn too much.

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   The elephant in the ABL, of course, is the decision by MLB to pull its funding this year after the original five-year commitment they made to Australian baseball ended.  Baseball is still a fringe sport in Australia, and the ABL is a crucial part of its development.  League rules mandate that at least 5 homegrown players must be in a team's lineup at all time.  When MLB stepped in to help revive the ABL in 2010, they agreed to finance the league for 75% of its expenses (most of which went to building playing facilities that were brought up to MLB standards), with the Australian Baseball Federation picking up the rest.
   The 2015-16 season did not get off to a rousing start when league CEO Peter Wermuth was let go on the eve of the season opener.  Fans were frustrated over the league's lack of growth.  This season, with the funding cut backs, the regular season was shortened from 55 to 40 games.
   The league still faces an uncertain future.  Some teams, like Canberra, have developed partnerships with the local business community, but other teams in the 6-team loop are struggling at the gate and on their spreadsheets. In some parks around the league, the empty seats and lack of advertising don't suggest a rosy financial picture.  MLB has looked at other emerging markets like China in which to grow the game and discover new talent.  Still, McMichael is optimistic about the league's future:

I am very confident that the ABL will continue to grow and help develop the talent that we are producing in Australia, and be a destination for both affiliated and independent ball players to play winter ball.

 This year is very much a year of consolidation for the ABL after the departure of MLB. It is fair to say that without the assistance of MLB over the past 6 years the ABL would not be in the strong position that it is and we are very grateful for all that they have done is assisting us.

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      Only Brisbane has secured sponsorship to stream all of its games on the ABL's website.  The other teams will stream one game per series.  The ABL does have a YouTube channel, where you can watch highlights and archived games.
   The time difference between Canberra and Toronto is 15 hours, so watching the Cavs will often mean getting up in the dark at about 4:30 am to watch.  

Canadian Juniors Face Off with Blue Jays

    A fuzzy-cheeked group of young Canadian ballplayers received what was likely the thrill of their young lives when they faced off against a lineup comprised largely of Canadian Blue Jays prospects at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium in Dunedin this week.
   As might be expected, the Canadian Junior National Team was no match for the older and more experienced Jays, losing 10-0, and managing only one baserunner on the day.
   Still, it was an excellent experience for the youngsters, and it was great to see several Canadian-raised Jays prospects get a chance to shine in front of a crowd of just over 3000.

   For the Junior Nats, the spotlight was on C Andrew Yerzy, widely expected to be the first Canadian high schooler taken in the June draft.  The 6'3"/210 Yerzy looks every bit the athletic, Matt Wieters-type of receiver.  He, like his teammates, was overmatched by major league offspeed pitches on the day, but his erratic pitching staff gave him ample opportunity to demonstrate his excellent pitch-blocking skills.  The Blue Jays showed Yerzy's arm little mercy, as leadoff hitter Dalton Pompey took off on the first pitch after leading the game off with a single.  Pompey had an excellent jump, as the Canadian Juniors' pitching staff had some trouble holding runners, and Yerzy rushed his throw, sailing it into centrefield as Pompey scampered for 3rd.  Yerzy did seem to have some concentration lapses with some passed balls, but in fairness to him, he was out there for a long time in the early innings.  Still, Yerzy demonstrates excellent athletcisicm, and the York Mills Collegiate student will be a far better player a year from now.

Andrew Yerzy

   RHP and fellow Torontonian Sam Turcotte actually struck out the side in the 8th, sandwiched around a walk, single, and line drive off the bat of D.J. Davis that the Canadian leftfielder made a gambling leap on and missed, allowing Davis to move all the way to 3rd.  Turcotte only topped 87 with his fastball,  but his size (6'5") gives his him great extension and late life on it, and it's easy to project more velo if he's drafted in June.  Turcotte was tutored in the art of the change up by former Jay Paul Quantrill, and he used it effectively.

Sam Turcotte

  On the Blue Jays side, a couple of players stood out.  RHP Tom Robson from Ladner BC, who missed much of 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery, hit 96 with his fastball, and mowed through the Juniors' lineup, throwing 3 perfect innings, striking out 3, and needing about 25 pitches to do so.  There's every chance this is your breakout Blue Jays prospect this year.

Tom Robson

   Toronto's own Connor Panas doubled, homered, and walked, hitting a pair of balls hard, and showing a great approach at the plate.  The 9th round pick in last year's draft is making a strong case for opening the year in full season ball with Lansing.  

Connor Panas

   Yet another Torontonian, Mattingly Romanin, son of the Jays' front office employee Mal Romanin, made up for a baserunning gaffe - Romanin came into the game as a pinch runner, but was doubled off of first when he took off for 2nd on a flyball.  In his first AB a few innings later, Romanin crushed a one-hop double off of the centrefield wall.

Mattingly Romanin

   Finally, crafty lefty Shane Dawson showed the Juniors a mix of speed changes, location, and pitch sequencing that they've likely never seen before, striking out 5 of the 6 hitters he faced over the final two innings.

Shane Dawson

DJ Davis

   I had originally planned to head a few blocks east to the Jays minor league complex to catch the afternoon inter-squad games that would be played there, but changed my mind at the last moment, and decided to take this game in.  It was a great opportunity to see the young Canadian players on both sides in action.
   

Anthony Alford: The Best is Yet to Come

@BaseballBetsy Photo

     18 months ago, the brain trust of the Blue Jays, led by then-GM Alex Anthopoulos, made the five-hour trek from Toronto to Lansing.
    The purpose of their trip was more than just to scout Toronto prospects toiling for the local entry in the Midwest League, the Low-A Lugnuts.  Anthopoulos and his cadre of senior execs had a contract extension offer in hand for Anthony Alford, who had just been promoted to Lansing a week earlier.

    Alford was one of the top high school baseball and football recruits in the nation.  Baseball America offered this scouting report in the spring of 2012:

Alford, a two-sport athlete, has committed to Southern Mississippi for both baseball and football. He's teammates in baseball with Garren Berry, son of USM baseball coach Scott Berry. And the Golden Eagles have a new football coach, Ellis Johnson, who has hired Alford's prep football coach onto his staff. In April Alford indicated he plans to go to college and play both sports. That's too bad, because many scouts considered Alford one of the class' elite athletes. Big and fast at 6 feet, 200 pounds, he was the Magnolia State's football player of the year as a quarterback and chose Southern Miss over such football powers as Louisiana State and Nebraska. He threw for more than 2,000 yards and ran for more than 1,700 as a senior, accounting for 44 touchdowns, but he's at least as intriguing on the diamond, where he's a 70 runner on the 20-80 scouting scale with power potential, too. He helped Petal High win back-to-back state 6-A championships before the team lost in the third round this spring, as Alford batted .483 with four homers.

   Scared off by the college commitment, Alford, who was considered a first-round pick in terms of talent, tumbled out of the top two rounds.  The Blue Jays, who had six picks in the first 100 thanks to letting free agents like Jose Molina, Jon Rauch, and Frank Francisco walk, decided to take a flyer with their seventh in Alford, joining 1st round pick and fellow Mississippian DJ Davis.

