Perspective on the Josh Donaldson Trade - One Year Later

Franklin Barreto
recordnet.com photo

  I remember it like it was just yesterday:  word came out via Twitter on a Friday night in late November that the Blue Jays had acquired Josh Donaldson from the Athletics, in return for Brett Lawrie and a package of minor leaguers.
   As someone who follows the day-by-day progress of players in the Blue Jays system, I held my breath a bit to see who would be in that package.  It was easy to figure that a top prospect would be going to the West Coast, with maybe some mid-level guys included.  Daniel Norris was the obvious first name to come to mind, but it was a bit surprising to see Franklin Barreto as the player the Athletics wanted in return. After a scintillating 2014, Norris was MLB-ready, or close to it.  Barreto, the Northwest League MVP at the tender age of 18, was still a couple of years away from making his MLB debut, and it's hard to see most GM's thinking that far into the future.  Except Billy Beane is not most GMs, and obviously felt the young Venezuelan, whose ultimate position in the majors is still a question, was willing to wait.
   Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin were not huge surprises.  Graveman had a 2014 that was the equal of Norris' in terms of ascent, but the feeling likely was that he had reached his ceiling, and the Blue Jays already had a fair stock of back-of-the-rotation arms.  Nolin, whose inability to stay healthy had to have cost him in terms of prospect status, was a bit of a victim of a numbers game, with fellow southpaws Norris, Matt Boyd, and Jairo Labourt all ahead of him.  Lefty starters in the Blue Jays system now, of course, are something of an endangered species.
   And while it was sad to see a good Canadian boy like Lawrie go, it was fairly plain to see that the club had run out of patience with his injury-riddled, underachieving ways.  Since his debut, he had shown flashes of brilliance, but on the whole had underwhelmed with his performance.  His departure, along with that of Barreto, served to remind that baseball players are assets, and if a GM feels he can improve his roster by dealing one or more of them, he will do it.
    Of the package of prospects, Barreto was the prospect I found the most difficult to see depart.  I had followed his progress since he signed with the organization in 2012, followed his progress in the GCL in 2013.  When he was called up to Bluefield late that season, Clinton Hollon, who had been promoted along with Barreto, tweeted about how young Frankie, who was still not all that fluent in English, was wandering around the Tampa airport, unsure of how, where, or when he was going to catch his flight to the Appalachians.  The following season, he was the top player in a league filled with recent college grads 3 and 4 years older than himself.  The sky appeared to be the limit, and even though I had yet to see him play live, when friends and followers asked which prospect excited me the most, it was this teenaged Venezuelan.

   You can't argue about the return the Blue Jays got for that package of players, of course.  Donaldson became only the 2nd player in club history to capture an MVP award, and his season stands with George Bell's 1987 and Carlos Delgado's 2003, and Jose Bautista's 2010 campaigns as the best by a position player since the Blue Jays' inception.  It's hard to know where to start when talking about Donaldson's season.  He was the first player to score over 120 runs and drive in as many since Albert Pujols in 2009. And he didn't just do it with the bat, either:  his 11.4 Defensive Runs Saved ranked 3rd in all of MLB.  His fiery, dive into the stands for a foul ball competitive spirit helped lift the team to its first playoff berth in 22 years.

   Lawrie was considered one of the top prospects in baseball when the Blue Jays acquired him for Shaun Marcum before the 2011 season.  The only blemish on Lawrie's resume was a question about where he would play - drafted out of a Vancouver-area HS as a catcher, he was converted to a 2nd Baseman by the Brewers.  The Blue Jays moved him to 3rd, and packed him off to their-then AAA affiliate in Las Vegas.  He made his MLB debut in August, and gave fans starved for a homegrown star plenty to dream about with his .293/.373/.580 line in 43 games.
   Lawrie just could not stay off the Disabled List after that, playing 125 games the following year, but only 107 in 2013, and 70 in his final year in Toronto.  His numbers tailed off in each successive year as well, and by 2014 the former 1st round pick was barely a league average player.
   What happened to a player of such promise?  For starters, Lawrie did not fit the power profile of a corner bat, and it's curious to know why Toronto felt he could be.  He did hit 18 Home Runs in the rarefied air of Las Vegas over a little more than half a minor league season, but his slugging totals never put him in the top tier of Hot Cornermen.  Did he know that, and press harder to overcome that, or did the pressure of playing in front of his fellow Canucks cause him to try too hard in a game where sometimes less is more?  Whatever the case, Lawrie's walk rates trended down every year during his time in the blue and white, and his strikeout rate went the opposite direction.  Either through his own over-aggressiveness, or by pitchers challenging him from the start, he had 0-1 counts almost 65% of the time, meaning that he was more often than not facing pitchers; counts.  More of a line drive than a fly ball hitter,  Lawrie was never able to take advantage of the Rogers Centre's hitter-friendly dimensions.  Unlike Jose Bautista (who posted the lowest line drive rate among all MLB hitters this year at 13.9%), or even Donaldson, Lawrie was not able to add some loft to his swing and put some balls into the Rogers Centre jetstream.
   Lawrie's numbers did not figure to improve in the spacious O.co Coliseum, and they didn't in 2015, although he played in a career-high 149 games, 25 better than his high with the Blue Jays.  His steady descent into the realm of a replacement-level player continued, however.  Lawrie's OBP and OPS were both below league average, and his Walk and K rates put him among the lowest contact makers in the game. His defence was not a saving grace, either, as his -8.7 Defensive Runs Saved ranking put him ahead of only the largely immobile Pablo Sandoval among MLB 3rd Basemen. Lawrie did establish career highs in Home Runs (16) and RBIs (60).

   Graveman is who he is - a back of the rotation arm who has the potential to eat up some innings.  In a bit of an up and down year, he made the team out of spring training, was sent down for a month of AAA action at the end of April, and was back to stay for good in June.  Graveman went on a two-month run following his return to the bigs, posting a 2.01 ERA in 8 starts.  A strained oblique put him on the DL in late August, and the Athletics opted not to bring him back with the team out of contention.
  Graveman had a respectable 50% Ground ball rate, but gave up a lot of medium and hard contact (81.6%), and not much (15.4%) of the soft variety.  Simply put, he didn't miss as many bats in the big leagues as he did in his rise through the minors last year.  He has to be considered a strong candidate to land a mid-rotation job again next year.  Graveman is very athletic, and is capable of making the adjustments necessary to avoid barrels on a greater basis than he did in 2015.

   Nolin was unable to remain healthy in 2015, tossing only 47 AAA innings before getting a September call-up.  He pitched reasonably well in 6 starts, but his velocity was in the mid-80s, and he had trouble limiting his walks, giving up 12 in 26 innings.  Once upon a time, he profiled as one of those innings eaters, but over the past several years, the innings have eaten him.  The 119 innings he threw at several levels (including the Arizona Fall League) last year is the highest total he's managed since turning pro in 2010.  It's hard to see Nolin being anything than a fringy major leaguer at this point, unless he can stay healthy long enough to see some regular work.

   Which brings us to Barreto, the likely centrepiece of the deal from Oakland's perspective.  Skipping Low A, Barreto played at High A Stockton this year, and overcame a slow start and injuries which limited him to 90 games to post a decent line of .302/.333/.500.  And while there was some concern about the consistency of his swing, it's important to remember that Barreto was playing in his first year of full-season ball at the age of 19.
   Barreto was a much-heralded youth player in his native Venezuela, and was already well-known in baseball circles when the Blue Jays signed him in 2012.  He was ranked the Northwest League's Top Prospect last season, when he also cracked Baseball America's Top 100 for the first time.  This year, he had made it all the way up to the Top 25 (at 22nd), and was named the California League's 2nd Top Prospect.  A position switch is drawing very near for Barreto, who has neither the footwork or arm to stick at Short - his Venezuelan League team has played him in the Outfield during this winter league season.  Just the same, he barrels up balls frequently, and still profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat.

   Who "won" the trade, then?

Obviously, Toronto.  Barreto is a future blue chipper, Lawrie may still turn things around (he's only 25), and Graveman and maybe even Nolin will give the Athletics some innings.  But Donaldson was almost a 9 WAR player this year, and with another year of team control will provide a 2016 of similar value.  And even if you wait the customary 3-4 years to judge a trade, Toronto will still have gotten the better of Oakland. Donaldson has proven to be a franchise player - one whose impact on the team was felt on and off the field. He set an example not only to his teammates, but to all players in the organization with his work ethic - only a week into Spring Training last year, I asked Anthony Alford, who was in his first big league spring camp with the team, who impressed him the most, and he said Donaldson without hesitation.  Barreto was likely the centerpiece of the deal from an Oakland perspective, so to be fair, we have to say that Toronto won the deal for now.  Breaking a two decades-plus playoff drought is the added component to evaluating this trade. No disrespect to Lawrie, but this team probably does not break through even with him in the lineup for 149 games.  Donaldson brought a desire to win that seemed, to a fan, to be lacking in previous years - a penchant for clutch hits, daring baserunning, and diving into the stands that lit a serious fire under this team, and only intensified when the club was drastically upgraded at the trade deadline.

   In many ways, the deal captured the essence of both  Alex Anthopoulos and Beane.  The former, who espoused the roll-the-dice strategy when it came to trades and draft picks, opted to patiently build up the farm system, and then use its depth to strengthen the big club.  The latter showed that he's not afraid to deal a player whose affordability window is rapidly closing, even if it's likely that player will succeed with his new team.  Both, of course, are no longer GMs, with Beane now running the baseball side from the executive suite in Oakland, and Anthopoulos looking for a similar gig elsewhere.  There's little doubt that both would probably make that deal again.

