Chad Jenkins: End of the QEW Shuffle?

Toronto Star photo

   The Blue Jays signed Gavin Floyd to a major league contract on Saturday, designating Swingman Chad Jenkins for assignment.


   Jenkins was the Jays 1st round pick (20th overall) in 2009, the last first round pick of the J.P Ricciardi era.  Say what you will about the club's approach to drafting during the Ricciardi era, this last go produced a fair amount of talent for Toronto (and other clubs), including:

-1st round compensation pick (for the loss of Marco Scutaro) James Paxton, who the Blue Jays were unable to sign.  With the compensation pick they received the following year, they selected Noah Syndergaard, who went to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey deal.
-3rd round comp pick (for the loss of free agent A.J. Burnett), they chose Jake Marisnick, who was part of the package sent to Florida in the Jose Reyes-Mark Buehrle deal.
-4th round pick Ryan Goins filled in admirably for both Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki last year
-5th round pick Ryan Schimpf has topped 20 Home Runs each of the past four minor league seasons, and has been a good MiLB depth piece.
-9th round pick Aaron Loup has provided solid long relief out of the bullpen since 2012
-10th rounder Yan Gomes, who was dealt to the Indians for no apparent reason, has provided Cleveland with decent value
-15th round pick Drew Hutchison
-19th rounder Ryan Tepara has a shot at a spot in long relief after making his MLB debut last year.
   Not an outstanding group (outside, potentially, of Syndergaard), but only the Braves and White Sox 2010 draft classes have produced more WAR as a group.

   A then-August 15th deadline signing, Jenkins moved slowly but steadily through the Toronto system after making his pro debut in 2010.  Baseball America's draft report about Jenkins said:

A mid-80s guy in high school, Jenkins had a soft body but his arm worked well, and he has improved significantly in college. He had a strong sophomore season, first with Kennesaw State (5-5, 3.96), then in the Great Lakes League. Jenkins has firmed up his still soft body, and his velocity has caught up with his ability to throw strikes. He now has two or three plus pitches at times with good command, giving him serious helium. Jenkins has a great feel for pitching and now sits at 90-93 mph with his hard sinker and reaches back for 96 mph with a four-seamer at times. His sinker has boring action in on righthanded hitters when it's going well. His slider gives him a second plus pitch. His changeup is average. Jenkins repeats his delivery, and scouts see his big 6-foot-4, 225-pound body as a durable asset, particularly if he keeps getting in better shape. He resembles Phillies righthander Joe Blanton, with better command, and should go in the first 20 picks.

   By 2012, he had advanced to AA, and after a near-epidemic of injuries to the pitching staff, made his MLB debut in August, pitching decently in a relief role, before being given three starts at the end of the season. Injuries cost him a chunk of 2013, but he pitched well in 10 appearances (3 starts) with the team.  2014 again saw him spend a fair amount of time on the QEW, with 3 separate stints with the Jays, all in relief, but he put up decent numbers, only to have his season end when he was fractured his hand during batting practice in early September.
2015 saw him make all of two appearances with Toronto, seeming to be the beginning of the end of his time with the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays now have 10 days to trade Jenkins, place him on waivers, release him, or outright him to the minors.  What went wrong for Jenkins?  How did he wind up getting to know some of the Peace Bridge customs officials on both sides of the border on a first name basis?
2009 was the year, of course, the Blue Jays passed on a New Jersey High Schooler named Mike Trout, but then again, 23 other teams did too.  The Nationals took San Diego St RHP Stephen Strasburg with the 1st overall pick, and newly acquired Blue Jay Drew Storen with the 10th, the Braves took P Shelby Miller with the pick before Jenkins, and the Twins took P Kyle Gibson.  Garrett Richards was taken by the Angels with the 42nd pick.  What I'm trying to suggest is that by the time the Blue Jays' turn to pick came around at 20, there wasn't a lot left in terms of upper-level talent, and Jenkins was as good a pick as any.