   Toronto was willing to wait on Alford, whose first pro summer was limited to 20 GCL plate appearances before heading off to begin his college football career.  His first season at Southern Miss was a bust, off and on the field.  He was one of four quarterbacks who stumbled their way to an 0-12 season, which cost Head Coach Elliott Johnson his job.  In October, Alford's mother was arrested after getting into an altercation with fans who were loudly berating her son's play during a one-sided loss.  This was not the first time mom had encountered trouble while watching her son play.  Alford's parents both had their issues with illegal drugs, and Anthony Alford Sr was arrested for selling Oxycodone in late 2013.
   After the dismal football season was over, Alford was involved in an on-campus incident, and was charged with assault, which was later reduced to conspiracy to possess a firearm, and hindering prosecution.  The incident, however, spelled the end of Alford's career with Southern Miss, and he left campus.  In the New Year, he signed on with Ole Miss, and attended spring practice, delaying his 2013 baseball season until June, and limiting his second pro campaign to 28 PAs.

    Throughout this, the Blue Jays were patient with Alford.  There certainly are two sides to every story, and the club was willing to believe that there were mitigating circumstances in the Southern Miss incident, and they were still committed to being patient with him.
     By 2014, however, that patience was beginning to wear thin.
    Alford had to sit out the 2013 college football season, according to NCAA transfer rules, and there was talk throughout baseball that his development was being limited by football, and the gap between Alford and his peers was growing.  Likely mindful of this, the Blue Jays assigned him to short-season Bluefield for a taste of "under the lights" play, and while the fans in Vancouver were full of anticipation of having Alford spend time at the next level with the Canadians, the Blue Jays skipped him to Lansing after only 9 Appy League games.
   His time in Michigan was brief, but Alford's speed and power combo had jaws dropping, posting a .320/.480/.480 line with 4 steals in only 5 games.  At the end of what proved to be his only week in Lansing, Alford and Anthopoulos sat down to discuss his extension.  Alford admitted that AA made it extremely hard to say no to a deal that likely involved more money than his $750K signing bonus, as well as an invitation to spring training the following year, but Alford did just that.  To top things off, he left Lansing shortly after to get married back home.
   The Blue Jays were likely less than impressed, but were not ready to cut ties with Alford just yet.


   It's hard for Canadians to understand the grasp football has on young men in places like Alabama, Texas, or Mississippi.  When you're the state player of the year, accolades from other sports are nice, but they're just distractions.  The expectation is that you will suit up for the Crimson Tide, or Longhorns, or Rebels, and do your hometown and state proud before setting off for a career in the NFL.  If you grow up without a lot, the path of riches probably seems to be paved with five yard markers and goalposts.  Such was the pressure on Alford to play football.  But somewhere along the line, he began to realize that his football dream was fading.  Maybe it was getting married, and recognizing that he will have to be a provider one day.  Perhaps it was reading the writing on the wall after being removed from Ole Miss' starting lineup after a failed season at QB with Southern. It may have been the forehead-smacking moment of revelation when Alford realized that he wanted to play baseball all along, and the Blue Jays were waving a good pile of cash in front of him to do so. Whatever it was, Alford shocked many when he gave up on football a month into the season (after saying that, "Even if I made $100 million from baseball, I'd still regret not giving football a shot,") and agreed to the Blue Jays offer.
   For the Blue Jays, the challenge was now how to make up for that lost development time.  He was able to squeeze in the last two weeks of Instructional League play, but Toronto was ready to accelerate Alford's timetable now that he had committed full time to baseball.  Even though they knew he likely would struggle, they shipped Alford and his new bride off to Australia, to play for Canberra of the ABL.  Along for the ride was Blue Jays minor league instructor Kenny Graham, who was Alford's GCL Manager, and is widely regarded as one of the best teachers in the organization. Graham served as Canberra's 3rd Base coach, but his main job was to tutor Alford in the fine points of baseball instruction he had missed.
   What ensued was a crash course in pitch recognition.  For many elite athletes, they are able to play the game up to a certain level on the strength of their physical talents alone.  Few can reach the top relying solely upon their tools, and in baseball, where the battle between pitcher and hitter is at the epicenter of the game, the ability to have a plan, and be able to make adjustments, becomes crucial.
   And Alford failed quite spectacularly at that down under.  By his own admission, he became too eager, and could not sit on the fastball as he had his whole baseball life up until that point.  "It's like they pitch you backwards," he said of the veteran Aussie League pitchers,who rarely threw Alford a hittable fastball, forcing him to chase pitcher's pitches.  Rather than being patient after facing adversity for the first time in his pro career, Alford tried harder, and saw more and more breaking pitches just off the plate as a result.  He finished the season with a line of .207/.327/.319, and struck out in over a quarter of his at bats.
   If there was a glimmer of hope in that time in the ABL, it was in the quality of the at bats Alford was getting.  He still was in too many pitcher's counts, and making weak contact as a result, but he was seeing more and more pitches per at bat as the season progressed.  His 12% walk rate was not great for a lead off hitter, but was a considerable improvement over his previous total, and was offering evidence of his improving ability to make that critical split-second decision about where the pitch was heading, and what kind of pitch it was as it came out of the pitcher's hand.  At the end of January of 2015, he came home upbeat, eager to put the lessons he learned when stateside play resumed a few months later.
  Alford had a few weeks of down time in February (about the longest stretch since he was drafted), and then late in the month headed to Florida with Davis.  Alford was a bit wide-eyed in his first big league camp, but learned a great deal from just watching players like Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista.  Sent back to Lansing to resume his pro career, Alford wasted little time demonstrating the benefits of his time spent in Australia.  Alford became adept at working the count, and hitting the ball to all fields.  While the strikeouts were still on the high side, he had become much more proficient at getting on base, and with his speed at the top of the lineup, he became quite a distraction to opposition pitching.
   Alford reached base in his first 27 games with the Lugnuts, and by the time he was promoted to High A Dunedin in mid-June, had only failed to reach base in a game four times, posting a line of .293/.418/.394  In the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, Alford didn't miss a beat, getting on base at a .380 clip, becoming the league's 8th-ranked process in just a half a season.
   But it wasn't just the numbers that were turning heads.  It was Alford's leadership skills and baseball IQ that wowed scouts.  It wasn't unexpected that his performance would progerss rapidly once he focussed solely on baseball, but it was all the other facets of his game that were just as impressive.  Which, to someone who has watched him and corresponded with him for a while, is not surprising.  Alford is a quality individual, and a natural born leader.  Talk to the people he grew up with, be it teammates or coaches, and they all rave about his maturity and leadership skills.  Given his upbringing, and the spotlight that has been on him since a very young age, and it would be understandable if Alford had a chip on his shoulder.  But he doesn't.  He is very engaging, polite, and accommodating.  The demands on his time will become greater as he nears the majors, but Alford still has time to tell a blogger who is making the trip to spring training next month that he looks forward to meeting him.  He was invited to be part of a mentoring group for kids in his hometown, and he explained his involvement in articulate and passionate terms.  