   If re-signing David Price is the first task of the new management team of Tony LaCava and Mark Shapiro, locking up Donaldson to a long-term deal should be the second.  Or maybe even the first.

First Sip of the Rule 5 Draft

   Baseball's Rule 5 draft has often been less than the sum of its parts.
Some intriguing names get offered up every year, but teams rarely, if ever, take a chance on them.
For the uninitiated, the Rule 5 draft actually goes back to the 1950s, when it was instituted to prevent teams from signing hot young prospects to huge bonuses, then stockpile those prospects in the minors for years.  It has undergone many revisions, but the main intent is to give a deadline for teams to put their prospects on a 40-man roster, in order to give those players an opportunity.
   The draft can be risky - teams must keep players they draft on their 25-man roster for an entire season, or offer them back to their original organization for half the $50 000 price tag they came with.
   Players are eligible for the December 10th Rule 5 draft if by the deadline (Friday, November 20th):

-they are not on their team's 40-man roster prior to the draft;
-were 18 or younger on the June 5th preceding their signing, and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft since that signing;
-were 19 or older, and this is their fourth Rule 5 draft.

   Prior to 2007, teams had four and three years to protect players.  The extra year has allowed most teams to take their players' development slower - many players in the draft have yet to play past AA.
   The draft has a fairly lengthy history.  Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente was one of the first Rule 5 draftees.  More recently, Johan Santana, Jason Werth, Bobby Bonilla, and some young Dominican prospect named Jose Bautista were selected.  The Blue Jays, for their part, have a lengthy history on Rule 5 day.  In 1977, they grabbed a young 1st Baseman from the Yankees organization by the name of Willie Upshaw, who went on to play an important role as the team broke into contention in the mid-80s.  Kelly Gruber and Manny Lee, who later acquired World Series rings with the team, were Rule 5 pick ups.  And perhaps one of the best hitters in club history, George Bell, was stolen out from under the nose of the Phillies in a great story of cloak-and-dagger work.
   The Rule 5 draft has fallen on some fallen times of late.  With most teams employing two more pitchers than they did twenty years ago, many can't afford to draft a position player who may have to spend the year glued to the bench.  Relief pitchers are somewhat less of a gamble, which is why 69 of the player selected between 2008 and last year were pitchers who wound up in the bullpen - and at that, half of those players were returned to their original team.  The Blue Jays have been mostly quiet during the last few years of the draft.  Pitcher Zech Zinicola was taken from the Nationals in 2009, but returned before spring training the following spring was over.  In 2013, they chose P Brian Moran from the Mariners, but sent him to the Angels for International pool money.
    Last year was called a banner year for Rule 5 draftees.  The Mets picked up Sean Gilmartin, the Phillies Odubel Herrera, the Athletics Mark Canha, and the Rangers acquired Delino DeShields Jr.  
    Because of Alex Anthopoulos' trade deadline frenzy, there is a smaller than usual number of Blue Jays prospects eligible.  Among those who may be exposed to the draft for the first time are:

Dwight Smith Jr OF
   The 2011 Ist Round Supplemental pick has moved steadily through the system, drawing good reviews wherever he's played.  He battled injuries this year, posting a line of .265/.335/.376 at New Hampshire. Smith does have enough pop for a corner outfield position, and the organization experimented with him at 2nd Base in the Arizona Fall League in 2014.  It's hard to see a team risking as 25-man spot on a player who has had one season at AA, so he's not highly likely to be put on the 40-man, although it's not out of the realm of possibility to see him in the Majors one day.

Matt Dean  1B/DH
   Dean's 14 Home Runs in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is an accomplishment worthy of noting, but he's a long shot to have a big league career at this point.  The 2013 Appy League batting champ also struck out 139 times in 521 PAs this year, so there's plenty of miss to his approach.  It won't be a risk to expose him to the draft.

Tom Robson P
   The BC native made his return from Tommy John surgery mid way through the summer, and reports on his velocity were good.  Command, not so much.  Robson is a potential sleeper arm, and if he refines that command next season, he will definitely be a 40-man candidate.  This year, however, he'll be left unprotected.  He's pitched only 26 innings above Low A so far in his career.

From 2014, the Blue Jays currently have a few players to make decisions upon:

Andy Burns  IF
   Burns hit .293/.351/.372 in 126 games with Buffalo this season, playing primarily 2nd and 3rd.  Drafted as a SS, he can also play 1B and the outfield, which helps boost his value.  In this age of dozen-man pitching staffs, there is a premium on bench players who can play a multiple of positions.   Burns should be added to the 40-man later this week.

Taylor Cole RHP
   Cole was considered one of the minor's top fringe prospects last year, when a 11.66 K/9 rate at Dunedin opened some eyes.  He did not miss bats at the same rate at AA this year.  Cole throws a fastball that tops out at 91, but has a change that can be devastating.  The surprise here is that the Blue Jays have not cut down on his repertoire and treid him in the bullpen as they did with Ryan Tepera.  Cole is a considerable longshot, but it's possible a team that views him as first righty up in the pen kind of guy may take a chance on him.

Blake McFarland  RHP
   A talented artist as well as an emerging  late-blooming (at 27) power arm, McFarland has pitched out of the pen for the last four seasons, and only a log jam of arms at Buffalo kept him at AA for most of the year, where he dominated Eastern League hitters, walking only 6 and striking out 62 in 47 innings.  He's a likely candidate to claim one of those final 40-man spots.

John Stilson RHP
   The Blue Jays gambled and left the hard-throwing, but oft-injured Stilson unprotected last November, and no one took a chance on his surgically repaired (and not for the first time) right shoulder.  Stilson has averaged almost a K per inning in four minor league seasons, but has missed time due to injury in almost every single one of them.  He made only one appearance for Dunedin this year in May, before being shut down for the remainder of the season.  If not for his health issues, Stilson would have been placed on the 40-man and made his MLB debut long ago.  If teams were a bit spooked by him last year, they will be downright scared this year.

Dickie Joe Thon UT
   The son of the former big leaguer of the same name was a 5th round choice in 2010.  He has moved slowly through the system, repeating Lansing last year because of a glut of middle infielders ahead of him.  Promoted to Dunedin, he filled a utility role, but struggled with the bat.  He played for Puerto Rico at the Premier12 tournament in Taiwan.  There is no chance a team will select him.

Danny Barnes RHP
   A 35th round pick out of Princeton won't get a lot of fanfare or move very quickly in an organization, but Barnes was on the fast track after saving 34 games for Lansing in 2012.  Barnes lost 2013 to Tommy John surgery, however, and had mixed results with Dunedin in 2014 as he tried to rediscover his command.  It came back with a flourish in AA this year, striking out 74 in 60 innings.  Barnes does not light up the radar gun, but he gets the job done.  If he is not protected, there's not an overwhelming chance that he will be selected, but some teams might be tempted by his career minor league 12.0K/9, and over 4:1 K:BB ratio.


   As of this writing, there are 7 spots open on the Blue Jays 40-man roster after a number of moves earlier this month.  It's likely some names will be added after Friday deadline - some from within the organization, and some from outside.

Examining the Blue Jays 2010 Draft

Alex Anthopoulos/Andrew Tinnish
Brock University photo

   Given that it takes a player, on average, 3-5 years to break into the major leagues, it's a good time to look back on the 2010 draft from a Blue Jays perspective.

   Baseball America studied every MLB draft from 1987 (when the draft went from being held twice yearly to only once) to 2008, and found that about 1 in 6 players drafted played at least a game in the Major Leagues.
   The chances of a player making the bigs went from 73% for a 1st rounder during that time period, to a 6.8% chance for players selected after the 21st round.  A player chosen in the first round also had a 39% chance of playing at least three years in the majors, dropping to less than 2% for those late rounders.
   Despite this day and age of analytics and technology, baseball's annual draft is something of a crapshoot.  Selecting first rounders has become easier, primarily thanks to showcase events like those held by Perfect Game, which give scouts more opportunities to see a prospect in action.
   And scouting high school and college players is only one source of potential players for an organization.  The International Free Agent market is also one where teams can find players, as well as other teams' minor league systems.  Japan has long been a supplier of talent, and Korea seems poised to begin sending players as well.  Then there is Cuba, which is a talent keg MLB teams are all too ready to tap as the Obama Administration has brought about a thawing of relations.
   Five years after the draft, most players are just beginning to make a contribution, and for only a handful of them is that a significant one.  Perhaps the best way to truly evaluate each draft is to wait a longer period before examining them, but who has time for that?

