A Look at Jesus Tinoco

   Jesus Tinoco made his full-season debut with Lansing last month, and thanks to a good-quality broadcast from host West Michigan on Sunday, May 17th,  I had a chance to chart his start against the Tigers' Midwest League affiliate.

   As with my other "scouting" reports, I remind you that I am not an actual scout.  I spent many years as a catcher/centerfielder, so I think I've always had a fairly good perspective on pitchers, but the following should not replace reports from an actual real live scout.

   Tinoco was born and raised in Venezuela, and was nurtured by legendary trainer Cito Barrios.  His teammates at Barrios' academy included Franklin Barreto, Jesus Gonzalez, and Wuilmer Becerra, all of whom the Blue Jays signed for huge bonuses on the July 2 International signing kick-off day in 2011.  Thought to be in that company, Tinoco didn't sign with Toronto until September, for a $400 000 bonus.

   Tinoco didn't make his pro debut until 2012, and made his stateside debut a year later in the Gulf Coast League.  The West Michigan broadcasters made note of his 2-19 career Won-Loss record prior to the game, but W-L records can very misleading for pitchers in the low minors.  Pitch counts, especially in short season play, are strictly adhered to, and starters often come out in the middle of innings - it's not until later that they get a chance to pitch out of trouble (as Tinoco had to in this game). So, a pitcher's record, at least until they get to full season ball, can be a reflection of the pitchers who come in after them during a game.  I don't know for certain how often this was the case for Tinoco at Bluefield of the Appalachian League last year, but several accounts have him pitching better than his 1-9 record.  I spoke with Danny Jansen, who caught several of his starts at Bluefield last year,  Jansen said that Tinoco had dominant stuff, and was hard to hit when he got going.  The trouble is, of course, is that he didn't always have that sinker going last year - he pitched six complete innings four times for Bluefield last year,  His ERA for those starts was a tiny 0.67, compared to 7.59 for his other 8 starts.
   Nonetheless, Tinoco has drawn some notice.  Clint Longenecker of Baseball America compared him to a former Lugnut:

 He has youth (19), a great body, the fastball (velo and life) as a foundation for his prospect status. He can really sink the baseball. His combination of fastball velocity and heavy sink reminded some of former Blue Jay farmhand Henderson Alvarez, who has the 7th highest GB rate among MLB starters. His changeup is presently his best secondary offering and his curveball shows 12-6 tilt at its best, though it is inconsistent. Tinoco will need to improve his lower half in his delivery because he often collapses his front leg and falls off to the first base side, causing him to not get on top of his pitches. But he has the raw materials to emerge. Keep your eye on Tinoco.

   I asked Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, who has called games for both, about the validity of that comparison, and he disagrees:

  Alvarez was just a kid out there slinging it, and the natural movement was ridiculous. Tinoco is more of a pitcher. Tinoco also has a defined curve. Alvarez had a semblance of a slurve that he had no clue what to do with.

   To be fair to Longnecker, he may be thinking of a more current version of Alvarez, as I recall reports about him at that time spoke about his rawness, and the need to refine his command.

The Game

   Tinoco was making his third start for Lansing against a West Michigan lineup that included Tiger prospects Derek Hill and Joey Pankake.  He breezed through the first two innings, needing only 11 pitches in both to retire the side in order.  He threw first strikes to the first three batters he faced, and generated three groundball outs in that first inning.  In the second, he struck out Pankake swinging, and sauntered through a second three up-three down frame.
  Tinoco needed only 13 pitches to get through the 3rd, working down in the zone with almost every fastball that he threw, showing that heavy sinking action.  I had him throwing only 3 pitches up in the zone through those first three, and two of those were outside of the strike zone.  He allowed a bunt single that 3rd Baseman Justin Atkinson had no chance on, and was called for a balk on his first pitch to Hill as he failed to stop at the end of his stretch.  We began to see a bit more of his breaking ball in that 3rd inning.  He had six ground ball outs and a pair of swinging strikeouts through 3.
   The West Michigan hitters began waiting on Tinoco more in the 4th.  He did have great control of his slider, though, bending hitters' knees a bit at least twice.  He also gave up his first hard contact of the game, a hard line drive up the middle.  Tinoco needed 18 pitches to get through the inning.
   The 5th is where things fell apart for Tinoco.   With his pitch count up a bit, and with the West Michigan hitters getting their second look at him, they began teeing off on Tinoco's offerings.  He gave up a hard hit leadoff groundball on the first pitch that handcuffed 1st baseman Ryan McBroom and was generously scored a single, followed by a hard hit double down the 3rd base line on the next pitch.  McBroom made a nice play on a groundball after that, holding the runners at 2nd and 3rd, but the next batter cracked another double down the 3rd base line to score the runners.
   A flyball out to Left put Tinoco one out away from getting out of the inning, but he gave up more hard contact for another double (the fourth of the inning) to bring in the inning's' fourth run.  Tinoco got a swinging strikeout to end the inning.  He threw only 14 pitches in the frame - he lost the bottom part of the zone, which he had all but owned through the first four innings, and the West Michigan hitters hit his high-in-the-strike-zone pitches early in the count, and hard.
   Did Tinoco get rattled by McBroom's inability to cleanly field that first-pitch shot?  That's hard to say, but he did seem to lose his focus that inning.  He seemed to be trying to blow the ball by the West Michigan hitters, and he left the ball up as a result.  There have been reports that Tinoco sometimes collapses his front leg during his delivery, which causes him to fall off to the first base side, and leave his pitches up.  I couldn't tell if such was the case in the 5th - he was falling off toward 1st, but it was hard to tell from the angle we had if he was collapsing that leg or not.