   Despite they hype and the progress he made last year, there is still room for growth in Alford's game. While he barrels up balls, he still doesn't have a lot of loft in his swing, so his power has yet to materialize. Despite the increase in walks, Alford still struck out a lot for a top of the order batter (23% of the time), and even though he was a high school quarterback, his arm grades as slightly below average.  Scouts feel that the power is coming, however, and a slight adjustment to his swing path might create more pop.  That K-BB differential came down drastically last year, and there's every indication that the trend will continue, and Alford's speeds and good reads help to compensate for whatever shortcomings his arm might possess.
He faces the biggest jump of his career this year with the jump to AA, where he will be facing pitchers more like the ones he saw in Australia - ones with command of their secondary pitches, and have a plan when they're on the mound.  He may begin the season at Dunedin, as the Bue Jays have shown a preference for starting a prospect off at the level they finished the previous season in the case of half-seasons.  Just the same, he will be at New Hampshire sooner rather than later, and may find himself in Buffalo by season's end.   The scouting media has certainly taken notice.  Alford was ranked the 44th top prospect by Baseball Prospectus, 42nd by MLB Pipeline, and 25th by BA.
   There is no need to rush Alford, and his minor league apprenticeship may not be quite complete, but there's everything in his physical tools and makeup to suggest that he's the real deal.  He profiles as that on-base machine/speed threat that's ideal in the leadoff spot.  Alford should be patrolling Centrefield at the Rogers Centre for years to come.

Toronto Blue Jays Next Ten: Top Prospects 11-20

 

Clinton Hollon
@BaseballBetsy photo

A year ago, putting my Top 10 Blue Jays prospects list was a difficult task because of the depth of the system. Putting together the Next 10 was a little bit easier - it became a repository for players who had impressed, but didn't quite make the Top 10 cut.
   This year's Next 10 list was not such an easy task.
   With the system emptied of 5 of the Top 10 prospects from my original list last fall (and 7 of the Top 20), it seems we are left with prospects whose development has stalled for one reason or another, or players who have shown promise in limited sample sizes.
   As I mentioned in the Top 10 article, the Blue Jays are not afraid to use prospects as currency to upgrade the big league roster; what we witnessed this summer is unprecedented in club history.  This fits with the "roll the dice" draft day philosophy the club has adopted in the Anthopoulos regime. The Blue Jay brain trust knew the risk they were taking by trading so many prospects, but they at the same time were banking on their ability to re-stock the system, having done this once before.

   What makes a prospect a Next 10 guy?  Usually some combination of lesser ceilings, injuries, and limited experience that makes projecting them as a top tier prospect difficult, at least at the moment. The one thing that I have learned above all else since I started following prospects a few years ago is that progress is seldom measured in a straight line.  Some prospects rocket through the system and on to the major leagues, but they are the exception and not the rule.  For some of the guys on the list, having the needle at least move forward more than it does the opposite direction is the key.  And sometimes you find nuggets:  both Sean Reid-Foley and Rowdy Tellez were near-bottom Next 10 prospects at this time last year, and climbed the ranks because the organization put them in spots where they could blossom. Their rise to the top list was not necessarily though default.  And I just didn't know enough about Devon Travis to rank him any higher, although I had a hunch he was a Top 10 player.



11.  Dwight Smith, Jr  OF
   Putting Smith in this spot is admittedly a bit of a reach, and is very reflective of his current prospect class.
   Smith's .265/.335/.376 line in his first year of AA ball was not especially impressive.  In fairness to him, he was dealing with a leg injury in May which limited his effectiveness for the next two months, and he was down for the last part of July.
  Smith emerged from his time on the shelf a different player, hitting .281/.374/.447 with 13 extra-base hits over the last month of the season, including a .333 average over the final 10 games of the season.
  Smith does not do one thing overwhelmingly well.  He's a decent hitter, but does not hit with enough power for a corner outfield spot.  He has good speed, but is not enough of a base stealer to hit at the top of the order.  Smith is a reasonably good outfielder, but doesn't have the instincts or arm to play anything other than Left Field.  The Blue Jays even experimented with him at 2nd Base in the Arizona Fall League last year, but abandoned that by spring training.
  Just the same, he has a bat that may play somewhere.  If he's healthy next year, he should be a different player at AAA.  Prior to this season, he had good offensive seasons at Lansing in 2013, and Dunedin in 2014, in leagues that are friendlier to pitchers than hitters. With Dalton Pompey and Anthony Alford well ahead of Smith at the moment, it's hard to see where he fits in the long term plans of the organization, but off-season deals could change that quickly.
  If he's not placed on the 40-man roster this fall, Smith will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft, and while it's not out of the realm of possibility for a team to take a chance on him, it seems unlikely.


12.  Justin Maese  RHP
   In keeping with the out on a limb theme, let's go with a premium athlete from an out of the way place.
   Here's what Baseball America said about Maese (say "My-AY-zee") prior to this year's draft:

Maese climbed this spring from off of draft boards into consideration for the top 10 rounds because scouts who saw him at his best saw an above-average fastball and a slider that flashed above-average. But scouts who stuck around for a few more starts saw the stuff often drop back from the 93-96 mph he showed at his best to 88-92 mph. Maese's feel for the breaking ball comes and goes and his delivery involves effort and is somewhat mechanical. But Maese has lots of arm speed and potential if he can smooth out the rough edges. He is committed to Texas Tech.

  And here's what Baseball Prospectus' Chris King was saying about him by late summer:

Justin Maese was fantastic today for the GCL #BlueJays. Locating all of his pitches. Worked the FB inside very well. CH coming along nicely

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 30, 2015

Very impressive outing from Justin Maese. Solid 3 pitch mix and strike throwing ability. Repeats well and attacks hitters #BlueJays

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 5, 2015

@Randip_23 nice looking arm. FB sits 91-93 with decent command. 2 seamer gets weak contact. SL 80-81. Just started throwing a CH last game

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 11, 2015

   El Paso, TX, is not exactly a baseball hot bed, but the Blue Jays were one of the teams that kept coming back to see the young righthander. Maese put up a record of 5-0, with a 1.01 ERA in 35 Gulf Coast innings.  In the GCL Jays semi-final, he delivered a brilliant six innings, giving up 4 hits and an earned run, while walking only 1 and striking out a career-high 10.
   It's hard to put a lot of stock in numbers posted in the GCL, but Maese's are encouraging.  The level of play in the league was above what it has been in years past.  Maese appears to be developing a four pitch arsenal - three are looking like they're right on track, and he's likely working on his slider at Instructs as you read this. Reports say his fastball touched 95 this year, and that number will likely bump up a notch or two as he matures.
   Maese obviously benefits from the lack of players above him, and we truly won't get a read on him until full-season ball, which may not be until 2017 (or late 2016) in his case.  He recently donated $6 000 to his family's church in his hometown, , which suggests good character.  Those concerns about his delivery seem to have abated, too.  This is an arm worth watching.