   The 2010 draft was Alex Anthopoulos' first as the Blue Jays GM.  His predecessor, J.P. Ricciardi, had long demonstrated a preference for drafting signable college players with his top picks since taking the helm in 2001 - he did veer from that policy in his last few seasons, but from 2001 to 2009, Toronto selected a total of only 15 High School players with their top 10 draft picks, and they went from 2003 to 2005 without selecting a single HS player with any of their first 10 choices.
   The result of that was that Toronto had a number of players who reached the majors quickly (Gabe Gross, Russ Adam, Curtis Thigpen), but reached their limited ceilings quickly, and had short MLB careers.  In terms of Wins Above Replacement, the Blue Jays ranked in the middle of the pack in a study of MLB drafts from 2002-11 by J.P. Breen of Fangraphs:

Team	Total WAR	Average WAR
Boston Red Sox	100.3	4.36
San Francisco Giants	97.9	2.88
Los Angeles Dodgers	95.5	3.98
Milwaukee Brewers	86	3.91
Tampa Bay Rays	80.2	4.46
Detroit Tigers	78.7	2.25
Atlanta Braves	70.9	3.22
Oakland Athletics	70.8	2.83
Kansas City Royals	65.2	2.61
Cincinnati Reds	64.5	2.58
Colorado Rockies	63.7	2.45
Los Angeles Angels	60.2	2.15
Miami Marlins	59.1	1.48
Minnesota Twins	58	2.64
Washington Nationals	57.7	2.31
Arizona Diamondbacks	57.6	2.22
Toronto Blue Jays	54.8	2.19
Texas Rangers	48.7	2.32
San Diego Padres	44.7	1.44
Baltimore Orioles	41.5	1.73
Pittsburgh Pirates	40.3	2.02
New York Yankees	34.7	1.73
St. Louis Cardinals	30.9	0.97
New York Mets	30.8	1.62
Philadelphia Phillies	30.2	1.78
Houston Astros	24.2	1.51
Chicago Cubs	19.3	0.92
Cleveland Indians	15.5	0.65
Chicago White Sox	11.9	0.54
Seattle Mariners	8.9	0.45

    That study overlapped the Anthopoulos and Ricciardi eras, but most of the Wins accumulated were by the former's amateur scouting department.  No matter how you look at it, their mediocrity at the draft table, coupled with their virtual absence on the IFA scene doomed the Blue Jays to a decade of second division finished that spilled over into Anthopoulos' tenure.

    The 2010 draft was much-anticipated because of the presence of the equally anticipated presence of Bryce Harper, who promised to be a generational talent, and with 19.8 WAR so far in his career, is holding true to that projection.  Also selected in the first round was Manny Machado and Matt Harvey, who have proven to be cornerstones for the Orioles and Mets, respectively.
   When Anthopoulos took over, he made a number of changes to the scouting department.  Wyevale, Ontario's own Jon Lalonde, a graduate of Laurentian University's Sports Administration program, was moved from director of amateur scouting, a position he had held for most of Ricciardi's reign, to director of pro scouting.  Taking the reigns for the draft was fellow Canuck Andrew Tinnish, a Blue Jays staffer since beginning with the organization as an intern in 2001.  And the change in philosophy was a huge departure from the Ricciardi era almost from the start.  With 8 of the first 93 picks, the Blue Jays were poised to become a much deeper and improved organization in a hurry.
     Toronto's 1st pick, at 10th overall, on the surface, did not look like such a radical departure.  Georgia Tech starter Deck McGuire had something of an up-and-down collegiate career.  Baseball America did acknowledge that:

 He's an excellent competitor who doesn't fold up with runners on base. He's a proven college winner with a good track record of performance and durability; similar prospects rarely last through the first half of the first round.

   So, it McGuire's selection could be viewed as a safe one.  At the same time, his selection also showed that the Blue Jays were about to demonstrate a preference for their pitchers:  tall (McGuire is 6'6"), lean, and athletic.  McGuire, of course, has yet to reach the majors.  After a promising rookie season in High A, McGuire spent four seasons at AA, where he didn't miss a lot of bats.  After a few decent starts with Buffalo in 2014, he reverted to form, and the Blue Jays sold him to the Athletics July 25th, 2014.  The A's released him at the end of spring training this year, and after catching on with the Dodgers, was granted free agency earlier this month.
    McGuire, despite his lack of success, was a safe selection.  Florida Gulf Coast LHP Chris Sale was still on the board, however, when McGuire was selected.  Luckily, the Jays rolled the dice and wound up more than making up for it with their subsequent picks.  With the 34th pick in the compensation round, Toronto selected California HS RHP Aaron Sanchez, described by many as raw but projectable.  Four picks later, they chose Texas HS RHP Noah Syndergaard.  With the 41st choice, the Blue Jays dipped back into the college ranks to take The Citadel RHP Asher Wojciechowski.  Sanchez battled command issues as a starter in the minors before being converted to relief in 2014, and he was a revelation in the Blue Jays bullpen after making his debut in July.  Put back into the rotation for 2015, Sanchez was sidelined by injury in June, and moved back to the pen upon his return.  All indications are that he will get another shot at starting next Spring Training.
   Syndergaard, of course, was part of the package used to pry Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from the Mets.  He made his MLB debut this year, and only one other player in the majors threw more pitches 95+ than he did.  Wojciechowski, sent to the Astros in the J.A. Happ deal, also made his MLB debut this summer.
   The Toronto scouting department went back to selecting HS players with their remaining picks in the top 100, but were not as successful.  Griffin Murphy, a Californian LHP selected with the Blue Jays 2nd round pick (61st overall), was a washout as a starter in the Jays minor league system, but had a successful year closing in 2014.  After 5 minor league seasons in which he had risen no higher than A ball, Murphy was released earlier this month.  Kellen Sweeney was a compensation pick for the club's failure to sign 2009 2nd rounder Jake Eliopoulos, posted a career line of .199/.304/.300 before being released last year. Supplemental  2nd round pick Justin Nicolino, a Florida High Schooler, went to the Marlins in the 2012 deal that preceded the Mets' blockbuster, and made his debut with Miami this year.
  Third round picks Chris Hawkins and Canadian Marcus Knecht are no longer with the organization, but a 4th rounder from South Carolina made life difficult for Toronto during the ALDS. Sam Dyson rose quickly despite missing the 2010 season due to labrum surgery, and the following season to Tommy John, making his MLB debut in 2012.  Short on reliable bullpen arms, Dyson was moved to the pen after only 6 AA starts, and after being named to the Eastern League All-Star Game, was pitching in relief in the majors. Then-Manager John Farrell said that Dyson might have the best overall stuff in the organization.
  The Blue Jays lost Dyson to the Marlins when they removed him from the 40-man roster in order to make room for veteran Mark DeRosa.  Dyson gave  Miami a couple of seasons of reliable relief before being traded to Texas this season.  He was lights out for the Rangers, walking only 4 batters in 30 innings, and was a big part of Texas' playoff run.
  Sean Nolin was the only pick from Rounds 5 to 15 who has advanced as far as the Majors. 5th rounder Dickie Joe Thon Jr has yet to play above High A Showing a knack for being able to find hidden talent far removed from the amateur baseball hotbeds of California, Flordia, and Georgia, the Blue Jays selected a skinny OF from John Fraser SS in Mississauga by the name of Dalton Pompey.  The farm department was content to slowly let the raw Canadian develop, then challenge him with aggressive promotions during his breakthrough year of 2014.  And with the 18th pick, they selected a Las Vegas high schooler about whom BA filed this assessment:

He entered the summer with lofty expectations, but he often looked overmatched at the plate during the showcase circuit last summer. When he's on, he's a treat to watch. He has a lean, 6-foot-5, 195-pound frame and light-tower power that draws comparisons to a young Troy Glaus. The power, however, mostly shows up during batting practice or when he has a metal bat in his hands. There are a lot of moving parts to his swing and he has trouble barreling balls up with wood, so how much usable power he ends up having is a big question. He has a long, loopy swing and he never changes his approach when he's struggling. He's athletic for a big guy and may be able to handle third base. He has the arm for it, and some scouts said they wouldn't be shocked if he eventually ended up on the mound. Some scouts love his power enough to take him in the back half of the first round, while others turned him in as a token gesture and have little interest in him--especially for the price it will take to lure him away from his San Diego commitment.

     That overmatched hitter, of course, turned out to be Kris Bryant, who spurned the Jays offer to attend college, and slugged his way through the minors en route to a 26 HR, 99 RBI Rookie of the Year 2015 season after the Cubs had taken him with the 2nd overall pick in 2013.  Coming out of high school, however, the reports on him were not glowing, and given their tendency in later years to gamble on players with projection, the Blue Jays may have had Bryant much higher on their draft board than other teams, and decided to take a flyer on him. That Bryant went the collegiate route was no surprise, just as it wasn't much of an eyebrow-raiser when he didn't sign with Toronto.

   All in all, it was a solid draft for the new regime's first effort.  How did it rank compared to other teams?