   Now that he's in full season ball, there was no rescue from the bullpen for Tinoco in the 5th.  He was given the chance to pitch out of trouble, and was also allowed to come back out for the 6th, which, after giving up another first pitch, leadoff double to Pankake, he retired the next three hitters in order, needing only 7 pitches to finish the inning.

  There was a lot to like from this outing.  Take away that disastrous fifth, and you have a dominant performance.  Tinoco retired 6 of the first 8 hitters on groundballs, and had 8 groundouts (against 3 flyball outs) on the day.  He threw 74 pitches, 50 of them for strikes.  For the day, Tinoco went 6 innings, allowing 8 hits, 4 runs (all earned), no walks, and struck out 6.

   Is Tinoco a future big leaguer?  That's hard to say.  He has the long, lean (6'4", 190) frame that the Blue Jays covet in a pitcher.  He has struck out more than twice as many hitters as he has walked in his minor career, and he has almost 2.5 groundouts for every flyout.  The 26th-ranked Blue Jays prospect by Baseball America is only 20, but as a player in Low A, he's a long way away from the majors.  His fastball sits between 91-93, and has hit 95 - because he's around the plate so much, and since his velocity isn't necessarily premium, being down in the zone with that sinker is essential.  When he's not, 5th innings like today occur.  His hitter's heat map would seem to back that up:

MLBfarm.com

   

    That the Blue Jays skipped Tinoco from Bluefield to Lansing (bypassing Vancouver) says a lot about the organization's belief in his abilities.  Just turned 20, Tinoco is still learning, and making the transition from thrower to pitcher.  It will be interesting to watch his development.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week#4: Moving Day

  In the best case scenario, MLB farm departments like to give players at least two months of play to start the season at a level before they make a decision as to whether some players need to move on to the next level, or stay where they're at.  Sometimes, injuries and/or inconsistency at the top of the organization (that is, the major league team) can have a huge influence on this plan.

   This past weekend, it was almost dizzying to see how many roster moves were made as the Blue Jays had to overcome the placing of Jose Reyes on the 15-day Disabled List.  Jonathan Diaz was called up from Buffalo to take his place, which immediately left Buffalo a middle infielder short, so Kevin Nolan got the call in New Hampshire to come up and take his place.  Moving up from Dunedin to New Hampshire were Christian Lopes and Emilio Guerrero to provide some middle infield help.  Lopes was off to a slow start - he had a monster second half of the season in Australia this winter, until a hamstring injury ended his season and sent him home in time to heal for spring training.
  Another promotion to New Hampshire of note was that of  Tiago da Silva, the much traveled Brazilian reliever.
   Those moves all came on Friday.  On Saturday, with Scott Copeland recalled from Buffalo to make his MLB debut, Casey Lawrence was promoted from New Hampshire to the Bisons to take his place.  If Ryan Schimpf was moved up as well.  IF Dickie Joe Thon and P Justin Shafer were promoted from Lansing to Dunedin to shore up their roster.

     ************************************************************************

   Much has been made this weekend over the demotions of Daniel Norris, Dalton Pompey, and Miguel Castro.  They would not be the first rookies to ever struggle and need further time in the minors - that's part of the reason teams get three option years on players new to the 40-man roster.
I thought it would be worth a quick look to see exactly why all three had their difficulties this month.

Norris
Daniel Norris had a solid spring training, and while the injury to Marcus Stroman threw a monkey wrench into the team's pitching staff plans, Norris may have made the team as the 5th starter despite Stroman tearing up his knee.
Norris complained of going through a dead arm stretch in the middle of the month, but overall his velocity held firm between 91 and 93:

Brooksbaseball.net graph

    His last start against the Indians, when he was lifted after throwing 78 pitches in 3 innings, shows that he really didn't trust his changeup or sinker, and almost half of the pitches he threw were fastballs, which hitters mashed at a .407 clip.  Accompanying the increase in fourseam usage was quite a bump in the use of his slider, which he has had more success with.  Norris recorded only 3 swinging strikes in the Cleveland game, none with his fastball or sinker.  

   Is something physically wrong with Norris?  An MRI performed on April 21 revealed no structural damage to his elbow.  It is worth noting that Norris had bone chips removed from his left elbow after last season, and he was shut down for a month in 2013 as a precaution.  He also admits to having gone through a dead arm phase last season (he did get dinged in a couple of early July starts at AA), and the stress of spring training may have worn him out a bit:

“My workload in spring training was — I was working really hard, trying to make this team and maybe that’s catching up to me a little bit right now, but I think I’m on the tail end of it. I’m feeling better,” 

  Whatever the case is, Norris is not the dominant pitcher who raced through four levels last year. Time in Buffalo may be necessary for him to re-discover himself in a less pressure-filled environment.  He makes his first start for the Bisons on Wednesday.

Pompey

   The GTA product struggled on both sides of the ball this month.  His difficulties at the plate weren't all that surprising, but his troubles in the field were.  He misjudged some fly balls, and took curious routes on others.  The former Minor League gold glove winner was supposed to be more dependable than that.  That, coupled with his .193/.264/.337 line caused the Blue Jays to send him to Buffalo for some time to re-group.

  Quite simply, Pompey is way better than what he has shown.  He may have been pressing too much, especially during the 10 game home stand, when he likely was inundated with interview and ticket requests, and didn't have enough time to prepare and focus on baseball.
  Again, injuries may have forced the issue here.  Michael Saunders knee surgery meant a temporary halt to what likely would have been a platoon between Pompey and Kevin Pillar.  Instead, Pompey was thrown into the deep end, and when he lost his centerfield spot to Pillar, he no doubt took his fielding woes to the plate, and vice-versa.

