Sean Nolin DFA'd by Oakland

MLB.com photo

    Once a Blue Jays prospect, always a Blue Jays prospect, in my mind.

   Tall (6'4"), stocky (250 lbs) Sean Nolin was a 6th round pick by Toronto in the 2010 draft, from legendary San Jacinto JC.  Nolin had been drafted in the late rounds by the Brewers in 2008, and the Mariners in 2009, but the Long Island, NY native turned them down.

   Nolin's draft report from Baseball America was decent, but hardly impressive:

At 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds, Sean Nolin looks like a lefthanded version of Jason Jennings. Nolin's fastball will sit at 86-89 mph in some games and 88-92 in others, and he backs it up with a solid changeup and fringy curveball.

   Nonetheless, aided especially by that change, he rocketed through the lower levels of the Blue Jays system, striking out more than a batter per inning,  reaching AA by 2012.  He made his first appearance on the Toronto Top 10 prospects list after that season, but 2012 proved to be the high water mark for his Blue Jays career.
   Nolin's 2013 got off to a slow start due to a lingering groin injury, but he was surprisingly added to the 40-man roster in late May, and was rocked for 6 runs in an inning and a third. in his MLB debut against the Orioles. Nolin was sent back to the minors after that start, burning one of his options.
   Still, there was plenty to be optimistic about.  Fangraphs was still high on Nolin as a back of the rotation innings eater heading into 2014:

 Nolin could develop into a solid No. 4 starter with the ability to chew up a ton of innings. The southpaw has good control but is still working to establish consistent fastball command. His heater ranges from the high-80s to the low-90s. His repertoire also includes an above-average changeup and two breaking balls (curveball, slider). Standing 6-5, Nolin needs to do a better job of leveraging his height to create a downward plane on the ball in an effort to work down in the strike zone on a more consistent basis..... the native of New York state has a chance to be a reliable back-of-the-rotation workhorse, and players of that description are harder to come by than you might think — especially ones that throw left-handed. He might be attractive to another organization as a nearly-ready, southpaw hurler should trade discussions turn into something concrete this off-season.

  Injuries once again derailed Nolin's 2014, limiting him to 100 innings.  By this time, not only had he been passed by  the likes of Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, but other prospects like Daniel Norris, Kendall Graveman, Matt Boyd, and Miguel Castro had moved ahead of Nolin in the eyes of the organization.  A strong Arizona Fall League campaign redeemed Nolin's status somewhat, but it may have been more to showcase him, as Toronto packaged him in the deal for Josh Donaldson in the November, 2014 deal with Oakland.  Again, an inability to stay healthy limited Nolin in 2015, and that, coupled with his lack of remaining options mean that when the Athletics' acquired OF Khris Davis from the Brewers to fill a gap in their lineup yesterday, something had to give in order to create room on the 40-man for Davis.  Oakland Designated Nolin for Assignment, meaning they have 10 days to release him, trade him, or place him on waivers, which is the most likely bet - the Athletics haven't necessarily given up on him, but at this point he doesn't fit into their immediate future.

   A victim of the numbers game like former fellow Blue Jays farmhand Chad Jenkins, Nolin has demonstrated enough to be an important minor league depth piece, but not enough to continue to occupy a space on a major league roster.  His left-handedness and ability to fill up the strike zone will mean that some organization will want him.  Oakland knew at the end of the season that he probably didn't fit into their plans for 2016, but hung onto him long enough to make sure that other teams had their rosters full or close to full as spring training approached.
   The website SwinginAs.com thought that DFA'ing Nolin was a huge mistake, suggesting that either one-time Blue Jay Felix Doubront, or Aaron Brooks would potentially contribute less than Nolin to the A's rotation.  Susan Slusser, who covers the Athletics for the San Francisco Chronicle, was surprised at the move, and wondered if it was made because the club thought they might be able to sneak Nolin through waivers, or because he could bring back some value in a trade.
    Either way, Oakland appears to be cutting bait from the Donaldson deal:  they do have Franklin Barreto, who is among the top prospects in the game, but now Nolin risks becoming a former A, along with trade-mate Brett Lawrie.