13.  Clinton Hollon RHP
   A cautionary tale: a young pitching prospect, a high draft choice, fails a test for a performance enhancing drug (likely an over-the-counter substance), and receives a 50-game suspension.  Even though he was given a list of approved substances, and was warned about the evils of unapproved ones -many of which have ingredient labels which can't be trusted - the prospect still went ahead and took the substance.  He expresses remorse, and claims he did not knowingly take the banned substance, but he has only himself to blame.
   Sound familiar?
  It should, because it happened to Marcus Stroman, and cost him the end of his 2012 season, and the first six weeks of 2013.  Stroman was found to have taken the stimulant methylhexaneamine, which is a short-acting stimulant slightly more powerful than a cup of coffee.  Stroman says he took the drug inadvertently, which is likely the case; methylhexaneamine is found in many popular supplements at drug stores, and chain nutritional stores like GNC.
   There is no word as to what substance Hollon has taken, except that is was an amphetamine, which fits into the stimulant category.  One of the benefits of following minor league players on Twitter is that they have the time and eagerness to answer your questions.  However, they can also duck them, unlike major league players who are the subject of media requests, if they choose to.  The normally quick to respond Hollon is reportedly devastated, but has been understandably reluctant to talk.
    And unlike Stroman, the timing of the suspension comes at an unfortunate time for Hollon.  Selected by the Jays in the 2013 draft out of Kentucky HS, he slipped to the 2nd round despite leading his school to the state championship because of concerns about his delivery, elbow, and makeup.  When the team failed to sign 1st round pick Phil Bickford, Hollon became the de facto top pick.
   Hollon made his debut in late 2013, and battled elbow soreness.  He tried to fight through it again in the spring of 2014, but tests confirmed a torn UCL, and he underwent Tommy John in May.
   New father Hollon returned to competition with Vancouver this June with a refined delivery, and a determined attitude.  He had a sizzling debut as the C's Opening Day starter, striking out 7 in 5 shutout innings, while allowing only a walk and a pair of hits.  Promoted to Lansing in August, he showed a continued flair for making an entrance.  In his MWL debut, he loaded the bases on a hit and two walks in the first inning, then retired the next 19 batters in a row.
   There is no doubt that Hollon has an electric arm.  He has a loose arm action, and has regained most of his former velo, which topped at 95 in his senior year of high school.  He throws a two-plane slider, curve, and change, and despite projections that his smaller size might mean an eventual destination in the bullpen, he shows an advanced feel for pitching that will keep him in a starting rotation until results determine otherwise.
   And about that attitude.  There are two sides to every story, and I've been told that it wasn't easy being small-town boy Clinton Hollon growing up, and that may have meant he developed a chip on his shoulder.  Did he take a banned substance because he thought he knew better?  Did he think the results were worth the risk?  Or, more likely, as in the case of Stroman, did he ingest something without knowing, despite warnings from the organization?
   Only Hollon knows the answer to that question, but the questions about his maturity and emotional makeup will continue in the wake of his suspension, which coupled with his surgery pushes his development back. The Blue Jays no doubt will continue to be patient with their young pitcher, who won't turn 21 until Christmas Eve.  He won't be eligible to pitch until mid-May.
   
14.  Dan Jansen C
   When the Blue Jays signed Russell Martin to a 5 year, $82 million contract in the off season, some thought it might be a sign that the club had little faith in their catching prospects.
   Nothing could be further from the truth.
   The contract they signed Martin to was the going rate and term for a catcher of his immense defensive skills.  And while many bemoaned Martin's lack of offence in August and early September, Manager John Gibbons wisely continued to write Martin's name in the lineup.  As the club heads to the post-season, Martin's signing is looking more and more like a shrewd investment.
  Of all defensive positions on the field, none are more important (outside of pitching itself) than Catcher, a spot with myriad responsibilities.
   Martin's signing has certainly helped to shore up both the Blue Jays defence and pitching staff.  It has also bought additional development time for Jansen and Max Pentecost.
   Jansen, a 16th round Wisconsin HS pick in 2013, has moved slowly through the system.  A knee injury caused a shutdown last year, and while with Lansing this year, a broken hand after being hit by a Dayton hitter's follow-through in May cost him almost three months.
   Despite that missed time, Jansen is emerging as a premium defender.  He moves well for his size (6'2", 230) behind the plate.  Jansen blocks balls in the dirt well, and is already an excellent framer of pitches.  He's been lauded for his ability to handle pitchers, which is a skill which may not directly show up in box scores, but is one of the most important tools in a Catcher's kit.
   Jansen struggled with the bat this year after a decent 2014 at Bluefield.  He struggled to stay above .200, but his bat was coming around in May before his injury.  Jansen showed some pop, with 5 HR in 183 ABs, and when Marcus Stroman came to Lansing for a rehab start, it was no coincidence that Jansen was behind the plate.
   That in and of itself speaks volumes about Jansen's future with the organization. He does not profile as an offensive catcher like Pentecost does, but does seem to be more of a defense-first catcher in the mold of Martin.


15.  DJ Davis OF
  Few players demonstrate the fact that development is a long, not necessarily straight-line process better than the young Mississippian.
   When the Blue Jays drafted Davis in the 1st round of the 2012 draft, he was both one of the youngest and rawest players in his class.  Davis' father Wayne played for years in the Toronto system in the mid-80s, never rising about High A, and like his son, was a speedy but contact-challenged outfielder.
   Davis was ranked the #3 prospect in the Gulf Coast League in his rookie year, and was the 8th ranked prospect in the Appalachian League the following year, despite less than sterling statistics.  Challenged with an assignment to full-season ball at Lansing last year, Davis' swing and miss tendencies were in full bloom, as he led the Midwest League in strikeouts with 167.  Despite his speed, he didn't show last year that he was turning into a threat on the basepaths, going 19-39 in stolen base attempts.  Davis has cut down on his long, loopy swing.
   Sent to Lansing to repeat Low A, Davis has made huge advances in his game.  He cut his K's down almost 30%, and stole 21 bases, and was caught only 10 times.  His overall line of .282/.340/.391 was a huge improvement over 2014's .213/.268/.316.  Not enough to put him back into Top 10 country, but encouraging nonetheless.
   In 2014, the left-handed hitting Davis hit more balls to left center, and ground balls to the right side:

mlbfarm.com

   This year, he's shown a tendency to pull the ball a bit more, while still using the whole field:

mlbfarm.com

   Still only 21, there is still time for Davis to develop.  He put more balls in play than he did last year, made harder contact, and with his plus speed, that's a positive step forward.
   Davis had a career day on June 8th, driving in a franchise record-tying 8 runs:

16.  Tom Robson RHP
   Like Maese, British Columbia born-and-raised Robson owes his ascent to the Next 10 somewhat to default.  He more likely would be in the next tier of prospects if July 31st had been a quiet day for Blue Jays fans.
  The 2011 4th rounder was making steady progress through the system before blowing out his elbow early in the 2014 season.  He came back this summer, and like most returning Tommy John patients, had re-captured his former velocity, but not his command.
   Robson hit 97 with his fastball this year, and sat between 93-95.  When he locates it, it has good sink, and he pounds the bottom of the strike zone, where ground balls are born, well.  Robson complements that fastball with a decent curve and change-up.  His arsenal revolves around his ability to command that fastball - which rarely happened this year.
  Still, there is a lot to like about Robson, and we won't begin to get a true reading on his potential until next year, when he likely will be a High A Dunedin.  If he maintains that velocity and regains his command, Robson profiles as a sleeper ground ball-inducing machine.
   Robson is also eligible for the Rule 5 this fall, but it's hard to see a team selecting him at this point.  However, if you want a sleeper prospect, he could be one.

