Miguel Castro in the Bullpen? Don't Do It, AA.

  I don't want to be on a negative streak here, but some of the comments about Miguel Castro have me a little concerned:

Asked AA who might rise fast and be in MLB this season. Two names: Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna. Castro possibly by "opening day".
— Jamie Campbell (@SNETCampbell) March 7, 2015

   I know that I last wrote about Daniel Norris and how I'm not sure he's ready just yet to be relied upon heavily in the Blue Jays rotation, given his pitch efficiency issues (which, granted, are not overwhelming), and that he has had elbow problems in each of the last two seasons.  Both red flags make me want to see him spend at least a bit more time (half a season, maybe) in the minors to continue to refine his skills and build his arm strength.

   If Norris isn't quite ready, then Miguel Castro is even farther away.  The 20 year old has had a phenomenal rise after being signed as an unheralded free agent in January of 2012.  Visa problems delayed his stateside debut until the summer of 2013, and he has been on a helium rise ever since.
   Stats from the lower minors can be deceiving, but some of Castro's are mind-boggling:  9.3 K/9, 0.99 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of almost 3 to 1 over the course of three seasons.  Last season, he pitched at three levels, and seemed to get better with each promotion.  With a fastball that can touch 99 (it's reported the Blue Jays have clocked him as high as 102), minor league hitters have been overmatched against him.  And this is not the first time Alex Anthopoulos has mentioned Castro - at the state of the franchise event last month, he suggested that we could be seeing Castro's heat in the Blue Jays bullpen sooner, rather than later. Having had success with a similar move with Aaron Sanchez last year, Castro could be a key part of the Blue Jays pennant push this year.

   So, given that, why am I preaching caution?
  For starters, Castro's highest Innings Pitched total is 80, which came last year.  He hasn't even pitched a year of full season ball yet, starting last year in short season Vancouver. Using the 30 inning increase per year guideline for young arms, Castro should throw about 110-120 innings this season (he was on a pitch limit of between 60 and 70 last year).  His arm is still developing, and he still is at a high risk for developing the dreaded UCL tear.
   Granted, Anthopoulos has never mentioned Castro being a starter this year, but he does seem tempted to give into the temptation to have Castro follow the path Sanchez took last year.  My only problem with that is that Sanchez has thrown about 350 innings as a minor leaguer, Castro has thrown half that many.
   And I acknowledge that pitch counts and innings alone don't lead to torn UCL's; other factors, like playing year round and in multiple leagues, and faulty pitching mechanics are just as culpable.  From what I can tell, Castro has not pitched as much as some young Americans have by his age, and his mechanics look relatively clean.  He has no history of elbow issues - that we know of. So, from a Tommy John standpoint, perhaps Castro is actually a lower risk that Norris is.  Warming up and pitching several times a week may cause more wear and tear on his young arm than starting, though.

  Again, so why am I not in favour of AA's bullpen plan for Castro?  It comes down to a good starting pitcher having more value to a team than a good reliever.  About the only knock on Castro to this point has been the lack of development of his secondary pitches, but his 97 MPH fastball has lessened his reliance on them to this point.  As he moves up the minor league ladder, he will need to learn to refine and command them with greater effectiveness.  And he won't learn to do that pitching in a major league bullpen, where he will rely on his fastball even more.  Would he be lights out in the Blue Jays bullpen this year?  There's every reason to believe that he could be - if he can stand up to the workload, but that also puts his development as a starter back.

   What should the plan for Castro be?  I'm not in Florida, and I'm not a scout/front office type, but what makes the most sense to me, given his age and experience, is to let him stay in Florida and pitch in High A for Dunedin, like he did last year.  If he pitches well, move him up to New Hampshire once the weather warms up in June.  If his ability and performance dictates it, allow him to move up as far as he can go.

   There is no denying Castro has been impressive thus far, even though he has only pitched two innings.  Would I rather see him in the bullpen now, or in the rotation sometime around mid-season next year?  That's a tough question.  Given his age and where he's at on the developmental curve, I would prefer the more cautious approach.  Anthopoulos has rolled the dice many times over the course of his tenure as the Blue Jays GM, taking players that other teams shied away from because of injury and/or college commitments, and that group is steadily making its way up the minor league ladder.  Since this is a make or break year for him, it's understandable that his preference is to win now, because he will likely have a new boss by season's end, and if he doesn't end the Majors' longest playoff drought by then, it won't matter anyway, because Rogers will likely pull the plug on him.  As a Blue Jays lifer who is in it for the long run, I hope that some of the other bullpen arms in camp jump up and make AA come to his senses.