Chad Jenkins: End of the QEW Shuffle?

Toronto Star photo

   The Blue Jays signed Gavin Floyd to a major league contract on Saturday, designating Swingman Chad Jenkins for assignment.


   Jenkins was the Jays 1st round pick (20th overall) in 2009, the last first round pick of the J.P Ricciardi era.  Say what you will about the club's approach to drafting during the Ricciardi era, this last go produced a fair amount of talent for Toronto (and other clubs), including:

-1st round compensation pick (for the loss of Marco Scutaro) James Paxton, who the Blue Jays were unable to sign.  With the compensation pick they received the following year, they selected Noah Syndergaard, who went to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey deal.
-3rd round comp pick (for the loss of free agent A.J. Burnett), they chose Jake Marisnick, who was part of the package sent to Florida in the Jose Reyes-Mark Buehrle deal.
-4th round pick Ryan Goins filled in admirably for both Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki last year
-5th round pick Ryan Schimpf has topped 20 Home Runs each of the past four minor league seasons, and has been a good MiLB depth piece.
-9th round pick Aaron Loup has provided solid long relief out of the bullpen since 2012
-10th rounder Yan Gomes, who was dealt to the Indians for no apparent reason, has provided Cleveland with decent value
-15th round pick Drew Hutchison
-19th rounder Ryan Tepara has a shot at a spot in long relief after making his MLB debut last year.
   Not an outstanding group (outside, potentially, of Syndergaard), but only the Braves and White Sox 2010 draft classes have produced more WAR as a group.

   A then-August 15th deadline signing, Jenkins moved slowly but steadily through the Toronto system after making his pro debut in 2010.  Baseball America's draft report about Jenkins said:

A mid-80s guy in high school, Jenkins had a soft body but his arm worked well, and he has improved significantly in college. He had a strong sophomore season, first with Kennesaw State (5-5, 3.96), then in the Great Lakes League. Jenkins has firmed up his still soft body, and his velocity has caught up with his ability to throw strikes. He now has two or three plus pitches at times with good command, giving him serious helium. Jenkins has a great feel for pitching and now sits at 90-93 mph with his hard sinker and reaches back for 96 mph with a four-seamer at times. His sinker has boring action in on righthanded hitters when it's going well. His slider gives him a second plus pitch. His changeup is average. Jenkins repeats his delivery, and scouts see his big 6-foot-4, 225-pound body as a durable asset, particularly if he keeps getting in better shape. He resembles Phillies righthander Joe Blanton, with better command, and should go in the first 20 picks.

   By 2012, he had advanced to AA, and after a near-epidemic of injuries to the pitching staff, made his MLB debut in August, pitching decently in a relief role, before being given three starts at the end of the season. Injuries cost him a chunk of 2013, but he pitched well in 10 appearances (3 starts) with the team.  2014 again saw him spend a fair amount of time on the QEW, with 3 separate stints with the Jays, all in relief, but he put up decent numbers, only to have his season end when he was fractured his hand during batting practice in early September.
2015 saw him make all of two appearances with Toronto, seeming to be the beginning of the end of his time with the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays now have 10 days to trade Jenkins, place him on waivers, release him, or outright him to the minors.  What went wrong for Jenkins?  How did he wind up getting to know some of the Peace Bridge customs officials on both sides of the border on a first name basis?
2009 was the year, of course, the Blue Jays passed on a New Jersey High Schooler named Mike Trout, but then again, 23 other teams did too.  The Nationals took San Diego St RHP Stephen Strasburg with the 1st overall pick, and newly acquired Blue Jay Drew Storen with the 10th, the Braves took P Shelby Miller with the pick before Jenkins, and the Twins took P Kyle Gibson.  Garrett Richards was taken by the Angels with the 42nd pick.  What I'm trying to suggest is that by the time the Blue Jays' turn to pick came around at 20, there wasn't a lot left in terms of upper-level talent, and Jenkins was as good a pick as any.