Team		Total WAR	WAR/player
White Sox		31.8	6.4
Braves		23.9	3.4
Mets		22.6	3.8
Nationals		20.6	3.5
Orioles		18.4	6.1
Rays		14.8	1.6
Marlins		13.9	1.7
Blue Jays		13.3	1.7
Diamondbacks		9.3	2.3
Dodgers		7.8	1.3
Indians		7.4	1.2
Tigers		7.3	0.9
Angels		5.8	1
Padres		4.3	0.9
Mariners		3.5	0.7
Brewers		3.3	0.8
Rockies		2.8	0.4
Athletics		2.3	1.1
Royals		1.8	0.4
Phillies		1.3	0.4
Twins		0.5	0.1
Cardinals		0.4	0.1
Yankees		0.2	0
Giants		-0.1	-0.1
Pirates		-0.1	-0.1
Astros		-0.3	-0.1
Cubs		-0.9	-0.1
Red Sox		-1	-0.3
Rangers		-1.3	-0.2

 
    Of the 13 Wins the Blue Jays have accumulated, of course, half have come from the departed Bryant and Syndergaard.  And one player can skew the total - Andrelton Simmons is responsible for 17.2 of the Braves' total,  Harper 19.8 of the Nationals', and Sale a whopping 26.2 of the White Sox'.  Still the Blue Jays results were respectable, even if you do subtract the totals of the departed players and Bryant, leaving 3.9 WAR split by Sanchez and Pompey.
    Was this draft a success?  It did not produce (as of yet) a cornerstone player, although chances are very good that Pompey and Sanchez will turn out to be decent  - if not first division - players in time.
Tinnish, Anthopoulos, and the Blue Jays brain trust was still finding itself in terms of the type of player they like to draft, but the signs were there.  Collegian McGuire did not pan out, and the club showed an overwhelming preference for taking high school pitchers with their top picks, save for Marcus Stroman (who was a roll of the dice on his own) and Jeff Hoffman between 2010 and 2014.  In years to come the Blue Jays would hone their skills at the draft, sometimes punting high picks (Tyler Beede, Phil Bickford), taking players with college commitments that scared some teams away (Anthony Alford, Daniel Norris, Sean Reid-Foley), and more players from non-traditional baseball hotbeds (Danny Jansen, Sanchez, Justin Maese).  They would take advantage of new rules governing bonuses to load up on low-leverage college seniors in the middle rounds, using the savings on later picks (Rowdy Tellez).  After whiffing on their first pick, they drafted well in the next few rounds, but came up empty (other than Pompey) in the teen rounds.  

Five Who Just Missed

Ryan McBroom
Kyle Castle Milb.com Photo

In what I hope will become an annual event, I take a look at 5 Blue Jays prospects who just missed my Top 20 rankings.

   Before we begin, there's nothing like some revisionist history, so let's look at how last year's Five Who Just Missed fared....

1.  Alberto Tirado P
    Tirado began 2014 as one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, after having rapidly risen up the prospect rankings of many evaluators the year before.  The advanced competition and cold Midwestern spring did not agree with him, and he found himself back in Florida after a month, playing in Extended Spring Training. Sent to Vancouver when their season began, he found some success out of the bullpen, which is where he found himself with Dunedin when 2015 began.
   Tirado pitched reasonably well with the D-Jays, averaging a K per inning, but his command issues continued to plague him.  The Blue Jays obviously felt that despite the lightning in his arm, he would never conquer his control of the strike zone, and packaged him in a deal to the Phillies in return for Ben Revere.
   Tirado moved across the bay to pitch for Philadelphia's Clearwater affiliate, and continued to struggle, walking 18 in 16 innings.   There's a lot to like about Tirado - he hit 100 a couple of times on the radar gun this year, so there's huge swing and miss potential with his four-seam fastball.  The problem with a four-seamer, of course, is that it tends to have little movement, and is difficult to command, so it can leave a barrel in a hurry if it meanders too deep into the heart of the strike zone. Or it can miss the strike zone entirely, which seems to have been the case for Tirado this year.  Tirado turns 21 in December, so there is still time for him to develop into a power reliever, but those prospects will grow dimmer with each passing year.

2.  Jairo Labourt P
   Labourt followed a similar path to Tirado in 2014, the difference being that he found success as a starter in Vancouver, and was ranked the Northwest League's 3rd Top Prospect by Baseball America.
Skipped to Dunedin this year, the tall southpaw had mixed results in High A, but pitched a sizzling inning in the Futures Game.  Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs had some interesting observations about him after he was part of the package that was sent to the Tigers in return for David Price:

Labourt is big and has what scouts call a high-maintenance body. His command still wavers and he falls in love with his velo at times, along with other typical kid stuff, like not hiding the fact that he didn’t like the cold in Low-A Lansing and short-season Vancouver. Sometimes this sort of prospect never figures it out and becomes a 7th/8th-inning reliever and sometimes everything clicks, he loses the bad weight and turns into the terror that he shows in glimpses now. Labourt was 12th in a deep Jays organization entering the year as a 45 FV (Future Value - out of 80) and the new velo prompted me to bump him into the 50 FV group, but probably at the bottom of that tier (100-140 among all prospects) until he shows more progress. There’s #3 starter upside and it could all come together at any time, but there’s still some stuff on which the Tigers development will have to work with a talent that would’ve easily been a 1st rounder this past year when comparing him to his peers (college juniors).

   Labourt could be a groundball-inducing machine if he could pound the bottom part of the strike zone more effectively.  That's a huge "if", however.

3.  Dawel Lugo, SS
   There was a time when Lugo, labeled one of the best bats in the 2011 International Free Agent class, was considered a potential impact bat.  He has not produced at that kind of level since starting full season ball last year, and found himself back in Low A in August.
   Lugo has top-notch bat speed.  He puts a lot of balls in play, but because he doesn't tend to walk much, he often finds himself in pitcher's counts, and does not make the kind of contact that skill would normally lend itself to.  And while there were initial concerns about Lugo being able to stay at short, from all reports and my own observations, he's an adequate defender, with decent lateral movement, and he gets rid of the ball quickly.
   Just the same, the Blue Jays sent him, along with some cash, to the Diamondbacks for Cliff Pennington.

4. Danny Jansen C
Now that Anthony Alford has committed to baseball, and is well on his way to Top 100 Prospect (the Holy Land for Prospects) Status, I guess I have to write thousands of words about someone else.
   And for different reasons, that someone is the 2013 16th round pick from the non-baseball hotbed of Wisconsin.
   It's hard to explain why a player you have only seen brief glimpses of is a Just Missed kind of player, but Jansen truly is.  Already a top-notch receiver, with game-calling, pitcher-handling, and pitch-framing skills beyond his years, Jansen has done much of what the organization has asked him to do - except stay healthy.
   Jansen missed a good chunk of short season play with a knee injury this year, and missed almost three more months this year after breaking his hand as a result of being hit by a batter's follow-through.
   The organization thought enough of him that they had him catch Marcus Stroman during his rehab stint with Lansing.  Jansen did struggle at the plate in his first year of full-season ball, but hit reasonably well (.259/.355/.296) in August.  Only 20, it takes a long time to develop catchers, anyway.  Another Catcher who has had more than his share of health issues, Max Pentecost, may jump ahead of Jansen on the organizational depth chart this season, but all the pieces are there for Jansen to become a solid, defence-first backstop.

5.  Roemon Fields  OF
   Fields leaped onto my Top 20 list this year, through a combination of performance and timing.
With many of the names ahead of him dealt at the end of July, Fields did climb up partially through default, but in two minor league seasons, the undrafted free agent has progressed from short season ball to AAA.
  Fields may be the fastest player in the organization, and is the best base stealer outside of Dalton Pompey.  His 44 steals this year are hard to overlook.  As the saying goes, you can't steal first base, and Fields' struggles so far against advanced competition in the Arizona Fall League show that his hit tool is still a work in progress.  He does put the ball in play, but profiles as a Juan Pierre slap hitting type.  He still does not put enough balls in play to pressure defences and take advantage of his speed.


On to this year's Five.
And this year's candidates were not easy ones to come up with.
Let's face it -if you are a top prospect, it's either because you were a recent high draft pick, or because you've built a resume of several years of progression.  If you're a Just Missed guy, you maybe have one of those two traits, but you just have not shown enough evidence, either because of performance or sample size, to warrant being in the Top 20.  They've shown promise - just not enough of it. And after July 31st, there just aren't many guys in the system who fit that profile.   Truth be told, I did think of canning this feature, because it has been a struggle to come up with five names.  In what proved to be his parting press conference, Alex Anthopoulos praised the farm system, rightly pointing out the upper-level talent in it.  What his trading spree has done, however, is truly remove depth from the organization.  And you can't expect trading 14 prospects, no matter their potential, to have any other effect.  But having done it once before, the Blue Jays amateur scouting staff can likely rebuild it again.

1.  Ryan McBroom 1B/DH
    If his birth certificate said 1994 instead of 1992, the Virgina grade would be on many Top Prospects list. A likely Northwest League MVP in 2014 if not for teammate Frankie Barreto, McBroom was the Midwest League's Most Valuable Player this year, leading the league in OBP, Doubles, and was second in batting (he led the league for much of the summer), RBIs, Slugging, and extra base hits.
   If there is depth in the organization, it's at McBroom's position, which is why he spent the whole season at Lansing.  At 23, there were many who said that he was a bit old for that level.  Just the same, another season like this and we have to start taking a closer look.
    Originally drafted in the 36th round out of West Virgina by the Royals, McBroom felt that staying in school for his senior year and finishing his degree in Sports and Exercise Psychology would be a better option that turning pro.  It turned out to be a smart move, as the Blue Jays took him in the 15th round a year later, and while the $100 000 bonus for that slot (McBroom, as a senior with little bargaining leverage likely signed for less) wouldn't be enough to allow a prospect to, say, live in a van and surf during the off-season, it allowed McBroom to secure his future.
  At 6'3"/240, McBroom has worked very hard on his conditioning, and while he may not be the among the fleetest athletes in the system, he's one of its most diligent workers.  The organization tried him in the outfield this year, but he's pretty much limited to a 1B/DH role.  He has below average speed on the bases, and that doesn't promise to improve as he ages.  McBroom, with his academic background, pays close attention to his nutrition, and is a frequent visitor to the weight room.  His 12 Home Runs may seem like a low total for his profile, but the Midwest League is a pitcher-friendly loop, and his home park of Cooley Law Stadium can be a tough park to hit one out of unless you can straddle the foul poles.
   McBroom works the count well, and is patient.  What he does have to work on is going the other way with the ball - the right-handed hitter can get a little pull-happy.  He's an adequate fielder at 1st - he has been compared to Chris Colabello.   He is a long shot at this point, but if he puts up the same kind of numbers at Dunedin next year as he did in his first two pro seasons, it will be time to start thinking about him more seriously as a prospect.