  Pompey will be back.  

Castro

   His inclusion on the Jays roster was perhaps the biggest surprise of all coming out of spring training.  Castro simply made it impossible for the Blue Jays to send him down, and given that hey showed a distaste for crop of available free agent relievers, that may have been their hope all along.

His performance over his last ten outings has been spotty:

DATE     OPP                            W            L              ERA        SV           IP            H             ER           BB           SO

04/12/2015         @BAL    0              0              0.00        1              1.0          1              0              1              0

04/14/2015         TB           0              1              0.00        0              1.1          2              0              1              2

04/17/2015         ATL         0              0              0.00        0              1.0          0              0              1              0

04/18/2015         ATL         0              0              1.23        0              1.0          2              1              0              1

04/22/2015         BAL        0              0              1.04        1              1.1          1              0              1              1

04/23/2015         BAL        0              0              1.93        1              0.2          1              1              0              1

04/25/2015         @TB       0              0              2.79        0              0.1          2              1              0              0

04/27/2015         @BOS   0               1               3.60        0              0.1          3              1              0              1

05/01/2015         @CLE     0              0              3.27        0              1.0          1              0              0              2

05/03/2015         @CLE     0              0              4.38        0              1.1          2              2              2              2

TOTALS                                  0              2              5.79        3              9.1          15           6              6              10

 I  had originally thought that Castro's troubles might have resulted from wearing down as a result of overuse in high leverage situations, but his velocity has been fairly consistent:

                                             Game                           Fourseam     Sinker   Change Slider

TOR@NYA (4/6/15)         97.50     97.94     86.31     82.20

TOR@NYA (4/8/15)         97.08     0.00        89.32     0.00

TOR@NYA (4/9/15)         97.18     0.00        91.21     83.79

TOR@BAL (4/12/15)        97.19     0.00        88.87     82.37

TBA@TOR (4/14/15)       98.08     0.00        0.00        83.66

ATL@TOR (4/17/15)        98.73     0.00        89.92     82.58

ATL@TOR (4/18/15)        97.11     97.45     87.56     83.84

BAL@TOR (4/22/15)        97.40     0.00        86.16     84.81

BAL@TOR (4/23/15)        96.01     0.00        0.00        81.97

TOR@TBA (4/25/15)       95.63     0.00        84.96     81.02

TOR@BOS (4/27/15)       96.89     96.84     88.16     82.12

TOR@CLE (5/1/15)           96.95     96.50     89.37     81.75

TOR@CLE (5/3/15)           96.45     97.00     89.10     83.28

   His fastball velo is down a bit from that peak against Atlanta, Quite simply, he's caught too much of the plate at times:

And when he's done so, it's most often been with his fastball or sinker.  Hitters have been laying off of his change and slider, forcing him to come with the heat - and hitters have been ready.

  The concern all along for Castro has been his lack of secondary pitches.  However, Aaron Sanchez came in and was lights out throwing primarily the fourseam/sinker combination last year.  Castro needs to work on his command in Buffalo.  Just as I was about to hit the 'publish' button, GM Alex Anthopoulos said that Castro will pitch out of the Bisons' starting rotation.  Which makes me wonder if we will see him again this season.  

  And you have to feel happy for Steve Delabar, who joins Chad Jenkins as they pass Castro and Copeland headed the opposite way on the QEW.  Delabar was very upset that he didn't make the club coming out of spring training.  Delabar seemed to have most of his old velo back, but I suspect a rough outing late in March against the Orioles, and the fact that he had options (and Liam Hendriks and Todd Redmond didn't) remaining sealed his fate.

  Bisons Manager Gary Allenson used Delabar very sparingly in the early going, giving him several days off between outings, and not using him in high leverage situations.  As April turned into May, Allenson began going to Delabar more often, and later in games.  He's appeared in 6 games since April 22nd, and five of those have been scoreless outings.  

   There's no real secret to Delabar's struggles in 2014, after an All Star year in 2013.  By his own admission, Delabar relies on velocity, and not movement, to get hitters out.  His fastball lost a tick last year, as did his ability to command it, and hitters were waiting for him.  If he's back to a more reasonable facsimile of his 2013 self, as opposed to last year's version, he should be a stabilizing force in the Blue Jays pen.  Of course, with options remaining, he could be in Toronto only until Castro turns himself around. 

   Jenkins should probably get ready to ride that QEW shuffle some more.  Until the rotation straightens itself out, the Blue Jays appear to be relying on whichever starter is up next for Buffalo to help in long relief.

 I can't let an opportunity pass without a final word about LHP Ricky Romero, released by the club last week.  Romero was the darling of Toronto in 2011, anointed the staff ace, and given a huge multi-year contract.  With the Blue Jays on the hook for 2016 for a $7.5 million salary, they exercised a $600 000 buyout to get out from under that deal.  They also did it early enough in the season to give him a chance to catch on with another team.

  Romero's troubles started in 2012, when hitters started to lay off of his change up, a pitch with so much movement that it often fell right out of the strike zone.  Injuries caused a drop in velocity, meaning that Romero often had to come in with a sub-par fastball in hitters' counts.  

  He struggled through a pair of seasons after that in which he simply wasn't healthy.  Surgically repaired and ready to go this spring, I had no reports about him, but that the club kept him behind in extended after training camp broke tells you much of what you need to know.  He wasn't ready to return to competition, and the Blue Jays obviously felt his MLB days were behind him.