17.  Roemon Fields OF
   If you don't know Fields' story by now....well, you just should.
   After high school, the Washington State product played Juco ball close to home, then transferred to tiny Bethany (KS), a NAIA school, where he ran track and played ball.
  Undrafted after he graduated, Fields worked in a mall selling hats, and then for the US Postal Service.  He had all but given up on his MLB dreams, when his former Juco coach invited him to play for a team he had assembled at an international tournament in Prince George, BC, and caught the eye of Jays scout Matt Bishoff, who signed the fleet Fields to a contract off of his play there.
   Fields made his pro debut with Vancouver in 2014, and broke the Northwest League for stolen bases.  He skipped Lansing for Dunedin this year, and held his own before being promoted to New Hampshire (with a brief trial in Buffalo) to end the year.  He stole 46 bases (in 60 attempts), and hit .262/.316/.321 at three levels.  Here's a sample of his speed from spring training:

   Pretty heady stuff for a guy who really didn't get a sniff from pro scouts in his senior year.  Fields is proof that if you cast your scouting net far and wide, you'll catch the odd potential keeper.
   Fields is possibly the fastest player in the organization, with the possible exception of Anthony Alford.  He is also more of a slap hitter (career .656 OPS), and profiles as a fourth outfielder.
   At the same time, Fields did not play year round ball while he was in college like so many of his peers did, so he still may be catching up on lost development time.  Fields, who turns 25 in November, is what he is. He still could make better contact and put more balls in play, because he has elite (70 grade) speed that puts a lot of pressure on defenders.  It was mildly surprising that he didn't receive an elevation to the 40-man and a place on the Blue Jays September roster to see some pinch-running duty down the stretch.  At the same time, there wasn't much room on that 40-man roster, and with Dalton Pompey already there, perhaps the time wasn't quite right for Fields.  He has been assigned to the Arizona Fall League, where we'll get a much better read on his future prospects against elite competition.


18.  Mitch Nay 3B
   There are few prospects who demonstrate the lengthy process development often entails than Nay.
In 2012, he was named Arizona's High School Player of the Year, and was considered one of the best prep power bats heading into the draft.
  A broken foot suffered prior to draft day, and a commitment to Arizona State caused his stock to slip, and the Blue Jays, who were without a first round pick, snapped him up in the supplemental round, 58th overall.
Nay's pro debut was delayed until 2013, and it was an impressive one, as he and Matt Dean formed a potent heart-of-the-order combination at Bluefield.  Nay capped off that rookie season with a promotion to Vancouver for the NWL playoffs, where he was named Playoff MVP as he led the C's to the league crown.
  Nay was challenged with an assignment to Lansing for 2014, and while his power had yet to make itself known, he led the pitcher-friendly Midwest League in Doubles, and hit a solid .285/.342/.389.  The thought was that all those doubles would turn into home runs as he matured.
Promoted to Dunedin to start 2015, the prospecting community began to sour on Nay as he struggled mightily through the first half of the season.  Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus, in particular, was very down on him:

The overall package is underwhelming, however, without a true carrying tool. With only average bat speed, he can get beat inside with average velocity. He needs to get his hands extended in order to drive the ball with any authority. He’s strong, but his up-the-middle approach leads to more doubles than home run production. Most importantly, he struggles to recognize spin. On defense, he’s already limited by his range, with a poor first step and below-average foot speed. He’ll never be better than an average defender at third base, and even that would take some natural refinement. He’s currently below average.

In order to end up with any kind of regular playing time, he’ll have to learn to drive the ball more consistently. Without the ability to catch up to premium velocity, his only way to do that will be on mistakes with breaking balls.

  The problem with making such an evaluation on a still relatively young player is that they are nowhere near a finished product in the low minors, and it turns out that Nay was asked by the organization to alter his swing this year in order to pull the ball more, and accelerate that power development. Nay hit just .218/.287/.333 in the first half, as he adjusted to the new approach.  He hit a much more promising .280/.327/.382 in the second half, before being shut down after being hit by a pitch in August.
   The power still didn't show up, as Nay hit 5 round trippers in the first half, and none in the second.  Again, the Florida State League is another pitcher's haven, and if you base Nay's season on his numbers alone, you're doing him a disservice.  Next year, however is a bit of a make-or-break for him, likely at New Hampshire.

19.  Andy Burns UT
   Burns is very much a forgotten man as far as prospects are concerned, but I think he's still very much in the picture.
  Burns sat out his final year of college after transferring, and he fell to the Blue Jays in the 11th round of the 2011 draft.  He has progressed steadily through the system, and garnered some attention with a line of .327/.383/.524 in half a season at Dunedin in 2013.
   After a so-so year at the plate with New Hampshire in 2014, Burns busted out again this year at Buffalo, hitting .291/.350/.373.
  Burns does not project as an everyday player, but he does profile as a potential super utility player.  His normal position is short stop, but with Jonathan Diaz and Munenori Kawasaki on Buffalo's roster for most of the season, Burns saw duty at short (8 games), 2nd (46), 3rd (50), 1st (13) and the outfield (8 games split between left and right).  Burns is not currently on the 40-man roster, and while 2104 was his first year of Rule 5 eligibility, there's a slight chance he could be snapped up this year if he's not promoted.
  In this day and age of 7 and 8 man bullpens, a player who can play a multitude of positions is a truly valuable commodity.  And while he's not a speed merchant, Burns runs the bases well, adding to his versatility.  I do not see Burns as an everyday player, and I'm not sure I even see him as a Ben Zobrist type. I do see him as having an MLB future with his ability to fill a lot of roles, and handle the bat well.  He's worth including in the prospect picture.

20.  Jose Espada RHP
   The Blue Jays took right handed pitchers with 4 of their first 5 picks last June, with Espada being the last.
   The Puerto Rican HS grade does not have that long, lean build that the Blue Jays covet in a pitcher, but he does have the athleticism, upside, and power arm that they love.
  Espada showed good command in his first pro season in the GCL, striking out 31 in 34 IP, while allowing only 8 walks.  His fastball sits at 89-91, and touched 93 - there's little doubt that there's room for projection there.  He showed a very sharp front-door breaking ball, and impressive feel for his change.
  Espada is said to be very polished for a high school pitcher, and the GCL didn't present much of a challenge for him.  Like Maese, he didn't make the cut for the Top 20 GCL prospects list because of that deep crop of players ahead of him.  He may not start next year in full season ball, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up there.  My fellow prospect hunters in Vancouver will likely get to see a fair amount of him next year, as I expect him to skip Bluefield.


   After July 31st, the cupboard may not be bare, but it's certainly time to consider a trip to the grocery store to re-stock.  This organization has proven adept at rebuilding the system before, and they're not afraid to do it again.  There is some depth in short season ball, but players at that level are so far away that they don't have a lot of value.
   In my next post, I'll take a look at five players who just missed the Top 20.

For reference purposes, here's last year's Next 10:

11.  Travis
12.  Sean Nolin
13.  Pentecost
14.  Nay
15.  Matt Smoral
16.  Smith
17.  Tellez
18.  Jairo Labourt
19.  Reid-Foley
20.  Ryan Borucki

1

Clutchlings Notebook - Week Three

  All four Blue Jays minor league affiliates are well underway with their seasons, so I thought I would narrow my focus a bit and take a look at some players worth keeping an eye on in the system - players who, as you move down the system, may not make an appearance and/or an impact for the big league club this year, but have a chance to get there at some point.