   As a starter, Jenkins throws a four-pitch mix, but his four-seamer doesn't get a lot of movement, and generated no swings and misses when he threw it to major leaguers in 2014.  His sinker, which came in at 91-92, tended not to have a lot of depth to it either, meaning that he gave up some contact.  As a reliever, that's not what the club was necessarily looking for.  As a guy with options remaining in 2013 and 2014, he was often the first one sent down - he was recalled from Buffalo a total of 10 times in his career.  In 2015, after starting in his first four appearances (and pitching well, other than his first), Jenkins was shuttled to the bullpen as insurance for May, June, and July, waiting for a call that never came.  If there's one thing apparent from his time with the Blue Jays, is that while he filled the strike zone reasonably well, he didn't miss enough bats to stick:

    Jenkins didn't experience a significant uptick in velocity when he moved to the bullpen, and he was sometimes a victim of a numbers game.  With Liam Hendriks experiencing success in a long relief role with Toronto this year, Jenkins was the odd man out, which is unfortunate, because he may have benefitted from the improved infield defence the club fielded in the second half of the season.  Jenkins profiles more as a tweener, someone who could start and relieve, but wasn't effective enough at either to have a more secure and defined role on a Major League roster. Even with the holes in Buffalo's rotation after last season, Jenkins was not considered to be a piece of that puzzle due to his option status.  In the end, he was good, but not good enough.
    This morning, it was announced that Jenkins had indeed cleared waiviers, and was outrighted to Buffalo, meaning not much has changed, other than he no longer has a spot on the 40-man roster. His AAAA status is all but secure.

Opening Day Review

   Two of the Blue Jays affiliates celebrated their home openers yesterday. Well, one did, the other  and Mother Nature had something to say about the other.

   The Buffalo Bisons hosted Rochester, and went up against the Twins' top pitching prospect, Alex Myers.  Myers battled some control issues, surrendering 6 walks, but the Red Wings pounded Bisons starter Andrew Albers for 8 hits and 4 runs, and took the contest 6-3.  Buffalo battled back with a pair of runs in the sixth to pull within a run, but Rochester scored a pair off of Bisons closer Bobby Korecky in the final frame to put the game out of reach.
   Ryan Tepara and Gregory Infante each had scoreless outings in relief of Albers. There's a good chance that one or both may see time with the Blue Jays.

  New Hampshire had their home opener against New Britain postponed by wind, snow, and rain. There was no word on who was to have started the game, but my bet was Matt Boyd.  The Fisher Cats will make up the game with the Rock Cats as part of a twin bill on Sunday.  There's no word again on today's starter as New Hampshire will try to open their season again, but it would have to be Boyd or Taylor Cole.


   Dunedin opened their season by spoiling the Phillies affiliate's home opener, topping their neighbour Clearwater Threshers, 5-2.   Jairo Labourt started the game for the D-Jays, and was lights out in the early going:

Labourt 93-95 in the 1st, touched 96 a few times. Working away with FB-CH combo #BlueJays
— Chris King (@StatsKing) April 9, 2015

  Labourt lost a bit of velocity in the 6th, and gave up some hard contact, but the start was encouraging.  Labourt started last year with Lansing, but struggled with his command, and was snet back to extended spring training to regroup, and he rediscovered his control when he was shipped out to Vancouver in June.  In 5.1 innings, Labourt gave up 5 hits, a pair of runs, and walked one.  He struck out 3, including rehabbing Phillies outfielder Dom Brown twice.   The Blue Jays own rehabber, Michael Saunders, was 0-3, but was robbed by Clearwater OF Aaron Brown, who brought a home run back over the fence.

   Mitch Nay, Dawel Lugo, and Matt Dean all went deep for Dunedin.  The trio hit a collective total of 16 Home Runs in the tough hitter's parks of the Midwest League last year, and while the Florida State League can be tough on hitters as well, perhaps this is the year that the power that has been prophesized for all three might be realized.

   And it only took four innings for the first triple play in all of baseball to be registered when Dean grounded into a 5-4-3 triple killing.