   As a starter, Jenkins throws a four-pitch mix, but his four-seamer doesn't get a lot of movement, and generated no swings and misses when he threw it to major leaguers in 2014.  His sinker, which came in at 91-92, tended not to have a lot of depth to it either, meaning that he gave up some contact.  As a reliever, that's not what the club was necessarily looking for.  As a guy with options remaining in 2013 and 2014, he was often the first one sent down - he was recalled from Buffalo a total of 10 times in his career.  In 2015, after starting in his first four appearances (and pitching well, other than his first), Jenkins was shuttled to the bullpen as insurance for May, June, and July, waiting for a call that never came.  If there's one thing apparent from his time with the Blue Jays, is that while he filled the strike zone reasonably well, he didn't miss enough bats to stick:

    Jenkins didn't experience a significant uptick in velocity when he moved to the bullpen, and he was sometimes a victim of a numbers game.  With Liam Hendriks experiencing success in a long relief role with Toronto this year, Jenkins was the odd man out, which is unfortunate, because he may have benefitted from the improved infield defence the club fielded in the second half of the season.  Jenkins profiles more as a tweener, someone who could start and relieve, but wasn't effective enough at either to have a more secure and defined role on a Major League roster. Even with the holes in Buffalo's rotation after last season, Jenkins was not considered to be a piece of that puzzle due to his option status.  In the end, he was good, but not good enough.
    This morning, it was announced that Jenkins had indeed cleared waiviers, and was outrighted to Buffalo, meaning not much has changed, other than he no longer has a spot on the 40-man roster. His AAAA status is all but secure.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week 2

   Here's a wrap of the week that was in the Toronto Blue Jays minor league system:

Buffalo (6-1)
   The week got off to a bizarre start for the Bisons when their Monday game with Pawtucket that was suspended by rain and moved to Tuesday to completed as part of a doubleheader.  The second game of that set, in turn, was postponed by a power failure.
   Buffalo lost that suspended game, but then ran off six wins in a row, culminating with a sweep of Lehigh Valley when the Bisons went into the botton of the 9th trailing 4-1,  to close their home stand.
   Jeff Francis pitched five innings of shut out ball in the first game of the Wednesday twin bill, and fellow Canadian Andrew Albers responded with six frames of runless ball in the night cap.  Scott Copeland followed that up with a sparkling 7 innings the next day, allowing only one run on three hits.  Randy Wolf and Chad Jenkins each had strong starts over the weekend.
   With Colt Hynes needing some rest, he was optioned to Buffalo, and Francis was recalled to take his place.  Francis' great week continued with four innings of scoreless relief for the Blue Jays on Sunday.
  Andy Burns was promoted from New Hampshire, and was a scintillating 4-4 in his International League debut on Friday.

New Hampshire (1-6)
   The Fisher Cats got off to a good start by beating Reading to start the week, but then promptly lost their next six games in a row.
   Matt Boyd struck out 9 batters over 5 innings for the second straight start.  Scoring runs has become a bit of a challenge for New Hampshire.  Leadoff hitter Jon Berti was supposed to be a table setter, but has struggled at the plate.  Dwight Smith Jr has been hitting, on the other hand, and closed the week at .317.  A.J. Jimenez was activated from the disabled list to the Fisher Cats, and was in the lineup this weekend.

Dunedin (3-4)
   The D-Jays had a win one/lose one pattern for the week.
Jairo Labourt couldn't get out of the first inning in his start on Monday, but redeemed himself with 8Ks in 4 innings on Saturday.
  Scoring runs has been an issue for Dunedin as well, having been shut out in back to back games against Bradenton.