  Several people on Twitter complained that the Blue Jays wrecked Romero, but that's far from accurate.  Their handling of him in 2013, when they kept him behind in Florida for all of one FSL start after spring training before rushing him up for a start that he clearly wasn't prepared for was puzzling, but the organization has been patient with him.  Hitters adjusted to Romero, and either because of health or an inability to make corresponding adjustments himself, Romero was no longer an effective starting pitcher by the end of 2012.   

     ************************************************************************

In summary, many eyebrows were raised when the Blue Jays broke camp with 6 rookies.  Some of that number was by design, some by accident, but the bottom line is that the Blue Jays felt that half dozen was a better option than the alternative.  And while Castro, Norris, and Pompey needed to be farmed out, the contributions from Devon Travis, Roberto Osuna, and even Aaron Sanchez, in that order, have been significant.  To me, this is just an extension of the roll the dice strategy the team has used in drafting players:  the upside of this group is such that given the injuries to Stroman and Saunders, the club felt that it was a worthwhile risk.  Did they expect that all six of them would instantly adjust?  Probably not.  If such was the case, the demoted trio would likely still be with the team.  The season is still young enough that it's not lost, and if these three can get themselves back together, they could still make a contribution to the team before the season is over.

A Look at Matt Boyd

    I took pen and paper in hand, and watched Blue Jays left hand pitcher Matt Boyd make a start against the Trenton Thunder last week, and came up with some observations.

   First off, a disclaimer - I am not a scout, nor do I pretend to be one.  I was watching Boyd not from behind home plate in Trenton, but on my laptop at my kitchen table somewhere north of Toronto.
My view gave me a good idea of what Boyd's command and ability to repeat his delivery was like, but not his velocity (unless the Trenton play-by-play guys happened to mention it, and they didn't very often), or the movement on his fastball.

   A few notes about Boyd.
-the Mercer Island, WA product grew up a Mariners fan, and idolized Randy Johnson.
-Boyd grew up playing both baseball and hockey; he jokingly calls himself a "defenceman enforcer,' but he was good enough to make a Team USA regional team.  Many of his teammates went on to play in college or the WHL.
-he boasts a pair of famous people in his family tree:  former First Lady Dolly Madison, and Hall of Famer pitcher Bob Feller.  Now, in the case of Feller, it was a distant connection; it's not like he grew up on Feller's knee being regaled with tales of him striking out DiMaggio and Williams.
-he pitched out of the bullpen and played 1st at Oregon State for his first three college seasons, before being converted to a starter in his senior year.  Boyd led the Beavers to the College World Series that year, tossing a complete game four-hit shutout in the second round.
-the Blue Jays took Boyd in the 6th round of the 2013 draft
-Boyd had an April and May that was the equal of Daniel Norris' and Kendall Graveman's last year, and earned a June promotion to New Hampshire.  A foot injury, and maybe being overwhelmed a bit led to his being sent back to High A, where he pitched well, but bone chips in his elbow limited his effectiveness in August.
-Boyd has reportedly been working with pitching consultant Kyle Boddy.  Boddy runs Driveline Baseball, a company which provides, according to its website, "Proven, researched training systems for developing healthy, high-velocity pitchers of any age," based near Tacoma.  Completely healthy and recovered from last year's injuries, Boyd's increase in velocity this spring may be attributable to the work he's done with Boddy.


   The start I saw was an April 20th outing.  The game time temperature was a reasonable 69F.
This was his third start of the season.  In the prior two, he had struck out 18 batters in 9.1 innings.
Here is my charting of his pitches:

   Boyd has a high leg kick, and a slight hitch in his delivery that likely can make it hard for left handed hitters to pick up the ball from.  As you can see from my scrawls, he threw all four of his pitches, mainly relying on his fastball to get ahead on the count, which he mostly did - Boyd threw first pitch strikes to 10 of 18 hitters, and was working in pitchers' counts much of the time.  He had 6 1-2 counts on hitters, and threw 54 of his 81 pitches on the night for strikes.
 
   Boyd has a reputation for being a pitcher who relies on his command of all four pitches and his feel for pitching to get hitters out.  He lives on the black of the plate, and if he is having command issues with any of his pitches, he can struggle to throw strikes.  On this occasion, he seemed to be having some trouble with his slider, leaving it well up in the zone.  As a result, hitters tended to be able to foul off borderline pitches, as evidenced by a couple of long at bats in the early going that drove up his pitch count.  He just wasn't able to put those hitters away, and he reached his pitch count by the end of the 5th as a result.
   Boyd didn't give up a hit in this outing, and the loudest contact of the night against him was a long fly ball that just landed outside of the right field foul pole in the 2nd.  His advanced feel for pitching allowed him to know what was working for him that night, and his athleticism allowed him to repeat his delivery frequently enough that he could command his fastball pretty much throughout his outing.
  Boyd is said to have an excellent pick off move, but he didn't really need to use his best one in this game.  I should also add that C A.J. Jimenez, who was activated just before this start (and now is in Buffalo) was a big help to Boyd in the early going, showing framing and blocking skills that I've admired for some time.
   Al Skorupa of Baseball Prospectus watched a recent start of Boyd's (it may have been this one), and he came away less than impressed.  Skorupa claims that Boyd's fastball isn't "big enough, his command is below average, and there's no out pitch."  At the same time, he admired how Boyd overcame some early control issues to limit the damage.  Skorupa does like Boyd's slider, calling it a future average pitch.  He did like what he saw of Boyd's change up, as did I on the night in question - he had some good movement on it.
 