Putting Daniel Norris Into Perspective

   Daniel Norris is everywhere these days, so it seems.  Last year, the first articles came out about his living a bit of a vagabond off season life, in his Westfalia Van Shaggy, came to light.

   This year, as spring training approached, Norris loaded up Shaggy, and left his home in Tennessee bound for Florida and Spring Training, with some surfing stops along the way.  The media picked up on this even more.

   As someone who has followed Norris closely since his sophomore pro season, it's been rewarding to see how he has risen the minor league ladder, but remained humble and close to his roots.  Faced with adversity in his first pro season and the first month of his second, respected publications like Baseball America were wondering how someone with such lights-out stuff could be hit so hard.  Norris grit his teeth, dug in, and worked his way through that difficult time, and he and his family deserve all the credit in the world for that.

  As a sidenote, it seems that Norris is maybe learning his first lesson about dealing with the media, He granted ESPN access to his travels this winter, and now the mainstream media has picked it up, and Norris is tiring of it, as he told reporters after his spring debut against the Orioles:

“Not a huge fan of it. It’s kind of weird,” Norris said. “I understand at this point in time that it’s inevitable. It’s happened and it’s there, but I’d rather tuck away a little bit. Just play ball.”

  Personally, I think Norris is refreshing.  He could have gone for all the trappings that other young men who find themselves gifted with a $2 million signing bonus do, but all he appears to have purchased is the van and a surfboard.  I don't find his lifestyle all that unusual - as someone who loves the outdoors and tries to spend as much time as possible on outdoor adventures, I can appreciate the simpler life he's trying to lead.  When he was playing rookie ball for Bluefield, in the heart of the Appalachians, Norris led a group of young teammates (many of whom had never been in the wilderness before) on a hike in a nearby State Forest.  Norris is always looking for adventure, and whatever comes his way.



  Norris' debut against the O's was scintillating.  With Baltimore fielding pretty much their opening day lineup, Norris more than held his own, striking out Delmon Young on a lovely curve, and freezing Chris Davis with an outside fastball for a called third strike.  If there's a caveat in there, it's that he reached his pitch count fairly quickly, and threw 36 pitches in an inning and two thirds.  And that's the only thing that we would suggest Norris has to work on - maximizing those pitches, and working deeper into games.

   Norris is in a battle for the 5th spot in the starting rotation, but you can't count on a major contribution from his just yet.  If the accepted rule of thumb is that a pitcher should throw no more than 30 innings more than he did the previous year (it's a guideline only; pitch counts are the better measure), Norris can't be counted on for more than about 160 innings this year.  To have him go beyond that increases the risk of injury.

   And while we're at it, let's not forget that Norris has had elbow issues in both of the past two seasons.  He was shut down for a month in 2013 with elbow soreness, and then had bone chips removed at the end of 2014.  He won't be 22 until April, so he's still in the prime age range for elbow and shoulder injuries (the frequency starts to decrease between 23 and 25).  The bubble wrap will come off of him a little more this year, but before we get excited and pencil him in the rotation and set him up as a Rookie of the Year candidate, let's remember that.

   Just the same, it's an exciting time, and kudos to the Blue Jays and their scouting staff, who were not scared off by Norris' Clemson commitment in 2011, and stood by him during his first season in 2012 after they had overhauled his mechanics.
   Roberto Osuna, another haul from the IFA ranks in 2011, made his spring debut last night as well, and pitched an impressive inning long after all but us prospect diehards had turned the game off.  Osuna still has that wrist wrap at the back of his delivery that the Blue Jays were reportedly trying to eliminate, because it may be limiting the movement of his fastball.  He had the premium velocity at 95, but showed more command than he did late last year and fall after coming back from Tommy John surgery.  He also showed that advanced feel for pitching that we've all heard about, striking out leadoff hitter Trey Mancini in the with a nasty backdoor change up.
   In his own way, Osuna's appearance was just as impressive as Norris' was.  It was a great night to be a Blue Jays fan, even though they lost the game, and fans on Twitter were already pronouncing Devon Travis, off to an 0-6 start, not ready for prime time.  Patience, people......