Buffalo
   The Bisons are a veteran team, but are well worth the trip down the QEW to watch, sitting atop the International League north standings.
  At the moment, there are not a lot of players who could reasonably be called prospects - the Bisons roster is filled more with injury insurance guys.
   Of the players who fit that prospect category, C A.J. Jimenez and IF Andy Burns would be the most worth watching.  The oft-injured Jimenez had his season debut delayed by yet another stint on the DL, but after starting at New Hampshire, he's now in Buffalo.  I watched him catch Matt Boyd's start on April 20th, and there's so much to like about him as a receiver.  Jimenez is quick and athletic, and blocks balls in the dirt well.  He's already a good framer of pitches, and helped Boyd immensely on a night when he was fighting his command with his breaking pitches a bit.  The question mark, in addition to his ability to stay healthy, is his bat.  If not for his injury, however, he may have gotten the call over Josh Thole when Dioner Navarro went on the DL. Jimenez will make a fine defense-first catcher, but his bat may limit the extent of his role on a big league club one day.
   Burns is a 3B/SS who was being groomed as a super utility player, but has played mostly 3rd and 2nd this year.  He started with New Hampshire, but was promoted to the Bisons and went 4-4 in his first game.  Burns got off to a slow start at AA last year, and I had originally thought he might be a September call up at the outset of the 2014 season.  He's another one of those overlooked guys the Blue Jays have loved to draft over the last half decade.  He had to sit out his senior NCAA season after transferring from Kentucky to Arizona, but the Jays didn't forget about him, and took him in the 11th round in 2011.
   At 27, Scott Copeland can no longer be considered a prospect, but since last August, he's placed himself on the radar.  As I write this, he went 5 strong innings for Buffalo tonight, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits, walking 3 and striking out 1 - and this has been one of his poorer outings, the first one where he hasn't at least pitched into the 6th.  Copeland, of course, is not a strikeout per inning guy.  He averages over 2.5 groundouts for every fly ball out.  He just doesn't give up a lot of hard contact:

   Of course, the only way we'll likely see Copeland is if there is an injury situation, and/or a complete meltdown of the major league rotation.  And vets like Randy Wolf and maybe Andrew Albers, Jeff Francis, or possibly even Felix Doubront might get the call before him.  At the same time, what Copeland has done since arriving in Buffalo late last season is get hitters out, posting a 1.80 ERA in 7 starts over the last two seasons, and allowing just 27 hits in 45 innings.

New Hampshire
   Boyd is the obvious pick here, but he's not the only one.  I've written before that he had a better April and May than Daniel Norris or Kendall Graveman last year, before running into some injury issues that weren't enough to sideline him, but limited his effectiveness over the last half of the year.
  I have a more detailed post coming up later this week about him, but Boyd is well worth watching.  Like Copeland, he's not necessarily a power arm, although he had added velo this year.  He relies more on command and his feel for pitching.  At the same time, Boyd's 30 K's are just 3 off the minor league lead.  It's best to see him soon if you're thinking of making a trip east to see him, because he may be in Buffalo by June if he continues to pitch as well as he has.
   Dwight Smith Jr is making quite a name for himself as a hitter.  The Blue Jays tried experimenting with him at 2nd in the Arizona Fall League and in spring training, because his bat doesn't really have the power to profile as a corner outfielder.  He put up solid numbers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and has continued to rake in AA, hitting .324/.361/.485.  Smith has hit in the 2nd spot in New Hampshire's order, and has benefitted immensely from having vets Jake Fox and KC Hobson behind him the lineup.  If speedster Jon Berti can get on base more frequently ahead of Smith in the order, he'll see even more fastballs.  With Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar ahead of him, there's no spot in the majors for Smith at the moment, but he should join Boyd in Buffalo in a few weeks.

Dunedin
   The D-Jays have a young lineup, and have had trouble showing much consistency so far.
Dawel Lugo and Mitch Nay have potential impact bats, but have struggled.  Roemon Fields may be the fastest player in the organization, but he has had trouble getting on base.
    LHP Jairo Labourt has alternated good outings with not-so-good ones so far this year.  Walks have been his nemesis as they were in his abbreviated stint in the Midwest League last year.  He's been missing bats and the strike zone at almost the same rate.  RHP Alberto Tirado has been sent to the bullpen in an attempt to harness his electric stuff, and for the most part, it's been working.  There's just not a lot of projection for a bullpen guy in High A.
   Dunedin is very much a work in progress.  Almost all of the info I get on them is second hand, of course, because there's no milb.tv coverage of the Florida State League, and the D-Jays play in front of a couple thousand empy seats every night.

Lansing
   This is the must-see team in the organization, and thanks to milb.tv, you can see them a fair amount, although not at home.
   Any discussion about this team now starts with Anthony Alford, the two sport star who is as fabulous a story as he is an athlete.  I've written a few thousand words about him, so please go back through my archives and have a look.
   The Reader's Digest Alford story:  A Mississippi all-state baseball and football star, small-town Alford was one of the nation's top football recruits in 2012, and the Blue Jays took him with their 3rd round pick, even though he had a scholarship to Southern Miss in hand.  He was labelled a 3rd rounder with first round talent - a story making the rounds recently is that the Blue Jays area scout for MS gave him the highest grade of any prospect in that year's draft class.
   Alford was involved in a campus incident in which a gun was pulled (not by him) after his freshman year, and he had his scholarship lifted.  Alford then enrolled at Ole Miss, and had to sit out a year due to transfer rules. He continued to report to the Blue Jays minor league complex in Florida after spring football, but his seasons were always cut short by the need to head back to campus in August, meaning that he had amassed just over 100 PAs over his first three minor league seasons.
   The Blue Jays offered Alford much of Front Street to give up football this past summer, but he declined.
Suddenly, in late September, he left Ole Miss, and announced his intention to give up his gridiron dreams.  I talked to him via Twitter about it, and while he didn't come right out and say it, Alford suggested that he initially went with football because he felt pressured to do so.  Football is King in Mississippi, and it's completely understandable that a young, impressionable young man would feel an obligation to pursue it if he was blessed with such talent.  Somehow, someone said something this fall that lifted the world off of his shoulders, and it convinced him that it was okay for him to make the switch to his first love of baseball, and he reported to Florida for Instructional League play.
   In order to get him some more ABs, the Blue Jays sent him to play in the Australian Baseball League this winter.  The veteran ABL pitchers with their breaking pitches often tied Alford up in knots, and he admitted that he got into a lot of unfavourable hitters' counts.  The experience seems to have paid off however, as had the time he spent with the Blue Jays in spring training (he said Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson made the biggest impression on him).  He spent some time this month on Lansing's DL with a knee issue, but he's been bashing since his return this past week, hitting .364/.417/.500 in 5 games with the Lugs.  The highlight of his week had to be the night he scored on a sacrifice fly - from 2nd base.
   I asked Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler about what has impressed him the most about Alford, and he said his AB's have been a study in patience, often working into 2-2 or 3-2 counts.  Unlike in Australia, when he widened his strike zone considerably with two strikes,  Goldberg-Strassler says that Alford looks like a very comfortable two-strike hitter.  And Alford's also not trying to pull the ball - he's hitting the ball up the middle and to right field.  All of these are signs of rapidly improving pitch recognition.
   I don't want to get ahead of myself, but Alford could be the best position player in the organization very soon.
    But Alford is not the only prospect on display in the Michigan State Capital. Among the others:

-1B Rowdy Tellez -  a power-hitting first baseman who has transformed his formerly chunky body.  The Midwest League is a tough home runs hitter's loop because of its parks with high outfield walls and the April and May winds that always seem to be knocking fly balls down, but I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of power numbers Tellez produces for Lansing.

-1B/DH/OF Ryan McBroom  The 15th round pick from last year's draft has mostly hit behind Tellez in the Lugnuts order, and pretty much all he has done is hit.  The power hasn't shown up just yet, but he's posted an impressive .323/.408/.418 line.