   Is Boyd a potential major league pitcher?  His projection always has been back of the rotation, but he has pitched above that benchmark in three minor league seasons.  In addition to not being a scout, I'm also not a journalist, so I don't always have to be objective.  I've spoken with Boyd on Twitter a few times, and he seems like a very mature and level-headed kid.  It's hard not to pull for someone like that, and while I'm not sure what his ultimate future holds, I think he can establish himself as a major league pitcher down the road. Boyd may likely be one of those players who has to ride the options shuttle for a few seasons before he sticks, but he's a left handed pitcher who has shown an ability to miss bats - he's struck out better than a batter per inning over 180 minor league innings. While he doesn't have the power arm profile for the bullpen like the Jays prefer, with Randy Wolf, Andrew Albers, and maybe even Scott Copeland ahead of him on the depth charts (maybe even Felix Doubront, come to think of it), Boyd could help in long relief, or as a secondary lefty option to Aaron Loup.
     I like what his college coach, Pat Casey, had to say about him, and I think it neatly sums Matt Boyd up:

“When you coach young men—and it’s difficult enough, but he’s a no-maintenance guy,” Casey said of Boyd. “He takes care of everything. He goes to school, does well in school, trains. He’s the guy you never have to worry about. He’s just easy to coach; he’s just a great kid . . . And he’s just—he’s a really fun kid to coach and he’s a great man.”

Clutchlings Notebook - Week Three

  All four Blue Jays minor league affiliates are well underway with their seasons, so I thought I would narrow my focus a bit and take a look at some players worth keeping an eye on in the system - players who, as you move down the system, may not make an appearance and/or an impact for the big league club this year, but have a chance to get there at some point.

Buffalo
   The Bisons are a veteran team, but are well worth the trip down the QEW to watch, sitting atop the International League north standings.
  At the moment, there are not a lot of players who could reasonably be called prospects - the Bisons roster is filled more with injury insurance guys.
   Of the players who fit that prospect category, C A.J. Jimenez and IF Andy Burns would be the most worth watching.  The oft-injured Jimenez had his season debut delayed by yet another stint on the DL, but after starting at New Hampshire, he's now in Buffalo.  I watched him catch Matt Boyd's start on April 20th, and there's so much to like about him as a receiver.  Jimenez is quick and athletic, and blocks balls in the dirt well.  He's already a good framer of pitches, and helped Boyd immensely on a night when he was fighting his command with his breaking pitches a bit.  The question mark, in addition to his ability to stay healthy, is his bat.  If not for his injury, however, he may have gotten the call over Josh Thole when Dioner Navarro went on the DL. Jimenez will make a fine defense-first catcher, but his bat may limit the extent of his role on a big league club one day.
   Burns is a 3B/SS who was being groomed as a super utility player, but has played mostly 3rd and 2nd this year.  He started with New Hampshire, but was promoted to the Bisons and went 4-4 in his first game.  Burns got off to a slow start at AA last year, and I had originally thought he might be a September call up at the outset of the 2014 season.  He's another one of those overlooked guys the Blue Jays have loved to draft over the last half decade.  He had to sit out his senior NCAA season after transferring from Kentucky to Arizona, but the Jays didn't forget about him, and took him in the 11th round in 2011.
   At 27, Scott Copeland can no longer be considered a prospect, but since last August, he's placed himself on the radar.  As I write this, he went 5 strong innings for Buffalo tonight, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits, walking 3 and striking out 1 - and this has been one of his poorer outings, the first one where he hasn't at least pitched into the 6th.  Copeland, of course, is not a strikeout per inning guy.  He averages over 2.5 groundouts for every fly ball out.  He just doesn't give up a lot of hard contact:

   Of course, the only way we'll likely see Copeland is if there is an injury situation, and/or a complete meltdown of the major league rotation.  And vets like Randy Wolf and maybe Andrew Albers, Jeff Francis, or possibly even Felix Doubront might get the call before him.  At the same time, what Copeland has done since arriving in Buffalo late last season is get hitters out, posting a 1.80 ERA in 7 starts over the last two seasons, and allowing just 27 hits in 45 innings.

New Hampshire
   Boyd is the obvious pick here, but he's not the only one.  I've written before that he had a better April and May than Daniel Norris or Kendall Graveman last year, before running into some injury issues that weren't enough to sideline him, but limited his effectiveness over the last half of the year.
  I have a more detailed post coming up later this week about him, but Boyd is well worth watching.  Like Copeland, he's not necessarily a power arm, although he had added velo this year.  He relies more on command and his feel for pitching.  At the same time, Boyd's 30 K's are just 3 off the minor league lead.  It's best to see him soon if you're thinking of making a trip east to see him, because he may be in Buffalo by June if he continues to pitch as well as he has.
   Dwight Smith Jr is making quite a name for himself as a hitter.  The Blue Jays tried experimenting with him at 2nd in the Arizona Fall League and in spring training, because his bat doesn't really have the power to profile as a corner outfielder.  He put up solid numbers in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and has continued to rake in AA, hitting .324/.361/.485.  Smith has hit in the 2nd spot in New Hampshire's order, and has benefitted immensely from having vets Jake Fox and KC Hobson behind him the lineup.  If speedster Jon Berti can get on base more frequently ahead of Smith in the order, he'll see even more fastballs.  With Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar ahead of him, there's no spot in the majors for Smith at the moment, but he should join Boyd in Buffalo in a few weeks.