2.  Shane Dawson, LHP
   As far as I can figure out, the Drayton Valley, AB resident has the most northerly baseball background of any player in all of Organized Baseball.    Born in Fort McMurray, he spent his teenage years in the farming community about an hour and a half southwest of Edmonton.
   As John Lott of the National Post wrote, Dawons was born without the infraspinatus muscle in his shoulder, which may account for the fact that he relies on location, command, and guile to get hitters out, as opposed to velocity.
   Dawson broke his leg before his senior year of high school, and after getting little attention from MLB scouts, enroled at Lethbridge Community College, where he played for the Prairie Baseball Academy.  This time, Dawson did get noticed, and the Blue Jays took him with the 17th pick in 2012.
   Dawson has been a one step up the ladder at a time guy, and his shoulder issue, which puts considerable strain on his shoulder, has caused him to be shut down several times for varying stretches.  2015 was his biggest year in terms of the amount he pitched, and it also marked his most successful season since turning pro.  Dawson was a Midwest League All Star with Lansing, and his 12 victories were good enough for thrid in the league, even though he started 5 games for Dunedin after a promotion.
   Despite topping out at about 91 with his fastball, Dawson struck out 98 MWL hitters in 101 innings, and another 22 in 26 IP for the D-Jays.  Control pitcher Dawson K'd about 4 hitters for every 1 he walked this year.  As you might expect with a pitcher who is around the plate so much, he does give up some contact, but kept it to under a hit an inning this year.
   Dawson doesn't really profile as a top prospect because of the veloctiy, and because of concerns about his shoulder.  However, you just have to look at the successful 16-year career of Mark Buehrle to know that there's more to getting hitters out than blowing them away.  As Hall of Famer Warren Spahn (another lefty who knew how to get hitters out) said, "Hitting is Timing.  Pitching is disrupting timing."
   Dawson will likely start the year at Dunedin.  If he succeeds, and earns a promotion to New Hampshire - and can continue to get hitters out - we have to look at him in a whole new light.

3.  Justin Shafer, RHP
   If you are looking for a sleeper prospect, this athletic Floridian might be your man.
Drafted in the 8th round last year, Shafer was mostly an outfielder for his three NCAA seasons with Florida, pitching 36 innings in his draft year.
   Sent to Vancouver last year, Shafer was assigned to Lansing to start the season, and earned a promotion to Dunedin early in the season.  The challenge proved to be a bit too much, and he finished the season in Lansing.
   Still, Shafer's rise is quite remarkable when you consider he didn't become a full-time pitcher until he turned pro.  He's added velocity on his fastball, touching 97 this year, but Shafer's bread-and-butter pitch is his sinker, which generates plenty of weak contact.  He also throws a change and slider, and added a cutter to his arsenal this year.
  Shafer is very much still a work in progress, and is still in the undergrad years of his pitching degree.  Sequencing pitches and learning to make mechanical adjustments during games are still areas requiring further development.  Just the same, Midwest League batters only managed a .223 average against him, and he had many outings where he had twice as many ground ball as fly ball outs.
   Shafer is still far, far away (if ever) from the bright lights of the big leagues. At the same time, he's made huge progress in a short period of time.  He is not a polished, finished product by any stretch of the imagination.  If he continues to develop, he could rise up the ranks quickly.  The Blue Jays seem to think so too, evidenced by his assignment to the Arizona Fall League.  Shafer's name may be one to toss out and casually mention to your baseball-minded friends, then remind them about him a year or two later.

4.  Lane Thomas, IF
   The usual progression for Blue Jays High School draftees goes as follows:  Gulf Coast League for season one, then the Appy and Northwest Leagues for seasons two and three.  Some accelerated prospects get to Vancouver sometime in their second season.
   Thomas was in that second group.  And as is the case sometimes, challenging a prospect with aggressive promotions can sometimes backfire.  A 5th round pick in 2014 from Bearden HS in Knoxville, TN, Thomas surged through the system last year, finishing strongly at Bluefield.  The premium athlete, who played mostly outfield in High School, seemed to be settling in nicely at 2nd Base when he was sent to the Pacific Northwest in June when the NWL season started.
   Thomas was hampered by a nagging wrist injury for much of the season, and struggled with the Canadians, hitting .225/.257/.391 in 43 games. He struggled to make to make good contact in June, fared a little better in July, and hit .500/.526/.778 in 4 games in the first week of August.   Promoted to Lansing after that run, he was overmatched by Low A pitchers before finishing the final two weeks of the season on the Disabled List.
    2015 was a huge year of adjustment for Lane.  He was learning a new position, as well as having to deal with living in, as much as we Canadians hate to admit it, in a foreign country, and dealing with the travel and playing under the lights for the first time - and at the more advanced competitive level of the NWL, as well.
  Baseball America had this to say about Lane in a pre-draft report:

Thomas, whose father Mike is a professional drag racer, is a good athlete with a strong build and well-rounded skill set, a plus runner under way with a chance to be a legitimate center fielder. The 5-foot-11, 175-pound Thomas has a quick stroke and the ability to create lots of hard contact, and he could develop average power. He drives the ball primarily to the pull side. Although he has rarely played shortstop this spring, he takes plenty of ground balls and some teams think his skill set plays better in the dirt with his above-average arm and athleticism. Scouts have split views on him depending up on how they view his defensive profile and bat. Some teams value him as high as the third round, while others think he is likely to reach campus at Tennessee.

   Thomas "just missed" this list last year; sample size was about the only thing holding back.  It would have been reasonable to assume a year ago that he would leap into the Top 20 this offseason, but 2015 was a setback year for him.  Setbacks for young players are not necessarily a bad thing, however - for some, this is their first extended taste of failure in a game that has been ridiculously easy for them since about the 3rd Grade.  If Thomas can put the adjustments he had to make and lessons he had to learn to good use next year, he should continue that upward trajectory.

5.  Lupe Chavez, RHP
   To close, why not go out on a limb?   In 2011, the Blue Jays signed a portly 16-year-old who had already faced men in Mexican League action.  Five years later, a slimmed-down Roberto Osuna played an integral role in the team's race to the post-season.
   In 2014, the team once again dipped into the ranks of teenaged Mexican hurlers to sign the 16-year-old Chavez.  Chavez had been an outfielder, but converted to pitching, and was considered one of the best pitching prospects in the country.  With a skinny (6'2"/150) but projectable build, scouts liked Chavez's advanced feel for pitching (the same thing many of them said about Osuna).  When he was signed, Chavez was already hitting 91, and was projected to climb as he matured.  His best pitch has long been his change-up, and has a steadily improving breaking ball.
  The usual starting point for International Free Agents like Chavez is the Dominican Summer League, where organizations can house their young players, making sure that they received proper nutrition and instruction.  If successful, they usually start the next season stateside in the GCL.  By many reports, Chavez had a terrific debut at Florida Instructs last fall, but a bit of a roster crunch saw him begin 2015 in the DSL.  He outpitched Juan Meza, who the Blue Jays signed to a higher bonus after being ranked the 10th best IFA last year.
  After dominating DSL hitters in 10 starts, Chavez' timetable was moved up, and he found himself in the GCL in August.  In 4 appearances for the GCL Jays, he did not look out of place.  Clearly, he's on the fast track, and should begin next year in Bluefield.
   It's both a sign of the lack of depth in the system and a testament to Chavez' rise that I think that he's worthy of inclusion on this list.

Clutchlings Notebook - Off Season Edition

Jack Murphy
Canberra Times photo

The minor league season has been over for six weeks now, but that doesn't mean an end to baseball activity for prospects.

   Instructional League play has been taking place in both Florida and Arizona since late September. Organizations invite their top prospects (most of them from the lower levels) for further instruction and refinement.  The Blue Jays hold their Instructs camp at their Dunedin complex - prospects work on skills in the morning, then play games in the afternoon against other minor league instructional league teams from the area.
   News from Instructs can be sketchy.  I do have a couple of Florida-based sources who have updated me on the progress of several prospects.  Stats are barely kept, and they can be misleading, as prospects are trying to put newly learned skills into game use. Former Jays greats George Bell and Ernie Whitt were on hand to help with the instruction - Whitt, who managed Canada to an incredible Gold Medal win at the Pan Am Games, will be once again guiding a Canadian team this fall.  This time, the former Catcher will lead the senior men's team at the International Baseball Federation's Premier 12 tournament in Taiwan.  This tournament involves the top ten ranked baseball countries in the world (Canada sits at 7th), and opens November 8th.   I'm still waiting to find out about Canada's roster, but we do know at this point that Justin Atkinson, who started the year at Lansing, and finished at Vancouver, will be on it.  The 5th year pro, a 26th round pick out of North Surrey (BC) HS, can catch and play the corner infield positions.  He will be called upon to be a back up at all three of those spots at this tournament.  Canada plays 3rd ranked Cuba in their opening game.
  We also know that Vladimir Guerrero Jr, the top ranked international free agent signed this past July, has turned a lot of heads with his power.  His first Home Run was described by Eddie Michels of Rocket Sports, a Tampa-based web broadcaster:

The shot was hit so high to left field at the Blue Jays Mattick Complex that it landed on the concrete walkway behind the 30-foot screen then bounced about half way over the clubhouse landing on the roof.  