Spring Training Prospect Update #1

   Major League training camps are already under way, but most minor league camps don't open until next week, far from the media microscope, but some news is slowly making its way north to help thaw out us frozen denizens of the new Sub-Arctic.

   Several Blue Jays prospects were invited to big league camp, and a few have already seen game action.
Dalton Pompey has started both games so far, and acquitted himself well - no surprise.  Miguel Castro threw a scoreless inning yesterday, Devon Travis went 0-4 in his first taste of MLB action, Mitch Nay hit an RBI single, and Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith, Jr made pinch-running appearances.

   Speaking of Nay, who hit an impressive Home Run in the Blue Jays inter-squad game on Monday, word is that he has been working with former Jays third baseman Scott Rolen this spring.  The concern about Nay has always been about his defence, but the club appears intent on giving him every opportunity to play himself out of the position.  Nay didn't show a lot of power at Lansing last year, but the organization isn't concerned, because the Midwest League is not a hitter's haven, and the hope is that Nay's 34 doubles (third highest total in the loop) will start to translate into some distance.  He fell off the radar a bit this past season, but at 21, there's plenty of time and projection left for him.

   Pompey has also been working with former Jay Vernon Wells, who was invited to spring training as a guest instructor.  It's a good PR move for teams to bring these former players back, and it also gives them some added teaching hands, and gives both sides a chance to see if coaching is in the player's future.  Wells, of course, is beyond financially comfortable, and is content to help raise his kids in Texas.  Kids grow up, however, and some of us find ourselves with a sudden surfeit of time when they leave the nest to go away to school.  Maybe Vernon will have a change of heart in a few years.

   The Blue Jays are holding a mini-camp this week for some of their top prospects.  According to Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com, Rowdy Tellez has been an impressive early-reporting prospect.  Tellez recovered from a slow start last year at Bluefield, which included an 0-26 stretch, to bash his way to the Midwest League by season's end.  Tellez has legendary power, but there has always been concern about his body, and if he would be able to play defence.  According to Mayo, Assistant GM Tony LaCava says Tellez has shown up in great shape:

He's really done a great job of conditioning," LaCava said. "He looks like he's transformed his body. It's not even an issue any more. I know that was a concern out of high school. He's worked his butt off to get himself in shape. He looks like he's ready to get going with his first full year at a full-season level."

   Mayo also says that LaCava told him that 2014 5th round draft choice Lane Thomas has also been impressive at the mini-camp.


    Mayo selected a pair of prospects who he thinks will have break out seasons this year:  Tellez, and C Danny Jansen.  Not to boast or anything, but both are on my recent top five Blue Jays breakout prospect candidates list.       

   Jeff Hoffman was a guest on his hometown Albany's 104.5 The Team earlier this week.  Hoffman, the Jays' first of two first round picks who underwent Tommy John surgery a month before the draft tweeted this a week and a half ago:

Bullpen number 15 tomorrow. Bout ready to see someone in the box. ⚡️⚾️🔥
— Jeff Hoffman (@hoff_23) February 23, 2015

   Hoffman told host Armen Williams that he had been throwing off a mound since January 5th, and was feeling about 95%, and will start to face live hitters around the middle of March.  If his rehab continues to go well, Hoffman says he's been told he will return to game action sometime in May - in the Florida State League, we would bet.  He was also asked about his name being mentioned in trade rumours for O's GM Dan Duquette, and Hoffman admitted that it was a distraction, but he knew it was out of his control.

 

Why the Blue Jays (Might Have) Signed Santana

  The signing of Johan Santana to a minor league deal by the Blue Jays was derided by many, understandably so.

 Santana has not thrown a pitch in an MLB game since 2012.  He attempted a comeback with the Orioles last year, but a torn achilles tendon put an end to that..

  The two-time Cy Young Award winner was pitching in his native Venezuela this winter, and according to reports was pitching well, if not at his former velocity, before being shut down with shoulder tightness in January.

  What’s the point in bringing Santana aboard, a reasonable person might well ask?