Dunedin
   The D-Jays have a young lineup, and have had trouble showing much consistency so far.
Dawel Lugo and Mitch Nay have potential impact bats, but have struggled.  Roemon Fields may be the fastest player in the organization, but he has had trouble getting on base.
    LHP Jairo Labourt has alternated good outings with not-so-good ones so far this year.  Walks have been his nemesis as they were in his abbreviated stint in the Midwest League last year.  He's been missing bats and the strike zone at almost the same rate.  RHP Alberto Tirado has been sent to the bullpen in an attempt to harness his electric stuff, and for the most part, it's been working.  There's just not a lot of projection for a bullpen guy in High A.
   Dunedin is very much a work in progress.  Almost all of the info I get on them is second hand, of course, because there's no milb.tv coverage of the Florida State League, and the D-Jays play in front of a couple thousand empy seats every night.

Lansing
   This is the must-see team in the organization, and thanks to milb.tv, you can see them a fair amount, although not at home.
   Any discussion about this team now starts with Anthony Alford, the two sport star who is as fabulous a story as he is an athlete.  I've written a few thousand words about him, so please go back through my archives and have a look.
   The Reader's Digest Alford story:  A Mississippi all-state baseball and football star, small-town Alford was one of the nation's top football recruits in 2012, and the Blue Jays took him with their 3rd round pick, even though he had a scholarship to Southern Miss in hand.  He was labelled a 3rd rounder with first round talent - a story making the rounds recently is that the Blue Jays area scout for MS gave him the highest grade of any prospect in that year's draft class.
   Alford was involved in a campus incident in which a gun was pulled (not by him) after his freshman year, and he had his scholarship lifted.  Alford then enrolled at Ole Miss, and had to sit out a year due to transfer rules. He continued to report to the Blue Jays minor league complex in Florida after spring football, but his seasons were always cut short by the need to head back to campus in August, meaning that he had amassed just over 100 PAs over his first three minor league seasons.
   The Blue Jays offered Alford much of Front Street to give up football this past summer, but he declined.
Suddenly, in late September, he left Ole Miss, and announced his intention to give up his gridiron dreams.  I talked to him via Twitter about it, and while he didn't come right out and say it, Alford suggested that he initially went with football because he felt pressured to do so.  Football is King in Mississippi, and it's completely understandable that a young, impressionable young man would feel an obligation to pursue it if he was blessed with such talent.  Somehow, someone said something this fall that lifted the world off of his shoulders, and it convinced him that it was okay for him to make the switch to his first love of baseball, and he reported to Florida for Instructional League play.
   In order to get him some more ABs, the Blue Jays sent him to play in the Australian Baseball League this winter.  The veteran ABL pitchers with their breaking pitches often tied Alford up in knots, and he admitted that he got into a lot of unfavourable hitters' counts.  The experience seems to have paid off however, as had the time he spent with the Blue Jays in spring training (he said Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson made the biggest impression on him).  He spent some time this month on Lansing's DL with a knee issue, but he's been bashing since his return this past week, hitting .364/.417/.500 in 5 games with the Lugs.  The highlight of his week had to be the night he scored on a sacrifice fly - from 2nd base.
   I asked Lansing broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler about what has impressed him the most about Alford, and he said his AB's have been a study in patience, often working into 2-2 or 3-2 counts.  Unlike in Australia, when he widened his strike zone considerably with two strikes,  Goldberg-Strassler says that Alford looks like a very comfortable two-strike hitter.  And Alford's also not trying to pull the ball - he's hitting the ball up the middle and to right field.  All of these are signs of rapidly improving pitch recognition.
   I don't want to get ahead of myself, but Alford could be the best position player in the organization very soon.
    But Alford is not the only prospect on display in the Michigan State Capital. Among the others:

-1B Rowdy Tellez -  a power-hitting first baseman who has transformed his formerly chunky body.  The Midwest League is a tough home runs hitter's loop because of its parks with high outfield walls and the April and May winds that always seem to be knocking fly balls down, but I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of power numbers Tellez produces for Lansing.

-1B/DH/OF Ryan McBroom  The 15th round pick from last year's draft has mostly hit behind Tellez in the Lugnuts order, and pretty much all he has done is hit.  The power hasn't shown up just yet, but he's posted an impressive .323/.408/.418 line.

-OF DJ Davis  Davis is repeating Low A after failing to make much contact last year, striking out in 32% of his PAs.  And his vaunted speed didn't translate into a high stolen base total, as he was thrown out more times (20) than he wasn't (19).  Davis is making betting contact so far this season, and is hitting .302/.397/.444.

-C Danny Jansen When he's healthy and finally activated, Max Pentecost may ascend to the majors faster, but Jansen may well prove to be the Blue Jays catcher of the future.  He's had a slow start at the plate, but his bat has started to come around, and word has spread around the MWL that Jansen is tough to run on.

-RHP Chase De Jong  De Jong is repeating Lansing as well, and with the exception of his last start, appears to be on track for a mid-season promotion to Dunedin.  De Jong struck out 9 in his first start, but he's more of a finesse pitcher who relies on finesse and command. Which he didn't have in his most recent outing, and gave up a pair of homers.

-RHP Sean Reid-Foley The 2014 2nd round steal is perhaps the highest-ceiling member of Lansing's rotation.  On a shorter pitch count leash than his teammates at this point, Reid-Foley has struck out 13 in only 7 innings over 3 starts.

-SS Richard Urena Jose Reyes' potential successor, the 19 year old has held his own at the plate so far, hitting .241/.274/.345, and playing stellar defence.  Some have labelled his glove major league ready.  A switch hitter, Urena's bat from the right side has always been a concern, and he's struggled against lefties so far.