Lansing (5-2)
  It was a great week for the Lugnuts, who we were able to see a fair amount of during their series with Great Lakes, thanks to milb.tv.
   Lansing had a six game winning streak snapped during that series, the day after winning a 16-inning marathon against the Loons.  Great Lakes, wanting to save what was left of their bullpen, sent a position player in to pitch the top of the 16th, and he served up a two run homer to Rowdy Tellez.
   Conner Greene and Sean Reid-Foley made their full season debuts this week, and pitched well.  Greene struck out 5 in as many innings while surrendering only one run, while Reid-Foley K'd 6 in 3 scoreless innings in his debut.  Greene is piggybacking with Alonzo Gonzalez for the first part of the season, while Reid-Foley is working in tandem with Justin Shafer.
   Starlyn Suriel and Shane Dawson were dominant in their piggyback start in the extra inning game.  Suriel is not a big guy, and doesn't overpower hitters, but relies on movement and location.  Dawson, who missed much of last year, seems to be getting his velocity going, as he hit 92 in his appearance.
   Dan Jansen has shown fine receiving skills, but has struggled at the plate.  He made his first MWL hit a memorable one, though, hitting one over the left field wall at Great Lakes.
   Much has been made of DJ Davis.  The first round pick from 2012 is repeating Low A, and I was concerned about his pitch selection in the at bats I saw him have this week.  He seems to take pitches in the zone, and swing at a lot of pitches outside of the zone.  At the same time, he reached base in the Lugs first 10 games.  In the outfield, his speed allows him to cover a great deal of ground, and he hauled in several drives against Great Lakes that at first looked like they were headed for extra bases.  Davis still needs to cut down on the Ks (15 in his first 45 PAs), but I still want to give him a bit more time.  Davis was one of the youngest players taken in his draft year, and that and the fact that he played his HS ball in Mississippi means that his developmental curve may be longer than most.


Notes
  I asked Lugnuts broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler when he thinks Anthony Alford will return from injury, and he thinks the speedy outfielder will be back by the end of the month.
  I also was in contact with Canadian pitcher Jordan Romano, who was reportedly hitting 95 on the gun earlier in spring training, before suffering a torn UCL.  Romano had Tommy John surgery performed by Dr James Andrew on March 30th, and while he's still wearing a brace, he has already started rehab.
  Jeff Hoffman is slowly building up his innings as he approaches the first anniversary of his Tommy John surgery.  He threw two innings in an intrasquad game at extended spring training, hitting 97 on the gun.  If all continues to go well, Hoffman should pitch in a game that counts, likely at Lansing or Dunedin, by mid-May.

Why the Blue Jays (Might Have) Signed Santana

  The signing of Johan Santana to a minor league deal by the Blue Jays was derided by many, understandably so.

 Santana has not thrown a pitch in an MLB game since 2012.  He attempted a comeback with the Orioles last year, but a torn achilles tendon put an end to that..

  The two-time Cy Young Award winner was pitching in his native Venezuela this winter, and according to reports was pitching well, if not at his former velocity, before being shut down with shoulder tightness in January.

  What’s the point in bringing Santana aboard, a reasonable person might well ask?

After all, the guy hasn’t pitched in almost three years, and he seemed for all intents and purposes to be finished after a 134 pitch no-hitter in 2012.  He won’t be ready for Opening Day, and may not be ready until May, at the earliest. And he has a lengthy history of injuries and resulting surgeries, so at the age of 35, isn’t it time to look elsewhere for starting pitching support?

  It’s hard to explain the Blue Jays thinking, but here goes….

  We all know that the first four spots in the Blue Jays starting rotation are all but sewn up by Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, Drew Hutchison, and Marcus Stroman (and not necessarily in that order). The fifth spot is up for grabs, with Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada the leading candidates, and Todd Redmond and Chad Jenkins on the furthest margins for the job.

  Sanchez has a history of struggling with the command of his full repertoire of pitches, although he was lights out when limited to his fastball/sinker in a half season of relief last year.  Brett Cecil would appear to have the edge for the closer’s job at the moment, but if he struggles, or if the club has trouble filling out their bullpen with suitable arms, Sanchez could find himself in an 8th or 9th inning role fairly quickly.  As much as it makes sense to try to give him an opportunity to establish himself as a starter, if he scuffles, that may have to take place in Buffalo.