-OF DJ Davis  Davis is repeating Low A after failing to make much contact last year, striking out in 32% of his PAs.  And his vaunted speed didn't translate into a high stolen base total, as he was thrown out more times (20) than he wasn't (19).  Davis is making betting contact so far this season, and is hitting .302/.397/.444.

-C Danny Jansen When he's healthy and finally activated, Max Pentecost may ascend to the majors faster, but Jansen may well prove to be the Blue Jays catcher of the future.  He's had a slow start at the plate, but his bat has started to come around, and word has spread around the MWL that Jansen is tough to run on.

-RHP Chase De Jong  De Jong is repeating Lansing as well, and with the exception of his last start, appears to be on track for a mid-season promotion to Dunedin.  De Jong struck out 9 in his first start, but he's more of a finesse pitcher who relies on finesse and command. Which he didn't have in his most recent outing, and gave up a pair of homers.

-RHP Sean Reid-Foley The 2014 2nd round steal is perhaps the highest-ceiling member of Lansing's rotation.  On a shorter pitch count leash than his teammates at this point, Reid-Foley has struck out 13 in only 7 innings over 3 starts.

-SS Richard Urena Jose Reyes' potential successor, the 19 year old has held his own at the plate so far, hitting .241/.274/.345, and playing stellar defence.  Some have labelled his glove major league ready.  A switch hitter, Urena's bat from the right side has always been a concern, and he's struggled against lefties so far.

-LHP Shane Dawson The soft-tossing Drayton Valley, AB (as far as I can tell, only two minor leaguers come from a more northerly location than Dawson), southpaw relies on deception to get hitters out, which he's been doing at a healthy clip.  Shoulder injuries have sidelined Dawson each of the past two years, but he is fully recovered, and should move up to Dunedin at some point this season.  MWL hitters are currently hitting a paltry .113 against him.

  Other names due to soon get an assignment to a full-season team:  2015 1st rounder Jeff Hoffman, almost a year removed from Tommy John surgery; 2014 2nd rounder Clinton Hollon, and possible lefty Matt Smoral, who I thought was a lock for Lansing, but struggled this spring and was kept behind for extended spring training.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week 2

   Here's a wrap of the week that was in the Toronto Blue Jays minor league system:

Buffalo (6-1)
   The week got off to a bizarre start for the Bisons when their Monday game with Pawtucket that was suspended by rain and moved to Tuesday to completed as part of a doubleheader.  The second game of that set, in turn, was postponed by a power failure.
   Buffalo lost that suspended game, but then ran off six wins in a row, culminating with a sweep of Lehigh Valley when the Bisons went into the botton of the 9th trailing 4-1,  to close their home stand.
   Jeff Francis pitched five innings of shut out ball in the first game of the Wednesday twin bill, and fellow Canadian Andrew Albers responded with six frames of runless ball in the night cap.  Scott Copeland followed that up with a sparkling 7 innings the next day, allowing only one run on three hits.  Randy Wolf and Chad Jenkins each had strong starts over the weekend.
   With Colt Hynes needing some rest, he was optioned to Buffalo, and Francis was recalled to take his place.  Francis' great week continued with four innings of scoreless relief for the Blue Jays on Sunday.
  Andy Burns was promoted from New Hampshire, and was a scintillating 4-4 in his International League debut on Friday.

New Hampshire (1-6)
   The Fisher Cats got off to a good start by beating Reading to start the week, but then promptly lost their next six games in a row.
   Matt Boyd struck out 9 batters over 5 innings for the second straight start.  Scoring runs has become a bit of a challenge for New Hampshire.  Leadoff hitter Jon Berti was supposed to be a table setter, but has struggled at the plate.  Dwight Smith Jr has been hitting, on the other hand, and closed the week at .317.  A.J. Jimenez was activated from the disabled list to the Fisher Cats, and was in the lineup this weekend.

Dunedin (3-4)
   The D-Jays had a win one/lose one pattern for the week.
Jairo Labourt couldn't get out of the first inning in his start on Monday, but redeemed himself with 8Ks in 4 innings on Saturday.
  Scoring runs has been an issue for Dunedin as well, having been shut out in back to back games against Bradenton.

Lansing (5-2)
  It was a great week for the Lugnuts, who we were able to see a fair amount of during their series with Great Lakes, thanks to milb.tv.
   Lansing had a six game winning streak snapped during that series, the day after winning a 16-inning marathon against the Loons.  Great Lakes, wanting to save what was left of their bullpen, sent a position player in to pitch the top of the 16th, and he served up a two run homer to Rowdy Tellez.
   Conner Greene and Sean Reid-Foley made their full season debuts this week, and pitched well.  Greene struck out 5 in as many innings while surrendering only one run, while Reid-Foley K'd 6 in 3 scoreless innings in his debut.  Greene is piggybacking with Alonzo Gonzalez for the first part of the season, while Reid-Foley is working in tandem with Justin Shafer.
   Starlyn Suriel and Shane Dawson were dominant in their piggyback start in the extra inning game.  Suriel is not a big guy, and doesn't overpower hitters, but relies on movement and location.  Dawson, who missed much of last year, seems to be getting his velocity going, as he hit 92 in his appearance.
   Dan Jansen has shown fine receiving skills, but has struggled at the plate.  He made his first MWL hit a memorable one, though, hitting one over the left field wall at Great Lakes.
   Much has been made of DJ Davis.  The first round pick from 2012 is repeating Low A, and I was concerned about his pitch selection in the at bats I saw him have this week.  He seems to take pitches in the zone, and swing at a lot of pitches outside of the zone.  At the same time, he reached base in the Lugs first 10 games.  In the outfield, his speed allows him to cover a great deal of ground, and he hauled in several drives against Great Lakes that at first looked like they were headed for extra bases.  Davis still needs to cut down on the Ks (15 in his first 45 PAs), but I still want to give him a bit more time.  Davis was one of the youngest players taken in his draft year, and that and the fact that he played his HS ball in Mississippi means that his developmental curve may be longer than most.


Notes
  I asked Lugnuts broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler when he thinks Anthony Alford will return from injury, and he thinks the speedy outfielder will be back by the end of the month.
  I also was in contact with Canadian pitcher Jordan Romano, who was reportedly hitting 95 on the gun earlier in spring training, before suffering a torn UCL.  Romano had Tommy John surgery performed by Dr James Andrew on March 30th, and while he's still wearing a brace, he has already started rehab.
  Jeff Hoffman is slowly building up his innings as he approaches the first anniversary of his Tommy John surgery.  He threw two innings in an intrasquad game at extended spring training, hitting 97 on the gun.  If all continues to go well, Hoffman should pitch in a game that counts, likely at Lansing or Dunedin, by mid-May.

Spring Training Prospect Update #3

   The trickle of news coming out of spring training is turning into an April torrent.
With the Blue Jays making what's becoming their annual end-of-spring-training trip to Montreal for a pair of final exhibition games, the season opener is fast approaching.  We should know what the full season minor league rosters should look like by the end of the weekend.