After all, the guy hasn’t pitched in almost three years, and he seemed for all intents and purposes to be finished after a 134 pitch no-hitter in 2012.  He won’t be ready for Opening Day, and may not be ready until May, at the earliest. And he has a lengthy history of injuries and resulting surgeries, so at the age of 35, isn’t it time to look elsewhere for starting pitching support?

  It’s hard to explain the Blue Jays thinking, but here goes….

  We all know that the first four spots in the Blue Jays starting rotation are all but sewn up by Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, Drew Hutchison, and Marcus Stroman (and not necessarily in that order). The fifth spot is up for grabs, with Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada the leading candidates, and Todd Redmond and Chad Jenkins on the furthest margins for the job.

  Sanchez has a history of struggling with the command of his full repertoire of pitches, although he was lights out when limited to his fastball/sinker in a half season of relief last year.  Brett Cecil would appear to have the edge for the closer’s job at the moment, but if he struggles, or if the club has trouble filling out their bullpen with suitable arms, Sanchez could find himself in an 8th or 9th inning role fairly quickly.  As much as it makes sense to try to give him an opportunity to establish himself as a starter, if he scuffles, that may have to take place in Buffalo.

 Norris rode an incredible wave of helium to rise from High A ball to the Majors last year, and has firmly established himself as one the game’s top prospects.  His mid-90s fastball and secondary pitches allowed him to miss a lot of bats last year.  At the same time, economizing his pitch count was an issue in 2014.  Norris was on a strict 90 pitch count for much of the season, but he worked his way beyond the sixth inning in only 2 out of 25 starts.  The next step in his development as a pitcher is to learn to induce more weak contact from hitters.  Strikeouts are great, and decrease reliance on the defence, but groundball outs are more efficient.  Pitchers who can get some outs in the seventh innings save wear and tear on their bullpens. Stroman has already proven that he has learned this lesson.  Norris may need more time at AAA in order to learn it himself.

  So, in the best and rosiest of scenarios, Santana gets himself back into shape in spring training, then gets his feet underneath him four 3-4 starts at Buffalo. With off days on the 7th and 20th of April, the team may only need 3 starts from the fifth man in the rotation for the month.  Estrada, if the two youngsters falter, could hold down that spot, and then help bolster the bullpen when Santana is ready. With his flyball tendency, it's better for Estrada to have his pitches cut back, and have him throw out of the bullpen in the long term.

 A medium-case scenario would have Santana pitching until mid-season, by which time Norris has proven he’s ready for the big time.  Or Santana has a prolonged stay in Buffalo, and provides some insurance. Since he can opt out of his deal if he's not on the 25-man by April 28th, that's not likely. And if he's not on the 25-man by then, his already slim chances of helping the team will have become eye of the needle-like.

 Worst case scenario:  Santana has nothing left, and proves that he’s finished once and for all.  It cost very little, and it’s not like there’s a hole in the rotation left by his absence.  

Saunders Injury Points Out Weakness in Jays' System

Michael Saunders stepped on soft spot around underground sprinkler on outfield grass while shagging flies yesterday. Left knee buckled.
— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) February 26, 2015

 And there it is.
One misstep on the field has left the Blue Jays scrambling for a replacement for the injured Michael Saunders, who is now out until the All Star break with a torn meniscus.
This certainly opens the door wider for Kevin Pillar and Dalton Pompey to earn jobs with the big club this spring, but with the trade of Anthony Gose for Devon Travis, it points out how thin the Blue Jays are at that position, and may force an earlier than anticipated dealing of surplus catcher Dioner Navarro.

Here's a sampling of Outfielders the Blue Jays have drafted since Alex Anthopoulos took over as GM:

Player                                                                 Year/Round
Dalton Pompey                                                    2010/16
Jacob Anderson                                                   2011/1st supp.
Dwight Smith                                                      2011/1st supp.
Derrick Loveless                                                 2011/27
Kevin Pillar                                                         2011/32
D.J. Davis                                                            2012/1st
Anthony Alford                                                   2012/3rd
Ian Parmley                                                          2012/7th
D.J. Jones                                                             2012/20th
Josh Almonte                                                       2012/22nd
Jonathan Davis                                                     2013/15th
Chaz Frank                                                           2013/20th
Brendan Kalfus                                                    2013/23rd
Lane Thomas                                                       2014/5th