   Guerrero hit another homer a day later, and this time my friend and frequent photo contributor @BaseballBetsy was there to capture it:

   Guerrero will probably play stateside in the GCL next year - he may not start there, but he likely will finish.  Despite his bat, the biggest challenge he faces is rebuilding his potentially high-maintenance body.  I would really like to see him embrace a better conditioning routine and diet.  Much has been made already of Guerrero not having the all around game like his father did, and while 1st Base will be his likely destination one day, it would give the organization more flexibility if Jr can change his body and develop some improved agility.   

   

    Even though Instructional League play has wound down, there is still baseball being played somewhere.
And one of those places is Arizona, where the Arizona Fall League began play this week.  The AFL is a chance for teams to give their top prospects additional experience playing against elite competition.  The Blue Jays have sent several players to suit up for the Salt River Rafters  river (rafting apparently is a big thing in the Phoenix area):  pitchers Justin Shafer, Chad Girodo and Brady Dragmire, as well as speedy OF Roemon Fields, IF/OF Emilio Guerrero, and 1B/DH Rowdy Tellez.  P Jeremy Gabryszwski was a late addition to the roster.
   This may not be as talented a group as others the Blue Jays have sent to the Southwest, but the bundle of prospects they gave up in July may be to blame for that.  Tellez is a masher who made it to High A in his third  pro season, and is 4-8, with a HR and 8 RBI in his first two games.  Girodo is a submarining lefty who to me has a shot at unseating Aaron Loup as the first southpaw up in the bullpen if not next year, then definitely in 2017.  His delivery makes him extremely tough on left-handed hitters.
   
   And we received word earlier this week that the Blue Jays have named the group of prospects who will be making the trip down under to play in the Australian Baseball League.  Toronto has had a partnership with the Canberra Cavalry, who have been reasonably competitive in the loop, which is designed to promote the game and give homegrown talent a chance to play.  It also gives MLB prospects a chance to accelerate their development, and it often gives players who were let go by a major league organization to showcase themselves for other teams.  David Polkinghorne, who covers the Cavalry for the Canberra Times,  says that while the league is important for Aussie baseball, the game sits "well behind cricket (our national summer sport), and in Canberra it sits just ahead of soccer and women's basketball," in terms of popularity.
   The ABL relies heavily on MLB for players and financial support.  The Australian Government and a handful of Aussie corporations contribute to the league's operating expenses as well.  Polkinghorne says that possibly only Canberra and perennial contender Perth are financially viable on their own.
  The league has an import rule that dictates that at least 5 players in the 10-man on-field lineup must be Aussies.  That rule cost Canberra a game last year, when Australian OF Adam Silva was hit by a pitch in the 6th inning of a game and couldn't continue, and the Cavs had no homegrown replacement on the bench.  The easiest way around this rule, of course, is to have top-level (that is to say, MLB-owned) native talent on your roster, but the distribution of strong amatuer program in Australia is uneven, and most Aussie MLB prospects prefer to play for their hometowns, meaning that teams like Canberra, that don't have a good amateur organizations in their area, as Polkinghorne says, get "players the other states don't want."
   There's extensive video coverage of the ABL on their website.  There are limited camera angles, and the Aussie commentary is a bit different to North American ears, but it's a good opportunity to watch some of these and other prospects.
   One of Canberra's favourite Blue Jays farmhands, C Jack Murphy, was dealt to the Dodgers in the Darwin Barney deal, was a hero in the nation's capital, returning year after year, and leading the Cavs to an ABL title in 2013, as well as an Asia Series championship, a competition for Asian club teams. Murphy originally declined Canberra's offer to return, but changed his mind this past week.  Because he has played more than two consecutive seasons in the ABL, he doesn't count as an import.  That could be huge for the Cavalry roster.
   The Aussie League is a haven for pitchers who topped out at AA - veteran types who know how to get hitters out with more than pure velocity, but lack something in their arsenal to allow them to progress further. After he gave up on college football to focus on baseball last September, the Blue Jays sent Anthony Alford to the league for a crash course in pitch recognition.  The backwards-pitching veteran Aussie hurlers made life tough for Alford, but his breakthrough season this year is not a coincidence, and was very much a product of his struggles in Australia.  There is no Alford amongst this year's group that will be crossing the Pacific, but there is some promise.  Here's a brief summary of each.

OF Derrick Loveless
 The left-hand hitting Loveless is possibly the best potential bat heading to Australia, but he struggled with Dunedin this year.  The 2011 27th rounder has been a one step at a time guy up the minor league ladder, and looked to be putting things together with a .753 OPS season at Lansing, but he took a bit of a step back in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League this year, hitting .216/321/.345.  Still, he hit 10 Home Runs in a league that's tough to put up double-digit totals. There was concern that a strained shoulder would keep Loveless stateside, but the most recent word is that he will be making the trip.

IF/OF David Harris
   Personal bias alert:  I've been a fan of the 2013 36th round pick since I saw him play in his first season at Vancouver.  In one game, playing 2nd Base, he made a pair of impressive plays in one inning - on one, he had to dodge a runner on 1st heading to 2nd in order to field a slow roller to just nip the hitter at 1st.  Two batters later, he ranged far down the 1st base line to snare a dying quail of a pop-up off the bat of a right hand hitter.   Harris was drafted as an org guy, and he's filled that role to a "T", playing a multitude of positions effectively.  He split time between Lansing and Dunedin this year, and had more success at the former, hitting .280/.333/.427 for the Lugnuts.  His versatility should come in handy for Canberra.

IF Jason Leblebijian
   Like Harris, the 2012 25th rounder can play a variety of positions, but is probably most adept at Shortstop.  He hit .277/.345/.473 at Lansing, but struggled at Dunedin.  He likely will play multiple positions with Canberra

P Phil Kish
   The veteran reliever saved 15 games between Vancouver and Lansing last year, but struggled in 2015.  He's clearly here to get in some extra work.

P Colton Turner
 Turner missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and came back with Lansing as a reliever this year, pitching in 31 games.

  As a post-script, I should add that I thought that C Danny Jansen, who missed significant time for the second straight year, might be Australia-bound.  With those veteran pitchers, perhaps a more experienced hand like Murphy was needed, and Canberra already had local boy Robbie Perkins, who played in the Sally League for Colorado's affiliate this year on the roster.  Perkins will probably head to the outfield with Murphy in camp now.

 The ABL and MLB originally signed a 5 year agreement prior to the 2010-11 season (each campaign starts in late October, and ends in late February), and it expired prior to this season.   Attendance has been for the most part low since the league's inception (outside of Perth and Canberra, mostly), and this past week, both the Chief Executive of the ABL and MLB's Director of Australia and Oceania were fired.  There are some who think that these were moves that have to be made, as a change of direction was needed to grow the league. There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the ABL as its Opening Day approaches.


  Other Blue Jays farmhands playing winter ball include:
Dominican League:  Bobby Korecky, Andy Fermin, Richard Urena, Melky Mesa, Luis Santos
Mexican League:  Jorge Flores
Venezuelan League:  Andrew Albers, Casey Lawrence, Gabriel Cenas, Michael Lee, Miguel Burgos, Gregory Infante, Austen Bibens-Dirx, Jonathan Torres

Puerto Rican League rosters are not up yet, but it's a safe bet that Dickie Joe Thon and A.J. Jimenez will be on one.

   It will also be interesting to see how Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos re-tools the major league roster after this season is over.  With his farm system all but bare save for a few prospects like Alford and Tellez he wouldn't give up at the trade deadline, it's hard to see him pull off a deal involving a player with the stature of Josh Donaldson.  Will he be bold, and work in the reverse direction, dealing a high-profile everyday player for futures?  That seems unlikely - it's hard to see him wanting to alter this lineup beyond some minor tweaking.  One thing is certain:  the club has emptied the system once before, and is confident in its ability to re-stock it.

Toronto Blue Jays Next Ten: Top Prospects 11-20

 

Clinton Hollon
@BaseballBetsy photo

A year ago, putting my Top 10 Blue Jays prospects list was a difficult task because of the depth of the system. Putting together the Next 10 was a little bit easier - it became a repository for players who had impressed, but didn't quite make the Top 10 cut.
   This year's Next 10 list was not such an easy task.
   With the system emptied of 5 of the Top 10 prospects from my original list last fall (and 7 of the Top 20), it seems we are left with prospects whose development has stalled for one reason or another, or players who have shown promise in limited sample sizes.
   As I mentioned in the Top 10 article, the Blue Jays are not afraid to use prospects as currency to upgrade the big league roster; what we witnessed this summer is unprecedented in club history.  This fits with the "roll the dice" draft day philosophy the club has adopted in the Anthopoulos regime. The Blue Jay brain trust knew the risk they were taking by trading so many prospects, but they at the same time were banking on their ability to re-stock the system, having done this once before.

   What makes a prospect a Next 10 guy?  Usually some combination of lesser ceilings, injuries, and limited experience that makes projecting them as a top tier prospect difficult, at least at the moment. The one thing that I have learned above all else since I started following prospects a few years ago is that progress is seldom measured in a straight line.  Some prospects rocket through the system and on to the major leagues, but they are the exception and not the rule.  For some of the guys on the list, having the needle at least move forward more than it does the opposite direction is the key.  And sometimes you find nuggets:  both Sean Reid-Foley and Rowdy Tellez were near-bottom Next 10 prospects at this time last year, and climbed the ranks because the organization put them in spots where they could blossom. Their rise to the top list was not necessarily though default.  And I just didn't know enough about Devon Travis to rank him any higher, although I had a hunch he was a Top 10 player.