Here's what's in the news:

2014 first round pick Jeff Hoffman has been making steady progress in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and threw in his first spring training game yesterday.  I think it went ok:

On his road back from TJ surgery, #BlueJays prospect Jeff Hoffman threw a 1-2-3 inning today in ST and worked at 95-98 mph. Wow
— Frankie Piliere (@FPiliereD1) April 1, 2015

   Before we get too excited, Hoffman is still at least a month away from when-it-counts game action.  And if there's one thing we've learned about the recovery, it's that most players take closer to 18 months to fully recover their velocity and command, Roberto Osuna being a case in point.  Still, it was welcome news.

   If you don't follow our Left Coast friend Charlie Caskey (@CharlieCaskey) on Twitter, you should.  Caskey follows the Vancouver Canadians, and blogs about them for the Vancouver Sun.  Charlie also likes his barley and hops beverages, and is a dedicated dad, so he's all right in my books.
   Caskey has a source who let him in on some developments with several Blue Jays minor leaguers, and he shared some of that information in a pair of posts today.  The first involves news about the possible makeup of Lansing's pitching staff this year.  It's always interesting to see who the club sends to Lansing, the lowest of the full season teams in the organization.  Some pitchers move up the ladder from the GCL to the Appy League to the NWL one step at a time before hitting full season play in the Midwest League, while others skip one or more of those rungs and are fast-tracked to Lansing.
   And the news about Lansing isn't good.  Ryan Borucki, who made a comeback from TJ last year and pitched well at Bluefield and Vancouver, has been shut down with a sore elbow.  Maybe it's just the regular spring soreness, but it takes on added urgency when a player is throwing with a replacement ligament.  Not to get ahead of ourselves, but the success rate for a second Tommy John is considerably less than that of the first. This could be precautionary, of course, but he likely will be staying in Florida next week.
  Fellow southpaw Matt Smoral followed the same route as Borucki last year, and word from Caskey is that he's not had the best of springs, and he may be on the bubble.  It could just be a hiccup, or it could be he needs time in Extended Spring Training.  The Blue Jays 2nd round pick in 2012 has been brought along very slowly, but made excellent progress last year.
   Finally, yet another lefty, Jairo Labourt, seems to be having an electric spring, and may find himself in Dunedin next week.  Labourt was challenged with an assignment to Lansing last year, but had trouble with his command, and was sent back to Extended.  Sent to Vancouver to join the C's for short season play, he was one of the NWL's top prospects, and restored much luster to his reputation.
  As well, we had learned earlier in the month that Alberto Tirado will remain in the bullpen this year, and if I had to guess, he'll start with Dunedin.  Tirado struggled with the cool Midwest weather last year, and while all Blue Jays prospects raised in warm weather climates have to deal with it eventually, if he's been pitching as well as we hear he has, High A will be the better placement for him.
   Last year's 2nd rounder, Sean Reid-Foley, appears to be poised to skip both Bluefield and Vancouver for Lansing.  He's definitely on the fast track.
   On the position player side, Caskey reports that Lansing's outfield may resemble a track team, with speedsters Roemon Fields, Anthony Alford, and DJ Davis possibly getting assignments there.
   Davis, the club's first round pick in 2012, was a disappointment last year at Lansing, but was one of the youngest players in the league, and is still learning the game.  I've written extensively about Alford, the two-sport star who suddenly gave up on college football last September to focus on baseball, and while he proved during his time in Australia this winter and with the big club earlier this month that he still is raw, his ceiling is quite high.  Then there's Fields, who two springs ago was out of baseball, and working for the US Postal Service. Here he is, hitting a routine stand-up triple against the Orioles:

   According to Caskey, a Florida-based scout puts Alford ahead of Davis in terms of development.  At the same time, Davis played some of his best baseball last summer in the brief time fellow Mississippian Alford was in the lineup.  Pairing them up at least to start the season could be beneficial for both, although it's hard to see Alford spending the whole season in Lansing.  Blue Jays fans may be just as excited about Alford next spring as they have been about Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro this spring.  As for Fields, there is talk that he could start at Lansing or Dunedin.  Veteran superscout Mel Didier said that he is the best defensive outfielder in the organization, major and minor leagues.

    Caskey also reports that Catchers AJ Jimenez and Derrick Chung are out with injuries - no word on the extent with the oft-injured Jimenez, and Chung's sounds like an oblique, which isn't serious, but can be if it's not treated properly.

   Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus had a few observations about Blue Jays prospects at Spring Training today.
   About Dwight Smith, who has been playing some second base this spring, he offers:

 ..an intriguing player last year in the FSL, but one likely to end up as a fourth outfielder thanks to his “tweener” profile (not enough power for a corner, not enough defense for center). Perhaps in an attempt to remedy that, he has added a rather extreme leg kick in his stance. It might cost him some contact, but if it moves his power up a tick on the scale it could be enough to make him an everyday player. Stay tuned.

    On Emilio Guerrero, who the Jays have been attempting to convert to an outfielder, Moore observed:

 The overall product doesn’t add up to the sum of the parts for Emilio Guerrero (Blue Jays), who continues to look the part but baffles scouts with below-average baseball IQ and poor execution at the plate. The frame, at 6-4 and thin, is ideal, and he handles it well enough to handle shortstop for the time being, but the lack of approach at the plate continues to hold him back.  

 

Speaking of Osuna and Castro, I won't be surprised to find one of them back in the minors before the end of April, and if I had to wager, it would be Osuna.  Both were almost unhittable earlier in the month, but now that rosters have been pared and hitters are getting their timing back, both have given up some contact and been touched for some runs in their last few outings.  Castro may be groomed to be a multiple innings guy, but Osuna needs to pitch, and if he has a few rocky outings, I could see him making his way back, probably to AA, where he should be stretched out as a starter again.

   Spring Training is a time of renewal, and for some players, it's a chance at redemption - another shot at the big time.  At the same time, we tend to forget that for every player who makes it to the majors, there are dozens who don't, and the end of March for some can be the-writing-on-the-wall time.  Such was the case for righthander Ben White, who announced his retirement on Twitter:

Thanks everyone who supported me the past 4 years. Today I retired from the Toronto Blue Jays & the game of baseball. pic.twitter.com/T8w80vyXp6
— Ben White (@Bennyhana42) April 1, 2015

   White hails from Parksburg, PA, about an hour outside of Philadelphia, and played college ball at Temple.  White signed with the Blue Jays as an undrafted free agent following his senior year in 2011, and had advanced from Vancouver to New Hampshire, where he started a pair of games last year.  White has been a solid, if unspectacular performer for the team, pitching to contact.  If I had to speculate, there may not have been room for him in New Hampshire's rotation this year, with John Anderson converted to starting, and Taylor Cole, Matt Boyd, Casey Lawrence, and Jayson Aquino (acquired before spring training for reliever Tyler Ybarra) ahead of him, White may have felt at 26 that it was time to move on with this life.  He exited from the game in a classy manner.


One last note:
  Caskey and I compared notes about pitchers in minor league camp who have impressed, and we had one in common:  lefty Matt Boyd, who Caskey's source said has been "throwing fuel" this month.
  Boyd is another player I've written a fair amount about, and have gotten to know a little bit through our interactions on Twitter.  There's no cheering in the press box, but since I'm not a beat writer (or a journalist, really, although I try to produce quality content), I can pull a bit for this guy, who was matching Daniel Norris and Kendall Graveman strike for strike last spring, until foot and elbow (bone chips) issues limited his effectiveness.

    I write a regular Monday notebook, the first issue of which should be out early next week (maybe even Monday) - I'm holding out for the announcement of those minor league rosters.