 On the one hand, this list should not be a surprise.  The Blue Jays have loaded up on pitching with many of their top picks over the last 4 drafts - again, no surprise, because "grow the arms, buy the bats" is a time-honoured and accepted practice in the industry.  Scouting pitchers is more quantifiable than hitters, because there are more common benchmarks (velocity, break on the curve ball, repeating the delivery, etc) to use when evaluating a pitching prospect.
  Many players drafted at one position also tend to outgrow that spot, sometime necessitating a move to the outfield, so the relative lack of drafted outfielders the Jays have drafted isn't a huge concern.
  At the same time, of the players on the above list, only Pompey and Pillar have played above High A ball.  Anderson has had 10 AB in the past three seasons, Davis was a disappointment after his first year of full season ball, and Alford has shown that despite his impressive toolkit, he still is several years away.
   Anthopolous has several options here, including dealing Navarro and/or some of that minor league pitching depth, but either way, his hand has been forced, and outside of Dwight Smith (who has been auditioned at second), there's no one in the system who is remotely close.
  Another option might be to try Travis in the outfield.  The Tigers were planning on giving him a trial in the Arizona Fall League there, until he was sidelined by an injury.  Learning a new position at the major league level is not optimal, however.

Maxed Pentecost?

      Word came down from Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith that Max Pentecost, the club's second first round pick last June, had a second procedure performed on his throwing shoulder this week.
He referred to the procedure as a "clean out" of the shoulder joint, performed by arthroscopic surgery.
Nicholson-Smith says the same operation was performed in October,

   I have to admit to being a little confused about the whole situation.  According to multiple reports last fall, Pentecost had surgery to repair a torn labrum, which is a much more extensive, invasive and delicate procedure.  With an arthroscope, the scope is inserted through an incision to examine the affected area, and make any necessary repairs.  Recovery from a torn labrum can take up to a year, depending on the extent of the tear.  The recovery time for a scope is much shorter - Pentecost can start throwing in May.  Reliever John Stilson underwent labrum surgery last August (his second such operation), and likely won't be ready to start throwing until the end of spring training at the earliest.

   Which one was it?   Nicholson-Smith claims the October surgery was a scope.  The always-excellent Alexis Brudnicki of the Canadian Baseball Network, Baseball America, and several other places, reported that it was a partial tear shortly after the first surgery. To me, it's not clear.

   Either way, there's really no reason to panic.  With the acquisition of Russell Martin, Pentecost's development has been pushed back anyway, and even though he was hurting in his short audition with Vancouver behind the plate last year, sources indicate that his defensive skills need some work.
Scouts have generally regarded him as having good pop time, but he needs further tutoring and refinement of his footwork, pitch blocking, and game-calling skills. His bat and base-running ability will always be his most prominent tools, but his work behind the plate needs upgrading before he's ready for prime time.  In a way, this injury buys him more development time.

   It's not unusual for baseball players to need their elbows and/or shoulders cleaned up.  The violent and unnatural action that is throwing a baseball is bound to lead to fibre and bone detritus floating around in those joints.  Daniel Norris had bone chips removed from his throwing elbow after last season, as did prospect Matt Boyd.  I don't want to say that it's routine, but the success rate is pretty high.

  There are some who are already calling Pentecost damaged goods.  He did wear down after a long college season last summer, and had a number of dings, including his shoulder, that necessitated an early shutdown and return to Florida.  His timetable for making the major leagues, to me, was always 2-3 years away in the best of scenarios.  It's hard for any prospect to make the leap from college ball to the majors right away, and catching may be one of the biggest leaps of all.  The Blue Jays aren't planning on having Pentecost in the lineup this year, nor the next.  If this procedure was a scope, as Nicholson-Smith says, there's not a lot to worry about.  Pentecost may be able to DH early this year, although his recovery time will probably cut into how many plate appearances he can accumulate.
The most likely path for him this year is to stay in Florida for extended spring training for some or all of April, and then be assigned to Dunedin of the Florida State League.

  Lastly, as I am not a medical doctor (although I have a fair amount of first-hand surgical experience, which, unfortunately, I was not awake for), my medical advice and knowledge is suspect, so here is a good resource on all things related to shoulder injuries and their treatment.