11.  Dwight Smith, Jr  OF
   Putting Smith in this spot is admittedly a bit of a reach, and is very reflective of his current prospect class.
   Smith's .265/.335/.376 line in his first year of AA ball was not especially impressive.  In fairness to him, he was dealing with a leg injury in May which limited his effectiveness for the next two months, and he was down for the last part of July.
  Smith emerged from his time on the shelf a different player, hitting .281/.374/.447 with 13 extra-base hits over the last month of the season, including a .333 average over the final 10 games of the season.
  Smith does not do one thing overwhelmingly well.  He's a decent hitter, but does not hit with enough power for a corner outfield spot.  He has good speed, but is not enough of a base stealer to hit at the top of the order.  Smith is a reasonably good outfielder, but doesn't have the instincts or arm to play anything other than Left Field.  The Blue Jays even experimented with him at 2nd Base in the Arizona Fall League last year, but abandoned that by spring training.
  Just the same, he has a bat that may play somewhere.  If he's healthy next year, he should be a different player at AAA.  Prior to this season, he had good offensive seasons at Lansing in 2013, and Dunedin in 2014, in leagues that are friendlier to pitchers than hitters. With Dalton Pompey and Anthony Alford well ahead of Smith at the moment, it's hard to see where he fits in the long term plans of the organization, but off-season deals could change that quickly.
  If he's not placed on the 40-man roster this fall, Smith will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft, and while it's not out of the realm of possibility for a team to take a chance on him, it seems unlikely.


12.  Justin Maese  RHP
   In keeping with the out on a limb theme, let's go with a premium athlete from an out of the way place.
   Here's what Baseball America said about Maese (say "My-AY-zee") prior to this year's draft:

Maese climbed this spring from off of draft boards into consideration for the top 10 rounds because scouts who saw him at his best saw an above-average fastball and a slider that flashed above-average. But scouts who stuck around for a few more starts saw the stuff often drop back from the 93-96 mph he showed at his best to 88-92 mph. Maese's feel for the breaking ball comes and goes and his delivery involves effort and is somewhat mechanical. But Maese has lots of arm speed and potential if he can smooth out the rough edges. He is committed to Texas Tech.

  And here's what Baseball Prospectus' Chris King was saying about him by late summer:

Justin Maese was fantastic today for the GCL #BlueJays. Locating all of his pitches. Worked the FB inside very well. CH coming along nicely

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 30, 2015

Very impressive outing from Justin Maese. Solid 3 pitch mix and strike throwing ability. Repeats well and attacks hitters #BlueJays

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 5, 2015

@Randip_23 nice looking arm. FB sits 91-93 with decent command. 2 seamer gets weak contact. SL 80-81. Just started throwing a CH last game

— Chris King (@StatsKing) August 11, 2015

   El Paso, TX, is not exactly a baseball hot bed, but the Blue Jays were one of the teams that kept coming back to see the young righthander. Maese put up a record of 5-0, with a 1.01 ERA in 35 Gulf Coast innings.  In the GCL Jays semi-final, he delivered a brilliant six innings, giving up 4 hits and an earned run, while walking only 1 and striking out a career-high 10.
   It's hard to put a lot of stock in numbers posted in the GCL, but Maese's are encouraging.  The level of play in the league was above what it has been in years past.  Maese appears to be developing a four pitch arsenal - three are looking like they're right on track, and he's likely working on his slider at Instructs as you read this. Reports say his fastball touched 95 this year, and that number will likely bump up a notch or two as he matures.
   Maese obviously benefits from the lack of players above him, and we truly won't get a read on him until full-season ball, which may not be until 2017 (or late 2016) in his case.  He recently donated $6 000 to his family's church in his hometown, , which suggests good character.  Those concerns about his delivery seem to have abated, too.  This is an arm worth watching.


13.  Clinton Hollon RHP
   A cautionary tale: a young pitching prospect, a high draft choice, fails a test for a performance enhancing drug (likely an over-the-counter substance), and receives a 50-game suspension.  Even though he was given a list of approved substances, and was warned about the evils of unapproved ones -many of which have ingredient labels which can't be trusted - the prospect still went ahead and took the substance.  He expresses remorse, and claims he did not knowingly take the banned substance, but he has only himself to blame.
   Sound familiar?
  It should, because it happened to Marcus Stroman, and cost him the end of his 2012 season, and the first six weeks of 2013.  Stroman was found to have taken the stimulant methylhexaneamine, which is a short-acting stimulant slightly more powerful than a cup of coffee.  Stroman says he took the drug inadvertently, which is likely the case; methylhexaneamine is found in many popular supplements at drug stores, and chain nutritional stores like GNC.
   There is no word as to what substance Hollon has taken, except that is was an amphetamine, which fits into the stimulant category.  One of the benefits of following minor league players on Twitter is that they have the time and eagerness to answer your questions.  However, they can also duck them, unlike major league players who are the subject of media requests, if they choose to.  The normally quick to respond Hollon is reportedly devastated, but has been understandably reluctant to talk.
    And unlike Stroman, the timing of the suspension comes at an unfortunate time for Hollon.  Selected by the Jays in the 2013 draft out of Kentucky HS, he slipped to the 2nd round despite leading his school to the state championship because of concerns about his delivery, elbow, and makeup.  When the team failed to sign 1st round pick Phil Bickford, Hollon became the de facto top pick.
   Hollon made his debut in late 2013, and battled elbow soreness.  He tried to fight through it again in the spring of 2014, but tests confirmed a torn UCL, and he underwent Tommy John in May.
   New father Hollon returned to competition with Vancouver this June with a refined delivery, and a determined attitude.  He had a sizzling debut as the C's Opening Day starter, striking out 7 in 5 shutout innings, while allowing only a walk and a pair of hits.  Promoted to Lansing in August, he showed a continued flair for making an entrance.  In his MWL debut, he loaded the bases on a hit and two walks in the first inning, then retired the next 19 batters in a row.
   There is no doubt that Hollon has an electric arm.  He has a loose arm action, and has regained most of his former velo, which topped at 95 in his senior year of high school.  He throws a two-plane slider, curve, and change, and despite projections that his smaller size might mean an eventual destination in the bullpen, he shows an advanced feel for pitching that will keep him in a starting rotation until results determine otherwise.
   And about that attitude.  There are two sides to every story, and I've been told that it wasn't easy being small-town boy Clinton Hollon growing up, and that may have meant he developed a chip on his shoulder.  Did he take a banned substance because he thought he knew better?  Did he think the results were worth the risk?  Or, more likely, as in the case of Stroman, did he ingest something without knowing, despite warnings from the organization?
   Only Hollon knows the answer to that question, but the questions about his maturity and emotional makeup will continue in the wake of his suspension, which coupled with his surgery pushes his development back. The Blue Jays no doubt will continue to be patient with their young pitcher, who won't turn 21 until Christmas Eve.  He won't be eligible to pitch until mid-May.
   
14.  Dan Jansen C
   When the Blue Jays signed Russell Martin to a 5 year, $82 million contract in the off season, some thought it might be a sign that the club had little faith in their catching prospects.
   Nothing could be further from the truth.
   The contract they signed Martin to was the going rate and term for a catcher of his immense defensive skills.  And while many bemoaned Martin's lack of offence in August and early September, Manager John Gibbons wisely continued to write Martin's name in the lineup.  As the club heads to the post-season, Martin's signing is looking more and more like a shrewd investment.
  Of all defensive positions on the field, none are more important (outside of pitching itself) than Catcher, a spot with myriad responsibilities.
   Martin's signing has certainly helped to shore up both the Blue Jays defence and pitching staff.  It has also bought additional development time for Jansen and Max Pentecost.
   Jansen, a 16th round Wisconsin HS pick in 2013, has moved slowly through the system.  A knee injury caused a shutdown last year, and while with Lansing this year, a broken hand after being hit by a Dayton hitter's follow-through in May cost him almost three months.
   Despite that missed time, Jansen is emerging as a premium defender.  He moves well for his size (6'2", 230) behind the plate.  Jansen blocks balls in the dirt well, and is already an excellent framer of pitches.  He's been lauded for his ability to handle pitchers, which is a skill which may not directly show up in box scores, but is one of the most important tools in a Catcher's kit.
   Jansen struggled with the bat this year after a decent 2014 at Bluefield.  He struggled to stay above .200, but his bat was coming around in May before his injury.  Jansen showed some pop, with 5 HR in 183 ABs, and when Marcus Stroman came to Lansing for a rehab start, it was no coincidence that Jansen was behind the plate.
   That in and of itself speaks volumes about Jansen's future with the organization. He does not profile as an offensive catcher like Pentecost does, but does seem to be more of a defense-first catcher in the mold of Martin.