-LHP Shane Dawson The soft-tossing Drayton Valley, AB (as far as I can tell, only two minor leaguers come from a more northerly location than Dawson), southpaw relies on deception to get hitters out, which he's been doing at a healthy clip.  Shoulder injuries have sidelined Dawson each of the past two years, but he is fully recovered, and should move up to Dunedin at some point this season.  MWL hitters are currently hitting a paltry .113 against him.

  Other names due to soon get an assignment to a full-season team:  2015 1st rounder Jeff Hoffman, almost a year removed from Tommy John surgery; 2014 2nd rounder Clinton Hollon, and possible lefty Matt Smoral, who I thought was a lock for Lansing, but struggled this spring and was kept behind for extended spring training.

Clutchlings Notebook - Week 2

   Here's a wrap of the week that was in the Toronto Blue Jays minor league system:

Buffalo (6-1)
   The week got off to a bizarre start for the Bisons when their Monday game with Pawtucket that was suspended by rain and moved to Tuesday to completed as part of a doubleheader.  The second game of that set, in turn, was postponed by a power failure.
   Buffalo lost that suspended game, but then ran off six wins in a row, culminating with a sweep of Lehigh Valley when the Bisons went into the botton of the 9th trailing 4-1,  to close their home stand.
   Jeff Francis pitched five innings of shut out ball in the first game of the Wednesday twin bill, and fellow Canadian Andrew Albers responded with six frames of runless ball in the night cap.  Scott Copeland followed that up with a sparkling 7 innings the next day, allowing only one run on three hits.  Randy Wolf and Chad Jenkins each had strong starts over the weekend.
   With Colt Hynes needing some rest, he was optioned to Buffalo, and Francis was recalled to take his place.  Francis' great week continued with four innings of scoreless relief for the Blue Jays on Sunday.
  Andy Burns was promoted from New Hampshire, and was a scintillating 4-4 in his International League debut on Friday.

New Hampshire (1-6)
   The Fisher Cats got off to a good start by beating Reading to start the week, but then promptly lost their next six games in a row.
   Matt Boyd struck out 9 batters over 5 innings for the second straight start.  Scoring runs has become a bit of a challenge for New Hampshire.  Leadoff hitter Jon Berti was supposed to be a table setter, but has struggled at the plate.  Dwight Smith Jr has been hitting, on the other hand, and closed the week at .317.  A.J. Jimenez was activated from the disabled list to the Fisher Cats, and was in the lineup this weekend.

Dunedin (3-4)
   The D-Jays had a win one/lose one pattern for the week.
Jairo Labourt couldn't get out of the first inning in his start on Monday, but redeemed himself with 8Ks in 4 innings on Saturday.
  Scoring runs has been an issue for Dunedin as well, having been shut out in back to back games against Bradenton.

Lansing (5-2)
  It was a great week for the Lugnuts, who we were able to see a fair amount of during their series with Great Lakes, thanks to milb.tv.
   Lansing had a six game winning streak snapped during that series, the day after winning a 16-inning marathon against the Loons.  Great Lakes, wanting to save what was left of their bullpen, sent a position player in to pitch the top of the 16th, and he served up a two run homer to Rowdy Tellez.
   Conner Greene and Sean Reid-Foley made their full season debuts this week, and pitched well.  Greene struck out 5 in as many innings while surrendering only one run, while Reid-Foley K'd 6 in 3 scoreless innings in his debut.  Greene is piggybacking with Alonzo Gonzalez for the first part of the season, while Reid-Foley is working in tandem with Justin Shafer.
   Starlyn Suriel and Shane Dawson were dominant in their piggyback start in the extra inning game.  Suriel is not a big guy, and doesn't overpower hitters, but relies on movement and location.  Dawson, who missed much of last year, seems to be getting his velocity going, as he hit 92 in his appearance.
   Dan Jansen has shown fine receiving skills, but has struggled at the plate.  He made his first MWL hit a memorable one, though, hitting one over the left field wall at Great Lakes.
   Much has been made of DJ Davis.  The first round pick from 2012 is repeating Low A, and I was concerned about his pitch selection in the at bats I saw him have this week.  He seems to take pitches in the zone, and swing at a lot of pitches outside of the zone.  At the same time, he reached base in the Lugs first 10 games.  In the outfield, his speed allows him to cover a great deal of ground, and he hauled in several drives against Great Lakes that at first looked like they were headed for extra bases.  Davis still needs to cut down on the Ks (15 in his first 45 PAs), but I still want to give him a bit more time.  Davis was one of the youngest players taken in his draft year, and that and the fact that he played his HS ball in Mississippi means that his developmental curve may be longer than most.


Notes
  I asked Lugnuts broadcaster Jesse Goldberg-Strassler when he thinks Anthony Alford will return from injury, and he thinks the speedy outfielder will be back by the end of the month.
  I also was in contact with Canadian pitcher Jordan Romano, who was reportedly hitting 95 on the gun earlier in spring training, before suffering a torn UCL.  Romano had Tommy John surgery performed by Dr James Andrew on March 30th, and while he's still wearing a brace, he has already started rehab.
  Jeff Hoffman is slowly building up his innings as he approaches the first anniversary of his Tommy John surgery.  He threw two innings in an intrasquad game at extended spring training, hitting 97 on the gun.  If all continues to go well, Hoffman should pitch in a game that counts, likely at Lansing or Dunedin, by mid-May.

A Look at Chase De Jong

      

The Toronto Blue Jays have become well known for drafting and developing a certain type of pitcher since Alex Anthopoulos took over as GM in 2009, and overhauled the scouting department:  tall, lean, and athletic.