   Lansing's home opener is tonight, but they opened the newly renovated Cooley Law Stadium with their annual Crosstown Showdown against Michigan State.  The Lugs topped the Spartans 9-4. Lansing traditionally brings in pitchers from the lower levels to pitch this game, in order to save the regular pitching staff members for league play.  Lansing broadcaster recalled a game from a couple of years ago:

@Clutchlings77 In 2012, the Spartans had to face Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna and Daniel Norris. Good luck with that!
— Jesse G-S (@jgoldstrass) April 9, 2015

   Lansing used a quintet of pitchers in this game.  2014 8th round pick Justin Shafer started the game, and after giving up 3 runs in the first inning, settled down to strike out the side in the second.  Conner Greene, a 7th round pick in 2013 who has some acting credits to his name, pitched a scoreless third and fourth inning.  Chase Wellbrock, a 33rd round pick last year, pitched the fifth and gave up a run and struck out two.  Jesus Tinoco and Sean Reid-Foley each pitched scoreless, two K innings to finish the seven-inning contest.  All pitchers should start at Vancouver this year, although there are rumblings that Greene will be staying in Michigan.
  On the offensive side of things for Lansing, 1B Ryan McBroom was 2-2 with a double and a solo shot to open the scoring in the 2nd, and SS Richard Urena hit a solo blast as well.
   The Lugnuts open their Midwest League season against Lake County tonight in Lansing, with the repeating Chase De Jong taking the mound.

   It's shaping up to be a great minor league season.  The Bisons, for now, have a mostly veteran roster, so even though I hope to see them a few times this summer, my focus will be on New Hampshire, Dunedin, and Lansing for now, then expand to the short season teams in June.  I tweet regular updates about probably pitchers and 140 character game summaries.  If you don't follow me, I'm @Clutchlings77 on Twitter.

   A late note:  today's Bisons game has been postponed due to wind.


 

Blue Jays Prospects: Who Could Contribute This Year?

   A Twitter follower asked us if we could come up with a list of prospects not named Daniel Norris or Dalton Pompey who we thought might make a contribution with the Blue Jays in 2015.
   That's a tough task, given that the club's top two hopefuls (Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman) not only had lengthy stays on the 25 man roster last year, they also made significant contributions to the club, and Norris and Pompey are likely to have a similar impact at some point next year.  Of all the prospects in the Blue Jays system, there is only one who might have any kind of similar impact in 2015:

Miguel Castro, RHP
   The one player who could make an Aaron Sanchez-like impact is this tall, skinny Dominican hurler.
   Castro regularly hits 98 on the gun and touches 100 with his fastball. Northwest League hitters were over matched against him, so he was promoted to Lansing and then Dunedin before season's end.
   The knock against Castro, as has been well documented, is that his secondary pitches grade as average at best. He will likely start at Dunedin and be moved to New Hampshire if he continues to have the kind of success he has had to date.  If his offspeed repertoire has not advanced enough, AA hitters will likely make him pay for it - if they can get around on his fastball.
  Alex Anthopolous himself has suggested that we may see Castro in the Toronto bullpen this summer.  If his first few starts at AA are rough ones, we don't think the club would hesitate to make the switch, and have him follow a conversion similar to that of Sanchez - a couple of Milb relief appearances, and a promotion to the bigs by mid-summer.
  As much as we would like the club to give Castro every chance to prove he can be a starter this year, and given the status of the current Toronto pen, this plan makes a lot of sense.
   MLB.com gives us a glimpse of the 19 year old:

 So, the following players are ones who we think have an outside shot at making an appearance at some point in the major leagues this year, but their impact will likely be less dramatic.