 Norris rode an incredible wave of helium to rise from High A ball to the Majors last year, and has firmly established himself as one the game’s top prospects.  His mid-90s fastball and secondary pitches allowed him to miss a lot of bats last year.  At the same time, economizing his pitch count was an issue in 2014.  Norris was on a strict 90 pitch count for much of the season, but he worked his way beyond the sixth inning in only 2 out of 25 starts.  The next step in his development as a pitcher is to learn to induce more weak contact from hitters.  Strikeouts are great, and decrease reliance on the defence, but groundball outs are more efficient.  Pitchers who can get some outs in the seventh innings save wear and tear on their bullpens. Stroman has already proven that he has learned this lesson.  Norris may need more time at AAA in order to learn it himself.

  So, in the best and rosiest of scenarios, Santana gets himself back into shape in spring training, then gets his feet underneath him four 3-4 starts at Buffalo. With off days on the 7th and 20th of April, the team may only need 3 starts from the fifth man in the rotation for the month.  Estrada, if the two youngsters falter, could hold down that spot, and then help bolster the bullpen when Santana is ready. With his flyball tendency, it's better for Estrada to have his pitches cut back, and have him throw out of the bullpen in the long term.

 A medium-case scenario would have Santana pitching until mid-season, by which time Norris has proven he’s ready for the big time.  Or Santana has a prolonged stay in Buffalo, and provides some insurance. Since he can opt out of his deal if he's not on the 25-man by April 28th, that's not likely. And if he's not on the 25-man by then, his already slim chances of helping the team will have become eye of the needle-like.

 Worst case scenario:  Santana has nothing left, and proves that he’s finished once and for all.  It cost very little, and it’s not like there’s a hole in the rotation left by his absence.  

Blue Jays Prospects: Who Could Contribute This Year?

   A Twitter follower asked us if we could come up with a list of prospects not named Daniel Norris or Dalton Pompey who we thought might make a contribution with the Blue Jays in 2015.
   That's a tough task, given that the club's top two hopefuls (Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman) not only had lengthy stays on the 25 man roster last year, they also made significant contributions to the club, and Norris and Pompey are likely to have a similar impact at some point next year.  Of all the prospects in the Blue Jays system, there is only one who might have any kind of similar impact in 2015:

Miguel Castro, RHP
   The one player who could make an Aaron Sanchez-like impact is this tall, skinny Dominican hurler.
   Castro regularly hits 98 on the gun and touches 100 with his fastball. Northwest League hitters were over matched against him, so he was promoted to Lansing and then Dunedin before season's end.
   The knock against Castro, as has been well documented, is that his secondary pitches grade as average at best. He will likely start at Dunedin and be moved to New Hampshire if he continues to have the kind of success he has had to date.  If his offspeed repertoire has not advanced enough, AA hitters will likely make him pay for it - if they can get around on his fastball.
  Alex Anthopolous himself has suggested that we may see Castro in the Toronto bullpen this summer.  If his first few starts at AA are rough ones, we don't think the club would hesitate to make the switch, and have him follow a conversion similar to that of Sanchez - a couple of Milb relief appearances, and a promotion to the bigs by mid-summer.
  As much as we would like the club to give Castro every chance to prove he can be a starter this year, and given the status of the current Toronto pen, this plan makes a lot of sense.
   MLB.com gives us a glimpse of the 19 year old:

 So, the following players are ones who we think have an outside shot at making an appearance at some point in the major leagues this year, but their impact will likely be less dramatic.

Ryan Tepera, RHP
   A middling starter for much of his career since being chosen by Toronto in the 19th round of the 2009 draft, Tepera's fortunes began to change when the organization moved him to a bullpen role with New Hampshire in 2013.
   Left off the 40 man roster and eligible for the Rule 5 draft last fall, Marc Hulett named Tepera as his top selection.  Luckily, all 30 MLB teams passed on him, and Tepera pitched in relief for Buffalo last season.  His numbers were not overwhelming, but he struck out slightly more than a batter per inning, and had a decent BB/K ratio.
   Tepera has hit 96 with his fastball, and has a sinker with good downward action.  The Blue Jays thought enough of him that they put him on the 40 man just before the November deadline this year, in order to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.  We can't see him breaking camp with the big team in April, but we can see him with the club at some point, especially if there are any bullpen meltdowns.
  You won't get a strike out the side type of power arm with Tepera, but what you will get is a pitcher who throws strikes, and pounds the lower part of the strike zone.  His likely role with the club would be in long relief, doing a Chad Jenkins-like Toronto-Buffalo QEW Shuffle.