15.  DJ Davis OF
  Few players demonstrate the fact that development is a long, not necessarily straight-line process better than the young Mississippian.
   When the Blue Jays drafted Davis in the 1st round of the 2012 draft, he was both one of the youngest and rawest players in his class.  Davis' father Wayne played for years in the Toronto system in the mid-80s, never rising about High A, and like his son, was a speedy but contact-challenged outfielder.
   Davis was ranked the #3 prospect in the Gulf Coast League in his rookie year, and was the 8th ranked prospect in the Appalachian League the following year, despite less than sterling statistics.  Challenged with an assignment to full-season ball at Lansing last year, Davis' swing and miss tendencies were in full bloom, as he led the Midwest League in strikeouts with 167.  Despite his speed, he didn't show last year that he was turning into a threat on the basepaths, going 19-39 in stolen base attempts.  Davis has cut down on his long, loopy swing.
   Sent to Lansing to repeat Low A, Davis has made huge advances in his game.  He cut his K's down almost 30%, and stole 21 bases, and was caught only 10 times.  His overall line of .282/.340/.391 was a huge improvement over 2014's .213/.268/.316.  Not enough to put him back into Top 10 country, but encouraging nonetheless.
   In 2014, the left-handed hitting Davis hit more balls to left center, and ground balls to the right side:

mlbfarm.com

   This year, he's shown a tendency to pull the ball a bit more, while still using the whole field:

mlbfarm.com

   Still only 21, there is still time for Davis to develop.  He put more balls in play than he did last year, made harder contact, and with his plus speed, that's a positive step forward.
   Davis had a career day on June 8th, driving in a franchise record-tying 8 runs:

16.  Tom Robson RHP
   Like Maese, British Columbia born-and-raised Robson owes his ascent to the Next 10 somewhat to default.  He more likely would be in the next tier of prospects if July 31st had been a quiet day for Blue Jays fans.
  The 2011 4th rounder was making steady progress through the system before blowing out his elbow early in the 2014 season.  He came back this summer, and like most returning Tommy John patients, had re-captured his former velocity, but not his command.
   Robson hit 97 with his fastball this year, and sat between 93-95.  When he locates it, it has good sink, and he pounds the bottom of the strike zone, where ground balls are born, well.  Robson complements that fastball with a decent curve and change-up.  His arsenal revolves around his ability to command that fastball - which rarely happened this year.
  Still, there is a lot to like about Robson, and we won't begin to get a true reading on his potential until next year, when he likely will be a High A Dunedin.  If he maintains that velocity and regains his command, Robson profiles as a sleeper ground ball-inducing machine.
   Robson is also eligible for the Rule 5 this fall, but it's hard to see a team selecting him at this point.  However, if you want a sleeper prospect, he could be one.

17.  Roemon Fields OF
   If you don't know Fields' story by now....well, you just should.
   After high school, the Washington State product played Juco ball close to home, then transferred to tiny Bethany (KS), a NAIA school, where he ran track and played ball.
  Undrafted after he graduated, Fields worked in a mall selling hats, and then for the US Postal Service.  He had all but given up on his MLB dreams, when his former Juco coach invited him to play for a team he had assembled at an international tournament in Prince George, BC, and caught the eye of Jays scout Matt Bishoff, who signed the fleet Fields to a contract off of his play there.
   Fields made his pro debut with Vancouver in 2014, and broke the Northwest League for stolen bases.  He skipped Lansing for Dunedin this year, and held his own before being promoted to New Hampshire (with a brief trial in Buffalo) to end the year.  He stole 46 bases (in 60 attempts), and hit .262/.316/.321 at three levels.  Here's a sample of his speed from spring training:

   Pretty heady stuff for a guy who really didn't get a sniff from pro scouts in his senior year.  Fields is proof that if you cast your scouting net far and wide, you'll catch the odd potential keeper.
   Fields is possibly the fastest player in the organization, with the possible exception of Anthony Alford.  He is also more of a slap hitter (career .656 OPS), and profiles as a fourth outfielder.
   At the same time, Fields did not play year round ball while he was in college like so many of his peers did, so he still may be catching up on lost development time.  Fields, who turns 25 in November, is what he is. He still could make better contact and put more balls in play, because he has elite (70 grade) speed that puts a lot of pressure on defenders.  It was mildly surprising that he didn't receive an elevation to the 40-man and a place on the Blue Jays September roster to see some pinch-running duty down the stretch.  At the same time, there wasn't much room on that 40-man roster, and with Dalton Pompey already there, perhaps the time wasn't quite right for Fields.  He has been assigned to the Arizona Fall League, where we'll get a much better read on his future prospects against elite competition.


18.  Mitch Nay 3B
   There are few prospects who demonstrate the lengthy process development often entails than Nay.
In 2012, he was named Arizona's High School Player of the Year, and was considered one of the best prep power bats heading into the draft.
  A broken foot suffered prior to draft day, and a commitment to Arizona State caused his stock to slip, and the Blue Jays, who were without a first round pick, snapped him up in the supplemental round, 58th overall.
Nay's pro debut was delayed until 2013, and it was an impressive one, as he and Matt Dean formed a potent heart-of-the-order combination at Bluefield.  Nay capped off that rookie season with a promotion to Vancouver for the NWL playoffs, where he was named Playoff MVP as he led the C's to the league crown.
  Nay was challenged with an assignment to Lansing for 2014, and while his power had yet to make itself known, he led the pitcher-friendly Midwest League in Doubles, and hit a solid .285/.342/.389.  The thought was that all those doubles would turn into home runs as he matured.
Promoted to Dunedin to start 2015, the prospecting community began to sour on Nay as he struggled mightily through the first half of the season.  Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus, in particular, was very down on him:

The overall package is underwhelming, however, without a true carrying tool. With only average bat speed, he can get beat inside with average velocity. He needs to get his hands extended in order to drive the ball with any authority. He’s strong, but his up-the-middle approach leads to more doubles than home run production. Most importantly, he struggles to recognize spin. On defense, he’s already limited by his range, with a poor first step and below-average foot speed. He’ll never be better than an average defender at third base, and even that would take some natural refinement. He’s currently below average.

In order to end up with any kind of regular playing time, he’ll have to learn to drive the ball more consistently. Without the ability to catch up to premium velocity, his only way to do that will be on mistakes with breaking balls.

  The problem with making such an evaluation on a still relatively young player is that they are nowhere near a finished product in the low minors, and it turns out that Nay was asked by the organization to alter his swing this year in order to pull the ball more, and accelerate that power development. Nay hit just .218/.287/.333 in the first half, as he adjusted to the new approach.  He hit a much more promising .280/.327/.382 in the second half, before being shut down after being hit by a pitch in August.
   The power still didn't show up, as Nay hit 5 round trippers in the first half, and none in the second.  Again, the Florida State League is another pitcher's haven, and if you base Nay's season on his numbers alone, you're doing him a disservice.  Next year, however is a bit of a make-or-break for him, likely at New Hampshire.

19.  Andy Burns UT
   Burns is very much a forgotten man as far as prospects are concerned, but I think he's still very much in the picture.
  Burns sat out his final year of college after transferring, and he fell to the Blue Jays in the 11th round of the 2011 draft.  He has progressed steadily through the system, and garnered some attention with a line of .327/.383/.524 in half a season at Dunedin in 2013.
   After a so-so year at the plate with New Hampshire in 2014, Burns busted out again this year at Buffalo, hitting .291/.350/.373.
  Burns does not project as an everyday player, but he does profile as a potential super utility player.  His normal position is short stop, but with Jonathan Diaz and Munenori Kawasaki on Buffalo's roster for most of the season, Burns saw duty at short (8 games), 2nd (46), 3rd (50), 1st (13) and the outfield (8 games split between left and right).  Burns is not currently on the 40-man roster, and while 2104 was his first year of Rule 5 eligibility, there's a slight chance he could be snapped up this year if he's not promoted.
  In this day and age of 7 and 8 man bullpens, a player who can play a multitude of positions is a truly valuable commodity.  And while he's not a speed merchant, Burns runs the bases well, adding to his versatility.  I do not see Burns as an everyday player, and I'm not sure I even see him as a Ben Zobrist type. I do see him as having an MLB future with his ability to fill a lot of roles, and handle the bat well.  He's worth including in the prospect picture.

20.  Jose Espada RHP
   The Blue Jays took right handed pitchers with 4 of their first 5 picks last June, with Espada being the last.
   The Puerto Rican HS grade does not have that long, lean build that the Blue Jays covet in a pitcher, but he does have the athleticism, upside, and power arm that they love.
  Espada showed good command in his first pro season in the GCL, striking out 31 in 34 IP, while allowing only 8 walks.  His fastball sits at 89-91, and touched 93 - there's little doubt that there's room for projection there.  He showed a very sharp front-door breaking ball, and impressive feel for his change.
  Espada is said to be very polished for a high school pitcher, and the GCL didn't present much of a challenge for him.  Like Maese, he didn't make the cut for the Top 20 GCL prospects list because of that deep crop of players ahead of him.  He may not start next year in full season ball, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up there.  My fellow prospect hunters in Vancouver will likely get to see a fair amount of him next year, as I expect him to skip Bluefield.


   After July 31st, the cupboard may not be bare, but it's certainly time to consider a trip to the grocery store to re-stock.  This organization has proven adept at rebuilding the system before, and they're not afraid to do it again.  There is some depth in short season ball, but players at that level are so far away that they don't have a lot of value.
   In my next post, I'll take a look at five players who just missed the Top 20.

For reference purposes, here's last year's Next 10:

11.  Travis
12.  Sean Nolin
13.  Pentecost
14.  Nay
15.  Matt Smoral
16.  Smith
17.  Tellez
18.  Jairo Labourt
19.  Reid-Foley
20.  Ryan Borucki

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