Ryan Tepera, RHP
   A middling starter for much of his career since being chosen by Toronto in the 19th round of the 2009 draft, Tepera's fortunes began to change when the organization moved him to a bullpen role with New Hampshire in 2013.
   Left off the 40 man roster and eligible for the Rule 5 draft last fall, Marc Hulett named Tepera as his top selection.  Luckily, all 30 MLB teams passed on him, and Tepera pitched in relief for Buffalo last season.  His numbers were not overwhelming, but he struck out slightly more than a batter per inning, and had a decent BB/K ratio.
   Tepera has hit 96 with his fastball, and has a sinker with good downward action.  The Blue Jays thought enough of him that they put him on the 40 man just before the November deadline this year, in order to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.  We can't see him breaking camp with the big team in April, but we can see him with the club at some point, especially if there are any bullpen meltdowns.
  You won't get a strike out the side type of power arm with Tepera, but what you will get is a pitcher who throws strikes, and pounds the lower part of the strike zone.  His likely role with the club would be in long relief, doing a Chad Jenkins-like Toronto-Buffalo QEW Shuffle.


Chad Jenkins, RHP
   We can't really think of the 2009 1st rounder as a prospect anymore, but the truth is that he pitched well for the club in a variety of roles last year, including emergency starter and first guy out of the pen.
  Jenkins is not a flamethrower, barely topping 91 with his fastball.  What he does is keep the ball down, essential for any Rogers Centre pitcher:

  Jenkins has one year of options remaining, so it's likely that he will continue in his role as a fill-in, cross the Peace Bridge multiple times guy.  He can make a contribution, but it will most likely be in an emergency role.

AJ Jimenez, C
   Once a fringe Top 10 prospect, Jimenez has fallen off the radar due to an inability to stay healthy over the past two years, and growing concerns about his bat.
   Having watched a fair bit of him, he has the makings of a premium backstop.  Lithe and athletic, his moves behind the plate are cat-like.  He is adept at blocking balls in the dirt, and is a good handler of pitchers - he's caught a fair amount of Stroman, Sanchez, and a bit of Norris.
   At the plate, Jimenez has a line drive stroke, but doesn't project to hit for much power.  He doesn't walk or strikeout out a whole lot:

 

MLBfarm.com

    The signing of Russell Martin, of course, was not good news for Jimenez.  With Josh Thole firmly ensconced as RA Dickey's catcher, there would appear to be no room for Jimenez, who is heading into his final year of options.  If Martin proves successful at catching Dickey's knuckler, or if he gets injured, a spot might open up for Jimenez.  With Max Pentecost and Danny Jansen on their way up the system, Jimenez's time with the organization might be limited, anyway.  If he were to make a contribution to the club this year, it would be in a reserve role.

Andy Burns, 3B

   Burns was the surprise of the organization last year, playing at A+ and AA before finishing off his season in fine style in the Arizona Fall League.

  A slow start cost him a chance at advancement this year.  Burns hit .200/.261/.294 in April, and .223/.317/.359 in May before finally heating up, and finishing the year at .255/.315/.430.  

   He played mostly 3rd this year at AA, but Burns has the athleticism to play a variety of positions both infield and outfield.  The Blue Jays played him at five positions in Arizona, as it looks like they are priming him to be a super utility player.  With things more or less open in the competition for the 2nd base job with Toronto at spring training, it will be interesting to see where the club decides to play Burns, who will likely play at Buffalo.  

  If injuries and/or inconsistency open up a spot for a player who can play a variety of positions, Burns could get an audition.

Jon Berti, 2B, Devon Travis 2B
   The acquisition of Travis  pushes Berti down the depth chart.  Berti projects to have plus speed, but the question is if he will get on base enough to take advantage of it.  Berti drew good reviews for his play against top calibre competition in the Arizona Fall League.
   Travis, similar to Kevin Pillar, has hit just about everywhere he has played, but like Pillar has more than his fair share of detractors.  He will likely start the season at Buffalo, with Berti returning to New Hampshire.  The need for some offence at the position on the big club is so huge that we can easily see one of the pair get a trial in the majors if they get off to a blazing start.
   With his speed, Berti profiles more as a leadoff hitter, although he posted his lowest walk rate in four years of pro ball last year at AA.  Travis is projected to be more of a bat will play kind of guy, likely in the bottom third of the order.
 