  The Blue Jays are not married to that concept, and as Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna (although he's radically transformed his body since Tommy John surgery) have proven, they can scout outside of that box, but for every Stroman, there's an Aaron Sanchez and a Miguel Castro, and for every Osuna there's a Jeff Hoffman, Matt Smoral, and a Sean Reid-Foley.
    The reasoning for scouring the hemisphere for this type of pitcher is understandable.  The length allows them to develop a downward plane of their fastballs, which causes the hitter to have to change his focus during the ball's flight to home plate, creating a greater margin of error for a swing and miss, or weak contact.  Tall pitchers (like Castro and Sanchez, especially) can create a bit of an optical illusion because of their extension that hitters call "late life"; hitters have a fraction of a second less to track Castro's fastball, so it appears to "jump" on them because the ball is on them sooner than they realize.
   The lean body type allows the pitcher to have a lower-maintenance physique, which is less prone to injury, and more able to handle the wear and tear of a heavy workload.  One of the few negative things scouts had to say about Osuna was his formerly chunky build.  Medical science is still learning about the factors that precipitate torn ulnar collateral ligaments, but surely an untuned body has to be one.  A heavier pitcher may not necessarily have the musculature to support that weight during the course of repeating a pitching motion thousands of times during a season.
   The athleticism allows the pitcher to repeat his delivery consistently, and maintain a consistent arm slot for their deliveries, while maintaining a bit of deception for the hitters.  At times, a prospect like Daniel Norris comes into the organization with mechanics that are not optimal, but their athletic ability allows them to learn a new way to throw the ball, as well as the confidence to see them through the inevitable setbacks they will encounter as a result.  Athleticism also allows the pitcher to land in a good position to field any balls that come their way.

    I had the opportunity, thanks to milb.tv, to watch Chase De Jong's start this week against Great Lakes.  De Jong, taken in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft, fits the bill for this prototypical Toronto type of pitcher, at 6'4", 205.  Even though he's repeating the Midwest League, there's a great deal to be enthused about, given this start, and the one he threw the week before.  Here's a scouting report from prior to his draft year:

A USC commit, DeJong sits in the high 80s, topping out in low 90s. With a lot of projection left in there, Dejong looks to throw much harder as he fills out his tall, lean frame. He already possesses a hard curve with bite and feel for a changeup and he looks to be a smart pitcher who pounds the strike zone. He works downhill well, getting over his front side, and has an easy arm, remaining very balanced throughout. While not an exceptional talent at the moment, DeJong is the kind of high school arm that could be a completely different pitcher in two years thanks to more physical development and experience in the minors. He isn't the flashiest high school prospect, but has some of the higher upside in the class and shows a good balance of present skills and projectability.  He has the potential to be a solid starter, with the potential for three above average to plus pitches.

   The Blue Jays rolled the dice with De Jong, as they have with so many other picks in the Anthopoulos era.  Because of his USC pledge, De Jong was considered a tough sign - his father is a medical doctor, and his mother is a M. Ed. holder and a middle school guidance counsellor, and some teams obviously felt that education would come first, causing him to drop from a likely sandwich round pick to the 81st overall.  A $620 000 signing bonus offer helped to talk him out of his college commitment.
    De Jong made his pro debut in 2012, and after a pair of promising campaigns in rookie ball, skipped Vancouver and was sent to Lansing for full season ball last year.  And to put it mildly, he struggled.  After a rough April, De Jong seemed to be putting things together in May, but scuffled for much of the rest of the season before being shut down in early August.  Around the plate much of the time, De Jong gave up 113 hits in 97 innings, but walked only 22.
   Understandably, the Blue Jays wanted De Jong to repeat Lansing this season.  Since he barely tops 90 with his fastball and relies on his command, the organization has had him working on a two seamer to get some more movement on his fastball.  His first start of the season showcased the new pitch, as he struck out 9 Lake County hitters before leaving after reaching his pitch count with two out in the 5th on Lansing's Opening Day.
   The camera angle at Great Lakes provides an excellent view of the pitcher from center field, but isn't at a high enough angle to show movement.  De Jong, as is his custom, was around the plate for much of his five inning stint.  He had trouble commanding his curve at times, throwing it up in the zone.  His four seamer also tended to float a bit up in the strike zone, but he owned the bottom half with his two seamer, and while he wasn't as dominant as he was in his first start, De Jong still was impressive, allowing a run on three hits, while walking one and striking out five.
   De Jong has a smooth, easy delivery, and consistently repeats it.  He lands in a good fielding position.  Since he doesn't overpower, command and movement will be the keys to any hopes he has of advancing in the organization.  While velocity and missing a lot of bats advances prospects faster, Mark Buehrle proves that there's a lot to be said for changing speeds, command, and guile.

                                **********************************************

  I also got my first look at Catcher Danny Jansen, and while he's struggled with the bat like many of his young teammates have, I can understand the rave reviews he's earned for his skills behind the plate.
   A big target at 6'2", 210 lbs, Jansen is an effective framer of pitches already, and that skill will only improve as he learns his Lansing pitching staff better.  He is a good blocker of balls in the dirt, and is surprisingly agile for a kid his size.  Jansen gets out to field choppers, bunts, and slow rollers very well.  He handles pitchers well, and has been a contributor to De Jong's success, catching both of his starts so far. Jansen has yet to record his first MWL hit after 18 PA's, but he has hit everywhere he's played, so that may only be a matter of time.  And four walks are included in that total, so he's showing some good strike zone judgement. Max Pentecost may reach the majors before Jansen, but there's a lot to like with this just-turned 20 year old.