Chad Jenkins, RHP
   We can't really think of the 2009 1st rounder as a prospect anymore, but the truth is that he pitched well for the club in a variety of roles last year, including emergency starter and first guy out of the pen.
  Jenkins is not a flamethrower, barely topping 91 with his fastball.  What he does is keep the ball down, essential for any Rogers Centre pitcher:

  Jenkins has one year of options remaining, so it's likely that he will continue in his role as a fill-in, cross the Peace Bridge multiple times guy.  He can make a contribution, but it will most likely be in an emergency role.

AJ Jimenez, C
   Once a fringe Top 10 prospect, Jimenez has fallen off the radar due to an inability to stay healthy over the past two years, and growing concerns about his bat.
   Having watched a fair bit of him, he has the makings of a premium backstop.  Lithe and athletic, his moves behind the plate are cat-like.  He is adept at blocking balls in the dirt, and is a good handler of pitchers - he's caught a fair amount of Stroman, Sanchez, and a bit of Norris.
   At the plate, Jimenez has a line drive stroke, but doesn't project to hit for much power.  He doesn't walk or strikeout out a whole lot:

 

MLBfarm.com

    The signing of Russell Martin, of course, was not good news for Jimenez.  With Josh Thole firmly ensconced as RA Dickey's catcher, there would appear to be no room for Jimenez, who is heading into his final year of options.  If Martin proves successful at catching Dickey's knuckler, or if he gets injured, a spot might open up for Jimenez.  With Max Pentecost and Danny Jansen on their way up the system, Jimenez's time with the organization might be limited, anyway.  If he were to make a contribution to the club this year, it would be in a reserve role.

Andy Burns, 3B

   Burns was the surprise of the organization last year, playing at A+ and AA before finishing off his season in fine style in the Arizona Fall League.

  A slow start cost him a chance at advancement this year.  Burns hit .200/.261/.294 in April, and .223/.317/.359 in May before finally heating up, and finishing the year at .255/.315/.430.  

   He played mostly 3rd this year at AA, but Burns has the athleticism to play a variety of positions both infield and outfield.  The Blue Jays played him at five positions in Arizona, as it looks like they are priming him to be a super utility player.  With things more or less open in the competition for the 2nd base job with Toronto at spring training, it will be interesting to see where the club decides to play Burns, who will likely play at Buffalo.  

  If injuries and/or inconsistency open up a spot for a player who can play a variety of positions, Burns could get an audition.

Jon Berti, 2B, Devon Travis 2B
   The acquisition of Travis  pushes Berti down the depth chart.  Berti projects to have plus speed, but the question is if he will get on base enough to take advantage of it.  Berti drew good reviews for his play against top calibre competition in the Arizona Fall League.
   Travis, similar to Kevin Pillar, has hit just about everywhere he has played, but like Pillar has more than his fair share of detractors.  He will likely start the season at Buffalo, with Berti returning to New Hampshire.  The need for some offence at the position on the big club is so huge that we can easily see one of the pair get a trial in the majors if they get off to a blazing start.
   With his speed, Berti profiles more as a leadoff hitter, although he posted his lowest walk rate in four years of pro ball last year at AA.  Travis is projected to be more of a bat will play kind of guy, likely in the bottom third of the order.
 


   And that's about it.  Farm systems tend to be cyclical in nature, so this year may be a bit of a down year in terms of producing players who can make a significant impact at the major league level.  As we have written before, with over half of the system's depth a Low A or lower, and with 3 of its top 20 prospects traded in the Josh Donaldson deal, it will take at least another year to produce any more top level talent.