   And that's about it.  Farm systems tend to be cyclical in nature, so this year may be a bit of a down year in terms of producing players who can make a significant impact at the major league level.  As we have written before, with over half of the system's depth a Low A or lower, and with 3 of its top 20 prospects traded in the Josh Donaldson deal, it will take at least another year to produce any more top level talent.

Scouring the Bargain Bins at the Rule 5 Draft

   Baseball's Rule 5 draft used to have great significance, and added fuel to the Hot Stove embers.
Teams that tried to sneak an eligible player through the draft would get creative in where and how they hid them, while teams like the Blue Jays would get equally creative in the lengths they would go to uncover them.
  The draft has had many incarnations over the years, but the main purpose of it remains to give long-serving minor leaguers an opportunity to reach the bigs with another organization, and to keep teams from stockpiling talent.
   To draft an eligible player, the team acquiring him must pay $50 000.  The player must be kept on the team's 25 man roster for the entire season.  If the drafting team changes their mind on said player, he must be offered back to his original club for $25 000.
  The Rule 5 draft used to remind me of the bargain bins at Coles, when the bookstore chain once was in every mall of every size in our fair country (that country being Canada, of course).  Everything in the bins was under $5, and once in a while you would score a huge bargain.  Author/musician Dave Bidini's Baseballissimo was an informative and entertaining account of a summer Bidini spent following an Italian semi-pro team.  John Grisham is widely known for his legal thrillers, but he stepped outside of the courtroom to pen Playing for Pizza, a fictional account of a back up quarterback who somehow got into an NFL game, and put on such a poor performance that he was exiled to the Italian Pro (and we use that term loosely) Football League.  I have long wanted to travel to Italy to take a cycling holiday and visit the grave of a Great Uncle who was killed in WWII.  After reading Grisham's book, I now want to go for the food too. His descriptions of the post game meals were reason enough to read the book.
   But the reason those books wound up in the bin, with all due respect to the authors, is that no one wanted them, or maybe they were beyond their shelf life.  Same with players in the Rule 5 draft.  Their current organizations either didn't see enough progress or projection to place them on the 40 man roster.
 
   The rule 5 draft is open to players who:

-are not on their major league organization's 40-man roster (as of November 20th), and:

– were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming; or

– were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.

   Up until 2007, teams were only allowed four and three years for the above players.  With the extra year of eligibility, clubs now have more time to make a more informed decision about their players, and fewer impact players are exposed to the draft as a result.
   The increased number of pitchers, particularly relievers, a team uses each year has gone steadily up as well.  We've used an admittedly arbitrary benchmark of 20 appearances for a pitcher over the course of almost 30 seasons.   In 1985, the Blue Jays had 10 pitchers who pitched in at least that many games.  In 1995, it was 10 as well, 12 by 2005, and 14 last year.  Injuries and how the team used its bullpen certainly figured into those numbers, but the trend clearly shows that the club has carried more pitchers (usually 12) now compared to an average of 10 thirty years ago.  With the decreased number of position players on the roster, teams can no longer afford to draft a rule 5 player and keep him on the bench for most of the season, like the Blue Jays did with youngsters Manny Lee and Lou Thornton in 1985.
   A pitcher can be stashed away (somewhat) in a bullpen, and only used in specific situations, which is likely why 69 of the 93 players chosen since 2008 have been pitchers.  21 players were selected in the draft in the first year after the rule change, and has steadily dwindled to a low of 9 last year.  Over 50% of the players selected during that time were returned to their original clubs.
   The Blue Jays for the past several years have taken a very conservative approach with their minor league players, particularly high school pitchers.  They have taken a more aggressive route with some of the organization's top prospects, but draftees still typically spend between 1 and 2 years in short season ball (more for international prospects, many of whom are signed at 16 or 17), and progress up the ladder one rung at a time, meaning that it often takes 4 or 5 years just to move beyond A ball.  As a result, of the 23 (by our count - we may be off by one or two either way) Toronto minor leaguers who are newly eligible for this year's draft, only two (relievers Blake McFarland and the injured John Stilson), have spent any significant time above High A.  We should add, of course, that players who were not put on the 40 man roster in previous years, and still have not been placed on it this year are eligible as well.

   So, who is likely to be taken from the Blue Jays list of eligible players?  Well, most who haven't played above A are not, and neither is Ricky Romero, who is owed $7.5 million this year and a $13.1 million team option with a $600K buyout for 2016 (we think we know which way that's headed), after knee surgery in June ended a season in which he had walked 42 batters in 38 AAA innings.  Another who won't be taken is righthander Ryan Tepera, who was added to the 40-man at the November 20th deadline.  A starter for his first five years in the system, Tepera was converted to relief this year, and quietly had a good season in Buffalo, striking out 67 in 64 IP.  He likely would've been scooped up if he hadn't been added.
    Baseball America's JJ Cooper took a look across the minors to see who might be most likely to be bargain bin scoops, and he identifies three Blue Jays who teams may take a flyer on:  Stilson, and relievers Tyler Ybarra and Gregory Infante.
   Stilson is coming off his second shoulder surgery since 2011, but hit 97 for Buffalo this year, and sat between 93-95.  If not for his shoulder woes, he might have taken up residence in the Blue Jays bullpen.  Rule 5 players have to spend 90 days on an MLB roster, but he can spend time on the disabled list.  The risk, of course, is that there are no guarantees for a player in Stilson's position, and if teams likely won't want to have to pay for subsequent operations if the most recent was unsuccessful.  Toronto is likely banking on that, and it's highly unlikely that Stilson will be taken.
  Infante hit 100 on the radar gun for New Hampshire this year, but he tends to have little movement on his fastball, and often catches too much of the strike zone.  Still, he pitched well in AA and AAA, and when BA's prospect report lands in our inbox every morning of late, he's often had another good outing in Venezuela.  Infante has had a go of major league life already, having made his debut with the White Sox in 2010.  He might be worth a gamble.
  Ybarra can light up the radar gun, too.  The lefthander sits between 94 and 97, and after overmatching High A hitters last year, Ybarra was roughed up a bit at AA, struggling with command (30 BB in 53 innings), and he gave up 8 home runs.  All 29 other MLB teams passed on him last year, and it's likely that they will again this year, too.
  Cooper didn't make mention of lefty John Anderson, who was exposed to the 2013 draft, but wasn't chosen.  Anderson struck out 72 in 68 innings with New Hampshire this year.  The huge red flag with Anderson is the pair of Tommy John surgeries he had within 15 months of each other earlier in his career. Still, he's averaged more than a K per inning since resuming his career in 2013.  With his injury history, being selected this year is still unlikely.
   The Blue Jays, for their part, have largely eschewed the Rule 5 draft during the Alex Anthopolous era.  The only player they have selected since 2010 was lefthanded reliever Brian Moran last year from Seattle, who they promptly traded to the Angels for International bonus pool money, in effect getting something for relatively nothing.
   A player who is intriguing and will be available in the draft this year is Astros prospect Delino DeShields.  The offspring of the former MLBer by the same name.  DeShields has richly deserved a reputation as a problem child, having been benched multiple times for giving less than a full effort on the field.  The 8th overall pick in the 2008 has the best tools in this draft (he has Milb's only 10-100 season ever, hitting 12HRs and stealing 101 bases in 2012), but after hitting .236/.346/.360 in AA this year, he may still be a few years away.  DeShields plays an adequate centre field, and can also play second.  He's a huge gamble, but given the Blue Jays troubles at the latter position, and their penchant for rolling the dice with premium athletes, we could see them taking DeShields and giving him spring training to see if he could make the leap.
  There are some interesting power arms in this year's draft, but the Blue Jays likely are content with the supply of such pitchers they already have.  The draft takes place on December 11th.

  We wrote about the Rule 5 Draft and how the Blue Jays used it to acquire one of the best players in team history, and you can read about it here.
  You can read JJ Cooper's BA article here.